SB Nation User Blog: Achilles

Pregame Guesses: Southern Cal

Achilles — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 11:25:25 -0000

Will the Bruins pound it on the ground today?

3:25 am.

Game day -- fifteen and half hours to kick-off, give or take a couple of Bud Light commercials.

3:25 am and it just totally hit me out of the blue that I didn't write a guesses post for this week's game -- due yesterday. In my defense, I haven't been on the computer -- no email, no blogs, no message boards, nothing -- since I left the office Wednesday afternoon. It's a holiday weekend, you know, and I've been doing the family thing.

I didn't even know we lost to Butler in hoopa until I just woke up in the easy chair, brushed some cabernet-induced cobwebs out of my eyes and started to write this post.

So, what is there to say about the USC game at 3:30 am?

I guess the straight up, I'm-too-tired-to-be-anything-but-honest truth is that I'm optimistic about the game, but afraid of my own optimism. What I mean is, I've been around long enough to have seen just about every scenario pre-rivalry game, but still I feel I'm in unchartered waters here. Let's put it this way:

For the first time in a long time, USC seems vulnerable, beatable at 3:33 am game day. As opposed to the last seven or eight years when they appeared invincible at 3:34 am on game day, this year they seem beatable. So, my emotions are not "Hey, it's a rivalry game, throw out the records and anything can happen" and then I sat back and prayed for a 13-9 miracle (but almost every time ended up with something closer to 27-0 in favor of the bad guys.) No, this year my feelings are more like "Last time I saw USC they were getting their doors blown out by Stanford in the Coliseum and we've been playing much better and anyway when was the last time we went into the USC on a three game winning streak and they were coming off a blow out loss at home." In fact, if they weren't "USC" someone would be noting that we're the hot team on a winning streak while they've lost two of their last three.

All that said -- 3:39 -- and I have every reason to be optimistic. We're the hot team. But just typing that, makes me feeling like I might be jinxing us. Like I'm forgetting the most important part of the sentence.

We're the hot team -- but they're still USC and they still have the better record and the second I start thinking we're going to win, something disastrous is going to happen.

See? See what happens when a prior coach (heck, prior coaches) and an apathetic administration allow the program to fall to mediocrity or worse. You start to doubt even the facts that tell you that this is a very winnable game and you fear even believing that the Bruins straight up are the team with momentum and that a UCLA win really wouldn't be much of an upset. Like I kid that's been beaten too many time by his last foster father, it's hard to trust the new guy, even though he seems really nice.

Okay, 3:44 am and I'm not too coherent. Too many carbs, too much red wine and Japanese beer coursing through my bloodstream for me to be making too much sense.

The simple point I'm struggling to make is that if this wasn't a rivalry game, if they weren't a team that has dominated the past seven or eight years, if we weren't the program that has struggled the last seven eight years or whatever then no one would have a hard time being optimistic about tonight's game. Throw out the records it's a rivalry game? -- No way -- in fact, just take a look at the records and you'll see all you need to know that this is a close game going in that could be won by either team.

Look, it's late/early. I'm going to finish this off and try and get some rest. I'm just saying that this year Bruin fans need no false bravado to convince themselves they can win. There is nothing false about it:: we can win.

Fifteen hours to kick off -- let's do it already.

Here are the Pregame Guesses for USC (and a giant "My Bad" for forgetting to do this earlier:

Haven't heard much this year about the Norm Chow-Pete Carroll rivalry within a rivalry. But it's till the key match-up going in. With that in mind, who will score first in the USC-UCLA game?
I think one key to the game will be whether or not UCLA can move the ball on the ground. That's how Stanford routed USC and it's important that the offense not rely completely on the passing game. True or false, the Bruins will rush for more than 100 yards tonight?
There's an old saying in football: Pay attention to the kicking game, because it's there that the breaks are made. UCLA's most consistent player all year has been Kai Forbath. In a close game, he could prove crucial. How many field goals will Kai kick tonight against the Trojans?

