SB Nation User Blog: Adam Peterson

Runs Batted In: Opportunity vs Execution

Adam Peterson — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 01:46:32 -0000

Conventional sabermetric wisdom says that the RBI is a "dinosaur" statistic, less important or telling than other, "better" measures such as OBP, OPS, wOBA, or others. This is primarily due to RBI opportunities being out of the batter’s control. Whether a batter comes to the plate with runners in scoring position or with the bases empty is a result of the batting order and the hitters in front of him. As a result, RBI are often dismissed by the community as shallow; a relatively poor indicator of a batter’s true value to a team as a run producer.

What if we could reassess the RBI as a more meaningful statistic by leveling the playing field? In other words, can we normalize each batter’s RBI opportunities to gain a more accurate measure of the batter’s true success when driving in runs? Using 2008 and 2009 (through 7/1) data, I have done just that. You will see a number of familiar names at both the top and the bottom of the leader boards…

Justin Morneau: Elite Run Producer, or lucky to be batting behind Joe Mauer?

Over the past three years, no one on the Minnesota Twins has driven in more runs than the 2006 MVP, Justin Morneau:

2006: 130 RBI

2007: 111 RBI

2008: 129 RBI

That’s a lot of RBIs. Buthow much of this is Morneau the elite run producer, and how much does he take advantage of hitting behind one of the truly elite OBP guys in Joe Mauer? Let’s take a look at the number of RBI opportunities Morneau has had relative to the rest of MLB.

"Expected" Runs Batted In

How do we normalize each batter’s RBI opportunities? First we must create a baseline. I collected data from the entire 2008 and partial 2009 (through 7/1) seasons, counting the total number of RBI for each inning situation (e.g., one out, runner on second base). I used this data to calculate the average number of RBI that one would "expect" a batter to drive in for a given situation. I call this "Expected RBI", or "eRBI". Not surprisingly, bases empty, zero or one out (0.028 eRBI) is the least RBI-friendly situation, and one out, bases loaded (0.766 eRBI) is the best situation for driving in runs. I then added up the eRBI for each player across all of his plate appearances during the season. Who were the leaders in expected RBI?

Rank	Player	eRBI
1	Justin Morneau	99.8
2	David Wright	98.8
3	Garrett Atkins	93.0
4	Ryan Howard	89.2
5	Josh Hamilton	88.6
6	Jeff Francoeur	88.6
7	Raul Ibanez	88.4
8	Carlos Beltran	88.4
9	James Loney	87.1
10	Carlos Delgado	86.5

That’s a familiar name to Twins fans at the top of the list. Justin Morneau had more RBI opportunities than any other batter in Major League Baseball in 2008. That at least partially explains the 129 RBI last year. If Morneau were simply a league average run producer, he would have finished the season with about 100 RBI. This is yet a nother measure of the value of Joe Mauer. A couple of the other names surprise me. Garrett Atkins 3^rd in the Majors? Jeff Francoeur? Three New York Mets in the Top 10? Whatever the reasons, Morneau had the most RBI-friendly batting order spot in the Majors last year.

Opportunities vs. Execution: "RBI Plus-Minus "

Now that we’ve established a normalized set of "Expected" RBI for each player, we can calculate the number of "RBI Added", or "RBI Plus-Minus" by the player over the season. Again, many of the names at the top of the leaderboard are to be expected:

Rank	Player	RBI +/-
1	Ryan Howard	+52.8
2	Josh Hamilton	+41.4
3	Miguel Cabrera	+39.1
4	Kevin Youkilis	+36.8
5	Albert Pujols	+34.5
6	Adrian Gonzalez	+34.3
7	Ryan Ludwick	+33.6
8	Carlos Quentin	+33.5
9	Carlos Lee	+33.0
10	Ryan Braun	+29.9

According to this measure, Morneau comes in 12^th at +29.2 eRBI. Very good, among the elite batters in MLB, but somewhat below his #3 overall rank in RBI in 2008.

Of course, I always find it telling to examine the worst players in MLB:

Rank	Player	RBI +/-
1	Ryan Theriot	-27.6
2	Ichiro Suzuki	-27.5
3	Chone Figgins	-26.6
4	Willy Taveras	-26.2
5	Endy Chavez	-23.1
6	Cesar Izturis	-21.4
7	Akinori Iwamura	-18.8
8	Julio Lugo	-18.6
9	Jason Varitek	-18.6
10	Jason Bartlett	-17.8

A lot of slap hitter, leadoff types in this list. Considering that these hitters had relatively many opportunities (especially given Ichiro’s 749 plate appearances), it says a lot about their approach that they drove in so few runs.

