Section 18 Row 64 seats 29 and 30

Please let me know if you are interested in 2 tickets for the season opener.  These are not student tickets -- my seats are in the chair back section of the north end zone. You can access the North End Zone Club with the ticket (and buy beer) throughout the game.  My parking pass for the checkered garage across from Scholz's is included.

Face value ($65/each OBO)

mgumpel@gmail.com

Scarborough is reporting that Texas went almost exclusively with a 4-2-5 defense in the first half of spring practice.  Gideon, Thomas, and Christian Scott at safety, A. Williams and Chykie Brown at corner and the usual suspects upfront. 

The basis for the switch really comes from making Aaron Williams a full time cover corner opposite Chykie Brown and rotating Keenan Robinson down to the Sergio Kindle role.  The switch should also tell you that the coaches feel better about Williams' size/speed combination than Curtis Brown's.

The base 4-2-5 is the best way to matchup against the spread offense assuming that you have great run support from the secondary and can get to the QB with four linemen.  By having Christian Scott and Keenan Robinson on the field at the same time, you can change to something resembling a 4-3 by spinning Robinson down to an edge rusher and moving Scott into an SS/LB hybrid role.  Additionally, Thomas's range and Scott's bonecrushing hits stand to have the best change of creating turnovers in the secondary.

PB's discussion on the Titans use (or lack there of) of one VY (is this trademarked?) piqued my interest to see how some of his fellow Horn alumns have been doing in the NFL.  It also got me to thinking about the Devon Kennard and Jamarkus McFarland discussion. 

First off, several former Longhorns have had notable games recently, and a few of them are having remarkable seasons.  While the Horns have cranked out several first day draft picks, as well as many others making NFL rosters one way or another, who are the ones that are standing out?

Is there a perception that while schools like Texas, USC, OU, Florida and Ohio State have top college talent, the others do a better job of turning out better NFL talent than Texas?  Furthermore could this be impacting Texas' recruiting, primarily among the most coveted 5 star recruits?

Continue reading this post »

A solid overview of the stakes in Glendale as well as 2009. Bumped from the FanPosts. --PB--

Today's news that Colt McCoy will in fact stick around for his senior season at the helm of the Texas offense provides the perfect segue to start to discuss 2009 in earnest. 

Like last year, the next 30 days or so will provide the dust-jacket introduction to next year's team.  What better way to start a title run in 2009 than with the team rallying around itself in face of a BCS hijacking and burying one of next years top 5 teams?  Last year, the Horn's turned the adversity of the A&M game into the motfvating force behind Colt's resurgence and Brian Orakpo's dominance over Arizona State.  However, this year's Fiesta bowl is a bigger challenge than last year's Holiday bowl because the cause of the adversity is not as tangible, and the opponent is a far better one than last year.

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LLOYD
--Come on, give it to me straight. I drove a long way to see you, the least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?

MARY
Not good.

LLOYD
You mean not good, like one out of a hundred?

MARY
I'd say more like one out of a million.

LLOYD
(Duh)
So you're telling me there's a chance?

Continue reading this post »

Enough already with the three way tie breaker discussion.  If all goes well Thursday and Saturday, the Horns will lose a head-to-head tie breaker with Texas Tech and it won't even matter.

Nonsense?

Blasphemy?

No.

If there was ever a time we shouldn't cut off our nose to spite our face, this is it.  So don't give in.  If all goes well, we won't have a shot at the Big 12 title because our aim is just a bit higher.  For all intents and purposes, the OSU-OU game decides which Big 12 south team makes it to the national title game.  a poke win, and Texas is in.  On the other hand, an OU blowout tosses all the logic aside. 

if the calendar was the other way around and Texas played Saturday night while OU played Thursday maybe things would be different.  But unfortunately the calendar isn't on our side.  The Bedlam game will be the last thing voters see before they send in their vote, and multiple shots of DeMarco Murray, Manny Johnson, Broyles, and Bradford dancing in the endzone in Stillwater will trump the 45-35 trump card.

Aside from the deep seeded anger, animosity, and hatred we would all share if OU advances to the Big 12 title game, there is a logic to pulling for the pokes:

Value A.  While I don't undervalue the opportunity to win the Big 12 title, we must all accept that playing for the national title is the ultimate goal of any program.  National title games and their outcomes define players, coaches, programs, and eras.  A birth to the Big 12 title game would certainly be nice, and winning it would obviously put us on the path to the BCS title game - but the downside to a big OU win means the Fiesta for Texas most likely.  If you were to walk by the Horn's trophy case next year which would grab your attention more? - the Big 12 Championship trophy that is inconspicuously missing or the program's 5th National Championship trophy and second in the last three years?  I'd give up the former for a shot at the latter.

