There's been a lot of discussion and questioning lately about how the Flyers will net their goals in 2009-2010 after parting ways with key scoring RWers Joffrey Lupul and Mike Knuble in a trade for Chris Pronger and a cap crunch loss to Washington, respectively.

I figured I'd delve a little bit deeper into the issue, and see just how significant our scoring problem is. My hypothesis before doing any research is that I feel our guys will be able to replicate the scoring primarily internally, by some players stepping up / gaining more experience / being healthy. Those're all big risks, though, so here goes nothin.

If the analysis & statistics don't interest you (and they're all admittedly very rudimentary stats, and thus have big percentage of error expectation), I recommend skipping to the end, conveniently labeled "Conclusions" in bold.

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via media.canada.com

There's a lot of anger going around about recent Flyers signee RW Ian Laperriere, not so often directed at him (albeit with several gripes regarding his PIM) as at the fact that it makes signing a faceoff specialist unlikely. Let's delve a little deeper into the #s, and see whether that fear is well-founded.

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As per ESPN.com

Philadelphia Flyers center Danny Briere will have corrective eye surgery Tuesday.

General manager Paul Holmgren says Briere will have a procedure called photorefractive keratectomy. He will take a few weeks to recover.

Briere says his contact lenses bothered him at times during the season so he elected to have surgery.

Hopefully he'll be able to produce even more after this type of surgery. Ideally, he should be producing over a point per game. Barring injury a la last season, there should be nothing to stop him from doing so.

You may or may not have read my fanpost about the Flyers' post-season defensive stumble and what we need as a team.

Some of you asked what the Flyers' players numbers were and what our regular season SDP #s were.

Ask and ye shall receive, as I found out from the article's author, Robert Vollman.

"The top Flyers in the postseason for SDP were Andrew Alberts (2.00), Darroll Powe (2.10), Ryan Parent (2.71), Claude Giroux (3.29), Braydon Coburn (3.44).  I'm afraid the numbers weren't kind to most of the Flyers, probably because of the penalties taken, and the high quality of their opponents offensively.
 
In the regular season the best Flyer SDP was actually Simon Gagne (2.96, #69 among those with at least 10 GP and 60 seconds of SH time/game).  Andrew Alberts was right behind at 3.05, Mike Richards at #130 at 3.36, Mike Knuble 3.40.
 
I think the Flyers would do well to pick up some more defensive players.  Statistically they were in the bottom third of the league defensively in the regular season and while they were good at killing penalties, they took far too many.  Personally I think that half the team is really solid, but the Flyers get into a little trouble when the other half is on the ice. What do you think?" -- Robert Vollman

What does this tell us?

Firstly, we did have a few guys in the second tier of defenders. Alberts, Powe, Parent, Giroux, and Coburn all would probably be in the 20-60 range. That's not too-too shabby.

Secondly, Gagne might be a better 2-way forward than Richards statistically. And he should definitely at least be in the conversation. He doesn't deliver the huge hits, but he helps out in other ways.

Thirdly, it would be wise to keep ALberts. He's the type of player the Flyers should be acquiring. He was inconsistent, but still on the whole highly underrated for what he did for us (shut down his competition, apparently). Caveat: He played opposing teams' less-talented forwards, so it's to be expected that his #s are better than your Timmonen, who is expected to shut out the un-shut-outable.

Fourth, we oughta play the rookies more. Giroux and Powe are apparently very good defenders -- they both saw more and more PK time as the season wore on, and I'd expect that trend to continue next year.

He also gave me a fun link. It basically uses advanced stats to show how each of our individuals did. I added the minimum threshold of 30 games played, with the team as the Flyers.

Here's the link to some awesome stat tables.

Some interesting tidbits from that:

If we had 18 Claude Girouxs running around, opposing teams would score only just over 2 goals a game. His defense is pretty exceptional -- he shuts down whatever line he's facing unless it's the opposing team's top line or so.

According to goals against per 60 minutes combined with the quality of the competition, Randy Jones is pretty solid against the opposing teams' 3rd and 4th line. Caveat? Andrew Alberts' quality of linemates was very low, and Jones is a big part of that.

Timmonen is very good against their 1st and 2nd. Carle and Coburn are pretty good against their 2nd and 3rd lines. Gagne, Knuble, and Richards are all about the same defensively (which is to say, very very good) taking quality of competition and GA/60 into account.

