SB Nation User Blog: BadMaafala

[Sighs in Relief]

BadMaafala — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 19:49:52 -0000

Yet, he’s predicting those changes will be sweeping in the off-season, and primary among those to leave will be offensive coordinator Bruce Arians.

Link

It's a paid article, so I didn't want to post any more of it, but I'll at least give you the best sentence. "He" in the quote is Jim Wexell's Steelers insider "The Answer Man" who probably knows what he's talking about.

Okay, one more sentence, regarding Arians' potential replacement:

“You go out and you find someone Ben has never met. In my opinion, he needs an entirely new dynamic. And after you do that, you call Ben into your office and remind him that he’s not in charge of this organization; you remind him who signs those big checks; you remind him to buy in completely; and you make sure that it’s understood.”

Om...

Playcalling Notes From FO Analysts

BadMaafala — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 21:53:08 -0000

Football Outsiders always have some fun and insightful comments about most of the games on a given weekend and publish them in a feature called "Audibles at the Line". In this week's edition, there's a bit of objective commentary on the Thursday game. Mike Tanier, who I think might actually be a Steelers fan (although he still does fine objective or even a little pessimistic commentary) wrote the following about the fact the no one ever seemed to get open:

Part of the "nobody getting open" was the play calls. The Steelers seemed to be running a bunch of little hook and stick routes, usually with Ward, Miller, and Wallace or somebody, with Holmes running deep. Against man coverage, the slower receivers got no separation on these routes, then had to turn and stop. Meanwhile, Big Ben was getting sacked while Holmes worked deep.

This happened a few times in the first and second quarter, and I kept wondering why they were calling these "zone-breaker" plays against a team running a lot of man. And why they were emptying the backfield against a team that likes to blitz from the outside. And why they always run from a single-back formation even though Mendenhall looks like an I-back based on his running style. And so on.

I've mentioned multiple times that the Steelers' offense seems to really struggle against teams that run man coverage, and while I don't have the football knowledge or time to dissect the film to figure out why that is or how to fix it, what Tanier says rings true to me.

There are other problems with the team, injuries, mental lapses, etc, and I don't know what the better alternatives are, but I am sure that Bruce Arians is bad at his job. I've been hesitant to cite specific things like, "we should run/pass more on all/1st/second" downs (although that 3rd and 1 empty set was pretty tough to watch). I've always felt the problem was more subtle. It's stuff like running "zone breaker" routes against man blitz schemes that make him a bad OC.

Subtle or no, a head coach should be able to figure this stuff out and find better options. Identifying and surrounding himself with capable personnel is his primary job.

Book excerpt

BadMaafala — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 21:35:22 -0000

Book excerpt

Not Steelers related, but an interesting article on the philosophical appeal of football.

Santonio Holmes and the WR situation

BadMaafala — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:48:00 -0000

Here are the 3 game statistics for passes intended for Santonio Holmes:

Game	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yards	YPA	TD	Int	Rating
TEN	9	11	82%	131	11.9	1	1	108.7
CHI	5	14	36%	83	5.9	0	0	56.5
CIN	1	5	20%	18	3.6	0	1	2.5
Total	15	30	50	232	7.7	1	2	59.3

Here are the 3 games statistics for passes intended for all other receivers:

Game	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yards	YPA	TD	Int	Rating
TEN	24	32	75%	232	7.3	0	1	81.8
CHI	18	21	86%	138	6.6	1	1	90.1
CIN	21	26	81%	258	9.9	1	0	120.8
Total	63	79	80%	628	7.9	2	2	105.6

The stats largely speak for themselves, but since interceptions are such non-repeatable phenomena (i.e. the stats don't tell you about hail mary's, missed reads, etc), I'll look at each of them specifically. Roethlisberger has thrown 4 interceptions on the year. One was a hail mary at the end of the half in the Tennessee game ("intended" for Mike Wallace) that no one should take the blame for. One was on the deep ball to Wallace; we can argue what would have happened if Ben hadn't been hit or that Wallace didn't adjust to the ball very well, but it's hard to say that interception is primarily on anyone other than the blocking, specifically Max Starks, who got beat inside when he had outside help. The only interception that was clearly completely Ben's fault was the pass he overthrew to a covered Holmes in the Tennessee game. The fourth interception was in the Cinci game when Holmes missed a hot read and ran his normal route instead of a slant. So that's 1 interception on the QB, 1 on Holmes, 1 on the OL, and 1 dong interception.

