This is going to sound crazy.  I know.  You're going to think I'm nuts.

Thursday was the day I recaptured my Reds' fandom.

I live out of market, and don't get to catch very many Reds' games on TV.  They're still the first box score I check in the morning, but, I don't know.  Over the last year and a half, it's felt like there was something missing for me.  I've been pretty relentlessly negative about all the moves Jocketty's made.  I hated the Rolen trade, hated the Cabrera signing.  Even when they signed Chapman, I spent almost as much time dreaming up scenarios where Dusty would blow out his arm, or where they'd put him in the bullpen "just to get his feet wet," he'd have success, and they'd just leave him there to pitch one inning every other day, as I did celebrating that they were showing a commitment to putting a good product on the field.  Even as they took 2 of 3 from the Cardinals, vaulting them into first place, I just wasn't as invested as I've felt in the past.  Then, Thursday happened.

It's all so obvious in hindsight.

Continue reading this post »

As much as I like what Arroyo's done here, I think he's the guy you have to trade if you want to make a run this season.  Trading prospects for FA's-to-be would be unwise, as this is still a flawed team with most of its core players several years from their respective primes.  It's not worth wasting Jay Bruce's best years because you went all-in on a 2009 team whose best possible outcome is a one-and-done in the playoffs.


But, the division is there for the taking.  You never know how often these kind of chances will come around, so you have to do something, right?

Continue reading this post »

Tim Marchman posted on his blog a Series of Photos showing Hall of Famer Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown going through his pitching motion.  That is cool.  Some enterprising soul took that series of photos, and Made a really awesome video showing what Ol' Three Finger would have looked like in action.  I thought it was awesome, so I thought I'd share.  I know this is probably the kind of thing that should go in a FanShot, but I also know that nobody reads FanShots, and I really wanted everybody to see this.  I hope I'm up to 300 characters.

I was having a discussion on another Reds' board, and came across one of my favorite types of Reds' fans; the "put-the-ball-in-play-and-let's-manufacture-some-runs" guy.  He, of course, hated Chris Dickerson.  I like Chris Dickerson.  He told me that strikeouts were terrible, and productive outs were awesome.  I said that strikeouts are bad, productive outs are slightly less bad, and GIDP's are really bad, and that most of the gains that result from productive outs are erased by grounding into double plays.  He said, "Nuh uh."  I said, "Yes huh."

It actually turned into a really good discussion, with one poster making a great point after I launched into my usual tirade about strikeout rate correlating with Walks, Power, and ever so slightly, run production.  The point was that we need to separate strikeouts from players who strike out.  There's an inherent selection bias in the correlation rates I cited, as players who strike out have to have those secondary skills in order to make the Big Leagues in the first place.

So, this is my attempt to isolate the effects of strikeouts, and compare them to Ball-in-Play outs.  I haven't seen anything like this done by anybody else, so I hope I'm showing you guys something new here.  It's long, and it's got a lot of math, all of which I did myself.  You've been warned.

Continue reading this post »

Here was John's comment from the book on Stubbs:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2007/12/7/143649/622

He's since been promoted to AAA Louisville.  His  numbers across 3 levels:

High-A Sarasota: .261/.366/.406, 21 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 50BB, 82K, 27/35SB in 303 AB
AA Chattanooga: .315/.400/.402, 8 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 11BB, 21K, 3/4SB in 92 AB
AAA Louisville: .316/.381/.579, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 7K, 2/2 SB in 38 AB

2008 Totals: .277/.374/.420, 31 2B, 5 3B, 7 HR, 64BB, 110K, 32/41 SB in 433 AB

Obviously, sample size caveats apply to the AA/AAA numbers, but he looks to be improving the strikeout rate, which was his major red flag coming into the season, and maintaining a nice walk rate in the high minors.   The power numbers aren't spectacular, however, Sarasota and Chattanooga are both pitchers' environments, and he looks to be hitting the ball with some authority thus far at AAA.  He also has a tremendous defensive reputation, with some going as far as to say he could contend for a gold glove in CF today.

So, what are the projections for Stubbs now?  Nice 4th OF?  Ryan Sweeney with speed?  Perennial .380 OBP, 20/20 leadoff hitter?  Does the strikeout rate still worry you?  Do you anticipate any further power development?  Yeah, I know that's a lot of questions.

Just curious on people's thoughts on Stubbs now that the production appears to be catching up to his scouting reports.

While watching Mike Lincoln, in his 2nd inning of work, give up the game-winning HR's in the 10th this afternoon despite Francisco Cordero sitting in the bullpen, the issue of closer usage came up in the game thread.  BubbaFan, like some MLB managers, advocated bringing your closer in for the 9th or 10th inning of a tie game at home.  At that point, if your offense gains a lead, it's a walk-off, and there's nothing for a closer to do.  I advocated an even broader use of the closer; use him in almost all tie games, regardless of home or road situation, instead of the 1-inning, 3-run saves.

Well, that sent me to Cordero's game logs to check Dusty's usage of Cordero against where I would use him.  Obviously, hindsight is 20/20, but I'll try to be objective and look at the game situation at the time to determine where I might differ from Dusty in my bullpen philosophy.

Games I would not have used Cordero where Dusty did:
5/31 (1 inning, 2 run defecit)
4/10 (1 inning, 3 run lead.  Send Weathers, Bray or Affeldt in with that kind of lead.)
4/13 (1 inning, 8 run defecit)
4/16 (1 inning, 9 run defecit)
4/24 (1 inning, 2 run defecit)
5/3 (1 inning, 8 run defecit)
5/10 (1 inning, 8 run lead)
5/24 (1 inning, 5 run lead)
5/27 (0.1inning, 3 run lead)
6/9 (1 inning, 5 run lead)
6/12 (1 inning, 4 run lead)

Games I would have used Cordero, where Dusty did not:
4/8 @ Mil, Bottom 9.  Reds tie it up on a Patterson HR in the top of the 9th.  I would bring Cordero in to hold the tie.  Could have changed the outcome, too, as Dusty went to Weathers in the 10th, and he gave up 3 hits and a run to blow it.
4/11 @ Pit, Bottom 8.  Down 1-0, I'd bring Cordero in 1) because he hadn't worked in 3 days, and 2) to hold the score where it was to see if we can get the offense going.  Ultimately, it didn't matter, as the Reds didn't score in the top of the 9th.
4/12 @ Pit, Bottom 8.  Down 4-3 in the game, down 2-0 in the series.  Bring Cordero in to hold it down, and see if I can steal one.  This one didn't end up mattering, either.
4/19 vs. Mil, Top 9.  I'd have used him for a 2nd inning here.  He hadn't pitched in 2 days, and this was a tie game going to extras.  Weathers blew the lead by giving up 2 runs in the 10th.
4/25 @ SF, Bottom 8.  Down 1-0 at this point, and Cordero hasn't worked in almost a week.  This is a no-brainer.  This one could have changed the outcome, as Harang started the 8th, giving up a run, and turned it over to Burton, who allowed another Giants' runner to score.  The Reds' run in the top of the 9th would have tied it if those other 2 didn't score first.
5/19 @ LA, Bottom 9.  Tie game on the road.  This one could have mattered, as the Dodgers scored against Weathers to win it in that inning.
6/2 @ Phi, Bottom 8.  Down 5-4, I'd have brought him in here.  Wouldn't have mattered, as Weathers didn't give up a run, and the Reds didn't score in the top of the 9th.

So, that's 12 games Dusty used Cordero where I would not have, and 7 games where I would have used Cordero and Dusty did not.  Of Dusty's 12, 6 of them were losses that would not have changed.  I highly doubt that we would blow more than 1 of those 6 big leads he used Cordero for.  Of course, if it got dicey with one of my second tier guys trying to close out a 3-run lead, I could probably bring in Cordero.

