
AussieBill
Apr 29, 2009 May 23, 2012 13 139
Living in Sydney, Australia and working in environmental remediation
a fan of
Baltimore Orioles
Buffalo Bills
Manchester City
Essendon Bombers (AFL), South Sydney Rabbitohs (NRL), Bowie Baysox (Minor League AA)
RSSUser Blog
Potential ILBs in the Ray Lewis mold
Baltimore Ravens Blog look at ILB prospects in the post 'Possible Heirs To Lewis In 2011 Draft'. While not a high priority for us, its never a bad thing to keep an eye out for the next Ray Lewis!
Shutdown Corner AFC East Review
Buffalo Bills: Getting Clemson running back C.J. Spiller(notes) with the ninth overall pick was a very wise move - there are few better short-term fixes for a line-impaired offense than a guy who can bounce outside with ridiculous speed, play in the slot, and split out wide once in a while. Buffalo addressed those line needs later in the draft with Ed Wang(notes) and Kyle Calloway(notes) - Calloway, who played opposite Bryan Bulaga(notes) at Iowa, could be a real sleeper. Arkansas State end Alex Carrington(notes) has pass-rush ability, but the other feature of this Bills draft should be DT Torell Troup(notes), the Central Florida widebody who was climbing up a lot of boards and will fit perfectly as a nose tackle in the team's 3-4 defensive scheme.
How our guys stack up on NFP
From the National Football Post
Name - Rank (at position) - Grade (out of 8) - General Grade Definition
Spiller - 2nd RB - 6.9 – Becomes a starter during his rookie year…a prospect who possesses physical attributes that will create mismatches vs. most opponents…a featured player on team.
Troup - 14th DT - 6.2 – Has one deficient area of his physical attributes that he can never overcome but has been productive and has the potential to be a starter in the NFL in spite of his shortcomings.
Carrington - 5th DE - 6.5 – Clean player who is inconsistent in his play due to character, alertness or competitiveness…has all the physical tools needed to become a starter…if he overcomes his deficiencies, he will be a star in the league…if he doesn’t, he’ll be a complete failure…NO middle ground.
Easley - 5th WR - 6.5 - See Above
Wang - 13th OT - 6.1 - A clean prospect who will need time and development in order to contribute…physically, this player has all the tools to be a starter in the NFL but has not yet developed the necessary skills due to level of competition, offensive or defensive schemes, injury, grades or lack of playing time…true developmental player who has the potential to become a starter.
Moats - 30th OLB - 5.7 - Has a deficient area of his physical skills that cannot be overcome but has been productive and can contribute as a backup and spot player only.
Batten - 36th DE - 5.5 - Free agent with athletic ability, character and competitiveness.
Brown - 24th QB - 5.5 - See Above
Calloway - 15th OT - 5.8 - Has a deficient area of his playing of physical skills that will be difficult to overcome but will contribute as a backup and spot player only.
UDFA (according to KFFL)
John Destin - Not listed
Naaman Roosevelt - 43rd WR - 5.5 - See Above
Donald Jones - 61st WR - 5.4 - Free agent with size, character and competitiveness.
Joique Bell - 17th RB - 5.7 - See Above
UDFA (according to NE Patriots Draft)
Stephan Virgil - 44th CB - 5.5 - See Above
Brett Johnson - 25th FS - 5 - Camp body.
Antonio Coleman - 43rd OLB - 5.5 - See Above
David Nelson - 65th WR - 5.4 - See Above
Dominique Harris - 27th SS - 5.4 - See Above
Sean Allen - 15th G - 5.4 - See Above
Jorge Guerra - Not Listed
Cordaro Howard - 42nd OG - 5.1 - Free agent with character and competitiveness.
Shaun Rogers charged with fourth-degree felony
For having a loaded handgun in his luggage when he went through airport security. No word on what the punishment will be from either the courts or the league, but if found guilty you would assume at least game suspensions. This opens up the possibility that there will be another team in front of us hunting for NT depth.
Rolling the Dice on Drafting Quarterbacks - EDITED
I have been seeing a few mock drafts that have the bills taking a QB with their #9 pick. Having just read an interesting article about the difficulty in picking a successful QB I wondered what the facts were. Do QBs drafted high do better than ones taken later? Success might be defined by entering the Hall of Fame, winning (or even playing) in a Superbowl, or playing in the Probowl. As information on the first two was easiest to find I started there. I used DraftHistory.com to find information on HOF QBs, Superbowl QBs, and QBs drafted every year. The graphic below shows the average round and overall position a SB or HOF QB was drafted at, and a by round percentage.
