Just days after the bowl schedule was annouced, Pete Fiutak of FoxSports.com has published his bowl predictions: Fox Bowl Predictions.  The Cliff's notes are as follows:

Continue reading this post »

Bowl season can be a tumultous time of coaching changes (see Texas), bowl wins or losses, suspensions (see Ohio State) and annoucements of early departures. With bowl season in the books, its time to look back and see which teams had the best and worst bowl seasons. 

Continue reading this post »

Part 2 of the quarterfinals match preview.  This time, the focus is on the first of Saturday's match-ups.  The early game pits Argentina versus Germany in a rematch of the 2006 World Cup Quarterfinals match.  The second game has Spain facing upstart Paraguay for the right to play the ARG/GER winner.  Everything you need to know is after the jump...

Continue reading this post »

UPDATE

Holland took out Brazil this morning in what was a tale of two halves.  The dutch managed to stay in the game although Brazil scored early.  Brazil dominated the first half, but failed to generate more scoring changes.  Once the teams came out of the locker room for the second half, it was completely different.  Brazil's Felipe Melo's own goal on a beautiful cross from Wesley Sneijder knotted things up.  Melo was later sent off after stoping on a thigh.  The Dutch scored again on a classic corner kick to the near post that was flicked on to Sneijder for a gorgeous goal.  Holland was able to recover from an early goal and they were able to maintain ball possession in the second half after they addressed schematic issues during halftime.  The only set back from this game for the dutch is that they will be without defender Gregory Van Der Wiel and midfielder Nigel De Jong for the next round because of a 2nd booking.

**************************************************************************************************************************

...and then there were eight.

Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Ghana, Netherlands, Paraguay, Spain, and Uruguay.  Among them 12 World Cup champions and 10 runners-up.  This group of 8 has some of the most intriguing match-ups and story lines you will see at a World Cup. 

I fully expect Friday and Saturday's matches to be must-see television.  If you aren't a fan of soccer, give this weekend a chance.  The best players in the world will be on display playing for nothing less than pride of country in what, to some, is the only shot of their entire career to reach the pinnacle of success in the sport.  I'm not exaggerating when I say that careers will be defined & legacies cemented in just a few days.  Here is a preview of the games, predictions, and more...

Continue reading this post »

Mexico and Argentina renew a heated rivalry on Sunday between the two Latin American soccer powerhouses. 

Will Mexico be able to slow down Messi?

Will El Tri capitalize on Argentina's mental mistakes?

Here's a primer after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

The thought Cotton Bowl conjures up countless memories for me -  some joyous, some disappointing.  However, one memory stands out above the others because it irrevocably changed how I saw athletes.

Continue reading this post »

When was the last time a team went from #1 to potentially unranked in the same year?  I don't know, but there's a good chance Texas will be.  There, I said it.  As shocking as it seems to say this about a team that was ranked #1 for a week this year, its a question that has to be asked.  More importantly, should we reevaluate our expecations of the program over the next several years?

Continue reading this post »

A few notes heading into spring ball...

Continue reading this post »

Bumped. Excellent stuff from BMG. More on the confirmed attendees for the February Junior Days as they approach, possibly including an attempt at a Big Board for 2011. Of course, the Longhorns still have two major targets on the board for 2010 in Jackson Jeffcoat and Jordan Hicks, so the current recruiting class could be far from complete. --GoBR--

Although the ink won't be dry on the 2010 recruiting class for another few weeks, it's never too early to look forward to junior days to get a peak at the next class.  Last year, Texas got commitments from its top targets either at or in the weeks following junior day.  In addition, Jordan Hicks made it down for one of them and Texas has been one of his favorites ever since.  Here's a quick look at those players that are planning to attend one of the two junior camps in February.

Continue reading this post »

Section 18 Row 64 seats 29 and 30

Please let me know if you are interested in 2 tickets for the season opener.  These are not student tickets -- my seats are in the chair back section of the north end zone. You can access the North End Zone Club with the ticket (and buy beer) throughout the game.  My parking pass for the checkered garage across from Scholz's is included.

Face value ($65/each OBO)

mgumpel@gmail.com

Scarborough is reporting that Texas went almost exclusively with a 4-2-5 defense in the first half of spring practice.  Gideon, Thomas, and Christian Scott at safety, A. Williams and Chykie Brown at corner and the usual suspects upfront. 

