Andrew Martin
Mar 26, 2008 May 29, 2012 974 54400
"People who clearly have lacking knowledge of statistics will say that statistics can be tweaked in whatever way pleases and supports the statistician’s opinion. These people have insufficient knowledge of the sabermetric community. If I publish something incorrect or fabricated I fully expect to have Tom Tango or MGL or Rob Neyer or some other smart individual calling me out on it. The constant and immediate peer review is a fantastic and terrifying thing.
"Look, you can argue that a day feels longer than 24 hours for as long as you want. That doesn’t make you anymore right. It doesn’t change that 24 hours being a day is a fact either. It just means your perspective is skewed on the subject for whatever reason. Perspective is the ultimate key when dealing with numbers. That’s why we use baselines, averages, and standard deviations. That’s why we have constant peer review. That’s why we don’t appeal to authority and that’s why we keep open minds."
--R.J. Anderson
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Know Your Foe #11: Oh Great, Dodger Stadium.
by Andrew Martin on May 10, 2012 9:00 PM EDT
in Know Your Foe
on Purple Row
There never seems to be a road trip where the Rockies fail to hit that doesn't have Dodger Stadium right in the middle of it. Last season, the Rockies batted a mighty .248/.307/.360 with 6 home runs in 9 games. Year before that, .234/.328/.321 with 5 bombs. See where I'm going with this?
Flip side of the coin is that if the Rockies hit poorly in Dodger Stadium, they must pitch well, right?
2011 in Dodger Stadium: 3-6, 4.89 ERA, 1.384 WHIP.
Bonus though: 2012 Rockies pitching on the Road? 3.48 ERA, 1.257 WHIP.
But enough about the Rockies.
I don't even know what more there is to say about Matt Kemp at this point. He's roughly on pace to at least surpass Roger Maris. He's leading the NL in OPS (Josh Hamilton's big night pushed him .049 ahead of Kemp). He's outhitting Bryan LaHair of the Cubs by all of 1 point. His most mortal point is that he hasn't stolen like 8 bases yet. He's batting at home even better than he did at Coors Field, by over 200 points of OPS.
The big upside of this series is missing Clayton Kershaw. Granted, the Rockies hit Kershaw for 5 of the 9 runs he's allowed this season (seriously), but you take these breaks as you get them.
The Dodgers are coming off of a series win against the San Francisco Giants, outscoring San Fran by a total tally of 16-5. They've played 12-3 ball in Chavez Ravine this season.
Hope isn't necessarily all lost for the Rockies. Despite the bad omens above, the Colorado showed some spirit in game 3 of the Padres series and definitely clawed their way to a series win when LA was in Coors Field. It's going to be interesting, one way or another.
Expected Matchups:
Friday, 5/11/12 at 8:10PM MT
Jamie Moyer vs Chris Capuano
Saturday, 5/12/12 at 7:10PM MT
Juan Nicasio vs Aaron Harang
Sunday, 5/13/12 at 2:10PM MT
Drew Pomeranz? vs Ted Lilly
Former Colorado Rockies Owner Jerry McMorris Passes Away - SB Nation Denver
The man who helped save baseball in Colorado died on Tuesday.
Padres 3, Rockies 2: Rockies... Drop... Thrilling... Opener... To... Pad... res
by Andrew Martin on May 8, 2012 1:43 AM EDT
in Rockies Game Wraps
on Purple Row
The most exciting moment s of this game involved Drew Pomeranz.
Top of the 3rd, Drew Pomeranz caught hold of a Edinson Volquez fastball and absolutely drilled it nearly into the 2nd deck in PetCo park's LF box seats.
Before that in the 2nd, Pomeranz took an Edinson Volquez line drive to the thigh, threw Volquez out at 1B, and then pitched the 3rd inning on pure grit and mettle. Not very sharp grit or mettle, either. Despite concern for Pomeranz's injury, Tracy didn't have many kind words for Pomeranz' pitching performance.
Pomeranz came out after the 3rd, visibly pained by his tightening leg, which post-game was revealed to have started swelling. It seems like it's just going to leave a nasty bruise, and Pomeranz will be reevaluated later.
It wasn't a fabulous 3 innings for Pomeranz, allowing all 3 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks to only 2 strikeouts. He had his moments where his pitches were landing well, but 34 strikes to 24 balls is an uncomfortable ratio.
Josh Roenicke continues to be quietly dependable, pitching 3 innings on 40 pitches, allowing 2 hits, 2 walks, and struck out 2 batters as well. Roenicke lowered his season ERA to 2.95 after the outing.
Matt Belisle pitched the 8th and started the 9th, and Rex Brothers drew a flyout and struck out Jason Bartlett to finish the Rockies' defensive night.
Defensively, the Rockies were solid for the most part, with some great grabs by Dexter Fowler and Todd Helton. The part that wasn't the most part was Wilin Rosario. He earned his 4th Passed Ball on the season with a blunder that scored the Padres' first run of the game. The second run came on a wild pitch from Pomeranz that hit the dirt in front of Rosario and skipped away, scoring Orlando Hudson from 3B.
