SB Nation User Blog: Allen Chace

ALDS Game 3: No More Tie Game Rally Thread.

Allen Chace — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 04:13:03 -0000

Bickety-bam.

Doubleheader? Sunday. MFYs @ Sox. 1:35 EDT

Allen Chace — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 07:18:54 -0000

Also, keep an eye out for Johnny Pesky's retired number ceremony before the game, if you have NESN.

Mussina (going for 20 wins?) v. Daisuke in Game 1.

Sidney Ponson (going for embarassment?) v. Wake in Game 2.

Rain on the docket as well? Boo to the rain.

JD Drew will supposedly start Game 2 in RF. Even a PH appearance from Mike Lowell could be big, positive news, though it seems we shouldn't get our hopes up about even that.

Red Sox Notes: All Over the Place.

Allen Chace — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 07:27:34 -0000

I've got a lot of random things kicking around my head.

via d.yimg.com

MVP.

You probably know all or most of the numbers. 54 2Bs. 2 3Bs. 17 HRs. 20 SBs (1 CS). 118 R. 211 H. 123 OPS+. His defense at 2b has been almost impeccable, and he's made it into 156 of 160 games. Dustin Pedroia has an excellent case for MVP of the league. In addition, there's a certain media fascination with him due to both his size and his attitude about the game and himself. Whether that should contribute to MVP balloting or not, it probably has in the past and could this time.

John Donovan and Joe Posnanski weighed in this week on the debate, and both bring up Kevin Youkilis as both an MVP candidate and, thusly, a reason why DP is not the MVP. You can certainly see their point in the numbers. There's not a lot offensively that DP has done that Youks can't or hasn't done. One point needs to be made clear, though I'm probably preaching to the choir in this forum: DP would have 115 RBIs or more himself if he had guys like Drew (.408 OBP), Papi (.370 OBP), "Being" (.398 OBP) and DP himself (.375 OBP) batting ahead of him most of the time, as opposed to Who-Lio, Ells, and Coco. This isn't to disparage Youks at all, but you have my all-encompassing permission to smack the crazy out of anyone who uses the RBI argument to say that Youks has been more valuable this season. The defense argument is bunk, as well, because even if Youks is better than his peers at 1b to a larger degree than DP is to his peers at 2b, 2b is obviously the more difficult position.

With that in mind, we can only hope (for those of us who, even if we don't put a lot of stock in the individual awards, do a good job of faking enragement when things don't go as they should) that Joe Mauer is DP's competition for the award. Not because it makes DP the clear choice, but because Mauer seems pretty deserving himself.

Playoff Roster.

Quite a conundrum here, with Lowell and Drew's statuses up in the air. Have to imagine the roster will be something like:

C (2): Cash, 'Tek

IF (6): Bailey, Mayor McSpeed, Cora, Lowrie, DP, Youks

OF (4): Bay, Coco, Ells, Kotsay

DH (1): Papi

P (11): Becks, Byrd, Lester, Matsuzaka, Wake, MDC, Lopez, Masterson, Okajima, Papelbon, Timlin or Aardsma

That makes 24. Last spot would (if Lowell or Drew are not available) go to Chris Carter, Jonathan Van Every, or Gil Velazquez. Perhaps both Timlin and Aardsma would go, though either are perfectly capable of blowing a lead.

I suppose I'm thinking too much about all this, but Bailey is kind of already an all-hit no-field option v. Carter, Van Every would be a defensive replacement or pinch-runner for 4 guys who don't really need such a thing, and Velazquez has 3 minutes of ML experience. I wouldn't mind carrying either Bailey or Carter, because I think both have the ability to hit ML-pitching. I'm sure there'll be plenty of debate between now and when the rosters show up, and I'd appreciate seeing all of your input on the subject. Most likely, in my opinion, Lowell is not available but Drew plays long enough and well enough tomorrow that he's written onto the ALDS roster using a pencil full of hopes and dreams.

George Kottaras:

Congratulations to him, and the aforementioned Velazquez on making their ML-debuts. I think it's rather interesting that Kottaras (the more highly regarded catching prospect w/r/t hitting) got the call-up rather than Dusty Brown (higher rate stats at Pawtucket with a better defensive reputation). It's not as though either were going to see a lot of PT in September, I suppose.

Eh. That's it. Watch em retire Pesky's number if you can. I've gotta work. I'll admit it's petty, but I'd be totally down with us spoiling Mussina's bid for 20 wins.