The basis for the switch really comes from making Aaron Williams a full time cover corner opposite Chykie Brown and rotating Keenan Robinson down to the Sergio Kindle role.  The switch should also tell you that the coaches feel better about Williams' size/speed combination than Curtis Brown's.

The base 4-2-5 is the best way to matchup against the spread offense assuming that you have great run support from the secondary and can get to the QB with four linemen.  By having Christian Scott and Keenan Robinson on the field at the same time, you can change to something resembling a 4-3 by spinning Robinson down to an edge rusher and moving Scott into an SS/LB hybrid role.  Additionally, Thomas's range and Scott's bonecrushing hits stand to have the best change of creating turnovers in the secondary.

PB's discussion on the Titans use (or lack there of) of one VY (is this trademarked?) piqued my interest to see how some of his fellow Horn alumns have been doing in the NFL.  It also got me to thinking about the Devon Kennard and Jamarkus McFarland discussion. 

First off, several former Longhorns have had notable games recently, and a few of them are having remarkable seasons.  While the Horns have cranked out several first day draft picks, as well as many others making NFL rosters one way or another, who are the ones that are standing out?

Is there a perception that while schools like Texas, USC, OU, Florida and Ohio State have top college talent, the others do a better job of turning out better NFL talent than Texas?  Furthermore could this be impacting Texas' recruiting, primarily among the most coveted 5 star recruits?

Continue reading this post »

A solid overview of the stakes in Glendale as well as 2009. Bumped from the FanPosts. --PB--

Today's news that Colt McCoy will in fact stick around for his senior season at the helm of the Texas offense provides the perfect segue to start to discuss 2009 in earnest. 

Like last year, the next 30 days or so will provide the dust-jacket introduction to next year's team.  What better way to start a title run in 2009 than with the team rallying around itself in face of a BCS hijacking and burying one of next years top 5 teams?  Last year, the Horn's turned the adversity of the A&M game into the motfvating force behind Colt's resurgence and Brian Orakpo's dominance over Arizona State.  However, this year's Fiesta bowl is a bigger challenge than last year's Holiday bowl because the cause of the adversity is not as tangible, and the opponent is a far better one than last year.

Continue reading this post »

LLOYD
--Come on, give it to me straight. I drove a long way to see you, the least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?

MARY
Not good.

LLOYD
You mean not good, like one out of a hundred?

MARY
I'd say more like one out of a million.

LLOYD
(Duh)
So you're telling me there's a chance?

Continue reading this post »

Enough already with the three way tie breaker discussion.  If all goes well Thursday and Saturday, the Horns will lose a head-to-head tie breaker with Texas Tech and it won't even matter.

Nonsense?

Blasphemy?

No.

If there was ever a time we shouldn't cut off our nose to spite our face, this is it.  So don't give in.  If all goes well, we won't have a shot at the Big 12 title because our aim is just a bit higher.  For all intents and purposes, the OSU-OU game decides which Big 12 south team makes it to the national title game.  a poke win, and Texas is in.  On the other hand, an OU blowout tosses all the logic aside. 

if the calendar was the other way around and Texas played Saturday night while OU played Thursday maybe things would be different.  But unfortunately the calendar isn't on our side.  The Bedlam game will be the last thing voters see before they send in their vote, and multiple shots of DeMarco Murray, Manny Johnson, Broyles, and Bradford dancing in the endzone in Stillwater will trump the 45-35 trump card.

Aside from the deep seeded anger, animosity, and hatred we would all share if OU advances to the Big 12 title game, there is a logic to pulling for the pokes:

Value A.  While I don't undervalue the opportunity to win the Big 12 title, we must all accept that playing for the national title is the ultimate goal of any program.  National title games and their outcomes define players, coaches, programs, and eras.  A birth to the Big 12 title game would certainly be nice, and winning it would obviously put us on the path to the BCS title game - but the downside to a big OU win means the Fiesta for Texas most likely.  If you were to walk by the Horn's trophy case next year which would grab your attention more? - the Big 12 Championship trophy that is inconspicuously missing or the program's 5th National Championship trophy and second in the last three years?  I'd give up the former for a shot at the latter.

