Wilmer Flores (2-5) - After enduring two seasons of downright embarrassing baseball from the 2007-2008 Savannah Sand Gnats, the day had finally arrived. Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte, two of the top six prospects in the organization manning the left side of the infield for a ball club with a chance to actually win a game or two. No more Josh Thole and 0 home runs from the cleanup spot or 24-year old organizational players. Two of the most exciting prospects in baseball were here, and this was my first chance to watch them live.

Flores, one of the crown jewels of the Mets system and near consensus number two prospect within the organization, exploded onto the scene in 2008 with a .307/.347/.468 line as a 16-year old during his first taste of baseball in the lower forty-eight after signing for a high six figure bonus as an international free agent. He enters 2009 as a top fifty overall prospect and one of the more discussed prospects in baseball due to the perfect storm of his being a Met, Dominican, and very young.

Before I work too far into this report, keep in mind Flores is a mere seventeen years of age and what he is now is maybe 1% of what he should be by the time he hits New York. Between glimpses of his immense talent was a player whose baseball maturity was that of the junior in high school he would be were he born in Florida and not the Dominican Republic. With that said, the following is my initial game report on Wilmer Flores.

• Tall and lean; Looked every bit of his 6'3" listed height
• Swam in his uniform; Plenty of room to fill out; Especially through the shoulders
• Should grow out of the shortstop position; Footwork was a little awkward and slow
• Average athlete at this point; Should lose a step or two as he continues to grow; Still growing into his body
  
• Upright stance; Tendency to pull off outside pitches and breaking balls
• Guess hitter at this point; Did not seem to understand how to work a count; Weak fly ball on first pitch fastball with the winning run on 2nd base
  
• Jammed badly first at bat; Fisted bloop single to right field
• Didn't really have a chance to show arm strength; Throws between innings looked like he was throwing the shot put
  
• Flores made all the plays, but it was not pretty; <!-- @page { margin: 0.79in } P { margin-bottom: 0.08in } --> Needs to get in better defensive position both pre-pitch and when the ball is in play
• Swing can be a little long and inconsistent; Exploded through the strike zone at times; Kept hands inside the ball well on an inside fastball

Overall, the performance itself was mixed, but to be seventeen and holding his own against a team full of 21-23 year old players was quite impressive. I have no doubts the power is real and Flores will be a VERY dangerous hitter as soon as he learns to work a count. He's still much a work in progress, but I can definitely see where the Miguel Cabrera comparisons are coming from. In watching "Miggy" during his rookie season, I remember thinking he would be downright scary once he fills out. Flores could be the same kind of scary.

In order for this to happen though, Flores is going to have to develop a more professional approach. Showing a minus arm from the shortstop position the entire game and lazily setting up in his defensive stance between pitches looked really bad and I can see a scenario where he is labeled a bit of a primadonna by the New York media. Maybe this point is moot since he will likely wind up at a corner (infield or outfield), but Jefry Marte made a better first impression in person due to his simply looking the part of a professional. Flores should take note.

Flores and Marte combine to form one of the most exciting tandems in minor league baseball this season and will hopefully put butts in Grayson Stadium seats. After two years of terrible baseball, Savannah fans deserve to see what hopes to be the future of the Mets franchise.

Jeurys Familia (4 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 3 K) -Quickly becoming a serious sleeper in the Mets organization, Jeurys Familia is off to a great start posting a 2-0 Record with a 0.63 ERA and .128 BAA in his first three 2009 starts. Hailing from the Dominican Republic, the 19-year old righty was impressive in his four innings of work throwing an 88-92  MPH fastball and rudimentary breaking pitch; Typical of young Dominican hurlers.

• Looked his listed height of 6'3"; Legs looked well developed; Upper body has some room for growth
• Throws across his body; May gain velocity if he learns how to incorporate his lower half more
  
• Fastball sat at 88-92 throughout the first and second innings
• Weak lineup made solid contact during innings 1-2
  
• Jumped to a consistent 90-92 MPH in the 3rd inning
• Fastball dropped to 88-90 MPH in the 4th
• Tired in the 5th; Fastball dropped to 86-88 MPH
  
• Free and easy arm action at 89 MPH; Took some effort to get into the 90+ MPH range
• Threw first breaking pitch in the 4th inning
• Curveballs thrown were in the 76-78 MPH range
• Curveballs became sharper as Familia tired; Seemed to be overthrowing them at first
• Baseball IQ? Did not know fielding responsibility in sac bunt situation

If Familia continues his hot start, he won't be an unknown for long. For now however, temper your enthusiasm for his hot start as his lack of a breaking pitch could hinder his progression as he moves up through the system. Fortunately for Familia, he has time on his side as I would expect him to spend the entire 2009 season in Savannah before moving up a level in 2010.