Open Thread: Wild Card Clinch? Clevelands @ Red Sox.

Allen Chace — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 22:19:21 -0000

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2008 - Zach Jackson	0-3	6.48	1.48	22	6

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2008 - Josh Beckett	12-9	3.96	1.18	166	33

Amidst a busy schedule of stealing quite generic nicknames, the Sox take on the Clevelands tonight at Fenway Park with a chance to seal up a spot in the 2008 postseason. There's only one October, just like last year.

Lineup

Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox

09/22/08 7:05 PM EDT

Cleveland Indians	Boston Red Sox
Grady Sizemore - CF	Jacoby Ellsbury - CF
Jamey Carroll - 3B	Dustin Pedroia - 2B
Shin-Soo Choo - RF	David Ortiz - DH
Jhonny Peralta - SS	Kevin Youkilis - 3B
Travis Hafner - DH	Jason Bay - LF
Ben Francisco - LF	Jed Lowrie - SS
Ryan Garko - 1B	Mark Kotsay - RF
Kelly Shoppach - C	Jason Varitek - C
Asdrubal Cabrera - 2B	Jeff Bailey - 1B

You can have your Hanley Ramirez, Freddy Sanchez, Carlos Pena, Brandon Moss, David Murphy -regrets. The Clevelands have a catcher whose hitting line in 107 games this season is .268/.346/.534, and it ain't Victor Martinez.

Despite a recent hot streak, still not loving Ells in the leadoff spot. The rest of the lineup, however, is just about exactly as it should look given the individuals playing tonight. Jason Bay returns from maternity leave. I might've given Bailey a shot a little higher in the order, but then he might've just reached base and not been knocked in by Kotsay or 'Tek, so maybe it all works out. Zach Jackson is LH, which is good news for 'Tek, as he can hit from the side of the plate that he can still hit from (.875 OPS v. LHPs this season from the right side). Go Sox. Clinch. Down with the Rays. All that good stuff.

Rays give Francona and Second-Place Red Sox Plenty to Second-Guess.

Allen Chace — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 02:15:27 -0000

via d.yimg.com

Beckett was exceptional, throwing 8 innings of 1-run ball in enemy territory. The Sox offense was simply unable to back him up properly.

So, a big fat shout-out to Josh Beckett, who was every bit of himself for 8 innings this evening. He left with the game tied, having engaged in an excellent pitching duel vs. Andy Sonnanstine and co. A Carlos Pena solo HR is the only blemish on an excellent night tonight from Becks.

Offense. Boo. Boo. Boo. All right. Credit where credit is due. Andy Sonnanstine is the exact kind of pitcher the Sox generally struggle against, and his command of the strike zone and fearlessness in attacking the zone were pivotal in his success tonight. However, the Sox continually alternated between being aggressive and patient/passive at the plate tonight, and there never seemed to be a consistent game plan. Despite three decent PAs, I am going to single out Jed Lowrie a little bit. His last PA against Dan Wheeler was abysmal, one of maybe a handful of PAs he's had in sort of "crunch time" situations in which he has looked like a rookie. He's not the only one, however, who should wish for their own personal time machine.

Second-guessing: Justin Masterson over Manny Delcarmen or Jonathan Papelbon: If you're going to not use Paps, then entering a tie game with your 3rd or 4th most talented reliever rather than your second-most talented reliever doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. I know there are many who have lost faith in MDC this season, but two facts are worthy of consideration: He truly is the second most talented RP in our bullpen; and his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is actually down a half-run from last season (3.85 v. 3.32). MDC has had some meltdowns in games that have seemed more important than "just one game" this season, but the fact is that he's pitching better than last season and has been unlucky w/r/t BIP v. last season. He also hadn't thrown since Friday.

Second-guessing: Leaving Mike Lowell in: Yes, he got the single and is a valuable safety net for Becks who seems partial to influencing his GBs to the third baseman. However, he was clearly in a lot of pain after making the play vs. Jason Bartlett, and you wonder whether giving him the rest of the night off tonight could've made him better available to play tomorrow. As it is, we have to assume that Bailey or Carter will probably start at 1B tomorrow (Sean Casey?) with Youks at 3B, leaving our offense looking weak with Cash and a rookie in. I suppose Cora at SS and Lowrie at 3B is also an option, but Cora doesn't exactly inspire me with confidence either, along with Kotsay and Ells kind of dragging down the OF lately.

