SB Nation User Blog: AstroAndy

Jason Castro Scouting Report

AstroAndy — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 22:19:53 -0000

John Klima over at Baseballbeginnings.com has put up a scouting report of Astros farmhand and top prospect Jason Castro after seeing him play 12 innings in the Arizona Fall League.

I won't poach his material since it's a quick read, but it's got some really positive stuff about the Astros' up-and-coming catcher. I knew Castro was good defensively, but Klima is calling his defense plus-plus and says his D is better than 90% of the big league catchers he's seen recently, with a chance at being the best at his position once he makes it to the majors. You rarely see guys hit scores of 75 on the 20-80 scouting scale, but Klima gave Castro a 75 for fielding ability.

I'm looking forward to the day when Jason Castro is a Full-Fledged Astro, but I hope they don't bring him up too quickly...don't want to Towles him.

Non-tender DJ Carrasco vs. Brandon Lyon

AstroAndy — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 23:28:39 -0000

Random hot stove speculation time!

Reliver DJ Carrasco was non-tendered by the White Sox today. Carrasco has had two consecutive seasons of sub-4.00 ERA and sub-3.75 FIP. MLBTradeRumors compared Carrasco to our recently signed Brandon Lyon, so maybe Wade would be interested in building the bullpen further? Here's a quick comparison of the some of the 2009 stats for both Carrasco and Lyon:

2009 Stat	Carrasco	Lyon
ERA	3.76	2.86
FIP	3.46	4.06
xFIP	4.26	4.24
K/9	5.98	6.52
BB/9	2.8	3.55
K/BB	2.14	1.84
HR/9	0.48	0.8
LOB%	72.40%	80.80%

Carrasco a potential pickup? Discuss! Any other non-tenders on your pickup list?

Astros and Arbitration

AstroAndy — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 19:26:00 -0000

Arbitration decisions are looming and the fate of the Astros offseason will likely be determined by the decisions made by the front office. I know each of us here has some thoughts on the matter, so here's a fanpost with my analysis (hopefully a little more in-depth than you get elsewhere)...disagree with me in the comments!

Of the Astros free agents this offseason, only four of them really matter for arbitration purposes: Doug Brocail, LaTroy Hawkins, Miguel Tejada, and Jose Valverde. Each of these guys is a Type A free agent. If the Astros offer these guys arbitration, then a few things can happen.

Possibility 1: The player accepts arbitration. At that point the player is considered signed for the next season, and if the team and the players have not agreed on salary terms by February 1, 2010, the player's salary will be determined by an arbitrator. Both the player and the team submit proposed salary figures, and the arbitrator chooses the salary that is closest to the player's fair value.

Factors that an arbitrator can consider are:

the player's performance, public appeal, and leadership
the length and consistency of the player's career contributions,
the player's salary history
the club's record and attendance,
the player's special accomplishments (All-Star appearances, awards, post-season performance),
the player's mental or physical defects
and the salaries of comparable players within a similar class of service-time.

Arbitrators cannot consider any of the following:

the club's/player's financial situation
salary offers made before arbitration
comments from the press
salaries of players in other sports.

Keep in mind that most players who accept arbitration end up agreeing to a contract after figures have been exchanged but before an arbitrator makes a ruling. Out of the 46 players who exchanged figures with their teams last offseason, only two went all the way to an arbitrated decision. As you might expect, this figure is usually about halfway between the player's figure and the team's figure.

Possibility 2: The player declines arbitration. This is the part of salary arbitration that most of us armchair GMs focus on...this is where the team can pick up draft picks.

If the player declines arbitration and he is a Type A free agent and he signs with another team, the Astros would receive two draft picks. One draft pick comes in the supplemental round between the first and second rounds of the draft. If the team that signs the Type A free agent finished 15th place or better in the 2009 overall standings, the Astros would receive that team's first round draft pick in 2010. If the other team finished 16th or worse in the overall standings, the Astros would receive that team's second round draft pick. Things get more complicated if the signing team signs more than one Type A free agent, but we won't worry about that here.

If a Type B player declines arbitration and signs with another team, the Astros would receive a pick in the first supplemental round of the 2010 draft. The signing team would not forfeit any draft picks.

