Hey guys, Just wanted to drop in from up north and say congratuations - you've won the toughest division in baseball beating out two teams with the highest payrolls in the sport.  That's a real accomplishment and I'm glad Rays fans have something to cheer about.  Good luck in October!! (I hope the Rays, Sox and Cubs form a pact to kneecap the Angels  -ANYONE but them please...)  I definitely had you guys pegged to be contenters as soon as the name Kazmir appeared on the roster but I thought it would take till next year to really make it all work. 

This is just for laughs and to give props to Pedroia "tha Destroya" for going 4 for 4 two games in a row.   This quote from an article for AP on th game says everything you need to know:

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<Snark> Joe F**k: Hello and welcome back to "Hating Baseball" on Fox.

With his consistent play throughout this World Series Brad Hawpe has captured the notice of not just the Red Sox management and fans but the baseball world at large as well.  Here to talk to Brad about his MVP winning stint is our own Timmy McStoopit.  Tim? Over to you.

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Look guys, we're down three in an ALCS.  So what?! This is how we roll.  You know, to make it interesting and stuff.  Let the Rockies have their sweep.  BOOOOORRRRRRINNNGGG.  No, it's like the Mighty Casey...you spit on a few pitches before you send one out of the park.  Gives the fans something to chew on.  Anyone can come back from a game down, but three? That takes brass balls.  Brass Balls are a major export for our region so I'm not really worried.  We here in Red Sox Nation have a flair for the dramatic.  And not the hot-pink purse with black pumps type of flair no, no, no.  We're talking trip, fall, and accidently knock over the Empire State Building-type flair for the dramatic.  So now comes the fun part.  The winning.  THIS is how we roll.

[Post script:  If we win, I'm a genius and this post is totally serious.  If we lose, I'm snarking.]

[editor's note, by Allen Chace]Speaking of Brass Balls, how bout B Cap here?

The lore of 2004 states that the turning point in the ALCS came when Dave Roberts stole 2nd base.  I think though, that these things have many turing points and that for me that was crystalized by a key moment in game 3.  I don't remember who it was that hit it, Matsui?, but a Yankee home run went over the Monster.  The crowd groaned.  The rout was being finalized and the Sox post-season was done.  Someone out on Yawkee way had just caught a post-season home run ball.  Yeah, it sucks, but hey - worth some money on E-bay or something to show the kids, right?  Wrong.

A moment later the ball flew back over the wall and landed in the outfield between Damon and Manny.  I remember the look on Manny's face.  I know I'm totally speculating here, but for a moment it seemed all the self-absorbed "I'm-not-taking-this-seriously-I'm-just-Manny-being-Manny" crap just drained from his face.  It got serious in a way I've never seen before or since.  "Holy shit" it said. "they're throwing the ball back on the field!"  It was like, until that moment, he hadn't actually really considered what baseball meant in Boston -- to the people of Boston.

To me, that was the statement that changed everything about how rooting has usually worked in Boston.  That we normally HOPE the Sox don't lose. This, however, said most emphatically "We expect you to win."  Whenever I hear people on this blog and elsewhere complain about the Sox I always hear, in some sense, the former.  I don't believe in the power of prayer to change the physical world, but I do believe in the power of positive thinking.  

Whenever I hear Yankees fans I hear the latter.  We should, for once, take a page from their book.

What's it gonna be people?  Hunch over your beers and hope to avoid disaster? Or confidence in the face of adversity?  Go Sox. I mean it.

[editor's note, by Allen Chace]This is the kind of thing that makes me proud to be here, proud to be a Sox fan. Thanks B Cap.

Given all the hand wringing about JD Drew I thought I'd take a closer look at the guy and see what we can expect in the future. In the tables below I've tried to outline why I think JD will be a much better addition come '08 than he was this year.

I looked at his offensive stats this year and compared them with his career best years for each stat and what team he was on when he achieved them. Then I estimated how much his stats would change if he performed at his lifetime average as well as a "breakout year" where he equaled his best performance.

[Note for stat junkies: I didn't correct for games played or number of at-bats in each season. Also I just took a normal average not a geometric average. Yeah, I'm lazy, so you'll have to take these numbers with a grain of salt, as they say. I did try to account for these factors in my qualitative assessments at the end however.]

