SB Nation User Blog: Achilles

Pregame Guesses: Washington

Achilles — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:54:59 -0000

Welcome to November ...

The Bruins entered October undefeated and fans here and elsewhere were lamenting why we weren't ranked while poring over the schedule, trying to decide if a trip to San Diego for a bowl game was possible or would we have to settle for El Paso, Texas.

October was an 0-5 disaster, capped by an Orange and Black beating in Corvallis on Halloween night. But Bruins fans are nothing if not resilient -- if you weren't resilient you'd be in an institution by now -- and the second half of the Oregon State game gave the half full segment of the Blue and Gold club something to build on as Kevin Prince discovered Nelson Rosario and Rosario discovered those things on the end of his arms called hands.

The questions I have is:

Has it come to this?

Are we reduced to clinging to "great fourth quarters against Oregon State" as a sign the the team has turned another corner?

Or is the corner we turned just another sign that we're going around in circles?

Seriously, is there any indication that November will be better than October? Will we have something to be thankful for come Thanksgiving or will the Halloween fright last the rest of the season?

Most importantly, will I ever stop asking these lame rhetorical questions?

I'm going to be right up; front with my answer to most of these:

I really don't see anything that tells me we're going to start playing better. We might, sure. But I've yet to see anything resembling consistency on both sides of the ball and without that, it's tough to have confidence.

This lack of consistency is perhaps the thing that's bothering me the most. Early in the season, the defense played well and saved the offense. It's easy to just chalk it up to Crompton but the defense did have a couple of great series to preserve the Tennessee win. (It's weird to actually type the word "win.") Somewhere along the line, the defense regressed and, yes, it might have something to do with the fact that the competition just got better. On the other side of the ball, we've yet to see anything resembling a 60 minute performance all year long.

Do I sound a little frustrated? You bet, I'm frustrated.

Writing these posts are supposed to be fun, there supposed to be a cool little warm up to another exciting Saturday. But a five game losing streak turns even a goofy little blog post into a chore. It would be a lot more fun to wax semi-poetic about another win or at least another exciting game. Instead, we're left to make lemonade out of another performance marred by inopportune penalties, delays getting the play in from the sideline, conservative coaching decisions and a scoreboard deficit.

But I'm not giving up. I knew -- like many of you knew -- that this was going to be rebuilding season. I didn't realize that progress would be so incremental that we'd be looking for sliver linings in fourth quarter comebacks that fall short, but that's the hand we've been dealt -- and the metaphor I badly mixed.

Here's to November ... and the Washington Pregame Guesses:

Who will rush for more yards on Saturday, Jake Locker or Derrick Coleman?
Name a Bruin who will score a touchdown.
Which team will kick off to start the second half?

Bonus Question:

We're thinking about doing the guesses for the basketball season. Do you guys (and gals) want to keep playing? I'm not exactly sure I'll have time to write a guesses post for every game and more importantly I don't know if hicaliber wants to total the scores, but if we can get it together on our end, do you want to keep playing? Just write Yes or No as the fourth answer in your subject line.

Pregame Guesses: Oregon State

Achilles — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 18:43:14 -0000

More photos » by Rick Bowmer - AP

Scary Quiz

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Apologies in advance: As I noted in this Fan Post, I'm swamped at work trying to sell caskets to college students. These kids never want to plan ahead.

So, this week's guesses post will be short and sweet.

And that's not a reference to Jacquizz Rodgers.

For the first time all season, I don't feel good about a game.

I wasn't necessarily sure that we would win any other game on the schedule, but I felt we had a pretty good shot.

This one is bugging me a bit.

Oregon State seems tailor made to give us fits, especially with the running of Jacquizz. They routed us last season. They're coming off a loss. We're on the road. It's their homecoming.

That said, we need the win, especially if we're going to reach the 6-6 mark. (At some point, I'd like to bring the "progress" idea up to the top for discussion. I was going to do it in this post, but I realized that I didn't want to miss the discussion with the guesses. So, next week ... )

Score aside, I'm hoping for some small things. I want to see us tackle well. I'd like to see us throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver. I'd like to see us force some turnovers.

