SB Nation User Blog: AndyB83

Ankiel's "Hot" Streak

AndyB83 — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 19:16:54 -0000

So it's been said that Rick Ankiel has turned things around. Has he really?

AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS:
2009 (.260/.324/.458/.782)
Apr 6 - Jun 1 (.221/.299/.358/.657)
Jun 2 - Present (.359/.405/.692/1.097)

Sure looks like it. Has he had any other 10 game span in 2009 that matches up?
Apr 21 - Apr 30 (.364/.421/.667/1.008)

Yup; that's pretty close. So we're not out of the woods yet. He could tailspin into another month-long drought. The following are the outcomes of the result-pitches he's seen over the past 11 games.

Jun 12: fastball (groundout), fastball (groundout), fastball (single), fastball (walk)
Jun 11: fastball (single), curveball (SO), curveball (single), changeup (single), fastball (SO)
Jun 10: fastball (groundout), changeup (popout), fastball (triple), changeup (double), fastball (HR)
Jun 09: fastball (single), slider (double), intentional walk, fastball (lined out)
Jun 08: slider (SO)
Jun 07: fastball (groundout), changeup (groundout), fastball (SO), two-seam fastball (groundout)
Jun 06: slider (groundout), sinker (walk), slider (HR), changeup (flyout)
Jun 05: fastball (groundout), slider (SO), slider (groundout), slider (double)
Jun 04: fastball (single), fastball (flyout), slider (SO)
Jun 03: slider (groundout), slider (flyout), slider (popout), sinker (double)
Jun 02: slider (flyout), changeup (SO), changeup (groundout), changeup (double)

42 plate appearances, 6 singles, 5 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HRs, 3 walks (one intentional), 7 Strikeouts (16.7%)

Of his hits (14), only six were on fastballs... fewer than half. Ankiel also has 8 extra-base hits in this span while only amassing 17 for the entire 2009 season. He only had 9 extra-base hits in his first 29 games which means that he's almost doubled his tally in the last 11 games (40 games total). That is somewhat encouraging, right?

If I could do it all over again (well technically, I could... but... no), I would have taken a look at the pitches right before Ankiel managed to get a hit on a fastball to see if he has been taking off-speed pitches to draw more fastball offerings. A quick glance over the past couple of games makes me wonder if the Indians know Rick Ankiel at all; of the 27 pitches that he was delivered in yesterday's game, 21 were four-seam fastballs (78%). Compare that to the Marlins whose 24 pitches to Ankiel only featured 11 four-seamers (46%). Then again, he went 3-5 that day.

It's been easy to see that Ankiel has been lost at the plate for much of the year. In 2007 & 2008, Ankiel welcomed curveballs. Respectively, he generated 2.59 and 1.61 runs above average on that pitch (per 100 pitches) while only .27 and .09 runs above average each of those two years on fastballs. In 2009, Rick's generating 1.36 runs above average on fastballs (per 100) while curveballs suddenly make him tremble (-5.7 runs below average per 100).

Not really sure if I have a point here. Just throwing around some information. Thoughts?

The Man & El Hombre

AndyB83 — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 16:27:50 -0000

The Man & El Hombre

Exhale...

AndyB83 — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 22:06:08 -0000

Exhale...

Pitchers & Catchers report...

