SB Nation User Blog: Alon

Where Have All the Scorers Gone? Or, Will the Flyers be Able to Score in 2009/2010?

Alon — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 04:18:08 -0000

There's been a lot of discussion and questioning lately about how the Flyers will net their goals in 2009-2010 after parting ways with key scoring RWers Joffrey Lupul and Mike Knuble in a trade for Chris Pronger and a cap crunch loss to Washington, respectively.

I figured I'd delve a little bit deeper into the issue, and see just how significant our scoring problem is. My hypothesis before doing any research is that I feel our guys will be able to replicate the scoring primarily internally, by some players stepping up / gaining more experience / being healthy. Those're all big risks, though, so here goes nothin.

If the analysis & statistics don't interest you (and they're all admittedly very rudimentary stats, and thus have big percentage of error expectation), I recommend skipping to the end, conveniently labeled "Conclusions" in bold.

The Losses

First, let's look at the primary scorers who will not be wearing Flyers OJ&B this year.

via www.sportsnet.ca

Joffrey Lupul Career Stats:

Year	Team	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPA	SHG	SHA	GW	GT	SOG	Pct
2003-04	ANH	75	13	21	34	-6	28	4	4	0	0	2	1	137	.095
2005-06	ANH	81	28	25	53	-13	48	12	11	2	0	2	0	296	.095
2006-07	EDM	81	16	12	28	-29	45	5	3	0	0	1	0	172	.093
2007-08	PHI	56	20	26	46	2	35	7	14	0	0	3	0	176	.114
2008-09	PHI	79	25	25	50	1	58	6	9	0	0	4	0	194	.129
Career		372	102	109	211	-45	214	34	41	2	0	12	1	975	.105

Lupul is a guy who, despite inconsistency, is still just about a 30 goal scorer. This year, 30 goals or thereabouts is likely -- we can give him a range of 25-35 goals, most likely being ~30 (give or take 2 goals). The guy has a ton of offensive potential, and there's no real reason to expect regression.

Projected (Pessimistic): 28 goals

Next, we lost RW Mike Knuble.

via thephillyphour.files.wordpress.com

RW Mike Knuble's Career Stats:

Year	Team	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPA	SHG	SHA	GW	GT	SOG	Pct
1996-97	DET	9	1	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	.100
1997-98	DET	53	7	6	13	2	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	54	.130
1998-99	NYR	82	15	20	35	-7	26	3	6	0	0	1	0	113	.133
1999-00	NYR	59	9	5	14	-5	18	1	0	0	0	1	0	50	.180
1999-00	BOS	14	3	3	6	-2	8	1	1	0	0	1	0	28	.107
2000-01	BOS	82	7	13	20	0	37	0	1	1	0	1	1	92	.076
2001-02	BOS	54	8	6	14	9	42	0	1	0	0	2	0	77	.104
2002-03	BOS	75	30	29	59	18	45	9	8	0	0	4	1	185	.162
2003-04	BOS	82	21	25	46	19	32	4	7	0	0	3	1	192	.109
2005-06	PHI	82	34	31	65	25	80	13	10	2	0	6	0	217	.157
2006-07	PHI	64	24	30	54	2	56	10	8	0	0	1	0	160	.150
2007-08	PHI	82	29	26	55	-3	72	15	15	1	0	3	0	177	.164
2008-09	PHI	82	27	20	47	5	62	11	9	0	1	6	0	173	.156
Career		820	215	214	429	62	494	67	66	4	1	29	3	1528	.141

GS last year: 27

Knuble's been scoring fewer and fewer goals per game since 2005 (and, really, .4 goals per game in '02-'03 was about equal to his high of .41 goals per game in '05-'06, not to mention in a lesser offensive era). The trend is obvious:

GS/game:

'02/'03: .4
'03/'04: .25
'05/'06: .41
'06-'07: .38
'07/'08: .35
'08/'09: .33

That's by no means bad. It's quite good. My only point is that we can expect further decline from Knuble this year -- it was even obvious last year as the season went on that his legs were giving out.

Projected GS '09/'10: .31 goals/game, for a total of 25 GS

Net Goals Lost (Projected): 53.