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EDITS I,II,III:
Given some of the comments I thought I would tease out a bit more information from this data. So I looked at all QBs drafted and compared that to how many made the SB or HOF. The lead time required to enter the HOF (an average of 23 years) means that HOF caliber players playing recently are not included, so I bracketed my sample population to at 1989, the last draft year of a HOF inducted QB. Likewise, I limited my SB sample population to 1955, the first year a SB QB was drafted.
Having said that, the data does indicate that there is a strong correlation between a successful QB and being picked in the first round. Interestingly, the stats jump in the third round as well.
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| # of QBs drafted (pre-1989) | Avg Player # | # in HOF | % in HOF | |
| Round 1 | 90 | 7 | 15 | 17% |
| Round 2 | 42 | 32 | 1 | 2% |
| Round 3 | 44 | 56 | 3 | 7% |
| Round 4 | 39 | 80 | 2 | 5% |
| Round 5 | 52 | 136 | 1 | 2% |
| Round 6 | 46 | 136 | 0 | 0% |
| 7 and below | 333 | 257 | 5 | 2% |
Finally, I looked at the idea that QBs drafted in the top 50 picks (regardless of rounds) were the most successful. The results indicate that just over 1 in 10 of top 50 QBs make it to the HOF, and 1 in 3 make it to a SB. However, some QBs went to the SB multiple times. In terms of players, only 17% of Top 50 QBs make it to the SB.
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And because I can't let a job go half done, I also calculated how many QBs were selected before a Superbowl playing QB was drafted. This averages out to 2.8 for Superbowl winners and 3.1 for Superbowl losers, higher than for HOF QBs. This makes sense, as you do not have to have the best QB to play in the Superbowl, but a good QB alone is not enough to guarantee a spot. Add to that the fact that QBs tend to go faster in the earlier rounds, it means that poor teams are likely to pick up good QBs as they select first. Finally, you would some of the qualities of a future HOFer to be more apparent. However the fact remains that HOF QBs have an average of 2 QBs selected before them. This indicates that our judgement of what indicates a HOF QB are poor.
And with that, I think I am done editing this post! Sorry for the gaps, the program gets angry when you try to put new spreadsheets on top of the old and you can't delete the space!
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Buffalo's Win/Loss History and Games Played Compared to NFL
After jpheff's post about Buffalo's win/loss percentage I got to thinking about the other teams and how we compare. So I went here to get the data. I got a slightly different number of games than jpheff, but the Bills win percentage was roughly the same - 47.6%. That is ranked 24th among NFL teams. The data includes AFL, AAFC, and postseason totals for all teams. The second table shows the number of games played. Buffalo is ranked 19th, meaning only 13 teams have played fewer games. Interestingly, 78% (14/18) of teams who have played more games than the Bills have a winning percentage while only 31% (4/13) of teams who have played less games do.
Ordered by Total Won
| Win Rank | Team | Won | Lost | Ties | Total Won | Total Games | # of Games |
| 1 | MIA | 400 | 292 | 4 | 57.8% | 696 | 23 |
| 2 | DAL | 455 | 433 | 6 | 57.7% | 894 | 12 |
| 3 | CHI | 702 | 515 | 42 | 57.4% | 1259 | 1 |
| 4 | GB | 668 | 528 | 36 | 55.7% | 1232 | 2 |
| 5 | OAK | 430 | 342 | 11 | 55.6% | 783 | 14 |
| 7 | SF | 521 | 420 | 15 | 55.3% | 956 | 10 |