Maikel Cleto would have ranked 8th on Mets top 10 lists this past year and Familia is similar in many respects. Cleto, however, was pumping 97 MPH on the gun with Familia falling 5 MPH short of that. With that said, Familia could break the Mets top 20 with an outside shot at the top 15.

Charlie Culberson (2-5) - A former supplemental first round draft pick, Charlie Culberson began 2008 in Augusta with high hopes. After a .234/.290/.319 season which left many wondering what the Giants saw in Culberson to begin with, he enters the 2009 season repeating the Sally League in what the Giants hope will be his coming out party. After watching him play, I'm not sure a breakout is coming anytime soon.

• Solid, compact build; Looked shorter than 6'1"; May have been due to solid build; Not much room for additional growth
• Thick through the lower half; Quickness to play shortstop in doubt
• Listed as SS; Played 3B in this game which is surprising considering his lack of power
• Misplayed slow ground ball at third
• Short, level swing; Average bat speed; Will struggle to generate power
  
• Grounded out weakly to 3rd base his first at bat
• Gap to gap hitter; A couple of hard hit balls to left center field
• Solid approach; Could tell he was trying to work counts after his first at bat

Overall, Culberson was a little better than I thought he would be. Reports I had read previously were in the bad to worse range, so I honestly was not expecting much. While he will likely never be an everyday big leaguer, I can see him filling a utility role on a major league club. However, his playing third base was concerning because he just doesn't have the bat for a corner. If he's already been labeled a tweener at twenty, he's going to have a very tough time salvaging whatever prospect status he has left. Especially if he loses another step has he progresses and can no longer play shortstop in a pinch.

I wonder what the Giants were thinking when they drafted Culberson so high. I understand hindsight is 20/20, but drafted shortly after Culberson were Kyle Lotzkar, Nick Hagadone, and Jordan Zimmermann. With pitching being the Giants bread and butter, passing on a number of high upside talents to draft a seemingly limited Culberson just doesn't make much sense.

Don't Believe the Hype - Tyler Flowers, C, CHW

A good friend of mine who owns Tyler Flowers in a fantasy baseball league I participate in believes Flowers' breakout AFL campaign is the beginning of HUGE things to come. My advice to him was to keep his expectations for Flowers at pre-AFL levels since winter ball standouts don't always turn out to be as good as the numbers indicate.

Yes, a .387/.460/.973 is insane for little league, let alone the AFL, but is a twenty game sample ever enough to truly determine Flowers' worth going forward? My answer is no!

Instead of focusing solely on twelve home runs in twenty games, I prefer to use it as a piece of a much bigger prospect puzzle. Does a 6'4" catcher who shows a stretch of monumental power deserve a bump in prospect status? Yes, but not nearly as much as some are making it out to be.

To truly assess Flowers' prospect value, one simply can't ignore the following information:

1. Shortly after the calendar turns to 2009, Flowers will be 23 and will not have an at bat above A+ ball. In comparison, Delmon Young is four months older than Flowers and has logged well over 1300 big league at bats.
   
2. While Flowers currently plays catcher, from everything I've read, I would put the odds of him remaining behind the plate at 70/30 against. A move to first base means the power isn't a bonus, it's a must sapping much of his additional perceived value.
   
3. The Braves traded him QUICKLY after the end of the AFL! This is huge as the deal reeks of the Braves selling high and jumping at an opportunity to land a 200 inning workhorse without dealing Freeman, Heyward, Hanson, or Schafer.
4. Flowers STILL ranked in the bottom quarter of Baseball America's top 20 AFL prospects.
5. I have not read a single analysis of Flowers' performance saying his stock has significantly risen post AFL as he was, and still is a borderline top 100 player.
6. AFL statistics can be misleading as Eugenio Velez and Sam Fuld were two of the breakout performers from the 2007 AFL season. While both are not the prospects Flowers is, it's a good indicator of how misleading AFL output can be.
   

