SBNation.com User Blog: Antiorb

the Man Astride Goldencents

Antiorb — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 19:29:54 -0000

the Man Astride Goldencents

We're officially adopting Goldencents as the CC Derby Horse of the Year, right? In that case, check out Kevin Krigger, the jockey figuratively behind and literally atop the horse.

Gerod Holliman

Antiorb — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 18:03:17 -0000

What's going on with him? I just checked ESPN's recruiting list, and he no longer shows on there for 2013 (although his commitments in both 2011 and 2012 are on there). Does this mean he's actually enrolled and counting as a part of the 2012 class, or is he no longer committed to UofL? Or is there some strange twilight zone where he exists, still, as a UofL recruit. Three more words.

Thinking through National Championship scenarios

Antiorb — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 21:20:14 -0000

(without involving anything too farfetched, such as Jacksonville upsetting Florida the same week that Georgia Southern beats Georgia)

First of all, I’m making three very important presumptions here:

If a team experiences two losses, they will not be in the game if there is a undefeated team available because the BCS does not want to deal with the fallout a mere year before they introduce a flawed playoff system.

One loss teams outside of the SEC are likely to get jumped except those already ranked ahead of us.

SEC teams must have two losses for us to advance.

Okay:

In the SEC there are 3 teams left standing according to my rules:

Alabama (undefeated): upcoming games:

16 Texas A+M (7-2)

Auburn (rivalry) (2-7)

W Carolina (FCS)

SEC championship (more likely than not)

Georgia (1 loss):

Auburn (2-7)

Georgia Southern (FCS)

GA Tech (rivalry) (4-5)

SEC championship (more likely than not)

Florida (1 loss):

LA-Lafayette (5-3)

Jacksonville (FCS)

9 Florida State (8-1)

It is unlikely, but possible, that all teams in the SEC could obtain two loss status.

The most likely way for that to happen is Alabama would lose to Texas A+M and still make it to the SEC championship game.

Georgia would lose to GA Tech, go to SEC championship game.

Florida would lose to Florida State, obtaining second loss.

Georgia, with two losses, gives Alabama second loss.

More likely:

Alabama wins out, Georgia goes to SEC championship game with 11-1 record and loses to ‘Bama resulting in a 2 loss record.

Alabama plays for national championship.

Florida loses to Florida State.

Florida and Georgia must lose one more game each, or Alabama must lose 2 and either Florida and Georgia must lose one.

7 = Rank of Louisville according to the more likely scenario of Alabama losing less than 2 games and assuming my rules are correct.

6 = Alabama obtains two losses to match Georgia and Florida. We will use option 1 going forward.

ACC playout:

FSU and Clemson have already played each other this season and are in same division.

Remaining games:

FSU:

Virginia Tech (4-5)

Maryland (4-5)

7 Florida (8-1)

Clemson:

Maryland (4-5)

NC State (5-4)

12 South Carolina (8-2)

We need FSU to beat Florida for the most likely SEC scenario to play out. It’s unlikely that Maryland beats anyone the rest of the season due to their deplorable QB situation, and I don’t think NC State will pull out the upset again this season.

Most likely scenario in our favor: FSU wins out, Clemson loses to South Carolina. At this point, FSU is in ACC title game against either North Carolina(6-3) or Miami (5-4). We prefer the Tar Heels because it’ll help our strength of schedule, but it doesn’t really matter as long as FSU loses.

5 = our rank at this point.

The remaining undefeated teams =

Oregon:

Cal (3-7)

14 Stanford (7-2)

11 Oregon State (rivalry) (7-1)

(possible PAC 12 championship game against UCLA or USC)

Notre Dame:

Boston College (2-7)

Wake Forest (5-4)

17 USC (rivalry) (6-3)

Kansas State:

TCU (6-3)

Baylor (4-4)

23 Texas (7-2)

Honestly, if all three of these teams lose, we’re good.