On the other hand, I count 4 games where I could swing the outcome by bringing in Cordero in a situation where most managers would not go to their closer.

It's crazy to me that "old-school" guys say they don't pay attention to stats, but let a stat govern when they use their best reliever.  My way, you've used him 5 fewer times at this point in the season, but had the chance to turn 4 losses into wins instead of wasting him for 3, 4, 5, or 8 run leads that Brian B could probably close out, and TheC definitely could.

Who's with me?

(Edit: Dusty used Cordero on 4/19, but didn't stick with him in the 10th.  I read that game wrong initially, and had it on both lists)

While watching A.J. Burnett pitch this afternoon, I had an interesting thought pop into my head; would I be happy with Homer Bailey if he became AJ Burnett?  If I could guarantee that Homer became a 25-start-a-year guy who approximates a #2 when healthy, would I cash in any further upside he has?

Then, I started extending it to the Reds' other young players.  What kind of career would you have to guarantee to make me cash in any further upside?  I thought this would be a game that the rest of the board would find interesting.  The question is, would you cash in the upside that the prospect has in order to guarantee the established player's career (Deal)?  Or would you prefer to go with what the young guy gives you for his career, thinking that the upside of the young player outweighs the guarantee of the established guy's production (No Deal)?

Homer Bailey - AJ Burnett - A 25-start-a-year guy who is a solid #2 when healthy.

Johnny Cueto - Tom Gordon - Several years as a league-average starter, followed by a long career as a very good short reliever.

Jay Bruce - Jim Edmonds - 15 years as a 130 OPS+ guy, but only 5 seasons with 30+ HR, only 4 with 100+ RBI, and only 4 with 100+ Runs.  Textbook "Hall of Very Good" guy.

Joey Votto - Eric Chavez - Several 30-100 seasons at his peak, but finished as a productive player by age 30.

Edinson Volquez - Jack McDowell - Several years of good, consistent production, contends for a Cy Young or two, done by age 30.

My initial answers would be Deal on Bailey and Volquez, No Deal on Cueto, Bruce and Votto.

Much has been made of the struggles of the offense, but at the quarter pole, I wanted to take a position-by-position look at the defense.  JinAZ (jinaz-reds.blogspot.com) and Doug (redsminorleagues.com) have done far better stuff on defense in the past, but I think this works as a quick-and-dirty look.  Defensive stats are notoriously effected by small sample sizes, especially over a quarter of a season, but I think there's something to be gleaned from what the stats say so far.  The main basis of comparison I'm using is THT's Revised Zone Rating (RZR), with bonus points added and subtracted for Out of Zone (OOZ) plays, Double Plays, and errors as applicable.

1B - Joey Votto ranks 9th out of 14 qualifying 1B in RZR. He's really at the back end of the "average" tier, though, as he's only .016 out of 7th, and almost .100 ahead of #11. He leads the NL with 20 OOZ Plays, and also leads the NL in assists. His Double Play numbers are right in line with the rest of the NL, and while he has the lowest FP of NL 1B's, the small sample size means that he's really only 1-2 errors away from average.
Bottom line - The low RZR and FP are concerning, but the huge OOZ and assist totals make him Average, with the potential to be better.

2B - No surprise here. Brandon Phillips is 1st in the NL in RZR. He's 2nd in the NL in FP (Iguchi has 0 errors, Phillips has 1), and his Double Play numbers are right around average. The only knock is that he only has 4 OOZ plays, but given the rest of the numbers, that's nit-picking.
Bottom line - Excellent. No debating that.

3B - Edwin Encarnacion is 8th out of 15 in RZR, dead average. Double plays are average, too. Unfortunately, he's 2nd to last in OOZ Plays, and tied for the most errors in the NL. While this may seem like a poor performance, it's actually a big improvement from EE, as he's ranked at or near the bottom in RZR the last 2 years, while still last in FP and OOZ.
Bottom Line - Below Average but, as noted, improving.

SS - Conventional wisdom suggests that Jeff Keppinger has held his own at SS. Statistical analysis shows that's not the case. He's 2nd to last in the NL in RZR, 3rd to last in OOZ plays (9. The only guy below him in RZR has 26). The FP is solid, but it's tough to make errors when you don't get to any balls. Double plays are significantly below average, too.
Bottom Line - Poor. Kepp deserves an everyday shot somewhere, but not at SS.

LF - For all the beatings he takes, Adam Dunn's defense looks to be improved this season. He's typically among the bottom 5 in RZR with the Burrells and Carlos Lees of the world. So far this season, he's 6th out of 11, but his raw numbers show him in the middle tier with Juan Pierre and Ryan Braun, significantly ahead of Burrell, Lee and the like. He's also dead league average in OOZ plays, where he's typically brutal. He has 1 more error than league average, but interestingly, both of his errors have been on throws this year.
Bottom Line - Surprisingly Average.

CF - Corey Patterson has a reputation as a guy who can really go get them in Center. As terrible as his bat has been, the defensive reputation is borne out in the stats. He's 2nd in the NL in RZR (.003 behind the leader, Rick Ankiel), and has 16 OOZ plays, slightly below average. He has 2 OF assists, and 2 errors, which pretty much cancel each other out.
Bottom Line - Excellent

RF - Ken Griffey, Jr. has lost many, many steps. Last in the NL in RZR, 2nd to last in OOZ plays, 2nd to last in FP. There's really nothing else to say. He's awful in Right.
Bottom Line - Poor. Very, very poor.

How to fix it? That's the good news. The defense has been at least decent at 7 of the 9 positions. RF and SS look to be really dragging us down. I'm told there's a RF at AAA who looks to be solid defensively. He's supposed to be able to hit a little, too. Deal Griffey, bring up The Boss, problem solved. SS is a little trickier. Alex Gonzalez's 2007 rates Above average defensively (Excellent RZR, solid OOZ, poor FP), but we're not sure when he'll be available. I think we could deal Griffey to Cleveland for Josh Rodriguez (SS prospect) and Chuck Lofgren (power LHP). Rodriguez might not be ready yet, but I think he could be a long-term answer. The good news is that the defensive issues are no longer team-wide, and can be significantly improved with upgrades at only 2 positions.

A few interesting splits for your perusal:

I think most people here subscribe to the theory that the most important thing the top of the lineup can do is get on base.  Get to the big boppers, and give them somebody on base in front of them to drive in.  Seems pretty simple, but how are the Reds doing in that regard?

OBP from leadoff hitter: .324
OBP from #2 hitter: .311
OBP from #3 hitter: .304
OBP from #4 hitter: .306

Ouch.

Marty's constantly railing on the team's performance with Runners in Scoring Position.  Lack of situational hitting and what not.  He's kinda wrong, though.  Actually, he's really wrong.

Overall BA: .255
BA with Runners On: .268
BA with RISP: .262

Strikeouts must be the issue, then.  We all know that strikeouts are the debil, and we have a whole bunch of swing-and-miss bastards on this team.  Put the farking ball in play, am I right?

123 strikeouts, 2nd fewest in the NL.

Well, what the hell's the problem then?  If they're putting the ball in play, and hitting with ducks on the pond, they should be bringing runs home in bunches, right? 

# of AB with Runners On: 321, 11th in NL
# of AB with RISP: 183, 14th in NL

Oh, right.  That.

One good way to help yourself out is to see a lot of pitches.  Control that strike zone.  Take some walks, find something to hit.  Get the starter out of the game as soon as you can.

#P/PA: 3.74, T-14th in NL
# of PA's vs. opponent's relievers: 296, 14th in NL.

