SB Nation User Blog: BadMaafala

Brian Friday

BadMaafala — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 15:25:03 -0000

After looking like a no-hit (or at least a no-power) SS prospect for a good portion of his career, Brian Friday has been impressive in 114 AB's this year. On one hand, his K% has been steady (17.5 vs 17.7) and his BB% has only improved insignificantly (9.5 vs 8.0). On the other hand, he's doing all that at a higher level, he has hit the same number of HR's in 114 AB at AA as he did in his previous 519 AB in A ball, and his XB% has jumped from 7.7% to 12.3%. His BABIP is currently sitting at .367, which seems high to me, but it's not much higher than his previous career average of .341, and if his power has truly improved it could account for the higher BABIP.

I know he's drawn pretty good reviews with his glove, and his RF/G and Fld% metrics compare favorably to Bixler, so if he's developing some real power, he could suddenly be a pretty good prospect. What does everyone else think? Could he be our starting SS in 2011? Is the power here to stay? Did he juice up over the offseason or just develop power like a lot of 22-23 year olds? Is he just getting lucky? I'm nowhere near as knowledgeable about these things as many around BD, so I'd love some other opinions.

Coonelly Chat

BadMaafala — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 20:44:05 -0000

Coonelly Chat

Coonelly talks about the draft, Sano, money, prospect development, and the importance of having sparkpluginess in his managers. Always nice to hear what actual baseball people have to say, even if they have to be somewhat guarded.

Day 1 Thoughts

BadMaafala — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 05:13:17 -0000

More photos » by Michael Norris - AP

2 months ago: Missouri defensive tackle Evander Hood reacts as he talks on a cellphone with the Pittsburgh Steelers after they selected him 32nd overall in the first round of the NFL Draft during draft watch party at the Ambassador Hotel in Amarillo, Texas, Saturday, April 25, 2009. (AP Photo/The Amarillo Globe News, Michael Norris)

Browse more photos »

The Steelers pulled off a very solid day one. I have been full of Ziggy-love since I started looking into the DL prospects, and we got him while staying put. There's a lot to like about him: he's got good size for a 3-4 DE (it'd be nice to have another inch or two, but he still has long arms), he was productive in college, he stood out among top competition at the Senior Bowl, he had absolutely fantastic tests at the combine (which tells me he has a ton of upside), he could grow into both a good pass rusher and a good run stuffer, and he should be able to drop into coverage on occasion, too. Nothing has stood out more to me, though, than how coachable and how good of a teammate everyone says he is. I think he's an absolutely perfect fit as a Steeler and as a one gap 5 technique 3-4 zone blitz DE. He was a very solid value at one of our biggest needs.

Now onto the trade.

When you say "a 2nd and a 4th for two 3rds", it sounds like a wash, but here's another way of saying it: we traded the 64th and 132nd picks for the 79th and 84th picks. Yet another way: we traded down 15 picks into the third and up 48 picks from the 4th. The infallible "draft value chart", which means a lot more in later rounds than in the first, says we traded 270 + 40 = 310 points for 195 + 170 = 365 points. But it gets better. The best prospect we could have drafted at a position of need at 2.64 was probably Jarron Gilbert (who I know gets some people's hearts pumping around here), but we just got Hood, and it would be a lot nicer to get some OL's and DB's. With William Beatty and Sean Smith going right before our pick, there wasn't a great value there. Jamon Meredith would have been a decent pick, but instead they traded for 2 picks the middle of the 3rd, which also coincides with a very nice value pocket of OL's. Whatever they're looking for, it should be available around those picks. If they want maulers, Robinson and Johnson may be there. If they want tackles, there's Cadogan, Kropog, Tupou, Fulton, and maybe even Meredith. There are two solid centers likely to be there, Luigs and Caldwell, and a handful of other IOL's as well. Not only did they get better picks in the trade, they maneuvered to a position were the best values coincide with their biggest need. We're in a place where we'll probably be able to draft 2 OL's in our next 3 picks without reaching. It's hard to be sure what's going to happen in the next 14 picks, but this could look like a brilliant trade in a few hours.

My only regret for the day is that they gave up the pick they'd probably have to use to draft the other DL I've been pimping, Roy Miller. I'm also not sure who they'd target as a possible DB in the third if they're looking for a Madden Curse contingency plan, although there are probably some decent options.

BMF's Mock Draft

BadMaafala — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:36:19 -0000

I appreciate all of those of y'all who have submitted mocks in the fanposts section. All informative and entertaining as we count the final days down to the draft. For a few select folks who have been posting rigorously here about the draft for multiple years, their final mocks are deserving of a front page gander by all. Let's take a look at what BMF thinks during the final week of educated speculation. - Blitz-

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I never got to finish my draft value charts because of a few changes around here (a new house and some travel for work), but here's my mock draft. I'm shooting for "optimistic, yet plausible", since that's how good drafts usually work - if you're not getting good values at your spot, you're not drafting right. Anyway, tell me what you think.

