SB Nation User Blog: Adam Peterson

Beyond the Boxscore: 2009 AL Central On Paper

Adam Peterson — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 15:02:58 -0000

Beyond the Boxscore: 2009 AL Central On Paper

BtB breaks down the 2009 AL Central race on paper. Curiously, the White Sox grade out best, followed closely by Minnesota and Detroit. The Twins are considered "lucky" for ending up with almost identical ERA and FIP, given far below average defense.

Five Reasons the Twins Can Win This Series

Adam Peterson — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 11:33:47 -0000

For over 24 hours now, we've heard all the reasons there's no chance the Twins can beat the mighty Yankees in the ALDS. Massive payroll, won 103 games, scored 915 runs, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, etc. Yesterday's 7-2 loss only reinforces the lopsided matchup in the eyes of most media and fans. Since we're not going to hear much other than the Yankees inevitable march to the World Series on the ESPN and TBS coverage, here are five real reasons to be optimistic about the Twins' chances in the remaining four games:

The great equalizer - a five game series. It's much easier for David to beat Goliath in a short series as opposed to a seven game series or a full season. It's not a coincidence that the Yankees' last three playoff runs have ended in ALDS losses to the Angels (2005, in 5 games), Tigers (2006, 4 games) and Indians (2007, 4 games). Also, New York won game one in both 2005 and 2006 before losing each series.
Multiple Off Days - At this point of the season, it's pretty clear that Brian Duensing, however gritty on the mound, is the Twins' #4 starter behind Baker, Blackburn and Pavano. With off days on Thursday, Saturday and Tuesday, the Twins could go with Blackburn-Pavano-Baker and then bring Blackburn back in game 5 on normal rest. Seriously, the five game schedule looks like an NBA playoff series with the off days.
New York Rotation - Beyond CC Sabathia, there is a lot more inconsistency and uncertainty than you might think. A.J. Burnett has been wild at times (97 walks in 207 innings) and was awful in August (0-4 with a 6.03 ERA), Andy Pettitte has allowed 17 runs over his last five starts (27.1 innings), showing signs of wearing down after 194.2 innings, and who knows who NY will throw in Game 4. Joba? Mitre? Bring it on. Of course, NY could bring out CC in Game 4 and AJ in Game 5 if needed, but frankly, I have more confidence in Blackburn in a Game 5 than in AJ.
New York Pressure - The Twins are the underdog. No one expects them to beat the mighty Yankees, so they can play as loose as they want. On the other hand, the Yankees live in a fishbowl. All the Yankees fans I've talked to are expecting a sweep, and are already scouting the Angels and Red Sox for the ALCS. Once Minnesota forces game 4 and 5, there are going to be a lot of arms approaching pinstriped throats.
The Metrodome - I'm not sure any team, including the Yankees, can beat the Twins in the Metrodome right now. There is some serious positive mojo going on, given the sweep of the Royals, Vikes-Packers, and one game playoff. If the Twins can win these two home games (like I think they will), all they need is a split in the remaining two games in NY. A difficult, but certainly a realistic task.

All said, the outcome of Game 1 hasn't changed my series prediction. Twins shock the world by taking Game 5 in NY, celebrating on the new Yankee Stadium field. Who's with me?

Game 159: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers

Adam Peterson — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 12:05:24 -0000

First Pitch: 1:05pm CDT
TV: FS North
Radio: Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy: Bless You Boys

After last night's disappointing 7-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers (85-73), the Minnesota Twins' (82-76) backs are squarely against the wall this afternoon in Detroit. Three games ahead with four to play, and a magic number of 2, the Tigers can clinch the division with a win. The Twins need a win today plus a lot of help to gain at least two additional games over the weekend. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

Starting Pitchers

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Scott Baker	14-9	31	31	1	1	0	0	189.0	179	95	94	27	43	157	4.48	1.17

Fortunately for the Twins, our most consistent pitcher is on the mound this afternoon. For the most part, Baker's 2009 numbers are a repeat of his solid 2008 season. K/9: 7.48 (2009) to 7.36 (2008). BB/9: 2.05 to 2.19. BABIP: .288 to .290. Opponent's batting average: .251 to .249. GB/FB: 0.73 to 0.72. Etc. The only real difference in Baker's peripherals is a higher HR/FB rate (10.1% to 8.5% - suggesting a regression to mean) and a large drop in LOB% (69.4% to 78.7%), both of which drive a higher FIP (4.02 to 3.79) and much higher ERA (4.48 to 3.45).

