SB Nation User Blog: Acid Reign

Gearing up for the Northwestern Wildcats!

Acid Reign — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 06:57:00 -0000

This highlight clip comes directly to you from the Northwestern Athletic Department. What a refreshingly modern approach to video! (As opposed to the SEC's antique model...)

War Eagle, everybody! It's time now for a look at Auburn's 2010 Outback opponent, the Northwestern Wildcats. Trying to imagine what will happen in this contest has NOT been easy. Auburn and Northwestern have never played each other in football. There are NO common opponents on the two teams' schedules. Both teams feature wide-open offenses that try to push the tempo. Auburn's spread attack has been more run oriented. Northwestern, without a feature back, has aired it out more. Both teams have tended to favor the 4-man rush on defense, and zone coverage. Both Auburn and Northwestern have had up and down periods, losing games they shouldn't have, and beating ranked teams. For those who are expecting a media-bandwagon "SEC is superior to the Big 10" post in this space, you are going to be disappointed. I think bowl history in the past ten years shows the two leagues to be remarkably even.

Northwestern began the season looking like a lower echelon Big-10 team. After blowing out Towson, the Wildcats struggled to a 27-24 win over Eastern Michigan. Losses on the road to Syracuse and Minnesota followed. The Wildcats appeared to be headed for a third road loss at Purdue, trailing 21-3 in the second quarter. The Wildcat D stepped up, forcing six turnovers. Northwestern would rally to beat Purdue 27-21, salvaging the season. A defensive win over Miami of Ohio followed, but then the Wildcats were shut down in East Lansing, falling to Michigan State 24-14. If you thought the 21-3 deficit was huge against Purdue, Northwestern fell behind 28-3 to Indiana at home. 26 unanswered points provided a miraculous 29-28 win over the Hoosiers. Northwestern appeared to be on the way to a major upset hosting Penn State. The Wildcats led 13-10 at the half, but quarterback Mike Kafka was hurt, the dam broke in the 4^th quarter, and Penn State won going away, 34-13. With a 5-4 record, and games left against Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin, it looked like Northwestern was in dire trouble. In Iowa City, quarterback Mike Kafka was limited with a leg injury, and gave way to backup Dan Persa. Then Persa hurt his hand. Kafka limped back on the field, and led Northwestern to a stunning 17-10 upset of the BCS-bound Hawkeyes. In Campaign Illinois, again with Kafka hobbling, the Wildcats downed Illinois 21-16. A huge underdog in their home finale against Wisconsin, Northwestern led much of the day, behind a 326-yard passing effort by Kafka. In the end, it was the Wildcat defense turning the Badgers away again and again. Northwestern won it, 33-31. The Wildcats finished 8-4, 5-3 in the Big Ten.

Offensively, the Wildcats try to run a balanced spread attack. This year, with a young offensive line and a variety of backs, rushing totals have been down. Fireplug freshman Arby Fields is the team's leading rusher, with 294 yards. Quarterback Mike Kafka is close behind with 265. Many of the big Wildcat rushing plays have been on quarterback scrambles, which happens to be one of Auburn's defensive weaknesses. The Tigers have been plagued all year by 3^rd and long plays in which the quarterback pops through the middle for big yards. Auburn will have to contain Kafka, who should be 100% healthy after battling leg ailments in the latter half of the regular season. Northwestern's passing attack is dangerous, if Kafka gets time to throw. Senior H-back Zeke Markshausen has caught a whopping 79 passes, and lanky senior wideout Andrew Brewer has added 49 more. Five Northwestern receivers have at least 23 or more catches, and 8 receivers have ten or more catches. The Wildcats are averaging 266 passing yards per game, and 386 total yards per game. By comparison, Auburn is averaging 214 rushing, and 219 passing, for 433 total yards per game.

Defensively, Northwestern has a stout front seven that has weathered brutal Big-10 trench warfare well. A banged up patchwork Wildcat secondary has managed 15 interceptions. The bad news for Auburn is that all 4 starters should be healthy for the Outback Bowl. Lockdown senior corner Sherrick McManis has 4 interceptions and 7 pass breakups, and I'd expect to see him matched up on Auburn's Darvin Adams for much of the morning. Auburn's Chris Todd will have to be careful airing the ball out, as Northwestern's defensive backs all seem to play the ball well. Where Northwestern has had problems is against pounding running games, and against screens. On the line, the Wildcats look to senior defensive end Corey Wootton. Wootton suffered a major knee injury in last year's Alamo Bowl, and has battled a high ankle sprain all year. Despite that, he's still managed 6 tackles for loss and 4 quarterback hurries. All in all, a pretty salty Wildcat defense has tallied 62 tackles for loss and 27 sacks. By comparison, Auburn has 71 TFLs and 25 sacks. Defensively Northwestern gives up 344 yards and 23.3 points per game. Auburn gives up 354 yards per game and 26.9 points per game.

On special teams, Auburn has a few advantages, although a couple of glaring holes remain. Auburn has yet to locate a punt returner who doesn't drop the ball. While this has yet to cost the Tigers meaningful points off a turnover, it has seriously impacted field position. Auburn also has a porous kick coverage unit. Northwestern covers kicks and punts pretty decently, but their returns are only average. Auburn has struggled punting the football with only a 35.4 yard net, but Northwestern is worse, managing only 31.7. Both teams have good placekickers. Auburn's Wes Byrum only missed one field goal all year. Northwestern junior Stefan Demos has hit 18 of 23.

Unit matchups, after the jump!

Auburn defensive line vs. Northwestern offensive line: Auburn enters this bowl with a veteran line anchored by senior All-SEC defensive end Antonio Coleman, who led the SEC in sacks despite ligament damage in his arm. Northwestern is young on the offensive line. The veteran is junior guard Keegan Grant. There are three sophomores: center Ben Burkett, guard Doug Bartels, and left tackle Al Netter. Right tackle Neal Deiters is a redshirt freshman. Auburn has a pair of bullrushing tackles in Jake Ricks and Mike Blanc. And Auburn can bring Nick Fairley off the bench for a breather. Coleman against Netter is a good matchup to watch, but a better matchup will be on the other side, where junior Antoine Carter takes on a freshman tackle. Carter spent the early part of the year injured, but came on against Ole Miss and beyond. The combination gives Auburn speed rushers on both edges, and creates protection problems. Auburn's biggest problem on the D-line has been quarterback contain, and the Wildcats have the guy to exploit it in Mike Kafka. On the other hand, Northwestern has given up 29 sacks. Auburn has 25 on the season. Advantage: Auburn.

Auburn linebackers vs. Northwestern runners: Auburn has absolutely been ravaged by injury in the linebacker corps. Juniors Josh Bynes and Craig Stevens have had to play every snap in most games, and have had difficulty holding up as Auburn played 11 games in a row without a break. After a week off, the pair STONED Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, holding the Tide great to 30 yards. Weakside linebacker has been a rotating cast. Sophomore Eltoro Freeman is perhaps Auburn's most talented linebacker, but injuries have held him back. He's trying to recover in time for the Outback Bowl, and is practicing. The only other scholarship linebacker available is true freshman Jonathan Evans. Northwestern runs the ball by committee. Quarterback Mike Kafka seems like the biggest threat, running the zone read with aplomb. The likely bowl starter at running back will be sophomore Scott Concannon, who averaged 3.6 yards per carry on the season. Advantage: Auburn.

Auburn corners vs. Northwestern receivers: Auburn's Walter McFadden, a senior, will likely spend the day matched up with Northwestern's Andrew Brewer. McFadden has handled a number of dangerous SEC wide receivers well, good for 4 interceptions and 8 pass breakups. Where Auburn may struggle is on the other side. Sophomore Neiko Thorpe has been suspect from time to time, although he does have 1 interception and 8 pass breakups. The battle between Thorpe and Northwestern junior Sidney Stewart will be interesting to watch. Both are tall and athletic. Advantage: Even.

Auburn safeties vs. Northwestern secondary receivers and quarterback: Auburn will need SERIOUS help here from the linebackers and corners. The Tigers start true freshman Darrin Bates at one safety, and sophomore JUCO Demond Washington at the other side. Washington has only started 3 games. Both guys have lots of speed and are hitters, but are short on experience. Redshirt freshman T'Sharvan Bell is first in off the bench in nickel situations. Northwestern has OPTIONS in the slot. As mentioned above, Zeke Markshausen is a mainstay. The Wildcats can go heavy with "superback" sophomore Drake Dunsmore, a 235-pounder with 38 catches. Northwestern is particularly good at running "clear-outs," where the corners are pinched in on slants and posts, and the slot guys go out and up. Quarterback Mike Kafka has the arm to make all of the throws. Huge Advantage: Northwestern.