However, I’m guessing maybe a 50% chance each for Oregon and Notre Dame to lose one of their final three (they’ve got rivalry games coming up and some of their flaws are starting to be exposed). Notre Dame can’t score, and USC can. Oregon can score fast – but as long as you score once every time Oregon does and get one more stop than they do, you can win. USC almost pulled that one off last week; after Oregon’s first two scores, USC got itself together and paced Oregon in scoring for the rest of the game.

I don’t know if anyone will get lucky and beat Kansas.

So – it’s a possibility. There is a way that doesn't involve insane upsets.

I just don’t know how likely it is.

Oh yeah, and we have to win out.

(without involving anything too farfetched, such as Jacksonville upsetting Florida the same week that Georgia Southern beats Georgia)

First of all, I’m making three very important presumptions here:

One loss teams outside of the SEC are likely to get jumped except those already ranked ahead of us.

SEC teams must have two losses for us to advance.

Okay:

In the SEC there are 3 teams left standing according to my rules:

Alabama (undefeated): upcoming games:

16 Texas A+M (7-2)

Auburn (rivalry) (2-7)

W Carolina (FCS)

SEC championship (more likely than not)

Georgia (1 loss):

Auburn (2-7)

Georgia Southern (FCS)

GA Tech (rivalry) (4-5)

SEC championship (more likely than not)

Florida (1 loss):

LA-Lafayette (5-3)

Jacksonville (FCS)

9 Florida State (8-1)

It is unlikely, but possible, that all teams in the SEC could obtain two loss status.

The most likely way for that to happen is Alabama would lose to Texas A+M and still make it to the SEC championship game.

Georgia would lose to GA Tech, go to SEC championship game.

Florida would lose to Florida State, obtaining second loss.

Georgia, with two losses, gives Alabama second loss.

More likely:

Alabama wins out, Georgia goes to SEC championship game with 11-1 record and loses to ‘Bama resulting in a 2 loss record.

Alabama plays for national championship.

Florida loses to Florida State.

Florida and Georgia must lose one more game each, or Alabama must lose 2 and either Florida and Georgia must lose one.

7 = Rank of Louisville according to the more likely scenario of Alabama losing less than 2 games and assuming my rules are correct.

6 = Alabama obtains two losses to match Georgia and Florida. We will use option 1 going forward.

ACC playout:

FSU and Clemson have already played each other this season and are in same division.

Remaining games:

FSU:

Virginia Tech (4-5)

Maryland (4-5)

7 Florida (8-1)

Clemson:

Maryland (4-5)

NC State (5-4)

12 South Carolina (8-2)

5 = our rank at this point.

The remaining undefeated teams =

Oregon:

Cal (3-7)

14 Stanford (7-2)

11 Oregon State (rivalry) (7-1)

(possible PAC 12 championship game against UCLA or USC)

Notre Dame:

Boston College (2-7)

Wake Forest (5-4)

17 USC (rivalry) (6-3)

Kansas State:

TCU (6-3)

Baylor (4-4)

23 Texas (7-2)

Honestly, if all three of these teams lose, we’re good.

I don’t know if anyone will get lucky and beat Kansas.

So – it’s a possibility. There is a way that doesn't involve insane upsets.

I just don’t know how likely it is.

Oh yeah, and we have to win out.

Glee/UofL cheerleading mention

Antiorb — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 18:34:11 -0000

Glee/UofL cheerleading mention

So, I'm totally too manly to watch Glee (lying through my teeth) but one of the fictional characters got into the University of Louisville and was attending there because they're "the best cheerleading squad in the nation". Which is true. The more you know.

Wait, that's NBC, not Fox.

Fulmer Cup (we're not on it, but I love this thing.)

Antiorb — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 16:39:43 -0000

Fulmer Cup (we're not on it, but I love this thing.)

TCU is blowing up.

DaMarcus Smith at WKU

Antiorb — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 11:01:14 -0000

DaMarcus Smith at WKU

in case anyone else missed this news too. If he had to go anywhere else in the country, I'm glad it's WKU. Go Toppers!

BIG EAST and AQ Status

Antiorb — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 03:11:43 -0000

BIG EAST and AQ Status

Andrea Adelson consults the four letter network's BCS Guru and determines that, if AQ renewal is the same as initially obtaining AQ status, even with adding Boise State the BIG EAST wouldn't make it. However, no one knows how a conference loses AQ status.