After a very good August (4-0, 3.18 ERA), Baker has seen some struggles during his five September starts (2-2, 4.66 ERA). None of Baker's last three outings (CLE, DET, @KC) have been quality starts, and the Tigers hit him hard on 9/20, with 8 hits and 4 runs in 4.2 innings. Minnesota needs Baker to come up big in his last regular season start of the season.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Nate Robertson	2-2	27	5	0	0	0	0	43.2	50	29	27	4	28	33	5.56	1.79

Robertson's 2009 season has been full of ups and downs. After spending the first three months in the bullpen, he spent most of July and August on the DL, making his first start of the season on 9/3. He's only pitched 43.2 innings, so his arm is definitely fresh for this time of the year. He doesn't know where the ball is going (28 walks in 43.2 innings), but his arm is fresh...

In the past, I'd be concerned about Robertson's left-handedness, but this season, the Twins hitters' numbers are a little better against lefties (.281/.340/.435) than righties (.270/.344/.420). Unfortunately, today is a day game for the Twins, and we're 10 games below .500 (23-33) in early starts. On the other hand, Detroit is 8 games above .500 during the day (32-24), so again, an uphill battle.

2009: Are the Twins Still Doing the "Little Things"

Adam Peterson — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 03:03:59 -0000

I've been meaning to write this article for some time now, but the data has eluded me thus far. As I showed during the offseason, in 2008, the Twins were a full 27 runs better than any other team in the majors (42 runs above average) doing the "little things", including baserunning and directional hitting (moving the runner over and other "productive outs"). Last year, these "little things" were a key to our offense outperforming the rest of the league relative to other measures like wOBA or OPS.

So how are the Twins doing in 2009? I've run the data as of July 28th, and the team by team spreadsheet is posted here. As many of you have probably noticed this year, we've taken a decent sized step backward, slipping to 14th in the majors at +3.00 runs due to these "little things". Considering that on 7/28 we were about 2/3 of the way through the season, I estimate that solely due to these aspects of baseball that do not appear in the box score, the Twins are about 25 runs worse than in 2008. Prorated over a full season, that's over 3 marginal wins, enough to put the Twins right at Detroit's heels.

Team

2008 "Little Things"

Team

2009 "Little Things"

1. Minnesota Twins

+42.22 RAA

14. Minnesota Twins

+3.00 RAA

2. Los Angeles Angels

3. Philadelphia Phillies

+15.19

+11.71

1. Los Angeles Angels

2. Toronto Blue Jays

+26.94

+17.30

As you can see, Mike Scioscia has the Angels at the top again in 2009. How do we explain the Twins' drop? After the jump, I'll look a little deeper into the Twins numbers, comparing to last season.

Before I get to the "little things", how are the Twins hitting as a team, according to the "standard" metrics (i.e., hits, homeruns, strikeouts, etc.)?

Season	"Standard" RAA**
2008	+22.81
2009	+44.30

** Prorated over a full season

As of 7/28, the Twins have improved by over 20 runs due to "standard" batting. This makes sense, considering the success of Mauer, Kubel, Cuddyer, Morneau and Span. As a team, our wOBA (generally considered the best correlation to runs scored) improved from .328 last year to .333 in 2009. Over a full season of plate appearances, this difference in wOBA corresponds to about +25 runs, pretty much in line with my "standard" RAA calculations.

So if we've hit better by a factor of 25 runs, why has overall run production fallen from 5.21 runs per game in 2008 to 4.89 runs per game (as of 7/28) in 2009? Over a full season, this corresponds to a nearly 50 run drop this year. How do we explain a nearly 75 run swing based on the "standard" metrics? First, we have to consider the oft-cited drop in batting average with runners in scoring position (RISP). After a historically good season, the Twins' RISP has fallen over 30 points. We're getting the hits this year, but not at the times to score runs most efficiently.