We're giving up outs, we're not working counts, we're doing exactly what the pitcher wants us to do.  We keep the opposing starter in the game too long.  We're trying to "manufacture runs" (3rd in NL in Sac Bunts)  It's not situational hitting or "selfish swinging" like Marty and Cowboy will tell you.  There's your problem with the offense.

Fay posted an interesting bit of trivia on his blog today.

Who was the first pitcher to defeat all 30 current MLB Teams?  Apparently, this had several beat writers stumped in Pittsburgh for quite some time.

Multiple posters chimed in with Al Leiter.  Fay confirms that Leiter is the correct answer.  One reader adds that Kevin Brown, Terry Mullholland, and Curt Schilling all achieved the same feat after Leiter.

One problem.  That's not right.  Leiter was the first guy to beat all 30 current franchises, but he never beat the Washington Nationals, a current MLB team.  Similarly, Brown, Mullholland, and Schilling all beat the Expos (thus, all 30 franchises), but have not beaten the Nationals.  So, none of those guys have beaten all 30 current MLB teams.

One guy has.  Name him.

Dunn Has Shown He Deserves Long-Term Deal

Highlights:

Those of you who like the "Moneyball" numbers game love Dunn. His OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) annually is among the best in baseball.

He's 22nd in the category among active players. Only three players under age 30 are above him - No. 2 Albert Pujols, No. 14 Miguel Cabrera and No. 20 Mark Teixeira.

I think OPS is much more important than batting average. I also think the most overlooked stat in baseball is games played.

He's a guy who always has been liked by everyone who covers the team on a daily basis, although not so much by some columnists. (Ed. - Whoever could he mean?)

If the Reds win early and Dunn performs as usual - 40 home runs, 100 RBI, 100 runs and 100 walks - Castellini will work out a deal.

The Fay, I take back most of the nasty things I ever said about you.

Today, in our third installment of Fun with Numbers, we'll take a look at another oft-cited criticism of Adam Dunn.  A guy with 40 HR should drive in way more than 100 runs.  After all, there are guys in the NL with less than 30 HR who drive in 110+ HR's every year.  It seems like Dunn never drives anybody in unless it's via the longball.  Stat-heads will tell you that it's difficult to drive in runs unless there's runners on base in front of you, and a guy batting 5th just doesn't get that many runners in front of him.  They'll also tell you how awesome Magic: The Gathering is.  Let's examine just how many opportunities Dunn gets, and how well he brings guys home when he gets them..

First, we'll compare Dunn to his teammates.  I've taken the number of runners that each of the Reds' "run producers" has driven in, subtracted out the number of HR's, and divided by the total number of baserunners in front of them.  This will tell us how often these guys bring in the runners that are on base when they come to bat.  note that I've included baserunners in all plate appearances, so "soft walks" hurt, and I've also taken HR's out, so we're really getting a true ratio of runners driven in to runners on.  Here's the numbers:

Dunn: 106 RBI - 40 HR = 66 driven in / 395 total baserunners = 16.7% of baserunners driven in

Griffey: 93 RBI - 30 HR = 63 driven in / 413 total baserunners = 15.3% of baserunners driven in

Phillips: 94 RBI - 30 HR = 64 driven in / 461 total baserunners = 13.9% of baserunners driven in

Edwin: 76 RBI - 16 HR = 60 driven in / 372 total baserunners = 16.1% of baserunners driven in

As you can see, Dunn got more runners home despite having fewer opportunities than either Griffey or Phillips.  I included Encarnacion because he fared surprisingly well in this study.  But, I think the point to be made here is that despite the strikeouts and low BA with RISP, Dunn does a better job getting runners home than anybody else on the team.

Now, the logical next step is how does Dunn fare against the top RBI men in the NL?  Dunn was 10th in the NL, so let's look at the 9 guys ahead of him.  It may not surprise you that Dunn had the fewest baserunners of any of the top 10.  It may surprise you, however, to see just how many more baserunners these guys got than Dunn's 395.

Holliday 476
Howard 501 (!)
Cabrera 433
Fielder 409 (50HR and only 119 RBI???  WTF!?!?!?!)
C.Lee 490
Hawpe 467
Beltran 432
Atkins 520 (!!!)
Wright 428

Now, let's take a look at what would happen if Dunn were given the same opportunities as the top RBI guys in the NL.  We'll hold Dunn's 16.7% rate of baserunners driven in, and add his 40 HR's for an "adjusted" RBI total.  The numbers in parentheses are the RBI total of the players listed, and the number after the equal sign is Dunn's "adjusted" RBI total based on that player's number of opportunities.

Holliday (137) = 119
Howard (136) = 124
Cabrera (119) = 112
Fielder (119) = 108
C.Lee (119) = 122
Hawpe (116) = 118
Beltran (112) = 112
Atkins (111) = 127
Wright (107) = 111

So, given the same number of opportunities as the other guys, Dunn would be 5th in the NL in RBI; ahead of Lee, Hawpe, Atkins and Wright, and tied with Beltran.  Would anybody have a problem wit him then?  Hell, just swap Dunn and Phillips in the lineup, and Dunn drives in 117 (16.7% * 461 = 77 + 40 = 117).

So, really, anybody bitching about Dunn's low RBI total relative to his HR's is asking him to drive in runners that aren't there.  I find that rather unreasonable.  Dunn's "clutch" reputation is almost entirely based on experimenter's bias and lack of opportunity, and has nothing to do with actual performance.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080227/COL03/302270113/

Highlights:

It helps that Votto is so entirely without pretense he could teach a humility class, and that when they were passing out fat heads to eternally praised ballplayers, Bruce was playing golf.

It's good that off the field, neither takes himself entirely seriously. What seals it is their stated desire to be Reds a long time. We don't hear that a lot much from our sports stars. First, Brandon Phillips. Now, Votto and Bruce. What's going on?

Notably absent: The Reds' best offensive player, a self-effacing guy who's already signed one extension in Cincy, has publicly stated his desire to sign another, and took it upon himself to take Bruce under his wing this offseason.  Let's give Daugherty the benefit of the doubt, though.  Maybe he just forgot.

The Reds are in transition, from a team whose clubhouse revolved around Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn to one filling up with happy-to-be-here players. What that means come March 31 is anybody's guess. But the face is changing. It's looking more like Big Thing and The Champ.

Whoops!  Guess not.  Way to turn an article about 2 exciting young talents into another forum to air your personal vendetta against the Reds' best offensive player.  Stay classy, Doc.

I don't understand it.  The media often laments the lack of spontaneous, fun-loving players in baseball; everybody's just spouting off cliches.  We have a genuinely funny guy who's a damn good baseball player, a great person off the field according to everybody who covers him, and a great teammate according to everybody in the locker room, and he constantly gets shit on by everyone who covers Reds' baseball.  He's signed one extension, wants to sign another, he's provided the best moments on the field (Opening Day 2HR game, GW GS vs. CLE) and off the field (Banana Phone, Ichiro at the cage, "The Next Big Thing") that this town has seen in the last decade.  But apparently, he's not happy to be here.  He's the sullen dick that's been bringing down the locker room all these years.

And, just so everybody knows, I went to saw the Reds when they came to DC last year, and I'm happy to report that Dunn jogged both out to his position and back to the dugout in each inning.  I was watching that specifically.

I've been kicking this idea around for a bit, and with the "Road Ahead" post, I thought this might be a good time to discuss it.  I haven't come up with a good title yet, so hopefully somebody can help me out with that.

It seems like prospect debates often devolve into "Hall of Famer" or "Total Bust."  In reality, there's a lot of gray area; role players, league average performers, once-in-a-while All-Stars; career paths that are rarely projected for top prospects.  The idea would be to take a prospect, and describe 3-4 different career paths based on their skill development.  John did something similar with his Scott Kazmir Crystal Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/9/22/174917/818), but I would look for a more in-depth discussion of the different career paths rather than a prediction of exact stats.