Value B. What could possibly be worse than Texas not playing in the BCS title game? Texas not playing and OU playing in the title game.  Stoops would have his 6th Big XII title, and would be playing for his 2nd national title.  Additionally, beating Tech, OSU, Missouri, and possibly the national title would probably overcome all the negativity Stoops has endured after losing several consecutive bowl games.  Mack has started to turn the tide in Texas' favor by winning 3 of the past 4 RRS games, and securing recruiting classes rated higher than OU's.  The possibility of another OU title would derail that momentum, and could impact us immediately.  If Jamarkus McFarland is still debating what school to go to in January, a national championship for OU as well as the prospects of McCoy and Granger leaving would make OU an even more appealing choice.

Now let's consider the most likely, possible outcomes (assuming Texas, Bama, Florida, and Tech all take care of business).

1. Texas crushes A&M, OU crushes OSU - OU will gain around 0.01 points in the BCS standings on Texas because of the computers alone.  Assuming the polls hold steady, this will be enough to squeek by Texas and into the Big 12 title game.

2. Texas crushes A&M, OU beats OSU in a non-blowout - OU will gain around 0.01 points in the BCS standings on Texas because of the computers alone.  Expect to have a sleepless night Saturday along with the rest of us.

3. Texas crushes A&M, OU squeeks by OSU - OU will gain around 0.01 points in the BCS standings on Texas because of the computers alone.  Expect to have a sleepless night Saturday along with the rest of us but feel slightly comforted in the fact that doubt could creep into the minds of some voters.

4. Texas crushes A&M, OSU upsets OU - Even though Tech fans would be making the exact same, logical argument all Texas fans are making today, Texas would solidify it's #2 ranking aheah of Tech.  Texas would hold its computer advantage over Tech by virtue of a better non-conference schedule, and a nuetral field win over OU.  Additionally, USC, Utah, and possibly Florida would act as a buffer between Texas and Tech.  The body of work, complete with a nuetral field beating of a top 3 team in the country, would be enough. 

The worst thing that could happen is that a majority of voters band together and put Tech ahead of Texas on their ballots.  It would take a lot of them to overcome the difference in the computer polls, first off.  Secondly, it would be the right thing to do if you believe that head-to-head match-ups matter.  If that happens, I'll swallow that pill because at least OU will not be there at the end.  The second worst thing that could happen for the 'Horns at that point would be Tech completely and utterly destroying Missouri.  Tech could find its way back into the title game this way.  Once again, fuck it, I'd rather have Tech in the national title game than OU and so should every Horn fan out there.

So three of the four scenarios above afford us Value A (playing for the BCS title) or Value B (OU not playing for the Big XII and BCS title), or both.  The only scenario that doesn't involves you rooting your ass off for OU on Saturday and making an ass out of yourself in the process if OU romps over OSU.  So root for OSU, if they come up just short FAN-FUCKIN-TASTIC, if they win oh well it could have been worse.

Of course, by 8pm Tech will have choked against Baylor and you'll be half drunk by then.

Bumped. A nice overview. --PB--

2009's class will hopefully compete with 2007's as one of the top classes in school history.   However, its not too early to start to think about what could be in 2010.  Here's a run down of some of the state's top talent, and its pretty impressive.

RBs

1. Lache Seastruck, RB Temple -- top RB in the state, but has had some unproductive games and discipline problems this year.  Highly recruited by USC

2. Marcus Murphy RB DeSoto -- He's been under the radar but had an amazing game against Seastruck's Temple team.

3. DJ Jones RB Denison - Is said to be favoring the Longhorns early on.  Denison is undefeated and in the playoffs.  Jones had a big game last week including 3 scores.  Averaged over 12 yards a carry and was explosive in special teams. Jones attended the Baylor game.

Continue reading this post »

While the Texas faithful is preparing itself for the inevitable leap frog by OU should they win out, shouldn't Tech fans be worried about Texas leapfrogging them?

Has anyone ruled out the possibility that a 1 loss Texas team could be ranked ahead of Tech even if Tech wins the Big XII conference?

For instance, assume the following scenario -

Texas wins out.

OU beats Tech, but loses to OSU

Tech beats Baylor

Tech takes the tie breaker over Texas to the Big XII championship game because of head-to-head, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Tech will be ranked higher in the polls or the BCS than Texas.  Furthermore, if Tech were to lose at OU, the degree of the loss would also carry some weight.  My guess would be that if Tech were to win the Big XII at best they would get a unanimous #2 from the voters (remember we are assuming they lose to OU).  So let's run with this:

Tech's scores would be 2736 in the Harris, and 1464 in the Coach's poll (the expected scores for a unanimous #2 ranking in both polls).  Assuming they also come in at exactly 96 points from the computers (again unanimous #2 ranking) Those would equate to a BCS score of .9600 (they currently have .9715).  Currently Texas is at .8798.