Season	Avg with RISP
2008	.305
2009	.272

RISP explains much, probably around half, of the 75 run gap this year. That still leaves nearly 40 runs unaccounted for. Based on my analysis, the remainder of this gap can be traced to the "little things". I won't go into a lengthy description of the process here, if you want more details, check out this article from March. As shown above, the Twins have gone from +42 RAA in 2008 down to +3 this year. How did this happen? To answer, we need to look at the two aspects of the "little things":

Baserunning

Stolen bases and caught stealing statistics are widely available in box scores and a variety of forums. It's more difficult to quantify the value of a baserunner going first to third on a base hit, scoring from first on a double, etc. I've written a more comprehensive article on 2008 baserunning here. I break baserunning down into three pieces: stealing bases, outs on the base paths (other than caught stealing), and "other", i.e., advancing first to third more or less often than average.

Season	Overall RAA	Steal	Outs	Other
2009	-0.99 (18th)	-2.49	+0.17	+1.33
2008	+8.44 (7th)	-4.34	-7.35	+20.13

Around 9.5 of the 39 run reduction in the "little things" can be traced to baserunning. As the table shows, the Twins have improved stealing bases and avoiding outs on the base paths. However, we have regressed by almost 20 runs on the base paths. If you think about it, this isn't too surprising considering Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla have played less, Cuddyer and Crede have played more.

Directional Hitting

The second component of the "little things" focuses on directional hitting, putting the ball in a place to allow runners to advance, hitting the ball to the right side, avoiding strikeouts, etc.In 2008, the Twins were by far the best in the majors. While the Twins are above average this year, they have dropped off significantly from last year, nearly a 30 run drop.

Season	Runs (MLB rank)
2009	+4.00 (9th)
2008	+33.78 (1st)

Conclusions

As many of us have suspected this year, the Twins have cost themselves a number of runs by failing to repeat 2008's performance with RISP and doing the "little things" to score runs and win ballgames. The numbers verify what we've seen. I'm not going to pin this season's .500 record on this, the pitching staff shares plenty of blame, but a 40 run drop due to these "little things" means roughly 4 marginal wins...which would put us right on the Tigers' heels.

Next, I'll focus on the individuals. Last year, Joe Mauer was the best in baseball at the "little things" (scary given his standard batting numbers). How are he and the rest of the Twins doing this year?

We've Seen This Script Before: Twins Lose 11-1

Adam Peterson — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 11:29:21 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

2 months ago: Texas Rangers' Marlon Byrd, left, is congratulated by third base coach Dave Anderson (16) following his solo home run in the second inning of a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins, Thursday, Aug. 20, 2009 in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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The Texas Rangers drove another nail in the coffin of the Minnesota Twins 2009 season, beating the Twins 11-1 last night in Arlington. Tell me if any of you have seen this script before:

Twins starter gets knocked around early, putting the team in a deep hole? Check. After cruising through a 1-2-3 first inning, Anthony Swarzak began the second by hanging a breaking ball to Marlon Byrd. Texas up 1-0. Home runs in the third by Julio Borbon and Byrd's second of the game put the Twins in a 4-0 hole.

Missed opportunities with runners in scoring position? Check. In the top of the 6th, down 4-0, Denard Span and Orlando Cabrera started off the inning with back to back singles. Joe Mauer hit a screaming liner to third, which Michael Young snared. One out. Michael Cuddyer followed with a single to load the bases, chasing Texas starter Derek Holland. Enter flame throwing Neftali Feliz. After lining a 98 MPH fastball straight back, Joe Crede's bat shattered into a million pieces with a weak grounder right to third base. Double play, end of inning, end of threat.

Gardy leaves starter in an inning too long? Check. After gutting his way through a single and a walk in the 5th, Swarzak trotted out to start the bottom of the 6th after the Twins rally fell short. Nelson Cruz said "Thank you very much", driving a home run over the left field fence. 5-1 Rangers. Swarzak's body language said it all. He was cooked. After a walk to Taylor Teagarden (one of the great names in baseball), Gardy had finally seen enough.

Mediocre middle relief throws gasoline on the fire? Check. Enter Bobby Keppel. Elvis Andrus double, Borbon double, Young double. Texas up 8-1. Exit Bobby Keppel. Thanks for playing.

Twins play out the string, failing to mount a threat down 7 runs? Check. After the 6th, the Twins failed to get a runner to second base.

Notes, studs and duds follow the jump.