Punting: Auburn senior Clinton Durst dropped two yards in his punting average this year, finishing at 40.7. In Durst's defense, special teams coordinator Jay Boulware has revealed upon occasion that Durst was instructed to kick the ball out of bounds rather than test our suspect coverage unit. Junior Stefan Demos has struggled likewise for Northwestern, averaging only 35.3 yards per punt. Coverage for the Wildcats has been shaky, giving up 9.9 yards per return. Auburn's been downright bad on coverage, giving up 13.8 yards. Northwestern's 6.6 yard per punt return average won't impress anyone. Auburn has gone through a merry-go-round of return men, and has probably dropped a dozen punts on the ground over the course of the season. The Tigers' 4.5 yard punt return average is among the worst in the nation. It's been a miracle that the punt teams' woes haven't resulted in a loss. This may be the game! Advantage: Northwestern.

Kickoffs: Auburn is slightly better on kickoff distance, averaging 62.0 yards to Northwestern's 59.9. Auburn coverage has been worse, giving up 23.6 yards per return, to Northwestern's 21.1. Auburn has kicked 5 balls out of bounds, to Northwestern's 1. Lately, we've cheered kickoffs out of bounds, because the other team usually does BETTER than the 40 on returns! Northwestern averages 20.4 yards on returns. Auburn averages 23.6. The thing to note about the Tiger kick return game is that they discovered sophomore Demond Washington's talents late. Washington wasn't used on returns till late in the season, and he's averaging 32.2 yards per return. Slight Advantage: Auburn.

Placekicking: Auburn junior Wes Byrum has had a nearly flawless season, hitting on all of his 49 extra points, and 14 out of 15 field goals. Northwestern's Stefan Demos has a good year, too. Demos has hit on 31 of 32 extra point attempts, and 18 of 23 field goal attempts. Advantage: Auburn.

Auburn offensive line vs. Northwestern defensive line: This is a strength vs. strength matchup. The Tiger line has held its own all year, and was only really beaten against Georgia and LSU. Auburn placed junior left tackle Lee Ziemba and junior center Ryan Pugh on some second-team All-SEC units. Auburn runs an array of traps, draws, and misdirection plays. Pulling guards Mike Berry and Byron Issom have been used almost like fullbacks, and have been very effective blocking on the corner. Despite playing in a spread offense, the Tigers have only given up 18 sacks this season. Where Auburn is weakest is handling the speed rush at right tackle. Senior Andrew McCain is a solid run blocker, but has trouble with speed off the edge. I look for Northwestern to at times move senior defensive end Corey Wootton to the right to try and get a mismatch. Wootton vs. Ziemba should be a good battle. Wootton vs. McCain worries me. Wootton is big, at 280, and fast. Wootton isn't the only capable lineman Northwestern has. Junior tackle Corbin Bryant and senior Adam Hahn are solid. Sophomore defensive end Vince Browne is tied for the lead on the team with 4 sacks. There is Wildcat depth in front four, too. Slight Advantage: Auburn.

Auburn backs vs. Northwestern linebackers: Auburn's backs have done well most of the year, and should benefit from weeks of rest. Running back Ben Tate made second-team All-SEC. H-back Mario Fannin was a blocking force and caught 39 balls. Backup H-back Eric Smith is a threat, too. Freshman tailback Onterrio McCalebb is a speed-demon. He's been battling ankle injuries in the last 8 weeks of the season, but should be healthy for the bowl. Juniors Nate Williams and Quentin Davie anchor the Wildcat defense. The pair combined for 160 tackles, including 14 for loss. Davie has been dangerous as a pass rusher too, with 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hurries, and 4 forced fumbles. These are prototypical Big 10-sized linebackers at around 235-240, and they won't be bowled over easily! Advantage: Even.

Auburn receivers vs. Northwestern corners: For the Tigers, this is the Darvin Adams show. Left out of All-SEC balloting, Adams finished in the top five in the league in every category, including a spiffy 17.8 yards per catch average. Terrell Zachary holds down the number two spot, and is a threat on the end around. Zachary only has 24 catches on the year, but is averaging 19.4 yards per reception. Northwestern will counter with senior Sherrick McManus and sophomore Jordan Mabin. Mabin has only two passes defended on the season in 12 games, so look for Auburn to try to test him. Advantage: Auburn.

Auburn secondary receivers and quarterback vs. Northwestern safeties: Auburn will go with senior quarterback Chris Todd and a battle tested bunch. Blocking tight end Tommy Trott has been off and on as a receiver, and Chris Todd has struggled to get him the ball late in the season. The main receiving threat of the secondary receivers is Mario Fannin. That bubble screen to Fannin is probably our single most popular pass play, and I look for Northwestern to have the short zone dialed up for that. With a pair of seniors deep for Northwestern, Auburn may have trouble in the middle. Brad Phillips and Brendan Smith are solid, and sophomore Brian Peters are all among the leaders on the team in tackles. Advantage: Northwestern.

Auburn is not going to wow anyone on special teams, but they MUST minimize mistakes! When Northwestern has the ball, Auburn must really run to contain Kafka and the spread. If Auburn loses the battle at the line of scrimmage, it will be a long day of chasing Wildcat receivers. When Auburn has the ball, they have to continue to be multiple. If the Tigers have to rely on either the run or the pass too much, Northwestern has the scheme and players to shut it down. Chris Todd needs to have an accurate game in his Auburn finale, for the Tigers to win.

Prediction: With an El Nino pattern firmly in place, the gulf coast is seeing wave after wave of low pressure systems, mixed with waves of cold air from the northwest. It's been one of the wettest years on record, in the Southeast. Expect rain, for this year's Outback Bowl. Both teams will struggle with the conditions, and Auburn's running game is the difference in this one. Auburn wins, 27-20.

A Head-Scratching Snub.

Acid Reign — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:57:34 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

Auburn wide receiver Darvin Adams (89) frequently abused defensive backs! (AP Photo/ Butch Dill)

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War Eagle, everybody. The post-season All-SEC teams are out now, and there aren't too many surprises. It looks like some reporters and sports information directors simply copied their preseason list over again. I guess they DID pay enough attention that Jevan Snead didn't get any votes.

I'd say the biggest surprise of the All-SEC voting was the complete absence of Auburn wide receiver Darvin Adams in the voting. The media voters select 5 wide receivers. Statistically, Darvin Adams was 5^th in receptions, 4^th in receiving yards per game, 3^rd in receiving yards, 2^nd in yards per catch, and tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns. In fact, there's not a single statistical category that Adams WASN'T in the top five. Somehow, Joe Adams of Arkansas made it in ahead of Adams, despite catching TWENTY fewer balls! Adams also finished behind Florida's Riley Cooper, despite having more catches, more yards per catch, and more touchdowns. A similar argument could be made against LSU's Brandon LaFell: fewer yards, and fewer yards per catch. Even compared to the starting All-SEC unit, Darvin Adams had a better yards per catch stat and more touchdowns than Shay Hodge of Ole Miss. When comparing Adams to Georgia's A. J. Green, Adams had more yards, more catches, a better yards per catch average, and more touchdowns. HOW does Adams not get AT LEAST honorable mention notice?

On the season, Darvin Adams finished with 48 catches for 855 yards and 10 touchdowns. War Eagle, Darvin Adams!

In another predictable but irritating snub, kicker Wes Byrum was left out of the all-star balloting. Byrum hit on 14 of 15 field goal attempts, and made all 49 of his extra point attempts. Byrum connected on 93.3 percent of his field goals. The selected All-SEC starter Leigh Tiffin was only good on 87.9 percent of his field goals, and missed THREE extra points. Second-team selection Blair Walsh only hit 90.5 percent of his field goals. What makes Byrum's snub easier to take is that he essentially lost because Auburn was scoring touchdowns in the red zone, rather than settling for 3. The Tigers converted 76% of their red-zone appearances into touchdowns, and got points 94% of the time overall.

There isn't an official offensive lineman stat page on the SEC website. But I'd take Auburn's Lee Ziemba over most of the 2^nd team offensive linemen, and a couple of the starters. Ziemba finished in the "honorable mention" category, surely a result of false starts. The sad fact is that Ziemba earned his reputation for jumping off in previous years. This year, he's actually been penalized less than you think! On false starts, Lee had 1 against La Tech, 1 against WVa, 1 against Furman, 1 against Georgia, and one against Alabama. That's a total of 5 false starts in a 12 game season, which is not many for a starting left tackle. Ziemba had no holding calls against him, all year. And the only other penalty was on his ineligible catch in the Georgia game. How many sacks did Ziemba give up? I don't remember but one, and it was when Ziemba was trying to get over on a corner blitz that was probably not even his responsibility. All in all, Lee Ziemba was the best lineman on a pretty tough Auburn unit.