Minnesota Twins 2008 "Studs and Duds"

Player	RBI	eRBI	RBI +/-
Justin Morneau	129	99.8	+29.2
Brian Buscher	47	29.9	+17.1
Jason Kubel	78	66.9	+11.1
Craig Monroe	29	20.4	+8.6
Joe Mauer	85	77.6	+7.4
Denard Span	47	41.2	+5.8

Buscher and Monroe have to be considered the surprises here. Performance with RISP is the key for both, as Buscher batted .386 and Monroe had a 998 OPS with RISP.

Player	RBI	eRBI	RBI +/-
Delmon Young	69	82.2	-13.2
Nick Punto	28	40.0	-12.0
Carlos Gomez	59	67.4	-8.4
Brendan Harris	49	57.0	-8.0
Matt Tolbert	6	11.1	-5.1
Mike Redmond	12	15.5	-3.5

Surprise! Delmon Young and Nick Punto at the bottom of a Minnesota Twins leaderboard. Shocking…

Team Performance

In 2008, the Twins led the league by far with a .305 batting average with RISP. One would expect the Twins to be near the top of the leaderboard in RBI +/-. In reality, the Twins were 11^th in MLB with +29.2 RBI Added. Why the difference? I haven’t gone into the data in too much detail, but I suspect this is due to the lack of home runs by the Twins.

Top 5 RBI +/-

Team	RBI	eRBI	RBI +/-
Chicago White Sox	779	679.6	+99.4
Texas Rangers	867	781.2	+85.8
Philadelphia Phillies	756	696.9	+59.1
Detroit Tigers	768	714.3	+53.7
Baltimore Orioles	750	704.2	+45.8

Bottom 5 RBI +/-

Team	RBI	eRBI	RBI +/-
San Francisco Giants	605	709.8	-104.8
Washington Nationals	608	691.2	-83.2
San Diego Padres	612	681.7	-69.7
Oakland Athletics	610	676.2	-66.2
Seattle Mariners	631	696.5	-65.5

What About 2009?

In 2009, Justin Morneau is currently 4th in MLB with 64 RBI, behind league leading Albert Pujols (77). For opportunities, Morneau is 10th in MLB with 43.2 eRBI, behind league-leading Carlos Pena with 46.7 eRBI. In terms of +/-, Morneau is 6th with +20.8 RBI added, behind league leading Albert Pujols, who has an outstanding +33.0 RBI added. It appears that this year, Morneau is outperforming his slugging peers compared to 2008. Due to Joe Mauer’s hot start, he is 8th in MLB with +20.0 RBI added.

At the bottom of the league, Alexi Casilla is the lowest Twin, 15^th worst in MLB with -10.7 RBI added. Even though the rest of his numbers have declined this year, Delmon Young’s -2.5 RBI added is closer to the middle of the pack than to the bottom of the league.

From a team standpoint, the Twins currently sit right in the middle of the pack, 15th in MLB with -5.4 RBI added. Even though we’ve seen a sharp increase in home runs, an even sharper RISP regression (down to .264, 11th in MLB) likely cancels out any advantage.

Conclusions

We see that many of the league's top RBI men are also at the top of the list in terms of RBI efficiency. This is not surprising, as the league's top sluggers bat in the cleanup spots behind great OBP guys for a reason. Managers (in general) aren't dumb. In the case of Morneau, the fact he has more opportunities than any other hitter has to be taken into consideration, but even with a more average number of eRBI, he'd only be losing 10-15 RBI over the season. Another reason Mauer and Morneau are a great combination for Twins fans.

Note

Sorry I've written so few articles so far this year. This picture helps to explain why I've been busy with other things during the first half of the season. My son, Chase Von Peterson, was born on April 30th. His sisters, Audrey and Olivia love having a little brother and everyone's doing great. Mommy would have been in the picture, but she doesn't have a Twins jersey yet (Orioles Fan...).

