Justin Wilson has flown under the radar in Indianapolis, with a 2.27 ERA in 8 starts in Indianapolis. Is he a pitcher who can help the major league team, perhaps by late June?

Wilson had another great start yesterday (May 17) against the Buffalo Bisons. He went 5.2 innings and allowed only two hits (both singles), to go with four walks and four strikeouts.  He also had nine groundouts to three flyouts, which is a very good ratio.

Overall this season, he's went 47.2 innings, and given up only 33 hits, with 34 strikeouts and 23 walks. He's had a .193 batting average against.

There are some areas for concern. The walk rate is at 4.07 BB/9, which is the lowest of his career. He is always going to walk some guys, but that in itself won't prevent him from being a decent starting pitcher. Wilson's command is better than his control. He is able to paint the corners, which is why the hit rate is so low. From watching him in Altoona last season twice, he won't throw a gimme down the middle like, for example, Jeff Karstens or 2010 Charlie Morton. Not serving up meatballs keeps his hit rate down.

The strikeout rate is what it is. At 6.43 K/9, he isn't overpowering. He can live with that in the back of the rotation, since he is left-handed. His K-rate last season was 8.45, so he might just be getting unlucky. The strikeouts might increase through time, since he doesn't have bad stuff, sitting around 90-92 MPH. Others have seen more velocity, albeit in relief outings.

One of Wilson's best attributes last season was keeping the ball in the park. In 142.2 innings in 2010 with Altoona, he only allowed four home runs. That's outstanding anti-home run work. In 2011, though, he has allowed the same four home runs with Indianapolis, in only 47.2 innings. That's still pretty good, but not the same as 2010. What drove a lot of the 2010 home-run success was a strong groundball rate. In 2010, he had a 1.65 groundball/flyball ratio. In 2011, he's had a 0.89 GB/FB. The good news is that his last two starts have been groundball-heavy, so he might be turning the corner there.

Can the Juice be loose in Pittsburgh? My biggest reservation would be the ground balls. If he shows he can pound the ground for a few more starts, I'd find a spot for him in Pittsburgh. 

It's not breaking news that Jeff Karstens isn't a good pitcher. His yearly Wins Above Replacement totals the past four seasons: 0.3, 0.1, 0.4, and 0.0. Despite doing a decent job filling in for Ross Ohlendorf, Karstens has been a shade above replacement level since forever. He gives up way too many bombs. If the Pirates think they can do better through the farm, they should try. The injured Ross Ohlendorf is slightly more productive than Karstens, but not by much. I wouldn't worry if Ohlendorf lost his rotation spot at this point. Also, Paul Maholm could be traded, opening another space in August. Either way, I'd expect Wilson to make his major-league debut in this calendar year.

Wilson hasn't answered all of his questions, but he's done almost enough to get into the Pirates' somewhat weak rotation.

Some Pirates starting pitchers have gotten off to a decent ERA start, but can they keep it up?  I'll take a look at some cases, and see if these pitchers are, in fact, headed for a rebound season.

Paul Maholm has gotten off to a good ERA start, at 2.19 after two outings. However, he has hardly looked great in the past two turns. Today against the Rockies, he was not sharp, struggling with command of his three main pitches. Worse, his fastball was sitting in the 86-88 MPH range. In the second game of the season against the Cubs, his fastball averaged 87.1 MPH, according to Fangraphs. His curveball is bigger and loopier than ever, checking in at 72 MPH vs. the Cubs.

Despite the current ERA, Paul hasn't yet been the same pitcher as he was two years ago. In 2009, his heat averaged 89.4 MPH, and he was able to mix in an effective curve at 74.6. Now, he can't even sniff 90, and the command has gone back from 2009 to now.

Can he rebound with a lot of season left? Sure. But the early returns aren't pretty, and certainly not at the 2.19 level. In the home opener, he got away with the act for 5 innings, before the opposing team dug in for batting practice in the sixth. Lady Luck has been on his side in 2011, but the luck won't last unless he can harness what made him successful in 2009.

Kevin Correia is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA. But is this smoke and mirrors as well? If he keeps pitching the way he has, I think the bats will catch up. The first thing I noticed this year is that Correia was working around 86-89 on Opening Day. When the Pirates acquired him, I figured we would get some more zip than the average Bucs starter.

