Random hot stove speculation time!

Reliver DJ Carrasco was non-tendered by the White Sox today. Carrasco has had two consecutive seasons of sub-4.00 ERA and sub-3.75 FIP.  MLBTradeRumors compared Carrasco to our recently signed Brandon Lyon, so maybe Wade would be interested in building the bullpen further?  Here's a quick comparison of the some of the 2009 stats for both Carrasco and Lyon:

Carrasco a potential pickup?  Discuss!  Any other non-tenders on your pickup list?

Arbitration decisions are looming and the fate of the Astros offseason will likely be determined by the decisions made by the front office.  I know each of us here has some thoughts on the matter, so here's a fanpost with my analysis (hopefully a little more in-depth than you get elsewhere)...disagree with me in the comments!

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While looking at stats to see where the Astros have room for improvement in 2010, I noticed something odd.  Kazuo Matsui has bizarre splits (insert tasteless anal fissure joke here).  For his career, Kazuo has basically hit right-handed pitching as well as he has hit left-handed pitching.  Here are his nearly identical stats against RHP and LHP:

Kazuo Matsui's Career Batting Splits

This is the sort of split profile we might expect from a switch hitter like KazMat.  But look at the oddities when you break those numbers down into his last three years (2007 in Colorado, 2008 and 2009 in Houston):

Kazuo Matsui's Splits - Last 3 Years

• In 2007, Matsui was better against RHP than he was against LHP, to the tune of +20 AVG, +37 OBP, and +23 SLG.
• In 2008, Matsui's numbers were basically the same whether he was facing RHP or LHP, though he still had an edge against RHP in the power department.
• In 2009, Matsui's splits suddenly go the opposite direction...he hit LHP better than RHP by margins of +26 AVG, +55 OBP, and +69 SLG.

What's going on here?  The variation between Matsui's career, 2007, and 2008 seasons can probably all be waved off as just typical statistical fluctuation.  But normal variation doesn't seem like it would explain 2009's sudden left turn at Albuquerque.  My first instinct is to look at two additional sets of stats, BABIP and PA, to see whether we might have luck or sample size issues.  

Matsui's BABIP and PA Splits - Last 3 Years

The first thing that jumps out at me is that Matsui's BABIP this season was basically the same against LHP and RHP, so that isn't the reason why he was so much stronger against lefties this year.  It probably does explain his better stats against righties in 2007, but it doesn't tell us much about 2009.

The second thing I see is that we might not actually be looking at large enough sample sizes here.  I'd hate for the analysis to boil down to just "need a bigger sample size", though...can anyone else think of any other reasons why Matsui suddenly hit LHP much better than RHP in 2009?

The third thing I see is something that gives me a little bit of hope.  It looks like Kazuo had a run of bad luck in 2009.  His BABIP was 20-30 points lower than his career average this season, and 40-50 points lower than what he was getting in the two previous years (after he left New York).  So unless this dip was related to a permanent injury, we can reasonably expect Kaz to bounce back some next season.

Today, Dying Quail posted his shoestring-budget plan for the Astros offseason, and it included signing a top-tier reclamation project so that new pitching coach Brad Arnsberg could work his magic.  I like the idea of going for upside this offseason with our pitching signings...I'm not really up for repeating the Hampton/Ortiz experience next season.  

Inspired, I've cobbled together quick profiles on the three pitchers DQ named in his piece: Rich Hill, Justin Duchscherer, and Ben Sheets.  There are still some other reclamation projects out there, and some potential buy-low candidates (Noah Lowry, anyone? Jon Garland?).  Post your potential pitching deals in the comments!

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Jose de Jesus Ortiz had quite a lot to say in his blog entitled Sad Sad News for Cruz.  A lot of his piece had little to do with Cheo, but one bit in particular caught my eye.  

How can you continue to have one of the worst farm systems in all of baseball with more drug suspensions than winning teams in the minors this season and still keep the same folks employed?

Even setting aside the fact that the ratio of organizational winning seasons to drug suspensions is not exactly a "traditional" metric for measuring anyone's job performance, this rhetorical flourish seems inane.  The people in charge have taken steps to fix the farm.  We fired the guy who did the most damage to the system (Purpura, remember).  Ed Wade and Bobby Heck got hired back in late 2007, and they've been working on building things back up ever since.  It's going to take a while to get that fixed, and until a reasonable amount of time has gone by, we shouldn't be beating the drums for people to lose their jobs on account of the farm still sucking.

