As the rumor mills fly, optimism abounds for the upcoming 2010 season. Just how good are the Twins going to be in 2010? What are the biggest holes that need to be filled during the off season? And just as importantly, how can we assess the effect that potential moves could have to improve the ball club? Many of you have probably heard of using "Wins Above Replacement", or "WAR" as a method to evaluate a player's total value to a team, compared to a "replacement" player, one who is freely available at no cost from AAA, in season free agents, etc. For the last couple of years, the website Beyond the Boxscore, and more recently on a Twinkie Town Fan Post by Jon Kammerer, fans have compiled a list of player by player WAR projections to project an estimated number of wins for entire teams, divisions and leagues.

I've done similar projections for the Twins the last few years, with varying levels of success. This year, I'm taking my projections in a different direction. Starting with actual 2009 statistics as a baseline, can I track the Twins' WAR projections as moves are made throughout the off season? This article gives us a start for a move-by-move assessment leading up to opening day. First things first, where do I put the Twins as of today? Bottom line, I project the Twins at 84-85 wins as the team is currently constructed. I've posted the full WAR spreadsheet on Google Docs here. I'm sure many of you will immediately be up in arms at a projection of a 2 win drop-off compared to 2009, a full three wins below Jon's analysis. I'll get into much more detail after the jump, but before we get there, let's take a deeper look at the three 2010 projections I've done to date compared to the 2009 data.

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5:30 pm:  [Update by Jesse]  Wow.  It's been...um...a really super crazy active day.  Or not.  Ken Rosenthal tweets that the Twins will be holding off until January to pick up a third baseman.  He believes prices will be lower by that point, between unsigned free agents, the slew of non-tenders and teams just waiting to unload players they don't want around.  Hopefully the Twins are able to get a bargain.

10:50 am: Still been a quiet morning so far, but here's my afternoon (UK time) update before I go out for a birthday party and return to you in a very different state this evening (UK time)...oh yeah, this is a Jesse update, btw.

As has already been discussed in the comments, LEN III says Alexi Casilla has been made available. I have to agree with our amazingly intelligent community by saying, politically, that I'm not sure who would be interested in Casilla at this point. He's "toolsy" and still young enough to mature, but how much value is there in that considering the results so far?

Minnesota did nothing during the Rule 5 draft, so if anyone is scratching their head over that one, you can go ahead and find another excuse for scratching your head. Or maybe you could just admit that you have dandruff. I mean, seriously, it's not the end of the world. Just don't wear black.

The Twins will be getting an A or AA player back from Boston for Boof. This from Kelsie Smith.

8:40 am: Boof Bonser's agents report that he has been traded to the Red Sox. No word yet on who the Twins got in return.

Day 4 of the Winter Meetings is upon us. As expected, there has been more action in these comment threads than in the Twins rumor mill. To sum up the first three days:

1. The Twins and Padres continue to discuss a trade involving Glen Perkins and Kevin Kouzmanoff. San Diego wants a second prospect in addition to Perkins, what would get this done? San Francisco is also interested. Rumors indicate that the Padres asked SF for OF Fred Lewis and middle infielder Kevin Frandsen. LEN notes that the Twins "just won’t give up more than Glen Perkins."
2. With Carl Pavano accepting arbitration, Boof Bonser was designated for assignment. Apparently Boof rejected the Twins initial one year offer for a shade over the minimum. I suspect with Pavano staying and the 1-4 spots set in the rotation, we're done acquiring pitchers unless we move one of our top 4.
   
3. The Twins have expressed a great deal of interest in Mark DeRosa, but he's initially asking for 3 years / $27M. I don't think he'll get this much from anyone, and the only way the Twins sign him is if his price comes down significantly.
   
4. Talks with Joe Crede are progressing "very slowly". Not surprising, considering the many options out there. 
5. Multiple sources indicate that Rich Harden is going to sign with the Rangers for one year plus an option.Would you rather have Harden or Pavano? 

We have conflicting reports on whether Mauer contract extension talks have actually started. Joe C. in this morning's Star Tribune: "Contract talks haven't started". My guess is this is Mauer downplaying any preliminary discussions that may be taking place. No cause for alarm...yet.

Other random notes (many thanks to MLB Trade Rumors):

• Joe C. also notes that Carl Pavano's agent had an "excellent first meeting" with the Twins, and that Glen Perkins has settled his grievance. 
• According to Joel Sherman, Detroit has reportedly put Curtis Granderson on the block. According to Phil Rogers, the Cubs need to go after him. Considering their need for left handed hitting, this would make a lot of sense. 
• Buster Olney is skeptical that the major free agents, Bay, Holliday and Lackey, will receive a $100M contract this offseason. Does this make Mauer a bit more affordable?
  