When combining his .291/.400/.488 career minor league line, AFL performance, and anecdotal information, I'm left agreeing with most prospect analysts who consider him a borderline top 100 player even after his dominating fall. At this point, too many question marks surround Flowers to consider him an elite talent.

Going forward, I would recommend Flowers owners to copy the Braves blueprint and strike while the iron is hot on Flowers. His perceived value to some will never be higher and if Flowers can land you a top 50 guy or solid veteran, I'd make the move. Flowers' situation is a lot like Jarrod Saltalamacchia's in that his power potential is elite for behind the plate, but average for a first baseman. With Flowers unlikely to stick at catcher, no time is better than the present to cash in on his value.

I saw him play in Savannah against the Rome Braves and wrote up a report for my blog.  Thought you would all want a look considering he's yours now.

Maikel Cleto, RHP, NYM -19-year old IFA from the Dominican Republic; (6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 8 K)

• Looked every bit of 218 lbs, but seemed shorter than his listed height of 6'3"
  
• Spent first two innings in the 92-94 range with his fastball.
• Velocity spiked in the 3rd and 4th as he was consistently hitting 94 and topping out at 97 MPH.
• Fastball seemed to lack movement.
  
• Breaking pitches were rudimentary at best. Looked as if he threw a cutter at 88-90 and a very poor curve in the upper 70's.
• Slowed arm action and altered mechanics tipped curve badly.
• Sling shot arm action. with size/mechanics, not much room for projection with the fastball. With it already at 92-97, does he need it?
  
• Bulldog on the mound, really attacked hitters and had a nice "swagger."

His fastball velocity, along with his demeanor has me thinking closer. Attitude and swagger resembled Ugueth Urbina. Needs SIGNIFICANT refinement or addition of a true second pitch to reach potential.

James over at Mets Tailgate posted a piece Thursday quickly breaking down the J.J. Putz to the Mets deal. I loved his breaking down the deal into smaller parts, and it helped me better analyze whether the Mets dealt too much for a pitcher projected to handle 8th inning duties.

To take James' piece a step further, the deal really needs to be split into two pieces.

1. Endy Chavez/Joe Smith for Sean Green/Jeremy Reed

Not much to say about this except both pairs of players are extremely similar from a statistical standpoint with Chavez being a few years older than Reed and Green being a few years older than Smith. If this deal had been made by itself, I'm not sure anybody would really know why both organizations even bothered.

2. J.J. Putz for Aaron Heilman, Mike Carp, Maikel Cleto, Jason Vargas, and Ezequiel Carrera

Much of Putz' value is based on the assumption he is now healthy and will revert to his 2006-2007 stat line when he was one of the top five closers in baseball. While his previous elbow injury behind him, this very well may happen, but Putz is far from a sure thing as the 31-year old is a relative late bloomer without a long track record of success who posted a downright terrifying 1.60 WHIP in 2008.

For the Mariners, Aaron Heilman is the biggest name to head west and could prove to be of value should he successfully revert back to the starting rotation. As a starter making somewhere in the neighborhood of two million, his numbers could rival Carlos Silva who the Mariners signed to a four year, forty-eight million dollar deal just an off season earlier.

At best, Claudio Vargas is a long reliever/mop up duty type who holds little to no apparent value.

Mike Carp and Maikel Cleto ranked numbers eight and eighteen respectively on my top 20 Mets prospect list. Carp's high end projection is similar to that of Lyle Overbay with Maikel Cleto being a young fireballer with questionable secondary offerings. In watching him pitch towards the end of the 2008 season, I was impressed with his hitting 97 MPH on the gun on a handful of occasions and maintaining his velocity deep into a late season game. While I don't see Cleto as a starter long term, I can see him definitely becoming a formidable closer should he develop a second pitch.

Carrera would have ranked in the top twenty-five Mets prospects had I extended the list out a few more spots, but projects as a 4th outfielder type as his ability to consistently drive the baseball is in question. However, his dozen triples and twenty-nine steals show speed, a tool which simply can not be taught.

