Dexter Fowler has a problem. In fact, he has several. He's a poor bunter, a poor basestealer, he strikes out too much and he is an inconsistent fielder. He stance seems awkward, he's susceptible to the low-and-in slider, his load/hand position is not consistent and he seems to let positive adjustments slip away over time. Fowler was often comped to Devon White when coming up through the system, but he hasn't hit for the power, stolen the bases or played the elite defense White did. When looking at Fowler, a slender African-American that runs like a gazelle, one would expect a slash hitter with bunting, defense and basestealing skills galore.

Quite simply, Dexter Fowler is very deficient in skills he appears he should have, and he appears awkward and inconsistent at the plate. That body bias has led to many people looking for a way to explain why his numbers are not as impressive as they appear on paper. When a player is both disappointing and awkward, it is simply unfathomable that such a player could be a reliable asset.

This paralysis by analysis seems to have hit several people, even those I deeply respect, as his larger body of work is explained away by smaller samples. One does not have to like how a process looks to appreciate the results.

850KOA's Dave Krieger did not buy in to Fowler's strong slash line last week, saying it seemed his stats were padded by low leverage at-bats. I linked him to Fowler's splits via twitter, which actually backed up Krieger's claim. He cited the splits on the radio waves, plugging Purple Row in the process (Thanks Dave!). The problem is that those splits, while wholly accurate at the time, were also subject to fairly small sample size. In one day yesterday, Fowler normalized those leverage splits. Generally, legitimate trend splits are not within range of normalization in one day. Further, his exceptional showing with runners in scoring position in 2012 suggest there was never a fundamental flaw under pressure.

There's more.

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How was Memorial Day for everyone else? I managed to get away from life to relax in Estes Park for the fourth straight Memorial Day.

AAA Colorado Springs - L 0-1, (25-24, L1, 2nd 1.0 GB)

The recently demoted Charlie Culberson hit an unassuming ground ball in the first inning that usually would mean little. This time, it came with the bases loaded after two singles and a HBP with one out that Hernan Irribarren (2012, MiLB FA) and #20 PuRP Tommy Field (2008, 24th round) could not convert into an inning ending double play. The significance? A run scored, the only run either team would manage last night in Fresno. Rob Scahill (2009, 8th round) paid for the plunking in an otherwise wildly effective outing. He allowed the one run on five hits, walked four and threw 58% of his pitches for strikes. The offense managed just five hits, but three were doubles, including one by Brandon Wood (2012, MiLB FA) in the ninth inning.

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AA Tulsa Drillers - W 7-3, (28-20, W2, 1st)

The disappointing season of #18 PuRP Joe Gardner (2011, trade) had its brightest spot last night. The right-hander worked six innings, four of them 1-2-3 frames, while allowing just one hit. That hit was a ground ball single that scored a runner from second who had walked and advanced on a ground out. Offensively, the Drillers got two hits and at least one RBI from #9 PuRP Josh Rutledge (2010, 3rd round), Tim Torres (2012, MiLB FA), Lars Davis (2007, 3rd round), and Michael Mitchell (2007, 25th round). #2 PuRP Nolan Arenado (2009, 2nd round) also had a 2-run single.

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Whatever dreams Rockies fans may have had for 2012, the clear goal of the season was to acquire as many young arms as possible, then identify which ones would be worth building around in the rotation. As Grant Brisbee expertly depicted yesterday, sometimes this all comes together quickly, and playoff contention follows. More often, the result of a season of auditioning is what the Rockies have seen: a lack of quality pitching, and a lack of quality starts.

"Quality starts" are defined as a start of 6 or more innings allowing 3 or less runs. The term gets criticism, considering the 4.50 ERA it engenders, but as Sky Kalkman pointed out yesterday, 6 IP of 3 ER plus 3 innings of an average bullpen equals 4.17 runs per game, which is league average this year. You can win every game that way. More accurately, the average quality start holds an ERA near 2.00. Beyond that, picking up consistent innings is easier on the bullpen, and the Rockies' deficiency in this department has the relievers significantly overworked.

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I am not going to mention Rebecca Black.

Low-A Asheville - W 7-2, (30-15, W7, t-1st)

McCormick Field is treating the Tourists pretty well these days. After closing out their last road trip with two losses, Asheville swept their seven game homestand, which ties them with Charleston RiverDogs (Yankees) for first in the Northern Division. #14 PuRP Tyler Anderson (2011, 1st round) led the way in his 3rd pro start, allowing just four baserunners - all hits, three doubles - in seven very strong innings. He struck out six, didn't walk a batter and allowed two runs, one of which was unearned thanks to an error from Harold Riggins (2011, 7th round). Anderson now has a 1.89 ERA, with 14 strikeouts and just 2 walks in 19 IP. He has allowed 6 hits in 14 innings at home.

The Tourists gave Anderson a comfortable lead in a 6-run 4th inning. After a leadoff double by HM PuRP Sam Mende (2011, 31st round) and a Riggins strikeout, Asheville lined up six straight singles. All three outs in the inning were made with two of the Tourists' top hitters at the plate - Riggins' strikeout, a #12 PuRP Trevor Story (2011, sandwich pick) flyout, and Delta Cleary Jr (2008, 37th round) getting picked off with Story at the plate. Cleary drove in three with two hits, Mende doubled twice, and #28 PuRP David Kandilas (2008, Australia) and Jared Simon (2010, 6th round) each doubled, singled and walked.