I'm often hesitant to conclude very much from football statistics ("by employing linear extrapolation we can tell that Roethlisberger will put up a -634.7 passer rating while passing to Holmes in week 15"), but it's pretty obvious that Holmes was absolutely wretched in weeks 2 and 3 and a big part of why we lost both games. It should also be noted how positively Reggie-Wayne-like he was in week 1: if you take away the interception that was all on Ben, he gave his QB a rating of 146.6. He's one of the main reasons we won that game.

In my opinion, this offense can only be great if Santonio Holmes is great. The rest of our roster of pass catchers is filled with upside guys, complementary pieces, and veteran leadership. Ward, when he's not committing "pass interference" (emphasis on the quotes), can still get open, but he's no longer a big threat with the ball in his hands. Miller is a similar threat. Moore is a great outlet receiver, but he's not the centerpiece of an offense. Wallace is extraordinarily promising, but, like the rookie he is, he still misses downfield blocks and steps out of bounds for no reason. Sweed can apparently get separation anywhere on the field but even drops the balls he catches.

Holmes is the only player on our roster who is ready now to be both a go-to-guy and a scoring threat on any given play. Who else on the roster could catch 9 passes and yield a 11.9 YPA in a given game? Who else can attack all levels of the secondary like Holmes? When Ben has thrown to receivers other than Holmes, he has an amazing 80% completion percentage, but that has only given him a much less amazing 7.9 YPA and a downright boring 10.0 yards per completion (Holmes has a career 16.5 YPC). Wallace, or even Sweed, could turn into a threat like Holmes, but they're not there yet.

I have no idea if Holmes' problems over the past 2 games are simply a lack of concentration, the result of a vague wrist injury, or something completely different, but we need Holmes to be "great", like he was in the playoffs last year and like he was in week 1. The defense may not be quite as good as it was last year, but when Polamalu gets healthy, it will be fine. The offensive line has been better than expected (better than I expected, anyway), Roethlisberger has been outstanding, and even the offensive playcalling has improved some over last year. The missing piece (other than a miraculously resurrected running game) is a consistently dynamic playmaker on offense that can score from anywhere on the field. If Holmes can fill that role in the offense on a week to week basis, we can play with any team in the NFL. If not, however, no one else is ready to step into that role and we'll continue to struggle to put teams away.

Rangers sign Scheppers

BadMaafala — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 20:09:35 -0000

Rangers sign Scheppers

Just a minor blip on the radar, but it's not like there's anything else to talk about. It says he signed for over $1M, but there's no figure.

Brian Friday

BadMaafala — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 15:25:03 -0000

After looking like a no-hit (or at least a no-power) SS prospect for a good portion of his career, Brian Friday has been impressive in 114 AB's this year. On one hand, his K% has been steady (17.5 vs 17.7) and his BB% has only improved insignificantly (9.5 vs 8.0). On the other hand, he's doing all that at a higher level, he has hit the same number of HR's in 114 AB at AA as he did in his previous 519 AB in A ball, and his XB% has jumped from 7.7% to 12.3%. His BABIP is currently sitting at .367, which seems high to me, but it's not much higher than his previous career average of .341, and if his power has truly improved it could account for the higher BABIP.

I know he's drawn pretty good reviews with his glove, and his RF/G and Fld% metrics compare favorably to Bixler, so if he's developing some real power, he could suddenly be a pretty good prospect. What does everyone else think? Could he be our starting SS in 2011? Is the power here to stay? Did he juice up over the offseason or just develop power like a lot of 22-23 year olds? Is he just getting lucky? I'm nowhere near as knowledgeable about these things as many around BD, so I'd love some other opinions.

Coonelly Chat

BadMaafala — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 20:44:05 -0000

Coonelly Chat

Coonelly talks about the draft, Sano, money, prospect development, and the importance of having sparkpluginess in his managers. Always nice to hear what actual baseball people have to say, even if they have to be somewhat guarded.

Day 1 Thoughts

BadMaafala — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 05:13:17 -0000

More photos » by Michael Norris - AP

8 months ago: Missouri defensive tackle Evander Hood reacts as he talks on a cellphone with the Pittsburgh Steelers after they selected him 32nd overall in the first round of the NFL Draft during draft watch party at the Ambassador Hotel in Amarillo, Texas, Saturday, April 25, 2009. (AP Photo/The Amarillo Globe News, Michael Norris)

Browse more photos »

The Steelers pulled off a very solid day one. I have been full of Ziggy-love since I started looking into the DL prospects, and we got him while staying put. There's a lot to like about him: he's got good size for a 3-4 DE (it'd be nice to have another inch or two, but he still has long arms), he was productive in college, he stood out among top competition at the Senior Bowl, he had absolutely fantastic tests at the combine (which tells me he has a ton of upside), he could grow into both a good pass rusher and a good run stuffer, and he should be able to drop into coverage on occasion, too. Nothing has stood out more to me, though, than how coachable and how good of a teammate everyone says he is. I think he's an absolutely perfect fit as a Steeler and as a one gap 5 technique 3-4 zone blitz DE. He was a very solid value at one of our biggest needs.