Two things stand out when you look at Drew's numbers this year versus the past. The first is that in no category of offensive production has JD had a career year with the Sox. All of his best years were in the National League with 2004 as his over career high year so far. Worse yet, he's been below his career average for nearly every measurement of quality for his at-bats this year.

The silver lining in all this is that there seems to be nowhere to go but up. I think that he's due for an above average year as he settles in to the AL and the high pressure atmosphere in Boston. He hits less for power now than in the beginning of his career but is a much harder out and will likely improve in both OPS & Slugging, but more in the latter than the former. Still a lot more run production can be expected absent injury. Below I've detailed what I estimate the likelihood of improvement will be for JDs production based on his past stats.

* Runs: Slight Improvement - JD's performance in this category as actually been fairly close to average for his career, but he'll probably walk more and strike out about the same so it all averages out.

* Hits: Slight Improvement - Definitely running below average here so I would expect more hits and more hits for power.

* Extra Base Hits: No Improvement here really if we judge by history, but that doesn't include home runs.

* HR: Highly likely - Maybe it's just AL pitching, but I think that it seems very likely that we'll see 10 or more additional home runs from JD next year relative to this year. That will likely translate into 2 or more games in the win column too.

* RBI: Highly likely - Since we're likely to see JD up his power numbers, especially in the HR category, expect RBIs to improve by 10 to 20 next season.

* BB: Highly likely - All signs point to JD being a much harder out next year, especially in terms of walks.

* K: No Improvement - JD has actually struck out right near his career average so he'll likely keep going at this rate. It seems like he'll walk more and fly out less to make his at bats more meaningful.

* SB: No Improvement - stealing bases was something he stopped doing long ago. However, as an older, wiser player he might pick better key moments to steal a base.

* AVG: Highly likely - again his batting average is well below his more productive years. More walks are likely as his power numbers improve and pitchers get more wary of leaving one over the plate. There may be a Manny/Ortiz factor here as well. Since pitchers have been able to more readily pitch through those two, the pressure has doubled on JD and company to produce. It's hard to get patient at-bats in that situation. As the David and Manny show gets back on track and JD starts hitting more towards an average of home runs we may see a knock-on effect as pitchers face a more exhausting triple threat. Not say JD compares equally to those two, just that if you're a pitcher and you have to get past David Ortiz and THEN Manny Ramirez and THEN face a guy batting .300 with .450 slugging (25 HRs, 90+ RBIs), life gets alot more difficult. I have a feeling THIS was what Theo was seeing when he spent $12 million.

* OBP: Highly likely - there seems no doubt that JD will get on base more in the future. Again, I think as his power numbers improve pitchers will take a more cautious appraoch with more walks being the result.

* SLG: Highly likely - If we're lucky this guy is capable of hitting 30 home runs in a season. If Ortiz and Manny return to even an average level of HR production next year things will go very hard on opposing team pitchers trying to get through these three. More likely though we'll see Jay-dizzle become a good number two or six hitter along with Youk. If Lowell can stay as active next year as this, we will have an actual offense to be reckoned with.

* OPS: Highly likely - Again, not more doubles but walks and home runs will improve his overall ratio of power and getting on base relative to his number at bats.

Final points - Are you ready to cut Drew only to see him go elsewhere and produce like he did in '04?

The devils advocate would respond to all this with the observation that it's possible that JD Drew is a good hitter in the NL but in the AL he's just not worth $12 million.

I'd like to head off one area of discussion right away - Yes JD makes more than Ortiz but how many people think that Big Papi would get only a $12 million contract when he hits free-agency. NO WAY, NO HOW. So estimate THAT number before you compare their salaries. They just are not at equivalent stages of their careers at this point. Okay, enough -- your thoughts?

<snark>
Dear Red Sox Nation,

It is time for us to engage in what will hopefully be a regular seasonal activity, like going to the beach and BBQs.  What I'm talking about here is honest to goodness gloating. I'm talking about 14 beautiful days in August.  These will be days filled with unvarnished gloating, full of confidence, without a hint of fear or trepidation, nor haunted by the demons from our checkered past.  For as many of you here will have already observed, for 14 Days in August the Yankees will play every division leader in the American League.  Consecutively.  

Schadenfreude - A meal in 4 Courses

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Mike Coolbaugh, coach with the Tulsa Drillers, a AA ball club and Rockies affiliate was hit by a line drive and killed today.   Our thoughts and prayers go out his family and friends.

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