Second-guessing: The timing of Evelyn Jane Bay: Just kidding. Amidst a poor game for the Sox, we're brought news of this wonderful miracle in the life of our new LF, Jason Bay and his wife and family. Congratulations to Jason and all the Bays.

...

Sox get a chance to tie the division back up tomorrow, with Tim Wakefield against short-rest Garza. I'll be working, hold it down for me.

It's Hip to be Mike Lowell.

Allen Chace — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 18:45:54 -0000

via d.yimg.com

Here, Papi congratulates Mike Lowell for not breaking his hip while hitting a first-inning HR last night.

We now know more about Mike Lowell's hip injury. He has a partially torn labrum in his hip, and has been receiving cortisone shots for the pain. A la Big Papi and his wrist, he insists that it has more to do with discomfort than actual pain. Either way, our third baseman is not and will not be 100% for the duration of the Red Sox's season. He will have surgery after the playoffs.

And sub-100% Lowell is still clearly the best option for defense at 3B, with Lowrie and Youks being his backups. As a hitter, however, I think we need to be putting more consideration (yet again) into moving Jason Bay up in the lineup. Would definitely prefer a healthy Bay over Lowell to provide Youks with some protection of his own. IF everyone gets healthy at some point, my ideal playoff lineup would be:

Lowrie

Papi

Youks

Bay

Drew

Lowell

Tek

Coco

As well as Coco has been doing, I still don't trust him as a leadoff hitter. Flipping Lowrie and DP is an option as well, if DP is that much more comfortable in the #2 spot. We need to take the pressure off of Lowell while he's injured, and sub liberally (not with Kevin Cash) when the Sox have a decent lead.

Lowell is perfectly capable of making a joke about himself, Sox fans.

"With any muscle or ligament, something can happen, but I don't think I run that fast to get to that point. I guess you can find comfort in that." -Mike Lowell

You are crazy-slow Mike Lowell, especially for seeming to be in good shape.

...

This is a bit of an older story, but one we haven't discussed yet here. Julio Lugo expects to return this season, and he expects to return as "the" SS. Almost a week after this story came out, and I haven't seen any real updates lately. I cannot imagine the Sox replacing Lowrie with Lugo at this point, with as well as Lowrie has done both offensively and defensively. Next season is another question entirely, and one not to be addressed right now.

All right. I'm going to envision the few reasons why Lugo might start over Jed Lowrie.

1. Superior range. Despite what statistics say, the eyes will certainly tell you that Lugo covers more ground when healthy.

2. Speed. Lowrie is an adequate baserunner, one whom I haven't seen make any mistakes out there. On the flip side, he's not exactly a burner, while Lugo's speed is an asset.

3. Arm strength. Lugo's arm is erratic, but he has the capability to get the ball to Youks quickly on groundballs hit by speedy baserunners.

Those are three good reasons, though Lowrie has a multitude of reasons behind him remaining the starter, up to and including steadier hands, better approach at the plate, better hitter, more power, etc. Also, Lugo has been having problems with running, potentially negating his advantage over Lowrie in #'s 1 and 2. So, basically/potentially, the only advantage Lugo has over Lowrie is arm strength. We can only hope the Sox have done as good an amateur analysis as I've just done. Keep Lowrie as the starter. If Lugo comes back and is willing to PR and sub around the IF, then let him. Otherwise, well. I said I wouldn't discuss that.

Red Sox Get One More (Last) Chance to Unseat Rays

Allen Chace — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 10:02:41 -0000

via d.yimg.com

All right. Not last chance exactly, but taking 2 of 3 or (can barely think of it) sweeping the Rays would put the Sox in decent position to finish in the division lead. We're on great track for the wild card, and it's worth pondering whether we should be terribly gung-ho for the division crown.

Regardless, one thing is for certain. All of the Rays-Yanks games this weekend were great. Either the Yankees lost, or the Rays lost, every time. I didn't get too caught up in deciding who to root for; I simply rooted for the Sox against the Jays, and was glad every night to see one more in the loss column for either the MFYs or the MFRs.