Let's hear it for the left-out Tigers that led our team! War Eagle!

Other Musings from Championship Week, after the jump.

Once again, we see the need in the Football Bowl Subdivision for a post-season playoff. The argument against undefeated TCU and Boise State for playing in weak, non-BCS leagues is somewhat legit. Big East Champ Cincinnati plays in a BCS conference, went undefeated, and got left out. Rather than play for a national title, Cincy will be taking on a frustrated Gator group. Coach Brian Kelly appears to be headed for Notre Dame, and the Bearcats will be facing a fired up Gator group without their leader. It's a bitter end to a great Cincy season.

As to the Texas Longhorns, has there ever been a more disrespected number two team in the national title game? Oh, yes! I remember about 17 years ago the national press was moaning over a team that had a whole schedule full of single-digit wins, that would NEVER be able to challenge the top-ranked Hurricanes. I think we all remember how that 1993 Sugar Bowl turned out, with the Tide stomping Miami into goo. I'd suggest that the Tide not take Texas lightly. The book on the Longhorns is to contain McCoy and cover Shipley. However, the overlooked part of the 'horn team is their run defense. Alabama will have a tough time replicating their SEC Championship Game effort on offense, I think.

Fellow track'em writer War Eagle Atlanta posted an excellent question earlier this week: Will Auburn fans cheer for the Tide, or the Longhorns? If Alabama loses, I'll snicker and try to get glimpses of Nick Saban's face on the sideline. But there is no hairy way I really want the SEC to lose the BCS title game. We'll never hear the end of it, from the national media, if the SEC loses that game. Yes, I want Alabama to win. No, I absolutely will NOT be screaming "Roll Tide" at my TV that night. Hopefully, I'll be sitting quietly in my chair with a Klondike and a stinger, enjoying a good football game.

It's a difficult time to be a Florida Gator. One of the prices for success is that your assistant coaches become hot commodities. Florida's loss of Tim Tebow pales compared to the amount of talent and experience that has left the Florida coaching staff in the past two seasons. How Urban Meyer rebuilds his staff will be key. It could be a tough transition period ahead.

What a difference a year makes! This time last season, we were jeering the Auburn coaching search. This year, we're cheering a promising foundation, and lauding Jay Jacobs' pitch to the Outback Bowl. Well done, sir, well done!

Postseason in the the SEC

Acid Reign — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 01:57:12 -0000

3rd team All-SEC?

War Eagle, everybody. The postseason of 2009 is on us, and the regular season is over. This time last season, I think most folks were glad it was over. Of course, December 2008 would turn out to be a terribly tumultuous month! We ran a head coach and staff off, at a cost of a cool $5 million. We hired a 5-19 replacement as the new head coach. The program was quite frankly in disarray! We were the laughing stock of the SEC, hands down.

A year later, how'd that work out for us? Against long odds, Auburn's football team won more than they lost, and they won the hearts of the fans. I don't think ANY of us are ready for the season to be over! In just one season, Auburn has vaulted to a New Year's Day bowl, and a winning record. A tremendous recruiting class seems to be in the making. There are 5 other 7-5 SEC teams, and I don't think they are laughing now!

This season, the SEC will send a record ten teams to bowl games. There are some tough challenges facing the SEC. I think most of the nation would love to see the SEC fall off its high-horse and lose big this bowl season. Texas will be a tough test for the SEC Champion, and the loser of the SEC title game will have to lick their wounds and get ready for another rough test. The Sugar Bowl is likely to match unbeaten Cincinnati against the SEC runner up, and if Cincy loses, then undefeated TCU. Penn State will be an extremely tough test for offensively-challenged LSU in the Capital One Bowl. Auburn's sometimes leaky defense will be tested by Northwestern in the Outback Bowl. Might be a record for points scored in that bowl! The Cotton will be a dangerous bowl, as both Ole Miss and Oklahoma State had hoped for much bigger things, this season. Likely bowl opponents in the second tier are Virginia Tech, North Carolina, U Conn, Texas A&M, and the Houston Cougars. SEC teams need to be on their games to match the success of the past three seasons. The SEC has won 19 of its last 26 bowl games.

The net yards per pass prizes, and ruminations on the SEC Championship Game, after the jump!

At the beginning of the season, I examined the net yards per pass of the projected starters in the SEC. Now that the regular season is over, let's see how they did:

SEC Eastern Division	Record	Record	Starting	Net Yards per pass	Net Yards per pass
Team	SEC	Overall	Quarterback	End of Season	Preseason
Florida	6-0	8-0	Tim Tebow	8.1	8.6
Tennessee	4-4	7-5	Jonathan Crompton	5.5	3.8
Georgia	4-4	7-5	Joe Cox	5.7	6.6
South Carolina	3-5	7-5	Stephen Garcia	5.8	3.5
Kentucky	3-5	7-5	Mike Hartline Morgan Newton Will Fiddler	3.4 4.1 3.3	3.9
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10	Larry Smith Mackenzi Adams	3.4 3.8	3.4 3.8

SEC Western Division	Record	Record	Starting	Net Yards per pass	Net Yards per pass
Team	SEC	Overall	Quarterback	End of Season	Preseason
Alabama	8-0	12-0	Greg McElroy	6.8	8.1
LSU	5-3	9-3	Jordan Jefferson	6.1	5.1
Ole Miss	4-4	8-4	Jevan Snead	4.9	6.3
Arkansas	3-5	7-5	Ryan Mallett	8.4	4.6
Auburn	3-5	7-5	Chris Todd	7.0	4.4
Mississippi State	3-5	5-7	Tyson Lee Chris Relf	3.4 3.2	4.9 1.4

Only three quarterbacks managed to finish at 7.0 or above, but every bowl eligible SEC team finished with a quarterback over 4.0 yards per pass. Those that did not attain 4.0 are sitting home for the holidays. It's been an odd year, in that most of the very experienced returning quarterbacks actually had statistically worse years in 2009. Tim Tebow's numbers are still good enough for second place, but he's down a half yard. Mike Hartline and Tyson Lee declined, too. Jevan Snead plunged from pre-season All-SEC 2^nd team to 9^th place in the league. Snead paced the SEC with 17 interceptions. Long-time backups Joe Cox and Greg McElroy both saw their stats shrink, thrust into starting roles. The winners in the improvement department are Ryan Mallett, Chris Todd, Stephen Garcia, and Jonathan Crompton. Crompton survived a HORRID September, to finish with a respectable 5.5 net yard per pass.

Ryan Mallett performed well enough to cause All-SEC voters to do some head-scratching. Who IS the best SEC quarterback? If you were arguing on strictly an MVP-type basis, you'd have to give the award to Mallett. Without him, Arkansas easily finishes in the West cellar. Looking at what each quarterback brings to the field, Tim Tebow ALONE makes Florida two-dimensional. However, is Arkansas' one dimension better than Florida's two? Total yards tell the tale: Mallett has 3387, and Tebow has 2962. Comparing the teams, Florida put up 5416 yards, and Arkansas 5272. To me, it's a tough comparison. I think if Tebow has a good game in the SEC title match, he'll win the All-SEC quarterback sweepstakes. If Bama's defense makes Tebow look human, it's Mallett's prize. Number three in the league HAS to be a surprise to everyone: Chris Todd. In this context, he's had a pretty amazing season.

I don't have a strong opinion on who is going to win the SEC title game. Both teams sport awesome defenses and good depth. I think Florida is a little better on offense, and a little better on special teams. And, I think Florida has the best player in the league calling the signals. I see another close Florida win, but it's certainly not carved in stone. The DUI arrest of defensive end Carlos Dunlap could be a distraction factor for the Gators. Alabama received a serious wake-up call in the Iron Bowl against Auburn. It could play out differently on the field, than on paper. I can remember ten years ago, a heavily favored Florida team was dismantled by a more motivated Bama group, 34-7. There have been surprising SEC Title game results this decade, to be sure! There was LSU's stunning 31-20 win over UT in 2001, The 34-13 LSU blowout of UGA in 2003, and Georgia's blowout of LSU in 2005. I'll watch this one for fun, as just a fan of the game! And yes, I'd rather see the West win. But I can't bring myself to say the "RT" words...

