SB Nation Blog: AndyB83

Perez gets called up...

AndyB83 — Fri, 16 May 2008 19:09:18 -0000

For those Ankiel lovers. New promo for the Cards this season.

AndyB83 — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 04:06:11 -0000

Rotation Possibilities

AndyB83 — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 00:37:23 -0000

This write-up started as a comment to one of the threads today but quickly got out of hand length-wise. Basically, I was working out my own reaction to houstoncardinal's break down of Duncan and Ankiel's trade value. Also, I wanted to consider how the team would look different in 2008 and 2009 based on whether they obtained a (younger) starting pitcher through trade or waved the white flag on available free agents.

So we've got Carpenter, Looper, Pineiro, Mulder, Wainwright, Reyes, and Thompson right now for starting pitchers. In my mind, anything Carpenter does in 2008 is a blessing... so throw him out. I'd rather be conservative than think that he's going to provide cy-young caliber pitching upon his return. Our 2008 rotation at the moment (in the mind of TLR & DD; I'd definitely pencil in Reyes over Thompson):

Wainwright
Looper
Pineiro
Mulder
Thompson/Reyes

But let's look one more year down the road... Carpenter returns (presumably...) and at least two contracts are up in Looper and Mulder (whew)... so that leaves us with these guys for 2009:

Carpenter
Wainwright
Pineiro
Reyes
Thompson

Now, this is assuming that Mo (as he's so endearingly been called by the STL media) quits making moves... which does not appear likely following the shipment of one Jim Edmonds to San Diego. He's going to add a pitcher somewhere. Why do I think so? Well, we just learned that Reyes has one more option left on his contract which means he's likely to spend some time down in Memphis. And after posting a 2.95 ERA in 55 innings pitched during his rookie season of 2005, Thompson spent time in Memphis during each of the 2006 and 2007 seasons. So it appears that there's a short leash on him as well. Assuming that TLR and DD aren't willing to pencil either Thompson or Reyes into the back end of the rotation, Mo's going to have to bring another guy this year.

Would it be better to throw a multi-year deal at one of the sub-par FA pitchers available or would it pay more dividends to swing a deal with the little bait that the Cards have in Duncan or Ankiel? Again, I'm thinking ahead here... 2009 being most important while hoping to make the 2008 team somewhat competitive as well. Let's walk through this.

Which starting pitchers are left at the moment? Here's a list. Not a whole lot there. There's some mediocre pitchers trying to capitalize on this year's weak FA class while hoping to get some overvalued multi-year deals. These are guys like Silva and Lohse. Then there's players who might be willing to take a one-year deal as an opportunity to boost their value come 2009. These are guys like Colon and Weaver. Then there's some other names that seem to have been linked to the Cards at one time or another... Fogg, Benson, Armas Jr., and Clement. And then there's the recently touted Josh Towers.Lets' take a look at these guys. For the time being, I'm going to use 2008 predictions from Bill James that are listed over at Fan Graphs. If there's better historical stats or future predictions to use here, please let me know. I checked on ZIPS but they weren't yet available for every player.

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
Silva	199	4.61	1.38	3.71	1.58
Lohse	188	4.69	1.43	5.55	2.78
Colon	70	4.24	1.36	2.32	2.83
Weaver	185	4.72	1.38	5.74	2.34
Fogg	181	5.02	1.48	4.77	3.03
Benson	130	4.43	1.38	5.33	2.98
Armas Jr.	120	4.95	1.48	6.45	4.13
Clement	95	4.17	1.39	7.77	4.07
Towers	81	5.11	1.41	5.22	1.56

There you have it. A bunch of similarly league average pitchers. Nothing that the guys we already have on board couldn't do IMHO. For comparison's sake, take a look at the other two guys who that rotation slot will presumably go to.

