OK, at the start of the season I was comfortable predicting a 6-10 finish. Optimistic maybe, but I didn't think it was totally unrealistic. The offense, however, is having real problems and we seem to suffering from a couple of key intangibles: loss of confidence/poor morale and a leadership deficit (I'm not even sure who the team leaders are on offense). This is a team that has to learn how to win. But when? KC might have seemed like a winnable game at the start of the season but they're off to a quick start. Cleveland has owned us for a while. It's starting to seem like a 1 or 2 win season is a distinct possibility.

So . . . who feels comfortable making their prediction about when we notch up our first victory? Want to jump in the pool?

I'll take Nov. 14 against Detroit.

OK, I'm hoping for the best from the Spiller pick. Personally, I was disappointed by it. I think you rebuild starting in th trenches. People are hoping Spiller is more Chris Johnson than Reggie Bush. I just hope he's not Ted Ginn, Jr.

But looking back on Day 1 two things left me a bit puzzled and concerned.

(1) There was a lot of talk pre-draft about us trying to trade down to get more picks. For a team with as many needs as we have, at the beginning of a rebuilding project, this seemed like a consensus opinion. But there was so much talk about how almost every team wanted to trade down in this draft I didn't think it was going to happen. Well . . . we didn't trade down. But that doesn't mean there wasn't a lot of pick-trading going on. Question: Were we even in the market? Were we open to trading down? Or were we so keen on Spiller we just grabbed him right away and that was it? We did make a fast pick. I would have hoped we would have at least entertained some offers, or at least seen if there were any.

(2) There was a lot of talk pre-draft about us trying to trade Lynch. Especially to San Diego, which is a team Nix supposedly had some good connections with. I thought at the time there was just a lack of interest on the part of other teams wanting to give up a second or maybe a third-rounder for a RB. Well, turns out San Diego did want a RB. They really, really wanted one. But not Lynch. Detroit wanted one, too. Just not Lynch. I'm assuming, but it seems a fair assumption to me, that we don't want Lynch (despite what head office has said). And he doesn't want to play for us. Did we try and move him? How hard did we try? Is he worth even less now?

I guess what I'm saying is that, at least from the outside, it looks like there were deals to be made that we might have left on the table.

Just some thoughts. 

What's that you say? It's waaaaaay to early to be makingn predictions for the 2010 season?

Nonsense!

We've got our new GM and HC. We know we're not going to make a "big splash" in free agency. And we can always take what we saw this year and project it forward.

Of course there's a lot of speculation involved. Hey, I really thought we had a shot at making the playoffs this year. (You have to remember, this was back when we thought Trent Edwards was going to have a breakout year, and players like T.O. and Maybin were going to make a real impact.) Going in to next year there are HUGE question marks. Will we have a QB? Will Maybin come along? Will Schobel retire? Will Wood be able to come back? What are we going to do in the draft? Is Lynch going to be able to stay out of trouble? Etc., etc.

Still, I thought it might be a good idea to ask for some early prognostications if only for this reason: It would help to lay down some realistic expectations for what we think we're going to get out of the new Buddy & Chan regime.

Some people have been happy with the hiring of Buddy & Chan. Some people have been angry. I think most people are taking a "wait and see" approach. But what benchmark are we going to hold them to? What, exactly, are we waiting to see? If we go 7-9 next year are people going to say "We could have kept Jauron and had another 7-9 year!" What sort of honest expecations do you Rumblers have going in to next year to measure progress against? This is where I think predictions are useful.

This is what I'm thinking: We are currently in major rebuilding mode with many holes to fill. We are also in a very competitive division (no, I don't think New England is in decline, they are rebuilding too). I predict another 6-10 year in 2010. I think 8-8 (or better) and we should be very happy. That would be a real success in my book. 6-10 or 7-9 is what I would predict no matter who was the coach of this team (Shanahan, Cowher, Frazier, whoever). And I could live with that record with one proviso: Given that our stated goal is to build through the draft, I would want to see clear evidence that we had a really good draft and were making progress on that front.

5-11 or worse, AND a bad draft, and I will be jumping on the "dump Buddy & Chan" bandwagon big time next year. Maybe that's setting the bar a little low, but I'm trying to be realistic. I just don't think we're better than a 6-10 team right now, and turning things around is going to take time.

Are either of these guys in play?

I thought Peppers was desperate to get out of Carolina. And I didn't think Seymour was too keen on being sent to Oakland in the first place.

I'm sure they wouldn't be cheap, but if Ralph means it about not being afraid to spend the money, they'd go a long way to filling some big holes on our D. Can't just do it through the draft, and I don't think we'd be rolling the dice too much with either of these guys.