Stats Thus Far

Antiorb — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 18:45:20 -0000

A Brief Rundown of the numbers in the BIG EAST so far. The first number is national ranking in points for, the second is points against.

Rutgers: 45th 11th

WVU: 12th 37th

Pitt: 70th 51st

Cincy: 9th 15th

Louisville: 112th 13th

USF: 15th 42nd

‘Cuse: 76th 68th

UConn: 88th 44th

Now, here are the teams we have played so far this season, and their rankings so far. In the brackets are the points we scored in the games we played against them.

FIU: 64th 34th (17)

UK: 118th 84th (24)

Marshall: 117th 61st (13)

North Carolina: 59th 19th (7)

A Brief Rundown of the numbers in the BIG EAST so far. The first number is national ranking in points for, the second is points against.

Rutgers: 45th 11th

WVU: 12th 37th

Pitt: 70th 51st

Cincy: 9th 15th

Louisville: 112th 13th

USF: 15th 42nd

‘Cuse: 76th 68th

UConn: 88th 44th

Now, here are the teams we have played so far this season, and their rankings so far. In the brackets are the points we scored in the games we played against them.

FIU: 64th 34th (17)

UK: 118th 84th (24)

Marshall: 117th 61st (13)

North Carolina: 59th 19th (7)

How do we look at this? Well, note a couple of things: While there isn’t a precise science to it (FIU is an outlier), we can see that our scoring against these teams is fairly consistent with the numbers: the worse the defense, the more we score, and vice versa.

So what about that outlier, then? We put up 17 points against the 34th best d out there (according to the numbers). For that we have to look at who FIU has played to understand their inflated points against number: North Texas, UCF, Louisiana-Lafayette, Duke, and Akron.

In contrast, we all know that the Devil competes in the SEC and has been enjoying a lovely year of losing to: us, Florida, LSU, and South Carolina, and those losses will soon be joined by losses to: Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Vandy, Georgia, and Tennessee. And if God really cares, Jacksonville State of the magnificent Ohio Valley Conference, a FCS team.

But I digress. Marshall has been up against WVU and VT before they played us, and NC has played Rutgers, Virginia, ECU, and GT.

So the outlier of FIU is fairly well explained by their quality of competition.

Now to the meat of the statement:

Our season is done.

It makes me feel sick to say it; after all, I am almost always completely optimistic. When we lost to FIU, I was planning on a 11-1 season. When we lost to Marshall, a 10-2. But now we’re far enough in that stats are starting to even out properly, and all I can see is death.

We’ve played two of the worst ten offenses in the BCS, and we are a third. We lost to the 117th offense, and won against the 118th.

I’m not going to bother to rehash the numbers I’ve already put up above, but you can probably figure out that our best chances of 3 more wins are against UConn, Pitt, and, of course, the pillow-bowl against Syracuse (again). The Battle for the Bottom? The chances of beating any of those other than ‘Cuse are less than 50%, I’d say, and the chances of beating WVU, Cincy, Pitt, USF or Rutgers are so remote even my unshakable love of HCCS can’t give me confidence.

So what do we do? We support our team, we go to the games, we stay in the stands, we support our coaches and especially the players who are going through this year so that we can enjoy increasing success in the years to come.

Why? Because while we’re complaining and whining in the stands, TB and Will Stein are getting sacked left and right and getting right up and keeping these games close (we’ve lost by less than 8 points in all three losses). Because HCCS is running, so far, the #13 defense in the country with a ton of inexperienced players. Because I can’t even count how many times VA has been injured since his freshman year, but he’s still there and still trying. Because these guys aren’t getting paid $500,000 a year to play for us, because they chose to come here, because after this year we aren’t going to have a single Petrino recruit left on the team. Because our 4th year players came into a 6-6 team, because our 3rd year players came into a 5-7 team, because our 2nd year players came into a 4-8 team.

Because we’re on a collision course…

Because this train is rolling…

Fling It.

Antiorb — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 06:43:28 -0000

Okay, I know last year we were a running team with Bilal pounding it, but I think we need to change it up this year.