Current Situation: 2008/2009 Total GS = 260

2009/2010 Situation: 260 - 53 = 207

Now for the additions:

RW Ian Laperriere

Past 4 years:

2005-06	COL	82	21	24	45	3	116	1	0	1	1	3	0	133	.158
2006-07	COL	81	8	21	29	5	133	0	0	0	1	0	0	118	.068
2007-08	COL	70	4	15	19	-5	140	0	0	0	0	1	0	68	.059
2008-09	COL	74	7	12	19	0	163	0	0	0	1	0	0	61	.115

What we can expect:

I'd be pleasantly surprised to see Laperriere score double digit goals again, let alone 21 goals. He's a defensive specialist at this point, although he does not shirk duties offensively. Given ~75 games played, and a better offensive team around him, I think we can expect a modest increase in GS.

Projected GS '09/'10: 10 goals

D Chris Pronger

via images.usatoday.com

Pronger Stats Last 4 years:

2005-06	EDM	80	12	44	56	2	74	10	32	0	0	3	0	155	.077
2006-07	ANH	66	13	46	59	27	69	8	28	0	0	2	0	166	.078
2007-08	ANH	72	12	31	43	-1	128	8	22	0	1	4	0	182	.066
2008-09	ANH	82	11	37	48	0	88	4	24	0	1	2	0	196	.056
Career		1022	142	464	606	153	1457	74	252	2	14	24	3	2300	.062

Going forward:

Pronger can't be expected to be Mike Green or even Zdeno Chara offensively, although his passing skills perhaps surpass both of those two players. Regardless, his goals scored probably won't be much different -- he puts up around 12 goals every year like clockwork, give or take a couple goals. We'll be a bit optimistic with his projection.

Projected '09/'10: 12 goals scored

Aside from that, we have not added too much. Given only these variables, the Flyers could be expected to score 229 goals this year (53 - 22 = 31, and 260 - 31 = 229).

We won't even discuss the defensive influx -- hopefully, a lot fewer goals will be going into our net this year compared to last year.

But we will discuss other important factors:

A) Danny Briere

via thefieldofplay.com

I cannot understate the importance of a full healthy season from Danny. Career stats:

2005-06	BUF	48	25	33	58	3	48	11	17	1	4	0	147	.170
2006-07	BUF	81	32	63	95	17	89	9	21	0	6	0	234	.137
2007-08	PHI	79	31	41	72	-22	68	14	23	1	3	0	182	.170
2008-09	PHI	29	11	14	25	-1	26	4	6	0	0	0	54	.204
Career		591	204	269	473	-28	459	81	114	2	28	3	1287	.159

Goals per game for the last 4 years: .42.

If we see a full healthy season from Danny, that's 34 goals. I think he will be healthier this season, but 34 seems a stretch.

'09/'10 projected: 30 goals scored

B) RW/C Claude Giroux

via www.sportsnet.ca

Claude's game really came on towards the end of the year. He scored 17 goals in the AHL last year, and 9 goals in the NHL, for 26 goals in 75 games played. True, the NHL GS is not the same as the AHL GS, but that's to be expected for a rookie -- I don't think 26 goals is a stretch for Claude this year. After all, he scored 9 in 42 games last year as a rookie, so 20 in 82 is almost expected if he doesn't improve at all -- and already, in the playoffs, improvement was evident. I'll be cautiously optimistic with Claude, and say that he equals Knuble's GS production from last year.

'09/'10 projected: 27 GS.

Suddenly, we've now added 37 more goals to the net output, bringing our projected total from 229 to 266.

If we go even more cautious on Briere (let's say, 25 GS) and Giroux (say, 23 GS), that brings the total down to 257.

Caveats: It may be unfair to expect Jeff Carter to remain a 45+ goal scorer, but then again, Coburn can be expected to put a couple more in net (ditto Carle), and Darroll Powe might even net 2 or 3 more this year. Hartnell having another 30 also seems optimistic, but it's possible. All things considered, as is the Flyers seem fairly likely to put in at least 250 goals.