Jimmy Baseball, Jimmy Cub

AndyB83 — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 22:58:42 -0000

That image of Jimmy running towards the ivy in blue pinstripes hurts doesn't it? I want to preface this post by acknowledging that I started with the sole purpose of comforting us as we watch our very own Jim Edmonds do his best to help the enemy do what hasn't been done in 100 years. Early in his tenure, I took a look at his home/away splits and it was ridiculous how Wrigley Field seemingly enhanced his statistics. I was a couple of paragraphs into this write-up before actually looking up his splits because I was absolutely certain that the same findings would remain: That it would not have been likely for Edmonds to put up comparable numbers if he never parted from the Cardinals. I also want to make it clear that I'm glad Edmonds is no longer a Cardinal. Subjectively, he seemed to be slowing down in the field. Over-the-shoulder catches at the warning track suddenly became doubles and triples... yet he continued to play that ever-famous shallow CF. Meanwhile, he appeared over-matched at the plate much of the time. So, when we were able to send him out to San Diego and acquire a decent prospect in return, I applauded the move (and even more so now as David Freese appears poised to contribute to the Cardinals organization either as a player... or important trade bait with Brett Wallace and Allen Craig also emerging). So much of us considered it a steal when Edmonds flailed in the spacious Petco park and was cut loose. And then those Cubs rumors started circulating... Let's look at three lines of numbers for Edmonds: 2006/2007 for the Cards, 2008 for the Padres, 2008 for the Small Bears, and career up through 2005. Only looking at career through 2005 because I don't want the years being evaluated to skew the overall numbers.

Team	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB per HR
Cards '06 & '07	.255	.338	.436	.774	23.06
Padres 2008	.178	.265	.233	.498	90.00
Cubs 2008	.256	.369	.568	.937	13.16
Career thru '05	.291	.384	.543	.927	16.79

Wow. Those numbers with the Padres are abysmal. We're all too familiar with the numbers he posted on the 2006 and 2007 Cardinals' teams. But look at those Cubs' numbers: better than career in SLG, OPS, and AB/HR. Surely, these numbers are inflated by the wind in Wrigley Field, right? Well, it seemed that way at first. I arbitrarily picked July 20th as the midpoint mark (although I'm sure this is not split evenly down the middle). Away from the confines, his SLG, OPS, and AB/HR were .417, .764, and 28. In Wrigley during this time, they were a stunning .781, 1.195, and 8.14. At this point, I'm certain that Edmonds has not regained his MVP form... rather, he simply plays in a park that makes his play look more impressive than it really is. Who cares if the Cardinals disposed of this guy? He wouldn't have posted these numbers in Busch III anyways. Not so fast. With the whole picture now in view, we see that Edmonds has been a markedly improved player than what we saw over the last couple of years under the arch.

Team	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB per HR
Cubs Away	.269	.383	.523	.906	16.25
Cubs Home	.242	.354	.617	.971	10.91

What about his defense? Surely, that's worse. We'll only give a quick glance here with fielding percentage, RZR, OOZ, fielding win shares (FWS). You can find the definitions for RZR, OOZ, and fielding win shares in The Hardball Times glossary.

Team	FPct	RZR	OOZ	FWS
STL 2006	.987	.898	38	3.8
STL 2007	.981	.852	48	2.9
SD 2008	.985	.914	10	0.6
CHC 2008	.973	.931	45	2.7

Nope. Jimmy Baseball just isn't going to leave us with any vindication. He's performing at a high level and we have to suffer through watching him do it for the Cubs. Even in the field, he's outdoing himself in nearly every category except the under-telling fielding percentage. Now, of course, his main gripe for wanting to be traded was because he wasn't considered an every day player by TLR. Turns out neither do other managers. He's only had 48 ABs against south paws this year as opposed to 292 ABs against RHPs. In 2004, he didn't have much of a righty/lefty split. Although our beloved Jim Edmonds may be nothing more than a platoon player these days, he's sure been one hell of one. I don't know about you, but as I'm taking in the 2008 playoffs, I'll reminisce about past Octobers... and many of my thoughts will drift to This Homerun, The Catch, and how #15 rallied the 2006 crew by handing out game-balls after every victory. It's gonna hurt to watch him contribute in similar fashion throughout the 2008 playoffs. If the Cubs were to complete their hundred year conquest, Edmonds would immediately become the darling of Chicago as he'll be portrayed by the media as the one acquisition that "knows what it takes to win." Indeed, this will be overplayed because his most recent success occured with the Cubs' #1 adversary south down I-55. Never thought I'd root against the guy, but the Cards/Cubs rivalry wins over the man IMHO. A guy can't be a legend for both the Cards and Cubs. It ain't right. Go Dodgers.