Pregame Guesses: Arizona State

Achilles — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:21:31 -0000

We're 5-5.

But we don't feel 5-5, do we?

I can't speak for any of you, the five game losing streak really took a lot out of me.

What I mean is, if you had told me before the season that UCLA would be 5-5 going into the Arizona State game and riding a two game winning streak at that, I would have taken it. I guess I would have figured on at least one non-conference loss, probably Tennessee because it was a road game for us and revenge game for the Volunteers. And I also would have figured at least one win out of Cal, Oregon and Stanford. But it didn't play out that way.

Instead, we took care of business against a relatively weak non-conference schedule, then rolled off the table during an October from Hell in which we lost five straight games.

As a result of that what-could-go-wrong-went-wrong stretch, I'm not so trusting of the current two game winning streak. Like the child of an alcoholic mom whose been trying to stay sober, I keep waiting for the other cleat to drop, to come home from school looking for milk and cookies only to find mommy passed out on the coach clutching an empty bottle of Beefeaters, while dinner burns on the stove.

But I suppose there's another way to look at this up and down season -- one that doesn't involve gin or a grease fire.

It's really just perfectly possible that we've beaten the teams we're better than and we've lost to the teams that are better than us. Think about it:

On a neutral field, wouldn't we still beat San Diego State, Kansas State, Tennessee, Washington and Washington State? And on that same neutral field, wouldn't we at least be underdogs against Cal, Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State and Arizona? I'm not an oddsmaker, but that looks about right. From that point of view, maybe we can describe the season up to this point simply by saying that we've beaten the teams we should have beaten, but failed to upset any of the teams that are having a better year than we're having.

Stay with me on this.

If that's true, then the question I have at this point is "Why didn't we upset any of the teams on the schedule who are just better than we are at this point in the Neuheisel era?"

My answer goes back to the end of the Tennessee game. We've debated Rick Neuheisel's decision to roll Kevin Prince out and go for a first down that would have allowed us to run out the clock. Part of me wants to admire that call, because it sends the message that we're playing to win, that we're not just playing "not to lose." You'd like to call it a gutsy gamble -- and I'm someone who actually admires Bill Belichick for trying to pick up a sort of similar first down for the New England Patriots against the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday.

But if I had a time machine and could change one play this season, I think that would be it. If that's not it, it would be Alterraun Verner's just-missed pick six against Oregon State -- actually that's probably the play I'd alter, so let's change the premise to "if I could change one offensive play this season" and go from there.

Not only did that play not entirely make sense strategically (the smart money was to take a knee on third down, let the clock run down, then take the safety on fourth down before turning the ball over and letting the red hot defense slam the door shut), it cost us Prince at a key point in the season.

That's the point I was driving at, in an admittedly roundabout way. The reason we never elevated our game past the team's that we've lost to, the reason we scored no upsets in my opinion is that we lost the quarterback we went all in on at a turning point in the schedule and we're only just now seeing him approach his potential. I'm stating here that had Prince played the whole season without getting hurt, the guy we've been watching check down to his fourth option, the guy whose been not just a quarterback but a leader the past two weeks would have emerged much sooner and we would have beaten a couple of those teams we played in October.

But I don't have a time machine and we can't unbreak Prince's jaw. Instead, we face Arizona State in the last home game of the year with a quarterback whose just now peaking. And that's a good thing.

Look, it's an unwritten rule around here that we don't look past the next game. And the next game is a tough game, no sure thing. But, if you indulge me one quick peak at the rest of the year, I'll just say this:

I remember Pete Carroll/Norm Chow's first season at USC. With that in mind and that as a model, It would not shock me if Rick Neuheisel spends January and February bragging about a five game winning streak that closed out the season with an 8-5 record.

Here are your Pregame Guesses for Arizona State:

Within ten, how many yards will Kevin Prince throw for?
In what will likely be his last game in the Rose Bowl, how many tackles will the great Brian Price record?
True or False, Alterraun Verner will intercept a pass in his final home game as a Bruin.

