After his surprise attack on Stage 16, Alberto Contador said:

Alberto Contador was very pleased with the result of Stage 16 due to the time gap he gained over the Schelck brothers, saying it  was "better than I thought. I thought it was around  20 seconds or so, I'm very pleased, it is a big gap.".

Contador said "as I said before, I can not waste any stages to gain back time. I don't feel great, but Ican't waste any stages to gain back time.. I don't feel great, but I can't wait.,:

"I was going to attack no matter who followed my wheel, I knew someone would stick," said Contador. Contador strategized with  Samuel Sánchez during the stage and told him he would attack.. "[Sanchez] told me he was on the edge, which is a shame because [if he was better], we could have put in more time, " said Contador.

Showing his satisfaction, Contador said he would study the new situation in the race

He didn't feel well today he said:

"I can't say I was good because good is winning. I don't like this style of riding, it's very different from my own.[. . .] I didn't have a bad day, I'm getting better and I expect to improve day by day and in the Alps I will totally be myself and will get back lost time. I was not feeling well,, but I did not have much difficulties and that makes me optimistic for the upcoming stages."

About the Schlecks:

"[Contador] was skeptical of the tactics used by the Schlecks in today's stage as they did not try to take advantage of the mountain finish to distance themselves from Cadel Evans. "They will have a difficult time winning [using these tactics]," said Contador."

About Thomas Voeckler:

"We know he is a gritty cyclist, but the day he blows up he'll lose a lot of time. If he blows up."

Honest analysis or head games?

"The maximum favorite is Cadel Evans, on top of the Schlecks, who have to choose a leader (decantar por una baza - literal translation - to pour from one container into another), not ride for both, because if the ride for both equally, neither will win. In this sense, they have to concentrate principally on Cadel Evans," said Contador.

I actually agree with this to a point. I think if Contador improves, his time gaps to the Schlecks can be surmounted, especially in a time trial. Not so with Evans.

Everything Contador said about concentrating on Evans applies to him as well (as it does to Basso also.) The Schlecks may have more weapons, but the problem belongs to Contador as well. They all need to hit Evans.

After an essentially neutralized Stage13 for GC purposes, an intriguing and exciting stage seems assured for Stage 14's mountaintop finish on Plateau de Beille, where Contador will be looking to repeat his 2007 stage win (where he dropped Evans whle working with Rasmussen (could Contador and the Schlecks work together against Evans?)

A surprising reaction to me from Contador After Stage 12:

"I am almost certain that I am getting better every day, with a little bit of ice my knee will be in condition on Saturday" on Plateau de Beille. "Now everyone will be fatigued and that is in my favor," said Contador.

Contador admitted that  his knee was giving him trouble in Stage 12, stating that "My knee felt very poorly, it was bothering me and I am satisfied with the result, even though I lost a few seconds. I could not do more."

Not sure if this should be called "reverse sandbagging." It certainly makes Saturday more interesting I think.

Reuters: "World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) officials could consider proposing changes to rules regarding the banned anabolic clenbuterol at a meeting in Montreal next week, WADA science director Olivier Rabin said on Tuesday."

Interesting timing. Anyway the changes considered  appear to involve thresholds (see AP story), or, more troubling, adopting an ad hoc, case by case approach:

"Speaking ahead of a symposium on doping detection, Rabin said officials may have found "a way forward" allowing "context" to be considered before an automatic two-year ban was imposed on athletes testing positive for the performance-enhancing drug. "There are very few cases of clenbuterol so it's not impossible to handle on a case-by-case basis," Rabin said. "We could make recommendations to the WADA executive committee to say over some level it's definitely doping, and at another level it could be further consideration in a context of previous results or future results of the athlete."

This strikes me as a bad approach. While strict liability appears to work poorly, that level of discretion in adjudicators will make every decision suspect. Especially considering that national federations will remain the first reviewers of a case.  The article continues:

"The WADA board would have to approve any changes at its meeting in September but proposals could be firmed up at a WADA Laboratory Expert Group Meeting in Montreal next week. "The fear of meat contamination by doping substances is nothing new. Before it was testosterone and now we are facing clenbuterol. With a limited number of countries there is the risk that meat can be contaminated by clenbuterol, something which is in the scientific literature," said Rabin."We have to be careful because the concentration is not always the same order of magnitude," said Rabin."We have take into account the context. We are reviewing the data and may make recommendations to the executive committee, who could make an adjustment to the rules, if needed, or they could say we want it to remain at the same level."

