I recently came across a link to a 2011 game 159 overflow thread here on VEB, and in that thread was a link to video of Rafael Furcal's HR to eventually win that game. That started me down a trail to various other links to video of Cardinals' September/October highlights, and I figured it would be good to share that document of the wildly implausible fantastitude of last fall with VEB. I'm sure I've missed some good postseason highlights, so please feel free to include them in the comments!

Continue reading this post »

Seems like it would be cool to see how VEB collectively thinks the playoffs will play out, so here's a quick FanPost for it. I don't know if there will be enough responses to make it worthwhile tabulating them, but if you're interested in being part of a tabulation and held up for admiration and/or scorn once October's over, enter your predictions in a comma-delimited line using the team numbers 1-8 and the seven series in the order listed below. The winner will be showered with praise. The loser will be taunted and booed until my throat is sore.

NLDS 1 - Cardinals (1) vs. Phillies (2)
NLDS 2 - Diamondbacks (3) vs. Brewers (4)
ALDS 1 - Rays (5) vs. Rangers (6)
ALDS 2 - Tigers (7) vs. Yankees (8)
NLDS 1, NLDS 2, ALDS 1, ALDS 2, NLCS, ALCS, WS

My picks:
LDS - Phillies over Birds, Brewers over DBacks, Rangers over Rays, Tigers over Yankees
LCS - Phillies over Brewers, Tigers over Rangers
WS - Phillies over Tigers
2, 4, 6, 7, 2, 7, 2

With the season officially (if not mathematically) half over, this seems like a good time to ask about whether some players with big question marks over their heads are going to contribute in the second half. I'm curious what folks here think, so I thought I'd throw these names out and see what you expect from them.

Rather than ask everyone to predict specific stats for each player, I thought it would be interesting to ask a more general question - which of the following players will make a significant contribution to the Cards in the second half? The phrase "significant contribution" is obviously open to some interpretation; I figured I'd let everyone decide what they think it means, making this a broad optimistic/pessimistic question. It's sort of a gestalt view of what the VEB group expects from these players; I realize the yes/no format will be frustratingly vague to some, so please feel free to add some non-gestalty details or stat predictions too. For reference, I've included some (major league) numbers for each player for the past 2-3 seasons; the HR totals are based on 162 game averages, prorated for the 71 games left this year. One possible interpretation of "significant contribution" would be will they put up the numbers you expected of them back in the offseason, before various injuries, anxieties, surgeries, and incompetencies came to pass. But feel free to use your own interpretation (and feel free to explain it).

Rick Ankiel: He announced going into the ASB that he was still dealing with significant pain and stiffness from his collision with the outfield wall in early May. Presumably a few days off has helped a little, but a few days can only do so much. Even before the collision his slash lines were .247/.326/.395 with 2 HR, well below average for his brief outfield career so far.
Stats (2007-2008): .270/.334/.515, 15 HR

Mark DeRosa: The latest word is that he'll need surgery in the offseason to repair his wrist, but he hopes to play through the injury the rest of the season. FWIW, he had a pain-free batting practice today and personally hopes to play as early as Saturday.
Stats (2006-2008): .291/.368/.453, 7 HR

Chris Duncan: There's been considerable speculation here that he's still dealing with the effects of his neck surgery. As far as I know there haven't been any specific statements to that effect from the Cards medical staff, but there wouldn't necessarily be if he's just dealing with lingering weakness or stiffness. Or maybe he just hasn't humped a trophy lately. We all have needs.
Stats (2006-2008): .267/.355/.486, 12 HR

Troy Glaus: He's hitting - not well - at Palm Beach, but still can't throw. There was a rumor recently that he would need a second surgery (which would presumably sideline him for the year), but as far as I know there hasn't been anything definitive about that.
Stats (2006-2008): .261/.364/.491, 14 HR

Khalil Greene: Apparently playing with Springfield tonight. Rotowire says he could be back in St. Louis "by next weekend," but I doubt too many people would be willing to put money on that. Last time he came back he homered in three straight games, then he got beaned.
Stats (2006-2008): .240/.291/.421, 10 HR

Brett Wallace: My strong impression is that most of the relevant people in the organization are very much against bringing him up this year, but what do I know? It shouldn't be too surprising that a walrus is somewhat ungainly at third, but with those tusks he's a lot less likely to get Hee-Seop Choi'ed than Rolen.
Stats: Nothing to see here; move along.

Todd Wellemeyer: Since Joel Pineiro stole the magic beans Welley got from Duncan, he's gone back to pre-2007 Welley. Except now he's doing it for 4-5 innings at a time instead of 1-2 innings at a time.
Stats (2007-2008): 3.95 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 10 HR allowed

Trade: Finally, just for fun - will there be at least one person not currently in the organization who will make a significant contribution? It could be a pitcher, a hitter, a back-up for Fredbird... will we make any "impact" trade this summer?
Stats (2006-2008): Just for fun, imagine Halladay's stats here. Turns out they're really good.