In total, the Mets dealt quite a bit for a set up man whose injury plagued 2008 leaves question marks entering spring training. In defense of the Mets, the players dealt were spare parts in the organizational big picture and Omar Minaya was able to use the sum total of those parts to land a key component to the 2009 roster. It's obviously not a secret the Mets missed the playoffs because of their pen, and while the Mets may very well have dealt more than many organizations would have, a talented set up man is a necessity for a team who lacked the ability to close games out down the stretch.

Stud or Dud? - Austin Jackson, OF, NYY

Once again Howard Rudolph gets an assist for chipping in the "dud" portion of this piece. Howard and I both have a vested interest in Jackson as he fleeced me before the 2008 season by dealing me Carlos Carrasco/Austin Jackson for Ian Kinsler.

 

A tremendous athlete, Austin Jackson turned down a basketball scholarship to Georgia Tech to sign an over slot deal as an 8th rounder by the "Evil Empire." Now 21 and arguably the Yankees top prospect, Jackson has steadily moved up the ladder and should start the 2009 season an injury away from the "Big Apple."

Stud?

As a fantasy owner of Austin Jackson, I obviously hope for the best when trying to project his future. In hearing Bernie Williams comparisons from Yankees fans, I always questioned whether they were accurate assessments, or false prophecies. Here are the numbers;

Bernie Williams - .285/.394/.428 with 185 SB
Austin Jackson - .284/.356/.411 with 100 SB (approx. 670 less AB)

These numbers also include almost identical totals in both A+ and AA.

Based on numbers alone, Jackson and Williams are close. Williams seems to have had a slightly better offensive approach, but Jackson holds a slight edge in terms of raw athletic ability. With that said, athleticism is quite the equalizer in terms of accelerating the learning curve. Are Yankees fans are correct in anointing Jackson the next great Yankees center fielder? Considering Jackson is still a diamond in the rough, he has the potential to become one of the top center fielders in the American League.

Many will argue Jackson is over hyped based on so many Yankees prospects proving to be vastly overrated and Jackson's solid, but unspectacular stat line. With a long list of prospect flops including Ruben Rivera, Hensley Meulens, Sam Militello, and the struggles of both Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedy, I do not blame true prospect hounds for simply shrugging their collective shoulders at Austin Jackson.

However, Jackson is different from most Yankees prospects in that his tools are solid to a tick above across the board leaving him with a higher floor than other Yankees flops. When the Yankees built their dynasty from within, it was with players similar to Austin Jackson. The core of the great Yankees teams of the past decade were not made up of one dimensional mashers and 100 MPH fastballs. Yankees fans should take comfort in the notion Jackson would have fit in quite nicely on those championship teams and be confident about his future.

Dud?

It pains me as a Yankees fan to say that Austin Jackson will not be as good as the hype that he’s received, but short of becoming the next Bernie Williams, I don’t see it being possible. Jackson is a two-sport star with tremendous potential, but how many times have we heard that before? From observing and listening to others, I’ve learned that two sport stars are typically slower to develop but there comes a time when the potential has to become reality or that player is a dud.

Most people saw Jackson’s 258 at bat run for Class A+ Tampa in 2007 as the start of bigger and better things, but that didn’t materialize in 2008 with his promotion to AA Trenton. In 2007, the power was there and the contact was up, as evidenced by his .395 BABIP and 31 XBH in 258 at-bats. In 2008, his BABIP dropped to .348 and he had 46 XBH in 518 at-bats, which is closer to his other 770 at-bats in A Charleston. So where does he go from here and why do I think he will be a dud?

It’s hard to make a convincing case for Jackson as a dud because he has speed, youth and is young for the league he is in, even if 20-30 homerun power doesn’t develop. However, if the power does not develop and he’s a 5-10 home run guy, he’s not worthy of top prospect status.

What stands out to me is that he’s not particularly great or bad at anything, which makes him solid but not spectacular. Unfortunately, Coco Crisp comparisons are too close for comfort, as Crisp’s minor league line was .299/.372/.411 with 149 SB in 6 minor league seasons. Jackson is at .284/.356/.411 with 100 SB in 4 minor league seasons.

Jackson strikes out too much as well, which does not bode well as a top of the order hitter that he profiles as without the power. He has yet to play full season ball where he has struck out less than 100 times. Without improvement in either the power or plate discipline departments, I don’t see him as a much better player than Melky Cabrera.