The Tourists traveled to Rome, Georgia after their early game yesterday. They'll have a doubleheader today, with Chris Jensen (2011, 6th round) taking the mound for a 3:00 MDT start in Game 1. Geoff Parker (2010, 9th round) will pitch Game 2.

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The Rockies have officially lost so many times this month, baseball is out of scripts. Last night, Colorado took a 4-0 lead in the top of the first, only to see their starting pitcher cough up the lead in the 4th after starting strong. The offense went to sleep after the first and they lost 7-4.

Tuesday night, Colorado took a 3-0 lead in the top of the first, only to see their starting pitcher cough up the lead in the 3rd after starting strong. The offense didn't live up to the early promise after the first and they lost 7-6.

Three soft liners from Jonathan Herrera, Jordan Pacheco and Michael Cuddyer fell for singles in that first frame, in addition to a RBI line drive single from Todd Helton got the Rockies two runs. Wilin Rosario hit a sacrifice fly to give Juan Nicasio a sufficiently comfortable lead to blow.

Nicasio struggled to his worst road start of the season, as he walked three and allowed 9 hits in just 5 innings.

As it seems to be more and more of late, the Rockies' loss was punctuated by another confusing managerial move by Jim Tracy. Down 7-5 in the 8th inning with two runners on and no outs, Tracy elected to use Jason Giambi to pinch hit for Dexter Fowler. This move was confusing for four reasons:

1. Marco Scutaro had to replace Jonathan Herrera due to injury, Ramon Hernandez is nursing a sore thumb, and Tyler Colvin had already pinch hit, leaving essentially only Giambi and Eric Young Jr. left on the bench.
2. There were no outs and the pitcher's spot was due up next. As long as Dexter Fowler didn't hit into a triple play, Giambi could pinch hit in the pitcher's spot no worse than the tying run.
3. While Fowler was 0-for-3 on the night, he is hitting .364 with RISP and trails only Carlos Gonzalez in wRC+ this year.
4. Due to burning two outfielders, Eric Young Jr. was forced to pinch hit following Giambi's swinging bunt. He struck out, then had to play center field.

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rta

Ricky Nolasco has made six starts against the Rockies, and he has won five of them. The Rockies have not won a game in a week or at Marlins Park ever. There is some good news though, asthe last time Ricky Nolasco faced the Rockies, he gave up 11 runs in 3 innings. That was good for a -6 game score, good for the worst start by any pitcher in either league in all of 2011. So maybe that's a good thing for tonight?

Nicasio and Nolasco, despite having comparable last names, also have very, very comparable pitching lines for 2012. Nearly everything is a cough away from identical, except for those strikeouts. Via FIP, Nicasio is a small leap better than the Marlins' $9 million man.

I got nothin today, folks. Carry on.

The Colorado Rockies are mired in one of the worst months in franchise history. No amount of ketchup removes the rotten egg smell. They've lost in every way possible, pissing away a lead late, squandering an early lead, hardly showing up, being on the wrong end after an entertaining circus, falling just shy in a well-played game.

With just 15 wins on May 22, Colorado has just one win than the Twins, who bring up the rear in MLB once again. Their 15-26 record, while two games better than the 2005 Rockies on this date, is still on pace for 103 losses. Colorado has never lost more than 100 games; in fact, they have never tallied more than 95 L's in a season, something they reached in 1993 and 2005. Along with the Angels, the Rockies remain one of two MLB franchises to avoid that shallow mark.

With the loss yesterday, the losing is offiically wearing on the Rockies players as well as fans.

"It's disgusting what is happening...We are not this bad." - Matt Belisle

That is, of course what everyone wants to believe, and I certainly believe this to be true. This can be shown with numbers, as RhodeIslandRoxFan has calculated the wide gap in performance vs. projections, even tempering the projections a bit. It hasn't just been Jeremy Guthrie and Jhoulys Chacin, who are the most glaring culprits. After starting well in April, Michael Cuddyer has fallen on hard times in May. (Click here for very depressing graphic).

As with most any team playing this poorly, there is bound to be a kick back to respectable play. Heck, that 2005 squad was built to lose and still rebounded quite a bit. It is doubtful this team will lose 100 games, as they are just 3 games past the pace now, well within range of better bounces and one breakout performer.

It could happen though. April was a home-heavy, fairly light schedule. June won't be so kind. Their schedule until the All-Star Break:

Home: HOU (.452) x4, LAD (.690) x3, LAA (.419) x3, OAK (.512) x3, WSN (.595) x4, SDP (.372) x3

Away: MIA (.548) x2, CIN (.537) x3, ARI (.442) x3, DET (.488) x3, PHI (.488) x3, TEX (.605) x3, STL (.548) x4, WSN (.595) x3

Of the fourteen opponents they are slated to play, only six have losing records. Of those six, four were popular choices for divisional champions. Even if Colorado gets some positive regression to the mean, their superior opposition in June figures to cancel some of that out. Should the team stumble through that month, particularly the 10-game road trip through Detroit, Philadelphia and Texas, the Rockies' status as a seller will be completely set in stone.