1. Vontae Davis CB, Illinois - I like Butler the most of all the late first round DB's, but him falling here might be a little too optimistic. Davis has some question marks, but he's a better athlete and has the speed to eventually take Ike Taylor's role. They brought him in instead of Butler, so they must not be too turned off by the attitude questions.

Also, this is a complete hunch, but I have a weird feeling that we could be targeting Evander Hood for a trade-up in the first. He's too much of a perfect fit as a Steelers DE for us NOT to have brought him in for a visit. I doubt it will actually happen, but I will be accepting pats on the back if it does.

Other possibilities: Hood, Butler, Britton, Wood

(Rounds 2-7 after the break)

2. Fili Moala DE/DT, USC - Of all the defensive linemen in the draft, I think Moala has the best chance to end up as a Steeler. Much like Aaron Smith, he's strong and hard working, and he has the athleticism to work his way down the line and make the tackle. We brought him in for a visit, and I could even see us packaging a 5th to make sure we get him in the second. He could step into the rotation right away and solidify the future of the line.

Other possibilities: Meredith, Mickens, Byrd

3. Antione Caldwell C, Alabama - Based on how I see this draft working out, we're most likely to take an OL in the third. Unless we trade our pick or someone falls a lot, there will probably be better values at other positions in the first and second. I really like Caldwell as a potentially dominant force in the middle - NFL Draft Scout likens him to Jeff Hartings for what that's worth. He doesn't fit in great with the zone blocking system, but neither do any of our current OL's or most of the prospects we brought in. I have no idea if they're going to keep using the "zone blocking with man blockers" system they have in place or if they'll finally admit we're only ever going to be a running team, but they sure haven't hinted that they're looking at pass blockers.

Other possibilities: Cadogan, Kropog, Levitre

4. Roy Miller DT, Texas - Despite playing for Texas, having good production and game tape, and putting up outstanding workout numbers, Roy Miller has been largely under the radar. I've seen projections with him in the 6th or 7th, but he won't actually last that long. He might even be worth a 3rd rounder. Maybe he needs to gain some excess weight and take plays off to get noticed. Anyway, he's a legitimate NT candidate with good upper and lower body strength, a squatty Hamptonesque frame that can anchor against the double team, and good initial quickness to win the leverage battle. If the draft played out as I'm suggesting, I'd be the most excited about this pick.

5a. Andrew Gardner OT, Georgia Tech - At some point, we need to draft an OT, so here we go. Gardner is a pretty good athlete who plays hard. I'm not sure he's enough of an athlete to be a long term solution at LT, but he could be decent on the right or as a backup. We could go with Lydon Myrtha, who is a great athlete with a long history of minor injuries, but I think we play it safer and get Gardner here.

5b. Mike Wallace WR, Mississippi - Now that Nate Washington has developed to the point where he could actually start somewhere, it's time to draft another unfinished track star who can frustrate us for a few years and leave once he gets good. This pick might be one of my more optimistic, and I wouldn't be shocked if he was selected in the 4th - even by us. He has those workout numbers that drive GM's bananas.

6. Dan Gronkowski TE, Maryland - Gronkowski is a good blocker and the Steelers could use a good blocking TE if they're going to keep running out of 2 TE sets. He also has decent athleticism and hands, so he could make us forget about the Matt Spaeth experiment if we drafted him. He reminds me a bit of Jerame Tuman.

7a. Zach Potter DE, Nebraska - He may not make it to our 7th rounders, but if he did, he'd finish the transformation of our DL. He looks like a Keisel-type who could really make his mark as a backup and special teamer. Hopefully he could help rid us of guys like Paxson and Roye.

7b. Andrew Hartline OT, Central Michigan - Hartline is a pretty good athlete who needs some work. He could hang onto the practice squad or even the inactive roster for a year while he gets bigger and hopefully contribute his sophmore season. We could use some more upside on our OL.

BTSC 2009 Steelers Draft Analysis: The Offensive Line

BadMaafala — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 21:27:55 -0000

Previous posts by Bad Maafala:

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Introduction: Improving The Offensive Line in 2009

As I said in my intro post, I don't think we should stick with our newly instated Zone Blocking Scheme for the running game (from now on referred to as ZBS, per steelguy99). However, if the Steelers have any plans to change it, they're keeping them top secret, so I'm doing this chart with ZBS type linemen in mind.