I think it would be an especially interesting feature for a tools guy like Cameron Maybin or Drew Stubbs, as they could carve out a niche being anything from a 4th OF who plays all 3 positions to a perennial All-Star.

Thoughts?  Possible titles?

In our first installment of Fun With Numbers, we explored the prevailing notion that Adam Dunn goes in the tank with Runners in Scoring Position.  What we found, perhaps surprisingly, is that Dunn appears to be the exact same hitter so long as first base is occupied.  With first base open, it appears that the drop in his BA is caused by pitchers' unwillingness to throw him strikes, borne out by the fact that his walk rate doubles in those situations.

Today, we explore another oft-cited criticism of Dunn: He feasts on weak pitching.  Good pitchers eat his lunch.

Keep in mind that some drop in numbers is to be expected when comparing Dunn's splits against  good pitching.  Good pitchers aren't as easy to hit, nor do they walk as many batters as mediocre pitchers.  We'll define the "Good Pitchers" here as anybody who's finished in the top 16 in the NL (or top 14 in the AL) in ERA in the past 3 years.  16 teams in the NL, 14 teams in the AL, that should give us everybody who could stake a claim to being a "Number One."  Yeah, it's quick, it's dirty, but it's the best I've got.  Also, in order to make sure we're getting meaningful samples, and to make my calculations easier, we'll limit it to those pitchers that Dunn has 10 or more AB's against.

For reference, Dunn's career numbers are .247BA/.378OBP/.516SLG.

Here is our list of pitchers based on the criteria above, with Dunn's career numbers:

Pitcher        AB    H    2B    3B    HR    BB    AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS

Oswalt, R    57    14    6    1    3    12    .246    .377    .544    .921

Zambrano   48    11    0    0    6    11    .229    .379    .604    .983

Davis, Do    32    6    0    0    2    6    .188    .316    .375    .691

Sheets, B    28    5    0    0    0    2    .179    .258    .179    .437

Carpenter   24    4    0    0    1    3    .167    .269    .292    .561

Glavine, T   23    7    1    1    1    5    .304    .429    .565    .994

Perez, Ol    19    5    2    0    3    7    .263    .480    .842    1.322

Clemens     16    7    1    0    0    8    .438    .625    .500    1.125

Pettitte       21    6    5    0    0    3    .286    .375    .524    .899

Webb, Br    23    6    2    0    1    1    .261    .292    .478    .770

Jennings     20    6    2    0    1    3    .300    .391    .550    .941

Peavy, J      18    3    0    0    1    3    .167    .300    .333    .633

Capuano     18    6    2    0    1    3    .333    .429    .611    1.040

Suppan       14    8    3    0    1    7    .571    .714    1.000    1.714

Millwood      17    8    0    0    6    0    .471    .500    1.529    2.029

Sabathia     16    4    2    0    0    1    .250    .294    .375    .669

Myers, B      11    3    1    0    2    4    .273    .467    .909    1.376

Smoltz, J     12    2    1    0    1    3    .167    .333    .500    .833

Perez, Od    13    1    0    0    1    0    .077    .077    .308    .385

Willis, Do     10    0    0    0    0    3    .000    .231    .000    .231

Burnett, A     11    2    1    0    0    1    .182    .250    .273    .523

TOTAL        451  114    29    2    31    86    .253    .378    .532    .910

(note: HBP's and SF's were counted in the OBP analysis, but I didn't include them in the table)

Dunn's career line improves from .247/.378/.516 to .253/.378/.532 against the best pitchers he's faced.

Feel free to link here any time somebody claims that Dunn goes in the tank against good pitching.

I've long held the opinion that Dunn's low numbers with RISP have nothing to do with Dunn's ability, and are in fact the result of pitchers refusing to throw strikes with men on base.  I've utilized this as a defense of Dunn many times, but recently realized that I had no statistical basis for this.  I often get on people for providing opinions with no backup, so not living up to my own standard in this case troubled me greatly.  For those who have not read my full opinion, here's a quick overview:

Dunn typically bats 5th, near the end of the run producers, with inferior hitters behind him.  Dunn is extremely dangerous with runners on base because mistakes cost multiple runs; however, he can't go outside the zone for hits.  Therefore, most pitchers seeing Dunn at the plate with runners on base and a guy like Gonzalez on deck would rather throw Dunn a bunch of borderline crap, hope they get a call, and deal with Sea Bass if they walk Dunn.  This will result in a significant drop in BA (because Dunn can't hit borderline pitches), a significant increase in the number of walks (because the pitcher doesn't always get the call), and an increase in the number of strikeouts (because sometimes they do).

Pitchers are most likely to take this approach with first base open; the lead runner doesn't advance, and you get to face a much worse batter.  Therefore, I broke down Dunn's numbers with first base open vs. first base occupied.  Recall that I believe Dunn to be the exact same hitter in all situations, and the only thing that changes is a pitcher's approach to him.  If I'm right, here's what we should see:

With first base occupied: BA/OBP/SLG and AB/HR very similar to career numbers

With first base open: Drop in BA, increase in OBP, similar isoP (SLG-BA; tells you what he's doing with mistake pitches in those situations), drop in AB/HR (because he's swinging less)

Dunn's career numbers: .248BA/.378OBP/.518SLG, 14.1AB/HR

Dunn with 1B Occupied: .258BA/.388OBP/.529SLG, 13.7AB/HR

Dunn with 1B Open: .204BA/.449OBP/.454SLG, 15.07AB/HR

Here's my question - Which is more likely?  Dunn completely changes his hitting approach with 1B open in a manner that leads to 20% less hits and more than twice as many walks?  Or pitchers change their approach to Dunn with 1B Open, giving him nothing to hit and content to put Dunn on and deal with the inferior hitter batting 6th?

This morning, I read Lonnie Wheeler's article on the criticism Krivsky has received for his handling of the last 2 trade deadlines.  I fired him off an email around lunchtime, and I was pleasantly surprised to see a reply in my inbox by 5pm.  Boohiss linked to the article in a diary below.  I would have just put this in his diary, but I told Lonnie I was posting the email, and wanted to make it easy to find if he was so inclined.

Mr. Wheeler-

After reading your column regarding Wayne Krivsky's handling of the trade deadline, I felt compelled to respond.  I am one who holds the seemingly contradictory views that Krivsky accepted far too little for Kearns and Lopez last season, and did not do enough at the deadline this season.  I post on several Reds' message boards, and can tell you that there are many people who agree with me on both counts.  Hopefully, I can speak generally enough to accurately represent the views of a significant portion of your readership.

There is an important distinction that you failed to address when comparing the nature of the objections to Krvisky's handling of the two deadlines.  In 2006, the Reds were very much in the pennant race, and made a misguided attempt to fill one hole on the team by creating two others.  In 2007, the Reds are very much out of the pennant race, and failed to unload assets that held little or no value to them for 2008 and beyond.

Krivsky failed in 2006 in two ways; he completely misjudged the market for relief pitching, and traded away two valuable and productive players without finding adequate replacements.  The Braves needed bullpen help last season, and got it for the price of a C-level prospect.  The White Sox needed bullpen help last season, and got it for the price of two C-level prospects.  The Reds traded young, productive, everyday players still in arbitration straight up for bullpen arms.  That's a severe overpayment given what those other teams gave up.  Following The Trade, the Reds employed the worst offensive SS in the majors (though, in fairness, he was only the 2nd worst defensively), and a hodgepodge of AAAA-types in RF.  The offense went from 3rd in the NL in Runs pre-trade, to 15th after.  Though there were other reasons for the collapse, the loss of offensive production in SS and RF cannot be overlooked.

