SB Nation User Blog: BTLove

Do NOT Trade Clay Buchholz for Roy Halladay.

BTLove — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:56:32 -0000

By now I'm sure everyone has seen the latest reports that the Red Sox are aggressively pursuing a trade for Roy Halladay. Not surprisingly, the rumors always start with Clay Buchholz. But if you're asking, my advice: do not give up Clay for Halladay, even if it is one for one. It is simply not worth it.

Let's look at the values of both players.

Halladay WAR last five years: 4.4, 5.6, 5.7, 7.4, 7.3.

In 6 of his 8 seasons in the majors, he has pitched at least 220 innings, including the last four seasons.

I am not here to disparage Roy Halladay. There is no mistaking that he is a truly elite pitcher, arguably the best in baseball. He is getting older (turns 33 next season), but I am fairly confident he will continue to be worth around 5 WAR for at least four more seasons.

We all are very familiar with the Clay Buchholz saga; top prospect pitches no-no then sucks in the majors, dominates AAA again and now looks to be finally breaking through, having pitched very well at the end of last season. Bill James projects Clay to pitch 161 innings at a FIP of 3.94. Given that projection, and the ability for growth, 3 WAR average over the next 4 seasons seems reasonable. Those are very good numbers, but certainly not in Halliday's class. So why should we hold on to Clay? Simply, because of the money.

Roy Halladay will make $15M next season, the last year of his contract. In order to keep him past this season, we will need to negotiate a Santana-like extension for another 5 years at $20Mish per season. Given my entriely unscientific estimate of 5 WAR per year over that period, he will be paid $115Mish for 30 WAR. That comes out to $3.8 per WAR, actually a very good value.

Clay Buchholz will make at most $15M total over the next four seasons. And only that much if he becomes a very good starter. Like any young, good pitcher, he will be an incredible value, one of the better deals in baseball. We would only be paying something like $1.2M per WAR, without any kind of long-term commitment.

So, we can assume the Sox have a definite budget. Any money spent on one guy, is money that could be spent on someone else. What else can we get with the difference in money, basically $14M next year and more for the years following? A lot. We could sign John Lackey, or Jason Bay, or Matt Holliday. We could make a run at Joe Mauer next season. We could extend Josh Beckett.

Given a choice between the expensive Roy Halladay or the cheap Clay Buchholz, I will take four years of Clay.

Looking at Payroll

BTLove — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 21:26:52 -0000

By now we all know that this team had weaknesses and I'm sure everyone out there has some solution in mind that will bring us our next World Series. But before we all go crazy talking about free agent targets for the offseason let's remember that there is always at least one thing getting in the way of any free agent signing or trade: money. So, let's take a look the payroll situation so we'll have an idea how much money Theo will be able toss around this winter.

Cot's Contracts has a great spreadsheet of our current 2010-2014 payroll obligations and complete contract data for every Sox player (for those who do not know, Cot's is the best source for anything contract-related.)

The Sox already have almost $109M committed for next year, assuming Tek stays on for $3M, Wake stays for $4M and we do not pick up Saito's ($5.5M) or Alex Gonzalez's ($6M) options. Unfortunately, that number does include the $9M+ that we'll be paying the great Julio Lugo.

However it does not include the raises we'll be handing out in arbitration cases, so let's take a look at those guys:

Papelbon ($6.25M)+$2.75M: Despite his most recent failure, Papelbon just finished a great season and will be in line for a raise. Fangraphs usually uses a 40/60/80 guideline when making predictions in arbitration cases, meaning a guy earns 40% of his value in the first year of arbitration and so on. This would mean he is due to make about $9M next year, so a raise of $2.75M.

Okajima: +$3M: He has been solid for three straight years so he will get a raise. $3M seems about right.

RamRam: +$2.5M: After two great years in the majors, he'll also see a raise.

MDC: +$1.5M: His last 2 months probably cost him $1M.

Casey Kotchman ($2.88M)+$.5M : He lost his starting role this season, but we rarely see guys lose money in arbitration, so we should expect at least a small raise. I'm not certain he'll be around anyway, so I'll just leave him out for now.

These are all rough estimates, but we can expect to spend right around $10M keeping these guys. That puts us at $119M for 15 guys. Throw in the minimum contracts of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Clay Buccholz and we are at $120M for 18 players. That is a lot of money and certainly does not give us much payroll flexibility for this coming season, but the good news is that they have most positions covered. Barring any drastic moves, we basically need a starting left-fielder, a bench, a back end of the bullpen and hopefully a SS. (This also does not take into account the team's plans for Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa, who I would think we will use as rotational depth and start them in AAA.)