| 6 | CLE | 491 | 396 | 13 | 55.3% | 900 | 11 |
| 9 | NYG | 638 | 534 | 33 | 54.3% | 1205 | 3 |
| 8 | MIN | 413 | 347 | 9 | 54.3% | 769 | 18 |
| 10 | DEN | 403 | 359 | 10 | 52.8% | 772 | 17 |
| 12 | JAC | 123 | 112 | 0 | 52.3% | 235 | 29 |
| 11 | BAL | 114 | 104 | 1 | 52.3% | 219 | 31 |
| 14 | WAS | 560 | 511 | 27 | 52.2% | 1098 | 7 |
| 13 | IND | 444 | 406 | 7 | 52.2% | 857 | 13 |
| 15 | NE | 398 | 367 | 9 | 52.0% | 774 | 15 |
| 16 | KC | 389 | 360 | 12 | 51.9% | 761 | 21 |
| 17 | STL | 522 | 490 | 20 | 51.6% | 1032 | 9 |
| 18 | PIT | 556 | 522 | 21 | 51.5% | 1099 | 6 |
| 19 | SD | 372 | 382 | 11 | 49.3% | 765 | 20 |
| 20 | TEN | 377 | 390 | 6 | 49.2% | 773 | 16 |
| 21 | CAR | 115 | 119 | 0 | 49.1% | 234 | 30 |
| 22 | SEA | 257 | 276 | 0 | 48.2% | 533 | 27 |
| 23 | PHI | 507 | 548 | 26 | 48.1% | 1081 | 8 |
| 24 | BUF | 362 | 399 | 8 | 47.6% | 769 | 19 |
| 25 | DET | 495 | 579 | 32 | 46.2% | 1106 | 5 |
| 26 | NYJ | 339 | 412 | 8 | 45.2% | 759 | 22 |
| 27 | CIN | 277 | 262 | 2 | 43.4% | 541 | 26 |
| 28 | ARZ | 478 | 680 | 39 | 41.6% | 1197 | 4 |
| 29 | ATL | 273 | 392 | 6 | 41.1% | 671 | 24 |
| 30 | NO | 264 | 381 | 5 | 41.0% | 650 | 25 |
| 31 | TB | 211 | 319 | 1 | 39.8% | 531 | 28 |
| 32 | HOU | 40 | 72 | 0 | 35.7% | 112 | 32 |
Ordered by Total Games (right column)
| Win Rank | Team | Won | Lost | Ties | Total Won | Total Games | # of Games |
| 3 | CHI | 702 | 515 | 42 | 57.4% | 1259 | 1 |
| 4 | GB | 668 | 528 | 36 | 55.7% | 1232 | 2 |
| 9 | NYG | 638 | 534 | 33 | 54.3% | 1205 | 3 |
| 28 | ARZ | 478 | 680 | 39 | 41.6% | 1197 | 4 |
| 25 | DET | 495 | 579 | 32 | 46.2% | 1106 | 5 |
| 18 | PIT | 556 | 522 | 21 | 51.5% | 1099 | 6 |
| 14 | WAS | 560 | 511 | 27 | 52.2% | 1098 | 7 |
| 23 | PHI | 507 | 548 | 26 | 48.1% | 1081 | 8 |
| 17 | STL | 522 | 490 | 20 | 51.6% | 1032 | 9 |
| 7 | SF | 521 | 420 | 15 | 55.3% | 956 | 10 |
| 6 | CLE | 491 | 396 | 13 | 55.3% | 900 | 11 |
| 2 | DAL | 455 | 433 | 6 | 57.7% | 894 | 12 |
| 13 | IND | 444 | 406 | 7 | 52.2% | 857 | 13 |
| 5 | OAK | 430 | 342 | 11 | 55.6% | 783 | 14 |
| 15 | NE | 398 | 367 | 9 | 52.0% | 774 | 15 |
| 20 | TEN | 377 | 390 | 6 | 49.2% | 773 | 16 |
| 10 | DEN | 403 | 359 | 10 | 52.8% | 772 | 17 |
| 8 | MIN | 413 | 347 | 9 | 54.3% | 769 | 18 |
| 24 | BUF | 362 | 399 | 8 | 47.6% | 769 | 19 |
| 19 | SD | 372 | 382 | 11 | 49.3% | 765 | 20 |
| 16 | KC | 389 | 360 | 12 | 51.9% | 761 | 21 |
| 26 | NYJ | 339 | 412 | 8 | 45.2% | 759 | 22 |
| 1 | MIA | 400 | 292 | 4 | 57.8% | 696 | 23 |
| 29 | ATL | 273 | 392 | 6 | 41.1% | 671 | 24 |
| 30 | NO | 264 | 381 | 5 | 41.0% | 650 | 25 |
| 27 | CIN | 277 | 262 | 2 | 43.4% | 541 | 26 |
| 22 | SEA | 257 | 276 | 0 | 48.2% | 533 | 27 |
| 31 | TB | 211 | 319 | 1 | 39.8% | 531 | 28 |
| 12 | JAC | 123 | 112 | 0 | 52.3% | 235 | 29 |
| 21 | CAR | 115 | 119 | 0 | 49.1% | 234 | 30 |
| 11 | BAL | 114 | 104 | 1 | 52.3% | 219 | 31 |
| 32 | HOU | 40 | 72 | 0 | 35.7% | 112 | 32 |
Losman is a Locomotive
Losman's new team is the Las Vegas Locomotives. Chris Brown's story links to photos of the (garish) uniform, but the logo has yet to be revealed...
Chris Brown reports 2 crucial matchups
Lynch and Schobel have tit-for-tat relationship
Marshawn Lynch and Aaron Schobel seem to enjoy trying to get under one another’s skin during practice. Whether it’s Schobel giving a playful kidney punch when the two are subbed out on the sideline, Lynch giving Schobel an extra shove at the end of a run play or jawing back and forth with one another during play. Lynch commented on just exactly what the two are doing out there.