• MLB.com's Mark Bowman thinks the Braves may trade Javier Vazquez or Derek Lowe. Would the Twins have any interest for the top of their rotation?
• Jeff Zriebec of the Baltimore Sun thinks the Orioles may be interested in bringing Erik Bedard back to Baltimore, and that they might be players in the 3B market. 
• As many of you know, Carlos Gomez is a "Super 2", eligible for arbitration now that he's a Brewer. Apparently Adam Jones, Mike Fontenot and Micah Owings are all right on the cutoff point, and Fontenot was selected as the last Super 2. This saves the Orioles a lot of money, but it may also make Fontenot available. Not the most attractive option, but he was mentioned here last offseason.
  
• Dave Cameron thinks the Marlins may have waited too long to shop Dan Uggla. Has the price gone down?

For over 24 hours now, we've heard all the reasons there's no chance the Twins can beat the mighty Yankees in the ALDS. Massive payroll, won 103 games, scored 915 runs, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, etc. Yesterday's 7-2 loss only reinforces the lopsided matchup in the eyes of most media and fans.  Since we're not going to hear much other than the Yankees inevitable march to the World Series on the ESPN and TBS coverage, here are five real reasons to be optimistic about the Twins' chances in the remaining four games:

1. The great equalizer - a five game series. It's much easier for David to beat Goliath in a short series as opposed to a seven game series or a full season. It's not a coincidence that the Yankees' last three playoff runs have ended in ALDS losses to the Angels (2005, in 5 games), Tigers (2006, 4 games) and Indians (2007, 4 games). Also, New York won game one in both 2005 and 2006 before losing each series. 
2. Multiple Off Days - At this point of the season, it's pretty clear that Brian Duensing, however gritty on the mound, is the Twins' #4 starter behind Baker, Blackburn and Pavano. With off days on Thursday, Saturday and Tuesday, the Twins could go with Blackburn-Pavano-Baker and then bring Blackburn back in game 5 on normal rest. Seriously, the five game schedule looks like an NBA playoff series with the off days.
   
3. New York Rotation - Beyond CC Sabathia, there is a lot more inconsistency and uncertainty than you might think. A.J. Burnett has been wild at times (97 walks in 207 innings) and was awful in August (0-4 with a 6.03 ERA), Andy Pettitte has allowed 17 runs over his last five starts (27.1 innings), showing signs of wearing down after 194.2 innings, and who knows who NY will throw in Game 4. Joba? Mitre? Bring it on. Of course, NY could bring out CC in Game 4 and AJ in Game 5 if needed, but frankly, I have more confidence in Blackburn in a Game 5 than in AJ.
4. New York Pressure - The Twins are the underdog. No one expects them to beat the mighty Yankees, so they can play as loose as they want. On the other hand, the Yankees live in a fishbowl. All the Yankees fans I've talked to are expecting a sweep, and are already scouting the Angels and Red Sox for the ALCS. Once Minnesota forces game 4 and 5, there are going to be a lot of arms approaching pinstriped throats.
5. The Metrodome - I'm not sure any team, including the Yankees, can beat the Twins in the Metrodome right now. There is some serious positive mojo going on, given the sweep of the Royals, Vikes-Packers, and one game playoff. If the Twins can win these two home games (like I think they will), all they need is a split in the remaining two games in NY. A difficult, but certainly a realistic task. 

All said, the outcome of Game 1 hasn't changed my series prediction. Twins shock the world by taking Game 5 in NY, celebrating on the new Yankee Stadium field. Who's with me?

First Pitch:  1:05pm CDT
TV:  FS North
Radio:  Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy:  Bless You Boys

After last night's disappointing 7-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers (85-73), the Minnesota Twins' (82-76) backs are squarely against the wall this afternoon in Detroit. Three games ahead with four to play, and a magic number of 2, the Tigers can clinch the division with a win. The Twins need a win today plus a lot of help to gain at least two additional games over the weekend. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

Starting Pitchers

Fortunately for the Twins, our most consistent pitcher is on the mound this afternoon. For the most part, Baker's 2009 numbers are a repeat of his solid 2008 season. K/9: 7.48 (2009) to 7.36 (2008). BB/9: 2.05 to 2.19. BABIP: .288 to .290. Opponent's batting average: .251 to .249. GB/FB: 0.73 to 0.72. Etc. The only real difference in Baker's peripherals is a higher HR/FB rate (10.1% to 8.5% - suggesting a regression to mean) and a large drop in LOB% (69.4% to 78.7%), both of which drive a higher FIP (4.02 to 3.79) and much higher ERA (4.48 to 3.45). 