The final run for the Padres came after back-to-back walks from Pomeranz which was followed by Yonder Alonso's second single of the night.
The bats remained cold and questionable, not taking advantage of some early wildness by Edinson Volquez. 4 walks and 5 hits weren't enough to plate more than 2 baserunners.
Bummer of a finish, and really a dull game. Let's hope the team's better for Alex White tomorrow.
Game Thread #28 Overflow
by Andrew Martin on May 7, 2012 11:30 PM EDT
in Game Thread Overflows
on Purple Row
GO ROCKIES
CONTINUE WINNING BECAUSE YOU MUST BE WINNING BY NOW
Rockies Game Thread #28: Edinson Volquez vs Drew Pomeranz
by Andrew Martin on May 7, 2012 9:03 PM EDT
in Rockies Game Threads
on Purple Row
Current Series
3 game series vs Padres @ Petco Park
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Colorado Rockies Monday, May 7, 2012, 8:05 PM MDT vs Clear. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65.
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| Tue 05/08 | 8:05 PM MDT | |
| Wed 05/09 | 1:35 PM MDT | |
Last time the Rockies saw the Padres, they took the series in 2-1 fashion, and ultimately ushered in the Rockies' longest winning streak this season: 3 games (after taking game 1 against Milwaukee), and by longest I mean "only".
Tonight, the Rockies will be facing Edinson Volquez, who has predictably rebounded from his miserable season in 2011 and is now thriving in the spacious confines of PetCo park. None of the upcoming pitchers in this series have ever pitched in PetCo, so we'll just assume that they'll do awesomely.
Really though, this is going to be an incredibly exciting series for people watching the farm pretty closely, and hopefully for people sick of miserable pitching as well. Pomeranz, Alex White, and Christian Friedrich represent a lot of the Rockies' future on the mound. Granted, PetCo won't exactly give us the best impression, given that I could probably post a sub-5 ERA pitching in San Diego, but it'll be interesting nonetheless.
Lineups and all that after the jump.
Monday Rockpile: Lack of Pitching Further Muddles Rockies 2012 Goals
by Andrew Martin on May 7, 2012 9:30 AM EDT
in Rockpile
on Purple Row
After a sweep by the hated Atlanta Braves, many Rockies fans are pretty pissed off with the way a lot of the season has gone. The bats have been inconsistent, the bullpen overworked, and the rotation horrible at best. Normally, this is where I would start tweeting something about Jim Tracy being awful or what have you, but the thing is, I can't do that this time around.
If we're going to pin the problems of 2012 on any one entity, I'll put the blame where blame is deserved: The rotation is simply not pulling its weight. This isn't exactly news to anyone, either.
Try this on for size: Through Sunday's sweep, the Rockies bullpen has pitched 96 innings. That's the 2nd highest inning load in MLB to the Royals. Through those 96 innings, the bullpen has sported a 4.30 ERA. When you consider the workload, that isn't that awful. In fact, Fangraphs WAR has the Rockies' pen as the 4th most valuable in the majors, at 1.5 fWAR. Baseball Reference's WAR isn't so kind, at merely 0.8 WAR, but there might be some rounding errors there or something. Those workload numbers shouldn't be so high this early in the season.
Here are some other fun numbers: excluding Sunday, Rockies starters were 3rd worst in MLB in walks-per-nine-innings, 6th worst in strikeouts-per-9, and 2nd worst in HR/9. Drew Pomeranz and Jhoulys Chacin are the worst offenders at gifting the free pass, both walking over 5 batters per 9 innings. Jeremy Guthrie has struck out half as many batters as he has walked - and a 3.70 BB/9, while bad, isn't end of the world bad. The only pitcher in the Rockies rotation who hasn't allowed over 1.30 HR/9 is Pomeranz, whose 0.90 HR/9 has helped him be the 2nd best pitcher on staff in terms of ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
Here's the worse news now: We're going to have to grit our teeth and bear most of this. We need to be patient with guys like Pomeranz and Juan Nicasio as they continue to grow into consistent MLB caliber pitchers. This isn't a surprise, either. The offseason "Acquire ALL the Young Arms!" theme was going to involve giving the young arms the rotation slots. This in turn involves a lot of crappy pitching performances while they learn.
Monday Off Topic
by Andrew Martin on May 6, 2012 11:35 PM EDT
on Purple Row
When my father returned from the war, he made a sketch of the park as seen from our windows, on Valentine's Day, 1945. It is buoyant and full of life because, only months before, being alive was a gift he thought he might have to do without. There is the northern pump house, the arched cast-iron-and-wood bridge, and though the gulls in a group over the Reservoir, as in a van Gogh, are messengers of mortality, they are small and distant, kept away and apart in great volumes of pale and roiling blue.
During my infancy no one ever bothered to tell me about the expanse of trees, fields and lakes that I stared at over the window seat as I stood on tiptoe. I thought what I saw was the entire world, that the immense line of buildings on Fifth Avenue, shadowed in morning, rose-colored in the setting sun, and sparkling in the dark, was Europe, where my father spent half the year at work. I believed that nature, although I didn't know its name, existed only in a huge rectangle set like a pool amidst a world of concrete and glass, and that the artificial world - which I thought was most of everything - orbited around it.