We enter the series 1 GB, and have Daisuke, Beckett, and Wake going against Kazmir, Sonnanstine, and Garza in that order. Daisuke vs. Kazmir is somewhat of a mismatch in the Rays' favor. Daisuke was again mentioned as a Cy candidate on TBS yesterday afternoon, and may I just say that I was convinced no one at TBS has seen Daisuke pitch this season. Am I the only one who has been frustrated by him just about every time out? Sure he's got the talent to get out of jams, but not getting into them in the first place would be just as good a lot better.

Despite Sonnanstine's great effort against us in the last series, I still think Beckett over Sonnanstine is a fairly safe call to make. Wake v. Garza is a bit harder to gauge. Wake is excellent in domes and at the Trop specifically (1.13 WHIP, 9-2 in 114 IP). Garza has been very impressive this season and is projected to start on three days rest against us on Wednesday. He has only one such start on short rest to his credit in his short career.

By the way. I realize I just spewed a little about Daisuke, but the hatred for Wake around here has got to stop. He's averaged over 6 innings per start with a 1.19 WHIP and 106 Ks in 167 2/3 IP. If you think he's the cause or reason for any problems we've had this season, then I'll just have to assume that the only thing you can look at is his pitching record.

Timlin is about 1% at fault for the other night. The other 99% rests with our offense that couldn't plate a run, even given 6 billion decent chances to do so. That being said, the Sox are going to have a tough decision that I hope they will make: sending Timlin home when the playoffs start. Pitchers who still have talent > veteran experience.

Anyway. Play and beat the Rays. Go Sox.

OT: Sox v. Rays: Timlin's Burning/Rotting Carcass Thread.

Allen Chace — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 03:52:05 -0000

Burnt to a Crisp.

Allen Chace — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 18:58:26 -0000

via d.yimg.com

That man in the middle has been absolutely scorching lately, with a 1.070 OPS over the last 28 days. He's been doing it on the strength of confidence, ability, and a .545 BABIP. His hot streak is unsustainable, no doubt about it. However, he's had two full months this season where his BABIP has been well-below the normal range. It's entirely logical to consider this to be some market correction. Consider his two good seasons for the Cleveland Clevelands:

2004: .297/.344/.446, BABIP: .320

2005: .300/.345/.465, BABIP: .323

And his line thusfar for the Sox:

2008: .291/.349/.421, BABIP: .332

His good years, obviously, have always been characterized by relatively high BABIPs. They aren't necessarily flukes; hitters like Manuel Ramirez and Derek Jeter have fashioned careers in which they are above-average in their BABIP range. One of the problems with a player like Crisp sustaining his for the long term is a loss of leg speed, but at 28 with 20 SBs on the season, he doesn't seem to be slowing down very much in that department. He's probably been a bit lucky, but he's been attempting to make clear over the last month plus that he is not a sinkhole in the offensive department. With Ellsbury's continuing struggles, it's safe to say that Jason Bay (.912 OPS with the Sox), Coco, and Mark Kotsay (.836) is the way to go in the outfield until (possibly later this week) J.D. Drew is ready to start again.

One of the ways in which we gained from the Manuel trade (which I am still recovering from) is in athleticism and versatility. I'd be comfortable with all of our OFs but Bay, perhaps, playing all 3 spots. And Bay ,certainly to the eyes, is providing a lot more speed, hustle, and defense in the LF spot and his spot in the batting order. Even with him being confined to LF, Coco, Kotsay, Drew, and Ells give us a lot of potential movable parts. A continued strong showing from Kotsay along with his ability to keep the curtain up at 1B may keep Sean Casey off of the playoff roster. But I digress, and get ahead of myself.

In any event, Coco's hot streak has provided he and the Sox with a lot more options now and in the future. The Sox can continue to ride Crisp's hot and timely bat through the rest of the season, and Coco now has a better chance at staying here and starting? or, more likely, getting the opportunity to move on to a situation in which he would be the bonafide starting CF. He's certainly making himself more palatable (read: marketable) in that respect. For now though, let's just enjoy what we've got in him and hope he can continue to assist DP, Bay, Papi, and Youks in doing the heavy lifting offensively.

Lowrie, Lugo, and the future at SS.

Allen Chace — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 19:07:31 -0000

via d.yimg.com

So, I'm not sure how to say this, but we might be saying a tough goodbye to Julio Lugo this winter. Some people might not think it'll be that tough. In a sense, it would be, because we would no doubt have to pick up some of the tab on the rest of the $18M he is owed over the next two seasons. And I cannot imagine a team wanting Lugo enough to send us something of value for him. What teams will be in need of a SS for 2009?