“Schobel is my son,” said Lynch. “He is actually my son. Your son gets out of hand, you have to put him in his place sometimes. But seriously Schobel has been a great guy for me since I came into the league. I pull him off to the side and ask him some things and get some pointers on what defensive ends don’t like, and I found out they don’t like being chipped. So every chance I get I go and give him a chip. And if you all know Schobel, he doesn’t like being chipped. He doesn’t like being messed with.”
Schobel didn’t really care to comment on the games he and Lynch play, but one this is certain, they get each other riled up for practice and that can’t be a bad thing. I’ll have to tell him about the ’son’ comment by Lynch however.
Stroud liking what he sees in Wood
Marcus Stroud and Eric Wood were going at each other in 1-on-1’s several times in practice and against one another in team work. And Stroud thinks Wood has got some game.
“I work mostly against Eric (Wood) and Eric’s doing a great job so far,” Stroud said. “You know he’s only been here a couple days, and in those couple of days he’s showing them why they picked him in the first round and I expect big things out of him.”
Wood held his own against Stroud in 1-on-1’s in practice Saturday, as he was effectively anchoring down and matching Stroud’s strength once engaged.
How Madden 10 compares to Around the AFC East
As MRW has pointed out, the Madden 10 ratings are out. Buffalo was the last team to have their ratings released, and you can download the info as a spread sheet here. And if the ratings seem low in general, here is a page that explains the new approach. Below is the summary by the good people at Madden:
The Bills made a huge splash this offseason acquiring one of the most talented and controversial wide receivers in the league - Terrell Owens (91 OVR). Adding Owens to an already strong WRcorp with Lee Evans (85 OVR/97 SPD) and Josh Reed, gives the Bills the #3 WR unit in football. Throwing to that top ranked unit will be QB Trent Edwards (73 OVR/87 SAC). Marshawn Lynch (87 OVR/93 TRK) and Fred Jackson (77 OVR) form a tough 1-2 punch in the running game. The O-Line is very poor, ranking as the worst (32 of 32) line in the NFL, so you will have lots of work to do in franchise mode to get this unit competitive. On defense, Buffalo is led by their Defensive Line unit. DT Marcus Stroud (92 OVR/96 STR)and DE Aaron Schobel (86 OVR) are two of the toughest run stoppers in the business. The LB unit ranks middle of the road at #23 and the CB unit is a little better at #21 - but both pretty average as far as NFL defensive unit are concerned. The special teams unit is a bright spot for the Bills as the tag team duo of punter Brian Moorman (89 OVR) and kicker Rian Lindell (79 OVR) rank as the 9th best Special teams unit in the football for Madden NFL 10.
Well, its not exactly glowing, and the teams overall rating of 76 backs that up. However, though the Patriots are rated 93, the Jets are 78, and the Dolphins are only 77.
I thought it would be interesting to compare how the AFC Easts self assessment compares to the Madden stats released...
Madden 10 Player Ratings
Madden is releasing its ratings a division at a time. They started with the NFC, and this week they released the AFC North. The overall ratings appear to be the same as the preview posted last month by DT711, but you can download each teams roster in a spreadsheet and look at all the individual stats.
As has been mentioned before, the ratings system has been adjusted so that an average player is now closer to 70 than 80
NFL Power Rankings: Schedule Difficulties
This fellow, Greg Trippiedi, came up with a ranking as to how many more games a team will win or lose based on their schedule this coming year. I think he ranks divisions and compares each team to how the average team would fare against each division. Even teams that have strong intra-division schedules may have easy inter-division, or vice versa
I have to say, I read it a few times and am not entirely sure that it makes sense, but it is worth a post.
The projections range from:
1. Denver Broncos -1.73 wins to
32. Washington Redskins +1.04 wins
and the Bills at the good end:
27. Buffalo Bills +.42 wins
One of the biggest surprises that this researched produced is that DESPITE playing the Pats twice this year, the Bills end up with one of the six easiest schedules in the league. That would make them a good sleeper pick for the AFC Wild Card this year (despite some obvious roster flaws), I would think. Not that I condone gambling, but I do condone making money, if you catch my drift.
Schobel Interviewed in SNT, 24 May
Schobel is interviewed on page 22 of the 24 May edition of Sporting News Today. It is pretty brief article and none of the questions are too diabolical. I was a bit confused by one of his answers...
When asked:
Q: What is the atmosphere in practice like with Terrell Owens?
A: Its no different at all. All I've seen is, he comes in and works hard like the rest of us. Last year, I came in excited by the young talkent we had. This year, he's just another guy who can help make us better
Que?
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