Conclusion:

We've taken an offensive hit compared to what we would have if Knuble & Lupul were still Flyers, but I expect that the net effect on GS will be relatively low -- we still should put in around 255, give or take around 10-15 goals, and that is a fairly pessimistic projection. Last year, we put in 260 with Lupul & Knuble. This year, we oughta be able to replicate with full seasons from Briere & Giroux.

'08/'09 GS: 260

'09/'10 Projected GS: 255, +/- 10

We are, on the whole, about the same offensively as of right now as our net team effort was last year. This is assuming a whole lot of things you can't assume (no regression or injuries, for example), but it's also neglecting any positives (maybe an offensive breakout from a player or two or three -- why shouldn't Gagne, Giroux, and Richards each put up 35 goals, for example?), so on the whole I'd expect our GS to be within that 255 area.

Faceoffs Are Not That Important: Laperriere JUST what the Doctor Ordered

Alon — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 23:33:40 -0000

via media.canada.com

There's a lot of anger going around about recent Flyers signee RW Ian Laperriere, not so often directed at him (albeit with several gripes regarding his PIM) as at the fact that it makes signing a faceoff specialist unlikely. Let's delve a little deeper into the #s, and see whether that fear is well-founded.

So what if we don't have 3 great scoring lines? We have 2 exceptional ones still, and really a great defensive 3rd & 4th line (combined with 3 exceptional defensive pairings) oughta be just what the doctor ordered to cure our consistency issues. Goals come in bunches, but goal prevention is constant.

Laperriere is a fantastic, cheap signing, and while I'm sad to lose Knuble, it's okay because his loss (& Lupul's loss) will be mitigated by a full year of Briere (knock on wood) & Giroux (knock on wood).

I don't find FOs as big of a concern as everyone else. It's a nice luxury to have a great FO guy, definitely. But consider this:

via www.taipeitimes.com

Let's say Manny Malhotra would see 320 faceoffs a year (round his average). Let's also be generous and say he wins 190 of them (59% success). That means 190 faceoffs won in a full year. That, friends, equates to 2.3 faceoffs won a game. Would that make a huge difference? Darroll Powe wins ~48% of his faceoffs. Given the same # of faceoffs, Powe would win ~154, or 1.88 faceoffs per game. Let's say you play 3 games in a given week, that means that over 3 games, Manny Malhotra would win.... drum roll please... 1 more faceoff than Darroll Powe. You read that correctly -- just one more faceoff

via www4.pictures.gi.zimbio.com

Don't get me wrong, I love Malhotra, and he's a defensive genius I hope Powe will someday become. But when you're talking about bringing in players that are more expensive, let's focus on the real value to be had. Statistics say that if you're a 50% faceoff guy going against a 57% faceoff guy (i.e. Powe vs. Malhotra, about), the 50% guy is likely to win around 48% of the time. That means that if they went head-to-head 400 times in a season (just for sake of emphasis), Powe would win 192 of those faceoffs, Malhotra about 208 of them, for a net difference of 18 faceoffs. Over 82 games, that's a difference of .22 faceoffs per game, or about 1 faceoff every 5 games.

Those #s are basically generalizations, take some statistical freedoms, and should be taken with a shaker of salt, and should not be taken to mean faceoffs are not important or that I don't want Malhotra (I'd love the guy), but hopefully they'll provide a bit of perspective. Yes, faceoffs are important, but no, they don't make such a significant difference game by game that it would be exceptionally noticeable. What we should really be concerned with is puck possession time -- a much more important statistic correlated to winning than # of faceoffs won. # faceoffs won is loosely correlated to possession time, but more important is things like giveaway/takeaway ratio. We could never win a faceoff and still be offensively dominant (difficult but statistically possible) if our guys are fantastic at getting takeaways and not giving the puck away.

Signing Laperriere is signing a guy who accomplishes exactly that.

Briere Has Eye Surgery Done

Alon — Wed, 20 May 2009 14:26:44 -0000

As per ESPN.com

Philadelphia Flyers center Danny Briere will have corrective eye surgery Tuesday.

General manager Paul Holmgren says Briere will have a procedure called photorefractive keratectomy. He will take a few weeks to recover.

