Mitchel Lichtman has part 1 of an article up at THT, that does an extensive examination of when baseball players peak.

Lichtman takes a separate look at pre-1980 and post-1980 players, and finds that while the peak for post-1980 players is slightly later, and their declines more gradual, modern players still peak, on average, around age 28.

Bill James came in years ago with the conclusion that players peak around 27, while conventional wisdom has generally held that it is later...James incorporated that into his Fourth Noble Truth:

Ballplayers, as a group, reach their peak value much earlier and decline much more rapidly than people believe.

There's been a certain amount of speculation that, well, that was true back then, but in the modern era, the idea that players peak in their late-20s is outdated, and players generally peak later.  Lichtman's study seems to suggest that while players peak slightly later, the idea that a player's peak runs through his early-30s is not supported by the data.
 

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

5 months ago: Los Angeles Angels' Darren Oliver (38) tags out Arizona Diamondbacks' Mark Reynolds (27) in a rundown to end the eighth inning of a baseball game Saturday, June 27, 2009, in Phoenix. The Angels defeated the Diamondbacks 2-1. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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Okay, Darren Oliver is apparently going to be a Ranger.  There's been talk since the offseason started about C.J. Wilson getting a look in the starting rotation, and with Oliver joining the team, I think the assumption has to be that Wilson will be a starter in 2010...signing Oliver doesn't make any sense, given the makeup and needs of this team, if Wilson is in the 2010 bullpen.

So...what does the rotation for 2010 look like?  Presumably, we have Rich Harden, Scott Feldman, Tommy Hunter, C.J. Wilson, and either Brandon McCarthy or Derek Holland.  McCarthy is supposedly being shopped, so it could be that the Oliver signing is a precursor to a McCarthy deal, which would mean Holland is in the rotation at the start of the season.  Otherwise, given that Holland has options, if the Rangers don't move anyone else and everyone in the rotation is healthy to start the season, I think Holland is in AAA and McCarthy is in the rotation.

Moving to the bullpen...I'm going to assume that the Rangers are going to go with a 7 man bullpen.  There's been talk that they could go with a 6 man pen, but I think that is unlikely at this point.

Four of the seven spots seem set -- Frankie Francisco, Darren Oliver, Darren O'Day, and your LOOGY, who is probably either Clay Rapada or Ben Snyder.  Then you have your long man, who is probably Dustin Nippert, who is out of options.  If you want to go the two long men route, then you take Doug Mathis as well.  And if Chris Ray is healthy, he's presumably making the bullpen out of spring training.

In which case, barring injury, the only real question for the bullpen is, who gets that 7th spot?  Mathis?  Neftali Feliz, as the power setup guy?  Luis Mendoza, who is out of options?  Someone else, like an NRI or a Guillermo Moscoso or a Warner Madrigal?

This also, of course, assumes everyone stays healthy, which is a dicey proposition...but it appears that there's a real good chance, given this move, that Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland both start the season in AAA, most likely in the rotation, waiting for an opportunity to come up and replace someone.

Okay, Darren Oliver apparently is going to be a Ranger in 2010 (and likely 2011).  As I've said before, I don't think this is a real good signing, primarily because I think there are more glaring needs that should be addressed with the limited funds available.

Oliver has pitched out of the bullpen for Anaheim the past three years, and has been relatively consistent, posting ERAs in 2007-2009 of 3.78, 2.88, and 2.81, and FIPs of 3.78, 3.53., and 3.32.  He struck out 8 batters per 9 last year, against 2.71 walks per 9.  The year before it was 6 Ks to 2 BBs, and in 2007 it was 7.13 to 2.22.

Oliver doesn't throw hard anymore...his fastball the past three years, per Fangraphs, is at around 89 mph, and his slider is 78 mph.  Fangraphs appears confused in previous years as to whether he threw a curve or a slider, listing percentages for each but at about the same velocity.  Last year, they just show him throwing a slider, with no curve, and he appears to basically be a two pitch pitcher right now -- 89 mph fastball, 78 mph breaking ball.  Eddie Guardado, as a point of reference, was at 86 mph FB/78 mph breaking ball the past couple of years.

