The Quarterback takes the snap and quickly drops five steps behind the line.  He meets the Running back just in time to hand the ball off.  The speedy runner flashes off to his left, racing for the end of the offensive line, the defense in full pursuit.  As this is happening, the Wide Receiver on the left side of the formation, races to his right, and as he passes, the running back . . .

    Oh.  Wait.  That's not the kind of reverse I was thinking about. 

More after the jump

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     In jpage78's post "It had to be said" a comment subthread was started that talked about why the Broncos keep running between the tackles on 3rd & 4th and short, since that type of play has proven to be markedly unsuccessful.  This started me wondering how often McDaniels has called a between the tackles run on 3rd or 4th and short.  So, I went to nfl.com, pulled up the Game Book for each of our 13 games and looked at the play-by-play to see how often the Broncos have found themselves in 3rd/4th and short and what play was called.  The results might surprise you.

More after the jump.

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    Experiencing an incredibly busy couple of weeks at work, combined with family obligations, a major home improvement project and an intense coastal navigation class left me with little time to do more than skim the absolutely awesome posts here at MHR, and drop the occasional comment and rec'd.  I've very much enjoyed the wealth of articles that have been flowing from the creative and intelligent minds of our members.  I've also been totally stoked over the number of members who have taken the leap and made their first posts.  Way to go & kudos to each and every one of you.
    One of the side-effects of having little time to myself is that I often find myself skimming articles on the MSM (please do not revoke my membership for this ;-p).  One in particular caught my eye the other day.  It was an article by John Clayton (please do not burn me in effigy for daring to cite his work).  It was titled: "Elite QBs more vital than ever"  (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=4705986).  The reason that this caught my attention was that rarely, when discussing "elite" or "franchise" quarterbacks, the writers rarely define what they mean by the term.  Clayton gave the readers his definition -- an elite quarterback has the following characteristics:

1 -- can run an offense that scores 21.5 or more points per game.
2 -- throws for 220 or more yards per game.
3 -- has a 60% or higher completion rate.
4 -- has led 4th quarter comebacks.

    Clayton then goes on to offer a list of QBs that he sees as "elite," and includes a couple that he would consider to be on the bubble.  Those QBs are:

AFC -- P. Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Palmer, and Flacco.
NFC -- Brees, Favre, Romo, McNabb, Rodgers, Warner, E. Manning, and Ryan.
Bubble -- Schaub, Hasselbeck (on bubble due to rib injury), and Cutler (was elite in Denver, INTs have dragged him down in Chi)

    Of course, the obvious question that arose for me at this point was "Do these QBs, in the 2009 season, meet the criteria set forth by Clayton, and how does Kyle Orton compare to this group?

Results after the jump

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     Like every other Broncos fan on the face of the planet, I was devastated last year when we went into the end of the season and blew a 3-game lead to lose not only the division championship, but any shot at the playoffs.  I was thoroughly embarrassed, and took a lot of laughing comments from coworkers, including one who is a 49ers fan.

     We've spent time looking at the reasons for that epic collapse.  We've dealt with the off-season and a 6-0 record to start the year.  And now that we've had a losing streak, people are going "Like OMG, the season's over."  But is it?

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    On game day, I watch the Broncos play as a fan.  That is, I'm often cheering (or yelling in frustration) at my television as each play unfolds.  I feel elated when we win.  I feel somewhat depressed when we lose.  Then throughout the week, I look back at the game, read lots of MHR articles and struggle to understand what happened (and yes this occurs when we win, as well as when we lose), and I try to assess what the previous games may, or may not, presage for the future.

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     I was skimming a number of news sites over the last couple of days (I know, I know, I should be assigned detention for this), and I found a number of startling comments about how Denver has been struggling in the Red Zone, about how we get to the Red Zone and choke, etc., etc.  Of particular interest to me were some claims that Orton has not performed well in the Red Zone this year.

