SB Nation User Blog: AstroAndy

Pitching Reclamation Projects

AstroAndy — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:41:23 -0000

Today, Dying Quail posted his shoestring-budget plan for the Astros offseason, and it included signing a top-tier reclamation project so that new pitching coach Brad Arnsberg could work his magic. I like the idea of going for upside this offseason with our pitching signings...I'm not really up for repeating the Hampton/Ortiz experience next season.

Inspired, I've cobbled together quick profiles on the three pitchers DQ named in his piece: Rich Hill, Justin Duchscherer, and Ben Sheets. There are still some other reclamation projects out there, and some potential buy-low candidates (Noah Lowry, anyone? Jon Garland?). Post your potential pitching deals in the comments!

Rich Hill, LHP

DQ's choice for under-the-radar reclamation project, Rich Hill, is a double-whammy reclamation project. First, he's known as a bit of a headcase, with most recent articles about him mentioning the possibility that he has Steve Blass disease -- the sudden and near-complete loss off the ability to accurately throw a baseball. He had an excellent 2007 with the Cubs, with a 3.92 ERA over 195 innings. He racked up nearly a strikeout per inning that year, and allowed less than a hit per inning (170 H over 195 IP). At one point early in that season, he had put together a string of 18 innings without an earned run. But by the end of the season, it was clear that he was having control issues. As Lou Piniella put it, he was "not the same pitcher that left spring training." His decline was sharp, and in his fifth start of 2008, he failed to get out of the first inning, walking four out of the six batters he faced. The general consensus on the Internet seems to be that Hill's control problems are a matter of confidence.

But the mental aspect of the game is not all that Hill has to work on. In 2009, after being traded to Baltimore for a PTBNL, Hill suffered a torn labrum. His surgery was on August 7, 2009.

Overall, as a reclamation project, Hill seems like he's got limited upside. Leaving aside his most recent injury, in his best major league season, he still put up a 4.32 FIP / 4.17 xFIP. Further, he's only seen 80 innings of major league batters in the last two years. My bet is that some team starts him off in 2010 with a minor league deal and the potential to fill in at the major league level in case of injury.

Justin Duchscherer

Duchscherer was Richard Justice's choice for an offseason pitching bargain. First breaking into the big leagues with the Rangers in 2001, "The Duke of Hurl" spent most of his career as a reliever. He had an excellent season in 2008, however, when Oakland pulled him out of the bullpen and slotted him into the rotation. Duchscherer had a 2.54 ERA, 3.69 FIP, and allowed less than one baserunner per inning (0.995 WHIP).

He battled injuries all through that 2008, however: an upper arm strain followed by a hip strain requiring his second hip surgery in two years. Further, in 2009 spring training, a sore elbow required him to have arthroscopic surgery that sidelined him for a month. The series of injuries and the related rehabilitation, combined with his intense desire to get back on the field and contribute eventually led Duchscherer to take a break from the 2009 season to deal with what his agent called "a very treatable case of clinical depression".

The 31-year old is probable looking for a starting gig, but for me, the ideal signing would be for him to start the season in the bullpen (as a precaution, due to his recent injuries) and be moved to the rotation at the first opportunity. He's been fairly effective in relief throughout his career, so this would not be a nonsensical route. But realistically-speaking, there are enough teams out there starved for starting pitching that Duchscherer should have no problem finding a starting job if that's what he wants.

Ben Sheets

Sheets was a fan-favorite-free-agent last offseason here at The Crawfish Boxes. Like Duchscherer, Ben Sheets can pitch very well when he's healthy. Saying he had a sub-4.00 ERA from 2004-2008 actually understates his ability. During that period, Sheets pitched 839 innings and put up a 3.24 ERA. Heading into the offseason, Sheets had the potential to land a seriously huge contract...anything less than $15M/year over several years would have been a steal. But Sheets's health has always been an issue, and he ended the 2009 season with a sore elbow.

He was reportedly close to a two-year deal with the Rangers in early 2009, but his physical showed that his elbow was in worse shape than previously thought. Sheets ended up having surgery for a torn flexor tendon. The last time Sheets was seen, he was rehabbing up in Arlington and he said he expects to be ready to pitch by Spring Training.

It is speculated that one of the reasons Sheets was so interested in the Rangers is because they have highly-regarded pitching coach Mike Maddux. Maybe now that we have our own highly-regarded pitching coach, Sheets will have more interest in Houston. Sheets will likely be the most expensive "reclamation" signing this offseason.

The Astros, JdJO, and Drugs

AstroAndy — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 02:21:42 -0000

Jose de Jesus Ortiz had quite a lot to say in his blog entitled Sad Sad News for Cruz. A lot of his piece had little to do with Cheo, but one bit in particular caught my eye.

How can you continue to have one of the worst farm systems in all of baseball with more drug suspensions than winning teams in the minors this season and still keep the same folks employed?