Krivsky's failing in 2007 is entirely different.  He held onto several assets which could have been valuable for a team in the 2007 race, but had zero value for the Reds in 2008.  Obviously, trading Lohse was the right thing to do.  He was going to free agency, and was extremely unlikely to sign with Cincinnati.  Anything you could get for him was gravy.  However, the Reds sat on Hatteberg and Conine despite the fact that these two were far more valuable to teams in a pennant race this year than to the Reds in 2008.  Conine has already said he's retiring at season's end, and Hatteberg's a bench guy with Votto coming up next year (assuming that they'd pick up his option).  You're guaranteed nothing for Conine if you hang onto him, so why not get anything you can for him?  Somebody would have taken a veteran righty bat with postseason experience off your hands.  Hatteberg is doing nothing but taking AB's that should be going to Joey Votto right now.  He'd be a decent bench guy for the Reds next season, but he's limited to 1B defensively, and doesn't really give you anything that Votto won't.  Maybe Krivsky explored it, but nobody was biting.  However, with his history of preferring mediocre veterans to talented youngsters, I can't give him the benefit of the doubt on this one.  Krivsky had to get rid of Conine, should have gotten rid of Hatteberg, and did neither.

If you've made it this far, I hope I've done enough to convince you that the criticism directed at Krivsky is more nuanced and more valid than "He didn't ask for enough last year, and asked for too much this year."  If you're interested in hearing what others have to say on the topic, I'll be posting this email (and, hopefully, a response from you) on www.redreporter.com this evening.

Go Reds!
BLee

Lonnie wrote back, and offered the following on my two main points:

I'd have to differ on the specifics that you offer. While Royce Clayton provided nothing, Lopez was perhaps the worst major-league shortstop I've seen, defensively. This year, the National tried to move him to second base until Guzman became unavailable. And offensively, his place was ultimately taken by Aurilia, who was the Reds' best hitter over the latter portion of the season. As for Kearns, yes, he is a nice all-around player, and the Reds miss a right-handed bat. But he has never been particularly productive for any extended period. You could easily argue that the Reds' lack of offense late last year was owing not to the absence of Kearns, but to the absence of Griffey and the horrible slump of Dunn. Meanwhile, there is no denying that Majewski and Bray were busts, for varying reasons. But their track records suggested otherwise, to the extent that, while the trade was surprising, it was not indefensible. So my point is not that the trade was terrific, but that excoriating Krivsky for it is grossly one-sided. It simply not fair to do it without crediting him for Phillips, Arroyo, Hatteberg, Ross (at least last year), etc.

Sure, Conine should have been traded, although there wouldn't have been much return. Hatteberg too, probably, to make room for Votto, as you say. Perhaps they will be still. It could easily happen. I'd go further and say that it would have been helpful to trade Dunn and especially Griffey. But again, we simply don't know what kind of deals were available. Yes, I'm disappointed that moves were not made. But I believe the objections are overstated and perhaps premature. And again, if you are going to put Krivsky's feet to the fire for his failings, you simply have to credit his successes -- some of which (Phillips, Hamilton, arguably Arroyo and maybe even Keppinger) have been close to spectacular.

Thanks for your even, sensible explanations. For the most part, I don't disagree. I just believe that there's a substantial other side to it.

I'm composing my email back to him right now.

Before we begin, please take out a #2 pencil and answer the following question:

Your 2006 National League Most Valuable Player ballot more closely resembled which of the following?
A) 1.Freddy Sanchez, 2.Miguel Cabrera, 3.Albert Pujols, 4.Garrett Atkins, 5.Matt Holliday
B) 1.Albert Pujols, 2.Ryan Howard, 3.Lance Berkman, 4.Miguel Cabrera, 5.Carlos Beltran

For as long as everybody on this board has been watching/listening to baseball, the first statistic cited in a player's stat line is Batting Average.  It's easy to calculate: Hits divided by At-Bats.  Everybody knows what the numbers mean: .200 is the "Mendoza Line," .250 is mediocre, .300 is an All-Star, .350 will win you a batting title, .400 is the stuff of legend.  A player's batting average gives you a pretty good idea of his hitting prowess.  The top 10 players in career Batting Average include Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Tris Speaker, Ted Williams, and Babe Ruth.  Looking at simply batting average, however, leaves off some great players in baseball history:  Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle and Hank Aaron don't even crack the top 100 in career BA.

Take a look at last year's NL team batting averages:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=avg&split=0&group=8&season=2006&s easonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg
The teams at the top, for the most part, seem to score more runs than the teams at the bottom.  However, note that the team that led the NL in runs scored was 6th in BA, one spot behind the 2nd to last place team in runs scored.  Based on that, I would venture to say that batting average doesn't tell us everything we need to know about getting runs across the plate.

Let's take a look at the information that we get from Batting Average:

Out < Hit

That is a correct statement.  A hit is definitely better than an out.  However, there's a whole lot of information that batting average leaves out.  Hits come in many different varieties, with some more valuable than others.  Outcomes other than hits and outs, such as walks, can greatly effect run production.  This leads to multiple choice question #2:

Which is the better statement regarding the value of a Plate Appearance?
A) Out < Hit
B) Out < Walk < Single < Double < Triple < Home Run

If only there were a way to create a statistic that provides all the information that statment (B) above does.  On the one hand, we have On-Base Percentage, which includes walks, but gives no credit for hits of the extra-base variety.  In essence, an out is worth 0, and singles, doubles, triples and homers are worth 1 each.  On the other, we have Slugging Average, which is calculated using Total Bases, but gives nothing for walks.  0 for an out, 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer.

But.......

If we were to add On-Base Percentage and Slugging Average together (and call it something crazy like On-base Plus Slugging), something magical happens:

Out: 0
Walk: 1
Single: 2
Double: 3
Triple: 4
Homer: 5

That's a pretty solid valuation of probably 90% of what happens while a batter is at the plate.  Also, look what happens to those NL splits I referenced above:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=ops&split=0&group=8&season=2006&s easonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg
There are the Phillies, 1st in both OPS and runs, and there are the Cubs, 2nd to last in both.  The rest of the teams fall pretty neatly in line, too.

OPS, quite simply, correlates better with Run Production than Batting Average, because it provides more information. For those that hadn't figured it out, in my initial question, option "A" was the top 5 NL players in Batting Average, and option "B" was the top 5 NL players in OPS.  Saber-haters often try to disparage OPS because it has no intrinsic meaning in the way that batting average is simply "average number of hits per at-bat."  They're right, there's no intrinsic meaning to OPS.  It's just a number.  However, it's a number that does a damn good job at telling us a player's contribution to run scoring.  Here's a scale, so that next time one of our resident saber-dorks references OPS, you'll know if it's Pujolsian, or more NeifiPerezian:

.700: Mendoza Line
.750: Mediocre
.775: Average
.800: Above Average
.900: All-Star
1.000: MVP Contender

For any people who don't like sabermetrics, but really enjoyed statistics in high school math, here's a table of r-squared values for various traditional stats compared to runs scored.  R-squared values show a degree of correlation expressed as a number between 1 (perfect correlation) and -1 (perfect inverse correlation).  This table comes courtesy of a previous post from JinAZ on this very site:

OPS 0.91
SLG 0.83
OBP 0.81
AVG 0.71
Hit# 0.68
HR# 0.52
BB# 0.35
K# 0.03
(SB-CS) 0.004
SB# 0.0005

Essentially, OPS tells us 91% of what's going on in terms of run production.  Batting average does OK, at 71%, though not as well as either OBP or SLG.  Interestingly, strikeouts show a slight tendency to have a positive effect on run production although, as Red Menace says, that's a Sabermetrics 300 level class.