Again, sorry for the brevity -- we'll do more for Washington next week.

Here are the Pregame Guesses for Oregon State:

How many passes will Richard Brehaut attempt?
True or False ... Milton Knox gets more than three carries.
Who will be winning the game after three quarters or will it be tied?

Programming Note: Pregame Guesses

Achilles — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:51:12 -0000

Due to circumstances beyond my control -- my boss has a bunch of work for me to do -- the pregame guesses for the Oregon State game will be delayed a few hours.

Which is appropriate, I suppose, since the game itself it being tape delayed here in Los Angeles.

Look for them in the early afternoon ...

Some profs want Cal to stop subsidizing sports

Achilles — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:35:57 -0000

According to an article in the San Francisco Chronicle, the athletics department is facing multi-million dollar deficits and some members of their faculty want the university to stop bailing out athletics.

via imgs.sfgate.com

Here is the opening of the article:

When UC Berkeley lends its Department of Intercollegiate Athletics millions of dollars to pay its bills each year - and even forgives that debt at times - it's helping a top-tier college sports program beloved by thousands of fans.

But a growing number of Cal academics are disturbed by the practice, arguing that the prestigious research university should not subsidize elite athletes at a time of soaring college costs, faculty furloughs and reduced course offerings.

The faculty, which will debate the issue at next month's Faculty Senate meeting, is not alone. Now the independent Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics - formed 20 years ago by the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation to raise academic standards in college sports - is turning its attention to an out-of-control "arms race" among college football programs competing to pay increasingly high coaches' salaries and other associated costs.

It's pretty fascinating.

I'm actually surprised that a school that sells out its men's basketball games and has its own, on campus football stadium, can't make athletic ends meet. One must wonder if the deal Cal has with Nike is as lucrative as it needs to be -- considering Cal is a ranked football program with a good enough basketball program. Don't misunderstand -- I don't pretend to know anything about their Nike deal or any other revenue source, I'm just speculating based on what I know in general about where funding for athletics comes from.

The whole article is a worthwhile read.

Pregame Guesses: Arizona

Achilles — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:23:15 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

Not done yet

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May be the Halos will bring some good karma to BN this weekend? They are not done yet.

As for our boys, three up, three down. The funny thing about a three game winning streak against inferior opponents is that it masks your flaws. Beating bad teams, winning ugly -- these things don't matter when you're 3-0. We fans start looking at the rest of the schedule and deciding things like "Hey, we should beat Stanford and the Oregon and Cal games are at home and didn't Oregon lose to Boise State and our defense looks good so we should be able to contain Jahvid Best ... "

Well, we didn't beat Stanford and we looked bad against Oregon and even worse against Cal.

But the funny thing about a three game losing streak is that it magnifies your flaws. Losing to some pretty good teams force fans to not only acknowledge reality, but it leads them into finger pointing and over-analysis.

My hope here is to do neither. My hope is to point up some hard truths. I actually tried to do the same thing with the "Bye Week Guesses / Asterisk" post, thought I'm not sure how successful I was.

Real Fact #1: We are starting a freshman quarterback.

Yes, USC is rolling along with a true freshman at quarterback. And I'm sure someone could find another true or redshirt freshman quarterback who is doing well. But they are exceptions, not the rule. The reality is, experienced quarterbacks have historically been more successful in the Pac 10.

And we don't have an experienced quarterback.

And Kevin Prince is not Matt Barkley.

Kevin Prince is a kid who due to a knee injury barely played his senior season of high school football and who didn't play a down last year while Kevin Craft tried to perfect his tackling technique. Prince won a fall quarterback battle against a true freshman, Richard Brehaut who was so ready to play that the coaches used Craft when Prince was injured. Speaking of that injury, I am of the belief that Prince's broken jaw derailed the progress he may have been making and seriously set him back.

Real Fact #2: The offensive line is still a work in progress.