SEC Bowl Projections

Acid Reign — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 05:16:53 -0000

Mud Bowl!

A messy finish to the season might put Auburn in the Pizza Bowl.

Has the SEC bowl picture ever been murkier? The league should secure two BCS bowl bids, and has two teams that didn't qualify. The remaining eight are within a game of one another. Let's sort it out by division, first.

In the East, Florida wins, 8-0 in the league. Tied behind FLorida are four 7-5 teams. Tennessee and Georgia are 4-4 in the league, while Kentucky and South Carolina are 3-5. Tennessee beat Georgia head to head, and South Carolina beat Kentucky. Thus, the SEC East finish order looks something like this:

Team	SEC Record	Overall Record
1. Florida	8-0	12-0
2. Tennessee	4-4	7-5
3. Georgia	4-4	7-5
4. South Carolina	3-5	7-5
5. Kentucky	3-5	7-5
6. Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10

As to the West, Alabama wins with an 8-0 league mark. LSU finished 9-3, 5-3 in the SEC, and clinches 2nd place. Ole Miss is third, with a 8-4, 4-4 mark. Auburn and Arkansas each have 7-5, 3-5 records, and Arkansas won the head to head matchup. Mississippi State muddies the waters further, with a 5-7, 3-5 mark. Since the Bulldogs lost to both Auburn and Arkansas, they fall to the bottom of the division. The West finish looks like this:

Team	SEC Record	Overall Record
1. Alabama	8-0	12-0
2. LSU	5-3	9-3
3. Ole Miss	4-4	8-4
4. Arkansas	3-5	7-5
5. Auburn	3-5	7-5
6. Mississippi State	3-5	5-7

The bowl picture requires some comparisons between teams in different divisions. My guesses are based on the idea that the bowls will pick teams by how they finished, but we have certainly seen teams with lesser records moved ahead of teams with more deserving records in the past. An example of this would be from the 2001 season, when the Independence Bowl passed up a 7-4 Ole Miss team for a 6-5 Bama squad that Ole Miss beat head to head. The bowls will likely look at who travels well, in making their selections.

Obviously, the SEC Champion will go to the BCS title game in Pasadena. The runner up will likely end up in the Sugar Bowl. The Capital One Bowl has the number three team, and that would be LSU. The Cotton Bowl gets first pick of the remaining teams in the West, and the Outback gets first pick in the east. That scenario would put Ole Miss in the Cotton, and Tennessee in the Outback. The Peach would get the 6^th place team. On paper, that's Georgia. Pick number 7 would be the Music City Bowl. The Music City would get the best of the 4 teams that finished bowl-eligible at 3-5 in the SEC. Arkansas and Kentucky didn't play, but the Razorbacks own every tie-breaker against Auburn and South Carolina. That would seem to put the Razorbacks in Nashville. The Liberty Bowl picks 8^th. South Carolina beat Kentucky, and Kentucky beat Auburn. That puts South Carolina in Memphis. The Independence Bowl would then get to pick between Auburn and Kentucky. Kentucky won head to head. That leaves the Wildcats in Shreveport, and Auburn in the Papa John's Bowl in Birmingham. Do Tigers eat Pizza? The Pizza Bowl is on Saturday, January 2, at 2:00 PM. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out, a week from now!

Oh, What Might Have Been!

Acid Reign — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 18:31:04 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

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Alabama escapes from Auburn, 26-21.

War Eagle, everybody. It's time now for the Acid Reign Report on the 2009 Iron Bowl. I'm of two minds about this game. Honestly, I think we should have won this game, but a few mistakes held us back. However, there is no questioning that Auburn put forth a superhuman effort. If Coach Gene Chizik and his staff can summon forth that sort energy in future Iron Bowls, we will do well!

In my keys to victory post 10 days ago, I said that the Tigers needed to chiefly do three things: run the ball, stop the run, and play turnover-free. There was a little bit of success running. Auburn stopped the run emphatically. Turnovers were costly. Both Chris Todd turnovers, a fumble and an interception, set up Bama field goal attempts. Leigh Tiffin honked one of those wide right, but the other was good, pulling Alabama within 1 point. Had we not had those turnovers, Wes Byrum might have been attempting a 54 yard field goal at the end to send it to overtime. I like Byrum's chances a lot better than a Hail Mary! Auburn also gave up avoiding kicking to Javier Arenas, and that cost Auburn. A 56 yard punt return set Alabama up at the Auburn 33, which resulted in another field goal. We'd have been better off punting it out of bounds for no gain, on that one!

The Tigers came out with a wide-open offensive game plan, utilizing all sorts of misdirection plays, reverses, double passes, and swinging gates. The scheme really slowed down the Alabama pursuit, and forced them to attack more than they wanted. When Alabama started crowding the line, that opened up the Auburn passing game. Unfortunately, the Tigers did not do a good job of taking advantage. Tommy Trott was doing such a good job blocking on the corner that Tide defenders were avoiding being in the same zip code with Trott. We tried several slant passes to Trott, and missed them all. We had a number of opportunities to get running backs loose on screens, but didn't pull the trigger till 3^rd down, when Bama was sitting back in zone coverage. We managed to burn Alabama's corner blitz package with an out and up for a 72 yard touchdown, but never tried it again. Alabama secondary members totaled 5.5 tackles for loss. There was opportunity to throw over them, but we could not do it.

Special teams had a few good plays, but were not very good, overall. There were multiple kickoffs out of bounds, multiple fumbled punts, short punts, and line drive punts. We let Javier Arenas get 3 returns, and he burned us for 102 yards on those. The few bright spots were a successful onside kick, 2 punts killed inside the 20 by Clinton Durst, and 99 kick return yards on 4 kickoffs.

For the first time all season, Auburn utilized a run-blitz package, and it paid dividends! Bama was forced to operate from the shotgun and try mostly short passes. When you've held Alabama to 73 rushing yards, with a first year linebacker and two first year safeties, you've done really well! With good pressure, Greg McElroy avoided the costly turnover, but he was forced into drive-killing bad throws. I'd say defensive coordinator Ted Roof called a brilliant defensive game plan, except for one play. On third and nine from the Auburn 33 in the second quarter, we went with a safety blitz and left a linebacker in man coverage with Colin Peek. That decision resulted in an easy Alabama TD pass. You just don't call safety blitzes on 3^rd and long! ESPECIALLY if you're going to hand an all-SEC tight end off to a linebacker to cover!

Unit Grades, after the jump.

Defensive Line: A. There is little to find fault with, here. Auburn had their best day of the season, up front! Antonio Coleman and Antoine Carter both proved that they could sacrifice personal glory and stats, to play great contain on the Alabama running game. When it was an obvious passing situation, Coleman took James Carpenter and Drew Davis to school a few times. The tackle-end twist worked well too, with Nick Fairley able to turn the corner on Bama tackles. Mike Blanc and Jake Ricks stoned the Bama line, and plugged the middle. Points off on one Jake Ricks offside penalty.

Linebackers: B+. This might have been the best game of the season for the linebackers. It certainly was, against teams with a pulse! True freshman Jonathan Evans stepped up and did not back down against Heisman Trophy candidate Mark Ingram. Bama ran it right at Evans and Evans responded with 8 solo tackles! Josh Bynes was a force, with ten total tackles. Points off on Craig Stevens vs. Bama's Preston Dial, Brad Smelley, and Colin Peek. Bama blockers mostly handled Stevens. Points off also on Josh Bynes letting Peek loose for a second quarter touchdown. Bynes should have never been put in that situation, though.

Secondary: B. Auburn did a good job in two deep zone, taking the long pass away from Alabama. The Tide did try to force a couple into coverage, and both Walter McFadden and Neiko Thorpe responded with pass breakups. Run support from the whole secondary was good, but not great. On Alabama's last drive, the safeties got played a bit. The big 17 yard catch and run on the screen to Trent Richardson was on the safeties. Bates barely hung on at the ten. The fullback on the game-winning touchdown was Washington's man. As you might expect, that was a difficult adjustment to ask of a first year player.

A note on the Auburn defense this season: When Gene Chizik first arrived in Auburn in 2002, he had a very talented defense to work with, including future pro stars Carlos Rogers, Carlos Dansby, Dontarrious Thomas, Reggie Torbor, Spencer Johnson, and Jay Ratliff. Still, it took awhile before those guys "got it." We were diced pretty badly, in the first half of the season, including giving up record rushing yards to Arkansas at home in a 38-17 loss. The light didn't really come on till late in the year, against Georgia, Bama, and Penn State. This year, Chizik and Roof have had to deal with a sub-par interior line, and a woefully thin back seven. Against Alabama, the light came on for this defense. There now seems to be some chemistry, and understanding of what the coaching staff wants. When the light came on in 2002, we were treated to some awesome defense for the next few years. For the 2009 Tiger defense, the light is now on again!