Regardless of the player's type, if he declines arbitration, he can still sign back with his original team.

Now that we have a thorough understanding of the arbitration process, let's look at the four guys I identified at the beginning of this post, starting with..

Doug Brocail (Type B)

This is an easy one. Doug Brocail is a 42-year old Type B free agent coming off an injury-plagued 2009 campaign. The Astros have already declined his option for 2010 and offered him a coaching spot in the minor leagues. The Astros have already indicated to Brocail that they would not sign him back for 2010 at a lower salary ("I told him it was to time for us to fold in the younger kids and he was professional about it," Wade said.") and I can't say that I blame them. The Astros are not likely to want to risk him accepting, so they will not be offering arbitration.

LaTroy Hawkins (Type A)

To me, this one is only a slightly more difficult than the Doug Brocail decision. The Astros already have an offer to him on the table, so it's clear they would like him back. The 37-year old Hawkins has been on a series of one-year deals since 2006, and given his age, he's unlikely to find a team willing to go multiple years on the free agent market.

If the Astros offer Hawkins arbitration, he's highly likely to accept. There would be very few teams on the free agent market who would be willing to give up an early-round draft pick for an aging reliever who is due for statistical regression and who has a history of not dealing well in the closer's role. Teams would factor the draft pick into Hawkins's cost, and as a result, would offer him a lower contract than he could get with the Astros.

My verdict: Astros offer arbitration, Hawkins accepts, they exchange numbers (Hawkins around $4M, Astros around $2.5M), and they settle on a number in the $3.25M range before arbitration happens.

Miguel Tejada (Type A)

This is a difficult decision mainly because of the uncertainty surrounding the figure an aribtrator would decide is proper for Miggy. You might have seen writers say that historically, players get pay raises in arbitration. What they don't mention is that most of these players are still under team control, and a lot of them are seeing more-than-league-minimum for the first times in their careers. Very few players with Miggy's 12+ years of service time make it to arbitration. Last year, for example, out of the 46 players who exchanged figures with their teams, only David Weathers had more than 6 years service time (15+ years). In 2008, out of 48 players, only Mark Loretta had more than 6 years service time (12 years -- and we won that arbitration hearing). So it's hard to say what a typical arbitration award would be for Tejada...there's not a lot of precedent.

What could Tejada get on the free agent market if we didn't offer him arbitration? Davoag already did some fabulous legwork for us and found contracts for various SS, 3B and utility players free agents in recent years. I largely agree with his conclusion, so I'll just yank it and plop it down here:

[I]t's safe to assume Tejada will sign for somewhere around 7 million per year for two years. Some team may be willing to up that number to around 9 or 10 million, but only over one season... I don't see Tejada getting more than a two year deal from anyone.

John Heyman says the word on the street is that the Cardinals, Rangers, Phillies, and the Giants are all showing interest in Miguel. First, I doubt that the Rangers are looking for more than just a backup sort of SS/3B. But more importantly for this analysis is that none of these teams have their first round draft pick protected. This would depress the possible salary Tejada could receive from any of these teams if he were offered arbitration.

And we can't forget that free agent salaries have been trending downward. For example, Adam Dunn, who made $13M in 2008, signed with the Nats for 2 years/$20M. After the 2008 season, Bobby Abreu was coming off of a 5 year, $64M contract...he had to settle for a 1 year, $5M contract with the Angels. But the economy could be picking back up...Abreu signed a 2 year $19M deal just a few weeks ago.

My verdict: Astros do not offer arbitration, but do sign him to a 2 year $15M deal to play 3B...though it is possible that some other team does something stupid.

Jose Valverde (Type A)

My analysis here will be short...I've been ignoring my wife for too long tonight. Here was davoag's analysis. $10 million a year sounds about right, whether it's a free agent signing or an arbitration award. Valverde's public statements make it seem as if he is intent on testing the free agent market so he can get multiple years.

Verdict: Astros offer arbitration, Jose finds multi-year deal with another team.

What's your take?

Phillies release former Astro Eric Bruntlett

AstroAndy — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:23:35 -0000

Phillies release former Astro Eric Bruntlett

Super-utility player Bruntlett, who went over to the Phillies in the Bourn trade, hasn't put up very shiny numbers since he left Houston.