Man Mountain is battling some soreness in his right elbow, Red Menace has worked in each of the past 3 games, and Brendanukkah is suffering from "flu-like symptoms."  What that means is that JD has been forced to call in the last man from the 'pen to provide the Purple Prose Index for the week.  As spectators, I only ask that you go easy on me.  I'll likely be assigned to Bat Reporter immediately following this appearance.

1. Milwaukee (4-2)

Milwaukee was only there in negative: no runs, no hits, 12 strike-outs, just three balls hit out of the infield  No word on whether the Brew Crew turned the radio on and turned the radio up, nor whether this woman was singing their song.

The day after they were roasted by Justin Verlander  ROASTED!!!1!!11!!  Roasted by WARMTH!!!!11!!!  Shit, that's not right.  See, I told you I was no good at this.

(The Brewers used) Carlos Villanueva (one run, five hits, five innings) as a last-minute replacement for Chris Capuano, who came up lame.  Sadly, after developing laminitis, Capuano had to be put down just a few days later.

Hart finished the series with five hits (including two home runs) and six RBI in 15 at-bats, Bill Hall was five for 10 with three RBI, and Geoff Jenkins, who hit a grand slam on Friday, was six for 13.  Fuck Bill Hall.  That's all.

2. Pittsburgh (4-2)

The Pirates got rare wins from Zach Duke (3-6, 5.68 ERA), who held the Rangers to two runs in eight innings on Tuesday, and Paul Maholm (3-9, 5.00 ERA), who dry-cleaned the White Sox (one run and three hits in seven innings) on Friday.  Ozzie Guillen went back to Maholm on Saturday to pick up his team, and unleashed a profanity-laced tirade when he was told that they would not be ready until Monday.

On Wednesday, Ian Snell (6-4, 2.63 ERA) pitched the first complete game of his career, allowing one run while striking out seven, but he'll miss his scheduled start in Week #12 due to a burn-blister he got while grilling chicken  No joke here, kids.  Outdoor cooking safety is not a laughing matter.  Those blisters have been known to sting a little when they pop.

With Van Benschoten in the mix, Pittsburgh is the only MLB team that's developed all of its starters through its farm system.  With Dave Littlefield in the GM chair, Pittsburgh is the only MLB team unwilling to open up the wallet and acquire a starter despite the fact that all of its current starters blow nutsack.

3. Chicago (4-3)

For the second consecutive week, Chicago started 4-1 but finished 0-2 and had one of its stars plunked with a fastball after a sizzling performance  SIZZLING!!!!11!!  Sizzling with CONVECTION CURRENTS!!!!1!!!  Goddammit, that's not right either.

Carlos Zambrano (7-6, 4.53 ERA), the glowering inferno, hit a home run and pitched eight innings vs. the Astros, giving up one unearned run and three hits, and then threw a complete game vs. the Padres, allowing one run (a ninth-inning homer) and two hits.  THE GLOWERING INFERNO!!!!11!!  Have I worn out this joke yet?

Lee: "I don't like when a ball is thrown at my head."  After the game, Mike Piazza called Lee to ask if he'd be okay with two balls in the vicinity of his head.  Piazza then called a press conference to reiterate that he is, in fact, a heterosexual.

Houston Astros (4-3)

The starters are also warming up, as Woody Williams (3-9, 5.50 ERA) delivered his best start of the season vs. Chicago (two runs and four hits in seven innings)  Woody's previous best outing had been a 5 inning, 5 run effort on a rehab assignment in A-ball.

Lance Berkman: "Halley's Comet or Brad driving in four runs -- which happens more often?"  Brad Ausmus: "Hey, Lance Berkman, you're a prick!"

Berkman missed the first two games of the series against Oakland due to suspension, and he didn't play on Sunday ("flu-like symptoms"). Luke Scott, who's been troubled with a hip strain, didn't play on Wednesday ("abdominal discomfort").  On the plus side, both Berkman and Scott are now convinced that it is, in fact, impossible to chug a gallon of milk in an hour.

Loretta: "This is a game of streaks, and you've got to take advantage of the times that are good." he said, as a giggling Phil Garner ran through the locker room naked.

5. St. Louis Cardinals (3-3)

Chris Carpenter has begun to throw off a mound, and St. Louis is counting the days -- they should number about 45 -- until he returns to the rotation.  David Eckstein has a little calendar in his locker where he X's out the days as they pass.  So Taguchi has a countdown on his MySpace.

The Cardinals are the only team in the NL whose ERA is above 5.00, and their pitching staff fell to earth with a loud, ugly thud in Week #11.  After all, they were flying so high with their 4.77 ERA just a week ago.

Things were so bad that Scott Spiezio pitched an inning -- a scoreless, hitless inning -- on Friday.  Tony LaRussa's extensive scouting revealed that the Athletics hit extremely poorly against pitchers with stupid chin hair.  That's called playing the matchups, boys and girls.  That's why he's a genius.

6. Cincinnati Reds (2-4)

This is getting embarrassing.  Why must you mock our pain?

Homer Bailey (1-0, 5.73 ERA) continued his major-league odyssey vs. the Angels on Thursday, permitting five runs, seven hits, and three walks in six-plus innings and giving the bullpen a lead it couldn't hold  Not bad, considering the fact that the Angels employ a 6-headed sea monster who swallows sailors whole, and a deadly whirlpool that swallows entire ships.

On Tuesday vs. the Angels, the Reds managed to squeak out a 5-3 win despite striking out 16 times and going one for 14 with runners in scoring position, thanks to the fact that they scored runs via a fielder's choice, a suicide squeeze, a sacrifice fly, and an error.  Or, perhaps, the reason that the Reds went 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position is that they gave up outs to.....not the place, BLee.  Not the place.

Against Texas, David Ross went five for 10 with three home runs and, in the process, brought his batting average above the "Castro Line" for the first time this season.

We've all heard/posted about Dunn's apparent struggles with runners on base.  I've always been of the opinion that the complaints were far more reflective of opportunities and expectations than of actual performance, but I know there are many who disagree with me (some more vehemently than others) in that regard.  To that end, I decided to compare Dunn's performance with runners on base to that of the first guy that pops into your head when you think "clutch."

Derek Jeter

Yeah.  MISTER Clutch.  Captain Intangible.  I think almost everybody here believes that if Dunn took Jeter's approach with runners on base, he'd drive in 120+ runs.  Before you scream, "But Jeter's a leadoff guy," I'm going to correct for the fact that they bat in different parts of the lineup.  I'm not using VORP or OPS or any funny sounding term.  Keep it simple; how many baserunners did you have in front of you, and how many did you knock home?  For the moment, I'm setting aside my argument about Dunn getting pitched around with runners on base.  This counts baserunners in ALL plate appearances, so "soft walks" will hurt you here.  Before you statheads start trying to poke holes in my study, I checked the distribution of runners on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, and it only helps my conclusion.

For his career, Jeter has come to the plate with 4,640 runners on base.  Jeter has knocked in 764 runs with runners on base in his career.  That comes out to 1 RBI every 6.08 baserunners.

Dunn, on the other hand, has come to the plate with 2,360 runners on base in his career.  He has knocked in 383 runs with runners on base.  That comes out to 1 RBI every 6.16 baserunners.

What that means is that Derek Jeter's approach with runners on base brings in one extra runner every FOUR HUNDRED SIXTY TWO BASERUNNERS on board when he comes to the plate.  Carry out Dunn's average over Jeter's career number of baserunners, and Jeter is ahead by 11.  Eleven whole RBI.  For his career.  One per season.

And for every run Jeter drives in with nobody on base (when, of course, it not only isn't "clutch," it actually kills rallies), Dunn drives in 2.2.  Dunn took 320AB with nobody on base last year, and drove in runs more than twice as often as Jeter.

So, if Dunn hit like Jeter with runners on base, he'd get one extra RBI per season.  If he also hit like him with nobody on, he'd LOSE 10 RBI per season.