I'm disinterested in rehashing the Karl Dorrell era and I think I'm loathe to lay the blame for the current situation entirely at his feet. He's gone and it is Rick Neuheisel's job to win with what he's got to work with. But, there is no doubt at all that Dorrell's failure to recruit quality offensive linemen is having a devastating affect on the current team.

What's that?

You want me to stop?

"Achilles," you're saying, "The offense isn't the problem, it's the defense. It was the defense that crashed and burned against Cal."

This is true.

The defense hasn't been good.

But I'm not sure what the "real facts" are as they apply to the defense.

Subjectively, some of the players we hoped would have great seasons, aren't having great seasons. It's not enjoyable to name names when it comes to the players, but Alterraun Verner is not having a great season. Reggie Carter has not been good the past few games, he looks like he's over-pursuing everything. Sheldon Price has not been great either, but he's a true freshman and I (and this is lame) like his effort.

When it comes to explaining the failure of the defense against Cal, I'm at a loss.

Back to reality:

The overall reality is that this team is a work in progress. This program is a work in progress. We weren't nearly as good as the "we should be ranked" dreams some experienced after sweeping the non-conference schedule and we're not as bad as some feel we are now. This has always been a 5-7 / 7-5 at best season and that's still on track.

Before tossing out the guesses, I want to note one other thing:

Among the fans who don't read this blog so much, there is sometimes the impression that this site was all over Karl Dorrell from Day One and that the editors of this site and other blogs had it in for him from the moment he was hired. This is false, though it might be true that there was some healthy skepticism from the start. But the "we need a new coach" stuff from the original editors of this site did not start until the last three games of his second season.

Conversely, there are some Bruin message boards where fans actually think of themselves as the voices of reason. And in the last couple of weeks, the vitriol and rhetoric (not based on broad data points) being spewed by some of their contributors is far, far worse six games into Rick Neuheisel's sedond season than anything the founders of this community had to say at a similar point in Karl Dorrell's time in Westwood.

My only point, really, is that I plan on demonstrating patience with the program for the time being. We weren't that good a month ago, we're not that bad right now. Let's see how it plays out.

Here are the Pregame Guesses for Arizona:

Within 20 yards, how many passing yards will Kevin Prince amass?
Which team -- Arizona or UCLA -- will rush for more yards?
Within 3 yards, what will be the distance of Kai Forbath's longest field goal? If you don't think he'll have a field goal (ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha) just say none.

Calling All Bruins Nation Readers In Oregon/Pacific Northwest

Achilles — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:47:53 -0000

According to Jon Gold's UCLA blog at the Daily News:

UCLA's Week 8 matchup with Oregon State on Oct. 31 - Halloween - will be played at 1 p.m.
ABC did not choose to carry the game regionally, so the game will not be televised, due to the Pac-10 agreement with ABC. UCLA explored the options of playing at a time when the telecast could be done, but Oregon State thought it was in the best interest to play at 1 p.m.

If that's the case, we hope someone from BN who is attending the game in Corvallis can share his or her post game story/analysis based on actual eye witness account of the game. I am sure you can imagine how difficult it is for someone to write a post game wrap based on the radio call of Chris Roberts or the ESPN game log or whatever. So help us out.

Remember, this game won't be televised anywhere in the nation. From what we're hearing, Oregon State doesn't want to change the game time because it is their homecoming and they have some related events on campus throughout the day. FOX can't pick up the game because ABC has an exclusive on the 12:30 - 3:30 window for their Pac 10 game of the week. So, there is a good chance that there is zero TV coverage of this game, unless someone convinces Oregon State to move start time to 3:30 or later.

If you want to help out Bruins Nation and your fellow Bruins by writing about the game, let us know.

Also, if you're planning to be at the game but can't write it up, post your Twitter accounts or something in the responses so that fellow Bruins can "follow" you and maybe you can throw up some tweets during the game. Or just bring a laptop or smart phone and post to our game chat throughout the day.

You gotta help the rest of us out.