It will be interesting to see if WADA makes any public announcements regarding this issue prior to the Tour. In addition, it will be interesting if this affects WADA's posture in the Contador case in August.

Interesting comments from UCI chief Pat McQuaid

I'm aware [Contador] is going to make a strong case[. . .] But the way the proceedings went in Spain meant that we really had no option but to do what we did. [. . . The Spanish Federation] also received a huge amount of pressure from political sources, including the Prime Minister, saying he shouldn't be sanctioned[. . . ] Obviously he's an athlete of very high standing in Spain. But when you get the Spanish Prime Minister and the president of the Spanish Olympic Committee intervening and making statements when they don't know the facts of the case, it's just not right.

Even though the Spanish federation told us that had no effect on their decision, we will never really know that. [. . ] And the public and the cycling fans and cycling family will never really know. The only way to ensure that we get a credible and just and fair result is to take it to a higher authority – which for us is CAS – that has credibility, that has the capacity to deal with this case and which the sports family will accept.

I am on record as stating that the Spanish Federation decision is very poorly reasoned and impossible to sustain (although the CAS could sustain the decision despite this by more properly stating the justification.) That said, the UCI should not take an appeal unless they believe the decision rendered is incorrect. And certainly the head of the UCI should not say the UCI  is taking an appeal to clear the air. That is inexcusable.  In any event, I am interested in reading the appeal document. Does anyone have it yet?

Reading the Spanish Federation's decision (PDF) , it appears that they have hung their hat on the "balance of the probabilities" standard to exonerate Contador. Consider first their description of how the case came to them:

En la comunicación de fecha 8 de noviembre de 2010, con registro de entrada en sede federativa ese mismo día, UCI articuló la acusación contra el corredor sobre la base de una serie de posibles explicaciones, compartidas por AMA en relación con el origen del resultado adverso detectado en el control antidopaje realizado al deportista. Así, las alternativas establecidas unilateralmente por UCI son las que siguen:

i.- Ingesta de suplementos alimenticios contaminados con Clembuterol.
ii.- Ingesta de comida contaminada con Clembuterol.
iii.- Transfusión de derivados sanguíneos conteniendo Clembuterol.
iv.- Ingesta de microdosis de Clembuterol.
v.- .........

 

The key part is the assertion that UCI and WADA established the possible explanations for the clen finding. From there, the Federation "balances the probabilities." Let's see on the flip. Or as they say in Spanish. Veamos.

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There are a few clen decisions that have been issued by the Tribunal of Arbitration for Sport. A case many are discussing today is the decision by TAS to overturn the exoneration of Spanish/Nigerian hurdler Josephine Onyia for  findings of clenbuterol and methylhexaneamine. I will discuss that case and another clen case decided by TAS that, in my view, favors Contador. The key point of the Onyia case that is relevant to Contador's case:

In order for the Athlete to be able to argue exceptional circumstances pursuant to either IAAF Rule 40.2 or 40.3, she first has to establish how the prohibited substance entered her system. Under IAAF Rule 33.3, the burden of proof on the Athlete in this respect is a balance of probabilities. The Athlete has not been able to meet this burden [. . .] The mere assertion that the low concentration of clenbuterol found could potentially have been caused by the ingestion of contaminated meat is inadequate. Without any scientific or factual evidence to back up the claim that in this instance the source of the clenbuterol was contaminated meat eaten by the Athlete, she was unable to discharge the onus on her on the balance of probabilities and it was not open to the RFEA to hold her blameless.

 

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I woke up this morning to a sports talk show discussion comparing Lance Armstrong (spurred by this story) and Alex Rodriguez, who hit his 600th career home run last night. The ESPN radio show, Mike (Greenberg) and Mike (Golic) are discussing how to react to the two pieces of news - and noting the different reactions from their listeners. To wit, there are harsh words for Alex and exculpatory words for Lance (to criticize Lance is to love cancer.) 

Of course this is an American sports show, ignorant specifcally about the sport of cycling, and frankly, just plain ignorant. But beyond that, Mike and Mike make an important point about Armstrong's image - in the US the number of people who care about cycling is not that big (to be sure, the number of people who care about baseball is also diminishing.)

But outside of the diehard fans, if Armstrong faces legal action, the relative indifference regarding cycling in the US  will not cut in Lance's favor. Facing criminal charges would be the biggest story of Lance's life. Bigger than winning 7 Tours. If the investigation goes badly for Lance, the aura in the US will be over. The inspirational story will be wrecked. He won't be "Lance" in the US anymore. He'll be Armstrong.

Read this and tell me what you think in context of cycling, especially in the US post-Lance.