We're at around 50/50 passing to run if you pull out sacks from the run game:

Passing: 129 attempts

Running: 131 (147 - 16 sacks on TB and Sunny)

When we pass, we're averaging 7.41 yards per attempt against 3.3 yards per run, and if you take out Chris Philpott's 2 runs for a total of 48 yards... we're averaging 3 yards per run. So if we run 15 times at our average, we're making it 45 yards. If we throw fifteen times and miss 5 of them we're going to hit 74 yards.

I know that there's only three things that can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad. And that we've had 8 interceptions this season to 4 fumbles.

I also know that you run the ball to open up the passing game. Well, the passing game is wide open right now, we need to pass to open up the running game, and that's not going to happen if they know that when Dominique comes into the game he's going to run or that we're almost always going to run on first down.

The Other Thing:

We should also start rolling with the Hurry Up when TB is in the game. Stein is good in the slow mo huddle style, but TB seems to do better when they've got him rolling right along. He's steadier at a fast pace, and I think we've all noticed that about him. I don't know why it is, but if the shoe fits, wear it. Get some of those cool flip boards Oregon uses that have pictures on them to represent the plays and start flinging that ol' pigskin right along...

One other thing:

Can we please nickname Teddy Bridgewater "Tuberculosis"? He's going to make you cough up blood! It's ominous, but not too scary for the kids.

Okay, I know last year we were a running team with Bilal pounding it, but I think we need to change it up this year.

We're at around 50/50 passing to run if you pull out sacks from the run game:

Passing: 129 attempts

Running: 131 (147 - 16 sacks on TB and Sunny)

I know that there's only three things that can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad. And that we've had 8 interceptions this season to 4 fumbles.

The Other Thing:

One other thing:

Can we please nickname Teddy Bridgewater "Tuberculosis"? He's going to make you cough up blood! It's ominous, but not too scary for the kids.

Bye TCU

Antiorb — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 06:42:27 -0000

Bye TCU

Sources say TCU is accepting the Big 12 invitation Monday. No surprise there.

Absurd Solutions to Conference realignment!

Antiorb — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 17:06:45 -0000

1) Let's go English Premier League style on it. Bring in a lower tier conference, establish relegation. The top two teams in the lower conference move up to the higher conference for the next year and get paid out the same amount of money as the rest of the higher league conference. The lowest two teams in the higher league move down and get paid the amount of money the lower conference gets. I'm talking' bout relegation, baby!.

2) The Big East Invitational Basketball Tournament: we offer 24 schools the chance to join the Big East based upon their winning percentages in football over the last five years. However, they have to participate in a basketball playoff to be admitted, the highest 6 teams get in -- contingent on beating St. Johns and DePaul.

3) Call in to win: We start a radio channel online and ask for business cards from the head coach of every team that wants to join. We put them in a fishbowl, and draw them out at random after playing Lady Gaga's Poker Face, and say the name of the coach. He has 6 minutes to call in or he doesn't get into the conference.

4) American Football Idol: Pretty self explanatory. I say we use Bobby Knight, Lee Corso, and Bill Simmons as our judges. Bobby Knight'll definitely be the Simon Cowell.

5) Raid a FCS conference so we can claim for the next 5 years we're waiting for our teams to build up. Except for Appalachian State which will probably be competitive from the beginning.

6) Over the Top: An arm wrestling tournament judged by Sylvester Stallone.

7) Magic 8 Ball: We call together every program that wants in and have their coach ask "Do I get to join the Big East?"

4) American Football Idol: Pretty self explanatory. I say we use Bobby Knight, Lee Corso, and Bill Simmons as our judges. Bobby Knight'll definitely be the Simon Cowell.

5) Raid a FCS conference so we can claim for the next 5 years we're waiting for our teams to build up. Except for Appalachian State which will probably be competitive from the beginning.

6) Over the Top: An arm wrestling tournament judged by Sylvester Stallone.