The other thing everyone should note is that there is a lot of money coming off the books in 2011. We only have $50M committed for that season so there is flexibility going into the future. Given that, I could see the Sox taking a temporary bump in payroll up to $140-150M, but after signing a LFer, we would basically be there. So for everyone out there thinking about big moves, it might be a little hard given the current payroll situation. We should expect one of Jason Bay/Matt Holliday then some cheap depth moves. Given our roster construction, we just do not have room to be doing much else. (Though a trade could change everything.)

Is Jonathon Papelbon Okay?

BTLove — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 20:49:37 -0000

At first glance the answer seems simple. Papelbon has 21 saves, and only 2 blown saves; he is pitching to an incredibly effective 1.70 ERA; he only has one loss. All of these stats would lead you to believe the guy is having one of the best years of his short, magnificent career. But anyone that has been watching the guy pitch all year will tell you that he is not getting batters out as easily as he has in the past. His saves seem to be taking a little extra effort. And looking at the numbers, the way he has been pitching he's lucky that his ERA is not closer to his FIP of 3.93.

Paps' control is simply not there this year. That much is obvious. Already he's matched his career high in walks for a season (17) and has walked more than twice as many guys as last year (8 BB's). His BB/9 is 4.14, more than twice is career total and 4 times the rate he was walking guys last year.

So how has a guy who is putting people on base at a significantly higher rate than in the past not getting lit up? Mostly because of his entirely unsustainable Left On Base Rate of 96.9%. So of the 48 men that have rached base against Papelbon this season (probably a few more, but I'm not sure how many have reached on errors), only three of them have managed to score (and one or two of those runners must have scored once he was pulled or something because of the slightly off LOB%). A rate that high is a result of a run of good fortune and most likely will not sustain for the second half of the season.

There appears to be a few contributers to the higher walk rate. One, he is simply throwing less pitches inside the strike zone. This year only 49.5% of his pitches are inside the zone, compared to 57.1%, 55.9% and 54.5% in his three dominant seasons. Also, batters are chasing fewer pitches outside of the zone this season, swinging at only 26.6% of pitches thrown outside the K-Zone, compared to 29.5%, 31.3% and 34.3% in the previous three seasons.

These two are most likely related. Batters realize that he is hitting the strike zone less, so they swing less in general, as shown by a significantly decreased Swing%. So what has happened to Paps' control? I have no clue, but I do know that at some point it will catch up to him. A pitcher simply cannot walk as many people as Paps' this year and expect to be successful. A walk rate around 4 BB/9 is more similar to someone like Jose Mesa, a guy who regularly saved 40 games per year, but blew 7 or 8 in the process. That is simply not acceptable, and hopefully Paps figures it out before he starts actually costing the Sox games.

Obviously there is not anything the Sox should do about this. His 3.93 FIP is still very good, but it is simply a long way off from the low 2 FIP's that he has put up in the past. Basically this year he has pitched more like a Jose Mesa in his prime than a Mariano Rivera in his prime. And luckily this season the Sox have enough great pitchers in the bullpen that they have themselves covered in case he does blow a few saves.

Nota Bene:

Paps has only pitched 37 innings this year. That is not very many and there is a chance that all of those walks are just statistical noise. Last night's outing, where he struck out the side and did not walk anyone lowered his FIP by .3 or so. So all it takes is a few innings like that and Paps' numbers would be right back to his career norms.

Also, I was going to mention something about how he is no longer throwing his Splitter, but I'm not sure that is true. PitchFx seems to think that he has replaced the splitter with a two-seam fastball, but the Baseball Info Solutions data that FG's carries on its "Season Stats" pages is still recording 10% of pitches as splitters. What I suspect is that he is throwing that splitter differently and it is confusing the computers that keep track of these things. If that is the case, maybe his inability to locate the splitter is causing many of these walks? I am not really familiar enough with these computer systems and algorithms to draw any conclusions about any of that.

More DH Trade Targets

BTLove — Fri, 29 May 2009 17:08:44 -0000

As everyone knows, David Ortiz has been absolutely terrible. And, as we've all been discussing, it has to be about time for the Sox to make some contingency plans. The trade talk stuff has been popping up all over the site, so I thought I would try to consolidate the info a little. Here are the guys I think will be most talked about in the next few weeks.

The Guys That We've Already Discussed:

Victor Martinez

would take too much considering that he wouldn't be playing a whole lot of catcher for us.

Adam Dunn:

Seems like a good fit, but the Nats seem to be asking for a lot right now.

Nick Johnson:

Also a good fit, but injury prone and the Nats want Bowden. Too much.

Adrian Gonzalez:

Absolute pipe-dream.