SI's Seth Davis: A Rebuilding Year for Howland and Company

Achilles — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 19:17:31 -0000

Image resized to fit the home page. Photo credit: bluejoe -N

I can't quibble with Seth Davis' contention that this is a rebuilding year for Ben Howland. The team is minus three senior starters in Josh Shipp, Alfred Aboya and Darren Collison, plus NBA first rounder Jrue Holiday. Only Nikola Dragovic returns from the starting five.

What I liked though about his story was this quote from Ben Howland:

Howland's pleasant demeanor, however, belied the seriousness with which he approaches every season. That was apparent when I suggested that it must be refreshing for him to enter a season with such low expectations. "If you're at UCLA, there's always expectations. To think for a minute there's not would be very naive," Howland said. Then he pointed a finger at his chest, right above the Bruins logo on his shirt. "We have 'em. That's the main thing. I have them. We expect to be good every year."

Yes, this is a rebuilding year. But this is UCLA. And it's not just the fans who have high expectations. The coaches and players do, too and the head coach accepts that and owns it and makes no excuses.

In Davis' opinion, this could be a long year:

But after watching Howland conduct UCLA's first practice later that evening, I have a message for Bruin Nation: Expect very little from this team. That way, if it does have a great year, you'll be pleasantly surprised.

It would foolish to expect a lot of a team that lost four starters from a unit that fell in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Losing players before their eligibility expires is a fact of life for the top programs, but few schools have had to deal with as many unexpected defections as the Bruins. Jrue Holiday averaged just 8.5 points as a freshman last season, yet he still turned pro and was selected 17th in the NBA draft. Russell Westbrook played nine minutes a game as a freshman, but by the end of his sophomore year was the fourth pick in the draft. Even a guy like Luc Richard Mbah a Moute was not thought of as a great pro prospect, yet he left school following his junior season and is now a possible starter with the Milwaukee Bucks.

In all, Howland has lost seven underclassmen to the NBA in the last six years, including five in the last three. "It's a Catch-22," he said. "Every kid wants to be a pro. That's understandable. The fact is, when you get the best players, often times you lose them."

I have to admit, when he lays it out like that, Howland's task appears daunting. We have lost a lot of underclassmen to the pros, but as Howland states, when you get great players, sometimes you lose them early.

There will be a lot more words about the Bruins' hoop team on these pages. Davis' take is just one of many and, frankly, I haven't thought the roster through yet so I'm not going to sit here and refute or debate him. Davis is pretty good at what he does, I like him, so I'll give some credit to what he's saying.

More than anything else, his story serves as a reminder that basketball season is underway -- as he indicated, he interviewed Howland and the first formal practice of the season -- and the way the football season has been going for the past month, I for one am happy to have the diversion.

Cal plays D with only ten men ... but manage to score on our offense anyway.

Achilles — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 19:46:23 -0000

Cal plays D with only ten men ... but manage to score on our offense anyway.

Saw this on Deadspin. It's a picture of Blake Ayles of the always classy USC Trojans flipping a...

Achilles — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 17:24:13 -0000

Saw this on Deadspin.

It's a picture of Blake Ayles of the always classy USC Trojans flipping a double bird at some Notre Dame fans. His parents must be so proud.

Pregame Guesses: Cal

Achilles — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 16:00:58 -0000

It's that time again ...

I've been having a little trouble trying to decide if this week's guesses post should be more about the Bruins or the Bears, so how about a little bit of both?

Last week, I opined thusly:

If we take care of business at the Rose Bowl on Saturday afternoon (and if the Dodgers clinch that evening), Sunday's L.A. Times sports section might actually be fun to read -- for those of us who still cling to the antiquated custom of having a stranger drop a bundle of paper wrapped in plastic on the driveway sometime in the middle of the night and on that paper is printed words of events that took place the day before.

Theoretically, by the time hiicaliber adds up the Pregame Guesses, the Bruins could be 4-1 and both the Dodgers and Angels could be in their respective championship series.

But a lot has to happen between now and then.