Bill Simmons

Q: Soccer still isn't going anywhere in America for this reason: People like me, who only watch soccer whenever the World Cup is on, are hated by actual soccer fans. They would rather have us not watch soccer at all rather than start watching soccer and rooting for the U.S. during the World Cup. It kills them to see people watching who don't normally. I have heard people say things to other people along the lines of "you don't even know the rules" and "if you don't know what's going on then don't watch." Ironically, diehard soccer fans here are actually hurting soccer's progress here in the U.S..

-- Brandon P, Zanesville, Ohio

SG: You just introduced a premise called "The Cult of Status Quo." Sometimes when people become die-hard fans of something that isn't mainstream -- a writer, a band, a player, a TV show, a sport or whatever -- they want to keep that thing the way it is over seeing that thing take off. Why? Because it's cooler to like something that isn't mainstream popular. Because mainstream popularity begets bandwagon fans and people who aren't as sophisticated about that product. Because it's more fun to love something before it takes off than after it takes off.

. . . For fun, I asked David Hirshey (soccer historian, author of "The ESPN World Cup Companion") and Michael Davies (TV producer, World Cup blogger) for their takes:

 

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While Alberto Contador has faced criticism from many quarter for not waiting for Andy Schleck in Stage 15 after Schleck's mechanical, in Spain he has faced criticism for not being cutthroated towards Schleck, from Stage 2 on.  Today was another day for the Spanish press to rip him. AS.com:

"The climb to Tourmalet, with Contador and Andy mano a mano, simplifies what this Tour has been: an exclusive duel between the two  strongest men. And also a charade. Today I wait, tomorrow I don't.  Yesterday I did not see the chain come off, later I apologize. On the Tourmalet I let you win. This is not sport, nor is it fair play. It is playacting. The prestige of writing your name on this summit [Tourmalet] should be more important than friendship and endorsement money. But, Contador has had a tete a tete with his fellow cyclist after taking out  39 seconds because of a mechanical (a racing circumstance like any other), and now finds himself only 3 stages from winning his  third Tour of France, the time trial in Bourdeaux before him, in which Contadar is much superior to Schleck."

I've thought that part of the reason Contador did not wait in Stage 15 was because of the criticism he received in the Spanish press for waiting on Stage 2. And indeed, he mentioned it after the controversy of Stage 15. Contador has two audiences - one Spanish and one global. And their criticisms have been at cross purposes. What does Contador really believe would be sporting? Personally, I think Stage 2 reflected his true views. He wanted to beat Schleck on his bike. Not on the side of the road, crashed or with a mechanical.

As for today, as I understand the conventions (inexpert fan though I am), since Schleck had carried the race up the climb (and withstood Contador's counterattack) it would have been poor form for Contador to contest at the very end. And even if he did contest, it is not clear to me he would have beaten Schleck at the end. I've never seen Contador win a contested finish myself. (correction, he outsprinted Brakjovic on the Alpe d'Huez in the Dauphine,)

But what I am trying to illuminate just a  little bit is the dilemma, at least in terms of public relations and public criticism, that Contador faced. The proverbial spot between the rock and a hard place.

Photo: Bryn Lennon, Getty

AS.com:

Alberto Contador [said] that he was not aware that Andy Schleck had suffered suffered a mechanical failure when he started his attack. "Later I was told . . .I started my attack before that; he had attacked, I was boxed in, but I countered as best as I could and I did not see what had happened to him." Contador added "I have been told about the controversy; everyone does what they think is right regarding sportsmanship. What happened today is a cycling incident and it could happen to me tomorrow. At the time of the attack, I never looked back. Moreover, no one knows what might have happened, but I do not know how much time Schleck has lost because of this. I have talked to Andy, and he is unhappy, but it is a cycling event, and I did not even know about it..

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As an inexpert fan of cycling, I am always uncertain of my expectations of a cycling event. As a fan of Alberto Contador, I have been nervous about him all year - the loss to Igor Anton on a  mountaintop finish in the spring, the loss to Evans at Fleche Wallone, the time trial loss to Brakjoivic in the Dauphine, the indifferent performance in the TdF prologue, the loss to Schleck in a mountaintop TdF stage. Every time I expressed my doubts, wiser, more experienced heads at PdC have  checked my overreactions.