In the ZBS, a premium is put on pass blocking, athleticism, lateral agility, and intelligence. Elite strength isn't quite as important, neither is pulling ability. However, considering that we're going to face NT's like Rogers, Ngata, Williams, and Wilfork on a regular basis, we're going to want to consider a Center's ability to handle those guys in both the running game and pass protection. Lower body strength is key, as is playing with proper leverage and firing off the ball quickly. At Tackle, it'd be nice to get a top tier athlete who could make us more comfortable when speed rushers come after Ben's blind side.

The 2009 OL Class & BTSC Value Chart

Last year, the quality of the OL class got talked about a lot, but this year has more top tier talent and better depth. While there is possibly a void at the Guard position, I can't remember a year that there were so many strong, intelligent, athletic, and versatile Centers (see commentary below). At Tackle, there are 2 guys who are going in the top-5, a good group of well-developed, pro-ready types available after them (Britton, Tupou, Kropog, Cadogan), and an impressive set of elite athletes who should be available in later rounds who could develop into top flight Tackles (Beatty, Meredith, Fulton, Vollmer, Murtha). There should be good values in most rounds, which will keep the Steelers from reaching or making an expensive trade to make sure we get "our guy".

With so much quality depth, we're in a great position to stay put, trade up, or trade down, depending on how the board falls. If we get a legit shot at Oher for a 1st and 3rd rounder, it might be worth it. Britton would probably be worth 1.32 if he's there. The early to mid 2nd has some good values at center if we traded down from our 1st or up from our 2nd pick. If we don't like our options in the first two rounds, we could still take two quality linemen in the 3rd. After that, there are some flier and backup types for depth and potential starters down the road.

**BTSC 2009 NFL DRAFT VALUE CHART FOR OL PROSPECTS**
	Mid 1st	Late 1st	Early 2nd	Late 2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th-7th
TACKLES	Michael Oher, Andre Smith	Eben Britton	William Beatty	Jamon Meredith	Gerald Cadogan, Troy Kropog	Xavier Fulton, Sebastian Vollmer	Lydon Murtha, Jason Watkins, Andrew Gardner	Joel Bell, Andrew Hartline
INTERIOR LINEMEN (C/G)	******	******	Alex Mack, Max Unger Eric Wood	******	J. Luigs, A. Levitre A.Caldwell, T. Canfield	Tyronne Green, Augustus Parrish	A.Q. Shipley, T.J. Lang, Cecil Newton	Jon Cooper, Anthony Parker, Edwin Williams
MAN BLOCKING SCHEME ONLY	******	******	******	Duke Robinson, Phil Loadholt, Herman Johnson	Kraig Urbik, Fenuki Tupuo	Jaimie Thomas	Alex Boone, Louis Vasquez	Ramon Foster, Andy Kemp, Ray Feinga

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About Some Of The Prospects: OFFENSIVE TACKLES

Andre Smith (Alabama) - Best looking OT on tape, unwilling to follow the typical path of a top NFL prospect. Could be a huge steal at 1.32, could be a flameout. The talent is there, so I would give him very hard look to see if the attitude is a long term problem, especially considering he was an upstanding teamate/citizen before the bowl season started.

Eben Britton (Arizona) - Smart and well rounded OT prospect. Pro-ready, very good technique, may not have an elite ceiling. If we draft for tape, I could see us picking him at 1.32

William Beatty (UConn) - Has shown top notch athleticism on tape and has a ridiculous vertical for an OL, but his lower body strength is a liability right now and he has less than perfect technique. Had an outstanding senior season. Has a very high ceiling if we dive headlong into the finesse ZBS offense.

Jamon Meredith (S. Carolina) - Elite athlete who appears to be fairly intelligent, but doesn't have great production. Despite his 31 bench reps at the combine, he doesn't play very strong or aggressively. Risky pick, but high upside.

Gerald Cadogan (PSU) - With all the talk about Shipley, we’ve neglected a potentially better pro off I80. Even though he’s not the best fit in the ZBS, Cadogan could be a very good value in the third. He’s well rounded with a solid frame and build, solid athleticism, good intelligence and character, and good technique. He might be an upgrade right away at RT.

Xavier Fulton (Illinois) - Has the tools to be a top flight OT in the NFL, but is still learning the position. Short for LT, but has long arms. I wouldn't mind giving him a look with Faneca's comp pick.

Lydon Murtha (Nebraska) - One more amazing athlete without great tape. He wasn't really on the map for a lot of people before putting together one of the most ridiculous combines I've ever seen for an OT. He literally finished first among OT's in 10, 20, and 40 yard splits, vertical, shuttle, and cone drills. He slacked off in the broad jump, missing first by an inch. I question how much these numbers should raise his stock, but it does show that he's a very good athlete by a number of measures. If the Raiders don't take him earlier, he'd be an interesting option in the 5th or 6th. He also has some injury concerns.