Notes from last night's game:

Delmon Young's hot streak continued with a solo home run to left field in the 5th inning. He was 2 for 4 in the game, and is now batting .267/.290/.857 with 5 HR and 13 RBI in August. His season OPS is approaching .700 (now at .687).
Justin Morneau sat out the last three games with an inner ear infection and dizziness. He flew back to Minnesota yesterday to see a specialist and see if additional medications will help.
Neftali Feliz is really good. He looks like this year's version of 2002 K-Rod or 2008 David Price. While his long term future is in the Rangers rotation, Texas is doing the right thing to limit his innings and pitch him in high leverage late game situations. Nolan Ryan has really built a solid core of young pitchers, with Holland, Hunter, Feliz, and others.
Joe Mauer was robbed of line drive hits a few times yesterday by a diving Josh Hamilton in center field, third baseman Michael Young, and Marlon Byrd in left field. He could easily have been 4 for 4. Let's hope he's not 3 hits short of batting .400 this year.

Studs:

1. Marlon Byrd: 2 HR, 4 RBI, Byrd put Texas up for good in the third.

2. Neftali Feliz: Ended the Twins threat in the 6th, allowing only a Redmond single in 1.2 innings.

3. Julio Borbon: 3 for 5, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI. Showed some pop for a speedster.

Duds:

1. Bobby Keppel. Three batters, three doubles.

2. Joe Crede. 0 for 3 with the key GIDP in the 6th.

3. Jeff Manship: 5 hits in 1.2 innings. Some of the hits were quite unlucky (grounder that Cabrera could have had, etc.), but he may have been lucky to give up only 2 runs.

Game 121: Minnesota Twins (58-62) at Texas Rangers (67-52)

Adam Peterson — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 14:11:15 -0000

First Pitch: 7:05pm CDT
TV: FS-N
Radio: Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy: Lone Star Ball

After a second straight come from behind victory last night in Arlington, the Twins look to take 3 out of 4 tonight against the Rangers. At four games below .500, Minnesota needs a long, hot streak in order to climb back into the thick of the AL Central race. Where better to kick off such a streak than Texas, where it's too hot and humid to even play a day getaway game?

Starting Pitchers

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Derek Holland	6-7	26	13	1	1	0	1	97.2	104	57	53	16	32	79	4.88	1.39

Rookie Derek Holland is considered the second highest pitching prospect (to Neftali Feliz) in the Texas organization. A four-pitch left hander, Holland features a low 90's fastball, slider, curve and change. His rookie season, as for most, has been one of ups and downs. Over his last four starts, he's been very good, pitching 28.2 IP, 16 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 8 BB, 25 SO over the last month. In a start against Minnesota on July 19th, the Twins managed 3 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks over 4 innings. Sounds like more wasted opportunities to me...

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Anthony Swarzak	3-6	11	11	0	0	0	0	53.2	68	37	35	8	18	30	5.87	1.60

It's time for Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson to earn his paycheck. Swarzak has been an absolute mess in his three August starts, listed below. He's got an 18.00 ERA and 3.25 WHIP over the three starts. The only good news? His FIP is lower than his ERA (9.08), primarily because he's only allowed one walk this month...it's still terrible though. We should know after the first couple innings whether Swarzak will have a chance to see the 5th inning for the first time this month.

Aug. 15: 4.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, 2 HR
Aug. 07: 1.0 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2 HR
Aug. 01: 3.0 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0 HR

Lineup

Will be posted closer to game time. Expect to see Mauer DH, as he's caught the last three games and had a rough night behind the plate last night. Holland is a left hander, so Kubel may sit as well. I'm guessing Harris at 1B, Young-Gomez-Cuddyer in the OF and Mauer at DH?

UPDATE: Duh. Forgot Span. Cuddyer is at 1B. I was wondering about that...with both Kubel and Morneau sitting, the bottom of the order is a little soft.