Jordan Pacheco Recalled to the Colorado Rockies from AAA
by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2012 2:10 PM EDT
in Transactions & Rumors
on Purple Row
Tracy Ringolsby is reporting that Jordan Pacheco has been recalled from AAA Colorado Springs to rejoin the Rockies for the Saturday's game against the Atlanta Braves.
Jordan Pacheco to rejoin Rockies today. Called up from AAA.Who goes down? Rosario? Moscoso? Someone elae?
— Tracy Ringolsby (@ROOTSPORTS_TR) May 5, 2012
Pacheco was sent down earlier this season to work on his defensive play at 3B and get consistent ABs with the Sky Sox.
Pacheco was on the Opening Day 25-man roster, and in limited playing time posted a .200/.273/.400 batting line in 11PA. The move was almost certainly just to get Pacheco reacclimated to playing the hot corner, but along with the time spent defensively at 3B, Pacheco also rewarded the Sky Sox with a .419/.471/.597 line over 69PA along with 3 longballs and 2 doubles.
After last night's 11-inning affair which saw Wilin Rosario make his first professional appearance at 3B, have his first defensive chance at 3B, make his first defensive assist at 3B, and also make SportsCenter's Top-10 (#10) with a ridiculous throw from foul territory, it seems that manager Jim Tracy would like to get more mileage out of the bats of his 2 catchers. Having a guy like Pacheco back in the majors will free the Rockies bench to use a backup catcher in a PH situation while not losing the safety net of an emergency catcher. Pacheco spent most of his minor-league career behind the plate, and wil be a corner infield utility man.
That said, the Rockies have gotten a combined .233/.320/.360 batting line from the 3B position thus far in 2012, partially fueled by a recent hot streak from utilityman Jonathan Herrera (.273/.385/.636 over his last week of play - 16PA). Should Herrera not be able to maintain his season .297/.366/.514 batting line, Pacheco will more than likely be competing for reps at 3B.
***UPDATE***
Guillermo Moscoso has been optioned to AAA Colorado Springs, Eric Young Jr. was placed on the bereavement list, and Adam Ottavino has been recalled along with Pacheco.
Moscoso was recalled to replace Jeremy Guthrie in the rotation after Guthrie injured his shoulder falling off of his bike. Over his 2 starts with the Rockies, Moscoso's extreme fly ball tendencies - which were mostly mitigated by Oakland's cavernous home field - were severely exposed by Coors Field. Moscoso posted excellent strikeout numbers, passable walk numbers (especially in the context of his near-10 strikeouts-per-nine rate), and an ERA over 11, fueled by a .467 BABIP and nearly 2HR per 9 inning. Given Moscoso's peripherals, more time to pitch through his struggles would likely show some regression to the mean - and thereby improvement - but with a stable of young pitchers waiting for their turn in the majors, Moscoso's troubles are harder to work through.
Ottavino has been pitching competently in AAA Colorado Springs, sporting a 4.15 ERA over 9 outings (13 IP) with excellent strikeout numbers (over 12 punchouts per nine innings). He will provide additional bullpen relief for the Rockies.
Friday Rockpile: Chacin Down, Torres Up
by Andrew Martin on May 4, 2012 9:30 AM EDT
in Rockpile
on Purple Row
As we know from Wednesday, Jhoulys Chacin has been optioned to AAA Colorado Springs. Taking his roster spot will be AAA starter Carlos Torres. Torres, 29, was signed as a minor-league free agent this past December, and was brought in mostly to plug organizational holes in the starting depth.
As we've all been watching this season, Chacin has been up and down - mostly down. Of his 5 starts, he surpassed 5 innings in only one, and only finished the 5th inning in 2 starts. His walk numbers are up, hits are up, and homers are up. That's about the brass tacks of the situation.
The more subjective side is that Chacin has just flat out sucked. Outside of that one start, it's been really hard to have any sort of faith in him. In fairness, he's only 24, and he has a lot of time to continue developing. I mean, his strikeout numbers are still there, and still very strong. He has the stuff to be a top flight pitcher, but he has to return to where we saw him 1st half in 2011.
I'm just hoping he isn't hurt.
The counterpart in this back and forth, Carlos Torres, will be brought up to bolster an overworked bullpen. Torres spent last season in Japan, making 6 ill-fated starts. Since signing with the Rockies, Torres has posted a 2.88 with the recently humidored Sky Sox.
Torres' strikeout numbers have been good, his walk numbers.... not so good, but he strikes out more than 2 batters per walk allowed, so we can work with them. Torres has averaged 5 innings per start, so on one hand, he'd probably fit right in with the current rotation, but given that the Rockies' rotation is essentially set for the next 6 games without needing a fifth starter, Torres will provide some much needed relief to a tired bullpen. We hope.
Part of me wishes we could have Tyler Chatwood or Alex White up right now, but Chatwood was pulled from his start on Wednesday with triceps tightness and White isn't fully stretched out at the exact moment. When the Rockies head to San Diego, they'll reevaluate the rotation (and where Jeremy Guthrie is in his recovery from his bike/shoulder accident) and see where the needs are. Renck suggests that White is a favorite for a promotion, if needed, but we'll see how things unfold next week.