Blackburn Dominates, Twins Beat Pirates 5-1

Adam Peterson — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 22:17:34 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Minnesota Twins' Nick Blackburn pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the first inning of a baseball game, Thursday, June 18, 2009 in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

Browse more photos »

I should criticize Nick Blackburn more often. This morning, I put on my "pessimistic hat", expressing reservations about his increasing fly ball rate, high xFIP, etc. Boy, was I wrong. Blackburn responded with an absolute gem, losing a shutout with two outs in the top of the 9th as the Minnesota Twins beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-1 this afternoon in the Metrodome. With the victory, the Twins take two out of three against the Pirates, climb back to .500 (34-34) for the 15th time this season, and run their record to 7-2 in interleague play.

The story today was the 27 year old Blackburn, who pitched his first career complete game, the first by a Twins pitcher since July 2008 (Kevin Slowey). One tantalizing out away from a complete game shutout, Blackburn gave up an Erik Hinske double and Adam LaRoche single to spoil the shutout. In the end, the late rally wasn't enough to spoil Blackburn's 6 hit, 1 walk, 107 pitch (70 strike) gem. After the game, Blackburn noted the Pirates were "hacking" at the plate and his strategy was simple: throw strikes, and let the Pirates "beat the ball into the ground". And beat it into the ground they did. Blackburn managed the complete game with only 2 strikeouts, letting his fielders do the work, to the tune of 17 ground outs and 8 fly outs. That GB/FB ratio, my friends, is a recipe for success.

At the plate, the Twins got to Pittsburgh starter, Zach Duke, early, with a Brendan Harris single and Justin Morneau double, scoring Harris all the way from first. The Twins mounted another rally in the second, loading the bases for Justin Morneau. However, they only managed a single run, as Morneau grounded into a double play (the Twins' 7th of the series) and Cuddyer grounded out to finish the inning. Michael Cuddyer put the Twins up 3-0 in the bottom of the 6th with a home run to center field. Finally, Brian Buscher gave the Twins a couple insurance runs by wrapping a home run around the right field foul pole in the bottom of the 8th.

Game 68: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Minnesota Twins

Adam Peterson — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 01:41:27 -0000

First Pitch: 12:10pm CDT
TV: MLB.TV (and nothing else...this is getting old!)
Radio: Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy: Bucs Dugout

Starting Pitchers

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Nick Blackburn	5-2	13	13	0	0	0	0	84.1	86	36	31	7	24	37	3.31	1.30

Nick Blackburn comes off yet another gem, 8 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 3 ER no decision at Oakland last week. Blackburn sports a very nice 3.31 ERA, good for 10th in the AL. Putting on my pessimistic hat, based on FIP (4.18) or xFIP (5.01), his expected ERA is about a run or two higher. Also concerning for a ground ball pitcher (career 1.26 GB/FB ratio), in his last four starts, he's given up 38 GB to 54 FB. Hitters are elevating the ball a bit more, which will eventually result in home runs. Then again, I had concerns going into the last couple starts, and Nick has brought the goods.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Zach Duke	7-4	14	13	2	1	0	0	93.0	88	34	32	9	21	47	3.10	1.17

Zach Duke has been Pittsburgh's most consistent and effective starting pitcher this season, ranking 10th in the NL in ERA (3.10) and 9th in WHIP (1.17). Fortunately for the Twins, Duke (4.10 FIP / 4.43 xFIP) appears to be more in line for a regression than Blackburn. His extremely low BABIP (.268) and LOB% (78.5%) are due to come back down to earth. Duke is a ground ball pitcher (career 1.64 GB/FB ratio) who throws a high-80's fastball, but his curveball and change up are his most effective pitches. Twins hitters will need to be patient and wait for the hanging curve this afternoon. If his last two starts (5 HR allowed against Detroit and Atlanta) are any indication, there may be a few opportunities for the Twins to send a couple balls flying out of the park.

"Worst outfield defense of all time."

Adam Peterson — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 11:03:08 -0000

"Worst outfield defense of all time."

According to Dave Cameron

Twins Blow 3-Run Lead, Lose in Ninth

Adam Peterson — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 02:20:29 -0000

This afternoon, the Twins wasted a golden opportunity to get back to .500 by blowing a three run lead in the eighth inning and losing 4-3 to the Oakland Athletics. With the series split, Minnesota drops to 30-32 on the season, 4 games back of the division leading Detroit Tigers. The Twins also drop to 3-4 on their current 10 game road trip, and a pitiful 9-20 on the road heading into 15 games of interleague play.