Lineup

Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers

08/20/09 8:05 PM EDT

Minnesota Twins	Texas Rangers
Denard Span - RF	Julio Borbon - DH
Orlando Cabrera - SS	Michael Young - 3B
Joe Mauer - DH	Josh Hamilton - CF
Michael Cuddyer - 1B	Marlon Byrd - LF
Joe Crede - 3B	Ian Kinsler - 2B
Delmon Young - LF	Nelson Cruz - RF
Mike Redmond - C	Hank Blalock - 1B
Carlos Gomez - CF	Taylor Teagarden - C
Nick Punto - 2B	Elvis Andrus - SS

Mauer's 4 RBI Not Quite Enough, Twins Lose to Royals

Adam Peterson — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 00:25:38 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

3 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Michael Cuddyer, right, talks with home plate umpire James Hoye after striking out against the Kansas City Royals to end the third inning of a baseball game, Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2009, in Minneapolis. The Twins won 7-1. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

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Royals 5, Twins 4

When one hitter drives in four runs and the pitchers allow a total of five runs, one would figure a team has a pretty good chance of the other eight batters driving in at least one more run. Unfortunately, when we're talking about the 2009 Minnesota Twins, expectations go right out the window. This afternoon against the Kansas City Royals, Joe Mauer drive in four runs with a double and a 3-run homer. The rest of the Twins lineup? Other than a Nick Punto double to lead off the third inning, zilch. Four singles and seven walks, not a single run.

Out of the gate, Royals leadoff batter David DeJesus tripled up the right center field gap. After a Willie Bloomquist groundout, Kansas City was up 1-0 before many of us even realized the game had started. The Twins answered with a Mauer double, scoring Denard Span to tie the game. After a 1-2-3 second inning, Twins starter Carl Pavano appeared to get into a groove. Unfortunately, Carl had an 8.64 ERA against Kansas City in 2009 for a reason. In the third, the Royals went: walk, single, strikeout, single, double to plate three runs and go up 4-1. An Alex Gordon homer in the fourth put the Royals up 5-1. I don't know about the rest of you, but I was thinking "here we go again...".

Fortunately, Mr. Joe Mauer is still a Minnesota Twin. After two outs (Redmond and Punto, go figure), Denard Span walked and Orlando Cabrera singled. Mauer followed with a home run to right center (really, this one wasn't to left field) to bring the Twins to within one run. We were back in the game.

Pavano got through a scoreless sixth, bringing up the bottom of the Twins order. Then the Twins let a golden opportunity slip through their fingers. Royals starter Gil Meche had already thrown 83 pitches through five innings, and given his 90-100 pitch limit he was pulled for reliever Robinson Tejeda. Tejeda threw a total of six pitches, walking Joe Crede and falling behind Mike Redmond, 2-0. By this point, Trey Hillman had seen enough, so he brought in Jamey Wright, who walked Mike Redmond. First and second, no one out, down one, Nick Punto at the plate. An obvious sacrifice situation. Unfortunately, Ron Gardenhire forgot one simple fact. NICK PUNTO SUCKS AT BUNTING! LNP failed to get the bunt down, striking out after bunting the third strike foul. A wasted opportunity to move the runners over. Wright walked Span to load the bases, bringing up Orlando Cabrera in a hero situation. What did he do? Grounded into a double play to end the threat and let the Royals off the hook.

By this point, it was obvious that the air was out of the Twins' tires. Over the next three innings, against the worst bullpen in the American League, all the Twins could manage were two walks. Of course, some of this was due to Trey Hillman not being allergic to throwing his closer for more than one inning, as he put his most reliable bullpen arm, Joakim Soria out for both the 8th and 9th innings to close out the game. How about that, and old-time-baseball save. Ballgame.

Studs, duds and a few notes after the jump

Notes:

Many, including me, will highlight Punto's failed bunt attempt as a key to the Twins loss this afternoon. While I think this played a key role in deflating the team, one can make an argument the inning would have ended scoreless regardless. With runners on second and third and one out, I would not have been surprised to see Wright intentionally walk Span to load the bases, at which point an O-Cab GIDP would still have ended the inning. We'll never know...
Even though he gave up five runs, Pavano pitched a gutty seven innings. He only gave up five hits and 3 walks over the seven innings, which isn't too bad. His problem was that the Royals took full advantage of their run scoring opportunities, bunching 3 hits and a walk to score three runs in the third.
The Twins, on the other hand, had more baserunners (14 vs 11), including 7 walks. In what appears to be a disturbing trend, we live and die by the long ball.

Studs:

1. Joe Mauer: 2-4, 2B, HR, 4 RBI. His batting average is now at .370 and climbing. He's batting .429/.467/1.123 in August.

2. Joakim Soria: 2 IP, BB, 2 SO. Clutch two inning save. I guess he hasn't had too many save opportunities lately.

3. Jesse Crain: 1 IP, H, 3 SO. He struck out the side in the 9th to give the meat of the Twins order one last chance at Soria. Denard Span (1-3, 2 R, 2 BB) was also deserving, but I have to give kudos to Crain.

