
Andy Braves Fan
Nov 21, 2008 May 18, 2012 16 2713
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The Braves don't value on-base percentage as much as other teams, one NL official told Olney (Pence has a .354 OBP).
Also read this gem the other day in a KLAWchat:
Jason (Atlanta)
KLAW, Fredi Gonzales admitted the other day that he had no idea of the OBA of Schafer, Mclouth and Heyward and that he "thought" Schafer's was highest. How can a GM let something like this pass in a day and age when EVERY team employs people to apply advanced statistical analysis?
Klaw
(2:57 PM)Well, the GM is obviously fine with this. I wouldn't be if I were an Atlanta fan, but the way that lineup is set and the way the roster is used implies that Wren is completely OK with Fredi's (mis)management.
--Frustrating.
Hilarious video about FIP. Must watch.
Brian McCann: Most Underrated Catcher in History?
Dave Gershman's first post on Beyond the Box Score is a hit. Of course, all of us Braves fans already knew this.
There is a belief Lee is heading to the Phillies, according to Jack Curry of the YES Network (on Twitter). Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of SI.com says the Phils "look like a very strong candidate to win Lee's services" (Twitter link).
UPDATE
The Yankees are now "extremely negative" about landing Lee and they believe he is leaning toward the Phillies' offer, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter).
Looks like the Phillies just went from mystery long-shot to potential front-runners. This is unpleasant. I am not amused.
Amazin' Avenue primer on Sabermetrics (specifically Average vs. betters stats)
I know it is probably sinful to point to the blog of a rival team, but this primer on batting average should be excellent reading for those of you (and you know who you are) who want to know what the heck the rest of us are talking about. It lays out in pretty plain language why batting average is an inferior stat and why there are better methods. I think it is a fantastic idea by Eric Simon over at Amazin' Avenue. Perhaps we could do similar posts.
My Mea Culpa; Martin Prado
Many of you folks here on TC know me as I have now been a regular here for a couple of years. I do quite enjoy this blog and conversing with all of you fellow Braves fans. I was thus honored last offseason to have been chosen by Gondee to produce a season preview for the Braves new full-time second baseman Martin Prado. I have since gone back to what I wrote to review my preview. You can see my preview here:
http://www.talkingchop.com/2010/2/6/1298614/martin-prado-atlanta-braves-2010
At first glance I was rather proud of my work. I felt my analysis was objective and fair, and indeed proved to be mostly accurate. I then read the first sentence of my last paragraph which read as follows:
"Prado does not need to carry the Braves on his shoulders to have a successful season, and he probably doesn't have the ability to do so anyway."
Ah, how foolish I was. On a Braves team that continually struggled with bouts of offensive ineptitude, it always seemed to be the steady bat of Martin Prado that kept the Braves going. Martin proved that he did indeed have the ability to carry the Braves on his shoulders during periods when the team needed him the most. The stability he provided at the top of the Braves lineup sometimes felt like the only offense the Braves had. His .352 wOBA and 3.9 WAR were indeed higher marks than I had imagined him to reach this season.
Therefore I feel it important to own up to this egregious error and apologize, first to my fellow TCers for leading them to believe that Martin was less than the player that he is. And of course, I must apologize to Martin Prado for doubting his talents.
Baseball today podcast: Nate McLouth is one of the worst in baseball
Can be downloaded on your IPod or you can listen for free on your site...
ESPN researcher Mark Simon is on, and he mentions as prompted by a question that McLouth is by WAR and other stats is one of the WORST players in baseball right now. He compares him to Eric Byrnes.
Can we agree that we need a new OFer?
Keith Law's updated top 25 prospects
Includes Teheran (11th) and Vizcaino (19th). Delgado gets mentioned at the bottom. And if you are wondering, Teheran is ranked behind Martin Perez, Aroldis Chapman, Jeremy Hellickson, and Casey Kelly among pitchers. So, as good as he is, he isn't the greatest pitching prospect in baseball...yet.
UPDATE: This is insider only, sorry that I didn't mention that before if you weren't able to get to the link. Selected quotes below.
11. Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta. A big fastball, a plus change and an improved breaking ball have helped him dominate at two levels this year -- and it's not just being in pitcher-friendly Myrtle Beach. Six of the nine Colombians to reach the big leagues came from Cartagena -- as does Teheran. I'm still waiting for our first prospect from Macondo. Previous ranking: No. 63
19. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Atlanta. He's producing outstanding numbers so far with a plus fastball/above-average curve and a very low-effort delivery. Previous ranking: No. 43
and under the "Why Not Section"
Randall Delgado? Total package doesn't have the big upside of Teheran, and he's not as polished as Vizcaino
I'm on Baseball Today
Just wanted to jump on here and brag that my email question was deemed worthy enough to be read on a Baseball Today podcast by the guru Mark Simon today. The question wasn't Braves related, but I was still pleased that my question made the show.
The podcast is Braves relevant because at the beginning of the podcast they briefly discuss the struggles of Kawakami. You all should give it a listen. If you don't have an i-pod, you can listen to it off off of espn.com/mlb. It is on the left side of the page and is free to listen to, and no insider subscription required.
Francoeur's new best friend -UPDATED
Looks like Frenchy has found a new buddy in David Wright:
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/after_hrs_fall_off_david_adds_muscle_B1KjlFv5kfZdFbWqz1ANKN
Key quote from the article:
"“Seeing how a player bounces back from that adversity,” Jeff Francouer said yesterday, “really tells you about a person. David has really worked hard. He looks in great shape.'"
Wonder what he thinks that it says about him?
From the rest of the article you gather that Frenchy is a new leader in the Mets clubhouse. Let's see how that works for them. Certainly did wonders for us... right, wonders.
UPDATE-
Per Rob Neyer's Chat:
Tarek (NYC)Francouer is giving D.Wright hitting tips? That can't be good for met fans!
Rob Neyer (12:57 PM)Hey, Wright's always been curious about how to take very few walks. Some things just don't come easy for him.
Time to Commit
No, not the the Braves in general. If you read this blog, you are probably pretty committed. I am talking about something that needs to happen. Something that should have happened twice already...
Why hasn't Brian McCann started an All Star game? I mean, we are talking about a guy who is unquestionably the best catcher in the NL. He plays for the Braves. You may have heard of him.
And the great part is, we the fans get to vote for him to play in the All Star Game every year. For the past 3 years, we have helped vote him in...
But it isn't enough. McCann has not gotten his due. He deserves to start an All Star Game. By all rights, he should have started at least the past 2 years.
So what I am looking for is a commitment, from ALL Talking Chop readers. Right now. In the offseason. Vote for Brian McCann. If he is the top catcher vote-getter, he gets to start. He is the best catcher, so he should be the top vote getter. We need to get him there. Everybody gets 25 votes, but that is per email address. Create another email account. Vote for him 50 -100 times. Whatever it takes. I'm sick of seeing him sit on the bench at the All Star game.
This is a call to arms. Reveille is playing full blast. Get it done.
Some hotstove links to read and ponder
JC Bradbury on hot stove myths:
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/11/hot-stove-myths/
Tim Dierkes of MLBTR lists his top 50 free agents and where he thinks they will go:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/2010-top-50-free-agents.html
Dierkes' offseason outlook for the Braves;
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/10/offseason-outlook-atlanta-braves.html
Ken Davidoff's rankings of the best GM's in baseball
Joe Posnanski on the Hall of Fame:
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/08/hall-of-fame-thoughts/#more-2807
Joe Posnanski on the Yankees Payroll:
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/05/the-yankees-payroll/
Tim Lincecum a social pioneer?
Thought you guys and gals might be interested.
Neither Buyers Nor Sellers: the Atlanta Braves 2009 Midseason
It seems that the discussion amongst Braves fans has become geared towards buying or selling before the looming trade deadline. This is to be expected; the Braves are "on the bubble" in terms of their chances at playing baseball in October this season.
I would like to advocate a different idea: just stay put. That is, be neither buyers nor sellers. Sure, Frank Wren can and should always keep the phone lines open, but now does not seem to be the time for big movement. The reasons are numerous, and I would like to discuss them here.