I think Jauron is gone at the end of this year. 7-9, even 8-8, isn't going to change that. He'd have to make the playoffs to keep his job, and we aren't making the playoffs. But he is staying until the end of the year. Even if we go 3-13 we're sticking with him until the end. Hate on him all you want, and he does deserve a lot of blame since he's where the buck stops, but it is what it is.

I think we need a quarterback. It's not all their fault. They aren't getting a lot of protection or time. But Fitzgerald is a back-up who can only be counted on to manage a game in perfect conditions. I understand people saying Edwards has to be given a chance to show if he can realize his potential, but from what we've seen that potential seems to be decreasing. Personally I think between the two of them it's six of one and half-dozen of the other. I don't think Edwards could have got more than ten points against Houston. I do think Fitzgerald would have won the Cleveland game, just because of how bad Edwards played. In any event, if you take concussions seriously then Edwards is already a player who may be on the edge of Trent Green territory, and it's not going to be long before he takes some more dingers. I hope he can build some confidence playing terrible teams like Tennessee and K.C., because if not I really don't want to see him around at all next year.

I still think signing T.O. was a good move. Didn't work out, but that's hindsight. We knew he was going to drop some balls and have . . . issues. At least he hasn't blown up. He seems demoralized now and looking like he's thrown in the towel. Sort of like Randy Moss in Oakland. And yeah he's got 6 million reasons to care, and it's poor sportsmanship, but there's a part of me that actually has some sympathy for the guy. He is a fierce competitor and has shown in SF, Philly and Dallas that he'll lay it all on the line if he thinks there's a reason. But obviously he no longer feels there's any reason.

I think it's too early to label Maybin a bust, agree with last week's post, but . . . damn. Getting something out of our investment in him next year is going to have to be a major priority.

I think we are the worst team in our division. Looks like the Pats are, as expected, the class of the field again. Maybe if New York or Miami really implode we could possibly overtake one of them.

I think, and this is sort of where I'm going with this, we have to be really concerned about the future. Enough talk about us rebuilding (what we've been doing for a while now). Other teams are building for their future, too. And they are ahead of us in the process. New England is not only the class of the field again this year, they are managing to do it while they are rebuilding. And they even picked up a first-rounder from Oakland on the way, which probably will translate into a top-3 pick. We know Brady isn't going anywhere for a while, so overtaking them anytime soon looks like a tall order. The Jets have a strong, young, offensive line, an excellent new coach (in my opinion), and a rookie who may turn out to be their franchise quarterback. Miami is in the middle of re-building under Parcells, and we know that guy knows how to build contenders.

So how are we going to become contenders? Not through the draft! Yes, the draft is important. But it's also a crapshoot. And the draft just isn't going to make us competitive against the teams in our division anytime soon (I mean not just next year, but over the next few years). They all draft too. We are going to have to get active signing veteran free agents that can help us now if we want to win. I think that's where our focus has to be going forward, a lot more than on the draft. 

So how about replacing the draft scouting report this week with a special on next year's free agency class?

I gotta say I was stoked for this one. I like the one o'clock starts. I like to workout Sunday afternoons in the basement watching the game. Put some extra plates on because it's the Bills and Randy Cross is calling this one. I like Randy, he usually does a good job with the commentary. The following are the notes I made.

Not much happening in the early going. Don says "Great defense by the Browns." Holy crap. Our offense can make anyone look good.

Jenkins penalty killed a good play downing the ball inside the five. Penalties, penalties.

Edwards is getting time to throw the ball, but his accuracy sucks. He got away with a terrible pass near our own endzone that SHOULD have been a really quick pick six for Cleveland.

I used to think Edwards was at least a smart QB. Not anymore. What's with taking the sack on third down that takes them out of field goal range? He KNEW the blitz was coming. He KNEW the only thing he HAD to do was avoid taking the sack. Throw the damn thing away!

Penalties, penalties. Don says "Another flag, and we know who that's on." Oh, we sure do.

Sprint Halftime show. J. B. asks Dan to talk about the Bills game:

*Laughter*

Dan: "Hey this is a bad football game."

*More laughter*

Dan: "Is this the NFL?"

*Louder laughter*

Back to the game.

Penalties, penalties.

Randy: "These are supposedly professional football teams." Don: "This gets coaches fired. At some point there's accountability somewhere." You think?

So Jauron goes for a field goal. Buffalo Rumblers might hate this. I dunno. It's a 3-0 game.

Royal drops an easy pass from Anderson. Don: "Royal is usually a good receiver." Uh-huh.