About Some Of The Prospects: INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINEMAN

Alex Mack (Cal) - A lot is written about him elsewhere on this site. Not the ideal ZBS center, but would handle big NT's better than some. Very well rounded game. He's probably the best center of the class, but not by everyone's opinion. Is he worth spending a first on when there are a number of other similarly good centers?

Max Unger (Oregon) - Incredibly intelligent and versatile lineman. He could be a very solid center or guard, and he could fill in decently at tackle if needed. Very tough and competitive.

Eric Wood (Louisville) - Very strong, good athlete, could play guard or center in zone or man blocking scheme. Best workouts of any center, could develop a couple areas more - leverage, lateral movement/pass blocking

Jonathan Luigs (Arkansas) - Luigs has everything you're looking for in a zone blocker - he's very smart and aware, he has good lateral agility, and he's a solid pass protector. However, he has fairly poor lower body strength and could really struggle to handle the big NT's we're going to see every year. Sean Mahan, we have not forgotten you.

Antione Caldwell (Alabama) - Not your ideal ZBS center, but he is well-rounded and can anchor against NT's. He should be ready to step in early. A poor man's Mack.

Tyronne Green (Auburn) - Still learning offense after starting college as a DT, but he's strong and athletic and could ultimately be a solid center or guard. He'll need some time to develop, but could be a good value.

A.Q. Shipley (PSU) - Tough as nails, very determined, but he'll need all the determination he has to make it in the NFL. He's too short and not enough of an athlete (despite a very solid combine) to be a sure-fire prospect at center. Still, you have to like his character, and I'd think he'll at least be a passable backup.

Cecil Newton (Tennessee) - Small school prospect who was dominant against sub-par competition. Very good athlete and pass blocker that projects well as a ZBS center or guard.

Jon Cooper (Oklahoma) - Part of a very productive Oklahoma offense. Very good in pass protection, great athlete, sounds like a perfect fit as an IOL in the ZBS. He needs to get stronger and he did have some strange weight fluctuation that will have to be medically checked out to ensure he's not Kendall Simmons or Sean Mahan.

BMF's Draft Analysis: The DL

BadMaafala — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 16:25:28 -0000

Previous posts:

Intro/Draft Needs.

Defensive Line: What We're Looking For

It can be hard to differentiate guys that fit our 3-4 scheme from guys that don't. The best way to find the types of guys we're looking for is to look at our current line. At nose tackle, we're looking for a guy who is a threat to blow up any running play if he's single blocked and who can hold his ground when he's double teamed. Being short can be an asset here, as Hampton uses his height to gain a leverage advantage. It's also good if we have at least one DE (like Smith) who is a force in the running game and can hold his own against the double team as well. Keisel is a very different player, not great in the running game, but is an asset against the pass - both rushing the passer and using his height to bat down balls. Usually we're looking for college DT's who are fairly tall (6-3 to 6-6) and weighing in around 300 lbs.

My Value Chart

	Mid 1st	Late 1st	Early 2nd	Late 2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	Priority FA
NT				Brace	Scott		Walker, R. Miller
3-4 DE		Hood, Jackson		Moala, Gilbert		Jean-Francois, Magee		Abdallah, Irvin, Hill	Pedescleaux, Potter, Davis, Mitchell	Richard, Bolden

About Some of the Prospects

Evander Hood - I would totally take this guy in the first round. He has very solid production, meaning he's not a project. His combine numbers are outstanding, meaning he still has upside. He can both stand up at the point of attack against the run and get after the passer. He is a physical presence and has almost no injury history. Some notes from NFL Draft Countdown: He's "extremely coachable", a "hard worker" and "team leader". The negative: "Jack of all trades but master of none". Sounds like a 3-4 DE to me. More specifically, sounds like Aaron Smith to me. If we were talking about pick 15, I might be hesitant to take a player who didn't blow me away. However, at the end of the first I'm content with a well rounded guy who could anchor our DL for a long time and who almost has no downside.

Tyson Jackson - I've seen mock drafts linking us to Jackson for several years now, but I am uneasy about us drafting him in the first. I'm worried that playing for LSU and lining up next to Glenn Dorsey has inflated his draft stock. I really would have liked to see him do the BP at the combine. The bench press doesn't completely translate to functional strength (see Gholston, Vernon), but it's a good indicator. Still, he's a consensus first round pick, so I feel obligated to include him as a first round option for us. I'm still pretty sure he could hold up and solidify the future of our DL.

Jarron Gilbert - Gilbert is an outstanding athlete who could grow into a pass rush threat while holding his own against the run. He's not quite a finished product, though: he played against inferior competition and had good, but not outstanding production. He dominated better competition at the East-West Shrine game, though, which is a very positive sign. His upside looks like a much better version of Brett Keisel.