Value B. What could possibly be worse than Texas not playing in the BCS title game? Texas not playing and OU playing in the title game.  Stoops would have his 6th Big XII title, and would be playing for his 2nd national title.  Additionally, beating Tech, OSU, Missouri, and possibly the national title would probably overcome all the negativity Stoops has endured after losing several consecutive bowl games.  Mack has started to turn the tide in Texas' favor by winning 3 of the past 4 RRS games, and securing recruiting classes rated higher than OU's.  The possibility of another OU title would derail that momentum, and could impact us immediately.  If Jamarkus McFarland is still debating what school to go to in January, a national championship for OU as well as the prospects of McCoy and Granger leaving would make OU an even more appealing choice.

Now let's consider the most likely, possible outcomes (assuming Texas, Bama, Florida, and Tech all take care of business).

1. Texas crushes A&M, OU crushes OSU - OU will gain around 0.01 points in the BCS standings on Texas because of the computers alone.  Assuming the polls hold steady, this will be enough to squeek by Texas and into the Big 12 title game.

2. Texas crushes A&M, OU beats OSU in a non-blowout - OU will gain around 0.01 points in the BCS standings on Texas because of the computers alone.  Expect to have a sleepless night Saturday along with the rest of us.

3. Texas crushes A&M, OU squeeks by OSU - OU will gain around 0.01 points in the BCS standings on Texas because of the computers alone.  Expect to have a sleepless night Saturday along with the rest of us but feel slightly comforted in the fact that doubt could creep into the minds of some voters.

4. Texas crushes A&M, OSU upsets OU - Even though Tech fans would be making the exact same, logical argument all Texas fans are making today, Texas would solidify it's #2 ranking aheah of Tech.  Texas would hold its computer advantage over Tech by virtue of a better non-conference schedule, and a nuetral field win over OU.  Additionally, USC, Utah, and possibly Florida would act as a buffer between Texas and Tech.  The body of work, complete with a nuetral field beating of a top 3 team in the country, would be enough. 

The worst thing that could happen is that a majority of voters band together and put Tech ahead of Texas on their ballots.  It would take a lot of them to overcome the difference in the computer polls, first off.  Secondly, it would be the right thing to do if you believe that head-to-head match-ups matter.  If that happens, I'll swallow that pill because at least OU will not be there at the end.  The second worst thing that could happen for the 'Horns at that point would be Tech completely and utterly destroying Missouri.  Tech could find its way back into the title game this way.  Once again, fuck it, I'd rather have Tech in the national title game than OU and so should every Horn fan out there.

So three of the four scenarios above afford us Value A (playing for the BCS title) or Value B (OU not playing for the Big XII and BCS title), or both.  The only scenario that doesn't involves you rooting your ass off for OU on Saturday and making an ass out of yourself in the process if OU romps over OSU.  So root for OSU, if they come up just short FAN-FUCKIN-TASTIC, if they win oh well it could have been worse.

Of course, by 8pm Tech will have choked against Baylor and you'll be half drunk by then.

Bumped. A nice overview. --PB--

2009's class will hopefully compete with 2007's as one of the top classes in school history.   However, its not too early to start to think about what could be in 2010.  Here's a run down of some of the state's top talent, and its pretty impressive.

RBs

1. Lache Seastruck, RB Temple -- top RB in the state, but has had some unproductive games and discipline problems this year.  Highly recruited by USC

2. Marcus Murphy RB DeSoto -- He's been under the radar but had an amazing game against Seastruck's Temple team.

3. DJ Jones RB Denison - Is said to be favoring the Longhorns early on.  Denison is undefeated and in the playoffs.  Jones had a big game last week including 3 scores.  Averaged over 12 yards a carry and was explosive in special teams. Jones attended the Baylor game.

Continue reading this post »

While the Texas faithful is preparing itself for the inevitable leap frog by OU should they win out, shouldn't Tech fans be worried about Texas leapfrogging them?

Has anyone ruled out the possibility that a 1 loss Texas team could be ranked ahead of Tech even if Tech wins the Big XII conference?

For instance, assume the following scenario -

Texas wins out.

