SB Nation User Blog: Andersklasen

Chicago Firesale? What The White Sox Received

Andersklasen — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 05:04:56 -0000

Late Monday night, after a 4-1 loss to the Twins, the White Sox announced two trades that effectively raised the white flag from the south side of Chicago.

Or did it?

Trade No. 1: White Sox trade Jose Contreras to Rockies for Brandon Hynick

Although this one technically came after the other trade, the ramifications of this trade are far less. Contreras boasts a league-leading 13 losses on the season and has an ERA of 5.42 to prove it. His ERA+ is just 87, and some would argue that this trade, via addition by subtraction, actually makes the White Sox better, even though it's unclear who will fill the rotation gap.

Hynick isn't a top prospect by any means. Rated #17 by Mr. Sickels in his preview for '09, Hynick has since posted an ERA of 3.83 through over 150 innings with Triple-A Colorado Springs. Neither his WHIP nor SO/9 are nothing to write home about, he has a ceiling of a decent back-of-the-rotation starter. Hynick hasn't made his major-league debut yet, but the former 6th round selection could battle for a rotation spot next year as a 25-year old.

Trade No. 2: White Sox trade Jim Thome to Dodgers for Justin Fuller and cash

I'm not entirely sure why the Dodgers need another designated hitter on their team, as Manny Ramirez seems to have that territory fairly well covered, but Thome is a potential future Hall-of-Famer who can easily provide some power off the bench. (Thome's last defensive game was June 13, 2007 as a first baseman - his only non-DH/PH game of season. He participated in three games in 2006 that involved wearing a fielding glove.)

Justin Fuller is an interesting prospect. He was an 11th round selection back in 2006, and is currently hitting an OPS of just .758 in the SALLY League. He hasn't shown any real power, nor speed, but can consistently get on the bases at a decent clip. Any other insight anyone would have regarding this young man would be greatly appreciated.

Thome is living off a $13 million club option this year, and many would assume he plans on retiring after this season. Could this trade simply be a friendly gesture from Chicago that would allow Thome to get one more chance at a World Series ring?

What do you think of these trades? Do they help Chicago in any immediate fashion, or are they simply salary-dumps? Does this signify the white flag being flown from US Cellular, or do they still have plans of taking down the Tigers?

Poll

What is the main result of the two trades the White Sox pulled off on Monday night?

What they received in return is under-rated and will help support a playoff push

1 votes

A salary dump; the White Sox are still in it to win it

50 votes

The white flag is being flown over US Cellular

99 votes

Other - please specify

3 votes

153 votes | Poll has closed

Prospect Rankings: Statistics

Andersklasen — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 03:19:59 -0000

(I originally posted this over at TwinkieTown, but I thought you guys would be full of insight and advice as well.)

When it comes to ranking prospects, I think actual on-field results top all and deserve most recognition/value.

Here is an attempt to plug actual statistical results into a "Master Prospect Ranking" formula that I will use in a few months to rank the top prospects in the Twins' system.

(Remember - this is just the statistical portion. I will add other components as time goes on.) After the jump I'll explain my thoughts...

The first thing I've done is find the league average of five major statistic categories in each of the five Twins' minor leagues (IL, Eastern, Florida St., Midwest, GCL) and assign penalties/rewards for being below/above average in each of the categories. There is no penalty for playing at the same level as the average hitter in the league. (Though there are flat values for each league, which I'll explain later.)

Let's take for example the International League, home of our Rochester Red Wings.

Batters

Batting Avg: .262 if >= 10 points above = +10
if >= 10 points below = -10

OBP: .328 if >= 10 points above = +10
if >= 10 points below = -10

SLG: .396 if >= 10 points above = +10
if >= 10 points below = -10

BB%: 8.78% if >= 5 points above = +10
if >= 5 points below = -10

K%: 19.67% if >= 5 points above = -10
if >= 5 points below = +10

Pitchers

ERA: 3.93 if >= 1 point above = -10
if >= 1 point below = +10

WHIP: 1.354 if >= .33 point above = -10
if >= .33 point below = +10

BB/9: 3.2 if >= 1 point above = -10
if >= 1 point below = +10

K/9: 6.9 if >= 2 points above = +10
if >= 2 points below = -10

K/BB: 2.17 if >= 2 points above = +10
if >= 2 points below = -10

(NOTE - These averages will obvoiusly change and I'll base the values off the new value whenever I rank the prospects.)

From this formula (you obviously use one or the other) you will get one solid number. This presents another problem: it is obviously easier to be an average hitter/pitcher in a hitter/pitcher-friendly league, as the case may be. So here's the ranking of the five leagues in order of their strengths, and bonuses that will be awarded in certain cases:

Hitter-Friendly Leagues (based on OPS)

International League (AAA)

Eastern League (AA)

Midwest League (A)

Florida St. League (A+)

GCL (R)

If average/below average in 3/5 categories:

- 5 points

- 3 points

0

+ 3 points

+ 5 points

If above average in 3/5 categories:

0

+2

+5

+8

+10

Pitcher-Friendly Leagues (based on FIP)

GCL (R)

Florida St. (A+)
2. (tie) Midwest (A)
4. Eastern (AA)
5. International (AAA)

If average/below average in 3/5 categories:

-5

-3

-3

+3

+5

If above average in 3/5 categories:

0

+2

+2

+8

+10

What do you guys think? How accurately would this rank statistical performance, and what improvements could be made?