7) Magic 8 Ball: We call together every program that wants in and have their coach ask "Do I get to join the Big East?"

this doesn't deserve a post

Antiorb — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 02:34:05 -0000

But what happens with Damarcus Smith since he didn't qualify? Does he lose a year of eligibility or his redshirt year or does he come in with a full 5 years ahead of him?

Also, to talk random smack, I think UCF would be a really bad choice for the BIG EAST, I don't like the idea of adding a school that is currently embroiled in a recruiting controversy.

Four more words needed.

But what happens with Damarcus Smith since he didn't qualify? Does he lose a year of eligibility or his redshirt year or does he come in with a full 5 years ahead of him?

Also, to talk random smack, I think UCF would be a really bad choice for the BIG EAST, I don't like the idea of adding a school that is currently embroiled in a recruiting controversy.

Four more words needed.

a quick distance rundown...

Antiorb — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 03:31:36 -0000

I have no clue what's going to happen, I refuse to conjecture on it anymore, but I needed something to do instead of writing my paper that's due tomorrow, so here ya go.

I screwed up and didn't move Texas A&M out of the Big 12 and into the SEC, but this is the distance from Louisville to our varied non Big East possibilities. Big 12 is broken up based upon assumed divisions, but I'm sure there'll be something weird like East/West which will really screw the travel times.

And I used 60mph because it's hard to average more than that with bathroom breaks and food. Also, removing Texas A&M out of the equation would not have a major impact on the Big 12 nor majorly increase the SEC West distances/times.

*update*

Added our current commute times to the teams that are staying.

Added the candidates for membership people are talking about, decided not to bother with guessing which ones will make it so I didn't calculate their effect on times, but all of them except Air Force and UCF should have minimal impact.

Big East		Distance	Hours
Cincy	Cincinnati, OH	99.50	1.66
Uconn	Storrs, CT	897.00	14.95
Rutgers	New Brunswick, NJ	717.00	11.95
USF	Tampa, Fl	876.00	14.60
WVU	Morgantown, WV	402.00	6.70
TCU	Fort Worth, TX	867.00	14.45
Averages		643.08	10.72

Possible BE additions
ECU	Greenville, NC	650.00	10.83
Navy	Annapolis, MD	629.00	10.48
Air Force	Colorado Springs, CO	1082.00	18.03
Villanova	Villanova, PA	659.00	10.98
Army	West Point, NY	781.00	13.02
UCF	Orlando, FL	858.00	14.30

SEC		Distance	Hours @ 60 MPH
University of Florida	Gainesville, Florida	751.00	12.52
University of Georgia	Athens, Georgia	479.00	7.98
University of Kentucky	Lexington, Kentucky	75.00	1.25
University of South Carolina	Columbia, South Carolina	507.00	8.45
University of Tennessee	Knoxville, Tennessee	246.00	4.10
Vanderbilt University	Nashville, Tennessee	174.00	2.90
Averages		372.00	6.20


University of Alabama	Tuscaloosa, Alabama	421.00	7.02
University of Arkansas	Fayetteville, Arkansas	622.00	10.37
Auburn University	Auburn, Alabama	475.00	7.92
Louisiana State University	Baton Rouge, Louisiana	759.00	12.65
Mississippi State University	Starkville, Mississippi	451.00	7.52
University of Mississippi	Oxford, Mississippi	406.00	6.77
Averages		522.33	8.71

Average overall		447.17	7.45


*Big 12*
Iowa State University	Ames, Iowa	613.00	10.22
University of Kansas	Lawrence, Kansas	548.00	9.13
Kansas State University	Manhattan, Kansas	629.00	10.48
University of Missouri	Columbia, Missouri	386.00	6.43
Oklahoma State University	Norman, Oklahoma	778.00	12.97
Average		492.33	8.21

University of Oklahoma	Stillwater, Oklahoma	725.00	12.08
University of Texas	Austin, Texas	1031.00	17.18
Texas A&M University	College Station, Texas	943.00	15.72
Texas Tech University	Lubbock, Texas	1106.00	18.43
Baylor University	Waco, Texas	930.00	15.50
Average		789.17	13.15

Average Overall		768.90	12.82

I have no clue what's going to happen, I refuse to conjecture on it anymore, but I needed something to do instead of writing my paper that's due tomorrow, so here ya go.