Perez gets called up...

AndyB83 — Fri, 16 May 2008 19:09:18 -0000

Perez gets called up...

For those Ankiel lovers. New promo for the Cards this season.

AndyB83 — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 04:06:11 -0000

For those Ankiel lovers.

New promo for the Cards this season.

Rotation Possibilities

AndyB83 — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 00:37:23 -0000

This write-up started as a comment to one of the threads today but quickly got out of hand length-wise. Basically, I was working out my own reaction to houstoncardinal's break down of Duncan and Ankiel's trade value. Also, I wanted to consider how the team would look different in 2008 and 2009 based on whether they obtained a (younger) starting pitcher through trade or waved the white flag on available free agents.

So we've got Carpenter, Looper, Pineiro, Mulder, Wainwright, Reyes, and Thompson right now for starting pitchers. In my mind, anything Carpenter does in 2008 is a blessing... so throw him out. I'd rather be conservative than think that he's going to provide cy-young caliber pitching upon his return. Our 2008 rotation at the moment (in the mind of TLR & DD; I'd definitely pencil in Reyes over Thompson):

Wainwright
Looper
Pineiro
Mulder
Thompson/Reyes

But let's look one more year down the road... Carpenter returns (presumably...) and at least two contracts are up in Looper and Mulder (whew)... so that leaves us with these guys for 2009:

Carpenter
Wainwright
Pineiro
Reyes
Thompson

Now, this is assuming that Mo (as he's so endearingly been called by the STL media) quits making moves... which does not appear likely following the shipment of one Jim Edmonds to San Diego. He's going to add a pitcher somewhere. Why do I think so? Well, we just learned that Reyes has one more option left on his contract which means he's likely to spend some time down in Memphis. And after posting a 2.95 ERA in 55 innings pitched during his rookie season of 2005, Thompson spent time in Memphis during each of the 2006 and 2007 seasons. So it appears that there's a short leash on him as well. Assuming that TLR and DD aren't willing to pencil either Thompson or Reyes into the back end of the rotation, Mo's going to have to bring another guy this year.

Would it be better to throw a multi-year deal at one of the sub-par FA pitchers available or would it pay more dividends to swing a deal with the little bait that the Cards have in Duncan or Ankiel? Again, I'm thinking ahead here... 2009 being most important while hoping to make the 2008 team somewhat competitive as well. Let's walk through this.

Which starting pitchers are left at the moment? Here's a list. Not a whole lot there. There's some mediocre pitchers trying to capitalize on this year's weak FA class while hoping to get some overvalued multi-year deals. These are guys like Silva and Lohse. Then there's players who might be willing to take a one-year deal as an opportunity to boost their value come 2009. These are guys like Colon and Weaver. Then there's some other names that seem to have been linked to the Cards at one time or another... Fogg, Benson, Armas Jr., and Clement. And then there's the recently touted Josh Towers.Lets' take a look at these guys. For the time being, I'm going to use 2008 predictions from Bill James that are listed over at Fan Graphs. If there's better historical stats or future predictions to use here, please let me know. I checked on ZIPS but they weren't yet available for every player.

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
Silva	199	4.61	1.38	3.71	1.58
Lohse	188	4.69	1.43	5.55	2.78
Colon	70	4.24	1.36	2.32	2.83
Weaver	185	4.72	1.38	5.74	2.34
Fogg	181	5.02	1.48	4.77	3.03
Benson	130	4.43	1.38	5.33	2.98
Armas Jr.	120	4.95	1.48	6.45	4.13
Clement	95	4.17	1.39	7.77	4.07
Towers	81	5.11	1.41	5.22	1.56

There you have it. A bunch of similarly league average pitchers. Nothing that the guys we already have on board couldn't do IMHO. For comparison's sake, take a look at the other two guys who that rotation slot will presumably go to.