But tell me this, am I wrong to expect an epic week ahead? Is Andy Schleck not looking as good as you have ever seen him? Is this not the most exciting top flight duel since Armstrong-Ullrich in 2003? Here is what Bernard Hinault said:

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The head games begin. From  AS.com

[Q]  . . Your team is not as potent as last year's Astana team:

Contador: That is undeniable. Our team is not at the same level as Radio Shack. We're not at the same level as Radio Shack or Saxo Bank.On the other hand, my teammates are committed to the same goals. That is important too,although it is clear that others will have to take charge of the peloton, although my team can to a certain extent.

[Q]: Astana can not control the race?

Contador: I think no team can control the Tour from beginning to end. It's impossible to control all the circumstances. My team is limited, but I am very comfortable because I have done everything possible to be in the best possible condition for the Tour. There are other riders who need to win more than I do. There is only one Tour winner. Losing is normal. The hard part is winning.

[Q]: What is clear is that you will have no problem getting to the hotel?

Contador: Yes, I will be more comfortable and I can relax.  Also, I can ride the race in a way that is advantageous to me, as I choose.

More swipes at The Shack, Armstrong and Bruyneel, with much egging on by the interviewer, on the flip.

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VN has a writeup on Contador's  pre-LBL press conference titled A Man For The Classics

One of the biggest criticisms of Lance Armstrong (RadioShack) over the years has been his solitary focus on one event, the Tour de France. [. . .] Now, five years after [Armstrong's] last Tour victory, Alberto Contador (Astana) is sitting firmly on Armstrong's former throne and comfortable enough to take a different approach to his July. [. . .] He's continued to build on his success and changed focus to the Ardennes Classics, where he rode impressively onto the podium in Flèche Wallonne, and will now take on the oldest of the Classics, Liège-Bastogne-Liège. In a press conference [Friday] he said that the Classics are going to be a focus for him during his career, something that will earn the Spaniard a lot of respect from the purists in the sport.

From AS, Contador also said "in the future, I want to try for a Giro/Tour or Tour/Vuelta double."

What would be more impressive and/or difficult - winning classics and the Tour (in the same year) or a Giro/Tour or Tour/Vuelta double? My ignorant take -- Contador could have won La Fleche Wallone a few days ago and still be the Tour favorite. Maybe the Monuments are too much to ask. I would think the GT double the harder task. I'd rather see that attempted.

An attempt to humanize the Accountant? Article and Video of Alberto Contador's ride (with Benjamin Noval) from Santiago de Compostela to Liege. Some tidbits from the story:

[Alberto] Contador did not risk his imminent debut in the Ardennes: He traveled the 1.923 kilómeters that separate  Santiago from Liege by car in  a 24 hour trip. [Contador], accompanied by Benjamín Noval and his press agent Jacinto Vidarte, left Santiago de Compostela Sunday after winning his third  Vuelta a Castilla y León. The adventure began at 16:30, and at 02:00 they stopped in Poitiers to rest for 7 hours, Monday they finished the trek to Liege at 15:00.

First thoughts on arriving in Liege? Getting on a bike: We'll see how he feels on the bike come tomorrow. Update - Contador scouts Huy --

Alberto Contador acknowledged that Huy is "tougher than I remember.[. . .]The last 700 meters are incredible." Also some thoguhts on L-B-L -- a race Contador said was "much tougher than Le Fleche Wallone. Riders arrive much more winded at the end because there are an additional 60 kms and the ascent is much larger. I expect to do well but there are riders much more experienced and focused on these races than I have been.

Europe Press

Two time Tour de France winner Alberto Contador acknowledged that he arrives in good form for  the next edition of Paris-Nice. [. . .] in which he will compete with the Olympic champion, Samuel Sánchez, the last winner of the Vuelta de Espana, Alejandro Valverde, and Luxemburger Franck Schleck, among others. [. . .]  

"I am in good form, although I've done little training since the Vuelta al Algarve. I had a chill, a consequence of the rain in Portugal, but despite that I think I am in good form," said Contador.

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 EFE reports:

Alberto Contador and Astana have reached a preagreement to complete the remaining year of Contador's contract which ends in 2010, according to a press release from Contador's press agent. The agreement is conditioned upon Astana "maintaining its Pro Tour license and stirctly complies with the ethical code and an internal anti-drug control system to be implemented by the new leaders of the team. [. . .] The duration of the contract that will be signed is only for one year, because in addition to this being a new project for Astana [??], Alberto Contador does not want to abandon the possibility of making a longer term decision regarding his cycling future until after he has the full freedom to evaluate all his options at the end of 2010," concludes the press release.

AP

The International Cycling Union lashed out at France's anti-doping agency Monday for alleging that the Astana team [.  . .] received preferential treatment during drug tests at this year's Tour de France.