*update*

Added our current commute times to the teams that are staying.

Big East		Distance	Hours
Cincy	Cincinnati, OH	99.50	1.66
Uconn	Storrs, CT	897.00	14.95
Rutgers	New Brunswick, NJ	717.00	11.95
USF	Tampa, Fl	876.00	14.60
WVU	Morgantown, WV	402.00	6.70
TCU	Fort Worth, TX	867.00	14.45
Averages		643.08	10.72

Possible BE additions
ECU	Greenville, NC	650.00	10.83
Navy	Annapolis, MD	629.00	10.48
Air Force	Colorado Springs, CO	1082.00	18.03
Villanova	Villanova, PA	659.00	10.98
Army	West Point, NY	781.00	13.02
UCF	Orlando, FL	858.00	14.30

SEC		Distance	Hours @ 60 MPH
University of Florida	Gainesville, Florida	751.00	12.52
University of Georgia	Athens, Georgia	479.00	7.98
University of Kentucky	Lexington, Kentucky	75.00	1.25
University of South Carolina	Columbia, South Carolina	507.00	8.45
University of Tennessee	Knoxville, Tennessee	246.00	4.10
Vanderbilt University	Nashville, Tennessee	174.00	2.90
Averages		372.00	6.20


University of Alabama	Tuscaloosa, Alabama	421.00	7.02
University of Arkansas	Fayetteville, Arkansas	622.00	10.37
Auburn University	Auburn, Alabama	475.00	7.92
Louisiana State University	Baton Rouge, Louisiana	759.00	12.65
Mississippi State University	Starkville, Mississippi	451.00	7.52
University of Mississippi	Oxford, Mississippi	406.00	6.77
Averages		522.33	8.71

Average overall		447.17	7.45


*Big 12*
Iowa State University	Ames, Iowa	613.00	10.22
University of Kansas	Lawrence, Kansas	548.00	9.13
Kansas State University	Manhattan, Kansas	629.00	10.48
University of Missouri	Columbia, Missouri	386.00	6.43
Oklahoma State University	Norman, Oklahoma	778.00	12.97
Average		492.33	8.21

University of Oklahoma	Stillwater, Oklahoma	725.00	12.08
University of Texas	Austin, Texas	1031.00	17.18
Texas A&M University	College Station, Texas	943.00	15.72
Texas Tech University	Lubbock, Texas	1106.00	18.43
Baylor University	Waco, Texas	930.00	15.50
Average		789.17	13.15

Average Overall		768.90	12.82

Thoughts on Louisville's conference situation

Antiorb — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 03:03:49 -0000

I've been looking through the mass of comments on the post where I've tracked developments since yesterday, and I just wanted to cover a couple of my personal thoughts before I go to sleep. Because I'm tired and don't want to worry about coherent sentence structure, let us go to bullet points.

SEC:

The SEC does not need media markets. It's true, they've become a giant conference murdering version of Notre Dame. They have a very strong lock on the South and on the national championship game and that puts them in the catbird seat for their next TV contract which will come sooner than later.
The only way the SEC can hurt themselves through expansion is moving to a Yankee or Northern state. I can see them taking Mizzou, but definitely cannot see them taking Kansas. It's just too far of a reach for their fan base... despite the agrarian nature the major SEC supporters like to see in themselves, I doubt many identify with Kansas.
The SEC does not need a stronger football conference. Their biggest concern is beating up on themselves too much through the season, and they need to avoid having every team at two losses by the end.
The SEC could benefit from improving their basketball, though.
Tickets do matter. Rivalries do matter.
Alcohol matters... to me.

ACC:

Not happening.
They want to range up and down the East Coast and the only thing they need to do to be the strongest basketball conference is kill the Big East, which is pretty much done.

Big 10:

Slightly more likely than the Pac-12, less likely than the ACC or SEC.
The only reason it's more likely than the Pac-12 is around 2090 miles. That's the distance from UofL to Los Angeles.
Even if Notre Dame goes we're not.
It's all about the academics. The Big 10 is the only conference in the AQ that actually cares about that, and it's a big selling point for their schools.