More ludicrous to me is the suggestion that this year's drug suspensions in the minor leagues is adequate ground for someone in the Astros front office getting fired.  JdJO has made frequent suggestions lately that guys like Ed Wade and Tal Smith need to be run out of town. This time was the last straw for me, so I thought we should take an objective look at the Astros organization and its relationship with drugs.

Since they began drug-testing in 2005, MLB has handed down 314 drug-related suspensions.  Of that 314, only 7 have been in the Astros organization.  Those 7 were: 

• Felix Ramirez ('09, Boldenone, Dominican Summer League)
• Mitch Einertson ('09, AA Corpus Christi - second positive test for a non-PED "drug of abuse")
  
• Gabe Garcia ('09, Nandrolone, Rookie League Greenville)
• Runelvys Hernandez ('08, Amphetimines, majors/AAA Round Rock, contract not picked up the following season) - his suspension was later withdrawn by MLB because it "did not constitute a violation". 
  
• Lou Santangelo ('07, AA Corpus Christi, PEDs)
  
• Carlos Lazu ('07, Rookie League Greenville, PEDs) and
  
• Adam Seuss ('05, High-A Salem, PEDs). 
  

If we assumed that the 314 suspensions were evenly distributed amongst the 30 baseball teams, we would expect that each team would have 10 or 11 suspensions apiece.  Even if you count Hernandez's suspension, the Astros still come in significantly under this expected number.

The Astros, since they began drug-testing, have had fewer drug-related suspensions than the Mets had in 2009 alone (they had 8 this year).

Nine teams had more drug suspensions in 2009 than the Astros three suspensions:  The Mets, Royals, Phillies, Yankees, Cards, Rays, Tigers, Cubs, and Nationals.  The A's, the Rockies, and the Twins each had 3 suspensions this year, just like the Astros.  (credit to OregonStrosFan over at spikesnstars for totaling those up).  So it doesn't look like the Astros have had a disproportionate number of drug issues relative to other farm systems

On an absolute scale, 7 suspensions in 5 years of testing is not very many.  At last count, for the year 2009, the Astros had 287 players in their entire organization, from the Dominican Summer Leagues all the way up to the majors.  The 3 suspensions in 2009 represent about 1% of the entire organization.  I don't know the figures off the top of my head, but I'd be willing to bet that the rate of drug use in the general population is significantly higher than 1%. 

You can read these numbers any number of ways, but it seems like a stretch to reach the conclusion that the Astros, as an organization, have such significant drug-related issues that anyone (particularly Tal Smith, one of the major targets of the JdJO piece) needs to be fired for them.  The players themselves who've received suspensions certainly have drug-related issues, and hopefully their suspensions were effective at straightening them out.

And from what I can tell, it doesn't look like the Astros have created a culture of "look the other way".  It seems like they're actively trying to discourage not just purposeful drug use, but also preaching caution about supplements and anything else they might think about putting into their bodies.  Ed Wade:

"I'm always concerned about it,...[w]e try to educate the players the best we can on avoiding putting themselves in those positions...what we as an industry have to get to the point of zero players testing positive of any type of substances. And basically having zero tolerance for it. That's what the drug program has accomplished. If you see enough of your teammates missing 50 games, I think the message — unless you're a little dense — the message should be getting through."

...

That's a shame that no matter what the circumstances are it's a shame that something like that would occur. That's why we have to continue to educate the kids and make sure that they know that they can't walk to the corner store or go into some health food outfit and think that they're getting something that isn't going to get them in trouble.

Furthermore, the zero tolerance policy appears to be pretty strict.  Runelvys Hernandez's agent put out a press release describing the actions of the Astros organization when he was wrongfully suspended:

"However, we're not happy with the way in which the Astros handled the matter." Hernandez was informed about
the suspension when his agents saw the press release on the team's website. "To date, they haven't called the player to hear his side of the story, yet, they've issued several responses condemning him in the media...maybe that's just how they run that organization, but we expected more, and Runelvys deserved better."

Does that sound like the actions of an organization that is soft on enforcing their drug policy?  That they pass along the suspension and don't care to hear what the player has to say on the matter?  Sounds like zero tolerance to me.

