SB Nation Blog: AdamOnFirst

Once More into the Breach for the First Time

AdamOnFirst — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 20:46:20 -0000

So I'm breeaking a little rule of mine and doing something that's always scared me a bit. I'm going to a Twins game at US Cellular.

I'll be cheering loud. Wish me luck that I don't get in any fights too bad (Like a good Twins fan, the only thing I hate more than the White Sox is their fans) or if I do, I'll win.

Here's to Nick Blackburn!

I'm serious about the fight thing though. It's a legitimate concern. We'll see how this goes...

Here Come the Yankees

AdamOnFirst — Fri, 30 May 2008 22:59:44 -0000

The following will appear in the Gameday Program for this weekends series against the Yankees. I wrote it. I have reservations about giving away my pearls of genious and wisdom for free, but I though, ah, what the hell.

April Showers Bring…

April was not a kind month to the hitters of the Minnesota Twins. They finished the month with the worst On Base Percentage and the third worst Slugging Percentage in the AL and scored more runs than only the lowly Royals. Carlos Gomez, the centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade, was exciting for the first few games before showing his inexperience en route to a dreadful .253/.260/.354 (Batting Average/On Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage) hitting line. Michael Cuddyer spent most of the month hurt, Joe Mauer hit a lukewarm .298 with 0 home runs, Jason Kubel did little outside a few home runs, Mike Lamb hit below the Mendoza line, and Delmon Young did nothing to add power to the lineup.

May brought the flowers as promised. The Twins have rebounded to score 129 runs so far in May, 3rd most in the American League, while putting up the third best On Base Percentage in the league and a surprisingly solid sixth best Slugging Percentage. The Twins also managed to defy their usual problems with plate patience by drawing the third most walks in the AL and striking out the third fewest times.

Leading the improvement charge was Carlos Gomez. After sitting out a game in Oakland on April 23rd, Gomez hit a home run and a single in his return to the lineup and hasn’t looked back since, posting a .317/.367/.505/ line with 4 home runs total and 8 stolen bases in 10 chances. All this was capped by his astounding cycle performance on May 7th in a 13-1 drubbing of the hated White Sox. Gomez still strikes out a lot, but after only one walk in the entire month of April his 6 in May are doing wonders for his OBP, which is doing wonders for his ability to actually use his speed as a leadoff hitter.

Jason Kubel returning to form has also had a big effect on the Twins offense. After a bad April that had Craig Monroe threatening for more at bats in the DH spot, Kubel has gotten on track in May with a .264/.344/.472 line with 2 home runs in 53 at bats. After a dreadful 20/3 K/BB ratio in April, he has found his plate eye again with an even 7/7 ratio in May. After years of seeing players like Jason Tyner and Lew Ford spend lots of time in the DH spot, it’s nice to see Kubel start to thrive in the role.

There is more room for improvement too. Michael Cuddyer has stunk up the batters box since his return and is now hitting a putrid .237/.304/.319. Cuddyer is an important hitter for the Twins since most of the Twins best hitters are all left handed and productive Cuddyer makes it much harder for opposing managers to create favorable matchups against Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel late in the game. Meanwhile, Delmon Young has also struggled at the plate with a mediocre .268 BA and almost no power. The Twins expected to have more than one home run between their two starting corner outfielders by now. Fortunately, Cuddyer’s established track record and Young’s age gives us plenty of reason to think they’ll bounce back soon and give the offense another boost.

And, sure, it doesn’t have anything to do with offense, but Fransisco Liriano is still down in AAA slowly getting his control and velocity back…

The Little Things?

The media, both local and national, has long praised the Twins for “doing all the little things right.” But it doesn’t seem like this year’s Twins got the memo. The Twins defense this year has been quite bad by several different measurements. Team Defensive Efficiency measures the percentage of balls in play that a team turns into outs. Even seemingly small variations in this number can have enormous effects on the effectiveness of a team’s ability to prevent runs. Currently, the Twins DEF ranks them at 24th in baseball, a very bad place to be for a team that is supposed to pride itself on defense and pitching. The Twins are also making more mistakes than most teams as they have already committed 40 errors, 4th most in baseball. And all of this isn’t taking into account a whole host of other mistakes the Twins have made such as Delmon Young’s recent misplay that turned a blooper down the line into a game-tying inside the park home run or Brendon Harris’s continued struggles at turning the double play.

Another thing the Twins have been used to is a rock solid bullpen. The Twins bullpen has been downright pedestrian this year, ranking in at 8th in the American League in ERA. Losing 8th inning ace Pat Neshek has had a predictably bad effect on the bullpen as the Twins relievers have given up more runs in May than the relievers of any other AL team. This is all after signing the still-dominant Joe Nathan to a contract worth at least $47 million this offseason. Unfortunately, Nathan hasn’t been used terribly often this year, having logged only 20.1 innings so far, which represents only 13% on the bullpen’s total innings. A lot of pitchers are going to have to step up to fill Neshek’s funky shoes and it seems like the best pitcher on the team should be asked for a little extra as well.