At that point, on comes the youth for an extended audition. With youth comes growing pains. Even the best homegrown talents struggled in their first few months in The Show. The expected production for the second half of the season takes a nosedive.

It may get better. It probably will. It certainly is no guarantee though, and it takes little effort to spin a tale of a 100-loss season. While 2012 was bot built to be a contending year, should they stumble to triple digits in L's, there will be no defense for it.

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A second baseman takes a hard slide from a runner while fielding a throw. He goes down, in pain from the impact. He guts it out, stays in the game, then leaves because of the pain. Then, 24 hours later, the second baseman's leg literally dies, and he is forced to retire. It's an extremely common story in baseball...well, except for that last little sentence.

That could have been Mark Ellis' story, which would have been an extremely sad way to leave a legacy. On Friday night, Mark Ellis suffered a leg injury when Tyler Greene slid into his leg. Ellis remained in the game, batted once, then was taken out and sent to have X-rays, which were negative. He felt fine, then went to sleep.

He was in pain when he returned to Dodger Stadium in the morning, leg swollen. Dodgers trainer Sue Falsone did not like the looks of Ellis' leg, so the Dodgers decided to send him to the hospital. It turns out fluid had built up in his leg, forcing an emergency "fasciotomy," which is essentially a surgical procedure involving placing a large cut (~6") on the body to release fluid pressure, like a lit in an inflatable swimming pool. It is exactly as beautifully disgusting as you imagine. That cut will remain open through tomorrow to ensure full drainage.

Had doctors attempted the procedure 6-7 hours later, the muscle tissue in Ellis' leg may have died, essentially forcing the amputation of an athlete's leg 24 hours after being slid into at second base...a play that has occurred to second baseman thousands of times.

Ellis should be fine now, barring infection, but he will be out at least six weeks. Ellis was having a strong season for Los Angeles, and with Juan Uribe hurt, the Dodgers don't have much in the way of able, experienced replacements. Of course, with the way Saturday went, the only emotions tied to Mark Ellis in Los Angeles right now are relief and thankfulness.

Mark Ellis

#14 / Second Base / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 5-10

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jun 06, 1977

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2012 - Mark Ellis	37	132	27	36	4	1	2	9	18	18	3	0	.273	.373	.364

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AAA Colorado Springs - W 4-3, (23-19, W3, 1st)

Rob Scahill (2009, 8th round) had one of the more impressive performances on the farm last night, and he didn't even pitch. He actually was chosen to pinch hit with the winning run on second base with one out in the ninth inning. Scahill came up with a big hit, and #20 PuRP Tommy Field (2008, 24th round), who had reached via catcher's interference and advanced from a bunt, scored from second with the help of a throwing error in center field.

Hernan Irribarren (2012, MiLB FA) doubled home a run and scored on an error, then later singled and scored on a wild pitch. Guillermo Moscoso (2012, trade) was dominant for his first six innings, allowing just a run on two through six frames. The wheels came off in the seventh, as he coughed up the lead with two doubles, two singles and one ground out. HM PuRP Edgmer Escalona (2005, VZ) battled control issues to earn the win with 1.1 scoreless. Carlos Torres (2012, MiLB FA) gets the start today in the series finale at 1:05 MDT as the Sky Sox try to sweep the four game series from the Zephyrs.

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AA Tulsa - L 0-1, (24-18, L6, t-1st)

The Drillers slide continues, as Tulsa has now lost six straight after starting the season 24-12. Nick Schmidt (2012, trade) pitched well again, allowing just a solo home run to Kolten Wong in seven strong innings. He struck out seven and walked one while efficiently scattering seven hits. The offense managed just two hits, with Angelys Nina leading the way with two, including their only extra base knock, a double. #2 PuRP Nolan Arenado (2009, 2nd round) achieved a single to keep his hitting streak intact. After having zero walks from April 20 to May 17, #9 PuRP Josh Rutledge (2010, 3rd round) has now walked in consecutive games. #18 PuRP Joe Gardner (2011, trade) gets the start today trying to break the Drillers' losing streak.

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via gizmodo.com

I find the clear presence of human/medicine manipulation around/on February 14, July 4, Thanksgiving and Christmas very amusing

When you play a game like yesterday's in a season like this year's, there is plenty of blame to go around.

Despite allowing just one run on two hits with seven strikeouts, Juan Nicasio was such an infrequent acquaintance with the strike zone that he couldn't get out of the fifth inning. That is job number one of a starting pitcher. Blame to the starter. In 4.1 IP, six relievers combined to allow 8 runs on 11 hits, 4 walks and a wild pitch. Yeah the pen didn't hold up their bargain.

Offensively, the lineup gave more than enough, but Ramon Hernandez managed to swing at the first pitch with one out and the bases loaded in the eighth inning....and the ninth inning, both frames in which Arizona's reliever was experiencing wildness of his own.