Now onto the trade.

When you say "a 2nd and a 4th for two 3rds", it sounds like a wash, but here's another way of saying it: we traded the 64th and 132nd picks for the 79th and 84th picks. Yet another way: we traded down 15 picks into the third and up 48 picks from the 4th. The infallible "draft value chart", which means a lot more in later rounds than in the first, says we traded 270 + 40 = 310 points for 195 + 170 = 365 points. But it gets better. The best prospect we could have drafted at a position of need at 2.64 was probably Jarron Gilbert (who I know gets some people's hearts pumping around here), but we just got Hood, and it would be a lot nicer to get some OL's and DB's. With William Beatty and Sean Smith going right before our pick, there wasn't a great value there. Jamon Meredith would have been a decent pick, but instead they traded for 2 picks the middle of the 3rd, which also coincides with a very nice value pocket of OL's. Whatever they're looking for, it should be available around those picks. If they want maulers, Robinson and Johnson may be there. If they want tackles, there's Cadogan, Kropog, Tupou, Fulton, and maybe even Meredith. There are two solid centers likely to be there, Luigs and Caldwell, and a handful of other IOL's as well. Not only did they get better picks in the trade, they maneuvered to a position were the best values coincide with their biggest need. We're in a place where we'll probably be able to draft 2 OL's in our next 3 picks without reaching. It's hard to be sure what's going to happen in the next 14 picks, but this could look like a brilliant trade in a few hours.

My only regret for the day is that they gave up the pick they'd probably have to use to draft the other DL I've been pimping, Roy Miller. I'm also not sure who they'd target as a possible DB in the third if they're looking for a Madden Curse contingency plan, although there are probably some decent options.

BMF's Mock Draft

BadMaafala — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:36:19 -0000

I appreciate all of those of y'all who have submitted mocks in the fanposts section. All informative and entertaining as we count the final days down to the draft. For a few select folks who have been posting rigorously here about the draft for multiple years, their final mocks are deserving of a front page gander by all. Let's take a look at what BMF thinks during the final week of educated speculation. - Blitz-

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I never got to finish my draft value charts because of a few changes around here (a new house and some travel for work), but here's my mock draft. I'm shooting for "optimistic, yet plausible", since that's how good drafts usually work - if you're not getting good values at your spot, you're not drafting right. Anyway, tell me what you think.

1. Vontae Davis CB, Illinois - I like Butler the most of all the late first round DB's, but him falling here might be a little too optimistic. Davis has some question marks, but he's a better athlete and has the speed to eventually take Ike Taylor's role. They brought him in instead of Butler, so they must not be too turned off by the attitude questions.

Also, this is a complete hunch, but I have a weird feeling that we could be targeting Evander Hood for a trade-up in the first. He's too much of a perfect fit as a Steelers DE for us NOT to have brought him in for a visit. I doubt it will actually happen, but I will be accepting pats on the back if it does.

Other possibilities: Hood, Butler, Britton, Wood

(Rounds 2-7 after the break)

2. Fili Moala DE/DT, USC - Of all the defensive linemen in the draft, I think Moala has the best chance to end up as a Steeler. Much like Aaron Smith, he's strong and hard working, and he has the athleticism to work his way down the line and make the tackle. We brought him in for a visit, and I could even see us packaging a 5th to make sure we get him in the second. He could step into the rotation right away and solidify the future of the line.

Other possibilities: Meredith, Mickens, Byrd

3. Antione Caldwell C, Alabama - Based on how I see this draft working out, we're most likely to take an OL in the third. Unless we trade our pick or someone falls a lot, there will probably be better values at other positions in the first and second. I really like Caldwell as a potentially dominant force in the middle - NFL Draft Scout likens him to Jeff Hartings for what that's worth. He doesn't fit in great with the zone blocking system, but neither do any of our current OL's or most of the prospects we brought in. I have no idea if they're going to keep using the "zone blocking with man blockers" system they have in place or if they'll finally admit we're only ever going to be a running team, but they sure haven't hinted that they're looking at pass blockers.

Other possibilities: Cadogan, Kropog, Levitre

4. Roy Miller DT, Texas - Despite playing for Texas, having good production and game tape, and putting up outstanding workout numbers, Roy Miller has been largely under the radar. I've seen projections with him in the 6th or 7th, but he won't actually last that long. He might even be worth a 3rd rounder. Maybe he needs to gain some excess weight and take plays off to get noticed. Anyway, he's a legitimate NT candidate with good upper and lower body strength, a squatty Hamptonesque frame that can anchor against the double team, and good initial quickness to win the leverage battle. If the draft played out as I'm suggesting, I'd be the most excited about this pick.