Punting: C+. If Clinton Durst had kicked every punt out of bounds for a 30 yard average, I'd have given the punting unit an A! Auburn did that early on, but in the second half they gave Javier Arenas some chances. Overall it was a solid performance. I hated giving up the 56 yard return, but we are hardly the only team Arenas has done that to! We ended up averaging a mediocre 40 yards per punt, with only a 31.6 yard net. Two punts killed inside the 20 helps this grade.

Punt Returns: D-. On five punts, dropped two on the ground. I pass this unit only because Auburn got both bobbles back. Priority one in the offseason is recruiting, priority two is finding and grooming a new quarterback. But I'd say that next on the list is finding a punt returner. This has been the worst year for Auburn punt returners EVER. We've had some bad years before, but nothing like this!

Kick Returns: C. Demond Washington averaged 24.8 yards on four returns. If that stat is compared to team averages this season, Washington would be tied for 3^rd in the SEC. Not bad, but against the last-place kick coverage team in the league, I had hoped for more.

Kickoffs: B. Morgan Hull kicked deep 3 times, and two of them went out of bounds. Against Javier Arenas, that's a favorable result. I'm surprised Bama didn't make us kick it again, on those! The two out of bounders gave Bama the ball at the 40. When we DID kick it to Arenas at the goal line, he returned it to the 46. Should have kicked all three out of bounds! The Tigers had a perfectly executed onside kick. It was brilliantly conceived, with the team acting lackadaisical, and not even lining up before Byrum suddenly just bunted that ball, and raced with it. It caught Alabama totally off-guard. That cat's out of the bag, I think. We won't be able to catch anyone else on that for at least five years!

Placekicking A+. Wes Byrum continued a near-perfect season by hitting all of his extra points. Byrum finishes the season having converted 14 of 15 field goals attempts, and 100% of his extra points. Magnificent!

Offensive Line: B+. It wouldn't be an Auburn football game without a Lee Ziemba false start. At least he got it over with in the first quarter. Ziemba had a pretty good day blocking on Lorenzo Washington and Brandon Deaderick, as did Andrew McCain. The two Tide ends combined for only 4 tackles, none for a loss. Auburn had less success dealing with Alabama blitzers. Eryk Anders was particularly elusive, racking up 3.5 tackles for loss, and 3 quarterback hurries. The Auburn line basically held their own, but didn't generate much push. Nearly all of Auburn's successful running plays were on trick plays to the outside. Pass protection was decent, most of the time.

Receivers: A. You can't ask for much more than these guys produced. They had great downfield blocking, no drops, and got a lot of separation on a very good Bama secondary. The greatest failure in this game was not utilizing these guys more. Both Darvin Adams and Terrell Zachary looked FAST against the Bama secondary.

Running Backs: C. Ben Tate ran hard, as did Onterrio McCalebb, but that's about all you can say. Great catch early for a touchdown, by Eric Smith. Blocking was quite poor, in this one. The only times the backs slowed Tide defenders down was when Ben Tate picked up a holding call. Mario Fannin bobbled a screen pass away that had the potential to go for a long TD. This might have been the worst day by the backs all year. Bonus points for no fumbles. Still, we needed a LOT better production blocking.

Quarterback: C-. Auburn had a plan to exploit the Alabama defense. When it moved to phase two, and we had to hit some short passes, we couldn't. Chris Todd had some nice downfield throws to Darvin Adams, but none to any other outside receivers. Terrell Zachary can run down the field all alone, and Todd will never look his way. Todd completed a decent amount of screen passes, but these were usually on third and long, and ended up well short of the first down. Todd missed the slant to Tommy Trott three times way high, ending up with an interception on the last one. Todd missed the quick hitch three times. Todd had a sack-fumble. Sack-fumbles are somewhat excusable from the blind side, but Todd was hit from the front. Sometimes a QB just has to fall down and eat it. After the first quarter, Todd kept us in the game with the 72-yard pass to Adams, but did very little beyond that. A half dozen better throws would have given Auburn a double digit win over the Tide.

I hate losing to Alabama, make no mistake about it. At home, it's an even more bitter pill to swallow. This one is easier than the last two Iron Bowl losses in Jordan Hare, because we appear to be on an upswing with our program. This is a game a more experienced Auburn squad might have dominated. It also makes one wonder where we'd be if we had played like this against Arkansas, against Kentucky, against LSU. Carrying the momentum over will be a challenge for the returning players and coaching staff.

My hat's off to Alabama. They got a lot more than they bargained for on this road trip, but they didn't panic. They didn't turn the ball over, and they didn't give up. Perseverance gave the Tide their second perfect regular season in a row. I think the Tide folks also know that they'll need a LOT better performance in the SEC Championship game, if they are to defeat the Gators.

It will be an exciting bowl and off season, for Auburn, but we must temper our expectations with realism. As Pat Dye said last week, next year's team won't be much better than this one. Problems will have to be worked on, and newcomers brought in that will play immediately. Nowhere will Auburn be hit harder by graduation than on the defensive line. The loss of Antonio Coleman and Jake Ricks will be huge. The loss of Walter McFadden will be big, too. McFadden was a top-flight cover corner, AND a great leader. Auburn will be solid kicking the ball, but will have to find a new punter. Returns and coverage were an absolute mess this season, and should see a lot of work. The offensive line will have to replace a tackle, and the replacement of seniors Tommy Trott, Ben Tate, and Chris Todd will not be easy. The quarterback race will be critical. Unless Kodi Burns makes a dramatic comeback, we'll be starting a green QB, next fall. If we learned nothing this season, we know that Malzhan's offense is heavily tied to quarterback play.

War Eagle to all, and have a great finish to Thanksgiving Weekend!

The Time Has Come!

Acid Reign — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:00:20 -0000

The Tigers will soon storm onto the field, and hammer Bama!

(Alabama at Auburn, open thread)

War Eagle, everybody! It's a fine fall morning, with finally a little bit of frost on the ground! It's time to get fired up, and to cheer our beloved Tigers on to victory over arch-rival Alabama! It's been 20 years since Alabama was forced to make their first trip to Jordan Hare Stadium, and Auburn will be trying to hand them their 8th loss on the green grass of Pat Dye Field!

In addition to beating Bama, Auburn has a number of records within reach. Senior defensive end Antonio Coleman has 22 career sacks, just 4 sacks shy of the record 26, set by Quentin Groves and Gerald Robinson. Ben Tate has 3168 career rushing yards, and needs just 200 in the last two games to surpass Joe Cribbs for 4th place on the all-time rushing list. Tate's 1209 rushing yards this season ranks 9th in school history. If Tate racks up 200 total in the last two games, he'll move into 3rd place, behind only Bo Jackson and Rudi Johnson. Chris Todd's 19 touchdown passes are just one short of the school single-season record. Pat Sullivan and Jason Campbell each had 20. Darvin Adams trails only Terry Beasley in single-season receiving touchdowns. Adams currently has 9, and needs 3 to tie Beasley's best season.

Here's hoping for a great Iron Bowl! We'll be here all day, cheering on the Tigers! As always, feel free to chime in and tell us what you think!

An Iron Bowl for the Ages!

Acid Reign — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:01:23 -0000

Nix to Sanders in the Iron Bowl!

Auburn has had unlikely wins before...

War Eagle, everybody! Iron Bowl week hums merrily along, and everyone's getting fired up for the big game! Auburn faces a well-documented uphill battle in this year's game, but that's nothing new for first year Auburn coaches. Today, we'll take a look back at another Iron Bowl at Jordan Hare Stadium featuring a first year coach. In 1993, Auburn faced the defending consensus national champion Alabama Crimson Tide with an undefeated season on the line. The game was not on television due to Auburn's probation. Alabama had erected a giant closed-circuit TV screen in Bryant Denny Stadium, and had filled the stands. This would be the only game in state history that had sold out TWO stadiums!

Prior to the start of the 1993 season, you'd have been hard-pressed to find many people who thought Auburn had a shot at a winning record. There were too many holes, not enough depth, and no proven play makers. Somehow, Auburn had won 'em all coming into this Iron Bowl. Even as late as a week prior, the experts did not believe in this team. Oddsmakers had made Auburn an underdog going to Athens to play a 4-5 Georgia team. Auburn had powered to a 42-28 win over the Bulldogs. Few folks thought that Auburn would score at will on Alabama. The Tide defense was studded with all-stars, including Antonio Langham and Lemanski Hall. Bama was second in the league in total defense, and 4^th nationally.