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Friday Off Topic
by Andrew Martin on May 4, 2012 2:24 AM EDT
on Purple Row
Today's musical exploration comes from the band "Walk Off the Earth" as they cover the Gotye track "Somebody That I Used to Know".
I typically love cover songs. I like hearing a song I love done in somebody else's voice. It's not always good, but hearing those songs in a new fashion is always pretty fun.
What do you think, are cover songs good or miserable?
Know Your Foe #9: Braves Bring Hard Pitching Matchups to Coors
by Andrew Martin on May 3, 2012 4:00 PM EDT
in Know Your Foe
on Purple Row
Colorado Rockies fans have disliked the Atlanta Braves since 1995, when the Braves knocked the Rockies out of their first ever postseason appearance.
Not coincidentally, 1995 was the rookie season of one Chipper Jones, longtime Rockies killer.
Larry, who just turned 40 this April, is having an alright season for himself, batting .245/.309/.449 with 3 home runs. Kind of tepid, but that's an above-average batting line, per park-adjusted OPS+. In fact, only Matt Diaz and backup catcher David Ross even have an OPS above .800, and yet the Braves starting lineup is all posting an OPS+ above 100 (indicating an above-average batting line) with the exception of SS Tyler Pastornicky.
The Braves' pitching hs been generally strong, with the exception of Jair Jurrjens, who just last season posted a 2.96 ERA over 23 starts, has been demoted to AAA. Randall Delgado's 4 starts haven't gone swimmingly, but FIP suggests that there are better days in store for Delgado.
The surprise of the staff has probably been Brandon Beachy.
Yes, Brandon Beachy.
If you didn't know, Beachy was signed as an amateur free agent in 2008, having not been selected in any round of the draft. I did not realize that fact prior to this writing. You learn new things every day, right? Right?
Beachy, who was originally signed as a relief pitcher, split time between the bullpen and the rotation throughout his career, posting a cumulative 2.54 ERA in 213 minor league innings while striking out 10 batters per nine innings to only 2.2 walks.
Currently, Beachy is beating his career 3.23 ERA by nearly 2 runs, holding an ERA in 2012 of 1.38 over 5 starts. His strikeout numbers are down this year, but so are his walks, and his HR rate is sitting at a miserly 0.3 bombs per 9 innings.
The obvious flags for upcoming regression are clearly there, such as a .227 BABIP against and a 2.7% HR/FB, and a 3.79 xFIP suggests a pretty significant crash and burn. But for now, Braves fans are enjoying Beachy's contributions to the general cause.
Arbitrary prediction: Rockies take Tim Hudson's 2nd start in 2012 to lead off the series and force a little regression onto Brandon Beachy in the finale. Mike Minor, true to Rockies opponent fashion, holds the Rockies to a 6-hit, 1 run showing.
Visit Talking Chop to get a SBNation perspective on the Braves.
Expected matchups and stats postjump.
Fantasy Baseball Fan? Play Pick 6!
by Andrew Martin on May 1, 2012 1:01 PM EDT
on Purple Row
Do you like Fantasy Baseball but don't have the time to manage a full roster, trades, free agents, no drop lists, keepers, Bruce Chen, and other nonsense that comes with the territory of Fantasy Baseball? Want to spend like 10 minutes tops on your fantasy team and call it good? Well, check out what SB Nation has just launched:
Pick 6 is a daily pick'em game that pits you against other members of (insert blog name here) and the entire SB Nation network. Have you always wanted to prove your superior baseball knowledge on (insert blog name here)? Now's your chance.
Each day, users can choose six players to fill out their daily roster: a catcher, corner infielder, middle infielder, outfielder, starting pitcher, and relief pitcher.
The twist? Each user only has $120 of imaginary money to spend per day, and each player has a different cost. Player values are determined by their production and their popularity in Pick 6.
Successful users will strike a balance between expensive players and under-the-radar talent to take their lineup to the next level. Since this is a daily game there is no draft, no lengthy sign-up process - just you competing against fellow blog members for bragging rights.
It only takes a couple minutes to Pick your 6 - it's so easy to play! Go to the top left side of this blog and click on "Play Now" on the Pick 6 widget. Come back during and after games to see how you and your friends did.
For more information on how to play and how scores are calculated, please go to the Rules page.
Good luck and Play Ball! Play Pick 6 now.
Rockies 6, Dodgers 2: Venezuela Strikes Back
by Andrew Martin on May 1, 2012 12:27 AM EDT
in Rockies Game Wraps
on Purple Row
Tonight's game was all about the 7th inning. Juan Nicasio pitched very well, going 6 innings, allowing 2 runs with 4 punchouts and 2 walks. Carlos Gonzalez, Ramon Hernandez, and Troy Tulowitzki had 2 RBI apiece. Definitely a good game by the team.
The 7th inning was where everything got crazy. After padding their 4-2 lead with an RBI sac fly from Ramon Hernandez, putting the score at 5-2, Juan Nicasio was brought in to face Jerry Hairston, Dee Gordon, and Mark Ellis before turning to a tired bullpen.