You could point to the guys mentioned in the Mitchell Report:  Tejada, Pudge, Clemens.  You could point to Andy Pettitte, who admitted to using HGH.  You could, sadly, point to Ken Caminiti.  But even if everything alleged about these guys is true, there is no evidence that the Astros organization did anything to encourage drug use.

I wish I could say that I wouldn't read any of JdJO's columns anymore, but frankly, I'm too much of an Astros addict to quit.  I get my fix any way I can.

And I still don't know what the heck any of this has to do with Jose Cruz.

The first game of the Arizona Fall League was yesterday.  While farmstros or davoag will likely keep you updated on what's happening in the fall/winter leagues in these threadbare months, it's nice to mark the (mostly pleasant) results of the first game as a reminder that there's still plenty of Astros-related action going on outside of the new manager search.  Stat lines after the jump.

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Many of our minds turned to the off-season weeks ago.  One of the more exciting parts of the off-season is the Rule 5 draft, which is used to prevent good players from languishing on the minor league squads of teams with heavily stocked farm systems.  MLBTradeRumors gives a good, understandable description of how the Rule 5 draft works, but here's a quick refresher as to what players are eligible to be selected:

• Players who signed at the age of 18 or under are eligible after 5 years.
• Players who signed at the age of 19 or older are eligible after 4 years.
• You can be protected from the Rule 5 draft if you are on the major league team's 40-man roster.

A recent AP News article suggested that the Astros might have a tough decision this offseason as to whether or not Koby Clemens should be placed on the Astros 40-man roster to protect him from getting Rule 5-ed to another team.  This made me curious, so I went through the rosters and picked out the players who would be Rule 5 eligible. 

After the jump, you'll find the full list.  I've provided links to the Baseball-Reference pages of the 6 players who will probably receive the most consideration for being protected on the 40-man this offseason.  For those of you who don't want to click through, those players are Fernando Abad, Drew Locke, Sergio Perez, Jimmy VanOstrand, Koby Clemens, and Henry Villar. 

Quick Disclaimer:  This is my first time figuring out this sort of stuff, so you may want to take the list as a work-in-progress until someone who knows better (i.e. farmstros) has had a chance to look it over.    

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September is here, rosters have expanded, and the Astros are pretty well out of contention.  At this point, most Fans (meaning those who are still paying attention to the Astros) really would like to get a good look at what Tommy Manzella can do on the big-league level.  With the possibility that Tejada could move to 3B and Roy Oswalt’s call for more defense, it makes sense to see if the young (for an Astro) shortstop can handle the position.

The Round Rock Express play their final game of the season on Monday, September 7, and it’s possible that Manzella could get a call-up soon afterward.  The general consensus about Manzella is that his defense is major-league ready, even drawing comparisons to notable glove-artist Adam Everett.  This would be an excellent asset for the Astros.  In 2009, Miguel Tejada has an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of -9.7.  Jeff Keppinger hasn’t been as bad, but has posted a -4.4 UZR.  By comparison, Everett’s UZR in 2005 was +15.0. 

Everett’s defense saved a lot of runs during his tenure.  He saved so many runs, in fact, that he was able to post positive Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in each of his 5 full seasons as an Astro:

Unfortunately, Manzella’s glove isn’t the only thing drawing comparisons to Adam Everett…there are also questions about whether Manzella’s bat will play at the next level.  Despite his stellar defense, Everett drew frequent criticism from less sabermetric-oriented fans for his lack of offensive prowess.  He was a regular part of the "black hole of offense" occupying the 7, 8, and 9 spots in the lineup (usually including Ausmus and the pitcher).  The big question with Manzella is whether he’ll be able to rise to the bare minimum Adam Everett-level of offense. 

We can compare how Everett did in his time in AAA with the year Manzella had in 2009.  And we can compare how Everett did with the Astros with Manzella’s Minor League Equivalency (MLE) statistics, a projection of how his AAA performance would translate to the majors.  Here’s a big table with all of those stats in it:

A quick look shows that Manzella’s rate stats compare favorably to Adam’s relatively steady 4-year AAA career.  His BB/SO, though, shows that Manzella is not quite as patient as Everett was at the same stage of his career.  This will probably result in a less smooth transition to the majors for Manzella than Everett had.  Comparing Everett’s Astro-career and Manzella’s MLE suggests that they could be very similar players on offense. 

If Manzella’s defense really is up to Everett level, then we would probably do well to get him up in the majors very soon so that he can start getting used to major league pitching.