Prospect Ranking: Statistics

Andersklasen — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 01:17:03 -0000

A while ago, I asked you for idea on how to best rank and evaluate prospects. There were many great ideas, but I think actual on-field results top them all and deserve most recognition/value.

Here is an attempt to plug actual statistical results into a "Master Prospect Ranking" formula that I will use in a few months to rank the top prospects in the Twins' system.

(Remember - this is just the statistical portion. I will add other components as time goes on.) After the jump I'll explain my thoughts...

Let's take for example the International League, home of our Rochester Red Wings.

Batters

Batting Avg: .262 if >= 10 points above = +10
if >= 10 points below = -10

OBP: .328 if >= 10 points above = +10
if >= 10 points below = -10

SLG: .396 if >= 10 points above = +10
if >= 10 points below = -10

BB%: 8.78% if >= 5 points above = +10
if >= 5 points below = -10

K%: 19.67% if >= 5 points above = -10
if >= 5 points below = +10

Pitchers

ERA: 3.93 if >= 1 point above = -10
if >= 1 point below = +10

WHIP: 1.354 if >= .33 point above = -10
if >= .33 point below = +10

BB/9: 3.2 if >= 1 point above = -10
if >= 1 point below = +10

K/9: 6.9 if >= 2 points above = +10
if >= 2 points below = -10

K/BB: 2.17 if >= 2 points above = +10
if >= 2 points below = -10

(NOTE - These averages will obvoiusly change and I'll base the values off the new value whenever I rank the prospects.)

Hitter-Friendly Leagues (based on OPS)

International League (AAA)

Eastern League (AA)

Midwest League (A)

Florida St. League (A+)

GCL (R)

Vick to Eagles, Two-Year Deal

Andersklasen — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 00:38:02 -0000

Well, there goes that rumor. Can't say I'm sorry to see it go.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4397938

Courtesy Mr. Mort, of ESPN: Vick agrees to two-year deal with Eagles.

Don't really know how Vick fits into Philly, besides as a publicity stunt or a Wildcat proponent. Should be interesting, to say the least. Why do we need 75 words per Fanpost? Should this have been a Fanshot?

Vikings Sign RB Antone Smith

Andersklasen — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 14:36:13 -0000

According to a Tweet from @VikingsFootball, a new name has been added to the roster: rookie runningback Antone Smith.

Smith signed with the Detroit Lions on May 8 as an undrafted free agent but was cut on July 27. He had a great high-school career, being named the top runningback recruit in the nation as well as being named a Parada All-American, Palm Beach County Player of the Y ear, Old Spice National Player of the Year, and MVP of both the Nike Camp and the CalFlorida Bowl.

Clearly, Smith has an impressive resume. And an incredibly fast 40 time of 4.25.

He could be a very nice third RB option and special teams player thanks to his great speed.

How to Best Evaluate Minor-League Prospects

Andersklasen — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 23:03:26 -0000

This isn't intended to be a shameless self-plug, but some of you may have seen the Top 15 Prospects list I compiled roughly a year ago at my site, TwinsFix.com. I largely stayed away from statistics and past performance and took a basic mathimatical approach, assigning values based on two factors: ceiling and chance of making the majors.

I made many mistakes in that ranking, and I intend to have you help me iron them out. :-)

Here is the simple formula I used last year:

(X (1.50) + Y (1.00))

X = Ceiling (I attached a value ranging from 110 to 40. Not entirely sure how I chose that range...)

Highest Ceiling

Aaron Hicks, 110
Deolis Guerra, 105
Angel Morales, 100
Ben Revere, 95
Tyler Robertson, 90
Shooter Hunt, 85
Danny Valencia, 80
Anthony Swazark, 75
Wilson Ramos, 70
Jeff Manship, 65
Mike McCardell, 60
Carlos Gutierrez, 55
Joe Benson, 50
Tyler Ladendorf, 45
Brian Dinkelman, 40

Y = Chance of making majors (50 points for AAA, 40 for AA, 30 for Hi-A, 25 for A, 20 for E-Town, and 15 for GCL. Also, 40 for 1st round pick, 20 for 2nd, 15 for 3rd, 10 for 4th-12th, 5 for 13th-20th, and 0 for anything lower. Also, an added 20 points if their signing bonus was anything over $1 million.