After Nicasio allowed singles to Hairston and Gordon, Tracy had no choice.
First in the game was Esmil Rogers to hopefully induce a double play to lessen the inevitable blow of Matt Kemp coming to the plate. Instead, Rogers opted to walk Mark Ellis, leaving the bases full of Dodgers with nobody out for arguably the best player in baseball.
Rogers battled Kemp to a 2-2 count, and with everybody's breath held and fingers crossed across Rockiesdom, Rogers proceeded to hang a slider to Kemp.
And Kemp swung right through it.
The crowd went nuts.
The inning was far from over though, as Captain RBI himself, Andre Ethier, was up next. Tracy, loving his matchups, went to Rex Brothers in the bullpen to face Ethier. (Honestly, it was the right move. Ethier has some pretty gnarly splits v LHP.)
Brothers also battled his hitter to a 2-2 count, and like Kemp, Ethier went down swinging against Sexy Rexy.
Mattingly, knowing James Loney's handedness, opted to send out righty Juan Rivera to face Brothers. Tracy saw directly through Mattingly's ruse to outmatchup him, and immediately called to the pen to bring on Edgmer Escalona. (Again, no beef. Rivera is like Andruw Jones or Jonny Gomes - he's a lefty masher and that's about it.)
Escalona came in and immediately threw 2 balls to Rivera. Me, having zero faith in the silliness of baseball falling in our favor, began to quietly groan until Rivera took the first strike he saw and put it about 200 feet in the air, and about 120 feet away from home plate. Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, and Troy Tulowitzki converged in the shallow outfield, and one popper-outer popped out to another, and the 7th inning came to a close.
The Dodgers couldn't get anything going the rest of the game, and Rafael Betancourt looked downright nasty on the mound tonight.
And so, the Rockies left the month of April playing .500 ball.
Rockies Game #22 Overflow
by Andrew Martin on Apr 30, 2012 10:30 PM EDT
in Game Thread Overflows
on Purple Row
Rockies Game #22: Aaron Harang vs Juan Nicasio
by Andrew Martin on Apr 30, 2012 7:47 PM EDT
in Rockies Game Threads
on Purple Row
Current Series
3 game series vs Dodgers @ Coors Field
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Los Angeles Dodgers Monday, Apr 30, 2012, 6:40 PM MDT vs Clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70.
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| Tue 05/01 | 6:40 PM MDT | |
| Wed 05/02 | 1:10 PM MDT | |
All I know about this game for sure is that I hate Aaron Harang. He may have jumped to a couple of different teams since being in Cincy, but I still remember when he struck out like 40 Rockies batters in that one start in Coors Field. Harang MAY have a career ERA of 6.00 or worse in Coors Field, but something about that guy just owns the Rockies. Well. In that one start anyhow. BOO AARON HARANG.
Juan Nicasio, surprisingly, has pitched an out into the 7th inning in all but 1 of his starts, which is pretty awesome in itself. Nicasiowns.
Subscribe to SBNation's YouTube Channel!
by Andrew Martin on Apr 30, 2012 7:00 PM EDT
on Purple Row
Hey guys,
I know our Purple Row station kind of petered out pretty quickly, but that certainly doesn't mean that SBNation isn't still churning out content.
Check out the channel at http://www.youtube.com/sbnation.
Here's some baseball stuff they're putting up on a weekly basis:
Rob's Mailbag (Baseball -- New episodes on Wednesday): Get smarter about baseball with Baseball Nation's Rob Neyer. In Rob's Mailbag, Rob takes questions from viewers every week and breaks them down in absurd (and extremely entertaining) detail. Essential viewing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fgs-9mqspW4
The Petey and Lomo Show (Baseball; comedy): It's our first reality show and we followed Miami Marlins players Bryan Petersen and Logan Morrison (Petey and LoMo, to the initiated) as they tried to find ways to fill the boredom that is Spring Training in South Florida. Essential viewing: Marlins Off The Hook (i.e. Master-baiters):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqRwu8VyUv0&feature=plcp
Monday Rockpile: Helton's Heroics are Great, But What To Do About Pitching?
by Andrew Martin on Apr 30, 2012 9:30 AM EDT
in Rockpile
on Purple Row
Todd Helton is Clutch.
You all saw it yesterday, the dude is clutch. Down 4, 2 outs, 2-2 count, bases jacked? In his situation, I watch that homer drop, too.
Helton is leading the Rockies in Win Percentage Added, a stat devised to describe a player's impact on any given season in terms of percentage chance of the team winning a game. Currently, Helton is leading the Rockies, having added 1.63 Wins to their season total. Carlos Gonzalez is directly behind Helton, adding 1.54 Wins of his own. One of the major differences between WPA and your standard issue slash line is that WPA takes the situation into account. WPA will credit the batter more when they hit the game-tying RBI double, such as Helton did back on 4/13 against Arizona, while AVG/OBP/SLG will simply mark a double being hit. Clearly a double is more impactful in a high-leverage situation than it would be if your team was leading by 8.