I don't know of a convenient way to do a single poll incorporating all these guys, so if folks are interested I figured we could to a comma-delimited list of yes/no answers, like we do for preseason predictions, and if there are a decent number of responses I'll tabulate them next week. To start things off, for the following order:

Ankiel,DeRosa,Duncan,Glaus,Greene,Wallace,Wellemeyer,Trade

my answers are

no,yes,no,no,no,no,yes,no

Continue reading this post »

Apologies for the double post, but I just put this on the morning thread then saw that a game thread was up, and it seems like a reasonable topic/question for a diary.

Does anyone know what sort of insurance teams usually have on their high $$ players? I vaguely remember an insurance-related issue with Bagwell a couple years ago, where whether or not Houston could recover any of his salary for the year (from the insurance company, not him) depended on if/how much he played in spring training.

Taking Carp's example, it looks quite possible that he's done for this year, and maybe 2008 as well. Do the Cards have an insurance policy on him? Can we recover anything if he only pitches one regular season game this year? Can we recover anything if he doesn't pitch at all next year?

I just did some fancy internet sleuthing (OK, it took one google search, and I found everything at the Birdhouse) to track down the ST radio broadcast schedule, and I figured some folks here might be interested. The first broadcast will be the Mets game on Thursday; more info (including ST TV broadcast info) here:
http://stlcardinals.scout.com/2/612398.html
I hope this isn't old news on VEB....

On an unrelated note, there's a feature on Eckstein at Yahoo Sports:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=As6VPYjZjjhP9TVzkAcaxcQRvLYF?slug=ti-mlb_07_eckstein022707& ;prov=yhoo&type=lgns

A number of folks here and elsewhere have stated or implied that 83 wins is representative of how good the Cardinals were last year, and often how good they'll be this year since they haven't made any big moves. But how many people really think that 83 wins is indicative of how much talent is on this team? A number of important players were injured or underachieved last year - Edmonds, Mulder, and Izzy had extended injury-related performance issues. Eckstein missed a bunch of games. Marquis was terrible. Ponson was a failed experiment. Molina can't possibly be as bad a hitter as his numbers last year suggest (and his BABIP bears this out; I don't remember what it was but it was atrocious). Rolen was solid but wore down. Pujols missed a few weeks and had about 60 fewer AB than in past years.

Now Edmonds and Izzy appear to be healed (or close to it for Edmonds), Pujols feels great, Rolen is another year removed from surgery and that much stronger. Marquis and Ponson are gone and replaced by pitchers who will almost surely be improvements even if they're not great. Molina's hitting will have to be better (OK, not World Series good, but not .595 OPS either...). We've got Duncan for a whole season, and Reyes and Wainwright have another year's experience. We'll see what happens with Mulder, but until July his replacement can't possibly be as bad as he was last year unless I get the call.

Don't forget, last year's team was on pace for 100 wins through the middle of June (42-26 on June 18, right before they lost 20-6 at Chicago and things turned ugly). I don't think they're a 100 win team, but I don't think they're an 83 win team either. Low 90s seems completely achievable. (And that seems to be the general consensus here too based on michajo's 2007 win prediction diary, so I think I just answered my own question. Well, I spent all this time typing, so I guess I'll post anyway....)

From http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Albjw3OTflYg45m1yc.e66ERvLYF?slug=ap-giants-mathenyretires& ;prov=ap&type=lgns

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Mike Matheny's decision to retire was made for him. His doctor refused to clear the longtime catcher to play in 2007 after a concussion sidelined him for the final four months of last season.

Matheny's announcement Thursday that he is hanging up his catching gear after 13 major league seasons came as no surprise. He didn't play again for the San Francisco Giants after May 31 following a series of foul tips he took in the mask -- and doctors warned him that he was more susceptible to even further damage if he received another blow.

-----

Here's hoping he's back with the Cards as a coach soon.

This is probably old news here, but I haven't seen it mentioned. I was curious what Mike Matheny's status was when I saw that the Giants had signed Bengie Molina to a three year deal. I finally did a little looking around, and was surprised to find that Matheny's career is probably done due to the concussion he sustained last year. I knew it was pretty bad, but I didn't realize just how serious it was. I'm sorry that this is how the career of the "Toughest Man Alive" may end. He's also one of the classiest men in baseball, as near as I can tell, and I'm sure just about everyone would agree that the Cards owe a lot to him for Yadi's talents behind the plate.