Highest Chance of Making it to the Majors

Trevor Plouffe, 110
Carlos Gutierrez, 90
Ben Revere, 85
Aaron Hicks, 70
Anthony Swazark, 70
Kevin Mulvey, 70
Luke Hughes, 50
Danny Valencia, 45
Tyler Robertson, 45
Chris Parmelee, 45
Angel Morales, 35
Jeff Manship, 35
Wilson Ramos, 30
Deolis Guerra, 30
Rene Tosoni, 30

Those Omitted from 2nd List, but in 1st List

Shooter Hunt, 80
Brian Dinkelman, 50
Joe Benson, 45
Tyler Ladendorf, 40
Mike McCardell, 35

(Those not in first list but in the second I gave a ceiling value of 35.) All that came to this list:
My Top Fifteen Twins Prospects

Aaron Hicks, 235
Ben Revere, 227.5
Shooter Hunt, 207.5
Deolis Guerra, 187.5
Angel Morales, 185
Anthony Swazark, 182.5
Tyler Robertson, 180
Carlos Gutierrez, 172.5
Danny Valencia, 165
Trevor Plouffe, 162.5
Wilson Ramos, 135
Jeff Manship, 132.5
Mike McCardell, 125
Kevin Mulvey, 122.5
Joe Benson, 120

Close, but not perfect. I want to add more values to this formula, but want your feedback as to how. Among the things recommended I add: age, improvement, past success.
Any idea how to change those into equation form?

Harvin Impressing at OTA's

Andersklasen — Fri, 22 May 2009 18:36:03 -0000

Harvin Impressing at OTA's

"It feels great," Harvin said. "There’s no better experience than what I’m going through right now. I’m glad to get the combine and all the stuff over with and finally lace it back up and get on the football field. It’s a wonderful feeling. …

"I can’t tell you where I’ll end up. We’re kind of doing a little bit of both, a little bit of plays running out of the backfield and some slot. They’re just trying to get me used to all the positions and I guess toward the end we’ll figure out what I’ll play."

Déjà Vu All Over Again?

Andersklasen — Wed, 20 May 2009 21:54:30 -0000

No, I am not going to write about Brett Fav-ruh. The mere mention of his name in my house has become a sin. Instead of discussing "You-Know-Who" I will take a brief delve back into the history of our Minnesota Vikings.

The year? 1993. The current quarterback? Sean Salisbury. The veteran new-comer? Jim McMahon.

via ultimatebearsfan.com

The Minnesota Vikings of 1992 were the first coached by Denny Green. After a brief stint as the head coach of the Stanford football team the Vikings brought him to lead their team to the promised land.

The 1992 season came and went, leaving an 11-5 record behind. After earning a Wild Card slot the Vikings then lost to the Redskins (who lost to San Francisco, who lost to Dallas, who won the Super Bowl that year). Behind center for the first few games of the season was Rich Gannon, who is officially given the credit of 12 starts on the year.

Actually, a virtual nobody by the name of Sean Salisbury was accumilating a significant amount of playing time thanks to less-than-stellar play from Gannon. On November 29 Salisbury was given credit for his first start of the season when the Vikings traveled to play the Los Angeles Rams. He threw for 238 yards, one interception, and no touchdowns. (Terry Allen kept the offense on pace during that contest, scoring a total of three times; twice on the ground, once through the air on a trick play from Keith Henderson.)

Salisbury would go on to start three of the next four games, leading the Vikings to a record of 3-1 during his starts. It also can't go without notice the fact that Salisbury out-threw the great "You-Know-Who" during the last game of the regular season. Salisbury threw two touchdowns and a total of 292 yards and no interceptions. That other guy? No touchdowns, three picks, and only 187 yards.

Gannon remained on the bench for the Wild Card game the next weekend and the 29-year old Salisbury was given perhaps the biggest oppurtunity of his life. He didn't deliver. Throwing just 113 yards, Salisbury totaled two picks and no touchdowns. The Vikings lost to the Redskins 24-7. (Remind anybody of our most recent Wild Card game?)

At this point, the debate of whether the Vikings should bring another quarterback on the roster raged in Minnesota. Jim McMahon, the successful quarterback from the Chicago Bears was available. Should the Vikings splurge, or was Salisbury enough to allow the Vikings to advance deeper than the Wild Card weekend next year?

Although there are conflicting reports regarding "He-Who-Shall-Go-Unnamed," will he be a better quarterback than McMahon was? McMahon was 34 when the Vikings brought him on the roster, and started twelve games in 1993. He would later leave the Vikings for the Eagles, where he would start just one game before eventually retiring after a few years of backup status.

I'm not going to sit here on my couch and tell you whether "You-Know-Who" is going to bring a Super Bowl to Minnesota or not. I will, however, post McMahon's 1993 stats below and let you decide for yourselves.

Year	Age	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Y/A	Rate	Sk
1993	34	QB	8-4	200	331	60.4	1968	9	8	5.9	76.2	23

And it Begins...

Andersklasen — Tue, 05 May 2009 21:55:15 -0000

And it Begins...

ESPN is reporting that our very own Brad Childress will sit down with the "great" Brett Favre later this week to discuss playing for the Vikings.

Let the Second Great Drama begin...

The Loss of Nick Adenhart

Andersklasen — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 00:11:39 -0000

The Loss of Nick Adenhart

I'm sure you're all aware of the tragic death of 22-year old Los Angeles Angels pitcher Nick Adenhart. While this is a football blog, the loss of a human life transcends any sporting barriers we may put up. Please feel free to head over to Halos Heaven to pay your respects.