It's been a bit weird to watch the Rockies so far in 2012. Currently, the Rockies are sitting at a 10-11 record, good for 4th place in the division, and the team's Pythagorean Win-Loss Record (or Pyt) is the same: 10-11. (That basically means that the combination of Runs Scored - 107 - and Runs Allowed - 110 - would suggest a record of 10-11.) Having a better record than one's Pyt tends to suggest winning the close games and losing blowouts, while having a worse record would suggest the opposite: tight games fall to the opposition, and the team has many a blowout. Around this time in 2009, Pythagoras suggested that the Rockies were better than their record, but it wasn't showing at that moment.
Friday Rockpile: Jeremy Guthrie - Potential Mistake?
by Andrew Martin on Apr 27, 2012 9:30 AM EDT
in Rockpile
on Purple Row
School of Roch: Off to a Rockies start
As we read Roch Kubatko's article on Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom, Kubatko comes out with this gem:
How many Orioles fans were outraged by the February trade that sent No. 1 starter Jeremy Guthrie to the Colorado Rockies for pitchers Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom?How many national publications ripped it to shreds - one of them calling it the worst deal of the offseason?
Not that I'm entirely taking this article at face value, but where was Guthrie for Hammel and Lindstrom panned as the worst deal of the offseason? I mean really? Guthrie was no ace, and Hammel had to prove he hadn't lost his fastball for good.
Coming back to the 2012 season, we're talking about some - yes, here it comes again - small samples here. Hammel wasn't that great in Tampa Bay, and he was OK as a Rockie, never posting an ERA below 4, but now he's sitting pretty on a 1.73 ERA with increased strikeout numbers and excellent home run prevention in his 4 starts in Baltimore.
See, I'm not trying to eschew Hammel's performance thus far; we have people who like digging through BABIP and FIP regressions to do that. But speaking of Fangraphs, Jason Hammel is currently the 2nd most "popular" player on the site behind Albert Pujols and ahead of Jose Altuve. I suppose most people aren't buying his numbers, either.
The SABR brass tacks of the matter say that Guthrie will be more valuable because of innings pitched. That's certainly an advantage he has over Hammel: Hammel would allow 6 runs on a bad day and they'd all come in the 4th and the Rockies would have to go to the bullpen; Guthrie allows 6 runs on a bad day, and he still goes 7 innings and saves the pen. (I'm awfully concerned about Jhoulys Chacin pitching in similar fashion to Hammel in that "5 runs in one inning" way.)
At the moment, it is looking like Guthrie was a bad decision, what with his near-6 ERA and sub-2 strikeouts-per-nine-innings. Amusingly enough, over his 4 miserable starts, Guthrie has compiled a 2-1 record. While pitching wins are 99.95% meaningless, Guthrie: Pitched long enough in at least 2 of those games for his team to take the lead and to be fair, is averaging 6 innings a start. That sounds exactly like the job description that Guthrie fulfilled when he was traded for.
Remember, too, that Guthrie likely has 28-30 starts ahead of him yet.
Here is a shortened list of important pitchers doing worse than Jeremy Guthrie in 2012: Clay Buchholz, Tim Lincecum, Adam Wainwright, and Jon Lester. Granted, FIP says that most of these guys are pitching considerably better than their ERA suggests, but it's hard to make much out of 4 games.
Subjectively speaking, Guthrie's been lousy, but he's been like Livan Hernandez lousy. That's a special kind of lousy, but that special kind of lousy often gets re-translated into "Knows how to stem the bleeding". I don't want the bullpen to be completely taxed by season's end, whether winning or losing, and having a horse like Guthrie is going to save their bacon. And yes, I realize the oddity of praising a pitcher for pitching a lot of innings when the innings have a tendency to be lousy innings.
Friday Off Topic
by Andrew Martin on Apr 26, 2012 11:37 PM EDT
on Purple Row
This episode of QI was particularly entertaining (potential slightly NSFW language):
Know Your Foe #7: Crippled Mets Limp into Coors Field
by Andrew Martin on Apr 26, 2012 4:00 PM EDT
in Know Your Foe
on Purple Row
It sucks to be the Mets right now. Actually, it has sucked to be the Mets since 2007. Much as I do sympathize, I can't think of a better time for the Mets to face the Rockies.
Jason Bay and Mike Pelfrey have hit the disabled list, Bay with a fractured rib and Pelfrey with swelling and possibly a partial tear in his elbow ligament. I can't particularly say I'm going to miss them, as Bay is a decent hitter against Colorado (although surprisingly he's below average against us relative to his career averages), but Pelfrey has a 3.06 ERA against the Rockies over 9 starts. Not that I'm totally convinced that Colorado is going to pull a rabbit out of their hats against the Mets' replacement starter, given the way they handled the Pirates, but who knows.
Despite Bay being out of the lineup, the Mets are currently swinging some decent stick. The following Mets' batters are posting an OPS+ above 130 (arbitrary I know, but it rounds out well): David Wright (170), Josh Thole (166), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (153), and Daniel Murphy (130). For perspective, only Michael Cuddyer has an OPS+ above 130 for the Rockies (140, to be precise).