Briere says his contact lenses bothered him at times during the season so he elected to have surgery.

Hopefully he'll be able to produce even more after this type of surgery. Ideally, he should be producing over a point per game. Barring injury a la last season, there should be nothing to stop him from doing so.

Flyers Defenders - Surprises From Puck Prospectus

Alon — Sun, 10 May 2009 02:28:04 -0000

You may or may not have read my fanpost about the Flyers' post-season defensive stumble and what we need as a team.

Some of you asked what the Flyers' players numbers were and what our regular season SDP #s were.

Ask and ye shall receive, as I found out from the article's author, Robert Vollman.

"The top Flyers in the postseason for SDP were Andrew Alberts (2.00), Darroll Powe (2.10), Ryan Parent (2.71), Claude Giroux (3.29), Braydon Coburn (3.44). I'm afraid the numbers weren't kind to most of the Flyers, probably because of the penalties taken, and the high quality of their opponents offensively.

In the regular season the best Flyer SDP was actually Simon Gagne (2.96, #69 among those with at least 10 GP and 60 seconds of SH time/game). Andrew Alberts was right behind at 3.05, Mike Richards at #130 at 3.36, Mike Knuble 3.40.

I think the Flyers would do well to pick up some more defensive players. Statistically they were in the bottom third of the league defensively in the regular season and while they were good at killing penalties, they took far too many. Personally I think that half the team is really solid, but the Flyers get into a little trouble when the other half is on the ice. What do you think?" -- Robert Vollman

What does this tell us?

Firstly, we did have a few guys in the second tier of defenders. Alberts, Powe, Parent, Giroux, and Coburn all would probably be in the 20-60 range. That's not too-too shabby.

Secondly, Gagne might be a better 2-way forward than Richards statistically. And he should definitely at least be in the conversation. He doesn't deliver the huge hits, but he helps out in other ways.

Thirdly, it would be wise to keep ALberts. He's the type of player the Flyers should be acquiring. He was inconsistent, but still on the whole highly underrated for what he did for us (shut down his competition, apparently). Caveat: He played opposing teams' less-talented forwards, so it's to be expected that his #s are better than your Timmonen, who is expected to shut out the un-shut-outable.

Fourth, we oughta play the rookies more. Giroux and Powe are apparently very good defenders -- they both saw more and more PK time as the season wore on, and I'd expect that trend to continue next year.

He also gave me a fun link. It basically uses advanced stats to show how each of our individuals did. I added the minimum threshold of 30 games played, with the team as the Flyers.

Here's the link to some awesome stat tables.

Some interesting tidbits from that:

If we had 18 Claude Girouxs running around, opposing teams would score only just over 2 goals a game. His defense is pretty exceptional -- he shuts down whatever line he's facing unless it's the opposing team's top line or so.

According to goals against per 60 minutes combined with the quality of the competition, Randy Jones is pretty solid against the opposing teams' 3rd and 4th line. Caveat? Andrew Alberts' quality of linemates was very low, and Jones is a big part of that.

Timmonen is very good against their 1st and 2nd. Carle and Coburn are pretty good against their 2nd and 3rd lines. Gagne, Knuble, and Richards are all about the same defensively (which is to say, very very good) taking quality of competition and GA/60 into account.

Lupul is still bad defensively, but he's better offensively than Richards + Knuble.

Asham is a defensive liability, but is played as well as or better than Knuble offensively.

Giroux is as good as Gagne offensively already.

Hartnell is our 2nd biggest pts/60 min producer after Jeff Carter.

Luca Sbisa dominated the 3rd and 4th lines of opponents. He would be a significant upgrade over both Alberts and Jones.

Parent struggled mightily against the opposing teams top two lines. He also faced the highest quality competition out of anyone (we had a tough second half schedule, is the reason for the discrepancy vs. Timmonen).

I thought we could convince Mr. Vollmer to write an article, specifically, about what our Flyers need to win a cup. What do you guys think the team needs, based on those stats and the stats of other teams? I'll email him what our community says and see what he says.

