Dear Don,

Only you and Sean White know exactly what dirt he has on you that he's holding over your head. Nobody can come to your rescue on that one. Sorry. Whatever it is, though, unless maybe it's pictures of you in naught but a pink tutu feeding a puppy to a crocodile, we will forgive you. Eventually. What we can not forgive is the continued overuse of said Mr. White.

Did you know, for example, that after today, the team you are paid handsomely to manage is a miserable 2-19 when Sean White makes an appearance? That your team is 28-23 when he doesn't?

"Ah ha!" I hear you saying, "correlation does not imply causation! In fact, the number of runs credited to Sean have only been equal to or greater than the eventual margin of loss one time!"

Good one, Wak, good one. No, he's not personally responsible for the team being below .500, but did you know that of all the pitchers to appear out of your bullpen, White has the second-worst WPA/LI, ahead of only Ian Snell, who is literally not a Major League pitcher? Yet with Lowe gone, White has the third-highest gmLI, despite having the worst xFIP out of the bullpen, and that includes three (!) pitchers who were doing their job so poorly that they were removed from the roster.

His pLI, by the way, is just 0.69. By comparing gmLI with pLI, you can plainly see that he has often left the game in worse shape than when he inherited it. White owns the worst ratio on the team, in fact. Speaking of inheritance, his LOB% is in the low 60's. FYI, this is bad. Even before counting today's "performance," he ranked 209 out of 236 relief pitchers with at least 10 IP.

So given his nice shiny ERA of 7.27 (worst currently on the team, for what it's worth), the only picture I see being painted is one of a bad pitcher. Whether using new statistics or old, the only case that can be made in Sean White's favor is that he may be ever so slightly better than Ian Snell, who every team in the Major Leagues just passed on.

Somehow, he's the 8th-best pitcher on a 7-man staff, and you treat him like a trusted setup man.

So I reiterate, if it's catastrophic embarrassment you seek to avoid, bury him at the back end of mop-up duties, and just let the pictures come out. Really, it's better for all of us. Except Sean White. Fuck him.

 

Sincerely,

One of the eight fans who still cares.

This is really bugging me, and it all goes back to Graham's post a few weeks ago (thanks, Graham!):

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/12/22/699319/clement-the-catcher

So the difference between the worst catcher of all time and the best is on the order of 2 wins a season. Which isn't very much.

...snip...

For 5 runs of defensive upgrade, Jeff Clement would lose 25 runs of positional value. 25! Potential injuries aside, no matter how bad he looks in the field, there is no way that you shift Clement off his postion right now. As an average major league hitter, a level well within his ability to reach, he'd be worth 2-2.5 WAR as a catcher against 0-0.5 WAR as a DH/1B. Start being less conservative with his defence (after all, he's not going to be Piazza bad), and the difference only grows.

The implication here is that if a player is physically capable of squatting and catching most pitches, he should be used as a catcher until he is no longer capable of doing so.

Just for fun, let's try this with, I don't know, Raul Ibanez. You could substitute Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell or Bobby Abreu any of the other "should be DHing" types if you like, but Ibanez at least has worn a catcher's mitt at one time, so he's the most 'realistic' if you can even call it that.

Let's say that Ibanez is top-tier, first ballot, Poopertown Hall of Shame worthy. Half again as bad as Piazza as Piazza was as bad as average (-1 defensively).  Theoretically, this only costs the team 15 runs? He gets 12.5 back just as a positional adjustment, which makes it almost a wash defensively.

Fangraphs has Ibanez at 2.3 WAR with the bat, but just 0.55 overall as a LF:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/replacing-burrell-with-ibanez/

At -2.5 runs as a defensive catcher (-15 for being historically laughable, +12.5 for the positional adjustment), he's a +2 win player, and totally deserves his contract, for the first year, anyway.

If Piazza was -10 runs defensively, Ibanez would have to be about -30 to justify making him a LF instead of a catcher?

So...um...WTF?

I do my best to follow all the stats, but I must have gotten a few crossed up here, because barely-replacement-level LF just don't go on to be league-average catchers, right?

Seattle Mariners = Talent Misers Era
Carlos Silva = Calls Savior (he'll need to 'call' his savior a lot)
Miguel Jesus Cairo = Ere Malicious Jugs (Goes well with Beluga Tits)
But since he's joining the former club of Shane Monahan, this might turn into: "Goal: Juice Misuser"

And our favorite player would get much more respect with a name like: Will Mosquito Bile.

On waivers:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/10/26/padres.giles.ap/index.html

Not really any way to candy-coat his year in 2007. Still, it wasn't too many years ago he was a productive player, and he's only 30 next year. I wouldn't give him a major league contract, but if he wants to stay on the west coast, he'd be a good pickup to push Lopez in the spring.

Forgive me a little late-season rosterbation.

The problems: 4 major-league quality starting pitchers for 5 spots. 92 major-league quality relievers for 7 spots. OK, maybe not quite 92, but close.