The Auburn defense would face a tall order, too. Bama had proven quarterback Jay Barker, elusive running backs Sherman Williams and Chris Anderson, a speedy wide receiver in Kevin Lee, and all purpose offensive dynamo David Palmer. Bama had suffered an injury-marred season, but everyone who could tape up and run was playing in this Iron Bowl for the Crimson Tide!

Game recap, after the jump!

It was a cool day in the upper 50s when the teams took the field. A brisk north wind blew, and Auburn won the toss. The Tigers deferred to the second half, and 5^th year senior walk-on kicker Brian Karkoska booted the ball deep, and David Palmer returned it for the Tide to the 23 yard line. The Auburn D forced a three and out, then after a punt, the Tide defense returned the favor. Auburn forced the Tide to go three and out again, then Auburn went on a time-consuming, hard-fought drive.

Auburn staved off 3^rd and long with a gutty 15 yard Stan White toss to fullback Tony Richardson. Then, on 3^rd and five and a half, the 5^th year senior White got the ball to the other fullback, senior Reid McMilion for six. The drive stalled after that, and senior kicker Scott Etheridge came in for a 52 yard field goal attempt. Etheridge had missed his only other career attempt from this distance, and this kick was knocked down short by the wind. A yellow flag gave the Tigers new life. Alabama was penalized 15 yards for having too many men on the field! Auburn kept grinding out first downs with the tenacious running of junior All-SEC tailback James Bostic, and reached the Tide six yard line. The Tide defense rose up, and Auburn was forced to settle for a short Etheridge field goal. Auburn led 3-0 near the end of the first quarter, and the drive had eaten 7:19 off the clock!

Alabama and Auburn again traded punts, but Auburn increased the time of possession advantage by eeking out a couple of first downs. Auburn's Terry Daniel punted one short, and Bama had decent field position at their own 29. This Tide drive didn't last long, either. On 2^nd and 1, Bama receiver Kevin Lee took an end around untouched through the Auburn secondary for a 62 yard touchdown. Michael Proctor booted the Tide PAT through, and Alabama led 7-3 with 10:00 left in the first half.

Auburn again managed to run the clock, and knock out a couple of first downs. From midfield, junior All-American punter Terry Daniel killed one on the Bama 6 yard line! Two plays later, Bama's Jay Barker dropped back into the endzone to throw, and was tripped up by sophomore defensive end Andre Miller for an Auburn safety! With 6:52 left in the half, Auburn had trimmed the Bama lead to 7-5.

The teams traded punts again, and it looked like the half would end at 7-5. The Tide got the ball at their own 47 with under two minutes left in the half, and it only took them to plays to increase their lead. Barker connected on the post pattern to Kevin Lee for 34 to the Auburn 19. On the next play, Chris Anderson took the pitch on a short side sweep, snaked through the Auburn defense, and tightroped the sideline for a 19 yard Bama score. Michael Proctor added the extra point, and just like that, Alabama led 14-5 with 1:08 left in the half.

Auburn could do nothing in the remaining minute of the half, and went to the locker room trailing the Crimson Tide 14-5. Auburn's offense had kept the ball for 21 of the first 30 minutes, dominating in time of possession, but Tigers trailed by nine. The Auburn offensive juggernaut of the past month had been effectively halted by the stout Alabama defense.

Auburn took the second half kickoff, and was completely stoned on offense. The Tide took over, and drove into Tiger territory, looking to salt the game away early. A key sack of Bama quarterback Jay Barker, and a holding penalty stopped the Tide threat, and forced a punt. Pinned deep, Auburn again could do nothing. After another Daniel boot, Bama was again in Tiger territory threatening. The Tide drive stalled again, under the weight of mounting penalties. In the game, Alabama would total 12 penalties for 117 yards, killing Tide opportunities.

With the clock under 7 minutes in the third quarter, quarterback Stan White took matters into his own hands. On a crucial third and 9, White scrambled for 11 and a first down. A 16-yard strike into tight coverage to Frank Sanders set Auburn up at the Bama 30 yard line! Alas, the Tide defense flexed its muscle again. Auburn faced 3^rd and 9 at the Bama 29, and White dropped to throw. The middle of the pocket collapsed, and Bama tackle Jeremy Nunnely slammed White to the turf for a 6 yard sack. White would not get up, suffering a blown-out knee for the second Iron Bowl in a row.

With six and a half minutes left in the third quarter, and the starting quarterback out for the rest of the game, Auburn coach Terry Bowden faced a decision. A pooch punt could be tried, or another 52 yard field goal against the wind. Bowden opted for neither. Backup quarterback Patrick Nix did not warm up. He barely had time to find his helmet, and went out for the 4^th down play. Auburn was going for it! Alabama defensive coordinator Bill Oliver was known as one of the best in the game, but he seriously messed up on this particular play. Oliver called for an all-out blitz, with man coverage on Auburn's two wide receivers. To make matters worse, All American corner Antonio Langham was paired with Auburn's Thomas Bailey, and not the Tiger go-to guy, Frank Sanders. Auburn went with a max-protect shotgun formation. Both backs and the tight end stayed in to block. The Bama blitz was blunted, and Nix heaved it to Sanders, who was well covered by Tide defender Tommy Johnson. Sanders posted up at the three, jumped, and snagged it. Frank then turned and dived into the endzone over Johnson, for the Auburn touchdown! Bedlam ensued. A quiet crowd erupted with a thunderous ovation! Scott Etheridge kicked the PAT through, and with 6:09 left in the third quarter, Auburn trailed Alabama 14-12.

Bama needed a drive to halt the Auburn momentum and rest their wounded defense, but Auburn was having none of it. Pressure on Jay Barker by Gary Walker and Jason Miska forced the Bama junior to chunk one up for grabs, and Auburn safety Brian Robinson came down with the ball!

The Tiger offense went to work on the ground, chewing up 51 yards, and eating 5:28 off the clock. The Tide defense did make a stand, and held Auburn to a field goal attempt. Scott Etheridge's kick was true from 26 yards out, and with 14:14 left in the 4^th quarter, Auburn had taken the lead, 15-14!

Alabama decided to get physical after a Brian Karkoska touchback kick. Three straight handoffs to Sherman Williams brought up 4^th and 1 for the Tide, at their own 29. The Tide went for it, handing off to fullback Tarrant Lynch from a split backfield. Auburn's front seven just BLEW UP the Tide front, and Lynch was spilled for a loss of a yard!

Taking over on the Tide 28, Auburn ground 3 plays for a first down. Three more runs produced a first and goal. Desperately, the tired Tide defense dug in, finally forcing a 4^th and goal from the 1 yard line. Auburn sent in Scott Etheridge again. A low snap was bobbled by holder Shawn Carder. Carder scooped up the loose ball, and angled for the pylon. Bama outran Carder, and stopped him for no gain. Bama took over at their own one yard line, with Auburn clinging to a 15-14 lead.

A first down Tide run went nowhere. On 2^nd down, Barker was scrambling from the Auburn pressure, and threw up a wounded duck. SOMEHOW, the fluttering ball went right to Tide receiver David Palmer, who was lying flat on his back at the 24. Palmer made the huge grab to give the Tide a first down. The clock was becoming a factor, and Jay Barker dropped to throw on first down, picking up a pass interference flag on Auburn and a new set of downs at the Tide 30. Three more futile plays brought up 4^th and 10. With the clock now under two and a half minutes, and Auburn's offense chewing up first downs, Bama's Gene Stallings and offensive coordinator Mal Moore were afraid that they would not get the ball back. A 4^th down pass was dialed up. Bama managed to isolate speedy receiver Toderick Malone on Auburn nickel back Dell McGee, exactly like Moore drew it up. Barker let fly with the ball on the corner route, but McGee played it perfectly. On 4^th down, it might have been better to swat the ball down and give the Tigers great field position at the Tide 30, but McGee was taking no chances. Dell McGee pulled it in and went to the turf, securing possession for the Tigers at the Auburn 30! The Tigers had only to run the last 2:30 off the clock!

Alabama set up in a goal line defense, determined to stop the Tiger running game, call timeouts, and get the ball back. On first down, Auburn ran a counter over left guard Jason Taylor. The line blew out a HUGE hole, and James Bostic was trucking into the Tide secondary! Wide receiver Frank Sanders peeled over and LEVELED a Tide defender. Bostic crashed through two would-be tacklers, and set sail for the end zone! Bama's Tommy Johnson caught Bostic inside the five, but it was way too late. Bostic rumbled for paydirt, and Auburn had stuck a 70-yard dagger into the Tide! Scott Etheridge added the PAT, and Auburn's lead was now 8. With 2:19 left in the game, Auburn had a 22-14 lead!