Even setting aside the fact that the ratio of organizational winning seasons to drug suspensions is not exactly a "traditional" metric for measuring anyone's job performance, this rhetorical flourish seems inane. The people in charge have taken steps to fix the farm. We fired the guy who did the most damage to the system (Purpura, remember). Ed Wade and Bobby Heck got hired back in late 2007, and they've been working on building things back up ever since. It's going to take a while to get that fixed, and until a reasonable amount of time has gone by, we shouldn't be beating the drums for people to lose their jobs on account of the farm still sucking.

More ludicrous to me is the suggestion that this year's drug suspensions in the minor leagues is adequate ground for someone in the Astros front office getting fired. JdJO has made frequent suggestions lately that guys like Ed Wade and Tal Smith need to be run out of town. This time was the last straw for me, so I thought we should take an objective look at the Astros organization and its relationship with drugs.

Since they began drug-testing in 2005, MLB has handed down 314 drug-related suspensions. Of that 314, only 7 have been in the Astros organization. Those 7 were:

Felix Ramirez ('09, Boldenone, Dominican Summer League)
Mitch Einertson ('09, AA Corpus Christi - second positive test for a non-PED "drug of abuse")
Gabe Garcia ('09, Nandrolone, Rookie League Greenville)
Runelvys Hernandez ('08, Amphetimines, majors/AAA Round Rock, contract not picked up the following season) - his suspension was later withdrawn by MLB because it "did not constitute a violation".
Lou Santangelo ('07, AA Corpus Christi, PEDs)
Carlos Lazu ('07, Rookie League Greenville, PEDs) and
Adam Seuss ('05, High-A Salem, PEDs).

If we assumed that the 314 suspensions were evenly distributed amongst the 30 baseball teams, we would expect that each team would have 10 or 11 suspensions apiece. Even if you count Hernandez's suspension, the Astros still come in significantly under this expected number.

The Astros, since they began drug-testing, have had fewer drug-related suspensions than the Mets had in 2009 alone (they had 8 this year).

Nine teams had more drug suspensions in 2009 than the Astros three suspensions: The Mets, Royals, Phillies, Yankees, Cards, Rays, Tigers, Cubs, and Nationals. The A's, the Rockies, and the Twins each had 3 suspensions this year, just like the Astros. (credit to OregonStrosFan over at spikesnstars for totaling those up). So it doesn't look like the Astros have had a disproportionate number of drug issues relative to other farm systems

On an absolute scale, 7 suspensions in 5 years of testing is not very many. At last count, for the year 2009, the Astros had 287 players in their entire organization, from the Dominican Summer Leagues all the way up to the majors. The 3 suspensions in 2009 represent about 1% of the entire organization. I don't know the figures off the top of my head, but I'd be willing to bet that the rate of drug use in the general population is significantly higher than 1%.

You can read these numbers any number of ways, but it seems like a stretch to reach the conclusion that the Astros, as an organization, have such significant drug-related issues that anyone (particularly Tal Smith, one of the major targets of the JdJO piece) needs to be fired for them. The players themselves who've received suspensions certainly have drug-related issues, and hopefully their suspensions were effective at straightening them out.

And from what I can tell, it doesn't look like the Astros have created a culture of "look the other way". It seems like they're actively trying to discourage not just purposeful drug use, but also preaching caution about supplements and anything else they might think about putting into their bodies. Ed Wade:

"I'm always concerned about it,...[w]e try to educate the players the best we can on avoiding putting themselves in those positions...what we as an industry have to get to the point of zero players testing positive of any type of substances. And basically having zero tolerance for it. That's what the drug program has accomplished. If you see enough of your teammates missing 50 games, I think the message — unless you're a little dense — the message should be getting through."

...

That's a shame that no matter what the circumstances are it's a shame that something like that would occur. That's why we have to continue to educate the kids and make sure that they know that they can't walk to the corner store or go into some health food outfit and think that they're getting something that isn't going to get them in trouble.

Furthermore, the zero tolerance policy appears to be pretty strict. Runelvys Hernandez's agent put out a press release describing the actions of the Astros organization when he was wrongfully suspended:

"However, we're not happy with the way in which the Astros handled the matter." Hernandez was informed about
the suspension when his agents saw the press release on the team's website. "To date, they haven't called the player to hear his side of the story, yet, they've issued several responses condemning him in the media...maybe that's just how they run that organization, but we expected more, and Runelvys deserved better."

Does that sound like the actions of an organization that is soft on enforcing their drug policy? That they pass along the suspension and don't care to hear what the player has to say on the matter? Sounds like zero tolerance to me.

You could point to the guys mentioned in the Mitchell Report: Tejada, Pudge, Clemens. You could point to Andy Pettitte, who admitted to using HGH. You could, sadly, point to Ken Caminiti. But even if everything alleged about these guys is true, there is no evidence that the Astros organization did anything to encourage drug use.