In the past two games, Correia's fastball has averaged 88 MPH. The cutter has been about 87, but this still isn't where he had previous success back in 2009 with the Padres.  With the Padres, Correia had 91 MPH heat, and he established it over 50 percent of the time. This year, he has barely even touched that. I think less velocity would make him more of a Jeff Karstens or Daniel McCutchen type in the long term.

Again, Correia will have time to loosen up. But, in my opinion, a lot of the key of him recapturing his form is in the stuff. You can say he's a pitch to contact guy, so it doesn't matter where his velocity is. But 88-89 still makes a difference compared to the low 90s.

Correia and Maholm could be back to 2009 form starting next week.  But through their first two starts, I don't think either of them have been terribly impressive. 

The only Pirates starting pitcher to make a real impression is Charlie Morton with his electric sinker. If Morton keeps doing what he's doing, he'll probably have a good year. If Maholm and Correia keep it up, I think they'll run into some trouble as hitters catch up with the slow stuff.

***

I went to the Pirates home opener today, and Maholm's pitching was not the highlight.  Neither was the offense, nor the defense.  What I did like to see was the tribute to Chuck Tanner before the game.  I thought that was very well done. 

From the concessions, I picked up a Pulled Pork Pierogi Sandwich. That had, of course, pork and pierogis (ravioli-type pastas filled with potatoes, just in case you didn't know), with onion relish, on a pretzel bun. 

I thought that was good in both size and taste for ballpark food, and filled me up through the entire game.  Good high-calorie treat.

Jose Tabata is one of the most exciting players in the league today.  Tabata burst onto the scene in 2010, and surprised a lot of people.  I thought they were bringing him up too early, at just the age of 21, and didn't expect this much offense.

Nonetheless, Tabata displayed a very advanced bat right from the start, and hit .299 with a .746 OPS.  How many players have come into the league at age 21, and hit so well right out of the gate?

I researched all the players who hit .295 or better in 400 plate appearances at the age of 21, and the results will be in the table below.  After that, I'll look at Tabata's future, and just for fun, if he can possibly get to the Hall of Fame like most of the people in this table:

***

***

Many of the names that came up in this research were Hall of Famers.  60 players hit more than .295 at this age, and 30 are already Hall of Famers.  That doesn't include Shoeless Joe Jackson, who easily had the numbers but isn't eligible for induction.

Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Ken Griffey Jr. will probably be Hall of Famers on the first ballot.  Two others, Justin Upton and Tabata, are very, very early in the process of building a case on the field.

***

So, just for fun,  what would Tabata have to do to be one of these elite players that potentially gets into Cooperstown?  Tabata doesn't have much power now, and even if he adds some, I don't think he'll be getting in on home runs, RBIs, or even OPS.  I think the only way he can get in is longevity, and getting either 3000 hits, or multiple batting titles and a lot of hits

30 of the 60 players with a .295 average at age 21 made the HOF, but Tabata has a whole lot of career left.  A lot of things can go wrong from now to then.  A career nosedive and/or injury could happen.  At this point, he could follow the Francoeur/Milledge or Mike Caruso path and be a fringe bench player by 25.  Tabata could end up a solid player, which would still be fantastic (since we only gave Nady and Marte).

Personally, I would give Tabata around a 10% chance of being a HOF when it's all said and done.  He's got the tools, and as this table shows, guys who started this well ended up in the Hall more often than not.  That said, he has some things working against that.  There are a lot of years to play, and Tabata obviously would have to get in through huge quantities of hits.  You could argue up to 20% and I wouldn't argue, but I feel better around 10 for this.

Andrew McCutchen is getting most of the accolades, but Tabata could be very good as well, and my research indicates his advanced bat is not something that comes around too often.

I've got some 2011 Wins Above Replacement projections for veteran Pirates players.  How these came about is that I considered the player's production over the past 3 seasons, and weighed it accordingly (with the most recent season carrying the most weight, and so on).  Then I adjusted some for players over 30 (Diaz, Overbay), and under 26 (McCutchen).  That gives me a rough projection for Wins Above Replacement (Fangraphs version) for 2011.  If you can do a much better projection than this, then obviously feel free, and let me know what you think here.