Big Tweast:

Might, no probably, will happen.
Not a great idea, but better than any of the other options that'd be below this.
We'd have to eat some lower teams up and play some really odd days. I'm talking Tuesdays, Wednesdays, 10 A.M. the day after Thanksgiving, at three A.M. after the World Poker Invitational is off, whatever, if we wanted to have a chance of keeping a bid.

Football Independent:

We depend on our ravenous nationwide fan base to secure us a contract that'll get us paid real good.
Actually, that's not a bad idea, we get what, $3 million/year from the Big East? A $40 million/10 year contract would be good enough to tide us over until we can make some bigger strides, plus we could improve our scheduling.
Plus if we kept the Big East together to keep our basketball in, they'd probably still be able to get a decent contract.
Okay, yes, it is a bad idea unless we all agree to move out of Louisville and establish insular diehard communities of Cardinal fans throughout the nation.

Joining a lower rated conference/not having an auto bid.:

Please god no.
I can't believe I still used sentences when I'm rolling with bullet points.
Thanks to anyone who posted links that I added into the Pitt/'Cuse to ACC post as time went on.

I'm sitting here, now, thinking one last thought:
The only thing that auto bids matter for is money. AQ conferences get the cash, it's true. If we're concerned about money then yes, we should freak out about where we go.

If we're concerned about success, we should be looking at where we are as a fan base and as a team, not to others.

SEC:

The SEC does not need media markets. It's true, they've become a giant conference murdering version of Notre Dame. They have a very strong lock on the South and on the national championship game and that puts them in the catbird seat for their next TV contract which will come sooner than later.
The only way the SEC can hurt themselves through expansion is moving to a Yankee or Northern state. I can see them taking Mizzou, but definitely cannot see them taking Kansas. It's just too far of a reach for their fan base... despite the agrarian nature the major SEC supporters like to see in themselves, I doubt many identify with Kansas.
The SEC does not need a stronger football conference. Their biggest concern is beating up on themselves too much through the season, and they need to avoid having every team at two losses by the end.
The SEC could benefit from improving their basketball, though.
Tickets do matter. Rivalries do matter.
Alcohol matters... to me.

ACC:

Not happening.
They want to range up and down the East Coast and the only thing they need to do to be the strongest basketball conference is kill the Big East, which is pretty much done.

Big 10:

Slightly more likely than the Pac-12, less likely than the ACC or SEC.
The only reason it's more likely than the Pac-12 is around 2090 miles. That's the distance from UofL to Los Angeles.
Even if Notre Dame goes we're not.
It's all about the academics. The Big 10 is the only conference in the AQ that actually cares about that, and it's a big selling point for their schools.

Big Tweast:

Might, no probably, will happen.
Not a great idea, but better than any of the other options that'd be below this.
We'd have to eat some lower teams up and play some really odd days. I'm talking Tuesdays, Wednesdays, 10 A.M. the day after Thanksgiving, at three A.M. after the World Poker Invitational is off, whatever, if we wanted to have a chance of keeping a bid.

Football Independent:

We depend on our ravenous nationwide fan base to secure us a contract that'll get us paid real good.
Actually, that's not a bad idea, we get what, $3 million/year from the Big East? A $40 million/10 year contract would be good enough to tide us over until we can make some bigger strides, plus we could improve our scheduling.
Plus if we kept the Big East together to keep our basketball in, they'd probably still be able to get a decent contract.
Okay, yes, it is a bad idea unless we all agree to move out of Louisville and establish insular diehard communities of Cardinal fans throughout the nation.

Joining a lower rated conference/not having an auto bid.:

Please god no.
I can't believe I still used sentences when I'm rolling with bullet points.
Thanks to anyone who posted links that I added into the Pitt/'Cuse to ACC post as time went on.

If we're concerned about success, we should be looking at where we are as a fan base and as a team, not to others.

Poll

Where do you think we'll actually end up? (Be honest, not hopeful)

Big Tweast (with a bid)

545 votes

SEC

211 votes

ACC

83 votes

Big 10

48 votes

Pac-2billion

4 votes

Football Independent

24 votes

Somewhere without an auto bid.