3rd Quarter starts. We've got the wind. If we're going to light it up, now's the time to do it.

Don: "False start on the Bills. We've heard that song before."

Randy: "Hard to maintain any feel or rhythm when you're going backward all the time."

Edwards throws a ball at his receiver's feet. Randy: "I'm very unimpressed with the short-range accuracy of both these quarterbacks."

Both the announcers sound bored out of their skulls. This new movie "Law Abiding Citizen" looks like crap. But maybe that's just because everything looks like crap to me now.

Buggs goes down. "More snakebit luck for the Bills." But the defense is playing well, damn it!

Anderson has a 4.9 QB rating, and we're TIED!

Admittedly, Cleveland's receivers can't catch. It's not all on Anderson. Not even most of it.

Edwards overthrows Owens. Again. Looks for a flag, but the ball was uncatchable. Would have got a flag if it had been thrown somewhere in the right neighbourhood.

Another ball downed within the five by Cleveland. Our offense sucks. Our special teams suck. People want to replace Jauron with Bobby April? Are you kidding me? How well is his unit playing?

Even that new Budd Light ad, the one with Budd fighting the giant squid, sucks. Boy does it suck.

The announcers are calling for Edwards to throw it to open receivers WHILE THE PLAY IS HAPPENING! But he doesn't. They are mystified.

This is the worst defense in the league we're playing. Remember that.

Don: "A win would put the Bills at 2-3 and back in the race." Ho-ho.

Parrish running backward. What's up with that?

Another ball downed within the five. They are kicking our ass on special teams. Randy: "This is a special teams clinic." Is Bobby April taking notes?

Parrish muffs one. That should be it.

Wrap up: Last week in a fan post I suggested we might be one of the worst five teams in the league. I don't think anyone can argue that now. Maybe we're better than Oakland and St. Louis. That's it. Defense is doing great considering how banged up they are. Can't believe both Mitchell and Buggs went down today and we still kept it close. But both special teams and offense are dreadful. I mean, I can't believe how bad they are playing.  As remarked on by both Marino and  Cross, they don't even look like professional units.

This team is in trouble. You can forget about rebuilding through the draft, too. We need real help next year (and yeah, I'm thinking next year). The kind of help that costs money. Otherwise . . .

Are we the worst team in the league?

Probably not. I haven't seen Oakland play yet this year, but from everything I've read they're a joke, with no hope for the future either. And the noises out of St. Louis and Detroit aren't great either. Also, we did beat one team: Tampa Bay.

Beyond that, things are murkier. I have seen Cleveland play a couple of games. That team has some talent. Their problems seem to have more to do with Mangini and what he's done to team morale. KC also looks bad on paper, but (just like last year) they seem to be playing hard. Their defense was really getting pressure on Manning all day yesterday. Not that it did them any good, but still. Jury's still out on Cassell, but I honestly think they've got a promising young team. Tennessee is winless too, and that's just plain weird. Point is, we may not be the worst team in the league, but I'm starting to get a feeling we're in the bottom five (or top five draft pick spots, if you want to put a nice spin on it). Games against Cleveland, KC, and Tennessee should clarify things, but you know it's bad when you think those teams have gotta be looking at us as one of their best chances to get a W.

Yeah, it's early. But we do seem to be reaching that "it's time to write off the season, blow the whole thing up, get rid of Jauron and Edwards (because who could do worse?)" tipping point. Only problem is, blowing things up mid-season isn't much of  an option. The only thing we'd be doing with a coaching change is canning Jauron and putting in an interim caretaker for the rest of the season. I can't see someone like Shanahan (my pick) coming on board this train wreck-in-progress. Firing Jauron might be cathartic, but what is Bobby April going to do to turn things around? And while I think I've pretty much seen enough of Edwards, is Fitzy the QB of the future we need to get a look at?

What's even more frustrating is the fact that if we're officially into blow-things-up rebuilding mode we're already behind the rest of our division. The Pats are currently rebuilding too, though you'd hardly notice with the way they keep winning. They've also got draft picks up the yazoo (including an almost sure-fire #1 overall coming their way from Oakland). The Jets have Jabba as a new coach, with a new attitude, a great offensive line anchored by some young players, and a rookie franchise quarterback who seems like he may be the real deal (hey, everyone can have a bad game). Miami is near the middle of Parcells' plan too, and they just pushed us around. That game was embarrassing. Sure we've had injuries, but they were without their QB and their best defensive player! No excuses.

Arrrrgh. I honestly thought we had a shot at the playoffs this year. Now it's starting to seem like our best hope for NEXT year is a strike.

Sorry, but I just had to vent.