A report drawn up by France's national anti-doping agency concluded that Astana "benefited from special treatment from UCI officials" during the Tour, according to Le Monde newspaper.

Le Monde and other French media said the agency's 10-page report faulted the cycling union for letting Astana be the last to be tested every morning and giving them extra time to report for testing.

More . . .

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Part 2 of my translation of the EFE Interview with Alberto Contador. Part 1 here.

P: Recordando lo que sucedió en el Tour de Francia, ¿tuvo la sensación de que hubo presión en el equipo para que ganara Armstrong?

Q: Remembering what happened in the Tour de France, did you feel that there was pressure on the team to work for an Armstrong victory?

R: Bueno, creo que en el equipo también tenían ganas de que ganara yo, pero a nivel de marketing o de futuro para el nuevo equipo que han hecho tal vez les interesaba más que ganara Lance Armstrong, pero no le quiero dar más importancia.

A: Well, I believe that the team also wanted me to win, but on the level of marketing or the future for their new team they have made, perhaps they were more interested in having Armstrong win, but I really do not want to dwell on all that.

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From todociclismo, with my rough translation:

Pregunta: Después del Tour, una de las decisiones que tiene claras es que quiere cambiar de equipo, ¿no es así?

Question: After the Tour, one of the decisions that your have already made clear is to switch teams

Respuesta: Si. La idea es rescindir el contrato y cambiar de equipo. Es una decisión que he pensado mucho. A día de hoy lo más adecuado es cambiar de equipo. Quiero garantías para afrontar en las mejores condiciones el Tour de Francia. Tengo diferentes posibilidades, pero no me quiero precipitar, puede ser un equipo hecho o un proyecto nuevo. Si continuo en el Astana es porque no he podido rescindir el contrato.

Answer: Yes. The idea is to rescind the contract and change teams. It's a decision that I seriously pondered. As of today, I have decided that changing teams is the best decision. I want assurance to be able to face  the Tour of France in the best conditions. I have different options, but I want to not rush in to anything, it can be an existing team or a new project. If I stay with Astana, it will be because I could not rescind the contract.

More . . .

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From various sources. First VeloNews, citing L'Equipe:

According to a report in Thursday’s L’Equipe, the two-time Tour de France winner has turned down a multi-million-euro contract extension and is trying to break his remaining year that he has with the Kazakh-backed team. “Alberto has experienced a season that was psychologically very difficult and now we have to watch out for his future and his tranquility,” said Fran, Contador’s brother and manager, in the French sports daily. “We have nothing against the Kazakhs, but now we have to think about Alberto. Things are too complicated that we can carry on like this. We have to look for a solution with the year’s contract remaining with Alberto.” Contador turned down a four-year offer worth 4 million Euros per season that would have included his remaining year under his current contract and three more seasons through 2013.

AS reports it this way:

Contador has on the table, among others, offers from  Caisse d''Epargne and  Garmin, sources said. Fran [Contador], brother and manager of the cyclist, is negotiating  an amicable recission on the year left on Contador's contract with Astana.

More . . .

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Very funny. My rough translation:

The agent of the Schleck brothers, Frank and Andy,  stated that there has been no contact regarding the Schleck brothers joining the Radio Shack team to be launched by Lance Armstrong, and attributed the rumors to an Armstrong strategy to discomfit Alberto Contador.

"There is no possibility of this happening. I have had no contact with Bruyneel. It is only a strategy to cause Contador to lose next year" said Giovanni Lombardi, personal agent of the two brothers to L'Equipe. . . . "Andy has seen clearly everything  that Alberto Contador lived through in this year's Tour and nobody can imagine that he would willingly embroil himself in all that with the ambitions he has for next year, " said Lombardi.

I wonder what all of Lance's Twitter buddies will have to say about that?

VeloNews Andrew Hood seems to think so:

Whether he likes to admit it or not, Contador will be missing the Armstrong-Bruyneel tandem in 2010. The Belgian director is bringing many of the team’s top riders as well as most of the infrastructure, mechanics, sport directors and other support staff – much of it left over from the U.S. Postal Service and Discovery Channel days -- with him to RadioShack. . . . Gone, too, will be Bruyneel’s collective acumen on what it takes to win a grand tour. Contador might be the most successful grand tour rider in a generation, but right now, he’s a champion without a team.

I ask the experienced hands at PdC - will Alberto Contador have difficulty finding a team to take him? Hood seems to think so. More . . .

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After Stage 16, EL PAIS, the Spanish newspaper, along with other international Media, interviewed Lance Armstrong. Some interesting excerpts on the other side. the English is my rough translation

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