Houston stats: 539 PA, .250 AVG, .323 OBP, .364 SLG
Philly stats: 356 PA, .202 AVG, .273 OBP, .278 SLG

Kazuo Matsui's Weird Splits

AstroAndy — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:17:22 -0000

While looking at stats to see where the Astros have room for improvement in 2010, I noticed something odd. Kazuo Matsui has bizarre splits (insert tasteless anal fissure joke here). For his career, Kazuo has basically hit right-handed pitching as well as he has hit left-handed pitching. Here are his nearly identical stats against RHP and LHP:

Kazuo Matsui's Career Batting Splits

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. RHP	0.272	0.323	0.388	0.711
vs. LHP	0.270	0.332	0.385	0.717

This is the sort of split profile we might expect from a switch hitter like KazMat. But look at the oddities when you break those numbers down into his last three years (2007 in Colorado, 2008 and 2009 in Houston):

Kazuo Matsui's Splits - Last 3 Years

	vs. LHP				vs. RHP
	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	0.271	0.311	0.386	0.697	0.291	0.348	0.409	0.757
2008	0.291	0.345	0.408	0.753	0.294	0.358	0.434	0.791
2009	0.271	0.345	0.411	0.756	0.245	0.290	0.342	0.632

In 2007, Matsui was better against RHP than he was against LHP, to the tune of +20 AVG, +37 OBP, and +23 SLG.
In 2008, Matsui's numbers were basically the same whether he was facing RHP or LHP, though he still had an edge against RHP in the power department.
In 2009, Matsui's splits suddenly go the opposite direction...he hit LHP better than RHP by margins of +26 AVG, +55 OBP, and +69 SLG.

What's going on here? The variation between Matsui's career, 2007, and 2008 seasons can probably all be waved off as just typical statistical fluctuation. But normal variation doesn't seem like it would explain 2009's sudden left turn at Albuquerque. My first instinct is to look at two additional sets of stats, BABIP and PA, to see whether we might have luck or sample size issues.

Matsui's BABIP and PA Splits - Last 3 Years

	vs. LHP	vs. RHP	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
	PA	PA	BABIP	BABIP
2007	77	376	0.316	0.342
2008	116	306	0.323	0.333
2009	122	410	0.285	0.289

The first thing that jumps out at me is that Matsui's BABIP this season was basically the same against LHP and RHP, so that isn't the reason why he was so much stronger against lefties this year. It probably does explain his better stats against righties in 2007, but it doesn't tell us much about 2009.

The second thing I see is that we might not actually be looking at large enough sample sizes here. I'd hate for the analysis to boil down to just "need a bigger sample size", though...can anyone else think of any other reasons why Matsui suddenly hit LHP much better than RHP in 2009?

The third thing I see is something that gives me a little bit of hope. It looks like Kazuo had a run of bad luck in 2009. His BABIP was 20-30 points lower than his career average this season, and 40-50 points lower than what he was getting in the two previous years (after he left New York). So unless this dip was related to a permanent injury, we can reasonably expect Kaz to bounce back some next season.

Pitching Reclamation Projects

AstroAndy — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:41:23 -0000

Today, Dying Quail posted his shoestring-budget plan for the Astros offseason, and it included signing a top-tier reclamation project so that new pitching coach Brad Arnsberg could work his magic. I like the idea of going for upside this offseason with our pitching signings...I'm not really up for repeating the Hampton/Ortiz experience next season.

Inspired, I've cobbled together quick profiles on the three pitchers DQ named in his piece: Rich Hill, Justin Duchscherer, and Ben Sheets. There are still some other reclamation projects out there, and some potential buy-low candidates (Noah Lowry, anyone? Jon Garland?). Post your potential pitching deals in the comments!