Bonus True or False question

True or False, the Bruins will be 6-5 and on a three game winning streak when the face the Trojans next week at the Coliseum?

SI Poll: They Like Us, They Really Like Us ... sort of ...

Achilles — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:04:58 -0000

Sports Illustrated has a new poll out.

They polled college football fans in the different conferences on who their favorite rivals are, what their school's greatest traditions are and which stadiums they most like to visit.

You know, stuff like that.

According to the poll, the Rose Bowl is the stadium most fans like to visit and more than 25% of respondents consider UCLA their greatest rival. I wonder if this is because USC fans responded more often or because other schools consider us their greatest rival.

See the poll here.

Alum Geoffrey Strand leads every man, woman and child in cheer at the Rose Bowl

Achilles — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 16:44:36 -0000

The Daily Bruin has a story on alumni cheerleader Geoff Strand in today's online and print issue.

via media.dailybruin.com

Geoffrey Strand’s popular punch-line developed in response to the turmoil that epitomized reality during his days as a student on the Westwood campus. At the time, protests and flag burnings were not uncommon, and power struggles both social and political pervaded the national and local scene.

As part of his campaign for head cheerleader, a student-elected office in those days, Strand created the trademark catchphrase to rouse memories of the good times. This imagery, epitomized by the Beach Boys’ “Happy Days” stereotype for optimism, was Strand’s attempt at a reversion to normalcy.

It's Cold In Boise In December -- I Won't Be There

Achilles — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 21:41:42 -0000

I'm nominating Ryan to go to Boise and live blog the Humanitarian Bowl.

According to Stewart Mandel's latest bowl game predictions, our Bruins will face off against Idaho on the Smurf Turf in Boise on December 30.We'll make it because the Mountain West Conference won't have enough bowl-eligible teams.

Maybe Ryan can stay over a couple more nights and live blog New Year's Eve. I bet that's a party.

Pregame Guesses: Washington State

Achilles — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:48:50 -0000

Not sure what it means, but Rick Neuheisel was in a very good mood on the Dan Patrick Show this morning. (Update:The link to the interview is now here.)

Neuheisel played sang, played guitar and outlined why the Bruins will be successful the rest of the year.

Neuheisel also explained to Dan why he's hopeful the Bruins have a lot of success in their future. He pointed to freshman quarterback Kevin Prince and some of the young playmakers around him.

The above is from the Dan Patrick blog. I was driving and didn't take notes while I was listening, but in addition to Prince, Neuheisel called out Nelson Rosario, Jonathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman as players he's looking to for big things the rest of the year and in the future.

Patrick asked RN if UCLA was going to a bowl game and the coach immediately went into "coach-speak" about how the team was going to work hard or try or whatever he said. Patrick cut him off and asked again if the Bruins are going to a bowl game.

Neuheisel said flat out:

"We're going to be bowl eligible."

Well, that's what I like to hear.

No bull, no equivocation, just:

"We're going to be bowl eligible."

Translation:

Neuheisel expects to win at least two of our last three games against Washington State, Arizona State and USC.

There is a paradox involved here.

On one hand, finishing 6-6 and being "bowl eligible" (and by that I think RN means that once we have six wins we're at the mercy of the bowl games issuing invites and even with six wins we can't control whether or not we get an invitation) is nothing really to brag about. If we're 6-6 every year, eventually the natives are going to get restless. A .500 program is not what we're ultimately aiming for.

On the other hand, when one considers we only won four games last season, that we are very inexperienced at many key positions including the offensive line and at quarterback and especially when you remember (and how could anyone forget) we were 0-5 in October -- well -- a 6-6 year is actually a sign of progress and hope for the future.