One of the arguments I've made about this signing is that the Rangers don't need another lefty reliever, particularly a middle reliever.  The counter to that has been, well, Oliver has been more effective against righties than lefties, so he shouldn't be thought of the same way as a lefty reliever.

There's some truth to Oliver being more successful against righties the past three years, but it is a weird situation.  Lefties had a better OPS against Oliver in 2007 and 2009, and righties had a better OPS (though only slightly better) in 2008.  However, drilling down the data reveals the splits to be unusual in certain ways.

Last year, for example, in 123 plate appearances against lefties, Oliver struck out 37 batters and walked just 4, a K/BB ratio better than 9.  In 170 plate appearances against righties, Oliver struck out 28 batters and walked 18, a K/BB ratio of around 1.5.  Lefties, however, had a .355 BABIP against Oliver last year, versus a .250 BABIP against righthanders.

In 2008, Oliver had a K/BB ratio of 4.17 against lefties, versus a 2.30 ratio against righthanders, without a huge split in BABIPs.  In 2007, Oliver had a K/BB ratio of around 2.5 against lefties versus a little over 2.0 for righties, but again, with a big BABIP split...a .338 BABIP against lefties, a .247 BABIP against righties.

This large spread in BABIP, along with the fact that Oliver allowed homers at a slightly higher rate against lefties (8 against lefties over the three years, 7 against righties, while facing righties about 40% more often), explains why lefthanders have produced a better slash line against Oliver the past three years.

Now, the relevant question for the Rangers is, is Oliver's success against righties, which is driven by the large BABIP splits, sustainable?  Is this something that is peculiar to Oliver, and inherently generates better splits?  Or is this just an aberration?

I don't know.  I'm not in a position to answer that question.  I can say that, looking at Fangraphs, Oliver's line drive percentage has been well below average the past three years, which suggests that opponent's aren't making good contact against him.  At the same time, though, one would normally believe that if he was truly as successful against righthanders than against lefties, then it would show up in his K and BB rates. 

So I'm not confident that Oliver is someone who is going to have reverse splits...he seems like someone who, most likely, is going to have more success against lefties than against righties in 2010.  Which, if C.J. Wilson and Ben Snyder or Clay Rapada is also out in the pen, means that half your non-closing relievers are guys you'd rather have face lefthanders than righthanders.

Another odd thing in Oliver's splits is his home/road performance over the past few years.  In all three years, Oliver allowed a lower slash line at home than on the road, and in 2007 and 2008, it was a significant difference.

In 2009, Oliver had a better ERA on the road than at home (2.35 v. 3.12).  However, he had a 5.00 K/BB ratio at home, versus 1.79 on the road.  His K/BB ratios weren't as dramatic in the previous two years -- and in 2008, he had a better ratio on the road than at home -- but he did have huge BABIP splits, allowing a BABIP at home in the .220s in 2007 and 2008, and well over .300 on the road in those years.

Another outlier on Oliver's chart is his HR/FB ratio...in the past three years, Oliver has allowed home runs on around 6.5% of the flyballs he's allowed.  The normal rate is 10%, and there's a school of thought that suggests that that normalizes over time...if we look at Oliver's xFIP, which adjusts FIP to normalize home run rate, Oliver is sitting at around 4.00 the past three years.

For what it is worth, CHONE thinks Oliver has another solid year in him, projecting a 3.48 ERA in 2010 with a 51/21 K/BB ratio in 56 innings.  Bill James projects a 3.92 ERA (and 4.12 FIP). 

So Oliver is someone who looks like he should have success in 2010.  I'm not as convinced as some are that he's going to be equally effective against righties rather than lefties, and I'm afraid not spotting him appropriately in terms of platoon advantages will impact his numbers.  But he's someone who should be able to be a contributor out of the pen next year.

T.R. Sullivan is reporting that the Rangers have agreed with Darren Oliver on a one year deal for $3.5 million with a vesting option, pending a physical.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record...I don't get this deal. 