Lupul is still bad defensively, but he's better offensively than Richards + Knuble.

Asham is a defensive liability, but is played as well as or better than Knuble offensively.

Giroux is as good as Gagne offensively already.

Hartnell is our 2nd biggest pts/60 min producer after Jeff Carter.

Luca Sbisa dominated the 3rd and 4th lines of opponents. He would be a significant upgrade over both Alberts and Jones.

Parent struggled mightily against the opposing teams top two lines. He also faced the highest quality competition out of anyone (we had a tough second half schedule, is the reason for the discrepancy vs. Timmonen).

I thought we could convince Mr. Vollmer to write an article, specifically, about what our Flyers need to win a cup. What do you guys think the team needs, based on those stats and the stats of other teams? I'll email him what our community says and see what he says.

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=121

We need us some of these defenders. SDPs stands for "Shut-Down Player," and can be translated to football's "Shut-down Corner," guys who don't necessarily get all the stats (goals / assists / PIMs / interceptions / sacks / tackles), but are integral parts of the team because, specifically, they prevent the other guy from getting the stats. Think Nnamdi Asomugha or Sheldon Brown, football fans. NBA fans, think Tayshaun Prince or Iguodala's D. NHL fans, think the players below.

Put simply, all SDPs have three things in common: a low goals-against
average at even-strength, while killing penalties, and a low number of
penalties taken.

Player             Team        REG  ESGAA SHGAA PEN   SDP
Steve Montador     Boston      3.87  0.64  0.00   1  0.61
Stephane Yelle     Boston      2.55  0.91  0.00   1  0.87
Kevin Bieksa       Vancouver   3.36  0.49  2.25   3  1.08
Petteri Nokelainen Anaheim     2.61  0.00  4.49   1  1.19
David Krejci       Boston      3.06  1.52  0.00   0  1.22
Drew Miller        Anaheim     3.89  0.45  3.99   1  1.23
Jason Chimera      Columbus    2.93  1.33  0.00   1  1.28
Nicklas Backstrom  Washington  3.04  1.42  0.00   2  1.29
Ryan Getzlaf       Anaheim     4.86  1.33  0.00   6  1.38
Josh Gorges        Montreal    3.24  1.58  0.00   1  1.39
Michael Peca       Columbus    3.95  0.00  6.16   1  1.48
Marian Hossa       Detroit     3.13  1.74  0.00   1  1.48
Blake Wheeler      Boston      3.78  1.87  0.00   0  1.50
Niclas Wallin      Carolina    3.44  1.18  2.77   0  1.50
Rod Brind'Amour    Carolina    4.64  1.60  0.00   3  1.53
Matt Bradley       Washington  2.33  0.70  5.02   0  1.57
Tim Gleason        Carolina    3.57  1.64  0.00   4  1.58
Patrice Bergeron   Boston     16.46  1.56  0.00   3  1.62
Daniel Sedin       Vancouver   2.28  1.73  0.00   3  1.67
Daniel Cleary      Detroit     4.40  0.00  7.91   1  1.67

(Minimum of four games and at least one minute of penalty-killing per game)

REG: Regular-Season SDP, read it like a Goals Against Average
ESGAA: Even-strength Goals Against Average
SHGAA: Short-handed Goals Against Average
PEN: Minor penalties taken
SDP: Adjusting the ESGAA by adding 0.2 even-strength goals 
for each minor penalty, then averaging it with SHGAA in a 4-to-1 ratio.

Basically, the gist of the article is what we thought we saw. The Philadelphia Flyers played in 6 playoff games, thus qualifying for all the statistics in this piece, but not one qualified for the top 20 SDPs (shud-down players). Not even Timmonen.

What does this say?

Well, firstly, our defense was not good at all. We have Timmonen and Coburn and Richards and Carter, and they all seem like great defensive players, but the fact is even if they are they didn't perform as such in our series vs. the Pens. Even Columbus, which got absolutely creamed, featured a guy in the top 20. It actually featured 2 guys.