Other Guys That are in the Rumor-Mill:

Brad Hawpe:

09:$5.5M, 10:$7.5M, 11:$10M club option ($0.5M buyout)
This is an interesting one that we have not yet discussed. He makes reasonable money and is a good (and sometimes great) hitter. He is absolutely mashing this year with an OPS of 1.008. However, how would he do away from Coors? He is about 30 OPS points better at home than away for his career, but that does not seem too bad considering he plays in the NL West and plays a lot of games in LA and San Diego, two of the biggest pitcher parks in the league. He is a true DH, with a UZR of -37.2! last year.
I think it is a solid fit and the Rockies are an easier trade partner than the Nats. He should come cheaper than Holliday to the A's, so maybe MDC and a lower tier prosepct?

Matt Holliday:

He's starting to pick it up, but still does not look like the MVP-type hitter he was in the past. My guess is that he would take a lot, but we would get 2 high draft picks if he walked after the year, so we should take that into account.

Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera:

I put these guys in because someone just floated the idea in a Fanpost, but I do not think either are available with the way their teams are playing. Maybe in the offseason for either though.

Carlos Lee:

09:$18.5M, 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M, 12:$18.5M.
He makes a ton of money and is signed for a few too many years. But if the Astros were to pay some of his contract, it might make sense. However, I read on mlbtraderumors.com that he would not waive his no-trade claue no matter what, so probably a moot point.

Mark Derosa:

09:$5.5M
He can play all over the field and would let us rotate Bay, Drew, Youk, Lowell or even Pedroia into the DH spot if we want. However, he is at best an .800 OPS hitter and would probably take a lot to acquire (the Indians seem to like to "win" all of thier trades and might demand a ransom for Derosa).
I think we could get just as good production by plugging Bailey or Carter into the DH spot everyday.

Austin Kearns:

09:$8M, 10:$10M club option ($1M buyout)
The least desireable of the Nationals options. He has a career .786 OPS, but is at .730 this year and .627 next year. Like Derosa, I do not think he is significantly better than Bailey or Carter at this point.

Jeff Franceour:

please, no.

The White Sox Hitters

The White Sox were buyers just last week with the Jake Peavy deal, and are only 5 games back, but I think we should all be rooting for an extended slump in the next few weeks because they have some pretty solid hitters who are all playing well this year and fit the "rent-a-player" mold that a lot of us would prefer.

Jim Thome:

Final year of his deal and currently putting up an OPS of .895. Perfect DH.

Jermaine Dye:

Also in the last year of his contract (with a 2010 mutual option). OPS of .872 on the year. It would be nice to trade for someone that we could rotate into the OF a little bit. I think this would be a great fit.

Paul Konerko:

09: $12M 10:$12M.

He has another year on his deal, so I would prefer the other guys. But Konerko is hitting well (.870 OPS) and we could rotate him in at 1B to give Lowell/Youk some days off.

Chicago is an aggressive front office, so if they do fall out of contention, I think Dye and Thome will definitely be on the trading block. Who will they want back? Probably Bowden or someone good, but maybe we could get it done for cheaper than that.

There should be a lot of options out there, so hopefully we can get something done. Personally, I do not want to give up Bowden or Bucholz unless we get Adrian Gonzalez, Fielder or Cabrera, and I don't think any of that is happening. It should be an interesting next few weeks.

Damon: Why NY is better than Boston

BTLove — Tue, 05 May 2009 18:49:05 -0000

I saw this today on FanGraphs. It looks like Johnny Damon had a few things to say last night about the differences between the Red Sox and the Yankees organizations:

“I couldn’t believe that they were letting [Varitek] walk and try to find a team,” said Damon. “That’s the difference between New York and Boston. … If you’re a part of New York, they’re going to keep you there: (Jorge) Posada, (Derek) Jeter, Mariano (Rivera), it’s the first time in history guys have been on the same team for 15 years.

“It goes to show you something about how the Yankees think, and how many Yankees players have been exclusive with one team. They keep them forever,” Damon continued. “(The Red Sox) were ready to let (Varitek) go. He’s their starting catcher. That’s how the two teams work. You know his days are going to be numbered here. But hopefully not -- he deserves to be here until his career is over.”

Now I've been one of those guys who has kinda given Damon a free pass (same with all the guys on the 2004 WS roster), but we all gotta call BS on this one. The reason Damon didn't stay with the Red Sox was because the Yankees were able to offer more money. There is no such team out there that can outbid the Yankees for players. The reason Posada, Jeter and Mariano have all been there so long is because the Yankees offered each of them more money than any other team was able. Those three cost almost $50 million this year alone. Its not like guys are staying in NY for discounted prices. (Roger and Pettite fled the coop when given the chance.)

Not to mention that the Red Sox seem to have taken the perfect strategy for building a winning team. We have lowered our payroll in the last few years and made our team better at the same time. Basically, I think Damon resents that we won another WS without him. And even more likely, hes already lobbying for another contract from the MFY.