Nick Blackburn and his opponent, Oakland starter Trevor Cahill, posted zeroes until the top of the top of the fourth. After a Justin Morneau single and Jason Kubel walk, Joe Crede stepped up and lined a Cahill fastball over the left field fence for a three run homerun. The homerun was Crede's 10th this season, his 7th in his last 81 at bats since early May.

Blackburn continued to cruise over seven efficient shutout innings, showing why he’s been the staff ace over the last month-plus. His only hiccup at this point was leading off the fifth inning with two straight four pitch walks to Jason Giambi and Landon Powell. Fortunately, a Daric Barton fly ball and a 6-4-3 double play got him out of the jam. As Blackburn had only thrown 82 pitches entering the eighth inning, he seemed well on his way to a complete game win, perhaps a shutout. All was good with the Twins’ world until Jack Hannahan stepped to the plate with one out…

After the top of the eighth, Minnesota brought in Carlos Gomez as a defensive replacement for Jason Kubel, moving Michael Cuddyer to right field. With one out, Jack Hannahan lined a low fastball to right. Instead of playing it safe with a three run lead and giving Hannahan the single, Cuddyer dived for the ball and missed, resulting in a Hannahan triple. Orlando Cabrera (Twins Killer) grounded a single up the middle to put Oakland on the board. Was Blackburn rattled at this point? Perhaps. He started Adam Kennedy off with two fastballs way outside, putting himself in a hitter's count. He then grooved a meat fastball right down main street, and Kennedy deposited it in the right field seats to tie the game. According to the Oakland radio announcers, it sounded like this shot looked routine and kept carrying and carrying over the fence. I say, who gives a sh*t, it's gone! Fortunately, Blackburn bounced back to get the final two outs and give the hitters another chance at the A's bullpen.

Unfortunately, the damage had been done. Maybe it’s just my pessimism of late, but once this game was tied, it felt over. With the bottom of the Twins lineup coming up in the ninth, Cuddyer (fly out), Brian Buscher (strikeout) and Delmon Young (strikeout) went down easily. In the bottom of the ninth, Sean Henn relieved Blackburn and immediately proceeded to walk Jason Giambi on four pitches. Matt Guerrier relieved Henn, and he plunked Kurt Suzuki to put runners on first and second. Daric Barton sacrificed the runners to second and third, putting Rajai Davis in position to win the game.Davis lined a soft line drive to right field to end the game and put the Twins bullpen out of their misery.

Stars

Joe Crede: His three run homerun was the only damage the Twins hitters could manage against Cahill
today.
Nick Blackburn: I'll take 8 IP, 3 R any day from our starters. Dominant through 7, lost it in the eighth.
Jason Kubel: 1-2 with 2 BB. Just beat out Morneau (2-4, R)

Duds

Sean Henn: Four pitches, all balls, walked the winning run on base.
Matt Guerrier: HBP, Sac Bunt, Single. Didn't get it done in a tough spot.
Michael Cuddyer: 0-4, 2 LOB, misplay in the eighth started the rally.

Game 55: Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins

Adam Peterson — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 15:36:31 -0000

First Pitch: 12:10pm CDT
TV: FSN
Radio: Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy: Let's Go Tribe

The Twins look to take the rubber game of the three game series at home against the Indians. After a solid 4-3 win on Tuesday, Cleveland pounded Anthony Swarzak and the Twins 10-1 last night. With a win, Minnesota (26-28) would move to within a game of .500 and, more importantly, leave for its upcoming 10 game road trip to the west coast and Chicago on a high note.

Starting Pitchers

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Scott Baker	2-6	9	9	0	0	0	0	52.2	57	37	37	14	10	39	6.32	1.27

Scott Baker goes after his third win on the season this afternoon. Baker's undoing so far this season has been the gopher ball. His 14 HR allowed is second in the majors to Brett Myers (17). The last three games (6 HR allowed) have not given Twins fans reasons for optimism, at least from a gopher ball perspective. The good news for Baker is that, other than the HRs, his SO/BB ratio (3.90) is above his career average (3.39). That's pretty much it for good news. HR/FB (15.9%) will probably come back down to earth, but Baker has become even more of a fly ball pitcher this year (0.56 GB/FB vs 0.73 for career), which over a full season would mean an extra 4-5 HR allowed. Line drive rate (20.3%) is pretty much in line with career (21.3%) numbers, indicating his BABIP (.282) is again lucky, just like last year (.290).