5a. Andrew Gardner OT, Georgia Tech - At some point, we need to draft an OT, so here we go. Gardner is a pretty good athlete who plays hard. I'm not sure he's enough of an athlete to be a long term solution at LT, but he could be decent on the right or as a backup. We could go with Lydon Myrtha, who is a great athlete with a long history of minor injuries, but I think we play it safer and get Gardner here.

5b. Mike Wallace WR, Mississippi - Now that Nate Washington has developed to the point where he could actually start somewhere, it's time to draft another unfinished track star who can frustrate us for a few years and leave once he gets good. This pick might be one of my more optimistic, and I wouldn't be shocked if he was selected in the 4th - even by us. He has those workout numbers that drive GM's bananas.

6. Dan Gronkowski TE, Maryland - Gronkowski is a good blocker and the Steelers could use a good blocking TE if they're going to keep running out of 2 TE sets. He also has decent athleticism and hands, so he could make us forget about the Matt Spaeth experiment if we drafted him. He reminds me a bit of Jerame Tuman.

7a. Zach Potter DE, Nebraska - He may not make it to our 7th rounders, but if he did, he'd finish the transformation of our DL. He looks like a Keisel-type who could really make his mark as a backup and special teamer. Hopefully he could help rid us of guys like Paxson and Roye.

7b. Andrew Hartline OT, Central Michigan - Hartline is a pretty good athlete who needs some work. He could hang onto the practice squad or even the inactive roster for a year while he gets bigger and hopefully contribute his sophmore season. We could use some more upside on our OL.

BTSC 2009 Steelers Draft Analysis: The Offensive Line

BadMaafala — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 21:27:55 -0000

Previous posts by Bad Maafala:

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Introduction: Improving The Offensive Line in 2009

As I said in my intro post, I don't think we should stick with our newly instated Zone Blocking Scheme for the running game (from now on referred to as ZBS, per steelguy99). However, if the Steelers have any plans to change it, they're keeping them top secret, so I'm doing this chart with ZBS type linemen in mind.

In the ZBS, a premium is put on pass blocking, athleticism, lateral agility, and intelligence. Elite strength isn't quite as important, neither is pulling ability. However, considering that we're going to face NT's like Rogers, Ngata, Williams, and Wilfork on a regular basis, we're going to want to consider a Center's ability to handle those guys in both the running game and pass protection. Lower body strength is key, as is playing with proper leverage and firing off the ball quickly. At Tackle, it'd be nice to get a top tier athlete who could make us more comfortable when speed rushers come after Ben's blind side.

The 2009 OL Class & BTSC Value Chart

Last year, the quality of the OL class got talked about a lot, but this year has more top tier talent and better depth. While there is possibly a void at the Guard position, I can't remember a year that there were so many strong, intelligent, athletic, and versatile Centers (see commentary below). At Tackle, there are 2 guys who are going in the top-5, a good group of well-developed, pro-ready types available after them (Britton, Tupou, Kropog, Cadogan), and an impressive set of elite athletes who should be available in later rounds who could develop into top flight Tackles (Beatty, Meredith, Fulton, Vollmer, Murtha). There should be good values in most rounds, which will keep the Steelers from reaching or making an expensive trade to make sure we get "our guy".

With so much quality depth, we're in a great position to stay put, trade up, or trade down, depending on how the board falls. If we get a legit shot at Oher for a 1st and 3rd rounder, it might be worth it. Britton would probably be worth 1.32 if he's there. The early to mid 2nd has some good values at center if we traded down from our 1st or up from our 2nd pick. If we don't like our options in the first two rounds, we could still take two quality linemen in the 3rd. After that, there are some flier and backup types for depth and potential starters down the road.