Jay Barker tried to lead a Tide comeback, but Auburn pass rushers were swarming in the Tide backfield. Barker went down with a knee injury, and Tide backup Brian Burgdorf came in. Burgdorf would lead the Crimson Tide down to the Auburn 41, but Auburn hurled Bama back. Burgdorf's last gasp 4^th down pass was knocked down with 21 seconds left in the game, and Auburn took over.

Patrick Nix took a knee, and the crowd counted it down! Auburn defeated defending national champion Alabama, 22-14! The Tigers were, in the immortal words of the late Jim Fyffe, "11-0! 11-0! ELEVEN and OH!"

How to Win The Iron Bowl.

Acid Reign — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 23:29:42 -0000

Bama's last visit to the Plains didn't go so well!

War Eagle, everybody! Like the Auburn football team, I've taken a few days off from college football. For the team, it was all about the fatigue. Auburn has played 11 straight weeks in a row. Only Vanderbilt has it worse. The Commodores will have played 12 in a row, when this season ends. They'll be rewarded by a 2-10 season, most likely. For me, the time off has helped me purge the taint of a bad weekend all around. Auburn's loss was painful, but I salute the effort of a fatigued, undermanned squad. I can't say the same for my Dallas Cowboys. When the first frost hits, the Cowboys' collection of superstars and veteran free agents pack it in. Who would you rather have pulling the strings: Bobby Lowder, or Jerry Jones? Things could be worse, Tiger fans!

After some well deserved rest, it's time to gear up for a visit by the Alabama Crimson Tide. Many Auburn folks I've talked to this week are already conceding a Tide win. I say that it doesn't have to be that way! Auburn can play with anyone, when they are executing well. The Tigers can beat Bama, if they run the ball, stop the run, and don't turn the ball over. The Iron Bowl last year was a tight game, till Auburn handed Alabama the ball 3 straight possessions in the 3^rd quarter. We can't do that, this year at home!

Keys to Auburn victory, after the jump!

Auburn needs to effectively rotate defensive linemen. There was a Zach Clayton sighting in the Georgia game, and here's hoping he's healthy for the Iron Bowl. We need to rotate both the tackles and ends, and keep them fresh for Bama's 4^th quarter push. If we have Antonio Coleman and Antoine Carter playing every snap of the first three quarters, we won't be able to stop Bama in the 4^th with the game on the line.

At linebacker, Auburn SORELY needs Eltoro Freeman back. It's no coincidence that Georgia outscored Auburn 31-10 after Freeman left due to injury. With Freeman, Auburn stopped the run. Without him, Georgia moved the chains. Craig Stevens, and Josh Bynes need to have career games. Auburn's linebackers must attack, and shut down Bama's running game.

Rotation in the secondary will be important, too. Safeties WILL have to come up and make tackles, in this one. Bama gets a lot of successful blocks out of their receivers, tight ends, and fullbacks. While I applaud the efforts of young Darren Bates and Demond Washington, we need meaningful snaps out of Mike Slade and T'Sharvan Bell, too. Neiko Thorpe MUST keep his man in front, this game. Alabama WILL try a few play-action bombs at Thorpe, and he's GOT to be ready! If Bama tight end Colin Peek returns for this game, I wouldn't be surprised to see Alabama throw some passes in the flat to him. Auburn safeties will have their hands full trying to cover Peek. Walter McFadden must continue his excellent play. Last season in the Iron Bowl, McFadden limited Julio Jones to 3 catches for 36 yards. If Jones is held to 36 or fewer yards this year, Auburn has a great chance.

Clinton Durst needs to have a great game in this one. His numbers may not be helped, but he should avoid punting the football where Javier Arenas can get it. Arenas is averaging over 13 yards per return. A 35-yard kick out of bounds is an improvement over letting Arenas possibly break the game open. Likewise, this might be the one game where I'll approve of the squib kickoff strategy. On returns, we've got to find some way to keep Demond Washington fresh for these. Did you know that Bama is dead last in the SEC, in kickoff coverage? Bama averages 38.6 net yards per kickoff, which is even worse than Auburn's 39.7.

Auburn's offensive line will have a tough task in this Iron Bowl. Bama has three HUGE defensive linemen, and big backups as well. All three linemen nearly DEMAND a double team block, then Bama usually sends an outside linebacker (Eryk Anders, Cory Reamer) as a rush-end. You don't know till the snap which side that end is coming from. The double team on Terrence Cody is probably inevitable, with the other guard pulling, for Auburn. I'd expect Alabama to attack Andrew McCain, who's been very vulnerable to the speed rush this season. On passing downs, McCain MUST get that first step back with the correct foot, and get his shoulders turned. On run downs, he's got to get his head across. Auburn must get the front four blocked, to get the running game going. Bama is number one in the league in run defense, giving up only 2.4 yards per carry. Please! No false starts or illegal shifts! Lastly, if we've got 3^rd and 1 or 4^th and 1, we've GOT to STOP trying to pull linemen!

Guess which Bama player leads the team in tackles for loss? Would you believe that it's Javier Arenas? Nick Saban LOVES him some corner blitz! Arenas is tied for 3^rd in the SEC, with 10.5 tackles for loss. How do they DO that? Well, safety Mark Barron slides over when Arenas blitzes. Barron has 7 pass breakups and 4 picks, which ties him for the lead in the SEC in passes defended. Justin Woodall, the other safety isn't bad either. Auburn needs some sort of "automatic" check when Arenas slides down the line just before the snap, both the receivers AND Todd. Bama always tips it, a second or two before the snap, AFTER you've meercatted to the sideline and changed the play. Auburn needs a two man route and quick throw underneath, to defeat that Arenas corner blitz. No one blends coverages like Alabama. Auburn's going to HAVE to be patient, and rely on crisp throws under the coverage. The Tide defends from the inside-out. To attack that, you've got to throw successfully to the outside. Auburn's greatest offensive failure in last year's Iron Bowl was only TRYING two passes to the sideline. Bama will bait quarterbacks into trying deep balls. Chris Todd must choose his times carefully.

For Auburn backs, it's really simple, this game. Eric Smith and Mario Fannin have to block like they've never blocked before, and Ben Tate and Onterrio McCalebb have to run like there's no tomorrow. Extra hard fought yards move the chains, and are the difference against really good defenses like Alabama. There won't be big holes and lanes. The backs are going to have to create. Above all else, Auburn must hold onto the ball no matter what! A deep interception is kind of like a punt. But even a single fumble in Auburn's own end of the field could lose the game.

Chris Todd, this is it. This is your big chance! Todd has had an amazing story this season, coming back from the brink to lead this team. It's been an up and down year, but now Todd can cement his legacy. If Auburn beats the Tide, Todd will go down as a legend. Todd needs crisp, accurate throws, and must avoid throwing into coverage. We'll certainly need that 5^th year senior maturity and leadership, in this tough ball game.

In other strategy notes, I'm not sure we need to run the Wildcat at all. Alabama has a series of defensive packages for it, including a two deep zone that still manages to overload the sweep side of the formation. A counter might work against that, but a Kodi Burns lob ball against that zone could be disaster. One thing I'd like to see occasionally is a flipped offensive line, and a Todd half roll to the right. With Ziemba out front, and McCain somewhat protected by the motion, Todd can do some damage throwing to the right, especially on the wide side of the field. I'm not sure about the hurry-up offense, in this one. I think it backfired, last week. We got tired on the line faster than Georgia got tired on defense, it looked like. Bama's not really a team you can wear down, defensively. We need to run some reverses to Fannin, Zachary, and McCalebb. Bama will not likely be vulnerable like some teams, but we need those plays to keep the Tide defense honest. Defensively, we've got to use more run blitzes. We're not going to be able to sit back in cover-two all day with Josh Bynes dropping in the middle. Bama will run it till we stop 'em.

It's soon to be Iron Bowl week, folks! I'm fired up already! I'm looking forward to a great week of analysis and fever pitch!

Dogs Bite Tigers in Athens.

Acid Reign — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 04:42:34 -0000

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Another one slips away from the Tigers.

War Eagle, everybody. It's time for an abbreviated Acid Reign report on Auburn's 31-24 loss to Georgia. For one quarter, Auburn dominated the Bulldogs. For the remainder of the game, it was an uphill battle. One thing is evident. No matter how overmatched, this team never quits! Prior to the start of this season, I worried about the strength of Georgia's lines. That worry proved to be on the money. When Georgia settled down, they dominated up front on both sides of the ball. Auburn continued to find a way to stay in the game till the end, but the game was tough to watch, for this Tiger.