I wish I could say that I wouldn't read any of JdJO's columns anymore, but frankly, I'm too much of an Astros addict to quit. I get my fix any way I can.

And I still don't know what the heck any of this has to do with Jose Cruz.

First game of the Arizona Fall League

AstroAndy — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 22:16:29 -0000

The first game of the Arizona Fall League was yesterday. While farmstros or davoag will likely keep you updated on what's happening in the fall/winter leagues in these threadbare months, it's nice to mark the (mostly pleasant) results of the first game as a reminder that there's still plenty of Astros-related action going on outside of the new manager search. Stat lines after the jump.

Hitting:

Jason Castro: 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 strikeout in 4 plate appearances. He also caught one of two attempted base-stealers from behind the dish.

Jon Gaston: 0 hit, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts and a stolen base in 5 plate appearances (batting lead off). He also played heads-up ball and advanced to third on a throwing error by opposing catcher Buster Posey during his stolen base.

Pitching:

Chia-Jen Lo: 2 innings pitched, 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 walks, 2 strikeouts, 1 hit-by-pitch. 3 ground outs to 1 fly out.

Danny Meszaros: 1 inning pitched, 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 walks, 1 strikeout. 2 ground outs.

The second game is in progress as I type this, and it looks like Jon Gaston is spending the day whiffing at the plate and Evan Englebrook had a good inning with two strikeouts and a flyout.

2009 Rule 5 Draft Eligible Farmstros

AstroAndy — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 16:24:09 -0000

Many of our minds turned to the off-season weeks ago. One of the more exciting parts of the off-season is the Rule 5 draft, which is used to prevent good players from languishing on the minor league squads of teams with heavily stocked farm systems. MLBTradeRumors gives a good, understandable description of how the Rule 5 draft works, but here's a quick refresher as to what players are eligible to be selected:

Players who signed at the age of 18 or under are eligible after 5 years.
Players who signed at the age of 19 or older are eligible after 4 years.
You can be protected from the Rule 5 draft if you are on the major league team's 40-man roster.

A recent AP News article suggested that the Astros might have a tough decision this offseason as to whether or not Koby Clemens should be placed on the Astros 40-man roster to protect him from getting Rule 5-ed to another team. This made me curious, so I went through the rosters and picked out the players who would be Rule 5 eligible.

After the jump, you'll find the full list. I've provided links to the Baseball-Reference pages of the 6 players who will probably receive the most consideration for being protected on the 40-man this offseason. For those of you who don't want to click through, those players are Fernando Abad, Drew Locke, Sergio Perez, Jimmy VanOstrand, Koby Clemens, and Henry Villar.

Quick Disclaimer: This is my first time figuring out this sort of stuff, so you may want to take the list as a work-in-progress until someone who knows better (i.e. farmstros) has had a chance to look it over.

Already On The 40-Man

These guys would be protected if they held the draft today. To be removed from the 40-man, I believe that they'd have to be Designated For Assignment, which would leave them open to waivers from other teams.

AAA - Round Rock

Lou Santangelo

AA - Corpus Christi

Fernando Abad
Brandon Barnes
Evan Englebrook
Jhon Florentino
Drew Locke
Jose Lopez
Nick Moresi
Mark Ori
Sergio Perez
Wladimir Sutil
Jimmy Van Ostrand

A+ - Lancaster

Leandro Cespedes
Koby Clemens
Tip Fairchild
Bryan Hallberg
Casey Hudspeth
Ronald Ramirez
Ebert Rosario
Chris Salamida

A - Lexington

Arcenio Leon
Reinaldo Pestana
Henry Villar

A - Tricity

Pedro Gonzalez
Antonio Noguera
Wander Ortiz
Renzo Tello

2009 Draftee Tanner Bushue makes BA's GCL Top 20

AstroAndy — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 18:38:24 -0000

2009 Draftee Tanner Bushue makes BA's GCL Top 20

Tommy Manzella vs. Adam Everett

AstroAndy — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 19:54:13 -0000

September is here, rosters have expanded, and the Astros are pretty well out of contention. At this point, most Fans (meaning those who are still paying attention to the Astros) really would like to get a good look at what Tommy Manzella can do on the big-league level. With the possibility that Tejada could move to 3B and Roy Oswalt’s call for more defense, it makes sense to see if the young (for an Astro) shortstop can handle the position.

The Round Rock Express play their final game of the season on Monday, September 7, and it’s possible that Manzella could get a call-up soon afterward. The general consensus about Manzella is that his defense is major-league ready, even drawing comparisons to notable glove-artist Adam Everett. This would be an excellent asset for the Astros. In 2009, Miguel Tejada has an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of -9.7. Jeff Keppinger hasn’t been as bad, but has posted a -4.4 UZR. By comparison, Everett’s UZR in 2005 was +15.0.