Jim Tracy wasn't shy about showing his displeasure with the pitching:

"You can't pitch any worse than that. It's just that simple. We did not pitch well from the first inning on...We should have won this ballgame. It's that simple. You have to understand that this is what's holding us up." - Jim Tracy

It isn't really that simple, as blame can truly be pointed at almost everyone in a Rockies uniform, even especially Jim Tracy. Jonathan Herrera was double switched into the game with two outs in the top of the 8th inning, then he was pinch hit for in the bottom half by Jason Giambi, who was then pinch-run for. It would not have been so critical to burn three bench guys in one at bat, but Tracy not double switched in the 7th inning, then had to use his remaining benchman, Wilin Rosario, as a defensive replacement for Eric Young Jr. The bench was barefor pitcher Alex White to pinch hit in the top of the 9th inning, with the bases loaded and no outs, 80% due to that one spot in the order in the 8th inning.

All JJ Putz had to do was throw three strikes out of seven pitches, and a critical out was gift-wrapped. By WPA, the Rockies' chance of winning that game decreased from 53% to 35% in the White flag at-bat. So, no, not quite as simple as just pitching failure, especially when the bullpen has been strong most of the season.

Dexter Fowler

Other than Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Belisle and Jamie Moyer, just about no one is reaching the expectations or hopes we have for them. In large part due to sample sizes, certain players get more criticism early and it follows them in spite of marked improvement. Ironically, one of the better hitters for the Rockies overall this season is Dexter Fowler, who seemingly has a lynchmob constantly following him.

While several want Tyler Colvin to replace Fowler, the case just isn't there. Colvin has more power? No, not really. While Colvin is 3rd on the team in ISO, Fowler is 4th, just five points back. Fowler doesn't get on base enough? Actually, he gets on base 5% more often than Colvin this year. Fowler doesn't get the ball in play enough? He strikes out 7% less than Colvin. You want to play the more productive hitter overall, BABIP be damned? Fine, but Fowler has the better wOBA, OBP and wRC+ even with that 100+ BABIP disparity.

It is odd that with enough blame to go around to nearly everyone in the Rockies' dugout, the most has gone towards a guy currently having the best season of his career. Thanks for that, batting average.

Links

Bees, fan ejection highlight D-backs' odd day - An Arizona fan was ejected for throwing a home run ball back on the field. The Diamondbacks' TV broadcast vowed to get him free tickets to a D-backs game, but really, that rule is familiar to anyone who has been to Coors Field prior to the national anthem. Perhaps the fan was just late, but rules are rules.

Rockies' Jhoulys Chacin regrets pitching through pain during spring training - Jorge de la Rosa did it. Jeff Francis did it. It rarely works to ignore pain, hoping increasing symptoms of a problem will disappear when continuously repeating the action that caused the pain in the first place. It sure is commonplace though.

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AA Tulsa - L 2-6 (24-15, L3, 1st)

Kiel Roling (2008, 6th round) hit a two-run home run in the sixth inning, his seventh on the season, but the Drillers couldn't manage any more offense. #22 PuRP Kent Matthes (2009, 4th round) singled, doubled and stole third base in raising his batting average to .198, while HM PuRP Mike Zuanich (2008, 28th round) saw his average dip to .198 after striking out in all four at-bats. HM PuRP Dan Houston (2008, 7th round) allowed three runs in 6.1 IP, striking out seven in the loss. Michael Marbry (2007, undrafted) put the game out of reach by getting touched up for three runs in the eighth. Jorge de la Rosa is scheduled to make his fourth rehab start tonight at 6:05 MDT.

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High-A Modesto - L 3-5, (20-20, L2, t-3rd, 6.0 GB)

Christian Bergman (2010, 24th round) managed to only go four plus innings last night, allowing four runs on eighth hits. The Nuts managed just four hits on the night, but they still threatened to win late in the game. In the final two innings, six Nuts reached base via three walks, a hit batter and two hits, but Modesto only pushed one run across thanks to four strikeouts. In a two-run game, five Nuts were stranded on the bases in the final two innings. #19 PuRP Corey Dickerson (2010, 8th round) was held hitless for the third time this season and failed to reach base for just the second time. #25 PuRP Cristhian Adames (2008, DR) tripled and scored and Tim Smalling (2011, 15th round) drove in two runs with a walk and groundout. Juan Gonzalez (2006, VZ) is today's scheduled pitcher.

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Rex Brothers entered the eighth inning of a 4-4 tie. Of his first 13 pitches, 12 were balls, with the only strike being a sacrifice bunt. For the mathematically inept, that counts as three four-pitch walks (one intentional). Jim Tracy stuck with the young set-up man in a crucial spot, and Brothers rewarded him by striking out Brandon Belt and Melky Cabrera on seven pitches.

Brothers went ballistic on his way to the dugout, fired up and pissed off like a man with a scorpion in his jock. Less than five minutes later, Marco Scutaro - who entered the game in a double switch with Brothers - yanked a 1-2 fastball from Santiago Casilla over the left-field wall for his first home run in a Rockies uniform. Rafael Betancourt made that count, and the Rockies won a game.

The aforementioned 4-4 tie was an adventure in the making. Angel Pagan misplayed a line drive into a single plus 2-base error for a gimpy Troy Tulowitzki. Had he been healthy, he may have scored on the play. Instead at third, Tim Lincecum pitched around Todd Helton in front of a Michael Cuddyer double and Jordan Pacheco sacrifice fly. Carlos Gonzalez blooped a double and scored on a Tulowitzki single. Cargo also laced a two-out RBI single in the seventh.