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
Thompson	109	4.62	1.38	4.54	2.64
Reyes	109	3.88	1.26	7.68	2.89

On second thought, we might have an upgrade available in Anthony Reyes. If only he could get out of the dog house. As a result, I'm not convinced that signing any of these guys is necessary to make the 2008 Cardinals more competitive than they already are... let alone the 2009 Cardinals when Carp has a completely rehabilitated throwing arm. What about the names that we've heard as potential trading chips thus far this winter? Of all the rumored Giants, I'm leaving out Lincecum because it just ain't likely. If he's available, someone else is going to have a better offer. Same for Bedard because we ain't sending Rasmus anywhere (everyone knock on wood now). Again, we're using 2008 Bill James projections.

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
Cain	205	3.42	1.26	8.25	3.91
Sanchez	58	3.57	1.34	10.24	4.50
Lowry	194	4.13	1.41	5.98	3.80
E. Santana	160	4.39	1.38	6.98	3.21
Capuano	145	4.41	1.37	7.32	2.98

That's more like it. Seems that pursuing a trade (assuming Duncan or Ankiel and some throw-ins would get the deal done) offers us the best chance at fortifying a very ho-hum starting rotation in not only 2008, but 2009 and beyond. Most, if not all, of these guys are younger than their FA counterparts. The benefits are obvious: we'd have them under control for more years (assuming we are looking for a one year bargain) and they have more upside.

Our 2008 and 2009 Rotations:

2008

Wainwright

Looper

Pineiro

Mulder

Cain/Lowry/Santana

2009

Carpenter

Wainwright

Pineiro

Cain/Lowry/Santana

2009 Free Agent

Who are the 2009 Free Agent starting pitchers? Well, there's Johan Santana, Ben Sheets, and C.C. Sabathia. Also, there's other less desirable names such as Oliver Perez, Randy Wolf, Carl Pavano, Derek Lowe, and John Garland. And remember: A.J. Burnett may opt out of his current deal. Of course, several of these player's fates will likely be determined before they ever hit free agency... but the names look better than Silva or Lohse.

It should also be noted that there is quite a bit of money slated to come off of the books for the Cards after the 2008 season. No more Looper, Juancion, or Izzy. That extra money could conceivably be put towards acquiring a solid outfielder. Using the same list as linked to above, it appears guys like Abreu, Burrell, and Adam Dunn would be available. Therefore, the loss of production from Duncan or Ankiel could soon be replaced with the money that will become available after this season. And we could pull a one-year corner outfielder out of the current FA class in the mean time. It seems that 2009 is what the organization is looking towards anyways.

Juancion and Plate Discipline...?

AndyB83 — Sat, 09 Jun 2007 20:03:26 -0000

I want to preface this post by acknowledging that my days of delving into the vast abyss of numbers in baseball are just beginning. If you know of any available data that is relevant to this topic or of easier ways to obtain the data that I am working with (hand counted out everything from Gameday), I would appreciate those links.

Ever since June 1, when Juan Encarnacion opened the flood gates in the ninth inning of a 1-1 game against the Astros when he hit a HR to left-center field, I've taken notice of a seemingly altered approach at the plate. If you look closely at this at-bat, you'll see that he started out with a swinging strike and a foul ball. Juan quickly digs himself an 0-2 count... nothing new, right? But then something happens... and somehow... he lays off of three straight pitches low and away. Now, if you are like me... you've often been frustrated with Juan's propensity for swinging through pitches hitting that location. Chad Qualls knew what he was doing in this AB and I'd be he was as perplexed as the rest of us when the batter didn't bite this time. Rather, Encarnacion lived to see another pitch. Not wanting to put the go ahead runner on base to start off the top-half of the 9th in a tied game, Qualls had an unexpected challenge. The next pitch was a fastball in the middle of the plate and the beginning of a seven-run ninth inning was born. Where the hell did this patience and discipline come from? I suddenly had a newfound interest when Juancion stepped up to the plate. What if he was able to institute this same principle each time he entered the box? There will probably be a few digressions, but this post focuses mostly on the approach that opposing pitchers take when Juancion steps up to the plate and whether or not he has been trying something new at the plate.