Come on.  I know the draft is coming up, but Lincecum's "call-up" thread got 87 comments.  Hughes's got 52.  The last Homer Bailey call-up thread (now outside the top 10) got.....two.

Both blogs by the Reds' beat writers have said that Bailey will get the start on Saturday with Cleveland in town.  Jerry Narron said that Saturday's starter is "TBA.  That's 'To Be Announced,' not 'To Be Decided.'"

I'm a Reds' fan, so I'm interested to hear what others think.  Personally, I think Homer fits the profile of a guy who will struggle early, like a Matt Cain.  He's known to be pretty reliant on his fastball as an out pitch, and that's not a recipe for early success.  He has a hammer curve, so I think he'll eventually have nice success as he learns how and when to throw it.  The Indians' lineup drilled him in Spring Training.  Will they hit him again, or will Homer ensure that on Saturday, this one will belong to the Reds?

I've been preaching caution with Homer, both for service time reasons and concerns over whether he's ready.

I'm done.  Get him up here.

He's past the point where he could accrue a full season of service time.  If he's on the roster from now until the end of the season, the Reds still maintain his services for 6 years before he can go to free agency.  He's dominating AAA, and I don't know how much more he can really learn down there.  Opponents are hitting .179 (!!!) against him, and he's mowing down lefties and righties both.  Nobody's giving him trouble.  I was slightly worried about his K/BB numbers, but I read that the organization was forcing him to go to exclusively offspeed with 2 strikes.  I have no doubt that those numbers would be better if he had all 3 pitches at his disposal.  In his last 3 starts, his numbers are:

18IP, 2.00ERA, 1.00WHIP, 12H, 6BB, 22K

Worried about his workload?  Put him on a pitch count; I guarantee he'll get deeper into the game than Milton most nights.  Afraid he'll rely on the heater too much?  Don't let him shake Ross off.  If Ross shows confidence in Bailey's hammer, Homer will, too.  Our #5 starters are 1-9; even if Homer struggles early (which, honestly, I expect), how much worse could it possibly be?

There is absolutely no benefit to keeping him in Louisville any longer.  Let him take his turn tonight, then get his ass on the first bus to Cincy in the morning.  Friday the 8th, in the series opener at home against Cleveland would be a lovely time for the debut.

If a player is called up during the season, how many days/games must he accrue to be given a full season of service time?  For instance, if the Reds were to call up Homer Bailey today and keep him on the roster the rest of the year, would they still get him for 6 full years starting in 2008 (Super 2 designation notwithstanding)?

As you may have heard/seen, the DC Chapter of Red Reporter held a get-together this evening.  Here is a running diary of the night from BLee2525's point of view.

6:14PM - BLee2525 leaves Arlington, VA heading northbound on I-395.  20 minutes to DC and the Red Reporter Get-Together!  Despite a shitty day at work, and the overnight loss of his drivers' side rear view mirror (prick), BLee2525 is excited.

6:16PM - BLee2525 sees 5 lanes of brake lights, slows down.

6:19PM - Still in traffic.

6:26PM - BLee2525 makes it past the first mile on 395.

6:38PM - Cause of traffic - accident.  4 lanes of traffic blocked.

7:05PM - Parking spot found on M St.  2 hour metered.  BLee2525 finds $.25 in change (15 min.) in car.

7:09PM - After brisk walk to The Big Hunt, BLee2525 asks bartender for change for $2 for parking meters.

7:14PM - Brisk walk back to car, meters fed.  BLee2525 turns around looking satisfied.  Some guy walking down the street says "Hey, metering ends at 6:30."  BLee2525 feels stupid; but, hey, it's RR Get-together night.  Life is good.

7:17PM - Brisk, if slightly perturbed, walk back to Big Hunt.  Exchange between BLee2525 and bartender.
BLee2525: "Nats'-Reds' game on tonight?"
Bartender: "I don't know.  What channel?"
BLee2525: "MASN, I think."
Bartender: "I think the Orioles are on MASN tonight."
BLee2525: "Well, shit.  I'll have a Dogfish Head 90 Minute IPA."

7:18PM - Dogfish Head 90 Minute IPA appears at table.  Henceforth, this shall be referred to as The Only Redeeming Part Of The Night (TORPOTN).

7:19PM - BLee2525 calls wife to confirm that the Reds'-Nats' game is not on local TV this evening.  Mrs. BLee confirms same.  BLee2525 takes sip of TORPOTN.

7:20PM - BLee2525 takes sip of TORPOTN.

7:21PM - BLee2525 takes sip of TORPOTN.

7:22PM - BLee2525 takes sip of TORPOTN, looks forlorn.

7:34PM - BLee2525 finishes TORPOTN, cashes out.

7:38PM - With 1:36 ($1.60) still on meter, BLee2525 leaves Washington, DC.

7:47PM - On I-395 southbound, 2 Metropolitan Police officers speed by with lights on.  Good citizens (including BLee2525) pull to right and stop.  Bus driver follows immediately behind officers and cuts across 3 lanes of traffic.  BLee2525 flips off said bus driver.

7:48PM - BLee2525 decides that he needs more beer.

8:02PM - BLee2525 pulls into parking lot of favorite beer store, which closes at 8:00.

8:04PM - BLee2525 pulls into parking lot of grocery store.  After much internal debate, leaves with 6-pack of Sam Adams Summer Ale.

8:14PM - BLee2525 cracks beer, turns on XM radio to check the Reds' score.

8:15PM - BLee2525 says "Son of a bitch."  Drinks.

The DC Red Reporter Get-Together.  If you weren't there, you heard about it!

With the recent call-ups of Hughes and Butler, and impending Lincecum debut, some spectacular early season performances in the low minors are going a bit unnoticed around here.  Bruce was in almost everybody's Top 15 last year after his .291/.355/.516 performance at Dayton.  Moving up a level into a pitchers' league, you might expect some early season struggles from The Boss.  Not the case.

.345/.387/.646
8 2B, 4 3B, 6 HR
Leads FSL in SLG
2nd in OPS
.379/.387/.586 vs. LHP (really his only knock last year)

With graduations and performance thus far, is it time to start talking about Bruce as a top 5 prospect?

IIIIIIIIIIIII NNNNNNNNNNNNNNEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEDDDDDDDDDDDDDD TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHRRRRRRRRRRRRRRREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDRRRRRRRRRRRRRRREEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAACCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCTTTTTT TTTTTTTTTEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

This is something that's been sticking in my craw for a while.  I made reference to it in another diary regarding Alex Gonzalez, but I really think it needs its own diary.  All around baseball, people have gotten ridiculously lazy in coming up with/using good nicknames.  I've been guilty of it a time or two, as have most of the people on this board.  I'm just sick and tired of every player getting either the initials or the "first-initial-first-syllable-of-last-name" treatment, and pretending that it's a nickname.  We're better than this, people.  Of course, this started with Alex Rodriguez, so I guess he's grandfathered in, and when there's some comedic value to that type of name (Felix Hernandez and Scott Hatteberg come to mind), it can be utilized.  However, Brandon Phillips should not be BP at the expense of a much better nickname.  Alex Gonzalez should not be AGon when he also has a better nickname.  Here's a guide to get the discussion started.  Note that I'm leaving off those already on the wiki, as they have been previously Red Reporter-approved.

Brandon Phillips - The Franchise
Alex Gonzalez - Sea Bass
Scott Hatteberg - SHat (as noted above, I'll allow this)
Adam Dunn - He's The Big Donkey, but I just as often refer to him as "Dunner."  We need to come to a consensus here.  Is Dunner OK, or is that just being lazy, too?
Edwin Encarnacion - EE is all we have, but I definitely think that's being lazy.  We need to come up with something here.
Aaron Harang - Harangutan works.
Bronson Arroyo - Brandon.  I hate Tim McCarver.
Eric Milton - Uncle Miltie or Ton.  I think both have merit.
Josh Hamilton - Any reference to The Natural is OK by me.