Meanwhile, Jeremy Guthrie pitched well in his return to the rotation. He walked four, including the first two of the game, but he nearly doubled his season strikeout total with four. He allowed just one unearned run before being replaced with Josh Outman in the sixth inning.

Outman also pitched in the seventh, walking the first two he faced before Melky Cabrera doubled home two. Matt Belisle inherited the tying runner in scoring position, and Angel Pagan plated Melky with an opposite field single.

In all, the Rockies' pitchers walked 10 batters, yet only two scored.

Comment of the Night

I had forgotten what a W looked like

I was all "Upside down Ms, that’s absurd"

by moorejs99 on May 15, 2012 11:51 PM MDT

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Jeremy Guthrie and Tim Lincecum were Opening Day starters. Their ERAs are both horrible. While Guthrie has been beaten by the home run and inability to strike anyone out, Lincecum has been killed by just getting hit around. The Rockies took advantage of him at Coors Field early and often earlier this season, but don't expect the Rockies' lineup to get the same formula.

Lincecum gave up eight hits in that 17-8 loss - seven on his changeup -- and said it was evident to him that Rockies hitters were sitting on the offering. ("It just happened too quickly. I didn't give myself a chance to think about what was going on.") He's been spooked to throw it as his out pitch ever since.

Somehow, Troy Tulowitzki is back in the lineup after nearly having his kneecap shatter in last night's game.

Get A Job-The Silhouettes-original song-1957 (via AK47bandit)

My dad was in an a capella group in high school with the rest of the popular jocks. They performed this song, and my dad did the surly solo at 2:05, which I am hoping to hear when they re-enact the performance at their 40-year high school reunion in August. I don't think many high schools have an a capella group acting as their starting five on the basketball court anymore, covering popular songs with harmony

The Rockies are losers. Losers of four straight and 9 of 10. The much feared California road trip ends tonight, and Coors Field will be a welcome sight tomorrow, though it is worth remembering Colorado stumbled to a 3-6 homestand in their last stay at home. The tumble finds Colorado with the 3rd worst record in MLB, which is significant considering the Rockies have been in MLB's bottom five in just one season, when they finished in the 3-way tie for 27th in 2005.

This is bad baseball, and the natives are getting restless. Dan O'Dowd and Jim Tracy are targets for fan vitriol, but the Rockies are not going to make personnel changes anytime soon.

"It's been frustrating for everyone involved, for our fans, for the players, for everyone. But I don't sense that we are that point (where there would be changes). That's not how we do business." - Dan O'Dowd

How the Rockies do business is to react on samples exceeding one month. As Colorado had a winning record April 20, less than four weeks ago, the alarms aren't going off yet. With the way the Rockies are playing, it does not matter whether their manager is named Earl Weaver or Jim Tracy or Siri, wins would not be coming. May isn't the time for a front office shake-up either. Any changes to the front office or clubhouse would be largely symbolic to appease the fans right now, and the Rockies aren't about to give in to that pressure.

The Rockies are in a unique position. They cycle between the 2nd- and 4th-most important sports franchise in Denver yet still get fairly consistently strong attendance. With a beautiful stadium in the perfect location, prevalence of pre-1993 fans of other baseball teams, affordable tickets and LoDoMagic^TM, the floor of attendance remains relatively high. After ranking 1st in the NL in attendance through the 90's, attendance dipped along with the bottoming out of the GenR movement, but its steady increase since does not reflect the wide-ranging product on the field. With such a dramatic shift in baseball quality, attendance has been relatively uncorrelated in recent years. We seem to be finding a settling point for baseball attendance in Denver. Why would the Monforts give in to fan pressure after less than four weeks of bad baseball then?

That is not an indictment, as giving in to upset fans can be just as damaging as inaction. Is Bobby Valentine really the better manager for the Red Sox going forward over Terry Francona?

So with the slow trigger on the axe, what would it take? O'Dowd is probably safe to see the build-to-2013 plan come to fruition, barring continued collapse through October. Jim Tracy is most at peril. Colorado has fired only two managers midseason, both in the Dan O'Dowd era. Let's compare:

With comparable to even higher expectations in 2009, Clint Hurdle's team was just about as bad through 34, albeit with a better run differential. To reach the 18-28 mark that doomed Hurdle, the Rockies would need to go just 5-7 in their next 12. It is important to note that Hurdle had no "handshake indefinite extension" going into 2009 though, and Tracy has yet to reach the depth of the season that left Hurdle with a pink slip. We can probably expect two more weeks of horrifying baseball to be required.

Buddy Bell was canned after only 22 games, but he was managing a team headlined by two big free agent acquisitions from the previous year to the worst start in franchise history. (They did rebound to reach 14-20).

I believe the Monforts and Dan O'Dowd really do like Jim Tracy, and he will get a longer leash than most managers, even past ones in Colorado. But that leash is not indefinitely long. If history is any indication, the Rockies need to turn it around in the next two weeks to save Tracy's job.

That leash is longer than most Rockies fans would want this morning, but to be realistic for a moment, in-season managerial changes rarely result in dramatic shift in performance. Of the two managers who steered such turnarounds, one was born in the Herbert Hoover presidency, and the other one is already in the Rockies dugout.

