SB Nation User Blog: Agent Jerry Fletcher

The Genie Wants Out

Agent Jerry Fletcher — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 15:25:13 -0000

Won't be long now.

All the pundits who've been predicting three or four wins for the Broncos, all the experts who've been labeling Josh McDaniels "clueless" and "in over his head" and all the blabbering twerps who've claimed the Broncos are the laughingstock of the league, they're about to smell the coffee. And it will be a bitter smell. A rude awakening. Electro-convulsive shock therapy. We're not talking some shaving cream in the hand while a feather tickles the nose. We're talking a half-frozen watermelon spiked on a sleeping man's jewels.

But the realization will dawn shyly at first. There will be denials. They'll dismiss the first series as a fluke and a product of the preseason. The Niners just had a hard time dusting off the cobwebs, they'll say. But how will they explain away the next series, when San Francisco can't complete a pass of more than 3 yards? What will they say when the Niners have no answer for the Broncos' three-man weave and Jabar Gaffney just 360 dunked it over the goal post? What will they say when it's the start of the second quarter and a Bronco pass still hasn't hit the ground?

Make no mistake: They'll deny and deny and deny. It's just the preseason, they'll say. The preseason is irrelevant. The Broncos overprepared. They took it much more seriously than San Francisco.

What they fail to understand is, Josh McDaniels has fooled them all. He's smarter than they are. He's already forgotten more about football than they'll ever know. And he's about to uncork the bottle and free the genie.

And then, as the preseason progresses, a seed of doubt will germinate in their otherwise barren little brains. It whispers, "Is it p...p...possible I was wr..wr...wrong?"

That question will be answered against Cincinnati. That's when McDaniels spikes the watermelon. That's when John Clayton makes like a two-by-four snapped by a kung-fu chop, as the cold realization hits, "I don't know what I'm talking about and never have." And as delicious as that will be, the expression on Jamie Dukes' face will be even more exquisite when the Broncos strip away his delusions and he admits, "Mother was right: I'm a complete fool."

It won't be long now.

Nolan's Added Value

Agent Jerry Fletcher — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 15:08:25 -0000

To their credit, many denizens of MHR have been able to maintain their positivity despite the uncertainty surrounding this offseason. My responses to this optimism have ranged from acceptance to sardonicism.

One of popular MHR positions that I've often questioned has been the near-universal praise of Josh McDaniels' selection of Mike Nolan as the Broncos' Defensive Coordinator.

Given what I knew about Nolan, I couldn't understand the optimism. I thought it was another example of the 13-3 crowd believing that Pat Bowlen's money was magic and that once Nolan cashed his first check, he'd magically transform into Buddy Ryan.

But the fact was, aside from being familiar with his resume, I'd never really taken the time to study Nolan's track record as a Defensive Coordinator.

To assess Mike Nolan's track record, we created an index called the Greg Nolan Defensive Coordinator (GNDC) Index. I say "we" because I couldn't have done it without the help of one of my interns, Aimee, who compiled the data and who always turns heads on Wet T-shirt Wednesday.

The GNDC Index evaluated how Mike Nolan's defenses fared compared to NFL averages in six categories: Points Allowed, Yards Allowed, Opponent's Third Down Percentage, Sacks, Interceptions and Fumbles Recovered. These differences were then normalized and multiplied based on relevance. For example, since we know firsthand that the amount of yards a defense surrenders doesn't matter as much as how many points it gives up, points allowed is weighed more heavily than yards allowed.

Year	Team	Nolan DC?	GNDC Index	Special Notes?
1992	NYG	No	-38.0
1993	NYG	Yes	23.7
1994	NYG	Yes	3.2
1995	NYG	Yes	-3.4
1996	NYG	Yes	10.9
1997	NYG	No	41.7
1996	Wash	No	-8.7
1997	Wash	Yes	11.0
1998	Wash	Yes	-31.4
1999	Wash	Yes	-1.6
2000	Wash	No	23.0
1999	NYJ	No	-1.0
2000	NYJ	Yes	7.7
2001	NYJ	No	9.9
2000	Balt	No	61.3
2001	Balt	No	19.8	Nolan WR coach
2002	Balt	Yes	-4.6	Ray Lewis played only 6 games
2003	Balt	Yes	46.2
2004	Balt	Yes	25.9
2005	Balt	No	11.7

I'm the first to admit that the GNDC isn't perfect. Some important stats might have been excluded and the multiplying factors are quibble-worthy. But the fact that 2000 Baltimore Ravens defense, arguably the greatest of all time, logged the highest score in this analysis provides a measure of validation for the methodology.

So what value does the GNDC add? I believe it can give us some insight into whether or not Greg Nolan can turn a defense around. And I think the GNDC Index suggests he can. Consider Nolan's GNDC values during his tenure as DC with the Giants. He was hired in 1993 and his efforts translated into a 60+ point swing in GNDC value.