OU beats Tech, but loses to OSU

Tech beats Baylor

Tech takes the tie breaker over Texas to the Big XII championship game because of head-to-head, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Tech will be ranked higher in the polls or the BCS than Texas.  Furthermore, if Tech were to lose at OU, the degree of the loss would also carry some weight.  My guess would be that if Tech were to win the Big XII at best they would get a unanimous #2 from the voters (remember we are assuming they lose to OU).  So let's run with this:

Tech's scores would be 2736 in the Harris, and 1464 in the Coach's poll (the expected scores for a unanimous #2 ranking in both polls).  Assuming they also come in at exactly 96 points from the computers (again unanimous #2 ranking) Those would equate to a BCS score of .9600 (they currently have .9715).  Currently Texas is at .8798.

So how how much would a Texas team ranked an average #3 in both human polls need to beat Tech by in the computers to nudge ahead? Texas and Tech breakeven if Texas nets an impossible 1.04 in the computer score.  So where's the rub? 

Question the assumption - Does a 1 loss, Big XII champ Tech automatically get in the championship game? If you assume that an 11-1 Tech is not a unanimous #2, the computer target score for a 10-1 Texas starts to move down.  Throw in the possibility that Florida beats Bama in the SEC championship and now voters are sharing rankings 2-4 among Texas, Tech, USC (assuming they win out) and Bama.

You can run all sorts of scenarios here, and obviously its worth considering that the voters may sense an imminent BCS implosion and would default to ranking a one loss Tech at #2 if they win the Big 12.  But, just for the sake of arguement, if Texas (or USC for that matter) were to peal away about 12% of the Harris and Coach's poll voters from Tech then all of a sudden Texas or USC would only need a 0.06 point edge in the computer score to jump Tech.   Take a look at the separation in computer scores between one loss teams -- Texas is 0.4 points higher than Penn State, and still 0.1 points higher than Florida and OU.  12% of voters in the Harris poll is about 14 out of 114, and in the coach's poll we're talking 8 out of 61.

Is this a possibility? Mathematically? Definitely.  And if I were a Tech fan, it would scare the crap out of me.  But I still wouldn't be as scared as the guys in charge of the BCS would be if Tech loses to OU and OU turns around and loses at OSU.

Back in June, PB put out his list of top 10 players on this year's squad.  Here's a recap of what it was as well as stats so far:

10. Tie - Sergio Kindle/John Chiles - Kindle's Stats - 30 tackles, 7 tfl, 6 sacks, 4 hurries

9. Vondrell McGee - 270 yards, 2 tds, 49 yards receiving

8. Colt McCoy - 2285 yards, 21 tds, 4 ints, 412 yards rushing, 7 rushing TDs

7. Roy Miller - 27 tackles, 4 tfl, 2 hurries

6. Quan Cosby - 56 rec, 688 yards, 4 tds

5. Roddrick Muckelroy - 80 tackles, 2.5 ftl, 1 fumble return for TD, 3 pass breakups

4. Ryan Bailey - 5 PATs

3. Deon Beasley - 19 tackles, 1 pass breakup

2. Brian Orakpo - 30 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 3 forced fumbles, 11 hurries

1. Lamarr Houston - 18 tackles, 1 sack, 3 pass breakups, 5 hurries

After nine weeks of the season, the cream has risen to the top.   While I don't believe in bashing anyone for their performances thus far, its surprising to see how some of our "sure bets" have turned out.  Additionally, I think that taking another look at this ranking at the 3/4 mark of the season should drive home the notion of how close the Horns are to putting together an amazing string of seasons over the next few years.   Here's my top 10 as it stands now:

10. Chris Ogbonnaya - 323 yards rushing, 3 rushing TDs, 35 rec, 432 yards receiving, 3 rec TDs,

9. Quan Cosby - 56 rec, 688 yards, 4 tds, several huge blocks

8. Earl Thomas - 46 tackles, 7 pass breakups,  1 hurry, 2 INTs, 3 forced fumbles, 1 blocked punt/FG,  

7. Roy Miller - 27 tackles, 4 tfl, 2 hurries

6. Chykie Brown - 22 tackles, 2 tfl, 1 sack, 5 pass breakups,

5. Sergio Kindle - 30 tackles, 7 tfl, 6 sacks, 4 hurries

4. Roddrick Muckelroy - 80 tackles, 2.5 ftl, 1 fumble return for TD, 3 pass breakups

3. Jordan Shipley - 64 recs, 779 yards, 10 TDs, 1 Punt return for TD, 1 KO return for TD

2. Brian Orakpo - 30 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 3 forced fumbles, 11 hurries

1. Colt McCoy - 2285 yards, 21 tds, 4 ints, 412 yards rushing, 7 rushing TDs

There have been some surprises (Shipley, Chykie), some dissapointments (Deion Beasley), and some questions - like what to make of Lamarr Houston's move to DT.  It's also worth noting that there have been some stellar performances from some not in this list - Malcolm Williams, Curtis Brown, Blake Gideon.  With only 4 seniors on this list, the future is bright.

1. Greg Davis vs. Ruffin McNeil - Texas - Really the sum product of great play-calling with an offense without a superstar RB/WR vs an up and coming defensive coordinator and defense.  Tech's defense has benefitted from the fact that they rely on the offense to help them make their opponents one dimensional.  However, in games where its been close, particularly the 1st half of A&M and the 2nd half NU game, the Tech defense has gotten worn down by long, punishing, & balanced drives.  Yes, Tech's defense is improved.  Still, it has a ways to go. 

Long drives have become the staple of the Davis/Applewhite/McCoy offense.  When we sustain them our defense becomes dominant (OU, Missou, and 1st half vs OSU).  Turn the ball over or go 3 and out and the game tilts in Tech's favor.  It falls on the staff to create a game plan that balances the run with pin-point short passing plays and keeps the ball out of Harrel's hands.  What I've seen from Tech's defense doesn't frighten me - the defensive line is on par with Missouri's (not OU or OSU), and the linebackers and secondary are not physically imposing.  Where it looks like they've excelled is limiting YAC.

Aside from the talent gap at key positions, the Horns have more talent down the line.  Kirkendoll, Williams, Collins, McGee, and Fozzy would probably start at for any other team Tech has played this year.  If Davis and McCoy use all their weapons, the Horns will be able to match Tech's output.

2. Brian Orakpo vs. Ryan Reed - Texas - If you ask me, we hired Muschamp to ensure we win 2 conference games in '08- OU and Tech.   A healthy Orakpo will use his quickness to get through the wide splits.  Muschamp will stunt him and send him up the middle to disrupt Harrell's view of the middle of the field.

No single player will slow down Orakpo on his own and I think Leach knows it.  However, if he uses an additional blocker to slow Orakpo he'll be playing into the Horn's hands.  Thus, I expect Harrell will throw quickly to the flat away from Rak or roll to the opposite side to try to nullify Rak's impact. 

3. Brown(s) vs. Crabtree - Even - As long as Chykie is healthy.  Crabtree is a stud, but so are the Browns.  Crabtree's one weakness is he often telegraphs his routes.  On deep routes, he runs right at the CB without any moves at the line of scrimmage.  On short routes, he takes a big stride (almost skips) and plants his foot.  He can get away with it because of his combination of speed and size - if one doesn't intimidate the corner the other will.  Both the Browns can stay with Crabtree and I doubt they'll be intimidated.  The key will be if they can disrupt his routes they way they disrupted Maclin's.

I expect Crabtree will have a better line than Dez Bryant did last week, but he won't be the difference maker he was last year.

4. Swindall & Lewis vs. Palmer & Beasley - Tech - This is where the crux of the Tech offense vs Texas defense matchup is.  Tech's receiving corp has more depth than previous years, while Texas' secondary arguably has less.  Play like they did last week, and Beasley and Palmer will be succeptible to big plays against either of these two receivers.  Here's hoping Akina/Muschamp have them ready.

6. Texas LBs vs. Batch & Woods - Tech - Until I see an indication otherwise, Texas is always prone to big games by small RBs.  I expect the Horns will be in a nickle most of the game in order to match personnel, but the RB responsiblities will still fall on Bobino/Muckelroy/Norton.  Many a third down will come down to how we cover the RBs coming out of the backfield.