Duds:

1. Nick Punto: That failed bunt was a killer. He did have a double though.

2. Orlando Cabrera: 1-5, 0-2 with RISP, killer GIDP. Just about anything else would have tied up the game.

3. Michael Cuddyer: 0-4, 0-2 with RISP. So much for his career success against Meche.

Game 114: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

Adam Peterson — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 11:43:35 -0000

First Pitch: 12:10pm CDT
TV: FS-N
Radio: Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy: Royals Review

After splitting the first two games against Kansas City (6-14 L, 7-1 W), the Twins look to take the rubber game of the series this afternoon at the Metrodome. After a stellar performance from Francisco Liriano last night (7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 8 SO, 1 BB), the Twins look to Carl Pavano to start the ball rolling toward some degree of consistency in the starting rotation.

Some additional notes of interest:

Delmon Young is on fire, finally. He's on a 6 game hitting streak, batting .333 (8 for 24) with 6 runs, 2 HR and 4 RBI since August 4th. Delmon is driving the ball with authority, and at least over the past three games, he's given us a glimpse of that long awaited power stroke. However, he is 2 for 23 (.087) for his career against Gil Meche, so we could see a Span-Gomez-Cuddyer configuration in the outfield.
Michael Cuddyer has destroyed Meche over his career, going 7 for 13 (.538) with a HR and 3 RBI. Let's hope his success continues.

Starting Pitchers

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carl Pavano	1-0	1	1	0	0	0	0	7.0	5	0	0	0	0	5	0.00	.71

With one start as a member of the Minnesota Twins under his belt, Carl Pavano looks like the real deal. While his season totals (5.09 ERA, 155 hits allowed in 132.2 IP), Carl's peripherals tell a different story, as his FIP (4.18) is much lower than his ERA. The hits allowed appear to be driven by a high .326 BABIP, resulting in approximately an extra 10 hits allowed over the season. In addition to the hits, Pavano's HR/FB (11.9%) and 65.9% strand rate are also below career averages. However, this afternoon's start could be a problem for Pavano. As good as he has been against Detroit so far in 2009, he has been hit hard by the Royals to the tune of an 8.64 ERA in 3 starts this season.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Gil Meche	4-9	19	19	1	1	0	0	108.0	113	62	54	11	49	87	4.50	1.50

This afternoon's start will be the first for Gil Meche since returning from the DL due to a back injury. Meche entered the 2009 season as the Royals #2 starter, behind Zack Greinke and ahead of last night's starter, Brian Bannister. Reports indicate that Meche will be limited to between 90 and 100 pitches today, so look for the Twins hitters to be a little more patient than usual in an attempt to knock Meche out early and get to the Royals' AL-worst bullpen (5.16 ERA) to do some damage in the 5th inning and beyond.

Lineup

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

08/13/09 1:10 PM EDT

Kansas City Royals	Minnesota Twins
David DeJesus - LF	Denard Span - CF
Willie Bloomquist - CF	Orlando Cabrera - SS
Billy Butler - 1B	Joe Mauer - DH
Mike Jacobs - DH	Justin Morneau - 1B
Alberto Callaspo - 2B	Jason Kubel - LF
Mark Teahen - RF	Michael Cuddyer - RF
John Buck - C	Joe Crede - 3B
Alex Gordon - 3B	Mike Redmond - C
Yuniesky Betancourt - SS	Nick Punto - 2B

Twins Fail to Drive 'em Home; Fall to Indians 2-1

Adam Peterson — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 00:07:51 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

3 months ago: Minnesota Twins pitcher Nick Blackburn slides on the grass going after a bunt by Cleveland Indians' Shin-Soo Choo in the sixth inning in a baseball game, Thursday, Aug. 6, 2009, in Cleveland. Choo was safe at first base for a single. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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Is this really the same team that led the majors last season with a .305 batting average with runners in scoring position (RISP)? This afternoon in Cleveland, the Twins wasted a solid start from Nick Blackburn (6.1 IP, 2 R) by going an astounding 0 for 13 with runners in scoring position. And it could have been worse. If it weren't for a Fausto Carmona wild pitch in the 4th inning, the Twins would have been shut out.

Inning after inning, the opportunities came. It was just that painful.