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
Thompson	109	4.62	1.38	4.54	2.64
Reyes	109	3.88	1.26	7.68	2.89

On second thought, we might have an upgrade available in Anthony Reyes. If only he could get out of the dog house. As a result, I'm not convinced that signing any of these guys is necessary to make the 2008 Cardinals more competitive than they already are... let alone the 2009 Cardinals when Carp has a completely rehabilitated throwing arm. What about the names that we've heard as potential trading chips thus far this winter? Of all the rumored Giants, I'm leaving out Lincecum because it just ain't likely. If he's available, someone else is going to have a better offer. Same for Bedard because we ain't sending Rasmus anywhere (everyone knock on wood now). Again, we're using 2008 Bill James projections.

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
Cain	205	3.42	1.26	8.25	3.91
Sanchez	58	3.57	1.34	10.24	4.50
Lowry	194	4.13	1.41	5.98	3.80
E. Santana	160	4.39	1.38	6.98	3.21
Capuano	145	4.41	1.37	7.32	2.98

That's more like it. Seems that pursuing a trade (assuming Duncan or Ankiel and some throw-ins would get the deal done) offers us the best chance at fortifying a very ho-hum starting rotation in not only 2008, but 2009 and beyond. Most, if not all, of these guys are younger than their FA counterparts. The benefits are obvious: we'd have them under control for more years (assuming we are looking for a one year bargain) and they have more upside.

Our 2008 and 2009 Rotations:

2008

Wainwright

Looper

Pineiro

Mulder

Cain/Lowry/Santana

2009

Carpenter

Wainwright

Pineiro

Cain/Lowry/Santana

2009 Free Agent

Who are the 2009 Free Agent starting pitchers? Well, there's Johan Santana, Ben Sheets, and C.C. Sabathia. Also, there's other less desirable names such as Oliver Perez, Randy Wolf, Carl Pavano, Derek Lowe, and John Garland. And remember: A.J. Burnett may opt out of his current deal. Of course, several of these player's fates will likely be determined before they ever hit free agency... but the names look better than Silva or Lohse.

It should also be noted that there is quite a bit of money slated to come off of the books for the Cards after the 2008 season. No more Looper, Juancion, or Izzy. That extra money could conceivably be put towards acquiring a solid outfielder. Using the same list as linked to above, it appears guys like Abreu, Burrell, and Adam Dunn would be available. Therefore, the loss of production from Duncan or Ankiel could soon be replaced with the money that will become available after this season. And we could pull a one-year corner outfielder out of the current FA class in the mean time. It seems that 2009 is what the organization is looking towards anyways.

Juancion and Plate Discipline...?

AndyB83 — Sat, 09 Jun 2007 20:03:26 -0000

I want to preface this post by acknowledging that my days of delving into the vast abyss of numbers in baseball are just beginning. If you know of any available data that is relevant to this topic or of easier ways to obtain the data that I am working with (hand counted out everything from Gameday), I would appreciate those links.

Ever since June 1, when Juan Encarnacion opened the flood gates in the ninth inning of a 1-1 game against the Astros when he hit a HR to left-center field, I've taken notice of a seemingly altered approach at the plate. If you look closely at this at-bat, you'll see that he started out with a swinging strike and a foul ball. Juan quickly digs himself an 0-2 count... nothing new, right? But then something happens... and somehow... he lays off of three straight pitches low and away. Now, if you are like me... you've often been frustrated with Juan's propensity for swinging through pitches hitting that location. Chad Qualls knew what he was doing in this AB and I'd be he was as perplexed as the rest of us when the batter didn't bite this time. Rather, Encarnacion lived to see another pitch. Not wanting to put the go ahead runner on base to start off the top-half of the 9th in a tied game, Qualls had an unexpected challenge. The next pitch was a fastball in the middle of the plate and the beginning of a seven-run ninth inning was born. Where the hell did this patience and discipline come from? I suddenly had a newfound interest when Juancion stepped up to the plate. What if he was able to institute this same principle each time he entered the box? There will probably be a few digressions, but this post focuses mostly on the approach that opposing pitchers take when Juancion steps up to the plate and whether or not he has been trying something new at the plate.