Rich Hill, LHP

DQ's choice for under-the-radar reclamation project, Rich Hill, is a double-whammy reclamation project. First, he's known as a bit of a headcase, with most recent articles about him mentioning the possibility that he has Steve Blass disease -- the sudden and near-complete loss off the ability to accurately throw a baseball. He had an excellent 2007 with the Cubs, with a 3.92 ERA over 195 innings. He racked up nearly a strikeout per inning that year, and allowed less than a hit per inning (170 H over 195 IP). At one point early in that season, he had put together a string of 18 innings without an earned run. But by the end of the season, it was clear that he was having control issues. As Lou Piniella put it, he was "not the same pitcher that left spring training." His decline was sharp, and in his fifth start of 2008, he failed to get out of the first inning, walking four out of the six batters he faced. The general consensus on the Internet seems to be that Hill's control problems are a matter of confidence.

But the mental aspect of the game is not all that Hill has to work on. In 2009, after being traded to Baltimore for a PTBNL, Hill suffered a torn labrum. His surgery was on August 7, 2009.

Overall, as a reclamation project, Hill seems like he's got limited upside. Leaving aside his most recent injury, in his best major league season, he still put up a 4.32 FIP / 4.17 xFIP. Further, he's only seen 80 innings of major league batters in the last two years. My bet is that some team starts him off in 2010 with a minor league deal and the potential to fill in at the major league level in case of injury.

Justin Duchscherer

Duchscherer was Richard Justice's choice for an offseason pitching bargain. First breaking into the big leagues with the Rangers in 2001, "The Duke of Hurl" spent most of his career as a reliever. He had an excellent season in 2008, however, when Oakland pulled him out of the bullpen and slotted him into the rotation. Duchscherer had a 2.54 ERA, 3.69 FIP, and allowed less than one baserunner per inning (0.995 WHIP).

He battled injuries all through that 2008, however: an upper arm strain followed by a hip strain requiring his second hip surgery in two years. Further, in 2009 spring training, a sore elbow required him to have arthroscopic surgery that sidelined him for a month. The series of injuries and the related rehabilitation, combined with his intense desire to get back on the field and contribute eventually led Duchscherer to take a break from the 2009 season to deal with what his agent called "a very treatable case of clinical depression".

The 31-year old is probable looking for a starting gig, but for me, the ideal signing would be for him to start the season in the bullpen (as a precaution, due to his recent injuries) and be moved to the rotation at the first opportunity. He's been fairly effective in relief throughout his career, so this would not be a nonsensical route. But realistically-speaking, there are enough teams out there starved for starting pitching that Duchscherer should have no problem finding a starting job if that's what he wants.

Ben Sheets

Sheets was a fan-favorite-free-agent last offseason here at The Crawfish Boxes. Like Duchscherer, Ben Sheets can pitch very well when he's healthy. Saying he had a sub-4.00 ERA from 2004-2008 actually understates his ability. During that period, Sheets pitched 839 innings and put up a 3.24 ERA. Heading into the offseason, Sheets had the potential to land a seriously huge contract...anything less than $15M/year over several years would have been a steal. But Sheets's health has always been an issue, and he ended the 2009 season with a sore elbow.

He was reportedly close to a two-year deal with the Rangers in early 2009, but his physical showed that his elbow was in worse shape than previously thought. Sheets ended up having surgery for a torn flexor tendon. The last time Sheets was seen, he was rehabbing up in Arlington and he said he expects to be ready to pitch by Spring Training.

It is speculated that one of the reasons Sheets was so interested in the Rangers is because they have highly-regarded pitching coach Mike Maddux. Maybe now that we have our own highly-regarded pitching coach, Sheets will have more interest in Houston. Sheets will likely be the most expensive "reclamation" signing this offseason.

The Astros, JdJO, and Drugs

AstroAndy — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 02:21:42 -0000

Jose de Jesus Ortiz had quite a lot to say in his blog entitled Sad Sad News for Cruz. A lot of his piece had little to do with Cheo, but one bit in particular caught my eye.

How can you continue to have one of the worst farm systems in all of baseball with more drug suspensions than winning teams in the minors this season and still keep the same folks employed?

Even setting aside the fact that the ratio of organizational winning seasons to drug suspensions is not exactly a "traditional" metric for measuring anyone's job performance, this rhetorical flourish seems inane. The people in charge have taken steps to fix the farm. We fired the guy who did the most damage to the system (Purpura, remember). Ed Wade and Bobby Heck got hired back in late 2007, and they've been working on building things back up ever since. It's going to take a while to get that fixed, and until a reasonable amount of time has gone by, we shouldn't be beating the drums for people to lose their jobs on account of the farm still sucking.