First things first, the Bruins need to beat the Ducks.

Well, we know how that worked out. The locals took care of business on the diamond.

On the gridiron, it was a different story.

I won't revisit all of last week's column, I'll just re-make the key point:

Have we beaten a good team this season?

No.

I'll refrain from busting out the asterisk that I used to sum up the 3-0 non-conference performance. I will however remind everyone what I concluded about the Oregon game.

I predict we'll beat Oregon.

Jonathan Crompton aside, the Bruins still need to prove they can win road games. Stanford is not the toughest environment in college football, but we're still a relatively young team at some key positions and winning road conference games is tough even for senior-laden teams. This goes for Oregon, too, who are not the same team on the road that they are in Autzen.

The quarterback situation for both teams is in flux. I can't get a straight answer on whether or not the Ducks' Jeremiah Masoli is going to play or not. His status for Saturday seems Tim Tebowesque at the moment. As for UCLA, we get Kevin Prince back and to me, that makes all the difference in the world.

So, while I rarely make predictions, I'm going to call a UCLA win -- a win that will retire the asterisk for the rest of the season.

Well, I was wrong. Wrong enough that I lack the confidence to make a similar prediction this week against Cal.

Speaking of which, I'd planned to do a whole thing this week on why exactly Cal fans seem to hate UCLA so much, when the truth is, Cal is a Pac 10 team that I sort of like in a how-much-can-you-really-like-a-team-that's-not-your-team sort of way. I had some technical difficulties with the podcast towards the end, so I'm not sure if Ryan ever asked our friend from the Cal blog to address that, but that's the question I would have asked if I were on the link with him.

But, at this point, my heart isn't in it and, frankly, there's no need to poke a stick into a hornets nest.

I will say that I agree with the guys in the podcast who said this is a must game for both teams. The winner moves to 4-2 and can reasonably expect to finish with at least six wins and a bowl appearance. The loser falls to 3-3 and will be forced to reassess their whole situation.

Despite these similarities, the teams are not exactly in the same position. Though UCLA fans are surely disappointed to be 3-2 (after a 3-0 start), they can't be shocked. Preseason predictions and expectations hovered between 5-7 and 7-5 and no one I know thought this was anything other than Year Two in Rick Neuheisel's rebuilding process.

It's different for Cal. They were ranked in the Top Five a few weeks ago and had a Heisman Trophy candidate in Jahvid Best. Two shellackings later and they're looking at BCS dreams turning into no bowl nightmares. And while I can't speak for them, some of them must be silently wondering when exactly Jeff Tedford's program is going to finally have the breakthrough season they've been waiting for. I'm not suggesting that Tedford's turnaround of the one win Holmoe era hasn't been successful, I'm simply saying that Cal's hold on their current position as one of the conference's three best teams (along with USC and Oregon) appears precarious from my vantage point and they have to be a little bit concerned about a slip back to middle of the pack status.

hicalliber requested that I go easier on everyone due to the difficult nature of last week's guesses. LOL -- that's actually hard to do, unless I ask the truly obvious. I just try and make them weird and fun -- they're guesses, not predictions. Anyways, here goes:

Will UCLA get more field goals or touchdowns against Cal? Or will they have the same amount? (Answer should be TDs, FGs, or Same)
Name a Bruin who will recover a Cal fumble? (Just to be clear, this is a Bruin who will recover a ball fumbled by a Cal player. If you want to say "Milton Knox" because you think a Cal defender will intercept a pass and fumble on the return, that's fine. Personally, I'm going with someone on defense. You can say "none" or "no one', too.)
Wow -- number 2 is a hard question. I need to make this one easier. Okay, will the Bruins run or pass on their first play from scrimmage?

Bonus question: I was going to make this an essay, so that hi would have to grade the responses subjectively, but that would have been cruel But, I still want to have a bonus question. The question is:

Which team, Cal or UCLA will score last in the game? It could be a game winning field goal, It could be a late touchdown in garbage time by the team getting blown out. But, the question is: Who scores last in the game?