Fili Moala - Moala is the complete opposite end of the 3-4 DE spectrum from Gilbert. He's not much of a pass rusher, but he has good technique, plays the run well, and has faced top competition on a regular basis. He doesn't strike me as a guy with a lot of upside, but he's a sure bet to contribute. He does have an arrest, basically for getting in the way of cops at a bar fight, but no charges were filed.

Ron Brace - Brace is a traditional run stuffing NT who makes his teammates (i.e. Raji) look better. Unlike a lot of NT's, he carries his weight well and he's not a fatty. Like Hampton, his lower body strength is his most impressive feature. That said I'm not sure he's worth our first pick, and I don't think he'll last until our second. My biggest reservation with him is a back injury that came and went throughout the season; there doesn't seem to be a significant long term problem there, but for 325 pound men, your back is last place you want issues. If he happened to fall to the end of the second round, he'd be a very good value.

Dorell Scott - He's probably more of a 4-3 NT, but he could play either NT or DE for us. At DE, he'd be an asset in the running game, where he has the natural lower body strength to hold up to double teams. At NT, he'd provide us with a better pass rush than Hampton without being a liability against the run. Still, he has some technique work to do before he's a finished product.

Ricky Jean-Francois - He's a solid run stuffer who is also a pretty good athlete. He's good at play recognition and finding the ball, but he has been inconsistent throughout his colligate career.

Alex Magee - Magee has a good skill set for a 3-4 end - he's solid against the run and can push the pocket in the passing game. He also looked good rushing the passer at the Senior Bowl. He will need some time to refine his technique in the running game against NFL competition, though.

Roy Miller - Miller may actually be one of the best NT candidates in the draft. He has good initial quickness to gain an advantage on the OL, and tremendous upper and lower body strength. He's big and short, but carries his weight very well, and also displays good hustle. He was productive for Texas and did very well at the combine. Most draft rankings have him in the 5-7 range, but I'd be okay drafting him earlier.

Vance Walker - He may need to bulk a little more, but he has the natural upper and lower body strength you're looking for in a NT. He doesn't always show the quickest burst off the ball - which means he may not draw double teams - but he's not going to move easily against the run.

Later Rounds - A lot of these guys (Zach Potter, in particular) remind of Keisel-types, and I'd be okay going after some depth, special teamers, and upside guys at DE with our three 6-7 round picks.

Note about Terrance Taylor and others - There's always a DT who kills the bench press and looks like he could be a great NT if he just got in better shape. However, there's a reason those guys always go late in the draft - if they're not in shape now, they never will be. Just about all the guys in my chart are in good shape, which bodes well for their work ethic and longevity. If your wondering why I excluded a specific DT, there's a good chance they're fat.

Next: BMF takes a break before diving into the OL next week.

BMF's Draft Analysis: Intro

BadMaafala — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 18:36:51 -0000

I was toying around with the idea of doing a mock draft, but despite the fact that mock drafts are incredibly useful and relevant, I've decided to do a draft value chart instead. The actual draft is very unpredictable, so it's good not to get locked in on one player or position. Drafting the "best player available" is a phrase you hear thrown around a lot as the best way to accumulate talent. While I generally agree with the BPA approach, we have no need for a QB, so we're not drafting one regardless of who is available. Taking it one step further, we also have to consider the value a player would add to our team in making the decision. If an OT is 33rd on the board, and a RB is 31st, we should take the OT to make a dramatic improvement to the team instead of just a small one. We should probably avoid taking the 45th best player at #32 just to fill a need, though.

I'll try to go through all the positions before the draft gets here, talking about potential picks we could make in each round. I will tend to exclude players that don't really fit our scheme or ones that have some bad flags like arrests, weight problems, and lack of desire. Before we get to that, though, here's a look at our needs at different positions.

OL needs: Top end talent and depth

Could use: Anyone with a heartbeat

Obviously, the OL is a mess. Max Starks, who couldn't win a starting position at the beginning of the season, now seems to be our best lineman. We are in desperate need of an impact player at any position along the line. Also, after having relatively good depth there for the past few years, we are now very thin. We are returning the 5 starters from the majority of last year, but we essentially have replacement level players (i.e. guys off the street) behind them.

Adding to the mess is the uncertain scheme and direction of the offense. The hat-on-hat, Faneca-style running game was a staple under Bill Cowher, but with very little fanfare (or success) we saw Tomlin, Arians, and Zierlein switch to a predominantly one-cut, zone blocking running game this past year. I could write 10 pages on how terribly this scheme fits every last one of our OL's and our starting RB, but to summarize: the advantage of the scheme is that you can fill your OL with smart, athletic pass blockers and still have an effective running game. Unfortunely, we don't have smart, athletic pass blockers, so we don't have good zone run blockers either.