The scouting report does not appear to be much of a secret as opposing pitchers reliably spot their pitches 2 or 3 inches off the low and outside corner of the plate. It's like Juancion's own personal version of groundhog day. Much like Bill Murray approached his bed every night hoping for a clean slate the next morning, Juan stepped up to the plate with no balls and no strikes, a clean slate if you will, and hoped for different results. Unfortunately, the scouting report alarm would often ring in the opposing pitchers mind and Juancion would bless us with another whiffer from behind in the count with both his bat and chin over his left shoulder. But something seems to be happening differently for Juan lately. Yes, opposing pitchers are still working that outside corner. But the results are not as predictable as they once were. My roommate and I have been discussing how he appears to be laying off this pitch which, in the past, inevitably led to a strikeout. I thought I would check the data available on Gameday.

Since May 31st (day before Juan put the dagger in Houston), 136 pitches have been hurled Juancion's way. During this eight game stretch, Juan has been to the plate 33 times, has seen 136 pitches, 57 of which were balls. That's good for 4.12 pitches per PA as well as 1.68 balls per PA. You may notice that these numbers are not incredibly eye-popping... but when you consider Juan's career numbers (3.59 pitches per PA), it's not so bad. He's only seen 4 pitches per plate appearance once in his career and that was back in 1997 (when he had 32 PAs for the Detroit Tigers). Overall this season, he's been to the plate 85 times, has seen 297 pitches, of which 107 were balls. That's good for 3.49 pitches per PA. What can we make of this? Well, something appears to be allowing our RF to go deeper into counts. Is he merely making more contact and thus fouling more pitches off? Or is he trying to take a different approach to his game in the batter's box..? Could it be, that after ten years in the league, much like Bill Murray in ground hog's day, he's grown tired of rolling out of the batter's box with the same results and has actually made an adjustment?

For the answer to this question, I skimmed through some of the available stats at baseball-reference. For his career, Juan has taken a hack at 50% of the pitches he has seen and 77% of the strikes. Throw him four pitches and he's going to swing at 2 of them. Make the pitches borderline and the probability that Juan is going to take a hack is probably higher For comparison's sake, let's consider a player wide renown for his patience at the plate. Let's go with Billy Beane's pride and joy, Nick Swisher. Thus far in his career, he's seen 4.16 pitches per PA. He only swings at 39% of the pitches he sees and 69% of the strikes. Swisher's putting together his best year yet in 2007. Thus far, he has a .430 OBP which includes 44 BB's... only 4 of which have been intentional. He's only swung at 34% of the pitches he's seen and 63% of the strikes. Now, imagine yourself as the opposing pitcher. Juan Encarnacion moseys into the box and the scouting report alarm resounds in your mind. Are you going to throw this guy a pitch over the plate? I'm sure as hell not. Well, so far this year, Juan has only walked 3 times. But his swinging percentage has dropped ten points to 67%. So, he's clearly swinging less often. Even in 1997 when he was seeing above 4 pitches per PA, he was swinging 76% of the time... which might suggest that he was fouling more pitches off than usual. This year (especially lately) I think he's trying to be more disciplined. Instead of ignoring this flaw in his game and denying an obvious hole in his swing, he's trying to make an adjustment. And, although his results have not been that different... he's still batting .253 with a .282 OBP... he does seem to be taking a better approach. Maybe when Scott Rolen finally decided to make a trip to the video room, he dragged 'ol Juan along for the ride.