ON THE HILL

Friday: Glen Perkins (2-1, 2.77 ERA, 5.5 K/9)

•    2008: 26 IP, 16 K, 27 H, 4 BB, 4 HR
•    (AAA): 33.1 IP, 27 K, 28 H, 19 BB, 2 HR
•    After missing most of last year with a shoulder injury, Glen Perkins has made the most of his time in the majors since his callup with 4 great starts against some of the league’s top offenses.
•    Perkins has stranded over 90% of his runner allowed on base so far this season. Unfortunately, history shows that number to be impossibly high for any pitcher to sustain over time, so unless he starts allowing fewer baserunners he’s likely to start seeing more runs score.

Saturday: Boof Bonser (2-6, 6.16 ERA, 5.6 K/9)

•    2008: 61.3 IP, 68 H, 40 K, 17 BB, 8 HR
•    2007: 173 IP, 199 H, 136 K, 65 BB, 27 HR
•    Boof will be happy to see the month of May end. After a solid April with a 3.75 ERA, Boof has been throwing batting practice in May to the tune of a 9.59 ERA…
•    And there may be good hope for Boof going forward. Bonser has stranded only 52% of his runners so far. That number is bound to improve, helping Bonser’s ERA.
•    Boof may be running out of chances though. With Scott Baker returning from the DL, Bonser may find himself the odd man out if he doesn’t find his stuff soon.

Sunday: Nick Blackburn (4-3, 3.39 ERA, 4.8 K/9)

•    2008: 71.2 IP, 38 K, 86 H, 11 BB, 4 HR
•    2007 (AAA): 110.2 IP, 57 K, 96 H, 12 BB, 7 HR
•    And you thought the Twins lost Carlos Silva. Blackburn has showed why he was ranked the Twins best prospect by Baseball America this offseason. He doesn’t strike many out, but he walks very few and gets a lot of ground balls.
•    For a change of pace, Blackburn has stranded a totally average number of runners and all of his peripheral numbers align with his results. His performance so far has been legit.

Monday: Livan Hernandez (6-2, 4.22 ERA, 2.7 K/9)

•    2008: 70.1 IP, 22 K, 90 H, 13 BB, 9 HR
•    2007: 204.3 IP, 90 K, 247 H, 79 BB, 34 HR
•    Hernandez’s signing was a controversial move for the Twins. His fastball routinely guns in around 85 MPH, his performance has suffered over the last few years, he was blocking the youngsters, and the move to the AL, league of the DH, would balloon his ERA off the charts. Or so it seemed…
•    Instead, Hernandez has done a nice job for the Twins. He still has a laughably low strikeout rate, but he’s cut his walk rate in half and given a nice boost to the number of grounders he induces. With all the injuries to the bullpen, Hernandez’s steady 200 innings may be just what the doctor ordered.

Neshek's Diagnosis: Bad

AdamOnFirst — Sat, 10 May 2008 03:21:48 -0000

The results of today's MRI on Pat Neshek's right elbow were not good. La Velle E. Neil reported on his blog that Neshek has been diagnosed with an acute partial tear of the ulner collateral ligament. Yes, that said tear, and yes, that's the Tommy John ligament. The word on what that means right now is Neshek will not throw for at least 3 months. Surgery has not been mentioned at any point yet, but I highly doubt it's medically out of question considering the importance of that ligament.

This is clearly terrible news for the Twins. Not only is it almost certain that Neshek will be done for the balance of the year, causing the Twins to lose their top set-up guy, but an injury to this part of the body casts instant doubt on how Neshek will pitch for the rest of his career.

Neshek is likely to get a second opinion, and hopefully we'll soon hear word about the injury being something a player can recover from soon...

Rain Rain, Go Away

AdamOnFirst — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 18:51:47 -0000

It seems obvious to me from where I'm sitting here, but for those of you who don't live in Chicago, the Twins final game with the White Sox has been postponed due to hard rain. Based on forecasts for the weekend series in Kansas City, this way be the first of a couple games missed in the next few days.

O=I'm pretty disappointed by the rainout in general, since Twins vs White Sox is the only time I really get to watch the Twins play until June. On the other hand, Joe Christensen detailed in his blog why the rainout may be coming at a good time for the Twins.

Anyways, on to Kansas City we go. Livan Hernandez will presumably get his spot in the rotation in the first game on Friday (assuming it is played), facing off against Gil Meche.

Hosanna!

AdamOnFirst — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 06:38:09 -0000

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

"He had a big night," Gardenhire said of Kubel, who finished with six RBI. "I've always said, I really believe this guy can hit. And you know what? He's going to get plenty of opportunities this year. He had 450 [plate appearances] last year, and I think he's going to get more than that this year.

Oh God, thank you, yes. Put it on the books now, Gardenhire just said more than 450 PA's for Kubel this year. I feel an enormous worry lifted off my shoulders.