     I found myself wondering if this were true, or whether it was simply more misinformation being perpetuated by people who do not want to credit Denver with having improved this year.  My curiosity led me to do a bit of research into just how we have fared in the Red Zone this year.

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    There are those among the Broncos faithful whom, I believe, are convinced that I have taken one too many trips to the Kool Aid well this year, and therefore must be blind to reality.  I must admit that I have been a vocal advocate of 13-3, Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton, and all of the rest of the Broncos' players and coaches.  But I'd like to take a moment and let everyone know, that this is the way that I approach every season, irregardless of which people are currently occupying those spots.  Every year I believe that we are going to the playoffs, and even the Super Bowl, right up to the point that it becomes mathematically impossible for us to do so.  At that point, I go "Well dang [actually the words are usually a bit more . . . colorful . . . than that].  I guess we'll have to look to next year.  I've stayed up late at night celebrating Super Bowl wins, and called in sick to work following Super Bowl losses. 

    Over the years I have rooted for Miller, Reeves, Phillips, Shanahan and now McDaniels as coaches.  Morton, DeBerg, Elway, Griese, Plummer, Cutler and now Orton have received my support as our quarterback.  The same goes for each of the other positions.  Does this mean that I have cheered them on without reservations?  Absolutely not.  When I was a teen and young adult, I would settle for being angry, disappointed and frustrated when things went wrong.  I would hold high hopes for this player or that player, based on nothing more than a "gut" feeling about them.  Since becoming a teacher 21 years ago, my perspective has changed somewhat.  After the jump, I'll share with those of you who choose to wade through this post, how this has all changed.

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    I became fascinated over the last couple of days by the repeated calls for Denver to start throwing the ball deep.  I've seen persuasive arguments both for and against emphasizing long throws in our offense. 

    The on-going discussion piqued my curiosity to the point that I decided to take a look to see what the tendency in the NFL is, when it comes to throwing the long ball. 
   
    For the sake of this study, I defined "long" as a pass which was thrown for 21 or more yards.  I looked at the following statistics for each of the 32 starting quarterbacks: Attempts, Completions, Yards, Touchdowns, and Interceptions.  After the jump, we'll take a look at the data.

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    There has been a fair amount of understandable concern regarding the way the Brocnos' offense has started out the 2009 campaign.  While I tend to not be a believer that the quarterback can take all of the credit (or blame depending on the situation) for how the offense plays, I do agree that the offense is perceived to begin and end with the quarterback; for the quarterback is very often the "face" of the offense. There are definitely issues that need to be addressed.  Having said that, however, I'm not ready to give up on Orton, the offense or the season just yet.

    Now I am not attempting to be an Orton apologist, nor am I wanting to gloss over the mistakes that he has made thus far in 2009.  Nor am I attempting to be a doom and gloom sort of person who wants to predict that the remainder of 2009 is going to unravel.  Rather, I am curious about the difference between our production so far, as compared to our offense's perceived potential.

    Our offensive scheme is the McDaniels' variation of the Belichick offense.  I believe it is fair to say that Coach McDaniels' scheme finds its roots in the system put in place by Belichick in New England; in much the same way as Mike Shanahan's offense could trace it roots back to the system put in place by Bill Walsh.

    This being the case, I decided to take a look at the last three quarterbacks to be introduced to the Belichick/McDaniels offensive schema, and how each of them fared in their first full year as the starting quarterback within that system.  I also chose to limit the comparison to the first eight games of that first year as the full time starters.

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    Bob in Boulder, in a response to the post "The Broncos Success - Is it Orton or McDaniels?" raised the question of how Orton's statistics at various ranges compared to other quarterbacks.  I decided to take a look at this.

    I used the data provided by espn.com's stat pages for the the top 10 quarterbacks (as ranked by yardage on the sportsline.com website).  I also threw in Cutler's statistics since someone will undoubtedly raise that question.  The data is shown after the jump.

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