(Speaking of the future, I want to go on record right now with a semi-prediction: We are going to have a very good record in the PAC 10 next season. You know, I've already seen some prognostications that next year is another rebuilding year and that "our year" doesn't come until 2011. Most of that is based on a murderous non-conference schedule that includes trips to Kansas State and Texas and a home game with Houston. And, yes, I've heard the rumor that UCLA might drop one of those games to play TCU in Cowboys Stadium, but TCU is in the Top Ten right now so that's no easy game. My point is, even though UCLA plays a difficult non-conference schedule next season and could even lose all three, we are going to go 6-3 or better in conference. It's going to be a very Terry Donahue like final record, where we have a fair to worse non-conference schedule, but get on a roll and become a very dangerous team by year's end. I'm serious and if it happens, I'll be linking to this post all next season. If it doesn't I'll "accidentally" delete it or just edit out this paragraph. But, I digress ... )

In the Patrick show today, Neuheisel was particularly pumped about how the team has looked in practice the last few weeks. He didn't actually use the cliche "the lights went on for some guys" but that was the impression I got. He just seemed to feel that things were starting to click, that Prince was finally seeing and doing the things he needed to do, that Rosario had emerged as a go to receiver and that the defense was coming together and playing like a team.

I like what I'm hearing and expect UCLA to win on Saturday. Washington State is the worst team in the conference and we're 17 point favorites (or 17.5 depending on where you look).

Look, I'm not polyanna, no cockeyed optimist. When I was less than impressed with our 3-0 record I said so. When I say I like what I saw last week and like what I'm hearing this week and expect to win, it's not just being a fan. I really think we go to 2-0 for the month and if we do, I expect to be favored at home next week against Arizona State. A win there would get us bowl eligible before the cross town trip to the Coliseum.

Here are your Pregame Guesses for Washington State:

Nelson Rosario has two straight 100 yard receiving games. Within five, how many yards receiving will Nelson Rosario have this week?
Will UCLA convert a fourth down this week? (For our purposes, a conversion is either a first down or a touchdown.)
Name a Bruin who snags an interception this week.

Pregame Guesses: Washington

Achilles — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:54:59 -0000

Welcome to November ...

The Bruins entered October undefeated and fans here and elsewhere were lamenting why we weren't ranked while poring over the schedule, trying to decide if a trip to San Diego for a bowl game was possible or would we have to settle for El Paso, Texas.

October was an 0-5 disaster, capped by an Orange and Black beating in Corvallis on Halloween night. But Bruins fans are nothing if not resilient -- if you weren't resilient you'd be in an institution by now -- and the second half of the Oregon State game gave the half full segment of the Blue and Gold club something to build on as Kevin Prince discovered Nelson Rosario and Rosario discovered those things on the end of his arms called hands.

The questions I have is:

Has it come to this?

Are we reduced to clinging to "great fourth quarters against Oregon State" as a sign the the team has turned another corner?

Or is the corner we turned just another sign that we're going around in circles?

Seriously, is there any indication that November will be better than October? Will we have something to be thankful for come Thanksgiving or will the Halloween fright last the rest of the season?

Most importantly, will I ever stop asking these lame rhetorical questions?

I'm going to be right up; front with my answer to most of these:

I really don't see anything that tells me we're going to start playing better. We might, sure. But I've yet to see anything resembling consistency on both sides of the ball and without that, it's tough to have confidence.

This lack of consistency is perhaps the thing that's bothering me the most. Early in the season, the defense played well and saved the offense. It's easy to just chalk it up to Crompton but the defense did have a couple of great series to preserve the Tennessee win. (It's weird to actually type the word "win.") Somewhere along the line, the defense regressed and, yes, it might have something to do with the fact that the competition just got better. On the other side of the ball, we've yet to see anything resembling a 60 minute performance all year long.

Do I sound a little frustrated? You bet, I'm frustrated.

Writing these posts are supposed to be fun, there supposed to be a cool little warm up to another exciting Saturday. But a five game losing streak turns even a goofy little blog post into a chore. It would be a lot more fun to wax semi-poetic about another win or at least another exciting game. Instead, we're left to make lemonade out of another performance marred by inopportune penalties, delays getting the play in from the sideline, conservative coaching decisions and a scoreboard deficit.