(Note: Some players are not included (in this first build at least), such as Tabata, Alvarez, Walker, and James McDonald.  I didn't feel there was enough major league data to make a projection, particularly with the defense.  McDonald bounced between starter and relief with the Dodgers, so I wasn't comfortable there, either, until he starts full-time for another season.  I did include some old friends at the end, though).

Here are the results for V1.1:

After going through the infielders (where Chase D'Arnaud and maybe Josh Harrison are the best assets), how does the Pirates outfield depth look?  I'll look at the top 15 outfielders, along with what level they are likely to start the season and any other comments.  If you have any other changes, let me know.

1. Andrew Lambo – Triple-A. Ceiling has been compared to Andre Ethier. He had a good Arizona Fall League with a .274 average and 4 home runs
2. Starling Marte – Double-A. Very close to Top 100 overall at Baseball America. This type of player fits perfect in leadoff.
3. Robbie Grossman – Double-A. Cut his strikeout rate by a lot. The decreases in speed (15 stolen bases in 2010 compared to 35 in 2009) and potentially defense might be concerns.
4. Alex Presley – Triple-A. Andrew McCutchen a huge roadblock to a starting role in this organization for 25-year old center fielder. If last year was legit, maybe average CF.
5. Mel Rojas Jr. – Low-A. Huge pedigree with his father being a major league pitcher for ten seasons. Last season too small a sample.
6. Evan Chambers – High-A. Like Grossman, he was able to cut his Ks by a lot, so he made some progress.
7. Quincy Latimore – Double-A. 2011 a make or break year for him.  I like him, though, even from 2009.
   
8. Gorkys Hernandez – Triple-A. I don't like him, but speed and defense with light bat works in MLB (Nyjer Morgan, Rajai Davis, Julio Borbon, etc.). Needs to hit more than .260, though.
9. Jared Lakind – State College. Boom or bust Texas power bat from 2010 draft.
10. Exicardo Cayonez – Low-A.

Others:

1. Greg Polanco – State College
2. Willy Garcia – GCL
3. Dan Grovatt – Low-A
4. Rogelios Noris – High-A
5. Adalberto Santos - High-A

I've only seen 1-4, 7 and 8 in game action, so that limits the rankings a bit.  If you have any corrections or omissions, let me know.

What kind of prospect depth do the Pirates have heading into 2011?  I'll look at what we have at each position, starting with catcher, then first base, second base, shortstop, and third.  Then in another day I'll do outfielders (for which we have a lot of candidates). If I forgot anyone, let me know.

Catcher

1. Tony Sanchez

2. Elias Diaz

3. Joey Schoenfeld

4. Eric Fryer

5. Ramon Cabrera

6. Kris Watts

First Base

1. Andrew Lambo (also OF)

2. Jared Lakind (also OF)

3. Matt Hague

4. Matt Curry

5. “The Creature” Calvin Anderson

6. Aaron Baker

Second Base

1. Chase D'Arnaud (also SS)

2. Josh Harrison

3. Jarek Cunningham

4. Brock Holt
   

5. Drew Maggi
   

6. Jorge Bishop

7. Corey Wimberly

8. Brian Friday
   

9. Elevys Gonzalez

10. Jim Negrych

11. Shelby Ford

Shortstop

1. Chase D'Arnaud

2. Pedro Ciriaco

3. Josh Rodriguez

4. Jordy Mercer

5. Brock Holt

6. Drew Maggi

Third Base

1. Josh Harrison

2. Eric Avlia

3. Jeremy Farrell

4. Jordy Mercer

5. Jesus Brito

Let me know your thoughts, and if I forgot someone.

On Thursday, the MLB Network ran a countdown of the top 10 center fielders in the game today.  The criteria is who will be the best in the 2011 season.  Andrew McCutchen was named the No. 1 center fielder in all of baseball:

Greg Amsinger: "It's time to find out the number one center fielder in major league baseball is right now and he resides in Pittsburgh. The Pirates Andrew McCutchen is #1. He's just 24-years-old. In 2010 in 154 games, he hit .286, 16 home runs, 56 RBI and scored 94 runs for a team that didn't win all that much, 33 stolen bases. Now he did have five errors, tied for second most (Matt Kemp of the Dodgers). But was fifth in the National League in the stolen base department. Eight outfield assists, third best in the National League. Andrew McCutchen right now, is he the number one center fielder in major league baseball?"