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Christian Friedrich is not the same pitcher he was in AA. That is apparent by anyone who can read a stat line, but also one who evaluates the pitching process. David Oh No, former Purple Row writer, has watched Friedrich from his Tulsa residence for two years:

"Simply put, Friedrich had this type of stuff maybe once in Tulsa, the exhibition against the Rox. Other than that, rarely threw CB in zone. In Tulsa, Friedrich was over-reliant on a FB at 88-91 with little movement. Tried to pound it and got lit up. Now, Stuff looks like the pitcher he showed he was in his draft video. Seen him poor too much to not be skeptical, but stuff is way superior now. He (actually) looks bigger to me now. Much more physical. Always had a good build, has a great one now." - David Oh No

In striking out 10 last night against one walk, Friedrich's box score is awfully sexy.In his first two MLB starts, he has struck out 17 and allowed two earned runs, one on a cheap bloop hit and one on a solo home run.

His performances have been quick and dominant, but what is impressive is not just the results against two poor offenses. It is the process that is so impressive.

Friedrich has commanded a fastball with increased velocity from years' past, mixed in a deep curve ball and had success with a slider and change-up. He has responded to bad luck on the mound with poise and filled up the strike zone. The transformation from a pitcher outside the top ten on the rotation depth chart to what he has accomplished in all of 2012 is stunning.

I have, and it's shocking. RT @PoseidonsFist: @Kevin_Goldstein have you watched any Christian Friedrich v2012?

— Kevin Goldstein (@Kevin_Goldstein) May 15, 2012

The cynic will point to PetCo and AT&T Park, the Padres and Giants offense and of course, SSS. But Andy Parrino and Charlie Culberson did not help Friedrich gain velocity or command. We certainly can be excited about Friedrich's transformation, but that does not mean such excitement requires the duality of proclaiming him ace material.

What Friedrich becomes going forward will be interesting to see. He most certainly has earned at least two more starts. After PetCo Park and AT&T Park, his assignments get progressively more challenging. He is slated for his first Coors Field start Saturday against the Mariners. Then he faces a talented offense in Cincinnati. It will be interesting to see how he fares at Coors Field.

It is obviously too early to proclaim Christian Friedrich the savior of the Rockies' rotation, but his transformation (including stuff, AAA starts, spring training starts) is the Rockies' best storyline in 2012 and deserves to be celebrated. He may never be an ace, but he has given Rockies fans reason to believe he can be a solid-mid-rotation starter.

Who has the best offense in the NL West right now? You might not know the numbers, but checking the standings, you might assume it is the Dodgers. By wRC+ or OPS+, you would be right. Who is next? The Rockies are a safe option, and indeed, their 95 wRC+ is second only to the Dodgers in the division. There is another team with a higher OPS+ than Colorado though...and that is the San Francisco Giants.

While you weren't looking, the Giants' offense has been quietly improved in 2012. Their 96 OPS+ actually ranks 5th in the National League, though their on base woes leave their wRC+ at a more familiar 88, good for 12th. Their .257 batting average is 6th in the NL despite their home park, and their .692 team OPS is above league average. Why is no one noticing this improvement?

The runs still aren't coming. While their 126 tallies are good for 11th in the league, a solid improvement over being dead last in 2011, it is still far behind what their standard rate stats would suggest. Simply, the Giants have not been producing with runners in scoring position. It would be easy to say a bad offense would be expected to be bad with runners in scoring position as well, but because I am insane, I dove deeper.

Without fail, the Giants have been below league average at the plate when the game is most on the line. This comes from an offense that hovers near league average overall, meaning an above average low leverage offense has been shrinking under pressure.

We could spin a narrative to fit this. The lineup is filled with underseasoned youth, minor league free agents, and veterans with inconsistent track records. With the knowledge that runs are already at a premium historically with the Giants offense, maybe there is some whiteknuckling going on. We would see more strikeouts and less controlled at-bats. This can be deduced at least partially from statistics.

I have not watched the Giants offense at work as Giants fans have, but this would not appear to be the case. San Francisco actually owns the National League's lowest strikeout rate. Yet they have actually struck out less frequently with runners in scoring position than without. We would not expect that from an offense that legitimate shrinks under pressure.

Even though their strikeouts increased in Late and Close and High Leverage situations, they are still below the league average. Clearly, strikeouts are not to blame for the difference in their run expectancy due to rate statistics and their actual runs scored.

Ah, yes, BABIP. Clearly, the Giants are getting their share of hits on the season when they put the ball in play, even in late and close and high leverage situations. With runners in scoring position though, they do not. It is possible that their issues are tied to poor contact in those situations, producing TulowitzkiPopUps or weak groundballs. I do not know, and I hope you don't think I would look that deeply into split stats for an opposing team. Come on. I do have a life.

As preposterous as it seems for a Rockies fan to call the Giants unlucky, it would appear that San Francisco has had Lady Luck turn her back on them a bit when a teammate is standing on second and/or third base. There might be some regression here bringing the Giants towards the middle of the pack in terms of runs scored, which would make them a legitimate threat to Los Angeles. That, however, is far from a given, as there may be some downward regression from the near-league average offense Bruce Bochy has managed to trot out there in 2012.