But I'm not giving up. I knew -- like many of you knew -- that this was going to be rebuilding season. I didn't realize that progress would be so incremental that we'd be looking for sliver linings in fourth quarter comebacks that fall short, but that's the hand we've been dealt -- and the metaphor I badly mixed.

Here's to November ... and the Washington Pregame Guesses:

Who will rush for more yards on Saturday, Jake Locker or Derrick Coleman?
Name a Bruin who will score a touchdown.
Which team will kick off to start the second half?

Bonus Question:

We're thinking about doing the guesses for the basketball season. Do you guys (and gals) want to keep playing? I'm not exactly sure I'll have time to write a guesses post for every game and more importantly I don't know if hicaliber wants to total the scores, but if we can get it together on our end, do you want to keep playing? Just write Yes or No as the fourth answer in your subject line.

Pregame Guesses: Oregon State

Achilles — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 18:43:14 -0000

More photos » by Rick Bowmer - AP

Scary Quiz

Browse more photos »

Apologies in advance: As I noted in this Fan Post, I'm swamped at work trying to sell caskets to college students. These kids never want to plan ahead.

So, this week's guesses post will be short and sweet.

And that's not a reference to Jacquizz Rodgers.

For the first time all season, I don't feel good about a game.

I wasn't necessarily sure that we would win any other game on the schedule, but I felt we had a pretty good shot.

This one is bugging me a bit.

Oregon State seems tailor made to give us fits, especially with the running of Jacquizz. They routed us last season. They're coming off a loss. We're on the road. It's their homecoming.

That said, we need the win, especially if we're going to reach the 6-6 mark. (At some point, I'd like to bring the "progress" idea up to the top for discussion. I was going to do it in this post, but I realized that I didn't want to miss the discussion with the guesses. So, next week ... )

Score aside, I'm hoping for some small things. I want to see us tackle well. I'd like to see us throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver. I'd like to see us force some turnovers.

Again, sorry for the brevity -- we'll do more for Washington next week.

Here are the Pregame Guesses for Oregon State:

How many passes will Richard Brehaut attempt?
True or False ... Milton Knox gets more than three carries.
Who will be winning the game after three quarters or will it be tied?

Programming Note: Pregame Guesses

Achilles — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:51:12 -0000

Due to circumstances beyond my control -- my boss has a bunch of work for me to do -- the pregame guesses for the Oregon State game will be delayed a few hours.

Which is appropriate, I suppose, since the game itself it being tape delayed here in Los Angeles.

Look for them in the early afternoon ...

Some profs want Cal to stop subsidizing sports

Achilles — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:35:57 -0000

According to an article in the San Francisco Chronicle, the athletics department is facing multi-million dollar deficits and some members of their faculty want the university to stop bailing out athletics.

via imgs.sfgate.com

Here is the opening of the article:

When UC Berkeley lends its Department of Intercollegiate Athletics millions of dollars to pay its bills each year - and even forgives that debt at times - it's helping a top-tier college sports program beloved by thousands of fans.

But a growing number of Cal academics are disturbed by the practice, arguing that the prestigious research university should not subsidize elite athletes at a time of soaring college costs, faculty furloughs and reduced course offerings.

The faculty, which will debate the issue at next month's Faculty Senate meeting, is not alone. Now the independent Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics - formed 20 years ago by the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation to raise academic standards in college sports - is turning its attention to an out-of-control "arms race" among college football programs competing to pay increasingly high coaches' salaries and other associated costs.

It's pretty fascinating.

I'm actually surprised that a school that sells out its men's basketball games and has its own, on campus football stadium, can't make athletic ends meet. One must wonder if the deal Cal has with Nike is as lucrative as it needs to be -- considering Cal is a ranked football program with a good enough basketball program. Don't misunderstand -- I don't pretend to know anything about their Nike deal or any other revenue source, I'm just speculating based on what I know in general about where funding for athletics comes from.

The whole article is a worthwhile read.