The rest of the transcript is at the link.

Also this week, MLB Network's Ken Rosenthal picked Cutch as the best center fielder right now:

"I'll go with the guy that no one talks about because he plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates. That would be Andrew McCutchen. People don't realize how good a player this kid is becoming and is already. Last year amongst center fielders, fourth in OPS behind Torii Hunter (who no longer is a center fielder), Vernon Wells and Colby Rasmus. McCutchen Is a guy who is a five tool talent; stole 33 bases last year. We're going to hear a lot more about him in the years ahead and frankly, we should be hearing about him now."

Another mention is from Jayson Stark's All-Underrated team.  McCutchen was the selection in center field:

No full-time center fielder in either league had a higher on-base percentage last year (i.e., Hamilton doesn't count). No full-time center fielder in either league had more runs created. And McCutchen, Shane Victorino and Drew Stubbs were the only NL center fielders whose power/speed package produced more than 15 homers and 30 steals. No wonder McCutchen is a player who inspired one NL scout to say, "I think he'll be an All-Star."

There's also the Sports Illustrated piece from a few months ago, listing McCutchen as the biggest breakout star for 2011. He is compared to Ken Griffey Jr. in the Ben Glicksman piece. That's too much, because Junior was a once-in-a-generation talent both offensively and defensively, but it's still cool to see.

McCutchen is getting a lot of hype in the national scene, most of it well-deserved. In 2009, he was robbed of the Rookie of the Year, but after his 2010 campaign he is getting a lot of respect as one of the best players at his position, and possibly in all of baseball.

Since the Pirates will be playing games next season as well, let's take a look at the kind of roster we'll be seeing on Opening Day, as of now:

1. CF Andrew McCutchen

2. LF Jose Tabata

3. 2B Neil Walker

4. 3B Pedro Alvarez

5. 1B Lyle Overbay

6. RF Garrett Jones/Matt Diaz

7. C Chris Snyder

8. SS Ronny Cedeno

Against left-handed pitching, I'd look for Matt Diaz to hit 5th and Overbay 6th.

***
OF Matt Diaz/Garrett Jones

2B/SS Josh Rodriguez

C/Util Ryan Doumit

1B/OF <Steve Pearce, John Bowker, or Alex Presley>

1B/3B <incomplete>

***

SP James McDonald

SP Ross Ohlendorf

SP Paul Maholm

SP Kevin Correia

SP Scott Olsen

***

CL Evan Meek

SU Joel Hanrahan

RP Wil Ledezma

RP Chris Resop

LR Jeff Karstens

RP <left-handed reliever>

RP <wildcard>

***

I disagree with some of the Pirates' choices for some of the roles, but as it stands now, this will likely be fairly close to the initial offering for the 2011 season.

The latest update from Dejan Kovacevic is interesting. According to his latest blog post, the Pirates are hinting that Matt Diaz will compete in Spring Training for everyday right field duty.

I'm not impressed with the concept of using a career bench player, at age 33, as the outright starting outfielder. The Pirates, in my opinion, could come up with a better use for the playing time.

I liked the Diaz signing as a good complementary piece, but he is stretched too far as a starter. He could be a useful player, but the flaws here are apparent as well. He doesn't draw walks, has a below-average arm for right field, and, most of all, has trouble hitting right-handed pitching.

Over 849 career plate appearances against righties, Diaz has hit .269/.327/.382 for a .710 OPS and .312 wOBA. That's with a .336 BABIP that may or may not represent good luck. Given at least two-thirds of the majors' starting pitchers are right-handed, I don't see the production or upside.

Again, I don't get the concept here. If an everyday slot was needed to sign him, that would have been a dealbreaker for me. If that was the case, I would have stuck with Lastings Milledge on a one-year deal and found a platoon partner for him.

Nothing is definite, and Kovacevic may have misinterpreted the front office. Also, it's early and other moves could happen. Still, it's an interesting rumor. The Pirates are also reluctant to give up on Garrett Jones as an everyday player, suggesting that they aren't particularly interested in platooning him with Diaz, so it makes sense if this is true.

Diaz everyday would be preferable to Ryan Doumit in right field, at least.