For all of our offensive prowess and our 2-way forwards, we couldn't get a single guy to be so good at defense that he shut the opponent down. Boston had 5 guys like that. Anaheim has 3 in the top 10. Both those teams have goalies that are suddenly dominating, and I'd hypothesize that it's not a random correlation. Is it the goalie that's responsible for the high level of SDPs for those teams? I don't know for sure, but NJ didn't have an SDP on the list, and they have the best goalie on this planet. Pittsburgh didn't, either. My guess is that the SDPs create the goalie to some degree, rather than vice versa. Probably it's somewhere in the middle (JSG didn't play well this year even with all those SDPs in front of him, ditto Manny Fernandez) but seeing as the teams with a lot of SDPs seem to consistently have good goaltending from one source or another, I think that the causative factor leans more towards the SDP side than the goalie side.

I'd guess we have a couple guys in the 20-40 range, so it's not like we're defensive slouches, but this playoffs we simpliy did not perform up to snuff defensively.

What does this mean going forward? We're fine with Biron. He ain't the problem. I bet if we got a couple of those elite SDPs (Nokelainen, Montador, Bieksa, Gorges all make our roster with ease), Biron or even Niitty go from guys who we talk about as "above average but can't carry us to the cup" to "Jonas Hiller outta-nowhere-dominant-WTF" 2.0.

I know Andrew usually has a say in this, but I figured while we're all excited about the draft let's get this little convo started:

Does this team have any weaknesses?

I projected the depth charts too. Most fluidity is at WR, where there will definitely be a great rotation at all levels (i.e. Brown will get a lotta PT)

QB (3):

1. McNabb     2. Kolb      3. Feeley

RB (4):

1. Westbrook     2. McCoy    3. Booker     4. Eckel

FB (1):

1. Weaver

WR (6):

1. Curtis     2. Jackson    3. Maclin     4. Avant       5. Baskett     6. Brown

TE (2):

1. Celek    2. Ingram    3. Dorenbos

O-line (10):

LT:

1. Peters    2. Herremans     3. Justice    4. Dunlap

LG:

1. Herremans    2. Jean-Gilles    3. Cole    4. McGlynn

C:

1. Jackson    2. Cole

RG:

1. Andrews    2. Jean-Gilles    3. Cole    4. McGlynn

RT:

1. Andrews    2. Andrews    3. Justice    4. Dunlap

D-Line (10):

DE:

1. Cole   2. Parker    3. Abiamiri    4. Howard    5. Clemons    6. Smith

DT:

1. Patterson    2. Bunkley    3. Laws    4. Howard    5. Klecko

LB (5):

1. Bradley    2. Gocong    3. Jordan    4. Gaither    5. Mays

CB (5):

1. Samuel    2. Brown    3. Hobbs    4. Hanson    5. Ikegwuonu    6. Harris

S (4):

1. Mikell    2. Demps    3. Jones    4. Harris

ST (3):

K = Akers     P = Rocca    LS = Dorenbos

Total: 53

Offense: 26

Defense: 24

Special Teams: 3

Notable Practice Squads/Redshirts: G Gibson, G/T Tupou, WR Gibson, G Fanaika

Notable Cuts: S Baker, TE Schobel

Did I miss anything? What does everyone think?

This girl is a cowboy fan. I think she sums up nicely the type of shenanigans we've seen from Cowboys fans. One pose, thousands of pictures. Hilarious video. Bless that music.

http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/80605891/

Things to consider:

Would you have realized that she was a Cowboys fan by:

A) Me telling you?

B) Her Cowboys jerseys?

C) Her stupid-ass pose and seemingly shell-shocked friends?

Hopefully that tickles your funny bone.

I posted this in another thread about what the Eagles should do with their draft thread, but I figured it was long enough to warrant a fan post, and I wanted to see what people thought about the idea of trading down. I know we're all clamoring to select 2 first rounders to make up for our lack of any first rounders these past couple years, but where I'm sitting I dread the thought of trading up and like the idea of trading down.

Why?

Let’s assume that the pundits are basically correct in their long-winded commentary hypothesizing that there is a shit-ton of depth in this draft, and not a whiffle-nut’s worth of top-tier talent. The real value-for-pick in the draft comes at pick 22 or so. That’s right where our first pick is, for all intents and purposes. I’m delighted with that.