More ludicrous to me is the suggestion that this year's drug suspensions in the minor leagues is adequate ground for someone in the Astros front office getting fired. JdJO has made frequent suggestions lately that guys like Ed Wade and Tal Smith need to be run out of town. This time was the last straw for me, so I thought we should take an objective look at the Astros organization and its relationship with drugs.

Since they began drug-testing in 2005, MLB has handed down 314 drug-related suspensions. Of that 314, only 7 have been in the Astros organization. Those 7 were:

Felix Ramirez ('09, Boldenone, Dominican Summer League)
Mitch Einertson ('09, AA Corpus Christi - second positive test for a non-PED "drug of abuse")
Gabe Garcia ('09, Nandrolone, Rookie League Greenville)
Runelvys Hernandez ('08, Amphetimines, majors/AAA Round Rock, contract not picked up the following season) - his suspension was later withdrawn by MLB because it "did not constitute a violation".
Lou Santangelo ('07, AA Corpus Christi, PEDs)
Carlos Lazu ('07, Rookie League Greenville, PEDs) and
Adam Seuss ('05, High-A Salem, PEDs).

If we assumed that the 314 suspensions were evenly distributed amongst the 30 baseball teams, we would expect that each team would have 10 or 11 suspensions apiece. Even if you count Hernandez's suspension, the Astros still come in significantly under this expected number.

The Astros, since they began drug-testing, have had fewer drug-related suspensions than the Mets had in 2009 alone (they had 8 this year).

Nine teams had more drug suspensions in 2009 than the Astros three suspensions: The Mets, Royals, Phillies, Yankees, Cards, Rays, Tigers, Cubs, and Nationals. The A's, the Rockies, and the Twins each had 3 suspensions this year, just like the Astros. (credit to OregonStrosFan over at spikesnstars for totaling those up). So it doesn't look like the Astros have had a disproportionate number of drug issues relative to other farm systems

On an absolute scale, 7 suspensions in 5 years of testing is not very many. At last count, for the year 2009, the Astros had 287 players in their entire organization, from the Dominican Summer Leagues all the way up to the majors. The 3 suspensions in 2009 represent about 1% of the entire organization. I don't know the figures off the top of my head, but I'd be willing to bet that the rate of drug use in the general population is significantly higher than 1%.

You can read these numbers any number of ways, but it seems like a stretch to reach the conclusion that the Astros, as an organization, have such significant drug-related issues that anyone (particularly Tal Smith, one of the major targets of the JdJO piece) needs to be fired for them. The players themselves who've received suspensions certainly have drug-related issues, and hopefully their suspensions were effective at straightening them out.

And from what I can tell, it doesn't look like the Astros have created a culture of "look the other way". It seems like they're actively trying to discourage not just purposeful drug use, but also preaching caution about supplements and anything else they might think about putting into their bodies. Ed Wade:

"I'm always concerned about it,...[w]e try to educate the players the best we can on avoiding putting themselves in those positions...what we as an industry have to get to the point of zero players testing positive of any type of substances. And basically having zero tolerance for it. That's what the drug program has accomplished. If you see enough of your teammates missing 50 games, I think the message — unless you're a little dense — the message should be getting through."

...

That's a shame that no matter what the circumstances are it's a shame that something like that would occur. That's why we have to continue to educate the kids and make sure that they know that they can't walk to the corner store or go into some health food outfit and think that they're getting something that isn't going to get them in trouble.

Furthermore, the zero tolerance policy appears to be pretty strict. Runelvys Hernandez's agent put out a press release describing the actions of the Astros organization when he was wrongfully suspended:

"However, we're not happy with the way in which the Astros handled the matter." Hernandez was informed about
the suspension when his agents saw the press release on the team's website. "To date, they haven't called the player to hear his side of the story, yet, they've issued several responses condemning him in the media...maybe that's just how they run that organization, but we expected more, and Runelvys deserved better."

Does that sound like the actions of an organization that is soft on enforcing their drug policy? That they pass along the suspension and don't care to hear what the player has to say on the matter? Sounds like zero tolerance to me.