The solution: 4 man rotation. Dump Ho, bring back Lowe. Get Feierabend, Mickolio (when he's healthy, dumping Rivera from the 40-man) and Huber (when he's healthy) to travel with the team for the next couple of weeks, swapping parts out as they tire until they can be added to the active roster for the rest of the regular season. If things get desperate, there is enough dead wood on the 40-man roster to add the best of Rohrbaugh, Campillo or even Woods. Baek will be back in a few weeks as well.

Stock that bullpen full and limit the starters to 5 innings/80 pitches. Hell, with the Ho gone, it's not even that much more work on the pen than it's getting now. Get creative. Just slap the Ho to the curb.

According to THT.

He's also #25 in career Win Shares among active American Leaguers. Many of the guys in front of him are virtual locks for the Hall of Fame (and the rest are eleventy-billion years old), and Ichiro didn't get his first Major League Win Share until age 27. Most of the rest started at 22-23 or younger.

Link

One time fan favorite in Tacoma apparently had more than caffeine in his coffee. The front office got some grief for letting him go for nothing, but maybe they knew more than the average fan this time.

I don't know how many characters this is, but it's apparently less than 300. Wouldn't it be nice to have a counter if a limit is going to be enforced?

A different Joe Sheehan (who knew?) has a fantastic article up over at Baseball Analysts:
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/03/digging_through.php
Basically, ESPN is now tracking (and apparently making public) all sorts of new information, including data about pitch velocity, break, location and release point.

For the real diehards, there's a lot of new data mining possibilities. Hopefully they keep it up through the season, because it's the sort of thing that people much smarter than me can make into something really interesting.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2660428
Yeah, it's been rumored on the blogs for a few days, but now it hit the pseudo-official level.

$42 million for negotiating rights. If it's true, one of two things is certain:

1. Epstein is no longer in charge of the BoSox.
   
2. Epstein gamed the system purely to make sure the Yankees don't get him, and have no intention of offering a reasonable contract.

Either way, good news.
A good team gets saddled with a financial responsibility that no level of performance can match or he's a free agent next year, and even if the M's don't try to sign him then, he's a year older and won't be helping a competitor in 2007.

Could be

Also of interest, Piniella is discussed as a replacement. Hasn't that ship sailed in NY?

Torre has surely made his share of mistakes like every other manager, but there's no questioning his credentials. It's too bad Hargrove is coming back to Seattle next year. Torre could share more than a few things with some of the Mariners, both on the field and in the office.

Yankee Stadium:

MLB Player's poll: Toughest places to play.

First entry, Yankee Stadium:

"Since Joe Torre took over as manager in 1996 through 2005, the Yankees are 513-292 (.805) at home in the Bronx,"

A .637 winning percentage is impressive enough without botching the math. Silly sports writers. Get a calculator!

is the day after an off-day. We spend all our energy pouring over the recaps yesterday, but today there's just a generic preview of tonight's game.

Fortunately, there's Google News:

7 years ago today was the final game at the Kingdome. 1999 - Ken Griffey Jr. put his signature on the final game at Seattle's Kingdome with a homer and a home-run saving catch off the bat of Juan Gonzalez as the Mariners defeated the Rangers, 5-2. Ah, remember when he could play CF?

Would Ozzie ignore Jose Lopez in favor if Iguchi?
.279/.317/.465 or .291/.346/.429? Tough call, but Ozzie will probably go with his own guy.

Here's hoping Timber Rattlers pitcher Harold Williams makes it big one day.

The AL is kicking the NL's hind-end in interleague play

"It's one thing for the Red Sox to finish 11-1 against NL foes this season, but it's not just the good AL teams that are making hay against the NL.

The Mariners ran off eight straight victories against San Diego, San Francisco and the Los Angeles Dodgers"

But was that jab really necessary?

Something a little different to keep the good feelings flowing on a day with no ball:

http://www.sportstricities.com/sportstc/midcol/sports/story/7902942p-7796571c.html
A human interest story about the M's bullpen catcher.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/26/sports/baseball/26mets.html?ex=1151467200&en=af84fee8c95a9aea& amp;ei=5087%0A
Ichiro is in a tight battle with Jose Reyes for the most 4-hit games this year.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20060626-9999-1s26padnotes.html
All the home runs have the folks in San Diego confused, too.

http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=318&p=2&c=542485
Jeff Heaverlo's still pitching, but with no more luck in Salt Lake than he had in the M's system.

http://www.yakima-herald.com/page/dis/296722828403023
The 6-1 AquaSox had a good day against a poor team.

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2006/06/26/sports/scholfield/62506185557.txt
Mike Thompson made a big error yesterday, leading to a couple unearned runs for the M's, and he's pissed at himself.

http://www.sbsun.com/sports/ci_3980838
The 66ers claim the first-half crown. Congrats to them.