Some things just go together; peanut butter and jelly, peanut butter and Jerry Narron, and BLee2525 and Hollywood.  From a transplanted Daytonian living as far away from Los Angeles as possible while still in the continental United States, here is your Los Angeles Dodgers 2007 Preview:

2006
Nothing lasts forever in the cold November rain
The Dodgers finished 88-74 last year, putting them in a tie for first in the NL West.  They went 37-19 in August and September, including winning their last 7 to claim a tie with San Diego.  They ended up in the Wild card slot by virtue of losing the tie breaker to the Padres, and were swept by the Mets in the Divisional series.

Like the flower and the scent of summer/ Like the sun and the shine/ Well, the truth may come in strange disguises/ Send the message to your mind
The '06 Dodgers were characterized by balance both offensively and defensively; they were 4th in the NL in runs scored despite nobody cracking 20 homers, and 4th in the NL in runs allowed despite only Derek Lowe exceeding 200 IP.  Having one of the best bullpens in baseball didn't hurt, as Takashi Saito, Jonathan Broxton, and Joe Beimel (yes, that Joe Beimel) all pitched 70+ innings with an ERA of 3.00 or better.  Offensive depth was key as well; only Rafael Furcal and J.D. Drew (did you ever think you'd see his name on a list like this?) played over 130 games.  Rookies Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and James Loney all were significant contributors, as was trade deadline acquisition Greg Maddux.

Only the end of the red will show you my blueside
The Dodgers had the good fortune of catching the Reds during their season-sinking west coast road trip of late August/early September.  Predictably, the Dodgers swept.  However, the beatdowns were not confined only to Chavez Ravine, as the Dodgers also earned a sweep in their one trip to Cincinnati.

2007
Money, it's a gas/ Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash
Expectations are understandably high in Los Angeles following their playoff appearance of a year ago.  A significant roster turnover has occurred in free agency, adding Jason Schmidt (3yr,$47mil), Randy Wolf (1yr,$8mil+option), Juan Pierre (5yr,$44mil), and Luis Gonzalez (1yr,$7.25mil).  J.D. Drew opted out of the final 3 years of his contract to test free agency, and signed with Boston.

Set 'em up, let 'em fall, turn 'em over as we sing...
The offense will attempt to replicate the balanced attack of a year ago.  SS Rafael Furcal is one of the best in the business at the top of the lineup.  His on-base skills and the havoc he wreaks on the basepaths satisfy both statheads and traditionalists alike.  If the Dodgers are bright, 2B Jeff Kent will hit behind him.  If not, Major League out leader CF Juan Pierre will.  Look for some combination of RF Eithier, 1B Nomar Garciaparra, and LF Gonzalez in the middle of the lineup; a solid, if pedestrian group.  Rookie Andy LaRoche and Wilson Betemit will battle to hold down 3B, and Russell Martin is one of the best young catchers in baseball.  While there is no one batter who strikes fear in the hearts of the opposing pitcher, it's a deep lineup with threats 1-8.

Keep it together/ Can we keep it together?/  We're singing a new song now/ And everything starts today.
Similar to the batting order, the pitching staff doesn't have one dominant ace, but will send a quality pitcher to the hill every night.  Derek Lowe will get the opening day nod, followed by Brad Penny, Jason Schmidt, and Randy Wolf.  With Penny and #5 starter Brett Tomko, the Dodgers' staff was voted "Most Likely to Experience an Emotional Meltdown" for 2007.  Schmidt and Wolf have both experienced injury problems in the past few seasons, so health will likely be the key for the rotation.  The bullpen will be similarly dominant this season, again led by Saito, Broxton, and Beimel.  Top prospect and BLee2525 fantasy keeper Chad Billingsley will join this trio to start the season, but will get the first look in the rotation if one of the starters goes down.

Where do you go when you're loney?/ Where do you go when you're blue/ Where do you go when you're loney?/ I'll follow you when the stars go blue
It is worth noting that the Dodgers have one of the best minor league systems in baseball, thanks to Logan White, the best scouting director there is.  GM Ned Colletti seems intent on keeping this a secret, however, as he has signed the following players over the past 2 seasons:
1B Nomar Garciaparra 2yr,$18.5mil
CF Juan Pierre 5yr,$44mil
LF Luis Gonzalez 1yr,$7.25mil
SP Jason Schmidt 3yr,$47mil
SP Randy Wolf $1yr,$8mil
when he already has the following:
1B James Loney, 22yo, 2006: .380/.426/.546 at AAA, .284/.342/.559 in LA
LF/CF Matt Kemp, 21yo, 2006: .346/.414/.543 AA/AAA, .253/.289/.443 in LA
SP Chad Billingsley, 22yo, 2006: 3.95ERA, 78/32 K/BB in 70 IP at AAA, 3.80, 59/58, 90IP in LA

Put me in, coach.  I'm ready to play today
Still in the stable are 3B LaRoche, SP Clayton Kershaw, and SP Scott Elbert.  No word on whether Colletti will attempt to find some "Veteran Presence," "Veteran Leadership," or both in order to block these prospects from ever getting a full time shot at the major league level.

Reds' Connections
A little voice inside my head says 'don't look back, you can never look back.'"
Tomko, that's it.  I, like the rest of you, would rather not relive the Brett Tomko era.

Outlook
California knows how to party/ California knows how to party/ In the cittttaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyy
The NL West should be competitive in 2007.  The young studs in Arizona are getting a shot, the Padres added Maddux to an already excellent rotation, and even the Rockies have some hope with Tulowitzki and Iannetta coming up to join the breakouts from Holliday and Atkins.  The Dodgers don't have a Holliday in their lineup, or a Peavy or Webb in their rotation, but nobody out West can grind like the Dodgers.  There's nary a hole on the squad, and no one injury can deep-six their season, as capable replacements abound.  Look for the experience of the Dodgers to outlast the Rockies and DBacks, and expect another hard-fought battle between the Pads and Dodgers for the division.  Dodgers win the tie break this time, and take a postseason series along with the West.

For some time now, JD has been pimping Joe Posnanski on this site, linking to articles, blog entries and such.  Most people here know I'm a "new schooler" (and am credited as such in the wiki), and it's nice to have a sportswriter somewhere who's not afraid to use words like VORP.  For all you people who weep for us "staheads," afraid that we're missing out on that which makes baseball great while perusing spreadsheets in our parents' basement, worry no more.  I received my copy of "The Soul of Baseball" today.

I know there are a lot of Posnanski fans on this site, and probably even more Buck O'Neil fans.  For those who don't know, Posnanski followed Buck for a year to write "The Soul of Baseball."  Buck was one of baseball's greatest amabassadors.  He was an incredibly engaging personality; his stories about teammate Satchel Paige and Cool Papa Bell were legendary.  He had the following quote after he was ridiculously snubbed for the Hall of Fame last year:

God's been good to me. They didn't think Buck was good enough to be in the Hall of Fame. That's the way they thought about it and that's the way it is, so we're going to live with that. Now, if I'm a Hall of Famer for you, that's all right with me. Just keep loving old Buck. Don't weep for Buck. No, man, be happy, be thankful.

Buck died last October, and never got to read this book.

RR will get a full book report as soon as I'm done.

Sportscenter is running a Josh Hamilton story soon.  And by soon, I mean in the next few minutes.  They ran a promo for it going into the commercial.  They're in the midst of the commercial break right now.  Not sure exactly when, but if you want to see it, I'd recommend tuning to SportsCenter now.  Hopefully, this is 300 characters.