7. Tech vs. History - Tech - If anything else, Tech has to break through at some point.  They've got the #1 team in the nation coming to their house in primetime.  I expect Tech to come out playing like they believe they ought to win. 

8. Texas vs. Tech's Previous Opponents - Texas - The Horn's are far superior to any team Tech has played this year.  Texas is deep, physically tough, and mentally tested. If nothing else, this is the equalizer - at some point Saturday Tech will encounter something they have yet to encounter - a GAMER at QB, and a team with a SPINE.

9. Lamar Houston & Henry Melton vs. The Radar - Texas - The idea here is that with all the focus on Orakpo it will be these two guys that have the ability to dramatically impact the game.  Houston will be critical in the middle of the field on WR and RB screens.  If he diagnosis the play quickly (as he did in the 4th quarter vs OSU) he can disrupt the flow.  Melton will have to be clutch on the edges.  The Horns will likely try to string the RB out the edge and they've been successful up until last week.   Melton will have to contain the corner for us to stop the run.  Secondly, he needs to recognize the screen pass the edge and shed his blocker quickly.

10. Colt McCoy vs. Darcel McBath - Texas - McBath has enjoyed a string a good games statistically, but he got beat a few times against KU as well.  Colt is savvy enough not to make the same passes Gantz and Reesing made vs Tech.  Those guys were pressing and trying to make things happen.  Colt knowns he can can tuck the ball and run.  Colt will have a big game on Saturday thanks in large part to the plays he makes with his feet.

Prediction - The final score suggests a closer game than it actually is.  Mack will be diciplined and understand that he has to come away with points on every drive.  Leach will be hamstrung by his lack of a kicking game and will be forced into some 4 down attempts he'd rather not try.

Texas sustains the initail onslaught and takes a two score lead before the half.  Both teams go tit-for-tat after that. Texas 48 Tech 42

Thanks Sportingnews.

By the way the grass is also green, sky is blue, the stock market is up down volatile, and OU still sucks.

While most of us dismissed the prospects of the NFL for guys like Colt, Quan, Jordan and others, does the success that they've had this year beg us to reconsider their chances?

Currently, Rivals ranks the following Horns at their respective positions:

QB - Colt McCoy #1

WR - Jordan Shipley #9

WR - Quan Cosby NR

OL - Adam Ulatoski #16

DL - Brian Orakpo #1

DL - Roy Miller NR

LB - Sergio Kindle NR

LB - Roddrick Muckelroy #21

Obviously, Rival's player rankings here have more to do with the player's value to his team, and less to do with the player's value as an NFL prospect.  But the rankings serve as a good barometer to compare against other players that make up the talent pool.  So who's NFL material?  Here's my take starting with the 2009 draft class:

Brian Orakpo - He's a top 10 pick right now, but he's the type of guy who could end up in the top 3 because his "measurables" are off the charts Mario Williams style.

Roy Miller - At this point, is he a better prospect than Frank Okam was?  Halfway through the seaon, Miller is outpacing Okam's 2007 season.  The knock on Roy though is he's 6-2 whereas Okam was 6-5.  Still, Amobi Okoye was a first rounder at the position 2 years ago and he and Roy are about the same size.  Roy will have a chance to play Sundays.

Quan Cosby - NFL hands but hasn't shown the speed.  Can't argue with the toughness though.  Shipley is actually turning out to be the better prospect but Quan will get a shot either in a late round or as a non-drafted free agent. 

2010 Class:

Colt McCoy -  Draft stock rising only in the sense that it was non-existent to start the season.  Even if he wins the Heisman, it will be difficult for Colt to transcend the college game based on stats alone.  Another season at the helm of this offense will certainly pad his number, but I would argue that more than any other player on the roster, Colt's performances against OU and a possible BCS bowl game or two will define him in the eyes of NFL scouts.  Put up an MVP-like performance against a top notch SEC defense in a BCS bowl and scouts will notice.

Sergio Kindle - He's eligible to make the jump this year, and he will be playing on Sundays eventually.  Sergio has been great in the pass rush and solid against the run but he lacks in pass coverage.  The upside on Kindle is huge and he probably fits in nicely in an NFL 3-4 scheme.  Of all the guys on the roster, stay one more year benefits him the most.