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Fausto Carmona	2-5	11	11	0	0	0	0	58.2	64	48	43	7	38	35	6.60	1.74

Fausto Carmona has been killed by walks this year (38 BB in 58.2 IP), walking more batters than he has struck out. Since his stellar 2007 season (finished 4th in AL Cy Young voting), Carmona has walked well over 5 batters per 9 innings, not an indicator of success for any pitcher, much less someone who strikes out around 5.5 batters per 9. Fausto provides a sharp contrast to Baker with his 93-94 MPH sinking fastball. His career GB/FB ratio is 2.74, one of the highest in MLB. It will be interesting to see if the Twins can elevate enough of Carmona's pitches to move the walked baserunners around the basepaths.

Lineups

Not available yet, I'll post as soon as they are available. Considering the long road trip, I would not be surprised to see Joe Mauer get a day off, but with injuries to Michael Cuddyer and others, the bench is thin.

Beckett Outduels Swarzak, Red Sox Split Series

Adam Peterson — Fri, 29 May 2009 02:09:16 -0000

Anthony Swarzak (6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 SO, 4 BB) gave the Twins their 7th quality start in the last 8 games, but it wasn't enough to beat Josh Beckett (7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 8 SO, 4 BB) and the Boston Red Sox this afternoon at the Metrodome. The Twins lost an opportunity to rise a game above above .500 for the 5th time, falling to 24-25 on the season. Boston moved a half game in front of the Yankees, at 28-20. With the loss, the Twins' problems in day games this season continue, falling to 3-11 in early starts.

Swarzak followed up his stellar debut (7 shutout innings) with another solid start, as he shut down the Red Sox through the first four innings (3 BB and a single). On the other side, Beckett's only blemish was a Joe Crede solo homerun in the second. Boston tied the game in the top of the 5th with a Jason Varitek solo homerun, but Swarzak got out of the rest of the inning unscathed.

After trading scoreless innings in the 6th, things got interesting in the 7th. Swarzak had thrown about 95 pitches to this point, going for another made sense against the bottom of Boston's order. Unfortunately, Varitek led off with another homerun to put Boston up 2-1. Jeff Bailey followed with a Texas Leaguer to short right center that Matt Tolbert couldn't quite grab over his shoulder. Jesse Crain came in to relieve Swarzak, getting Julio Lugo to fly out to right field. Ron Gardenhiredecided to play the lefty - righty matchup by bringing Sean Henn (not to be confused with Sean Penn)to face Jacoby Ellsbury. Henn hit Ellsbury, putting runners on first and third. Dustin Pedroia then hit a fly ball to Jason Kubel in right field. Kubel made a perfect throw home on the fly to Mike Redmond, and it appeared that Redmond tagged Bailey on the arm. Unfortunately, home plate umpire Todd Tichenor saw the play differently, calling Bailey safe. Redmond (rightfully, IMO) proceeded to get in Tichenor's face and was ejected in less time than it takes Delmon Young to strike out... Seriously, this one was like watching Bull Durham. "He must have called him a c***sucker". Gardenhire came out to protest, and immediately joined Redmond at the night crawler table. This put the Twins in a tough spot, as Joe Mauer had to move from DH to catcher and Henn into the #8 spot in the batting order. Anyone want to take bets on whether we bring up Jose Morales as a third catcher?

The bottom of the 7th saw its own drama, as Josh Beckett went on a 10 second temper tantrum after a borderline fastball on the outside corner was called a ball. In a very smart move to protect his pitcher, Varitek got between Beckett and Tichenor and was tossed in short order. Terry Francona decided the foursome was incomplete, so he came out to request an ejection and join the others. Did Beckett have an argument? Perhaps, it was a borderline call, but Swarzak had a similar, closer pitch called a ball against Julio Lugo in the 5th. No argument there...I suppose because he hasn't yet reached prima donna status. After the 7th, Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon posted zeroes to give Boston the split.