Miles/Kennedy UZR Rating

AndyB83 — Mon, 04 Jun 2007 18:39:38 -0000

Adam Kennedy has become my favorite player to hate so far this year. However, I genuinely hope that changes being that we have him on the books for two more seasons. Neither his offense nor his defense have been particularly impressive to me. It is extremely hard to believe that he has actually saved this team one run with his defense. There have been multiple times where I've rolled my eyes following an Adam Kennedy defensive opportunity.

Even more surprising to me is that Aaron Miles' defense has cost the birds four runs. I generally feel pretty confident when a ball is hit in Miles direction and it seems that (more often than not) the guy typically gets the job done.

Personally, I feel best about the Cards' overall lineup on days when Eckstein takes SS and Miles fills in at 2B. Does anyone else share the same sentiments? Perhaps this objective data gives me reason to re-evaluate my subjective opinion. Or maybe it is that Miles rating is tarnished by his frequent out-of-position SS play recently. Is there a place to get just Miles' 2B rating? Also, have other defensive rating systems been released at this point in the season? I would be interested to see if this trend is consistent across rating systems.

Also, I would be interested to hear anyone else's subjective opinions concerning Miles versus Kennedy.

Quick Thought About the Winds on Jupiter...

AndyB83 — Wed, 28 Mar 2007 14:36:09 -0000

We all know the story by now: The Cards' are struggling with the bats but the pitchers look great.

Could it be that the wind in Jupiter is just as responsible for the Pitchers' low ERA as it is for the Hitters' low AVG & SLG?

Just a thought. But it seems to have some credibility. I guess one way to tell would be to look at our starting pitchers' GB/FB ratio but I'm not sure where to find that information for Spring Training. The assumption here is that flyballs would have more likelihood to travel further for extra base hits (more doubles, homeruns, etc.) while ground balls would be largely unaffected by the winds.

Had the Cards' pitchers been pitching in Arizona (or St. Louis), would we all be as content with their numbers?

Trip to Busch III

AndyB83 — Sat, 27 Jan 2007 18:25:57 -0000

Thank you, Albert Pujols.

As I sat in section 456, row 6, seat 5 with my nephew inbetween my father and me, the outcome of the Cardinals/Rockies game appeared bleak. The team with the birds on the bat just seemed a little out of wack. All was well when Chris Carpenter struck out the first batter, Chris Sullivan, on three pitches. The 40,000 plus fans thought they were in for another gem by our National League Cy Young-er. Although Carp managed to work ahead in the count for most of the night, he uncharacteristically kept losing his batters and his K's quickly turned into base on balls. Somehow, probably to the mere testament of his excellence, Carp labored his way into the seventh inning while only surrendering 1 run (which was unearned). One had the sense that the game was about to fall apart at any given moment and this was evident when Aaron Miles failed to make the turn on a potential double-play ball shorthopped into Scott Rolen's backhand. Furthermore, the umpire neglected to call the man out on the force at second. Even though the umpire had an admittingly better vantage point than me (I was sitting damn near the top of Busch III), I disagree with his call. Carpenter, as he so often does, bared down and got a ground ball up the middle to get the boys out of the inning with no harm done, but Eckstein booted the ball and the Rockies tied the game with a run. The defense is supposed to bail their pitcher out in that situation. Eckstein usually does. Like I said, the Cardinals looked all out of wack. Yadier Molina, my favorite player mind you, even committed an error. As amazing as the guy's arm is, he sometimes attempts to make plays that he shouldn't, and on this night his attempt backfired. As he tried to get the force-out at second base on a lame sacrifice bunt attempt, he threw the ball into center field. We can forgive Yadi for this minor blunder as long as he keeps making plays that he never should. Even though he should not have made the attempt to get the guy at second, he normally would have made the play. He is competive and has tremendous faith in his arm. I like that, so I can swallow a few mistakes that he will make every now and then. So, there we have it, three errors for the home team. Yeah, this was just a game in early-May that in the grand scheme of a 162-game season means very little. Unfortunately, to me it meant more.