The offensive profile of the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates has its strengths and weaknesses, but it was mostly bad.  Left field, catcher, shortstop, and especially first base were well below the league average at the plate. 

The worst position by far was first base, where Bucs first basemen actually managed to put up a .648 OPS overall. 

In this post, I'll just take a look at each position by posting a handy chart, and predict if we'll see an increase, decrease, or the same level of hitting there next season.

Here are the 2010 hitting lines for each defensive position:

Note: sOPS+ is relative to the league OPS for that position.  An sOPS+ of 100 is average offense for that position.  Over 100 is above average, below 100 is below average relative to that position.

There will be different results at some of the positions next season. With the talent in the majors now, I see five potentially improved offensive positions for 2011, and 3 that will stay mostly the same:

Same offense from 2010 to 2011:  Catcher, Shortstop, Right Field.  Ryan Doumit, Chris Snyder, and Ronny Cedeno returning will lead to basically the same hitting from catcher and shortstop (.650-.660 OPS) as 2010. Right field will probably be a combination of Lastings, John Bowker, and possibly Doumit if Bowker can't hit. This mix-and-match looks like it will be mediocre again.

Slightly more offense in 2011:  Second Base, Center Field, Left Field. Neil Walker will handle most of the 200 plate appearances given to Aki Iwamura last season. Walker will regress some, but a .775 OPS is still in the cards. Andrew McCutchen's July and August were hampered by a shoulder injury that he played through. With health, he could hit a lot more. Jose Tabata will patrol left field, and he is short on walks and power. Still, he can hit better than the .684 OPS from PIrates left fielders.

Huge improvement offensively in 2011:  Third Base and First Base. The Andy LaRoche era is over, and the Pirates' best hitting prospect in over a decade will enter his second major-league season at third. An impressive power performance will flatten the 2010 OPS mark of .723.

Pirates first basemen were awful last season. They even had the worst raw OPS out of all defensive homes for the Bucs. The two main culprits are Jeff Clement and Garrett Jones. Clement hit .189/.230/.331, and he'll never get another serious major-league shot. Garrett took over in the second half and posted a .215/.266/.392.

I'm skeptical of the second-half Garrett line, because it looked like Jones was battling shoulder issues down the stretch. I had the same impression from McCutchen and Andy LaRoche last year. Given that Jones spent over eight seasons in the minors, he wouldn't be eager to remove himself from the lineup. Given the team can be secretive about injuries, who knows?

Injury is a possible explanation for Jones. But how much does it really matter whether Jones could rebound back to serviceable? The team could probably find a safer .775-800 OPS bat, rather than risking a repeat of 2010, by continuing to expose him in the starting lineup.

Even, say, .260/.340/.400 would be much better at first base than what was used last season.

Almost any pick-up at first base would be a huge improvement. That's something to consider.

Charlie Morton and Brad Lincoln came into 2010 as high-upside starters close to making an impact in Pittsburgh.  Instead, they put up a combined 3-16 record, with both of their ERAs above 6.50. In a season of disappointments, these two were among the biggest. What happened, and is there any hope for these two in the future? I'll profile each of these cases (starting with Lincoln), and predict whether they will have success in the future.

Lincoln was the Bucs' fourth overall pick in the 2006 draft out of the University of Houston . He was seen as a decent pick at the time, although Tim Lincecum was Baseball America's #1 draft prospect. At the time, both Lincoln and Lincecum threw in the mid-90s with a plus curveball. The advantage for Lincecum was a much more developed change, and a slightly better fastball/curve. The disadvantage for him was concerns about his delivery, both for command and injury concerns.

The Pirates hoped Lincoln would reach the majors quickly, but unfortunately, he needed Tommy John surgery in 2007 spring training. That basically killed two years of development time. He was on the shelf for all of 2007, and spent 2008 getting his arm back to full strength. I wonder how much further he'd have developed by now if not for Tommy John.

2009 was a breakout season for Lincoln, as he finally charged through Double-A before meeting resistance in Triple-A. He had a combined 3.37 ERA, with 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and 1.8 walks per nine innings. Finally, he was on track to make the majors after a repeat of Triple-A.

His first two months in 2010 were uneven, with a 4.76 ERA in April, with 18 Ks in 28 innings. May was a large improvement, though, as he surged to a 2.38 ERA with 31 Ks in 34 innings. He looked ready for the majors.