Stars:

#3 Brendan Harris (2 for 3, BB, 1B, 2B)

#2 Luis Ayala (2 IP, H, 0 R) - Kept Boston scoreless in the 8th and 9th, gave us a chance to come back

#1 Joe Crede (1 for 4, HR) - Accounted for the only run.

I considered Swarzak for a "star", but in the end, 6 IP / 3 R is pretty middle of the road. Not really any runs saved there.

Duds:

#3 Mike Redmond (0 for 2) - Grounded into a big double play with two on in the second.

#2 Denard Span (0 for 3, 3 SO) - At least he had a sacrifice bunt

#1 Todd Tichenor - Don't think he's earning a playoff spot yet...

Game 49: Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins

Adam Peterson — Thu, 28 May 2009 12:50:13 -0000

First Pitch: 12:10pm CDT
TV: FSN
Radio: Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy: Over the Monster

Preview

After taking two of the first three games at home against the Red Sox, the Twins look to take the series and rise above the .500 mark once again. Minnesota is red hot, winning 6 of its last 7 games, including 5 of 6 at home (where they are 19-10 on the season). Coincidentally, this hot streak started with Mauer's move to the #2 spot in the order. After the move, the offense has been on fire, scoring 58 runs (8.3 per game), no fewer than 4 runs in any of the games. Offense doesn't tell the whole story. During the same 7 games, the Twins have allowed a total of 18 runs (2.6 per game), with quality starts in each of the six wins.

Starting Pitchers

Anthony Swarzak

#51 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-3

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Sep 10, 1985

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Anthony Swarzak	1-0	1	1	0	0	0	0	7.0	5	0	0	0	2	3	0.00	1.00

Anthony Swarzak had a very solid debut last Saturday, pitching 7 innings, giving up 5 hits, 2 walks and zero runs against the Brewers. Today will be a good test against one of baseball's better, more patient offenses (although one that has been outscored by the Twins, 252 to 250). Can Swarzak build on his debut and shut down Boston?

Josh Beckett

#19 / Pitcher / Boston Red Sox

Height: 6-5

Weight: 220

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: May 15, 1980

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Josh Beckett	4-2	9	9	0	0	0	0	55.2	61	34	31	5	24	51	5.01	1.53

Even though he has a solid 4-2 record, Josh Beckett has struggled so far this season, as evidenced by a 5.01 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. However, he has one of the largest ERA-FIP differentials in baseball, sporting a 3.86 FIP. At first glance, luck appears to be a factor as hitters have a .346 BABIP against Beckett. Again, the stats are misleading, as his BABIP is driven largely by a staggering 26.6% line drive rate (up slightly from 2008's 25.2%). Since 2007, Beckett has not been the same dominant star that we saw win two world series rings. Will he return to form this afternoon?

Lineup

Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins

05/28/09 1:10 PM EDT

Boston Red Sox	Minnesota Twins
Jacoby Ellsbury - CF	Denard Span - CF
Dustin Pedroia - 2B	Joe Mauer - DH
J.D. Drew - RF	Justin Morneau - 1B
Kevin Youkilis - 1B	Jason Kubel - RF
Mike Lowell - 3B	Joe Crede - 3B
David Ortiz - DH	Brendan Harris - SS
Jason Varitek - C	Delmon Young - LF
Jeff Bailey - LF	Mike Redmond - C
Julio Lugo - SS	Matt Tolbert - 2B

Baltimore 5, Minnesota 4: Twins Leave One on the Bases

Adam Peterson — Fri, 08 May 2009 01:57:02 -0000

In front of at least 36,698 empty seats, the Twins dropped their third road game in a row, 5-4 to the Baltimore Orioles. Minnesota falls to 13-16, and has managed only five runs in the three losses. This is the second time the Twins have been swept in a short 2-game series on the road to an AL East opponent.

Tonight was a night of missed opportunities, as the Twins outhit the Orioles 14 to 9. The Baltimore pitchers and fielders did a good job of limiting the damage, walking only 2 batters and stranding 9 base runners. Minnesota did a good job hitting Baltimore starter Brad Bergesen hard, but excellent outfield defense by the Orioles robbed Twins hitters of at least three hits. In particular, Justin Morneau was victimized by a diving Adam Jones catch in the third and a leaping Nick Markakis catch at the right centerfield wall in the fifth. If those two balls had dropped, the Twins would have scored at least three additional runs in the two innings.