So, yeah...the news today is that the Rangers are reportedly about to sign Darren Oliver to a one year, $3.5 million deal with a vesting option.

I don't get it.  The problem isn't that Oliver has been bad of late -- he hasn't.  He's been a solid reliever for the Angels.

The problem is that a lefty setup man/middle reliever doesn't seem to be real high on the Rangers list of needs, and this is a team that supposedly has almost no money to spend.  A team with almost no money to spend probably shouldn't be spending it on a 39 year old reliever.

Jeff Wilson writes that Oliver would give the Rangers six lefthanders to sort through for bullpen roles. 

To me, this indicates that either C.J. Wilson will be in the rotation, or that he is going to be traded.  It doesn't make a lot of sense to go out and get Oliver, and give him a contract like this, if you are going to keep Wilson in the pen.

More photos » by Mark Avery - AP

8 months ago: Los Angeles Angels, left from center, Vladimir Guerrero, Darren Oliver, and Torii Hunter, raise a flag commemorating the team's 2008 American League Western Division Championship before a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics in Anaheim, Calif., Monday, April 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Mark Avery)

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Jerry Crasnick is reporting that the Rangers are in serious negotiations with free agent reliever Darren Oliver.

There's been talk for a while that the Rangers have interest in Oliver, but I figured it was a kicking the tires type thing.  Actually signing him -- probably on a one year deal for about $2-3 million -- seems to be a weird allocation of resources.  I talked before about how I wished the Rangers could have been in on Nick Johnson, and if the Rangers have money for both Oliver and a Jermaine Dye/Mike Lowell/Vlad Guerrero type bat, it seems like there was enough money there to just sign Johnson.

Also, adding Oliver, with Clay Rapada and Ben Snyder in the mix, seems to make it a lot more likely that C.J. Wilson will start the season in the rotation, which makes the rotation more crowded.

We'll have to see how this plays out, and how much Oliver signs for, but right now, I just don't get this.

UPDATE -- Evan Grant thinks it will be for more than $3 million.  I'm flabbergasted.

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

4 months ago: Kansas City Royals' Billy Butler launches a fly ball out to Chicago White Sox right fielder Jermaine Dye for the second out of the seventh inning of a baseball game and 5-4 win over the Chicago White Sox Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2009 in Chicago. Butler went 3 for 5 with two RBIs with three doubles. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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In response to a comment in this morning's post, I said that I'd be willing to trade any three Ranger minor leaguers who are trade-eligible right now, other than Justin Smoak and Martin Perez, for the Royals' Billy Butler, who would immediately step in and be the team's #5 hitter and everyday DH.

Then I stepped back and thought about it...would I really be willing to see, say, Robbie Ross, Wilmer Font, and Engel Beltre go to Kansas City for Butler? 

And the answer for me, after some thought, was still "yes."

But I thought it would be a worthwhile poll question, so cast your vote below...

More photos » by Sharon Ellman - AP

3 months ago: Former Dallas Cowboys Troy Aikman, left, and Michael Irvin, right, laugh as they wait to participate in a halftime ceremony during the Cowboys' NFL football game against the New York Giants, Sunday, Sept. 20, 2009, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Sharon Ellman)

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Very impressive win last night for the Cowboys, who definitely showed up ready to play and quieted the doubters (which included me).

As we discussed last night, Mike Lowell's thumb needs surgery, and the Rangers won't be dealing for him now, which means they are back in the market for a free agent hitter to fill or share the DH role.  Jeff Wilson says the Rangers have shown interest in Jermaine Dye, Vlad Guerrero and Jim Thome, among others. 

T.R. Sullivan, though, says that Guerrero wants a two year deal, which the Rangers don't want to do, and Dye doesn't want to be a DH.  Troy Glaus, Ryan Garko, Jonny Gomes, and Fernando Tatis are the names I'd like to see the Rangers in on at this point.

Richard Durrett talks to Clint Hurdle about the three areas he wants to focus on with Rangers hitters this year.