Before Pelfrey went down, his 154 ERA+ led the staff. Behind him are Jonathan Niese (122 ERA+ and a nice little 5-year, $25.5M contract to go with it) and Johan Santana(118 ERA+). Upside: the bullpen is completely hit or miss, with ERAs ranging from 0.00 (Jon Rauch) to 7.36 (closer Frank Francisco).
This weekend, starting on Friday, the pitching matchups will be: Drew Pomeranz vs Chris Schwindon (in all likelihood, according to Eric Simon of Amazin' Avenue) followed by Jeremy Guthrie vs Dillon Gee, and then finally on Sunday, the bench will face Johan Santana in support of Jamie Moyer.
Prediction of zero relevance: Rockies sweep because Chris Nelson will go 11-for-16 on the weekend.
Steve Schreiber, also of Amazin' Avenue fame, and I exchanged some Q&A on the Mets/Rockies, so check those out post-jump.
Monday Pebble Report: POSTPONED
by Andrew Martin on Apr 23, 2012 12:40 PM EDT
in Pebble Report
on Purple Row
Hey there sports fans,
Bryan's internet connection bailed on him and he was unable to get yesterday's minor league action for you. We'll run full recaps of all the games tomorrow, but because I know our farm squad is itchin' to report their findings, we'll use this as the discussion point for now. Muzia went ahead and wrote the recaps for Bryan because A. he listened to most of the games anyhow and B. he's obsessed. So three cheers for Muzia, and here are your minor league recaps:
Las Vegas 9, Colorado Springs 2
Guillermo Moscoso was hit hard once again, allowing 8 hits and 7 ER in 5.1 IP, striking out only 2. His ERA is now up to 7.91 for the season. Offensively, the Sky Sox only managed 6 hits on the day, led by Matt McBride's two hits (including a double). The forgotten man of the Ubaldo Trade is having himself a stellar AAA campaign, batting .355 with a .879 OPS. Charlie Blackmon hit a triple and Brandon Wood hit his 2nd HR of the season.
Tulsa 6, Springfield 5
Joe Gardner had a very average day on the mound, with control issues limiting him to 4.0 IP, allowing 3 ER. Joey Williamson had his first rough outing of the season, allowing 4 hits in 1.1 IP. The Drillers got the winning run in the 8th inning as Angelys Nina scored on a throwing error from the center fielder. Nina, the diminutive utilityman, was the offensive star of the game with a grand slam in the 6th inning and doubling in the 8th inning.
Arenado went 2-5, raising his batting average back up to .350 for the season.
Modesto 7, Stockton 2
The Nuts were finally able to beat the Ports, riding a quality outing from Josh Slaats (5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 5 BB) who was able to limit damage. Slaats definitely struggled with the command of his curveball during this game and had to depend on his fastball for the majority, hitting 92-93 on the gun. Slaats faced bases-loaded situations in the first two innings of the game, but escaped with only a single run allowed. The much-maligned Nuts bullpen threw 4 solid innings to finish off the win.
Offensive stars of the game were Rafael Ortega (3 for 5) and Corey Dickerson (again). Christian Adames matched absolutely terrible at bats earlier in the game with his first triple of the season.
Rome 6, Asheville 1
The Tourists' mighty offense was completely shut down by Rome's pitching, managing just 4 hits on the day. Will Swanner had two doubles to bring his season average to .324 with a studly 1.024 OPS. We should really, really be talking about this kid more. David Kandilas also hit a double on the day, but that was basically it for the Tourists offense.
Vianney Mayo followed up his complete game 3 hitter from last week with a gutsy performance on a day when he didn't have his best stuff. The fastball was there (hitting 96 on the gun) but the curveball command was absent. Still, Mayo did an effective job limiting damage by striking out 6 Braves hitters. The bullpen again picked up the slack, allowing only 4 total hits the last 5 innings of the game.
Monday Rockpile: Jim Tracy and the 2012 Rockies
by Andrew Martin on Apr 23, 2012 9:30 AM EDT
in Rockpile
on Purple Row
If you've been reading my articles for any length of time, by now you know that there is no love lost from myself toward the Rockies' Manager, Jim Tracy. Countless tweets of frustration and bewilderment litter my online history. Articles and comments and snide quips made as I walk through the gates of Coors Field have amassed to the point where I could stuff a mattress with them.
After the first Sunday of the season when the Rockies trotted out the B team en route to a seemingly inevitable loss, the wheels in my jaded mind began turning of how to properly write the "Jim Tracy is Costing This Team Wins" article. The pieces of evidence seemed just so blatantly obvious: years of undermining young, struggling MLB players with questionable playing time and not a shred of patience to build them up; bullpen usage that seemed senseless at best; resting starting players all at once, leaving a team of bench players to try and win on Sundays. The list could go on, but I think you get the picture.
The last 2 Sundays have been different, though. My immediate reactions to my own vitriol have tempered the boiling fury. For example, why SHOULDN'T Tyler Colvin get some starts? He's batting .323 with a .860 OPS, considerably better than his counterpart Dexter Fowler (.222/.749). Why shouldn't Wilin Rosario get starts? The kid has to play sometime, especially given Ramon Hernandez' knees and age. Why shouldn't Jonathan Herrera get a couple of starts? He's defensively competent and he's hitting the ball well right now, and it's not as if Marco Scutaro is doing much more than making tough outs.