**BTSC 2009 NFL DRAFT VALUE CHART FOR OL PROSPECTS**
	Mid 1st	Late 1st	Early 2nd	Late 2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th-7th
TACKLES	Michael Oher, Andre Smith	Eben Britton	William Beatty	Jamon Meredith	Gerald Cadogan, Troy Kropog	Xavier Fulton, Sebastian Vollmer	Lydon Murtha, Jason Watkins, Andrew Gardner	Joel Bell, Andrew Hartline
INTERIOR LINEMEN (C/G)	******	******	Alex Mack, Max Unger Eric Wood	******	J. Luigs, A. Levitre A.Caldwell, T. Canfield	Tyronne Green, Augustus Parrish	A.Q. Shipley, T.J. Lang, Cecil Newton	Jon Cooper, Anthony Parker, Edwin Williams
MAN BLOCKING SCHEME ONLY	******	******	******	Duke Robinson, Phil Loadholt, Herman Johnson	Kraig Urbik, Fenuki Tupuo	Jaimie Thomas	Alex Boone, Louis Vasquez	Ramon Foster, Andy Kemp, Ray Feinga

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About Some Of The Prospects: OFFENSIVE TACKLES

Andre Smith (Alabama) - Best looking OT on tape, unwilling to follow the typical path of a top NFL prospect. Could be a huge steal at 1.32, could be a flameout. The talent is there, so I would give him very hard look to see if the attitude is a long term problem, especially considering he was an upstanding teamate/citizen before the bowl season started.

Eben Britton (Arizona) - Smart and well rounded OT prospect. Pro-ready, very good technique, may not have an elite ceiling. If we draft for tape, I could see us picking him at 1.32

William Beatty (UConn) - Has shown top notch athleticism on tape and has a ridiculous vertical for an OL, but his lower body strength is a liability right now and he has less than perfect technique. Had an outstanding senior season. Has a very high ceiling if we dive headlong into the finesse ZBS offense.

Jamon Meredith (S. Carolina) - Elite athlete who appears to be fairly intelligent, but doesn't have great production. Despite his 31 bench reps at the combine, he doesn't play very strong or aggressively. Risky pick, but high upside.

Gerald Cadogan (PSU) - With all the talk about Shipley, we’ve neglected a potentially better pro off I80. Even though he’s not the best fit in the ZBS, Cadogan could be a very good value in the third. He’s well rounded with a solid frame and build, solid athleticism, good intelligence and character, and good technique. He might be an upgrade right away at RT.

Xavier Fulton (Illinois) - Has the tools to be a top flight OT in the NFL, but is still learning the position. Short for LT, but has long arms. I wouldn't mind giving him a look with Faneca's comp pick.

Lydon Murtha (Nebraska) - One more amazing athlete without great tape. He wasn't really on the map for a lot of people before putting together one of the most ridiculous combines I've ever seen for an OT. He literally finished first among OT's in 10, 20, and 40 yard splits, vertical, shuttle, and cone drills. He slacked off in the broad jump, missing first by an inch. I question how much these numbers should raise his stock, but it does show that he's a very good athlete by a number of measures. If the Raiders don't take him earlier, he'd be an interesting option in the 5th or 6th. He also has some injury concerns.

About Some Of The Prospects: INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINEMAN

Alex Mack (Cal) - A lot is written about him elsewhere on this site. Not the ideal ZBS center, but would handle big NT's better than some. Very well rounded game. He's probably the best center of the class, but not by everyone's opinion. Is he worth spending a first on when there are a number of other similarly good centers?

Max Unger (Oregon) - Incredibly intelligent and versatile lineman. He could be a very solid center or guard, and he could fill in decently at tackle if needed. Very tough and competitive.

Eric Wood (Louisville) - Very strong, good athlete, could play guard or center in zone or man blocking scheme. Best workouts of any center, could develop a couple areas more - leverage, lateral movement/pass blocking

Jonathan Luigs (Arkansas) - Luigs has everything you're looking for in a zone blocker - he's very smart and aware, he has good lateral agility, and he's a solid pass protector. However, he has fairly poor lower body strength and could really struggle to handle the big NT's we're going to see every year. Sean Mahan, we have not forgotten you.

Antione Caldwell (Alabama) - Not your ideal ZBS center, but he is well-rounded and can anchor against NT's. He should be ready to step in early. A poor man's Mack.

Tyronne Green (Auburn) - Still learning offense after starting college as a DT, but he's strong and athletic and could ultimately be a solid center or guard. He'll need some time to develop, but could be a good value.

A.Q. Shipley (PSU) - Tough as nails, very determined, but he'll need all the determination he has to make it in the NFL. He's too short and not enough of an athlete (despite a very solid combine) to be a sure-fire prospect at center. Still, you have to like his character, and I'd think he'll at least be a passable backup.

Cecil Newton (Tennessee) - Small school prospect who was dominant against sub-par competition. Very good athlete and pass blocker that projects well as a ZBS center or guard.

Jon Cooper (Oklahoma) - Part of a very productive Oklahoma offense. Very good in pass protection, great athlete, sounds like a perfect fit as an IOL in the ZBS. He needs to get stronger and he did have some strange weight fluctuation that will have to be medically checked out to ensure he's not Kendall Simmons or Sean Mahan.