Tigers: Want to lower payroll, so they might decide to go the band-aid route a la 2008 Orioles. And Renteria was a disappointment in Detroit, and I'm not sure they would want to get everyone's hopes up again only to be dashed. Despite all this, there might be pressure to get more than a band-aid option at a cheaper price than what the Pirates might want for Jack Wilson, and what a player like Orlando Cabrera might want as a free agent.

White Sox: With the less-than-ideal relationship between manager Ozzie Guillen and Orlando Cabrera, it is not difficult to forsee a situation in which Cabrera is not resigned. The White Sox look poised to win the division and seem strong enough to have a decent shot at getting to the Series. I doubt there'll be any edict handed down to slash payroll.

Reds: Bit of a longshot here, I suppose, but the position will be open I believe, and the Reds don't operate on a small-market budget for the most part.

Dodgers: A big-market team that tries to operate on a small-market budget, despite it's GM's preference for veterans to block his capable prospects. Lugo could prove to be cheaper in the short and long run than Furcal if that's the route the Dodgers are thinking of going in, despite the presence of Chin-Lung Hu.

Giants: Is the organization dumb enough? Vizquel is going to be a FA, and the smart route is to pick up someone out of chances with another organization, or see if one of their internal options could potentially stick. Like the Dodgers, cannot rule them out of acquiring a veteran with more in the rear-view than ahead.

Yeah, not a lot of options, and cannot guarantee that all of them are. We also really couldn't expect anything of value in return. The only thing we would "get" is to free up the spot for the talented Jed Lowrie to hit 2nd, 6th, or 7th for many years to come in this lineup.

We have to be a little careful here. Lowrie's OPS+ of 116 has been compiled in only 50 ML games. Despite the miniscule difference between his ML OPS (.838) and his MiL OPS (.827) it's still a small sample. The good news is, there's several more games with which to watch and evaluate Lowrie. I personally think that this is the hitter he is. I think, eventually, he'll be a double-digit HR guy in addition to the doubles and clutch hitting. However, it would be prudent to reserve full judgement.

The main question with Lowrie, in view of both scouts and statisticians was his defense. Not many doubted that he could hit with this proficiency at this level. Many doubted that he'd be able to just keep the curtain up on defense at the SS position. They felt he'd have to be moved to 3B or 2B to make up for a projected lack of range. With SSS caveats still applying, let's take a look at how he's done.

RZR (revised zone rating, The Hardball Times): Lowrie's in 238 innings at the position is .833. He'd be right between/among Khalil Greene (considered a good defender) and J.J. Hardy (not considered good, IIRC) if he had enough innings to qualify. Perhaps more importantly, this puts him middle of the pack in RZR, so to say he'd be a butcher could definitely be wrong. He also has gotten to 11 balls out of zone, which would (beware fuzzy math) give him 50-51 in the same number of innings as RZR leader Miguel Tejada. Some of the order of SS in RZR makes it seem questionable, (Jason Bartlett too low, Jeter, Tejada, Michael Young too high) but it's worth considering in this exercise.

Rate(2) (100 as the baseline, Baseball Prospectus): We'll have to go a lot simpler on this one. Lowrie's Rate2 at SS is 99, where 100 is an average fielder. So he is below average in that sense. However, Lugo with an 86 is even more below-average. Lugo is also a -1 in Fielding Runs Above Replacement and -12 in Fielding Runs Above Average, versus 6 and 1 for Lowrie, respectively.

These are just two statistical sets. Chris Dial has a system as well, which has Jed Lowrie in 6th among ALL AL players to have played at SS this season, which is quite a few if you click through the link on the link I provided to Dial's spreadsheet (notice also: Pedroia a distant 2nd behind Mark Ellis at 2B, and Coco Crisp at the very bottom of AL CFs).

As I've already mentioned, these are all small samples. We can't count on them to be valid measures of Lowrie's defense, but if he can keep these performances up, the questions about his defense would seem to be answered.

Everything to this point says that Lowrie will be a more than capable ML SS at the plate and in the field. Is giving him 150 games there next season worth either A) Eating some of Lugo's contract or B) Risking the ire of Lugo by asking/telling him he will be serving as a supersub next season? Honestly, it is. And if the Sox can't make that decision, then I'm not sure how much faith we can have in the FO.