For the most part this season, I haven't had much to bitch about when it comes to Jim Tracy, which surprised me. His bullpen usage has been mostly logical and the miscues have been far enough between each other to excuse under the "well, everyone makes mistakes" blanket. He's left Chris Nelson alone for the most part at 3B, and while Nelson is certainly having struggles of his own, he's getting the chance to work out of it (which is also likely in part due to a lack of better options). Really, this seems a lot like 2009, when the team won 92 games.
Wait. 2009? Let's hop in the wayback machine and discuss 2009. Join us past the jump as we continue this journey of frustration.
(Pre-emptive apologies: this gets a bit verbose.)
Did Peyton Manning Sign with Broncos Because of Todd Helton? - Bolts From The Blue
The short answer is yes, yes he did. That's just how awesome Todd Helton is.
Monday Off Topic
by Andrew Martin on Apr 22, 2012 11:59 PM EDT
on Purple Row
I don't know why I've always felt so closeted about listening to Nickel Creek. I enjoy the hell out of them, but something always holds me back from being all "hell ya I listen to those guys!"
I think I just wish I had even a fraction of their individual musical talents. Oh, and they're all incredibly attractive people as well.
Saturday Pebble Report: Alex White Stays On Track
by Andrew Martin on Apr 21, 2012 1:00 PM EDT
in Pebble Report
on Purple Row
Once again this week our own RhodeIslandRoxFan is writing the Saturday Pebble Report. Who knows, maybe this will become a regular thing? -ed
AAA Colorado Springs - W 6-2, (10-6, 2nd, 1.0 GB)
For the sixth time in their last seven games, the Sky Sox were victorious. #6 PuRP Alex White twirled 5.2 scoreless innings while allowing just three of the first 19 batters he faced to hit a fly ball out of the infield. He did surrender three walks, but the lasting memory of this outing will be White's ability to stay in control of the game with his strong sinker.
Offensively, the big stars were "that other guy in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade" Matt McBride, #20 PuRP Thomas Field, and the Tucson defense. McBride was on base four times raising his OPS on the season to an impressive .895, Field led the team with three hits and two RBI, and the Tucson defense committed four errors. Perhaps the most disappointing element to this contest was Charlie Blackmon, who took an 0-5 and continues to struggle. He's now batting just .172 on the season.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=t551&t=g_box&gid=2012_04_20_tucaaa_cspaaa_1
AA Tulsa - L 3-1, (9-5, 1st)
Parker Frazier took the loss but probably deserved better here as he went six innings, giving up three runs and collecting four strikeouts.
The Drillers offense was once again handcuffed by the Springfield pitching staff. This time, five different Cardinal pitchers combined to strike out 11 Drillers and limit the Tulsa offense to just a single run. However, all four of the top 30 PuRPs starting this game (#2 Nolan Arenado, #9 Josh Rutledge, #22 Kent Matthes, and #26 Ben Paulsen) did get on base at least once.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=t260&t=g_box&gid=2012_04_20_tulaax_spraax_1
Chris Narveson Injury: Milwaukee Starter Has Torn Rotator Cuff - Baseball Nation
This definitely will throw Milwaukee's rotation off. Rob Neyer is suggesting that swingman Marco Estrada will take his slot, but they haven't announced a replacement yet.
Friday Rockpile: Campos Released, Moyer Still Old, Nelson Learning
by Andrew Martin on Apr 20, 2012 9:30 AM EDT
in Rockpile
on Purple Row
We saw that Albert Campos was released by the Rockies on Wednesday with not a lot of talk as to why. Yesterday, Ben Badler of Baseball Prospectus reported that Campos had never actually reported to Spring Training, and at the time of his release, was still in Venezuela. Campos had also been involved in an off-field incident - some sort of physical altercation.
For a team as heavily invested in the Venezuelan baseball market as well as their own farm system, we know that the Rockies don't just release guys for no reason. This wasn't just some little thing. For awhile there, we thought that Campos could be the next latin stud pitcher coming through the Rockies system in the vein of Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales, or Jhoulys Chacin.
The Rockies have been pretty tight-lipped about Campos' release, which of course only piques curiosity that much more. For the sake of us curious, I hope something comes out sooner than later, but for now, we'll just have to assume that the Rockies tossed the bad apple before it ruins the bunch.
Much more past the jump.
Friday Off Topic
by Andrew Martin on Apr 20, 2012 12:43 AM EDT
on Purple Row
Totally not an official video, but I can't stop listening to this song. Enjoy.
Sports Radio Interviews " Blog Archive " Colorado’s Jamie Moyer Becomes the Oldest Pitcher Ever to Win a Major League Baseball Game
Jamie Moyer discusses setting the record for being the oldest starting pitcher to win a game in league history, why records aren’t why he returned to the game, his success being proof that you don’t have to be the most athletic player on the field, winning the record-setting game with a 23-year-old catcher as his battery mate, being asked to leave the game and coach 20 years ago, this year’s Rockies team and its chances to contend, and facing 8.9 percent of the MLB hitters to have ever played.
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