So how how much would a Texas team ranked an average #3 in both human polls need to beat Tech by in the computers to nudge ahead? Texas and Tech breakeven if Texas nets an impossible 1.04 in the computer score.  So where's the rub? 

Question the assumption - Does a 1 loss, Big XII champ Tech automatically get in the championship game? If you assume that an 11-1 Tech is not a unanimous #2, the computer target score for a 10-1 Texas starts to move down.  Throw in the possibility that Florida beats Bama in the SEC championship and now voters are sharing rankings 2-4 among Texas, Tech, USC (assuming they win out) and Bama.

You can run all sorts of scenarios here, and obviously its worth considering that the voters may sense an imminent BCS implosion and would default to ranking a one loss Tech at #2 if they win the Big 12.  But, just for the sake of arguement, if Texas (or USC for that matter) were to peal away about 12% of the Harris and Coach's poll voters from Tech then all of a sudden Texas or USC would only need a 0.06 point edge in the computer score to jump Tech.   Take a look at the separation in computer scores between one loss teams -- Texas is 0.4 points higher than Penn State, and still 0.1 points higher than Florida and OU.  12% of voters in the Harris poll is about 14 out of 114, and in the coach's poll we're talking 8 out of 61.

Is this a possibility? Mathematically? Definitely.  And if I were a Tech fan, it would scare the crap out of me.  But I still wouldn't be as scared as the guys in charge of the BCS would be if Tech loses to OU and OU turns around and loses at OSU.

Back in June, PB put out his list of top 10 players on this year's squad.  Here's a recap of what it was as well as stats so far:

10. Tie - Sergio Kindle/John Chiles - Kindle's Stats - 30 tackles, 7 tfl, 6 sacks, 4 hurries

9. Vondrell McGee - 270 yards, 2 tds, 49 yards receiving

8. Colt McCoy - 2285 yards, 21 tds, 4 ints, 412 yards rushing, 7 rushing TDs

7. Roy Miller - 27 tackles, 4 tfl, 2 hurries

6. Quan Cosby - 56 rec, 688 yards, 4 tds

5. Roddrick Muckelroy - 80 tackles, 2.5 ftl, 1 fumble return for TD, 3 pass breakups

4. Ryan Bailey - 5 PATs

3. Deon Beasley - 19 tackles, 1 pass breakup

2. Brian Orakpo - 30 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 3 forced fumbles, 11 hurries

1. Lamarr Houston - 18 tackles, 1 sack, 3 pass breakups, 5 hurries

After nine weeks of the season, the cream has risen to the top.   While I don't believe in bashing anyone for their performances thus far, its surprising to see how some of our "sure bets" have turned out.  Additionally, I think that taking another look at this ranking at the 3/4 mark of the season should drive home the notion of how close the Horns are to putting together an amazing string of seasons over the next few years.   Here's my top 10 as it stands now:

10. Chris Ogbonnaya - 323 yards rushing, 3 rushing TDs, 35 rec, 432 yards receiving, 3 rec TDs,

9. Quan Cosby - 56 rec, 688 yards, 4 tds, several huge blocks

8. Earl Thomas - 46 tackles, 7 pass breakups,  1 hurry, 2 INTs, 3 forced fumbles, 1 blocked punt/FG,  

7. Roy Miller - 27 tackles, 4 tfl, 2 hurries

6. Chykie Brown - 22 tackles, 2 tfl, 1 sack, 5 pass breakups,

5. Sergio Kindle - 30 tackles, 7 tfl, 6 sacks, 4 hurries

4. Roddrick Muckelroy - 80 tackles, 2.5 ftl, 1 fumble return for TD, 3 pass breakups

3. Jordan Shipley - 64 recs, 779 yards, 10 TDs, 1 Punt return for TD, 1 KO return for TD

2. Brian Orakpo - 30 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 3 forced fumbles, 11 hurries

1. Colt McCoy - 2285 yards, 21 tds, 4 ints, 412 yards rushing, 7 rushing TDs

There have been some surprises (Shipley, Chykie), some dissapointments (Deion Beasley), and some questions - like what to make of Lamarr Houston's move to DT.  It's also worth noting that there have been some stellar performances from some not in this list - Malcolm Williams, Curtis Brown, Blake Gideon.  With only 4 seniors on this list, the future is bright.