After a very good August (4-0, 3.18 ERA), Baker has seen some struggles during his five September starts (2-2, 4.66 ERA). None of Baker's last three outings (CLE, DET, @KC) have been quality starts, and the Tigers hit him hard on 9/20, with 8 hits and 4 runs in 4.2 innings. Minnesota needs Baker to come up big in his last regular season start of the season.

Robertson's 2009 season has been full of ups and downs. After spending the first three months in the bullpen, he spent most of July and August on the DL, making his first start of the season on 9/3. He's only pitched 43.2 innings, so his arm is definitely fresh for this time of the year. He doesn't know where the ball is going (28 walks in 43.2 innings), but his arm is fresh...

In the past, I'd be concerned about Robertson's left-handedness, but this season, the Twins hitters' numbers are a little better against lefties (.281/.340/.435) than righties (.270/.344/.420). Unfortunately, today is a day game for the Twins, and we're 10 games below .500 (23-33) in early starts. On the other hand, Detroit is 8 games above .500 during the day (32-24), so again, an uphill battle.

I've been meaning to write this article for some time now, but the data has eluded me thus far. As I showed during the offseason, in 2008, the Twins were a full 27 runs better than any other team in the majors (42 runs above average) doing the "little things", including baserunning and directional hitting (moving the runner over and other "productive outs"). Last year, these "little things" were a key to our offense outperforming the rest of the league relative to other measures like wOBA or OPS. 

So how are the Twins doing in 2009? I've run the data as of July 28th, and the team by team spreadsheet is posted here. As many of you have probably noticed this year, we've taken a decent sized step backward, slipping to 14th in the majors at +3.00 runs due to these "little things". Considering that on 7/28 we were about 2/3 of the way through the season, I estimate that solely due to these aspects of baseball that do not appear in the box score, the Twins are about 25 runs worse than in 2008. Prorated over a full season, that's over 3 marginal wins, enough to put the Twins right at Detroit's heels.

As you can see, Mike Scioscia has the Angels at the top again in 2009. How do we explain the Twins' drop? After the jump, I'll look a little deeper into the Twins numbers, comparing to last season.

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More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

4 months ago: Texas Rangers' Marlon Byrd, left, is congratulated by third base coach Dave Anderson (16) following his solo home run in the second inning of a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins, Thursday, Aug. 20, 2009 in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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The Texas Rangers drove another nail in the coffin of the Minnesota Twins 2009 season, beating the Twins 11-1 last night in Arlington. Tell me if any of you have seen this script before:

Twins starter gets knocked around early, putting the team in a deep hole? Check. After cruising through a 1-2-3 first inning, Anthony Swarzak began the second by hanging a breaking ball to Marlon Byrd. Texas up 1-0. Home runs in the third by Julio Borbon and Byrd's second of the game put the Twins in a 4-0 hole.

Missed opportunities with runners in scoring position? Check. In the top of the 6th, down 4-0, Denard Span and Orlando Cabrera started off the inning with back to back singles. Joe Mauer hit a screaming liner to third, which Michael Young snared. One out. Michael Cuddyer followed with a single to load the bases, chasing Texas starter Derek Holland. Enter flame throwing Neftali Feliz. After lining a 98 MPH fastball straight back, Joe Crede's bat shattered into a million pieces with a weak grounder right to third base. Double play, end of inning, end of threat.

Gardy leaves starter in an inning too long? Check. After gutting his way through a single and a walk in the 5th, Swarzak trotted out to start the bottom of the 6th after the Twins rally fell short. Nelson Cruz said "Thank you very much", driving a home run over the left field fence. 5-1 Rangers. Swarzak's body language said it all. He was cooked. After a walk to Taylor Teagarden (one of the great names in baseball), Gardy had finally seen enough.

Mediocre middle relief throws gasoline on the fire? Check. Enter Bobby Keppel. Elvis Andrus double, Borbon double, Young double. Texas up 8-1. Exit Bobby Keppel. Thanks for playing.

Twins play out the string, failing to mount a threat down 7 runs? Check. After the 6th, the Twins failed to get a runner to second base.

Notes, studs and duds follow the jump.

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First Pitch:  7:05pm CDT
TV:  FS-N
Radio:  Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy:  Lone Star Ball

After a second straight come from behind victory last night in Arlington, the Twins look to take 3 out of 4 tonight against the Rangers. At four games below .500, Minnesota needs a long, hot streak in order to climb back into the thick of the AL Central race. Where better to kick off such a streak than Texas, where it's too hot and humid to even play a day getaway game?