Auburn continues to run the ball well, but a lack of an explosive downfield passing game hurt. Darvin Adams is a good one, and with continued development, both he and Terrell Zachary might be great. Still, it took a horrible defensive bust to get a touchdown pass to Zachary. The running game continues to confuse, but never really picked up consistent yardage. On Auburn's three scores, the first was a sandlot play that happened when Georgia rushed themselves out of contain. Todd found Burns on that one. Then there was the awful bust. Auburn's third score was on a kickoff return. We've known all along that Chris Todd does not have a gun for an arm. The most disappointing aspect in this one was the offensive line getting whipped. Not even LSU was able to massacre us with a four man rush like Georgia did. All I can figure is that 11 straight weeks have taken a toll.

Past a few first quarter stops, the defensive line looked tired. There were a couple of hold the ball sacks of Joe Cox, but Auburn had to blitz to get pressure, and linemen were left chasing Georgia backs downfield, especially in the second half. Walter McFadden continues to play well, but receivers on other Dbacks get open at will. When the other team loads up jumbo, and runs over you for 169 yards per game, there's not much you can say. We were not man enough up front to handle the veteran Bulldog line. Georgia's 4.4 yard per carry average is exactly what Auburn has been giving up on the year.

In the midst of this disappointing loss, Auburn posted the best special teams effort of the season. Yes, Demond Washington fumbled a punt. We do that every game, I suppose. Nothing new. Auburn did get it back. At least Washington went forward when he got the chance! All four of Auburn's punts were downed inside the Georgia 20, including another Chris Todd pooch job that was killed on the 3. Clinton Durst was consistent, hitting for 44 yards per punt. Kickoffs were again weak, but Georgia was contained pretty well on the return. Auburn's kick returns were the best of the season, including a desperately needed 99 yard touchdown by Demond Washington. The biggest negative was on the 20 yard Mario Fannin return. Georgia had totally blown their coverage, lost their lanes, and there was nothing but green grass on the left side of the field, with a couple of loose Auburn blockers. Fannin seemed headed that way, but for some bizarre reason, he cut back into traffic to the right, and ran right into the first man and fell down. When the offense couldn't block, we NEEDED another touchdown, there!

Unit Grades, after the jump.

Defensive Line: C+. At times, this unit was blown off the ball, but they slid and still made tackles. It was probably the best game of the year for a tackling standpoint, highlighted by Mike Blanc's nine solo tackles. We were trigger happy too much, taking repeated offsides flags. Coleman, Carter, and Zach Clayton were all flagged.

Linebackers: D. When a team runs right at you 38 times, and your outside linebackers only tally 10 total tackles, you're going to give up yards and points. Auburn's problems here are not new. Georgia tight ends and fullbacks got to the second level , and drove us back repeatedly.

Secondary: D. Outside of Walter McFadden, we were pretty anemic. That's to be expected with three very young players in the starting four, and even less experience among the backups. Neiko Thorpe still has a ways to go, and the two safeties had difficulty following the ball. Georgia didn't throw much, but when they did, they were quite effective, averaging over ten yards per pass.

Punting: A+. It's hard to find fault, here. Auburn gave up one three yard return, and nailed all four punts inside the Georgia 20. Clinton Durst had a marvelous 54 yarder die at the three yard line.

Punt Returns: C. With yet another fumble, the outlook remains grim, here. Demond Washington had a decent fair catch, and an excellent 19 yard return. Then there were two punts Washington let go, and one was downed at the Auburn 12.

Kick Returns: A. We're starting to make blocks on these, and it's paying dividends. Georgia looked undisciplined, and Demond Washington made them look bad. His shortest return was 23 yards, and his 99 yarder for a TD came at a critical time. Points off on Mario Fannin going the wrong way on his one return. And on that last Georgia kickoff, where was Washington? He had 202 kick return yards, at that point. His last one went 99 yards, and you sit him down on the bench with the game on the line? Who was responsible for that?

Kickoffs: C. When you have to squib kickoffs, that's bad. A 56 yard kickoff average is poor. I suppose it was good strategy, though. Georgia managed only 17 yards per return, and Auburn tackled pretty well. A 39.8 yard net kickoff average is one of the better scores of the season for Auburn, unfortunately.

Placekicking A+. Wes Byrum hit all of his kicks again, as did Georgia's Blair Walsh.

Offensive Line: D. Lee Ziemba got caught jumping at a critical time at the end, but he played better than the rest of the line. We got torn apart on the other side, on the pass rush. We got several holding calls, and were totally unable to move the Georgia line past the first quarter. Bulldog tackles slid with impunity down the line, and filled lanes. Auburn backs had nowhere to go but to the corner. While I'm picking on the line, it's time to criticize the scheme a little bit, too. On short yardage, we need to STOP pulling linemen! I don't know why we do this, and then run Ben Tate right into an unblocked tackle! WHY? On third and short against the 10^th rushing defense in the SEC, you drive block! DRIVE BLOCK! Get the first down! OK?

Receivers: B. Auburn men did get open, and mostly made catches. Points off on a crucial holding flag on Tommy Trott. You can always count on a Trott hold, and a Ziemba false start, every game. Again, Trott's probably a victim of offensive design. He's split out, and is a lot more visible than the average tight end. No grabbing, or they'll surely see it! Auburn's biggest problem in the receiving corps is that no one but Adams is consistently getting separation. While we blame Todd for locking in on Adams, he's got to go to the open man. I'd be looking Adams' way, too!

Running Backs: C. Blitz pickup was absolutely horrible. We routinely used a blocking back, and they were not up to the task of handling a loose Bulldog defensive end. Lead blocking wasn't much better, and our power running game went nowhere. Ben Tate got most of his yards on his own. Onterrio McCalebb brought a spark, but he's clearly still not 100 percent. We've got to do better, against Bama. Saban will be sending blitzers all afternoon.

Quarterback: B. Todd didn't have much time in this game. Sometimes, he just had to chunk one up and see what might happen. Got a couple of picks, but we had to take those shots. Todd was off target on his deep balls, with a tendency to overthrow. On the last Auburn play, Darvin Adams made a heck of a move to split two defenders. We might have had overtime, with a better throw.

I missed most of the live game broadcast, but got to watch the last drive. Other fans in the room with me were SCREAMING when Georgia safety Bacarri Rambo went down on that post to Fannin throw at the goal line. They thought he was faking, to buy a tired Georgia defense time. After watching the replay, I'm of the opinion that Rambo took a serious shot. I know I'd not relish a collision with Mario Fannin! Still, if I were coaching defense against the Malzhan offense, I'd have some "fall-down guys" lined up to send in. It's something to think about. Georgia ran right around Ziemba and McCain on the next play, for an easy sack.

In the end, the Bulldogs were too strong for the Auburn lines. Auburn fought valiantly on the road, but took a fourth consecutive loss to the Bulldogs. You definitely can't say that the Tigers quit, though. Here's to a well-deserved week off, for the Tigers. And we hope they come back with a spring in their step Thanksgiving week, and give the Tide all they can handle!

Auburn Had a Football Team...

Acid Reign — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 14:43:11 -0000

When Georgia was a Pup!

War Eagle, everybody! Tonight, the Auburn Tigers try to roll it up on the Georgia Bulldogs! There's a lot riding on this game, for the Tigers. With a win, the Tigers would almost certainly be in a New Year's Day bowl, likely the Cotton. (Anyone else interested in seeing the new Jerryland stadium?) An Auburn loss might pave the way to Shreveport. Should Auburn lose, it would be the first time to lose 4 in a row to the Bulldogs since World War Two.

The key to this game will be how well the Auburn offense runs. The line needs to have a great game, and we need to take care of the ball. If we can get the ball moving, I think Georgia will make enough mistakes to fall behind. Auburn cannot drop the ball on the ground, or put together strings of three 'n' outs.

Once again, I'm going to have to spend at least some of this game on earbuds with Stan and Rod, rather than in front of the TV. I am hoping to be home by halftime, and right here on this thread! This has been a ridiculous fall with obligations during Auburn football games. Next year, I'm turning everyone down during football Saturdays. And I can tell you this: NOTHING will get me out from in front of the TV, on Black Friday, this year! (Except free tickets..)

As always, feel free to chime in and cheer on the Tigers! This game may be one for the ages! War Eagle! Glory to Auburn!