As I mentioned earlier, Juan's seen 136 pitches in the past eight games. Of these 136 pitches, 57 were called balls. And, of these 57 balls, 31 of them were low and outside (at least according to Gameday's data). That means 54.39% of called balls have been low and outside when Juan has been at the plate. I think it's safe to say that pitchers are deliberately aiming a few inches off of the plate low and away. But Juan hasn't been chasing lately. He's struck out 4 times in these games. On more than one occassion, the strike out came on a pitch over the middle of the plate that he either watched or completely missed for strike three. In this stretch, he's batting .310 with a .364 OBP. Not bad. His BABIP for this period of time is an unfortunate .231. Over a full season, an average BABIP is said to be between .290 and .300. Therefore, his numbers could actually be a little better and, if he continues this approach at the plate, should improve.

Let's throw away the obvious comment and acknowledge that the present observations have been generated from a small sample size. I have probably felt more apathetic towards Juan Encarnacion than I have towards any other player whose worn the birds on the bat. His numbers do not merit praise nor complaint. I don't think that he has much value on the trade market. Can't see him making that much of a difference on a team that's already a contender. Seems as if our best chance at improving in RF comes with altering the player's approach who's already slated to get the majority of the playing time for the next year and a half.

In short, Juan Encarnacion seems to be making a few adjustments to better his game after ten years in the league. Probably a difficult thing to do as I'm sure his tendency to swing at outside pitches is a well-developed habit by now. But he seems to be getting better pitches to hit lately. And I think his newfound strategy at the plate is serving him (and the team) well. Keep it up, number 43.

Miles/Kennedy UZR Rating

AndyB83 — Mon, 04 Jun 2007 18:39:38 -0000

Adam Kennedy has become my favorite player to hate so far this year. However, I genuinely hope that changes being that we have him on the books for two more seasons. Neither his offense nor his defense have been particularly impressive to me. It is extremely hard to believe that he has actually saved this team one run with his defense. There have been multiple times where I've rolled my eyes following an Adam Kennedy defensive opportunity.

Even more surprising to me is that Aaron Miles' defense has cost the birds four runs. I generally feel pretty confident when a ball is hit in Miles direction and it seems that (more often than not) the guy typically gets the job done.

Personally, I feel best about the Cards' overall lineup on days when Eckstein takes SS and Miles fills in at 2B. Does anyone else share the same sentiments? Perhaps this objective data gives me reason to re-evaluate my subjective opinion. Or maybe it is that Miles rating is tarnished by his frequent out-of-position SS play recently. Is there a place to get just Miles' 2B rating? Also, have other defensive rating systems been released at this point in the season? I would be interested to see if this trend is consistent across rating systems.

Also, I would be interested to hear anyone else's subjective opinions concerning Miles versus Kennedy.

Poll

Who would your 2B be?

Grudzielanek looks good even in KC (oh, hindsight)

4 votes

Aaron Miles every day

2 votes

Adam Kennedy every day

6 votes

Platoon for Miles on days with a LHP opponent

10 votes

Should have kept Ronnie Belliard

8 votes

30 votes | Poll has closed

Quick Thought About the Winds on Jupiter...

AndyB83 — Wed, 28 Mar 2007 14:36:09 -0000

We all know the story by now: The Cards' are struggling with the bats but the pitchers look great.

Could it be that the wind in Jupiter is just as responsible for the Pitchers' low ERA as it is for the Hitters' low AVG & SLG?

Just a thought. But it seems to have some credibility. I guess one way to tell would be to look at our starting pitchers' GB/FB ratio but I'm not sure where to find that information for Spring Training. The assumption here is that flyballs would have more likelihood to travel further for extra base hits (more doubles, homeruns, etc.) while ground balls would be largely unaffected by the winds.

Had the Cards' pitchers been pitching in Arizona (or St. Louis), would we all be as content with their numbers?