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AA Tulsa - W 6-5, (23-12, 1st)

It can be a real treat for fans at minor league parks to see an eight-figure big-leaguer on a rehab assignment, so it was to be expected that Saturday's game would be a memorable one in Tulsa. It indeed proved so, but no thanks to a rehabbing Jorge de la Rosa. The left-hander allowed five hits in the first inning, three for extra bases, to put the Drillers' in a 4-0 hole. He then left with forearm tightness, which will surely delay his return to the big leagues a week. Then again, it may explain his issues against AA hitters, and the injury doesn't seem too bad. Now in three rehab assignments, de la Rosa has left early as a precaution due to injury twice, but neither time was it related to his rehabbing elbow.

The bullpen really did their job, as Zach Simons (2012, MiLB FA), Michael Marbry (2007, undrafted) and Coty Woods (2009, 33rd round) combined to pick up 8 innings, allowed just 1 unearned run, made possible by Nolan Arenado's 3rd error of the year. That run pushed the deficit to 5-0 in the 7th, but the Drillers then fought back. Tim Torres (2012, MiLB FA) doubled and scored in the 7th, then drove in a run with a walk to cut the lead to 3 in the 8th. Doubles by #9 PuRP Josh Rutledge (2010, 3rd round) and #26 PuRP Ben Paulsen (2009, 3rd round) tied the game in the 9th, and with Tim Torres batting, Paulsen scored on a walk-off wild pitch, polishing off a 4-run 9th.

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AAA Colorado Springs - W 8-3, (18-18, t-1st)

The Sky Sox scored in only two innings, bookending 7 zeroes with 4-run frames in the first and ninth innings. Most of the damage came on two pitches, as Andrew Brown (2012, waivers), who doubled later in the game, unloaded a grand slam in the top of the first inning, and Wilkin Castillo (2012, MiLB FA) followed an RBI triple by #20 PuRP Tommy Field (2008, 24th round) with a 3-run bomb in the ninth.

Cory Riordan (2007, 6th round) was in the bullpen in AA Tulsa due to the deep rotation, but with the movement in the Sky Sox' rotation, Riordan was given a start. It was his first start of 2012, first appearance with Colorado Springs on the year, just the second of his career. He did well under the circumstances despite early shakes. Three singles and two run-scoring outs cut the Sky Sox' early lead in half, but after a leadoff single in the second, Riordan turned nine consecutive Cardinals away before reaching his pitch count. Another pitcher making his 2012 Sky Sox debut, Leuris Gomez (2008, DR), got the win thanks to two strong innings in relief of Riordan.

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Christian Friedrich was incredibly impressive Wednesday in his major league debut. In the 36 hours since he left the mound, fans, analysts and even the Rockies internally have been trying to parse together what to make from it. It was one start against a poor offense in a pitcher's paradise, but it was one very impressive start indeed.

In fact, he became one of just eight pitchers in Rockies history to win his MLB debut as a starter. Ironically, three of those eight came in the last 12 months by pitchers in the current rotation.

The game score his start produced was the fifth best by a Rockies starter in his debut, ever.

What does it mean? You might be surprised to learn that it means almost nothing, but that it is impressive nonetheless.

Friedrich is John Sickels' prospect of the day at Minor League Ball. He had this to say:

With better health, he's back up into the 90s now, topping out at 94 MPH on Wednesday and averaging 92. He has two breaking pitches, a curve and a slider, and both offerings appear sharper this year. Better velocity separation with the revived fastball helps, but his secondary pitches just look better in general. He also has a solid changeup. His command and control improved this spring after wobbling during his tenure at Tulsa.

Friedrich's successes this spring don't completely erase past concerns, but he looks a lot more like the confident, talented pitcher the Rockies drafted in 2008 than the guy who stumbled through Double-A.

I've compiled notable MLB debuts as starters - the eight winners plus top prospects and names. Names likeUbaldo Jimenez, Jhoulys Chacin, Cory Vance, John Burke, and Aaron Cook were not included, as their debuts came in relief.

Off the bat, one should notice the very poor showing of Jeff Francis, the best Rockies-drafted starter of the last decade. Compare to the best showing, Mark Brownson, who used a glorious curveball to torment the Astros. His career lasted just 11 games, thanks to a 6.94 ERA, 9.70 at Coors Field.

Bryan Rekar is a different kind of example. His debut was decent enough, but after three starts, he had a 3.09 ERA and had averaged 7.2 IP per start. He ended up going 7-10 with a 5.62 ERA in three years with the Rockies before being taken by the Devils Rays in the expansion draft. He finished his career at age 30 with a 5.62 ERA.

So of course, Friedrich's debut guarantees him nothing as far as his career goes. You knew that already, but it isn't as if this is the most worthless warning out there.

Who Gets the Short Straw?

It might guarantee him something though - a shot at another start. A chance to stick. As Troy Renck wrote, the Rockies suddenly have usable depth and options in the rotation. Another adjective - quality - remains to be seen. However, after a strong rehab start with Modesto, Jeremy Guthrie is ready to re-join the rotation next Tuesday in San Francisco. There will not be a six man rotation, so someone has to go to AAA.

With the worst rotation in the National League, it would be tough to demote a starter who is pitching well, which counts Friedrich and Alex White after their 2012 debuts. Jeremy Guthrie will stay - he is making too much money, has no options, and has too much of a quality MLB track record not to. Jamie Moyer has the lowest ERA on the staff. Drew Pomeranz is the future and is arguably the best overall performer on staff. Juan Nicasio has been uneven, but he has also been dominant in half of his starts.