Statistics of What the Flyers Lack -- Puck Prospectus

Alon — Fri, 08 May 2009 17:59:53 -0000

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=121

We need us some of these defenders. SDPs stands for "Shut-Down Player," and can be translated to football's "Shut-down Corner," guys who don't necessarily get all the stats (goals / assists / PIMs / interceptions / sacks / tackles), but are integral parts of the team because, specifically, they prevent the other guy from getting the stats. Think Nnamdi Asomugha or Sheldon Brown, football fans. NBA fans, think Tayshaun Prince or Iguodala's D. NHL fans, think the players below.

Put simply, all SDPs have three things in common: a low goals-against
average at even-strength, while killing penalties, and a low number of
penalties taken.

Player             Team        REG  ESGAA SHGAA PEN   SDP
Steve Montador     Boston      3.87  0.64  0.00   1  0.61
Stephane Yelle     Boston      2.55  0.91  0.00   1  0.87
Kevin Bieksa       Vancouver   3.36  0.49  2.25   3  1.08
Petteri Nokelainen Anaheim     2.61  0.00  4.49   1  1.19
David Krejci       Boston      3.06  1.52  0.00   0  1.22
Drew Miller        Anaheim     3.89  0.45  3.99   1  1.23
Jason Chimera      Columbus    2.93  1.33  0.00   1  1.28
Nicklas Backstrom  Washington  3.04  1.42  0.00   2  1.29
Ryan Getzlaf       Anaheim     4.86  1.33  0.00   6  1.38
Josh Gorges        Montreal    3.24  1.58  0.00   1  1.39
Michael Peca       Columbus    3.95  0.00  6.16   1  1.48
Marian Hossa       Detroit     3.13  1.74  0.00   1  1.48
Blake Wheeler      Boston      3.78  1.87  0.00   0  1.50
Niclas Wallin      Carolina    3.44  1.18  2.77   0  1.50
Rod Brind'Amour    Carolina    4.64  1.60  0.00   3  1.53
Matt Bradley       Washington  2.33  0.70  5.02   0  1.57
Tim Gleason        Carolina    3.57  1.64  0.00   4  1.58
Patrice Bergeron   Boston     16.46  1.56  0.00   3  1.62
Daniel Sedin       Vancouver   2.28  1.73  0.00   3  1.67
Daniel Cleary      Detroit     4.40  0.00  7.91   1  1.67

(Minimum of four games and at least one minute of penalty-killing per game)

REG: Regular-Season SDP, read it like a Goals Against Average
ESGAA: Even-strength Goals Against Average
SHGAA: Short-handed Goals Against Average
PEN: Minor penalties taken
SDP: Adjusting the ESGAA by adding 0.2 even-strength goals 
for each minor penalty, then averaging it with SHGAA in a 4-to-1 ratio.

Basically, the gist of the article is what we thought we saw. The Philadelphia Flyers played in 6 playoff games, thus qualifying for all the statistics in this piece, but not one qualified for the top 20 SDPs (shud-down players). Not even Timmonen.

What does this say?

Well, firstly, our defense was not good at all. We have Timmonen and Coburn and Richards and Carter, and they all seem like great defensive players, but the fact is even if they are they didn't perform as such in our series vs. the Pens. Even Columbus, which got absolutely creamed, featured a guy in the top 20. It actually featured 2 guys.

For all of our offensive prowess and our 2-way forwards, we couldn't get a single guy to be so good at defense that he shut the opponent down. Boston had 5 guys like that. Anaheim has 3 in the top 10. Both those teams have goalies that are suddenly dominating, and I'd hypothesize that it's not a random correlation. Is it the goalie that's responsible for the high level of SDPs for those teams? I don't know for sure, but NJ didn't have an SDP on the list, and they have the best goalie on this planet. Pittsburgh didn't, either. My guess is that the SDPs create the goalie to some degree, rather than vice versa. Probably it's somewhere in the middle (JSG didn't play well this year even with all those SDPs in front of him, ditto Manny Fernandez) but seeing as the teams with a lot of SDPs seem to consistently have good goaltending from one source or another, I think that the causative factor leans more towards the SDP side than the goalie side.

I'd guess we have a couple guys in the 20-40 range, so it's not like we're defensive slouches, but this playoffs we simpliy did not perform up to snuff defensively.