Adam Ulatoski - Hasn't faced an NFL prospect other than McCoy and Granger at OU.  Has the size to play in the NFL, but probably not the feet to play LT.  He'll probably get a chance at RT.

Jordan Shipley - Shipley and Cosby have demonstrated that what they lack in size, they make up for in NFL quality hands.  If you had asked me at the start of the season, Quan was more likely to be drafted than Shipley.  However, Shipley's upside in the return game cannot be denied, and the parallels between him and Welker can't be ignored.  At this point, Ship has more upside than Quan and Ship is the better prospect but there's no real benefit to him to leave early.  He stays for the shot at obliterating the record books for both Texas HS football and Texas college football.

Enough with the preseason chatter and lofty expectations, it's time to see what this team can do on the football field.  While beating FAU should not come as a surprise, the manner in which we do so will tell us what the preseason accomplished.  Last year we heard a lot of talk about new packages and schemes on both sides of the ball, but when they hit the field it was clear that the 'Horns were still tweaking and fine tunings the basics -- blocking, tackling, covering WRs, & reading defenses.

While some of us (me included) are not sure if it will translate in the W column, we expect this year to be different.  We want to see the team execute the basics out of the gate.  We want to see the same effort every game, and we want that effort to be equal to what we saw in the Holiday Bowl.  That should lay the foundation for the team to improve throughout the season and be able to compete with it's toughest opponents.

So while some may be looking at the scoreboard, I'll be paying attention to what is happening on the field, and I'll be looking for the following:

The veterans

1. The O-line: Colt will likely not see too much pressure this week, but if he does it will be trouble.  FAU's line will be missing its best player, so our advantage should be decisive in passing situations. Still, their can't be missed assignments or miscommunication.  In the running game, they have to be effective moving the pile - particularly in short yardage. 

2. McCoy and Chiles: Colt needs to show he's back to his freshman form.   Which means managing the game and picking his spots.  It also means stepping up into the pocket, and not out of it.  His WR's will have the physical advantage, but he still needs to hit them in the numbers.  Against better defenses, he will have to.

The 'horns need to take the tarp off of the Q package and display the collection of talent that they have.  This means going to the the Q package early and often.  The more teams see it, the more they will have to prepare for it -- give them something to think about and hopefully be afraid of.

3. Ship and Quan: How quickly are they getting off the line of scrimmage, how crisp are their routes?  I expect them to be solid, and I expect them to not drop footballs.

4. The RBs - I'm going to be looking for blitz recognition first and foremost.  I want to see Fozzy and Cody on the field, but they've got to walk before they can crawl.  To GD and Mack that means helping to protect Colt McCoy.

5. The front 7 - Rak, Miller and company need to show they can get to the QB with 3 or 4 linemen.  The players in the 3-technique will be critical.  If they can't get off their blockers against FAU it won't bode well.  The LBs have to play aggressively and smart.  Too often they got caught in traffic while the play was going the other way.  If Muschamp a success it will be in part to how effectively he can teach the LBs to keep themselves in the play.

The Freshmen

1. The DBs - Show that they can bump WRs at the line of scrimmage.   Last year, there was too much space, and not enough pressure.  I expect Muschamp has been pushing them to effectively bump at the line to give his DL a split second extra to get to the QB.  Secondly, the safeties need to give maximum effort.  They may not put themselves in the right spot all the time, but I expect to see Thomas, Brewster, Gideon and others flying around the defensive backfield.

2. The wild-cards: Buckner,  Williams, Grant, Monroe etc.  The key to playing time with GD is fundamentals - no liabilities on the football field.  With that in mind, I'll be looking to see how they block downfield and how crisp the routes look even when the ball is not coming their way.

I'm not looking for perfection, just a start.

With 60 days or so left until the start of the season, what storylines do you think will potentially emerge?  To me the signs points to a few things:

1. Oklahoma, Missouri, and Ohio State have the best shot at going undefeated this season.  USC has a slightly tougher obstacle in having to beat OSU on the road as well as tangle with improving Pac-10 foes.  SEC teams like Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida have either too daunting of a schedule (UGA, FL) or have too much pressure on a brand new QB (AUB) or both (Tennessee) to really be a threat to win out.