If you compare the GNDC values logged in the years before Nolan was hired as DC with the values logged during Nolan's first years as DC, the numbers almost always go up. The lone exception was in 2002, Nolan's first year as DC for the Ravens. In that year, Ray Lewis was injured and only played in 6 games.

Lewis' injury brings up an element that can't be overlooked: Personnel changes. Because the GNDC Index was calculated solely on statistics, any personnel changes weren't accounted for. I heard Josh McDaniels recently acknowledge that 47 of the Broncos' 80 players are new to the team. As we well know, many of those are on the defensive side of the ball.

I was disappointed to see that, in most cases, a team's GNDC Index value increased in the season following Nolan's departure. I think there are several ways to interpret this, but for now, I have other things that need attending.

Time to Cut Bait?

Agent Jerry Fletcher — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 15:39:50 -0000

Since the last poll on the Brandon Marshall situation was conducted, it's been reported that Marshall is officially skipping the team's mandatory minicamp in an effort to force the Broncos to renegotiate his contract. Given this new development, I thought it'd be interesting to see where people stand on the matter.

Before you vote though, I thought I'd offer up some additional stats to consider (compiled by another of my interns, Kimmie):

Brandon Marshall ranked #1 in the NFL as a target with 181 "times thrown to" in 15 games. The Texans' Andre Johnson was #2, thrown to 170 times in 16 games.
Brandon Marshall was #3 in the NFL in passes dropped.
Brandon Marshall was #2 in the NFL in passes not caught with 77 in 15 games. The Browns' Braylon Edwards was #1 with 83 in 16 games.
Brandon Marshall ranked #7 in the NFL among receivers in yards after the catch with 439 yards in 15 games. Interestingly, the Patriots' Wes Welker was #1 with 758 yards in 16 games. Eddie Royal, a Welker analog, logged 359 yards in 15 games.

In my opinion, the most interesting of these stats is that Marshall led the league as a target, numbers that validate my suspicion that Cutler was locking on and forcing the ball to Marshall at every opportunity. I think it would be interesting to review Marshall's gaudy statistics from last season through this lens. However, although it is Spandex Spaturday here at the office, we're all working a half day. So that research will need to wait.

I imagine I've already tipped my hand about how I'll vote in the poll below. I'm voting to get rid of Marshall if it comes to that. But it might not be for the reason you'd think. Sure, given these stats, I believe Marshall's talent might be a bit overrated.

That's not the primary reason that I'd like to get rid of Marshall, however. I don't believe that winning is everything, let alone the only thing. To me, character counts. I like the good guys. And, in my view, Brandon Marshall isn't easy to root for. I think he's immature, self-centered and has shown either an inability or a reluctance to learn from his mistakes. I won't go as far to say he's a jerk, because I don't know him personally and he, reportedly, has done some positive things in the community - when pressed. It's possible he's just a young man who's made some very stupid choices...repeatedly.

Where there's smoke, there's fire...most of the time. And there seems to be a ton of smoke surrounding Brandon Marshall. And I'm tired of it.

So, you'll notice there's no choice to wait him out. Even though that might be the best course of action. I'm curious as to whether the folks at MHR believe Brandon's talent offsets his silly behavior.

Poll

Are you fed up with Brandon Marshall and think it's time to get as much as possible for him?

Yes

95 votes

No

110 votes

205 votes | Poll has closed

Is the Broncos' Zone-Blocking Scheme Ineffective Near the Goal Line?

Agent Jerry Fletcher — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 13:41:33 -0000

In Jon Tollerud's post, "Are We Supportive or Blind?", we got a bit off-topic and I suggested that the Broncos' Zone-Blocking scheme was limited near the goal line. Slow White Guy pointed me to a site that compiles interesting statistics that seemed to disprove my theory.

First, just let me say, SWG, I'd never heard of that site before, so thanks for the tip. I checked out the stats you referenced.

Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.

An interesting stat, but since it also includes runs outside the Red Zone, it doesn't perfectly capture my idea. And neither does the "Stuffed" stat, since it's completely independent of field position.

So I talked to one my interns, the lovely Jenny (who could be a supermodel, but wants to be a secret agent instead,) and explained my theory about the limitations of the zone-blocking scheme in the Red Zone. I asked her to do some research into the Broncos' outcomes in the Red Zone. Specifically, the Blood Red Zone - the 10-yard line and in.

My theory is that, because the Broncos' zone-blocking scheme requires more agile guards who tend to be undersized, they would have a hard time moving the line of scrimmage in short-yardage situations - particularly when the field has been shortened and the safeties can crowd the line of scrimmage.

In fact, this isn't the case - at least according to Jenny's research.

Last season, the Broncos had 33 events inside the Blood Red Zone. They turned the ball over 9% of the time. They kicked a field goal 21% of the time. They scored a touchdown 70% of the time. 36% of the time they scored a rushing TD. 33% of the time they passed for a touchdown.