What does this mean going forward? We're fine with Biron. He ain't the problem. I bet if we got a couple of those elite SDPs (Nokelainen, Montador, Bieksa, Gorges all make our roster with ease), Biron or even Niitty go from guys who we talk about as "above average but can't carry us to the cup" to "Jonas Hiller outta-nowhere-dominant-WTF" 2.0.

Projecting the 53 Man Roster

Alon — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 21:13:30 -0000

I know Andrew usually has a say in this, but I figured while we're all excited about the draft let's get this little convo started:

Does this team have any weaknesses?

I projected the depth charts too. Most fluidity is at WR, where there will definitely be a great rotation at all levels (i.e. Brown will get a lotta PT)

QB (3):

1. McNabb 2. Kolb 3. Feeley

RB (4):

1. Westbrook 2. McCoy 3. Booker 4. Eckel

FB (1):

1. Weaver

WR (6):

1. Curtis 2. Jackson 3. Maclin 4. Avant 5. Baskett 6. Brown

TE (2):

1. Celek 2. Ingram 3. Dorenbos

O-line (10):

LT:

1. Peters 2. Herremans 3. Justice 4. Dunlap

LG:

1. Herremans 2. Jean-Gilles 3. Cole 4. McGlynn

1. Jackson 2. Cole

RG:

1. Andrews 2. Jean-Gilles 3. Cole 4. McGlynn

RT:

1. Andrews 2. Andrews 3. Justice 4. Dunlap

D-Line (10):

DE:

1. Cole 2. Parker 3. Abiamiri 4. Howard 5. Clemons 6. Smith

DT:

1. Patterson 2. Bunkley 3. Laws 4. Howard 5. Klecko

LB (5):

1. Bradley 2. Gocong 3. Jordan 4. Gaither 5. Mays

CB (5):

1. Samuel 2. Brown 3. Hobbs 4. Hanson 5. Ikegwuonu 6. Harris

S (4):

1. Mikell 2. Demps 3. Jones 4. Harris

ST (3):

K = Akers P = Rocca LS = Dorenbos

Total: 53

Offense: 26

Defense: 24

Special Teams: 3

Notable Practice Squads/Redshirts: G Gibson, G/T Tupou, WR Gibson, G Fanaika

Notable Cuts: S Baker, TE Schobel

Did I miss anything? What does everyone think?

Leave it to Cowboys Fans

Alon — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 20:37:34 -0000

This girl is a cowboy fan. I think she sums up nicely the type of shenanigans we've seen from Cowboys fans. One pose, thousands of pictures. Hilarious video. Bless that music.

http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/80605891/

Things to consider:

Would you have realized that she was a Cowboys fan by:

A) Me telling you?

B) Her Cowboys jerseys?

C) Her stupid-ass pose and seemingly shell-shocked friends?

Hopefully that tickles your funny bone.

Eagles Should Trade Down

Alon — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 00:19:33 -0000

I posted this in another thread about what the Eagles should do with their draft thread, but I figured it was long enough to warrant a fan post, and I wanted to see what people thought about the idea of trading down. I know we're all clamoring to select 2 first rounders to make up for our lack of any first rounders these past couple years, but where I'm sitting I dread the thought of trading up and like the idea of trading down.

Why?

Let’s assume that the pundits are basically correct in their long-winded commentary hypothesizing that there is a shit-ton of depth in this draft, and not a whiffle-nut’s worth of top-tier talent. The real value-for-pick in the draft comes at pick 22 or so. That’s right where our first pick is, for all intents and purposes. I’m delighted with that.

What that is also saying is that there isn’t a massive drop-off in talent from the 1st to the 2nd. So let’s say that a team with a pretty good pick this year, say the Bills or something, decides they want leverage on Peters. This is just a random hypothetical example, that I really didn’t think totally through, but there are real scenarios like that that could play out that are more realistic. Anyway, I’ve chosen the Bills. They want insurance at tackle, since beyond Peters they got some kids who still have gangrene from gross-ass college showers. These kids suck. They aren’t good. They’re not a replacement for Peters, who, like him or not, is a bona-fide left tackle. So the Bills (who, on a related note, also suck) decide they want a guy like Beatty in the second half of the first round.