Everett’s defense saved a lot of runs during his tenure. He saved so many runs, in fact, that he was able to post positive Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in each of his 5 full seasons as an Astro:

Year	WAR	Dollar Value of WAR
2002	2.4	$6.7M
2003	2.3	$7.2M
2004	2.3	$7.8M
2005	2.6	$9.5M
2006	1.0	$4.1M

Unfortunately, Manzella’s glove isn’t the only thing drawing comparisons to Adam Everett…there are also questions about whether Manzella’s bat will play at the next level. Despite his stellar defense, Everett drew frequent criticism from less sabermetric-oriented fans for his lack of offensive prowess. He was a regular part of the "black hole of offense" occupying the 7, 8, and 9 spots in the lineup (usually including Ausmus and the pitcher). The big question with Manzella is whether he’ll be able to rise to the bare minimum Adam Everett-level of offense.

We can compare how Everett did in his time in AAA with the year Manzella had in 2009. And we can compare how Everett did with the Astros with Manzella’s Minor League Equivalency (MLE) statistics, a projection of how his AAA performance would translate to the majors. Here’s a big table with all of those stats in it:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB/SO
Everett - AAA Career	.255	.313	.361	.674	145/249 = 0.582
Manzella - AAA - 2009	.290	.341	.421	.762	39/96 = 0.406
Everett - Astros	.248	.299	.357	.656	131/347 = 0.378
Manzella - MLE	.247	.288	.348	.636	29/98 = 0.296

A quick look shows that Manzella’s rate stats compare favorably to Adam’s relatively steady 4-year AAA career. His BB/SO, though, shows that Manzella is not quite as patient as Everett was at the same stage of his career. This will probably result in a less smooth transition to the majors for Manzella than Everett had. Comparing Everett’s Astro-career and Manzella’s MLE suggests that they could be very similar players on offense.

If Manzella’s defense really is up to Everett level, then we would probably do well to get him up in the majors very soon so that he can start getting used to major league pitching.

Wilton Lopez Earns Call Up

AstroAndy — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 03:16:11 -0000

According to Greg Rajan of the Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Alberto Arias has a sore right knee, and so Wilton Lopez (from the Astros' AA team) will join the Astros in Phoenix for the D-Backs series, just in case Arias goes on the DL.

Now, for scouting reports:

First, let's give credit to our resident prognosticator farm_stros, who predicted this callup nine days ago. In his previous post, farm_stros pointed out that

After four poor months, the Corpus Christi starter has the following line in four August starts: 29 2/3 IP, 14 hits, three runs, two earned, four walks, and 18 Ks.

and from BP's 2008 Prospect Guide

A former Yankee prospect who the Padres signed out of Nicaragua, righty Wilton Lopez is a sinker specialist who pounds the strike zone.

Luis Pujols, the manager of the CC Hooks says:

“Sometimes it’s not just the ERA – it’s what you see out there,” manager Luis Pujols said. “I believe he can do it. He’s throwing the ball well. I believe he can do it (in the majors).”

Lopez was acquired earlier this season when the Padres waived him after spring training. A quick google search of Paul de Podesta's blog found a few brief comments that suggest Lopez throws pretty hard, topping out at around 94mph.

And one final tidbit: An interview with Scout.com from 2007.

If Lopez works out, then kudos to the scouting staff who saw something they could work with and to Corpus Christi pitching coach Stan Boroski for polishing him up.

ESPN Speculates on Coop's Future

AstroAndy — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 21:25:18 -0000

ESPN Speculates on Coop's Future

A National League scout who's spent a lot of time watching the Astros thinks Cooper's strategic missteps have outweighed his positives. It's tough to live down intentionally walking Nick Johnson to face Hanley Ramirez.

"It's like he manages inning to inning rather than three innings down the road," the scout said. "I think he'd be better off as a first-base coach and working with hitters. He's had some good moments, but a lot of questionable moments as far as how he addresses and reacts to situations."

Astros Minor Leaguer Suspended for PEDs

AstroAndy — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 02:02:00 -0000

Astros Minor Leaguer Suspended for PEDs

"Pitcher Felix Ramirez of the Houston Astros organization (Dominican Summer League) has been suspended after testing positive for Boldenone."

MLB has been really cracking down on the DSL lately. Baseball is on pace to have the most PED suspensions in a single year.

Fernando Nieve to the DL

AstroAndy — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 03:27:50 -0000

Fernando Nieve to the DL

Fernando Nieve and his surprisingly hot start (2.95 ERA, but 1.50 WHIP and a 4.84 FIP) have been cut short--he's been placed on the 15-day DL.

New York papers looked like they were playing down the seriousness of it, but MLB.com calls it a muscle tear in the right thigh. It's at least a 6-week rehab.