It was my nephew's first baseball game ever. Now, I have to tell you a little about my nephew. Baseball is something that he became interested in on his own. When I realized this, I began taking him into the backyard and teaching him the basics of hitting, throwing, and catching. The kid has talent. He's a natural switch hitter for God sakes, and he's only 6 years old. He should be playing baseball this summer, but his age requires him to play in another year of tee-ball. He does not want to play tee-ball because he does not need any stinkin' tee. He is used to having me pitch to him. Now, I have to be honest, he needs a little more work on catching, but almost anyone can catch. The catching will come in time.

Now, here he is at his first baseball game ever and the St. Louis Cardinals are letting him down. Sitting through a nine inning game is asking a lot of most six-year olds, but my nephew behaved perfectly. He just soaked in the atmosphere and asked questions when he did not understand something (you have to know how much I loved having the opportunity to explain the game to him). Long story short, my nephew deserved a Cardinals' win. Of course, he will not remember the specifics of the game, but he will remember sitting between his uncle and grandpa during his first ever professional baseball game. A win would have sealed the deal on an already perfect evening, but I could already taste the bitter-sweet aftertaste of a Cardinals' loss witnessed in person. Here we were in the bottom of the eighth inning and the Rockies send Jose Mesa out to the mound. This guy is somewhat of a beast of a man, but he has been pitching way over his potential as evidence by past statistics. The table was set. The Cardinals were due for an offensive explosion and Jose Mesa was due for a winning implosion. Eckstein smashed a pitch between the Rockies' third baseman and shortstop for a single which made him the tying run on first base. Next, TLR pinch-hit Juan Encarnacion (the man with incredible little-league plate discipline) for John Rodriguez. My skepticism soon vanished when Juancion lasered a pitch up the middle that either hit off of the pitching rubber or Mesa himself and shot straight up in the air for just long enough to allow Eckstein and Juancion to step safely on second and first base safely. My seats were too far up and it happened to quickly to tell what the ball actually hit.

Now he had done it. Mesa put the first two men on base in front of you-know-who. Albert Pujols approaches the batter's box while eyeing his bat to determine if there is any unscuffed area unmarked by one of his previous sixteen homers on the season. Earlier in the game, my nephew leaned over and said, "I have never seen a homerun before." What a shame. Don't you think, Albert? With this comment in mind, my father and I lean over to my nephew and direct his attention to the man with the stick in his hand (and not Jim Edmonds who's waiting on deck). Our words were something to this effect: "You watch the man with the bat in his hand because he very well could hit you your first homerun." The count quickly ran full (3-2) after Pujols fouled a couple of towering fly-balls straight behind home plate and over the netting. I start to think, "Can he really do it again? Is he really going to bail the Cardinals out of another loss?" Soon thereafter, I realize that this is no mere mortal and I just wait. I wait for him to put the perfect stamp on an already great evening. Just then, Albert absolutely hammered a pitch that everyone immediately knew had a chance to leave the park. 40,000 plus fans stood to their feet, and this fan was waving his arms while issuing orders to the baseball in midflight (as if it needed any coaxing from me). As the ball fell into the opposing bullpen in left-center field, I reached down and picked up my nephew to let him revel in his first-ever witnessed home run. The fans cheered, the fireworks popped, and the vendors stood momentarily still as they so often have before. Someday, my nephew will take his own children to Busch III and his eyes will gaze upon a statue in memory of you that is destined to rest alongside of Stan the Man who patiently waits for you to join him as one of the greats. Little did Albert know that this homerun meant more than just another win for the St. Louis Cardinals. This one, Albert, will stick in the mind of a six-year old boy who was only courting the game of baseball before you sent St. Louis into a frenzy and made him a lover.

Had to go see about a ball game...

AndyB83 — Fri, 27 Oct 2006 21:38:25 -0000

I should spend the afternoon researching and writing my master's thesis. Oh, well... after an intense ten seconds of debate, a buddy of mine and I have decided to make the two hour trek to STL to witness this might-be miracle of a clincher. We'll be in the bars close enough to feel the magic but far enough to avoid the $6 beers.