Starting Pitchers

Rookie Derek Holland is considered the second highest pitching prospect (to Neftali Feliz) in the Texas organization. A four-pitch left hander, Holland features a low 90's fastball, slider, curve and change. His rookie season, as for most, has been one of ups and downs. Over his last four starts, he's been very good, pitching 28.2 IP, 16 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 8 BB, 25 SO over the last month. In a start against Minnesota on July 19th, the Twins managed 3 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks over 4 innings. Sounds like more wasted opportunities to me...

It's time for Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson to earn his paycheck. Swarzak has been an absolute mess in his three August starts, listed below. He's got an 18.00 ERA and 3.25 WHIP over the three starts. The only good news? His FIP is lower than his ERA (9.08), primarily because he's only allowed one walk this month...it's still terrible though. We should know after the first couple innings whether Swarzak will have a chance to see the 5th inning for the first time this month.

• Aug. 15: 4.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, 2 HR
• Aug. 07: 1.0 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2 HR
• Aug. 01: 3.0 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0 HR

Lineup

Will be posted closer to game time. Expect to see Mauer DH, as he's caught the last three games and had a rough night behind the plate last night. Holland is a left hander, so Kubel may sit as well. I'm guessing Harris at 1B, Young-Gomez-Cuddyer in the OF and Mauer at DH?

UPDATE: Duh. Forgot Span. Cuddyer is at 1B. I was wondering about that...with both Kubel and Morneau sitting, the bottom of the order is a little soft.

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

4 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Michael Cuddyer, right, talks with home plate umpire James Hoye after striking out against the Kansas City Royals to end the third inning of a baseball game, Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2009, in Minneapolis. The Twins won 7-1. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

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Royals 5, Twins 4

When one hitter drives in four runs and the pitchers allow a total of five runs, one would figure a team has a pretty good chance of the other eight batters driving in at least one more run. Unfortunately, when we're talking about the 2009 Minnesota Twins, expectations go right out the window. This afternoon against the Kansas City Royals, Joe Mauer drive in four runs with a double and a 3-run homer. The rest of the Twins lineup? Other than a Nick Punto double to lead off the third inning, zilch. Four singles and seven walks, not a single run.

Out of the gate, Royals leadoff batter David DeJesus tripled up the right center field gap. After a Willie Bloomquist groundout, Kansas City was up 1-0 before many of us even realized the game had started. The Twins answered with a Mauer double, scoring Denard Span to tie the game. After a 1-2-3 second inning, Twins starter Carl Pavano appeared to get into a groove. Unfortunately, Carl had an 8.64 ERA against Kansas City in 2009 for a reason. In the third, the Royals went: walk, single, strikeout, single, double to plate three runs and go up 4-1. An Alex Gordon homer in the fourth put the Royals up 5-1. I don't know about the rest of you, but I was thinking "here we go again...". 

Fortunately, Mr. Joe Mauer is still a Minnesota Twin. After two outs (Redmond and Punto, go figure), Denard Span walked and Orlando Cabrera singled. Mauer followed with a home run to right center (really, this one wasn't to left field) to bring the Twins to within one run. We were back in the game.

Pavano got through a scoreless sixth, bringing up the bottom of the Twins order. Then the Twins let a golden opportunity slip through their fingers. Royals starter Gil Meche had already thrown 83 pitches through five innings, and given his 90-100 pitch limit he was pulled for reliever Robinson Tejeda. Tejeda threw a total of six pitches, walking Joe Crede and falling behind Mike Redmond, 2-0. By this point, Trey Hillman had seen enough, so he brought in Jamey Wright, who walked Mike Redmond. First and second, no one out, down one, Nick Punto at the plate. An obvious sacrifice situation. Unfortunately, Ron Gardenhire forgot one simple fact. NICK PUNTO SUCKS AT BUNTING! LNP failed to get the bunt down, striking out after bunting the third strike foul. A wasted opportunity to move the runners over. Wright walked Span to load the bases, bringing up Orlando Cabrera in a hero situation. What did he do? Grounded into a double play to end the threat and let the Royals off the hook.

By this point, it was obvious that the air was out of the Twins' tires. Over the next three innings, against the worst bullpen in the American League, all the Twins could manage were two walks. Of course, some of this was due to Trey Hillman not being allergic to throwing his closer for more than one inning, as he put his most reliable bullpen arm, Joakim Soria out for both the 8th and 9th innings to close out the game. How about that, and old-time-baseball save. Ballgame.

Studs, duds and a few notes after the jump

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