Honestly, I have no idea if we are going to keep this scheme or go back to the man-blocking scheme which fits our current personnel a lot better. I would scrap it, especially considering we just signed Kemo for 5 years, but then again, I would also fire Arians and Zierlein, see if Colon can play guard, and sign Jason Brown to a long term deal instead of Kemo. Tomlin and Arians both seem slow to make dramatic changes, so my best guess is we'll see more of it this year and hopefully draft some smart, athletic pass blockers who actually fit this scheme.

The (somewhat) good news? Youth. Our players may not very good, but at least we know their play won't drop off, right? In all seriousness, though, 4 of our 5 starters are under 30, and two - Stapleton and Kemo - just got their first significant playing time this year. While we shouldn't assume all these players are going to significantly improve, it's reasonable to think that one or two will. Additionally, Tony Hills is an unknown some have put their hopes in. I'm not a believer, but it's possible. It's very likely that he either establishes himself as a good backup and potential starter this preseason, or gets cut.

So what will the Steelers do to fix the OL in the draft? Up to this point in his tenure, Tomlin has largely ignored both lines. In 2006, we passed on potential OL's for a 3rd TE. Last year when everyone said we would go OL or DL, he waited until the 4th round to draft either, citing that good skill players make the line look better (if they play, that is). This year, we need top end talent and depth on the OL, but I'm hearing the Steelers talk about WR's and RB's. We couldn't skip out on the OL again, could we? No, but with very good depth in OL prospects this year and Tomlin and Colbert's lack of priority with the OL in recent years, I wouldn't be surprised to see them wait until the second round or later to take an OL if they don't like the board in the first. We desperately need depth, though, so I would think there's no way we're going to leave the draft with fewer than 2 new OL's.

DL needs: Long term starters, depth

Could use: Youth at any position

This was a hot topic last off-season after watching the defense fall apart without Aaron Smith in the lineup. To everyone's surprise, we ignored this need and made out just fine, rotating the starters a little more, dealing well with 2 significant injuries, and getting good production out of our backups. Still, without some young talent, the line remains in a precarious situation. Hampton has been more and more inconsistent over the past 2 years, and Keisel is hardly dominant - especially against the run. If we lose Smith to injury or if (unthinkably) his play starts to drop off as he ages, we could watch our defense drop from historically good to just good. Unless our offense picks up the pace, that's a big problem.

Like the offensive line, Tomlin and Colbert haven't made DL a big priority, so it's hard to say whether they will go "find their guy" in the draft, or only take a lineman if he's best player available. Considering the situation seems less dire than it did last year, I doubt we'll see a big reach or trade for a DL, but I don't see us saying no if we get a fair value on a good DL.

DB needs: Quality Depth

Could use: Upper tier FS

Bmac signed for less than I thought he would, but he's still not worth to us what he's worth to someone without 2+ other good options at CB. Much like Harvey Milk, I am a big believer in Gay's rights and abilities to grab balls, and I think he'll be a solid member of the defense this year, with Deshea right behind him. We could use a little more depth at CB, though.

Ryan Clark is a steady veteran, and his value was pretty obvious when he was injured, but we shouldn't trick ourselves into thinking he's a Pro Bowler. Troy might be the best safety in the league, but a bi-product of his versatility is that we often see a third safety, usually the overmatched Tyrone Carter, on the field. While we're not in any sort of dire need, we could use more able bodies either at CB or S, and it's likely that we will sign or draft two or more extra DB's before it's all said and done.

WR needs: Stability

Could use: Upper tier or high upside WR

Our WR's are in a period of uncertainty right now. They struggled to get open at times in 2008, and all have some questions. How is Hines going to age? Will Santonio become a #1? Will we sign him after his rookie contract? Who will take Washington's place? Will Sweed step up?

We will probably sign a WR, perhaps Galloway, to give us a little more flexibilty here. If we do that, we are free to look at some options at WR, but we don't need to pick one. Like most, I'm not ready to dismiss Sweed, and if we have a decent option to compete with him for the #3, with a few UDFA's filling out the ranks I'm pretty content.

LB needs: ??

Could use: Top end OLB or ILB, ILB depth

The need at OLB depends almost completely on how the Deebo situation unfolds. If there's no development in talks before the draft, it would be hard to turn down a quality value at OLB as insurance. If we no one falls into our lap, I'd expect the talks to heat up some. Also, at some point we need to think about a long term replacement for Farrior. The good news it that we have a ton of ILB/OLB prospects on the team already in Woods, Bailey, and Davis. There's a good chance that one of those guys will turn into a starter in the mold of Foote or Haggans, which lessens the need here in my book.