Here's to all of you who will be watching with us.

And here's a feel-good article I ran across on Bernie's forum today:

http://www.tbo.com/sports/MGBHF3INQTE.html

1/2

AndyB83 — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 15:30:23 -0000

It's not even October and I'm already losing sleep. Fall is by far my favorite time of the year. I love the sudden chill that looms in the air and the way the leaves transform ever so slowly from green to orange, red, and yellow. The farmers are busy in the fields operating heavy machinery as they harvest this year's crop, and the squirrels are intuitively scrambling to find every last acorn to ensure their survival throughout the ominous bitter cold that lies ahead. There is no need for air conditioning and it's perfectly comfortable to drive my truck with the windows down and the radio up while the wind and the speakers compete for my attention. As I walk out the screen door and appreciate the emanation of smoke from a nearby burning pile of leaves, my default outfit will be a hoodie and shorts for the next 30 days. You get the idea; there are several reasons as to why I delight in the autumn season.

Well, I left out one thing... Saint Louis Cardinals' baseball. And this isn't just the cherry on top I'm referring to. This cherry is composed of all of the aforementioned reasons but baseball epitomizes the whole dessert. For the past three years at this time, I concern myself with a game that I have not played competitively since I was fifteen. Nearly a decade later and I'm still hooked. On one hand, my obsession is completely irrational; I'll concede that point. I have no genuine relationship or responsibility towards any athlete that takes their position on Busch Stadium III. My decision to watch these silly games (and they have been silly lately) has no bearing upon the tallies on the board once that final out is recorded. Jimmy Baseball has no idea that I get chills every time I see replays of his heroic feats in the 2004 NLCS. No, Hollywood is oblivious to how loud I screamed and how high I jumped when he hit a three-run homerun in his triumphant return to the lineup this past week. Aaron Miles has never heard my opinion of him even though I remind him every game... hell, every at bat. Yadier Molina cannot know that he remains my favorite Cardinal despite his woeful stick at the plate. Jason Marquis has no idea that I turned my back on him after he gave up the third Brewer run of last night's game. Tony La Russa could not care less that I disagree with a decision or two that he makes each game.

On the other hand, my devotion to this team could not make any more sense. First, they give me something to talk about. The Cardinals have solidified friendships in my life. You may say that this comes off as totally shallow... well, I disagree. Baseball brings people together. Some of my fondest memories have occurred at or around the ballpark; and it's not about whether the tally goes in the win or loss column after the game. It's about the process by which that tally unfolds; it's about tailgating and talking with friends before the game, it's about watching a little one witness the grand scale of it all from the upper deck for the first time. Second, this game is different. I am a process oriented person. Of course there are exceptions, but I try not to concern myself much with results. Baseball is a process oriented game. Contrary to what TLR might argue, a win is not the bottom line in the grand scheme of a 162-game season. To the contrary, it is about watching the plot unfold in between the first and last pitches that is so rewarding. Each development within the game contains a tiny bit of insight as to what may happen next. For instance, from the first batter that Jason Marquis faces in any given game, you get a sense of how his performance is going to unfold. If Juancion flails at the first pitch of an at-bat and it would have been low and outside for a ball, you can bet that he's about to strikeout. If the opposing pitcher puts runners on first and second with Pujols in the box, you can mark your score card before the man even takes a swing. And some things translate from game to game like Izzy blowing a save, Albert hitting a walkoff homerun, or Carpenter pitching a complete game. A drama unfolds in the game of baseball unlike any sport. Reason three: this is a petty game. Now, it seems like this logic should argue against my own reasoning. Hang with me. I know that this game is meaningless yet I delight in shutting out the rest of the world and committing my hopes, fears, and pride to a cause that will never know my name. I love my age but I must admit that life is stressful. The number or roles that I am supposed to fulfill in life is overwhelming right now: student, researcher, academic assistant, therapist, friend, son, brother, uncle, etc... the list rages ahead. Allowing myself three hours each day to get lost in a game that is ultimately meaningless is the best prescription for my sanity. It keeps me grounded and gives me something to anticipate from day to day (besides friends, family, and all of those pat answers).