The Orioles were more efficient, scoring three runs on a Melvin Mora solo homerun and an Aubrey Huff 2-run shot. Both homeruns were hit off Minnesota starter Glen Perkins, continuing the regression to his xFIP (5.00 entering tonight's game). Coming into the game, Perkins had given up 49 fly balls, but only one homerun, and his HR/FB rate was bound to regress at some point. 10 fly balls later, Perkins has now given up 3 homeruns on the season.

After the homeruns, Perkins settled down, giving up only a single (erased by a double play) and a walk over the next 11 batters, allowing the Twins to claw back from a 4-2 deficit with single runs in the 6th and 7th innings. Matt Guerrier pitched a scoreless seventh, extending his scoreless streak to 9 innings, but Baltimore got to Jose Mijares for 3 hits and his first run allowed this season in the bottom of the 8th to put Baltimore ahead for good.

Notes and stars of the game follow the jump.

Notes:

- Adam Jones has a very strong arm. In the third inning, Jones threw home to hold Span at third base. The Baltimore TV feed (to which I am limited living here in Maryland) actually registered the throw at 98 MPH on the radar gun after reaching the catcher.

- Matt Tolbert is a breath of fresh air in the #2 slot. He was on base twice and executed a perfect bunt in the 7th to advance Denard Span to third, allowing Joe Mauer to drive in the game tying fourth run.

- Justin Morneau hit the ball well, but he's pressing at the plate. The front shoulder is flying out against right and left handers, resulting in weak fly balls to left field.

- No Twins hitter is more in need of a day off than Nick Punto. After another 0-4 day, he's 0 for his last 16 at bats and now has a .190/.293/.496 line, even worse than his historically bad 2007 performance.

- Joe Crede finally hit the ball well on a consistent basis tonight. He doubled to deep right center, lined out to left, and singled sharply to left in his first three at bats. As a low ball hitter, Bergesen's sinking fastball was right down Crede's alley.

- The Minnesota run producers, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel, left a total of 8 runners on base tonight. The Twins 1-3 hitters, Span, Tolbert and Mauer reached base a combined eight times, scoring only two runs (both by Span).

Stars of the game:

3 *** Joe Mauer. After going 0-7 with 3 strikeouts in Detroit, Joe Mauer got back in the groove by going 3-4 with a walk. All three hits were sharp ground balls and line drives right back up the middle.

2 ** Denard Span. 2-5, scoring two runs and made a couple very good catches in center field.

1 * Matt Guerrier. Pitched a scoreless seventh inning, allowing the Twins a chance to take the lead in the 8th.

Game 29: Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles

Adam Peterson — Thu, 07 May 2009 21:13:22 -0000

Fortunately, the forecast in Baltimore this evening calls for partly cloudy skies, no rain until Friday morning. The Twins look to bounce back from a lethargic (other than Denard Span in left field) 4-1 six inning loss in the rain last night. Glen Perkins, the Twins' most effective starting pitcher through the first five turns, faces Baltimore rookie Brad Bergesen. I know very little about Bergesen, other than the fact he's been pounded pretty well in his three starts. However, he gave up all of his 3 HR and 5 of his 11 runs in one home start against Texas. In Bergesen's two other starts, he's shown an ability to keep the ball on the ground with 27 GB to 10 FB.

Lineup

Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles

05/07/09 7:05 PM EDT

Minnesota Twins	Baltimore Orioles
Denard Span - CF	Brian Roberts - 2B
Matt Tolbert - 2B	Adam Jones - CF
Joe Mauer - C	Nick Markakis - RF
Justin Morneau - 1B	Melvin Mora - 3B
Jason Kubel - DH	Aubrey Huff - DH
Joe Crede - 3B	Ty Wigginton - 1B
Michael Cuddyer - RF	Lou Montanez - LF
Delmon Young - LF	Gregg Zaun - C
Nick Punto - SS	Cesar Izturis - SS

Glen Perkins

#15 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-0

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Mar 02, 1983

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Glen Perkins	1-2	5	5	0	0	0	0	35.0	33	13	13	1	6	20	3.34	1.11

Brad Bergesen

#64 / Pitcher / Baltimore Orioles

Height: 6-2

Weight: 215

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Sep 25, 1985

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brad Bergesen	1-0	3	3	0	0	0	0	15.2	20	11	9	3	6	8	5.17	1.66