Lincoln's first five starts were steady. Through the end of June, he had a 4.65 ERA. The 14 strikeouts in 31 innings were a slight red flag, although his FIP was 4.27, and he was able to limit walks and home runs.

Unfortunately, things spiraled out of control in July, as he posted a 9.61 ERA in four starts. The July FIP was 7.96, meaning he was completely over-matched. The strikeouts ran even lower, while he gave up seven home runs in just the four starts. To be fair, he did face the Pirate-killing Brewers twice in four games. But the other two teams he faced (the Astros and Padres) are not hitting powerhouses. Overall, this big-league trial showed that he needs more development.

What does Lincoln need to do to be successful? The most important thing he needs to do is throw his curveball at the ends of the strike zone. If he can't locate his biggest weapon, hitters will sit on the fastball and loft a lot of fly balls and home runs. Also, he needs to show the third offering more frequently, whether it be a slider or change. He has a close-to-average straight change, but he never uses it.

Overall, I'm confident that Lincoln could be a solid starter in 2011. Developmentally, he was between a 23- and 24-year-old in 2010, due to time missed and catch-up time from TJ. He has the prospect pedigree, and he has the stuff to go along with it. He rated higher than Jose Tabata, according to league scouts, on the Baseball America International League Top 20 Prospects this year.

The lack of strikeouts so far at the major league level is the largest concern, but nine starts just isn't enough sample size for me to write him off. Just the last four starts were disasters, and even Roy Halladay had a tough 67 innings in 2000. Once Lincoln gets 200 innings under his belt, we'll have a better idea of what he will add to the team.

Despite the rough patches in 2010, Lincoln is one of the best candidates for a major-league bounce-back in 2011.  He won't live up to his draft slot, but can still be a competitive fourth starter.

The defensive play of Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, and Pedro Alvarez have been points of contention at Bucs Dugout this season. The latest Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) numbers will further add to the discussion.

If you're not familiar with UZR or have any questions about it, this piece at Fangraphs.com contains just about everything needed to understand it and answer most questions. The introduction reads:

UZR is an advanced defensive metric that uses play-by-play data recorded by Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) to estimate each fielder’s defensive contribution in theoretical runs above or below an average fielder at his position in that player’s league and year. Thus, a SS with a UZR of zero is exactly average as compared to a SS in the same year and in the same league. If his UZR is plus, he is above average, and if it is minus, he is below average.

Essentially, it measures runs saved above average for the player's position in several categories (Arm for outfielders, Double Plays for infielders, Range and Errors for both).

For the Pirates, the data is on each of the player pages, as well as the 2010 Pirates team page, at Fangraphs.  Here are the 2010 numbers updated through the end of the season:

I'll add my thoughts after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Who was the most valuable player for the Pirates during the 2010 season? To me, there are five top candidates, and I'll put them in order from the fifth best candidate down to my number one choice:

5.  Jose Tabata - He has been a very consistent hitter in the leadoff and 2 spots. He has a .304 batting average and .758 OPS before this weekend's games. Just as importantly, he was arguably the only solid defender to receive the majority of playing time this season (if you believe the numbers).

4.  Pedro Alvarez - Pedro stumbled out of the gate, with a .411 OPS in June, but he has played much better of late, getting the OPS up to .936 in September and October to this point. Overall, he's got a .259 average, .796 OPS, 16 home runs, and 64 RBIs. Defensively, he's been bad, though, thus the lower ranking.

3.  Joel Hanrahan - His fastball and slider racked up the fourth-most strikeouts of any reliever in the majors, only trailing Carlos Marmol, Tyler Clippard, and Billy Wagner. Marmol and Clippard also racked up many more walks, which indicates how dominant Hanrahan has been. Overall, he has a 3.67 ERA with 98 strikeouts and 25 walks. His ERA is skewed by two big innings out of 72 appearances, including the 20-0 game that was lost well before he entered it.

2.  Neil Walker - We've followed him for years as a prospect. This season, he finally broke out to the tune of a .300 average and .820 OPS with 12 home runs and 66 runs driven in.  Given another new position defensively (after being a catcher and third baseman before), he struggled a lot in the beginning.  By the end of the season, though, he was probably the best defender of the infield starters.