2. Parity.  The last two years have been a dropoff from the epic 2005 season.  I'm obviously biased from the Texas standpoint, but the numbers don't lie.  Texas, USC, Penn State and a few other teams were dominant teams that could have compeated with any college football team in any season.  The last couple of years you would be hard pressed to find any team that you could honestly make that claim about.  While I believe the three teams mentioned above (OU, Mizzou, and OSU) have the best shot to run the table, don't expect an undefeated team in a BCS conference. 

3. BYU.  Get used to hearing about them.  If I were BYU fan, I'd start making the travel plans to be in a BCS bowl game.  As sad as it sounds, if they put together a Hawaii-like season they could find themselves playing for it all.  They return a potent offense and might as would be more challenged facing the Utah School for the Blind 12 straight weeks.

4. Left field.  Parity, injuries, schedules, underclassmen etc means that some teams will seemingly come out of no where to challenge for a spot at the top.  By the same token, there are easily 3 to 4 preseason top 10 teams that may not be in the top 15 to end the season.  Last year it was ASU, Kansas, and Illinois emerging. Most people seem to think Tech is the darkhorse to emerge this year, personally i think the darkhorse will come out of the ACC between VTech and Wake Forest.  On the other hand teams like Clemson, WVA, and Auburn could easily drop following a tough offseason of injuries, arrests, uncertainty at the like. 

As much as a homer I am, I'm having trouble finding enough arguements to believe the 'Horns can win the Big 12.  Here are the biggest concerns that I have -- taking into consideration how fundamental the concern is as well as the likelihood that it will manefest itself this year:

10. Off the field distractions.  2007 was painful, a repeat would be an abomination.

9. QB Depth.  Improved o-line should mitigate this; Colt still running wild will not.

8. RB Depth. Fozzy? Hills??  McGee going down will spell doom.

7. Big game preparation.  We lost 2 out of the 3 games last year due to lack of preparation.  They made a big point of this vs Arizona State.  Have we seen the last of these concerns?  We probably won't look past the big games, but will we look past Colorado?

6. Lack of playmakers.  Without big play ability we may not be able to keep up with the teams on our schedule.

5. Experience at secondary.  Tech, OU, Missouri, Kansas, Okie State, & Colorado on our schedule.

4. Turnover margin.  Affinity for giving them away last year, compounded with an inability to take them away consistently.

3. Inability to establish consistent running game.  Need to be effective on 2nd and 3rd third with 6 yards or less to go.  Need to get chunks of yardage too.  Last year, we had trouble doing both at times.

2. Defensive depth.  Any injury to the line, LBs, and secondary will expose a part of the team that is already thin on quality experience.

1. Inability to become an elite defense.  To win the Big 12 this year this defense has to be elite or near elite.  The Big 12 champ will probably have a top 25 or top 30 offense and defense.

Given how fundamental these issues are, is a Big 12 championship possible?  Probably not.  10 wins will be the standard by which to measure this team.

Update [2008-3-5 12:27:4 by BMG]: Trey Graham, TE Waco Midway is the 14th commit
Update [2008-3-5 12:27:4 by BMG]: Tariq Allen, MLB LB Irving MacArthur is the 15th commit
Ken Vaccaro, DB Brownwood, becomes the 12 commit.
Barrett Matthews, TE Galena Park, is the 13th commit.

Update [2008-3-5 12:27:4 by BMG]: Allen is one of the top LB in the state, however the Graham recruitment is a bit of a mystery and was not on many radar screens.  So far Mack has reeled in commits on most of the sholarships he has offered, but we're still waiting on a few big fish in-state --- Okafor and McFarland --- as well as a couple major out of state recruits.

Continue reading this post »

Check out ESPN's "expert" rankings for this week:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/powerr...

Continue reading this post »

Soon after the 'horns put the finishing touches on this year's class, top juniors from around the state will be in Austin for two junior day/weekends.  

Continue reading this post »

nothing new on D Scott, but the 'horns are making waves elsewhere.   The loss of Charles and Finley will open up two additional scholarships.  Texas has invited DT Rod Davis of Eisenhower, DB Rahim Moore of LA Dorsey, and Vaughn Telemaque of Long Beach Poly for official visits.  

Continue reading this post »