What that is also saying is that there isn’t a massive drop-off in talent from the 1st to the 2nd. So let’s say that a team with a pretty good pick this year, say the Bills or something, decides they want leverage on Peters. This is just a random hypothetical example, that I really didn’t think totally through, but there are real scenarios like that that could play out that are more realistic. Anyway, I’ve chosen the Bills. They want insurance at tackle, since beyond Peters they got some kids who still have gangrene from gross-ass college showers. These kids suck. They aren’t good. They’re not a replacement for Peters, who, like him or not, is a bona-fide left tackle. So the Bills (who, on a related note, also suck) decide they want a guy like Beatty in the second half of the first round.

Trade:
Bills send 1st round (2010) + 2nd round (2009) + 3rd round (2010)
Eagles send 1st round (28 overall, 2009) + 3rd round (2009) + 4th round (2010) + 5th round (2009). Is that a fair trade? I don’t know. Maybe. Probably not. I didn’t compare the value charts at all.

Would the Bills do it? Maybe. Probably not. They are giving up what will probably be a high draft pick, given their divisional opponents and relative suckitude. Plus Lynch is gone their first 3 games, so they’re gunning for 1-2 headed into week 4.

Would the Eagles do it? Maybe. Probably not. They give up a lotta picks this year for a lottery next year. I will say that if the Eagles DID do this trade, I’d be happy.

The points are all moot, however, because it’s just a scenario. The real points are as follows:

We would a similarly talented player in the top half of the 2nd round as we would in the bottom half of the 1st. There is so much fluidity of talent there that a pick in the first half of the 2nd round might as well be a bottom half of the 1st round. It’s all about getting the player you want there. If the Eagles like a guy that will be available for the 37th pick, there’s no sense in picking him at 28 when you could get him at 35 or 36 or 37 and get a great pick for next year as well. Even moreso if they like 2 guys that will be there, since they’re going to get one.

Secondly, I don’t want us to trade that first for Peters, or Johnson, or Edwards. Maybe I’d be okay with Boldin, but I really do not think WR is our biggest need. That would be a fun trade, and I almost said Boldin, but whatever.

Thirdly, I do not think we have the best player possible at every position. The draft is partially a crapshoot, so drafting 12 guys means you have 12 chances at finding a real gem. Let’s overdraft! We have a need at RB? Sweet, draft 3 of them, at least 1 will probably turn out. Need a tackle? We only spent 3 picks on RB, why not spend 3 more on tackles! A TE you say? Bam, 3 more. And that still leaves 3 picks to fuddle around with DB and DE and LB, if you so desire. Obviously we don’t need to draft 3 of everything, but we do tend to overdraft to fulfill needs, and bringing 12 college studs to camp is not a bad idea if it means we end up with great position battles, players striving to get better, and maybe the cutting of some guys that really aren’t all that, and we just think they are because we haven’t seen what someone else can do.

Phew.

Maybe the return of Peter Forsberg to Philadelphia happened after all.

No, not the real guy. He officially retired in relative obscurity a couple weeks back.

Instead, the 21-year-old, on-ice doppelganger of the talented Swede has emerged inside a Flyers’ locker room, 15 years after the original burst onto the scene in Colorado after he was traded away as part of the Eric Lindros deal.
 
Yeah, we’re talking Claude Giroux. Yeah he’s got that skill set. Yeah, he could develop into one of the game’s best players. And no, I’m not blowing smoke in your eyes.

Could be interesting. I thought the article (link) was really interesting. I don't know that Giroux will become one of the best ever, but I think he has the capacity to. The guy's been getting better and better at an astonishing rate every year (really, every game). What's his ceiling? Does Philly now have 4 elite centers (Richards/Carter/Briere/Giroux)? 5 if you count vanRiemsdyk?

Also, what does that mean for Briere's future? He's been playing well, maybe there could be a taker for him in a trade. It'd be nice to have enough room to sign a few guys and fill up multiple holes since we score at a great clip and Briere almost seems like surplus.

For everyone who thought we might be getting Burress, the idea gets less likely every day. In fact, it gets less likely every day for every team.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4045389

"Burress, who the police report said was driving like "he was going to kill somebody," was issued a $150 speeding citation, his fifth traffic ticket in Florida in the past month, the report said."

It's not so much the cost of the tickets as it is the fact that Burress has been collecting citations for doing illegal things amidst a serious trial. I doubt he gets off lightly, it seems as though he's doing all that he can to get the full 3.5 years for the gun charge.

Pretty sad story overall.