And ... the Pirates MVP this year is ...

1.  Andrew McCutchen.  The now two-time Adam Reynolds MVP followed up a tremendous rookie season by avoiding a sophomore slump, and hitting for a .286 average with an .818 OPS, 16 home runs, 94 runs scored, 55 RBI, and 33 stolen bases. 

He's taken heat from the fanbase in several areas: batting average, aggressiveness on the basepaths, big slump in the middle of the year, not bunting enough, success in RBI opportunities, performance in the #3 spot in the lineup, and raw defensive routes.  To me, the only real concern is the last point, and he needs to tighten up his defense to be a superstar. Despite the offensive criticism, he's in the top six among centerfielders in OPS, and top four in weighted On-Base average (wOBA)

The main reason I'd pick Cutch over Walker is that he played the whole season, including little rest after an injured shoulder, and still put up the huge production. Despite getting banged up a lot, he hustled, didn't complain, and played in at least 152 games. If he's healthy, I'd imagine he's capable of even bigger numbers. McCutchen is my MVP for this year, and is the favorite for the next five years as well. He's the biggest representation of hope for long-suffering Pirates fans.

This article is a very good overview by Steve Carter of the presumptive Number 1 pick in the 2011 draft, Anthony Rendon.  We've all heard about him, but this piece gives us a lot of information from the scouts' perspectives.  Part 2 goes into much more detail about his swing, as well.

The first piece's conclusion:

To reiterate what Veteran Scout said earlier: "Plus power, plus hit tool, plus arm, solid glove" and a mechanically fantastic swing to boot. On top of all that, he adds in outstanding patience at the plate. He doesn't just dictate the at-bat the second he walks into the box, he rules it with an iron fist. Rendon has a great understanding of the strike zone, is disciplined, and has the swing built to optimize pitch tracking, quickness and raw bat speed. He has everything needed to be an all-star level player in the Major Leagues and has earned every bit of his candidacy to go No. 1 overall in the 2011 draft. 

Both pieces are very positive about his future potential.  He'll be a great talent to add to the system.

Dejan Kovacevic has a piece in the Post-Gazette on the arbitration-eligible players this offseason.

The first-time eligible players are Joel Hanrahan, Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, Lastings Milledge, Andy LaRoche, and Delwyn Young.

Players entering their 3rd year of arb are Zach Duke ($4.3 million salary in 2010), Ronny Cedeno ($1.125 million), and Wil Ledezma ($500,000).

Neal Huntington says that their intention is to tender them all, but they have to fit into the 2010 team.  Dejan adds:

The locks to be tendered are Ohlendorf, Hanrahan and Cedeno, the latter having cemented his status with management over the past two months. Karstens is in the next tier, someone Huntington describes as "having shown to us his value" as a starter and reliever this year.

Indications remain powerful from the front office that Duke, the potentially most expensive of the group, will not be tendered after a disappointing season. His salary could increase into the $6 million range, and the Pirates apparently would prefer to use such money toward other pitching.

The possibility of tendering LaRoche, Milledge and Young, all clearly phased out of the team this summer, has diminished. Ledezma has not performed as hoped, either.

There's a decent chance we let LaRoche, Milledge, and Young walk at the end of the year, even though they shouldn't be expensive in the first year.

Out of those three hitters, I'd only tender Milledge.  Without him, the reserve outfielder will be another Craig Monroe or Ryan Church.  That doesn't make sense.  Milledge hasn't hit worse than Garrett Jones, who is permanent-markered into the cleanup spot vs. RHP next season. 

The other borderline players (Karstens, Ledezma, Young, LaRoche) are debatable.  There's little to no value in that group.

The Pirates' defense has dropped off quite a bit from several years ago, when we featured the primes of Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez and Nyjer Morgan. That was before they completely stopped hitting with other teams. Still, the current Bucs could reverse course on run prevention with a couple of additions and position changes.

All the defensive statistics are still on Fangraphs.com, but I'll take a more traditional look in this post. Metrics like UZR are still experimental, and there's not enough data for most of these young players anyway. They fit into three general categories based on my take: poor, below-average to decent, or solid.

Poor defenders:

Ryan Doumit, C: Passed balls and stolen bases have become much worse. Slow release to 2nd base without any accuracy most times. Makes a weak effort to block balls in the dirt sometimes.