Wait. Where was I going with all of this? Oh, yeah.

For six months, baseball provides rest and relaxation. If the Cardinals lose, I can take solace in the fact that they played hard or the way the rotation looks like it is finally coming around. If they win, I will allow my expectations inflate just beyond reasonable for the playoffs. "Maybe they do have something after all." Point being, I should have 3 more days of solitude. With the exception of a miracle (the Houston Astros), the Cardinals should have wrapped up the division by now... players should be getting rest, pitchers should be getting in order, and TLR should be using regular season games as mere scenarios that may arise in the first or second week of October. Instead, the Cardinals stand only 1/2 game in the lead of the Houston Astros... which really means that they are tied for first place. The magic number has only dropped one notch in the past ten days. If the boys can't put it together tonight, then all of a sudden, the Astros steal our magic number and the Cards will be left playing catch up. Let's face it, the Redbirds have been playing catch up all year with themselves. This should be a scenario that they are familiar with by now. Orientation is over. This team needs to forget who is sitting on the bench (Edmonds, Eckstein, Mulder, etc.) and remember who is playing on the field.

Cardinals, I implore you:

1.) Jeff Weaver: Have some life out there tonight, eh, kid? You've been in this league for years now and should be ashamed of yourself for allowing your kid brother to shatter your career. Have some poise. Prediction: you won't pitch a shut-out tonight. You will probably give up a homerun to Prince Fielder. Don't mope around and hang your head after giving up a measily run. Go back out to the mound and take care of your business, man. If you pitch seven innings and only give up one run, be proud of yourself and ashamed of the offense for not picking you up. Have some dignity. Bottom line... look like you are having fun. For all you are concerned, this is the game of your life if you want to make any money at all next year.

2.) La Russa: Put Duncan in the line-up. I know that Chris Capuano is pitching for the Brew Crew and he's a lefty, but I beg you... just don't send Preston Wilson out there instead. Prediction: He'll strike out and waste at bats. He might hit a homerun, he might get three rbi's like last night, but I'll tell you what he will not do. He will not take quality at-bats. Wanna know who will? That's right. That little boy you've known since he was in diapers, Chris Duncan. You know that Dave will be a little pissed if you don't put his son in the lineup and you know that Dave's disposition toward you is way more important than a little game at Busch stadium tonight. SO GO AGAINST YOUR INSTINCT AND DON'T PLAY THE MATCHUP. If Preston must be slid into the line-up tonight, then take out Juancion.

3.) Ronnie Belliard: I was less than enthused about your arrival in Saint Louis. But since I've developed a little bit of a crush on you and your smooth turn on double plays. However, please spend some extra time in the cage today learning to take pitches to opposite field. And stay away from Juan(cion)... I think what he has is contagious. You too swing at pitches low and outside. I don't think I've seen a major league baseball player whiff at so many pitches since Preston Wilson. I know you can hit the ball hard and have seen you hit a few homeruns and several line drives to left field, but could you please wait for an inside pitch to do so? It just doesn't work when you try the same approach with pitches that are low and away.

4.) Jimmy Baseball: Muster up some courage to take the field. When (and if) Capuano hits the showers tonight, you do whatever it takes to make Tony put you in the game. I know your head may still be a little cause for concern, but this team looks lost without you. Even if you are a little dizzy, just go out there and be a presence in the lineup. Make the guys in the clubhouse believe that you've never felt better and conjure up some spirit, would you? Apparently, heroic homeruns by Albert Pujols aren't enough... but, I bet a revitalized Jimmy Edmonds would be (even if it's fabricated). Besides, if I have to witness this horrific tailspin, you might as well wear the birds on the bat for a few final times.

I could go on, but I know my limits.

Go Cards.