103 votes

1018 votes | Poll has closed

Pitt, Cuse to ACC, on Rutgers and UConn, ACC tv7th Update

Antiorb — Sat, 17 Sep 2011 13:04:38 -0000

Pitt and 'Cuse are in talks with the ACC according to ESPN and the NY Times.

****EDIT****

Pitt and 'Cuse have applied to the ACC , according to ESPN's Heather Dinich.

The new news is that Pitt and 'Cuse have officially applied and that the ACC has unanimously approved increasing the cost to buyout from 10-13 million to 20 million which means... the current ACC teams ain't going no where.

Update:

Yep, it is done.

This would almost freak me out but we beat UK last night!!!!

***Update***

I missed this (probably because I don't like basketball) and triviageek caught it:

The ACC's pillaging may continue with Rutgers and UConn... great.

And the new new news is that UConn is desperately seeking the ACC according to ESPN.

I've got to say... at this point I WANT things to keep moving at this pace. I don't want to go through next week wondering what's going to happen, I'd like to have it all worked out this week. Towards the entire knowing what's going on thing, it's important to know that Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma and OK State are almost definitely in at the Pac 12

***Update on ACC tv contract***

according to Yahoo! Sports:

Swofford said adding two schools allows the league to renegotiate its 12-year, $1.86 billion television contract that began this season, “and we’re confident that will have a positive impact.”

That answers the question of why the 20 million dollar buyout matters.

***and on Rutgers***

Glad everyone was very transparent about their wheeling and dealing before the death blow:

Rutgers has not been as visible as some schools have been nationally, but Pernetti insists that plenty has been going on behind the scenes.

“The bottom line is we have been and will continue to engage in these conversations with several parties and evaluate. In the end, the answer is going to be whatever is best for us is what we’re going to do.”

So...basically, ignore everything below, I'm pretty sure my conference thoughts are useless.

***The original post which is entirely pointless other than the farfetched hope that UofL lands in the SEC***

Well, this is interesting and distracting news on Battle for the Governor's Cup day but not anything I think we can put off unnecessarily freaking out about and speculating on until Monday.

There's basically four options that I see for UofL to end up in a BCS conference if (more like when with the way discussions seem to be resolving these days) :

One, UK finally admits that they need some basketball competition in the SEC so people stop talking about how lame the SEC is at basketball and we go there to balance Texas A&M, WVU, and someone else, maybe TCU since I doubt the ACC is going to start bleeding right after getting two more members.

Two, we go to the ACC as they morph into the new Basketball super conference.

Three, the Big East remainders (minus WVU) and the Big Twelve remainders after Texas, OK, OK State and whoever the other one is they're talking about jump to the Pac-10 merge. This is the worst option: the conference is spread all over the midwest and northeast and comprised of the dregs of realignment.

Fourth, and even less likely, we join the Big Ten. I just don't see it happening, I don't have a defense for my belief but it seems absolutely impossible.

Of the four, option three is by far the most likely, and I doubt we'd be an AQ conference for long.

The second most likely is the first, I know that seems odd but geographically it's the best fit and more profitable for UK than they realize.... we sell out our allotment of tickets, we pack our home basketball games and we'll fill up our road games for BBall more often than not: Tennessee, Vandy, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama... plus I doubt we'd have that much trouble finding people who'd take Florida games as an excuse to escape winter.

The third is the ACC, but we aren't a great geographic fit: they range up and down the east coast. They might want us for basketball, but then again with Duke and UNC and ripping away Pitt and 'Cuse they've pretty much passed the Big East anyway.

The only way I see us going to the Big Ten is if Notre Dame decides to go in. I don't think we'd be a package deal, but Notre Dame plays the Big Ten more than any other conference it seems and I don't think the Big Ten'll expand unless they get ND in first. I'm not sure how they'd feel about us academically though, I know that that is a priority for them.

My depressing thoughts (and I'm generally overly optimistic, for example I foresee us winning out the football season):

We don't end up in a AQ conference.