Trade:
Bills send 1st round (2010) + 2nd round (2009) + 3rd round (2010)
Eagles send 1st round (28 overall, 2009) + 3rd round (2009) + 4th round (2010) + 5th round (2009). Is that a fair trade? I don’t know. Maybe. Probably not. I didn’t compare the value charts at all.

Would the Bills do it? Maybe. Probably not. They are giving up what will probably be a high draft pick, given their divisional opponents and relative suckitude. Plus Lynch is gone their first 3 games, so they’re gunning for 1-2 headed into week 4.

Would the Eagles do it? Maybe. Probably not. They give up a lotta picks this year for a lottery next year. I will say that if the Eagles DID do this trade, I’d be happy.

The points are all moot, however, because it’s just a scenario. The real points are as follows:

We would a similarly talented player in the top half of the 2nd round as we would in the bottom half of the 1st. There is so much fluidity of talent there that a pick in the first half of the 2nd round might as well be a bottom half of the 1st round. It’s all about getting the player you want there. If the Eagles like a guy that will be available for the 37th pick, there’s no sense in picking him at 28 when you could get him at 35 or 36 or 37 and get a great pick for next year as well. Even moreso if they like 2 guys that will be there, since they’re going to get one.

Secondly, I don’t want us to trade that first for Peters, or Johnson, or Edwards. Maybe I’d be okay with Boldin, but I really do not think WR is our biggest need. That would be a fun trade, and I almost said Boldin, but whatever.

Thirdly, I do not think we have the best player possible at every position. The draft is partially a crapshoot, so drafting 12 guys means you have 12 chances at finding a real gem. Let’s overdraft! We have a need at RB? Sweet, draft 3 of them, at least 1 will probably turn out. Need a tackle? We only spent 3 picks on RB, why not spend 3 more on tackles! A TE you say? Bam, 3 more. And that still leaves 3 picks to fuddle around with DB and DE and LB, if you so desire. Obviously we don’t need to draft 3 of everything, but we do tend to overdraft to fulfill needs, and bringing 12 college studs to camp is not a bad idea if it means we end up with great position battles, players striving to get better, and maybe the cutting of some guys that really aren’t all that, and we just think they are because we haven’t seen what someone else can do.

Phew.

Giroux vs. Forsberg??

Alon — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 18:52:28 -0000

Maybe the return of Peter Forsberg to Philadelphia happened after all.

No, not the real guy. He officially retired in relative obscurity a couple weeks back.

Instead, the 21-year-old, on-ice doppelganger of the talented Swede has emerged inside a Flyers’ locker room, 15 years after the original burst onto the scene in Colorado after he was traded away as part of the Eric Lindros deal.

Yeah, we’re talking Claude Giroux. Yeah he’s got that skill set. Yeah, he could develop into one of the game’s best players. And no, I’m not blowing smoke in your eyes.

Could be interesting. I thought the article (link) was really interesting. I don't know that Giroux will become one of the best ever, but I think he has the capacity to. The guy's been getting better and better at an astonishing rate every year (really, every game). What's his ceiling? Does Philly now have 4 elite centers (Richards/Carter/Briere/Giroux)? 5 if you count vanRiemsdyk?

Also, what does that mean for Briere's future? He's been playing well, maybe there could be a taker for him in a trade. It'd be nice to have enough room to sign a few guys and fill up multiple holes since we score at a great clip and Briere almost seems like surplus.

Time to Close the Burress Chapter

Alon — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 14:46:21 -0000

For everyone who thought we might be getting Burress, the idea gets less likely every day. In fact, it gets less likely every day for every team.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4045389

"Burress, who the police report said was driving like "he was going to kill somebody," was issued a $150 speeding citation, his fifth traffic ticket in Florida in the past month, the report said."

It's not so much the cost of the tickets as it is the fact that Burress has been collecting citations for doing illegal things amidst a serious trial. I doubt he gets off lightly, it seems as though he's doing all that he can to get the full 3.5 years for the gun charge.

Pretty sad story overall.