First, the market is rather bare. This season has turned into one of the more interesting seasons contention-wise in a while. There are really very few teams that can be considered completely out of contention *(listed here: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/playoff-odds-update.html). This has left the midseason trade market generally thin according to most analysts. It is very simply difficult to make any major trades. Therefore, while Javy Vazquez' value may be at an all time peak, getting the value the Braves would demand might be rather difficult. This is especially true when one factors in the Braves payroll restrictions where obtaining a superstar would be well out of the Braves price range unless payroll is cleared. In essence, in order to become buyers, the Braves first must be sellers. Meanwhile, many teams are not interested in opening up their farm systems to take on payroll (the same as the Braves). Thus selling for prospects is getting increasingly difficult.
Second, the Braves, as previously pointed out, are not really out of the NL East. The division is at a point of weakness, and the while the Braves have yet to put together a good streak, the pieces seem to be starting to fall into place. The All Star Break may be the perfect time to get the team rested and healthy for a 2nd half run. Now, that could all change tomorrow if the Phillies decide to pony up the goods to get Doc Halladay, but I digress...
Finally, whether or not the Braves make that second half run, there is always the 2010 offseason. The advantage there is that many more teams will be looking to make deals. Trading guys like Vazquez for equal value may be easier, and replacing Vazquez will be easier as well. Free agents will be there to fill in gaps. For a 2010 free agent list, look here: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/2010-mlb-free-a.html. Many will point to guys like Soriano and Gonzalez and think that the Braves have to sell now. However, letting them finish their time in Atlanta and letting them go to free agency isn't so bad. It would leave the Braves in position to get some really good draft picks. For a preview of the 2010 MLB Draft, check out Keith Law's analysis here: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2009/insider/news/story?id=4253106. You may note that almost in most aspects, the draft class is better than 2009. It may be a really good draft for the Braves to get some higher draft picks from.
All in all, unless a really good deal comes along, Frank Wren has put a decent team together. Meanwhile the entire NL East, usually one of baseball's stronger divisions, has floundered. It's anybody's game. The midseason trade market leaves the Braves in a position where it will difficult to get the full value from their potentially trade-able players. In order to become buyers, the Braves have to clear payroll, and many teams don't want to take on payroll and don't want to trade their valued prospects. The offseason holds more hope for the Braves when more teams will be willing to make moves, and thus the Braves may be able to get more value for their surplusses. It also opens up the free-agent market where the Braves may be able to find some good deals to fill in gaps.
Thoughts?
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The Sticky Room for Couch GM's
I saw this was mentioned by someone, but nobody actually did it. I created this fanpost for all those trade thoughts, free agent speculations, etc. for the couch GM's. In other words, this FanPost is for rosterbation. Feel free to post all of your secret trade desires here for all to see. Let you flag fly, if you will... there is no need to create any new posts, no matter how good your idea might be.
Just try not to get anything on the carpet.
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A-Fraud and Chipper
Now that it has come out that A-Rod did indeed use PEDs, or at least apparently used them, does anybody else remember these comments from Chipper:
"I think it will follow him," Jones said. "There's going to be the questions because his name's been brought up. If I had to pose a guess on A-Rod, I would say no. But I don't know. He's going to have to answer the questions. And that goes for everybody that approaches the number. It's just so farfetched, the numbers that those guys are putting up. And a lot of it comes from the era that they're playing in."
This quote was from the Lexington Dispatch shortly after A-Rod hit his 500th home run. As I recall, Chipper took a lot of heat from various sportswriters around the country for this comment.
I wonder how many of those sportswriters will be apologizing for their irresponsible reporting of what Chipper said (I'm looking at you Jay Mariotti).
Why the Braves should sign Manny
Sound crazy? I thought so myself...
But here is the problem. The Braves can't get pitching. Their best bet right now is to get Kawakami to establish a presence in Japan. Bud Derek Lowe, seriously? Lets be honest, he is a workhorse and a very good pitcher, but he won't be an ace for the next 4 years.
The Braves were mediocre everywhere last season. Hitting and pitching. The Braves need a good right handed bat, a cleanup hitter that can protect Chipper. Can you name a better right handed bat than Manny Ramirez? It isn't like he would be a long-term guy, 3 years tops. Call me crazy (Smoltz left, so you may be right), but if you want to put people in the seats and have a fun season, Manny might just be the best option out there.
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