You could point to the guys mentioned in the Mitchell Report: Tejada, Pudge, Clemens. You could point to Andy Pettitte, who admitted to using HGH. You could, sadly, point to Ken Caminiti. But even if everything alleged about these guys is true, there is no evidence that the Astros organization did anything to encourage drug use.

I wish I could say that I wouldn't read any of JdJO's columns anymore, but frankly, I'm too much of an Astros addict to quit. I get my fix any way I can.

And I still don't know what the heck any of this has to do with Jose Cruz.

First game of the Arizona Fall League

AstroAndy — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 22:16:29 -0000

The first game of the Arizona Fall League was yesterday. While farmstros or davoag will likely keep you updated on what's happening in the fall/winter leagues in these threadbare months, it's nice to mark the (mostly pleasant) results of the first game as a reminder that there's still plenty of Astros-related action going on outside of the new manager search. Stat lines after the jump.

Hitting:

Jason Castro: 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 strikeout in 4 plate appearances. He also caught one of two attempted base-stealers from behind the dish.

Jon Gaston: 0 hit, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts and a stolen base in 5 plate appearances (batting lead off). He also played heads-up ball and advanced to third on a throwing error by opposing catcher Buster Posey during his stolen base.

Pitching:

Chia-Jen Lo: 2 innings pitched, 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 walks, 2 strikeouts, 1 hit-by-pitch. 3 ground outs to 1 fly out.

Danny Meszaros: 1 inning pitched, 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 walks, 1 strikeout. 2 ground outs.

The second game is in progress as I type this, and it looks like Jon Gaston is spending the day whiffing at the plate and Evan Englebrook had a good inning with two strikeouts and a flyout.

2009 Rule 5 Draft Eligible Farmstros

AstroAndy — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 16:24:09 -0000

Many of our minds turned to the off-season weeks ago. One of the more exciting parts of the off-season is the Rule 5 draft, which is used to prevent good players from languishing on the minor league squads of teams with heavily stocked farm systems. MLBTradeRumors gives a good, understandable description of how the Rule 5 draft works, but here's a quick refresher as to what players are eligible to be selected:

Players who signed at the age of 18 or under are eligible after 5 years.
Players who signed at the age of 19 or older are eligible after 4 years.
You can be protected from the Rule 5 draft if you are on the major league team's 40-man roster.

A recent AP News article suggested that the Astros might have a tough decision this offseason as to whether or not Koby Clemens should be placed on the Astros 40-man roster to protect him from getting Rule 5-ed to another team. This made me curious, so I went through the rosters and picked out the players who would be Rule 5 eligible.

After the jump, you'll find the full list. I've provided links to the Baseball-Reference pages of the 6 players who will probably receive the most consideration for being protected on the 40-man this offseason. For those of you who don't want to click through, those players are Fernando Abad, Drew Locke, Sergio Perez, Jimmy VanOstrand, Koby Clemens, and Henry Villar.

Quick Disclaimer: This is my first time figuring out this sort of stuff, so you may want to take the list as a work-in-progress until someone who knows better (i.e. farmstros) has had a chance to look it over.

Already On The 40-Man

These guys would be protected if they held the draft today. To be removed from the 40-man, I believe that they'd have to be Designated For Assignment, which would leave them open to waivers from other teams.

AAA - Round Rock

Lou Santangelo

AA - Corpus Christi

Fernando Abad
Brandon Barnes
Evan Englebrook
Jhon Florentino
Drew Locke
Jose Lopez
Nick Moresi
Mark Ori
Sergio Perez
Wladimir Sutil
Jimmy Van Ostrand

A+ - Lancaster

Leandro Cespedes
Koby Clemens
Tip Fairchild
Bryan Hallberg
Casey Hudspeth
Ronald Ramirez
Ebert Rosario
Chris Salamida

A - Lexington

Arcenio Leon
Reinaldo Pestana
Henry Villar

A - Tricity

Pedro Gonzalez
Antonio Noguera
Wander Ortiz
Renzo Tello

2009 Draftee Tanner Bushue makes BA's GCL Top 20

AstroAndy — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 18:38:24 -0000