Jenny limited her research to the Broncos, so I don't know how these numbers compare to league averages. Nevertheless, I think these numbers disprove my theory. It appears the Broncos were able to move the line scrimmage and "punch it in." I haven't looked at the roster of events myself, but Jenny said that many (the majority?) of the rushing TDs in the Blood Red Zone were scored by either Michael Pittman and Peyton Hillis - two bruisers.

The limitations of Jenny's research are that she screened for plays for which the last line of scrimmage (LOS) took place in the Blood Red Zone and then backplanned from there. So, let's say that the Broncos had a first down on the opponent's 17 yard line. On first down, they run for 2 yards to the 15. On second down, they run for 4 yards to the 9 yard line. Then they're facing 3rd and 4 from the opponents 9 yard line. This would be considered an event, since the last LOS was inside the Blood Red Zone.

Another limitation was that she included play sequences near the end of halves and games. So if the Broncos were forced to kick a FG on second down because there was only 2 seconds left in the half, that was an event.

Finally, keep in mind, Jenny's just an intern, and although she looks great on French Maid Friday (that's one of the fun, theme-based activities I've implemented to keep morale high - my favorite is Wet T-Shirt Tuesday), she's still developing her research skills.

Incidentally, if you're curious, Cutler was 15 for 34 for 75 yards in the Blood Red Zone. He threw for 11 touchdowns and - I believe - all 3 turnovers could be tied to him. The Broncos also had 30 rushing attempts for 75 yards, a 2.5 average.

I'm contemplating tasking Jenny or maybe one of my other interns to do additional research going farther back. Perhaps the additions of Pittman and Hillis, both of whom I'd consider "power backs," contributed to the Broncos' success last year. Or maybe my theory is wrong.

Your tax dollars at work.

Poll

Would you like to see Jenny in her French Maid Friday outfit?

Of course, don't be silly.

121 votes

No thanks, I have my own interns

5 votes

I only like AMERICAN-MADE!

3 votes

129 votes | Poll has closed

the wet blanket

Agent Jerry Fletcher — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 01:44:13 -0000

When I was in college, I used to work at Ball Aerospace in Boulder as a janitor so I could eat more than ramen. The engineers there used to keep signs on their cubicles that read, "Screw reality; Think positive."

I always thought that was an interesting perspective and I could never tell tell if they were being ironic.

I believe that many of MHR's denizens tend toward optimism - at least as far as the Broncos are concerned.

Normally, I'm a positive person. But I worry about the upcoming Bronco season. Not about the offense. But about the defense, specifically the front seven.

Consider the group that I'm projecting as the starters (granted, it's May):

NT: Ron Fields - Couldn't start for the 49ers last season.

DE: Ryan McBean - Played in one game for the Steelers last season. Spent 3/4 of the season on the Steelers' practice squad. Having said that, I kind of like McBean. But we can't expect miracles, right? Last time I checked, the Steelers weren't too shabby at evaluating talent.

DE: Kenny Peterson - Folks here seem excited about this kid. I'm not sure why. I watched every Broncos game last season and can't remember him making a single play. But my memory isn't what it used to be. Is it fair to say, he's no Richard Seymour?

OLB: Elvis Dumervil - Converting from 4-3 DE. Learning a new position.

MLB: DJ Williams - Learning his fourth position in 6 seasons.

MLB: Andra Davis - The Browns were comfortable letting him leave in free agency.

OLB: Robert Ayers - A rookie.

Tons of question marks. And I know I took the most negative perspective on each of these players. I didn't do it to tick anyone off, but I just hadn't seen anyone else point out that most of these players are unproven.

Originally, I intended this to be a comment on the schedule post, but my fingers got loose, so I decided to start a new one.

I know we have no choice but to trust that Mr. Bowlen made the right choice in firing Shanahan, hiring McDaniels and then firing the Goodmans. Now we have to trust that McDaniels is making the right choices.

And I'm happy to do it. I thought it was time for a change and have been thus far impressed by Coach McDaniels. But Rome wasn't built in a day.

Given my concerns about the front seven, this is the way I forecast the upcoming season's results:

@ Bengals - W - (1-0)

Browns - W - (2-0)

@ Raiders - L - (2-1)

Cowboys - W - (3-1)

Patriots - L (3-2)

@ Chargers - L - (3-3)

@ Ravens - L - (3-4)

Steelers - L - (3-5)

@ Redskins - W - (4-5)

Chargers - W - (5-5)

Giants - L - (5-6)

@ Chiefs - W - (6-6)

@ Colts - L - (6-7)

Raiders - W - (7-7)

@ Eagles - L - (7-8)

Chiefs - W -(8-8)

I guess I don't believe that the Giants, Colts and Ravens are going to fade as much as some here do. And I'd feel more confident about the Bengals and Redskins games if they were at home.

Wow, this schedule presents several challenges.