TE needs: Blocking TE

Could use: Miller's replacement

For some reason I think it's unlikely that Miller stays here after next year. I think he could be one of the more productive TE's in the league, similar to Owen Daniels, but he's never been given an exceptionally large role in our offense other than blocking, which he's terrible at. If he left, Spaeth could fill in decently with his pass catching skills and poor run blocking. In any case, if we're going to run out of 2 TE sets, we need 2 TE's who can run block. Right now, we have about a half of one.

(edit) As steelguy99 points out, unless something drastic and sudden happens with the CBA, Miller will be a RFA after next year, and thus easy to control. Considering we don't use Miller enough as it is and have him for 2 more years, I really can't see us drafting a top pass-catching TE. Of course, Bruce Arians is a "three-tight end guy" so who knows. (end edit)

RB/FB - Could use: actual FB, The Bus 2

We are pretty far from secure at RB, with Mendy unproven and Parker probably in the latter stages of his career. However, Davis and Russell are the only ones I could see us parting with, which leaves us potentially looking for a FB or a goalline plunger.

Coming up Next: Actual draft information!

I'll look at the DL prospects next and give my DL value chart.

Jason Brown signs with Rams

BadMaafala — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 15:31:35 -0000

Jason Brown, a young, pro bowl caliber lineman who has been starting for 2-3 years, signed a 5 year deal for $37.5M, with $20M guaranteed. Meanwhile, we just paid more than half that much for someone the same age who didn't appear to be a starting caliber lineman in his one year as a starter.

Not that it's a big surprise that we didn't go after a huge free agent like Brown, but I don't like the way our offense has been handled so far this off-season. Despite the SB run against 3 wildcard teams, our offense struggled immensely for long stretches last year. While they played well in the SB, they had a chance to put the game away with a few first downs and couldn't do it against a lousy defense.

Through endless discussions on this board, three problems have consistently come up: Ben holding onto the ball too long, the offensive line being terrible, and the offensive playcalling, identity, and scheme. Some people say the line sucks because Ben holds onto the ball, some say Ben holds onto the ball too long because the playcalling sucks, some say Arians can't get the offense to go because the line sucks. The point is that the offense sucks and one or three of these things is the problem. If we're looking to improve the offense, it's obvious that Ben has tremendous upside to go with his more annoying traits, while Arians and the OL haven't demonstrated clear strengths that offset their faults. The OL sucks at pass blocking and run blocking, and they frequently have mental mistakes and penalties. Even when Arians puts together a decent game plan, by the third quarter it usually fizzles out into dull and ineffective plodding, allowing the other team to make it interesting.

So why not try something radical this offseason? How about some fresh offensive thinking - fire the crappy OC, even if we did win the SB? How about a new OL coach? How about cutting ties with with the deadweight on our OL? What's the risk - is a second or third round guard starting on day one going to play worse than Kemo did? How about a rookie RT? Why couldn't we have done something like this to fix the OL: Franchise our best lineman, Starks, and try to sign him long term. Let Kemo walk and try to sign an upper tier FA like Brown - he would be a HUGE upgrade, and he's so young that he's a better investment long term than Faneca or Kemo, who may never be an average starter. Draft an OL early, and sign or draft several other guys for depth (Essex, for example). We could be looking at a line like this: Starks (good), Brown (very good), Hartwig (decent), Stape/Colon (okay to decent), and a first round RT (good). Give that line a year to gel, and our OL will be a strength instead of a liability.

Instead, we're just treading water, and we're only saving $3.5M a year. Arians is still Arians. Kemo had 3 years to overtake Simmons and couldn't do it, so now we're going to hand him a lot of money and hope he suddenly starts to improve? Look how Darnell Dockett and Jason Jones abused him late in the season. At this rate, should we have any doubt that Colon will be our starting RT in 2009? I say no.

Yeah, our offense was good enough to win the Super Bowl, but it was a below average offense by almost any metric. Our defense is great, but it's not going to be this good every year. Also, the major contenders aren't going to fold every year. Our road to the SB would have been a lot harder if we played the Titans, Colts, Patriots (w/ Brady), and Giants. We're building a team made to lose the AFCCG instead of establishing itself as the team to beat every year. I guess it could be worse, but this doesn't seem to be more than an extension of Cowher's time here.

Jason Brown

BadMaafala — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 20:52:04 -0000

Steelers fan here. Where do you guys see Jason Brown on your list of FA priorities, with Suggs, Scott, and Lewis needing new deals? I haven't heard much of any talk about him, although that could be because he's not as widely known as your LB's. Any thoughts on how much you guys would pay for him or what the chances are he'll still be in Baltimore next year? What could you guys see him commanding on the open market? We'd love to get our hands on some OL.