1st inning: Denard Span on 2nd, one out. Joe Mauer grounds out (0-1), Span does not advance. Justin Morneau walks; Jason Kubel grounds out weakly to first (0-2).

2nd inning: Michael Cuddyer on 3rd, Joe Crede on 2nd. Nobody out. Piece of cake to get at least one run, right? Mike Redmond lineout (0-3). Alexi Casilla strikeout (0-4), big surprise there. Denard Span groundout to the pitcher (0-5). End of inning, three totally unproductive outs.

3rd inning: Orlando Cabrera on 2nd, one out. Morneau groundout (0-6), barely beat out a double play, Cabrera to third. Kubel with another weak groundout (0-7) to the pitcher, end of inning.

At this point, three innings, zero runs. 0 for 7, with a lot of weak outs.

4th inning: Cuddyer double, no one out. Crede strikeout (0-8), Cuddyer steals third. Redmond groundout with the infield in (0-9). Finally, a Carmona wild pitch scores Cuddyer. Twins on top 1-0.

5th inning: Cabrera on second, Mauer on first, one out. Morneau grounds into fielder's choice (0-10). Kubel lineout (0-11).

6th inning: Cuddyer on second, two out. Casilla grounds out (0-12).

8th inning: Carlos Gomez on second, two out. Crede strikes out (0-13).

Yuck. That's the story of the game right there. 11 at bats with runners in scoring position over the first five innings. No hits, not even a productive out to advance the runner or drive in with a sacrifice fly.

Studs and duds after the jump. I'm going to throw up now.

Studs:

1. Michael Cuddyer: 2 for 3, double, walk, run. Also threw out Grady Sizemore on a first to third in the bottom of the first inning.

2. Nick Blackburn: Bounced back with 6+ solid innings. More baserunners (7 hits, 2 walks) than you want to see, but he got out of a few jams.

3. Orlando Cabrera: Hot start with the Twins continues. 2 for 3 and a nice sacrifice bunt.

Duds:

1. Jason Kubel: He ended three separate innings with runners in scoring position without even getting the ball out of the infield.

2. Mike Redmond: 0 for 4, two chances with a runner on third and less than two outs. Of course he didn't manage a fly ball.

3. Alexi Casilla: 0 for 3, strikeout. Batting average is now down to .163.

Game 108: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians

Adam Peterson — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 12:20:52 -0000

First Pitch: 11:05am CDT
TV: MLB.TV
Radio: Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy: Let's Go Tribe!

It's an early start this afternoon in Cleveland (morning for those back home in Minnesota). After splitting the first two games, the Twins (53-54) look to take their sixth straight series against an AL Central foe and return to the .500 mark.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Nick Blackburn	8-5	21	21	3	0	0	0	138.2	160	67	59	14	30	58	3.83	1.37

After spending much of the first half as the Twins' most dependable starter, Nick has hit a rough patch in the second half. In his last four starts, Blackburn has given up 30 hits and 21 runs (all earned) in 22.1 innings. Ouch. However, during these starts, his GB/FB, HR and SO/BB rates have stayed pretty much in line with season totals. His BABIP has regressed from around .270 to .305 at this point. Hopefully the regression is done.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Fausto Carmona	2-6	13	13	0	0	0	0	65.2	73	57	52	9	45	37	7.13	1.80

After a horrid start to the 2009 season, Fausto Carmona spent two months in Arizona working on his mechanics. Last week, in his first start back, Carmona walked 4 batters in 5 innings. The control problems continue. Look for the Twins to be very patient against Carmona today. Jason Kubel (10 for 20, 2 HR) has had success against Carmona in the past, let's hope it continues today.

Lineup

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians

08/06/09 12:05 PM EDT

Minnesota Twins	Cleveland Indians
Denard Span - CF	Grady Sizemore - CF
Orlando Cabrera - SS	Asdrubal Cabrera - SS
Joe Mauer - DH	Shin-Soo Choo - RF
Justin Morneau - 1B	Jhonny Peralta - 3B
Jason Kubel - LF	Travis Hafner - DH
Michael Cuddyer - RF	Chris Gimenez - 1B
Joe Crede - 3B	Luis Valbuena - 2B
Mike Redmond - C	Trevor Crowe - LF
Nick Punto - 2B	Wyatt Toregas - C