What seems likely is to make one turn with a 6-man rotation, running Moyer, Nicasio and Pomeranz against the Dodgers, White and Guthrie in San Francisco, then Friedrich to open the homestand against Arizona and evaluate his performance at Coors Field. At that time, a decision could be made.

Off-topic
Mobile off-topic

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High-A Modesto - L 9-10 (16-18, L2, 4th, 6.0 GB)

#27 PuRP Josh Slaats (2010, 5th round) didn't turn in a #winning performance last night, lasting just 14 batters due to retiring only 4 of them. He allowed eight San Jose Giants hits, four for doubles, a walk and a hit batter in 1.1 IP to raise his ERA in Modesto to 8.10. His struggles put Modesto in an 8-2 hole in the top of the second inning, but the Nuts fought back. Brett Tanos (2010, 10th round) hit a 3-run double to highlight a 5-run second inning that brought the game to 8-7.

Thanks to the work of Craig Bennigson (2008, 9th round) and Kraig Sitton (2010, 7th round), that is how the game would stay from the 3rd through 7th innings. Chad Rose (2008, 16th round) walked two ahead of an RBI single in the eighth, but #15 PuRP Rafael Ortega (2008, VZ) hit a monumental 2-run, game-tying home run in the eighth inning. It was the first time the game had been tied since the third batter of the game. A couple singles off Rose in the ninth gave the Giants the lead again, and the middle of the order went down in order in the bottom of the ninth. Tanos had two doubles and a single for the game, and Ortega reached base three times as well.

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AAA Colorado Springs - L 2-6 (16-17, L1, 2nd, 0.5 GB)

Guillermo Moscoso (2012, trade) isn't always terrible. He turned in a dominant start against the Brewers' AAA squad, tossing six shutout innings, striking out six and allowing just two baserunners. It might not have even been his best start. Hernan Irribarren (2012, MiLB FA), who had 2 of the Sky Sox 5 hits and both RBIs, roped a 2-run double in the 7th inning to give the Sky Sox a short lead. That didn't last despite manager Stu Cole turning to two typically reliable relievers.

Mike Ekstrom (2012, MiLB FA) entered the game with an 18.1 inning scoreless streak to start the season. He worked a flawless 7th inning, then allowed three consecutive singles to start the eighth. Dustin Molleken (2011, MiLB FA) entered and allowed a bunt single to re-load the bases. He then induced two flyouts before being dinged on the go-ahead RBI single and a crippling 3-run homer with two outs.

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AA Tulsa - Off Day (21-11, W1, 1st)

The Drillers had the day off after finishing a road series at Northwest Arkansas. They open a home series tonight at 6:05 MDT against the Arkansas Travelers with HM PuRP Dan Houston (2008, 7th round) on the mound.

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Low-A Asheville - Off Day (19-13, L1, 3rd, 3.0 GB)

The Tourists had an off day. They traveled to Rome, Georgia to open a series against the 6-25 Braves this morning at 8:30 MDT. Two of Rome's six wins came against Asheville in mid-April, so revenge is due. One of the starters who lost to the Braves was Vianney Mayo (2007, VZ), who gets today's start.

After losing Tuesday night for the fifth game in a row, the 2012 season is looking more and more like a bridge to the future. That shifts the ultimate goal from winning to the identification of key young players and the development of those players. In that vein, tonight's game at Petco Park could be seen as a success.

Alex White was brutal in 2011 with Colorado, but his 2012 debut was quite good. In fact, his 57 game score comes in as the 7th best starting pitching performance of the Rockies' first 29 games. Juan Nicasio (April 8, 66), Jeremy Guthrie (April 22, 66), Drew Pomeranz (May 2, 63 and April 21, 58), Jhoulys Chacin (April 20, 62) and Jamie Moyer (April 17, 60) were better.

White struck out six, allowed six hits and had a 10:4 GO/AO ratio. He allowed two runs, both thanks to Will Venable slashing extra base hits down the left field line. He tripled in the first and scored on a Yonder Alonso single, the doubled home Jason Bartlett in the fifth, one of two Padres to reach via the walk off White.

The Rockies offense continues to have issues in California following long homestands. Jordan Pacheco doubled off Cameron Maybin's glove in the first inning and scored on a Todd Helton single, which ended up being Colorado's only run. They threatened in further in the first, but Ramon Hernandez fouled out with the bases loaded. Their sixth inning was promising as well, with a walk, lineout-double-play, line-drive-single, walk and a strikeout yielding nothing.

It was a bad game once again. And though it was against the Padres at Petco Park, at least the Rockies have something to build off of with Alex White.

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Go mountain range. Destroy the Fathers as the park for pets.

Jeff Suppan is 37 and has 16 complete games in his career. Alex White is 23 and has allowed 15 home runs in his career. Suppan has more career innings pitched in the playoffs (57.0) than White has in his career (51.1). So you get it. Suppan is old. White is young. Both are reasons not to trust a pitcher.

This is Suppan's second start of the season, and second start since 2010. He tossed five shutout innings against the Brewers at Petco last week.

An overflow will be posted at 9:30 MDT.