Jeff Bailey Question

BTLove — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 03:59:55 -0000

So I know that Bailey used to play catcher. And I knew that he did not stick their because of defensive issues, but I had no idea the exact nature of his deficiencies. According to the answer to the first question in Amalie Benjamin's mailbag:

[Bailey] used to be a catcher until he got a mental block that wouldn't allow him to throw back to the pitcher's mound.

What?! I had no idea. Is that true? Does anyone have any information about this? That is the exact plot of Major League II. Can't we just get Jake Taylor to give him a Playboy? Basically all of our catcher problems would be solved if Jeff Bailey could just throw a damn baseball back to the pitcher?

On a related not, I would much rather have Jeff Bailey on this team than Brad Wilkerson.

Bard hits 100 on Radar Gun

BTLove — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 23:31:17 -0000

Bard hits 100 on Radar Gun

Wow. Just wow.

Its gonna be fun when this guy comes up.

Manny Gets His Money

BTLove — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 03:16:15 -0000

Manny Gets His Money

$20 billion for Manny, according to the Onion.

Spring Training Stories I'm Watching

BTLove — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 02:07:38 -0000

I personally hate steroids talk, so I thought we could steer the discussion towards actual baseball.

Pitchers and catchers report in two days, Youk is already there and we got an exhibition against BC in two weeks so its almost time to start looking at some actual baseball scores and make conclusions about our team. There aren't really too many storylines to follow, but this what I'll be looking at:

1. Backup catcher. Allan wrote a really good primer a few days ago discussing the catcher situation. There was no real consensus as to whom we'll open the season with as Tek's backup from everyone in that thread. Personally, I'm rooting for Kottaras. He's out of options so if we send him down he might be gone; he has experience with the knuckle and if platooned correctly with Tek they actually could be effective (meaning limit Tek's at bats from the left side).

2. Who will be the 25th man? With Mark Kotsay out for the first month or so of the season we have a roster spot up for grabs. The safe money has to be on Brad Wilkerson, but I think if Rocco shows that he can be dependable as the 4th outfielder they might go with Bailey or Carter; guys that can actually be productive with the bat.

3. How will the bullpen shake out? who will be the number 2 behind Paps? will Saito's arm be ready to go (he says it already is)? will Masterson keep it up? and I'm excited to see Ramon Ramirez in action. I think the order will be pretty fluid all year, but it'll be interesting to see how Tito lines it up to start the year; will he trust the new guys?

4. The young pitchers. Bucholz will be back in action trying to regain some confidence. Bowden will get some starts to show his stuff too. Neither will make the big club out of spring training, but a good performance could get them up in the majors as soon as someone is injured or ineffective.

5. Brad Penny. Is he healthy? will he be effective?

6. Everyone else's health. Ortiz's wrist, Lowell's hip, JD Drew in general. As we all know, there are a bunch of health questions around this team.

7. Lars! we'll get a look at Lars Anderson with the big boys. If we performs, we might see a mid-season call-up when/if Papi or Mikey ends up on the DL.

I think we'll have a hell of a team. BP projects us to win 98 games and win the AL East by one game. I'm about ready to watch some baseball.

Any other stories you guys are watching?

FanGraphs' "Value"

BTLove — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 05:35:30 -0000

So over the last few days there have been a bunch of discussions in various threads about the new "value" stats over at FanGraphs. I thought we could get a more coherent discussion going here and kinda figure this thing out.

First off, for everyone that is unfamiliar, over at Fangraphs they have put together an all-inclusive type stat that combines fielding, batting as well as positional adjustments to show how many wins a player is worth. Those guys can explain it a lot better than I can, so here are some links to their explanations:

Part 5 - Converting Runs to Wins

Part 6 - Dollars

Part 7 - Additional Info

And for Pitchers

So there have been a lot of critiques of the the results in our threads. The biggest problem for people seems to be the money amounts that show how much the player was worth that year. Just to be clear for everyone that didn't read the explanations; these money amounts are what the player would be worth in free agency. More specifically, it is what a GM would pay that player if he somehow knew how the player would perform. Because it is their free agency values, most players are underpaid because most players are not free agents. Many players are also overpaid, usually aging veterans that can no longer cut it.

Other critiques:

For their pitching values, they us FIP (fielding independent pitching). FIP numbers for many pitchers are much different than their ERA's because it attempts to only take into account what the pitcher can control. Thus, Dice-K has a high FIP because he puts so many guys on base. I'm not sure this is the best way to do it because it is not a results-based stat.

They put a ton of value on position, so Varitek was actually worth a full win last year. Also Pedroia last year was better than Manny ever was with the Sox (or at least from 2002 on, since the numbers only go back that far.)

I really like the stat as it puts other stats into much more concrete terms. It has some issues, but overall I hope these numbers become a bigger and bigger part of our discussions around here.