Ryan Doumit, OF: Limited range, moves very tentatively on flyballs in his general direction. Average arm for an outfielder. He could improve a bit with more repetition, but he'll be 30 so I wouldn't count on it.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B: Limited range for third base. He's booted or whiffed on a lot of routine balls in play, hands have been below average. Excellent arm strength and good accuracy.

Garrett Jones, 1B: He's booted plenty of easy shots as well. Poor range, poor throwing arm. He's decent in scooping throws out of the dirt, which is nice.

Decent or probably below-average defenders:

Neil Walker, 2B: Slightly below-average range, but makes plays on at least some of the balls hit to him. Good arm for the position. Slow at turning double plays.  He has some basic fielding issues and 2B-specific problems.

Chris Snyder, C: He's decent at blocking balls, and generally calls a good game. He can't control the running game, though, and he might even be worse than Doumit at framing pitches.

Lastings Milledge, OF: His defensive tools are league-average, but the mental errors are costly. UZR is around 0 this year, but the gaffes combined with the overall career defense numbers don't give me confidence that he's good.

Ronny Cedeno, SS: The physical tools are here, but like Milledge, he's prone to lapses. He started the first month or so as a Jack Wilson clone, and the quality of fielding has gone downhill from there. Lackluster career numbers.

Garrett Jones, OF: He plays adequately here, but the range isn't enough to go higher. His arm isn't much, either. He's the third-best outfielder on the roster, though. Looking ahead, he's almost 30, so the defense could drop.

Solid defenders:

Jose Tabata, OF: Pretty good. The arm plays very well, and he gets to enough balls in play with solid range for an OF. He has annoying moments like standing and watching catchable balls hit the wall, but overall is fine.

Andrew McCutchen, OF: He's a young rising superstar in CF...but the metrics don't agree. Hmmm. He's had a couple of misplays this year. He covers a tremendous amount of ground in center. Cutch is the only player with Gold-Glove upside on the team.

***

Overall, two positions are solid and one position is making a lot of money (catcher), so those are set. I'm not confident in Alvarez or Walker becoming good at their current slots, so I think it makes some sense, this offseason, to put them in more natural positions of first for Alvarez and third for Walker. Walker would be more comfortable at third, because of his experience there. He also wouldn't have to turn double plays and his range is a better match. Alvarez would have fewer chances at first base.

Looking to improve at 2B and SS, I'd check if Iwamura is healthy and in good shape by next year and see if he'd be a cheap option. If he still stinks (which is likely given age and weight) I'd maybe check in on a Mark Ellis or Orlando Hudson. Kelly Johnson and Chris Getz are trade options if the prices aren't outrageous.

Dumping Cedeno isn't mandatory, but it might be good if you look for a shortstop like Jerry Hairston, maybe Nick Punto or J.J. Hardy on the Twins if there's a logjam, Jason Bartlett (potential payroll dump by Rays), maybe a Cristian Guzman or Jed Lowrie.

After the infield is fixed, right field is still a mess. I don't know. Ryan Doumit is probably the best hitter for that on the roster, but his defense is bad. Signing Brad Hawpe or Mike Cuddyer would be the same as playing Doumit twice. The best fits like David DeJesus and Coco Crisp have cheap options that will be picked up by Kansas City and Oakland, and they won't let go of nice players for free.  I think the plan will be to primarily use Doumit in the outfield with sprinkles of Jones/Milledge/Bowker/whoever.

2011 example:

C: Chris Snyder

1B: Pedro Alvarez

2B: Orlando Hudson

3B: Neil Walker

SS: Jason Bartlett

LF: Jose Tabata

CF: Andrew McCutchen

RF: Ryan Doumit or someone else if we're lucky

Baseball America's Jim Callis outlines his new Pirates Top 10 prospects after the Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie, and Luis Heredia signings, in today's Ask BA mailbag:

1. Jameson Taillon, rhp
2. Stetson Allie, rhp
3. Tony Sanchez, c
4. Luis Heredia, rhp
5. Starling Marte, of
6. Jeff Locke, lhp
7. Andrew Lambo, of
8. Bryan Morris, rhp
9. Chase d'Arnaud, ss/2b
10. Rudy Owens, lhp

Short comments on all of these selections are here.