Now go read Jesse's post below. It's an ACTUAL entry. With, you know, words, and research and stuff. That Jesse, he sure writes English good...

Liriano: A Conversation Point

AdamOnFirst — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 01:43:12 -0000

According to Joe Christensen's blog, Fransisco Liriano had a marginal start tonight in Rochester:

Francisco Liriano needed 88 pitches to get through four innings tonight for Class AAA Rochester, and Casey Daigle has replaced him to start the fifth inning in Norfolk, Va.

Liriano gave up three runs on five hits, with three walks and three strikeouts. It remains unclear if that was enough to convince the Twins he is ready to rejoin the major league rotation.

Alexi Casilla did make two errors in the field behind Liriano, which cost him somewhat in his final line, but those results remain discouraging coming from AAA. It looks like Liriano may make another start or two in the minors before trying his hand in the major. However, Liriano WILL be called up sooner or later, and probably not too much later. The question then becomes, which Twins starter is demoted?

Boofeteria Sighting!

AdamOnFirst — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 20:54:12 -0000

For over a month now, we've been hearing about how Boof Bonser's new diet and exercise program had a banquet-sized affect on his appearance and energy. Almost every reporter who covers the Twins spent time raving about how much thinner he is. We were purely stuffed with hearing about it. It's been reported that he had lost about 25 pounds so far and was on his way to cutting off another 5 before the end of spring.

And yet, after all this attention, that's all the fans got, words. I don't know if this bothered anyone else, but this blogger was absolutely famished for a picture of the new and improved man.

Well, after his snack of an outing against the Yankees two days ago (in that outing, he had some trouble finding the plate, but he left coaches with a pretty good taste in their mouths), the Twins posted a single picture of him in action. They also updated his headshot on his player profile. Here's Boof's new look:

The Return of the Kid

AdamOnFirst — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 17:45:22 -0000

Today is a big, big day for the Twins organization, perhaps bigger than any other day yet or later in this this spring training. The franchise is taking the hill in the Twins A-squad game against the Boston Red Sox. Taking the hill for the Red Sox will be another their young phenom, Clay Bucholz.

It will, of course, mark the first time Fransisco Liriano has pitched in a game since September of 2006.

Whatever the stat line is for him after the game, just finishing his two innings and feeling good will be the best thing the Twins could hope for. Up until this point, he's been throwing side sessions. But what happens when he puts that little extra behind his fastball on a 2-2 count?

One interesting thing to notice on Liriano thusfar is his avoidance of the slider. We've been told since he injury that the Twins will probably want him to rely less on the slider. This has led him to improve his change up since it will see more use now.

But in all his bullpen sessions so far this spring, his slider has not been useful. Joe C noted in his blog that Liriano himself admitted to holding back on the slider, rendering it "wild and ineffective." But, of course, while he can minimize it's use somewhat, Liriano's true dominance as a pitcher still comes from his unhittable slider. He's going to have to find a way to come to terms with it eventually.

If anyone recalls, this isn't the first time an important Twins lefthander has had arm surgery and then had difficulty throwing his best pitch for some time. In 2004, for all of April and May, Johan Santana's change up was terrible, and it resulted in an ERA of 5.61 in those two months. But on June 9, against, ironically, the New York Mets, he gave up only one run in seven innings of work, racking up 10 strikeouts. He would go on to give up more than two runs in a start only once for the remainder of the season. He, of course, won the Cy Young and has never looked back.

During the winter before that 2004 season, Santana had some bone chips removed from his left elbow. He admitted that he felt tentative because of the injury and was not fully extending his arm when he threw, especially on the change up. In between his starts on June 3 and June 9, he had a bullpen session with Rick Anderson who noticed and corrected this mistake. This was the key to Santana's dominance the remainder of the season.

Remember that today, whatever the result of Liriano's start is (so long as it is a healthy one). Liriano may not be back to full form for some time, even if his fastball has been clocked as high as it has ever been. It may take his some time to regain full confidence in his arm. But the Twins are willing to wait. Today, all we need to see is a nice, easy motion.

[Update 3:30pm CST] MLB.com roundup on Liriano's first start

Please, make sure not to miss Jesse's discussion below on one of my favorite Twins, Jason Kubel.

And Exhale...

AdamOnFirst — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 23:37:19 -0000

Johan Santana is a Met

No details yet, but Twins (and Mets) fans everywhere can breathe a big sigh of relief.

It's over. For better or worse, it's finally over.

Now, let's see what the damage was to the Met's pocketbooks...

THAT'S Unexpcted

AdamOnFirst — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 04:42:54 -0000

Amid a lot of negative attention, both nationally and locally, aimed at the Twins, a bit of encouragement to fans is coming from an unexpected place.

Torii Hunter, who spent much of the last two seasons bashing the Twins organization for several reasons and saying how great it would be too play any number of other places, had this too say about the players the Twins got in the Santana trade, and the young players left on the roster overall.