Steelers Offense vs Cards Defense

BadMaafala — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 19:17:43 -0000

In some ways, this game reminds me of the San Diego game. The best defense going up against one of the top offenses. Our offense vs. a middle of the pack defense that has played well over the past few games. Personally, I'd be surprised if we completely shut down the Cards offense. I'd be even more surprised if they passed up and down the field on us like they did for a half against Philly. There's a good chance they'll stalemate at about 14-24 points and the game will largely be decided by the other matchup: our offense against their defense.

I did a little research on how our offense performed against different opponents before the SD game, and here's what I wrote:

I looked at our opponents’ yards and points against and compared them to the yards and points we scored over the course of the regular season. Here’s what I found:

Opposing teams averaged 20.0 points and 310 yards (division weighted x2) against them. If anyone cares, that’d be the 11th yardage and 10th scoring defense.

We averaged 21.7 points and 312 yards, giving us on average +1.7 (7.9 percent) points and +1.5 (0.5 percent) yards versus the other teams they played. This suggests that our offense is almost exactly average at moving the ball, and I’ll hypothesize that our defense accounts for a lot of the point value over average. I find it odd that our FO offensive DVOA is an identical number (1.7) I hope that’s not their “proprietary formula”.

Now let’s split how we performed against top 10 defenses and everyone else. We played 7 games against top 10 defenses, averaging 16.1 points and 259 yards. The top 10 defenses averaged 17.6 points and 281 for the year. So on average, we were -1.4 (-8.8 percent) points and -21.7 yards (-8.4 percent) from our opponents’ opponents’ offenses. We were above average in 2 of 7 games in both points and yards.

On the flip side, we were +4.2 (16 percent) points and +19.6 (5.6 percent) yards against non-top 10 defenses. We were above average in 7 of 9 games in both points and yards.

This suggests the following:
1) On average, our offense is almost exactly average.
2) Our offense performs worse than most teams would when faced with a good defense and better than most teams would when faced with a bad defense. All teams production should fall off against good defenses, but ours declines more rapidly than usual as opposing defenses get better.

We can analyze the reasons for this, but it looks like a pretty consistent trend. This is, of course, the worst kind of playoff offense around since you want them to step up to the challenge, instead of backing down. If we want to win the SB, we may have to beat the Ravens, Titans, Giants, or Eagles. The good news is we play the Chargers this week.

Against the Chargers, we continued that trend of shredding bad defenses, blowing away their usual scoring defense, although we underperformed their average yardage by 7 yards. We then beat the Ravens season averages by a point and a handful of yards, but only after Carey Davis and Limas Sweed took finished off the last of their healthy CB's. We certainly didn't do that running the ball. We are fortunate that that was the only "top" defense standing between us and the SB trophy.

On the other side, during the regular season, the Cardinals defense was 19th in yardage, 28th in scoring, 30th in passer rating, and 11th in rushing YPC. If you're a FO believer, they were 21st in DVOA, 23rd against the pass, and 15th against the run.

They've played better in the playoffs, but not exceptionally so. They've averaged 324 yards (would have been 12th in the regular season) and 21 points (14th, reg. season) in games against a rookie QB and huge QB meltdown (not that they don't get any credit for that). They've gotten a ton of turnovers, but especially the Panthers game had "outlier" written all over it. They did actually get one more turnover than we did in the regular season, but ended +0 in overall ratio, whereas we were +4.

So looking at the stats, they look like a poor defense that has stepped it up to average in the playoffs, which still bodes well for our offense. Looking away from the numbers for a moment, I've been harping on this a lot, but the Steelers offense struggles against 2 things: man press coverage on the WR's, and athletic, penetrating defenders. The Cardinals have no shortage of penetrating defenders: Dockett, Berry, Dansby and Wilson are all good pass rushers would could also disrupt our POS zone running game. However, they don't have a CB like Sheldon Brown or Carlos Rogers who can disrupt quick timing routes with successful jams. I have no doubt that DRC will do a good job on Holmes, but he's a lanky speed guy, and I question how well he'll do in this area. If Holmes beat the jam and beats him to the inside on a blitz, he could be running for a long time. On the other side, Hood is bigger, but he's also easier to run away from. If the Cards want to consistently blitz Wilson and/or Dansby, they are going to risk some big RAC plays on quick slants and drags. So basically, I don't think they can do what the Eagles did to us.

The Cardinals defense matches up with us a little better than the Chargers defense did - especially in the running game - so I don't think this is going to be a cake walk. However, there's isn't much reason to think they'll be able to get our offense into self-destruct mode, and I think Ben will have some success against their secondary. I still say if we can run the ball, it's over.