If that happens, the Yankees will shuffle him in and out of the majors and ship him off to another team in trade and he’ll be yet another over hyped Yankees prospect that never reached their potential.

Stud or Dud? - Austin Jackson, OF, NYY

Once again Howard Rudolph gets an assist for chipping in the "dud" portion of this piece. Howard and I both have a vested interest in Jackson as he fleeced me before the 2008 season by dealing me Carlos Carrasco/Austin Jackson for Ian Kinsler.

 

A tremendous athlete, Austin Jackson turned down a basketball scholarship to Georgia Tech to sign an over slot deal as an 8th rounder by the "Evil Empire." Now 21 and arguably the Yankees top prospect, Jackson has steadily moved up the ladder and should start the 2009 season an injury away from the "Big Apple."

Stud?

As a fantasy owner of Austin Jackson, I obviously hope for the best when trying to project his future. In hearing Bernie Williams comparisons from Yankees fans, I always questioned whether they were accurate assessments, or false prophecies. Here are the numbers;

Bernie Williams - .285/.394/.428 with 185 SB
Austin Jackson - .284/.356/.411 with 100 SB (approx. 670 less AB)

These numbers also include almost identical totals in both A+ and AA.

Based on numbers alone, Jackson and Williams are close. Williams seems to have had a slightly better offensive approach, but Jackson holds a slight edge in terms of raw athletic ability. With that said, athleticism is quite the equalizer in terms of accelerating the learning curve. Are Yankees fans are correct in anointing Jackson the next great Yankees center fielder? Considering Jackson is still a diamond in the rough, he has the potential to become one of the top center fielders in the American League.

Many will argue Jackson is over hyped based on so many Yankees prospects proving to be vastly overrated and Jackson's solid, but unspectacular stat line. With a long list of prospect flops including Ruben Rivera, Hensley Meulens, Sam Militello, and the struggles of both Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedy, I do not blame true prospect hounds for simply shrugging their collective shoulders at Austin Jackson.

However, Jackson is different from most Yankees prospects in that his tools are solid to a tick above across the board leaving him with a higher floor than other Yankees flops. When the Yankees built their dynasty from within, it was with players similar to Austin Jackson. The core of the great Yankees teams of the past decade were not made up of one dimensional mashers and 100 MPH fastballs. Yankees fans should take comfort in the notion Jackson would have fit in quite nicely on those championship teams and be confident about his future.

Dud?

It pains me as a Yankees fan to say that Austin Jackson will not be as good as the hype that he’s received, but short of becoming the next Bernie Williams, I don’t see it being possible. Jackson is a two-sport star with tremendous potential, but how many times have we heard that before? From observing and listening to others, I’ve learned that two sport stars are typically slower to develop but there comes a time when the potential has to become reality or that player is a dud.

Most people saw Jackson’s 258 at bat run for Class A+ Tampa in 2007 as the start of bigger and better things, but that didn’t materialize in 2008 with his promotion to AA Trenton. In 2007, the power was there and the contact was up, as evidenced by his .395 BABIP and 31 XBH in 258 at-bats. In 2008, his BABIP dropped to .348 and he had 46 XBH in 518 at-bats, which is closer to his other 770 at-bats in A Charleston. So where does he go from here and why do I think he will be a dud?

It’s hard to make a convincing case for Jackson as a dud because he has speed, youth and is young for the league he is in, even if 20-30 homerun power doesn’t develop. However, if the power does not develop and he’s a 5-10 home run guy, he’s not worthy of top prospect status.

What stands out to me is that he’s not particularly great or bad at anything, which makes him solid but not spectacular. Unfortunately, Coco Crisp comparisons are too close for comfort, as Crisp’s minor league line was .299/.372/.411 with 149 SB in 6 minor league seasons. Jackson is at .284/.356/.411 with 100 SB in 4 minor league seasons.

Jackson strikes out too much as well, which does not bode well as a top of the order hitter that he profiles as without the power. He has yet to play full season ball where he has struck out less than 100 times. Without improvement in either the power or plate discipline departments, I don’t see him as a much better player than Melky Cabrera.

If that happens, the Yankees will shuffle him in and out of the majors and ship him off to another team in trade and he’ll be yet another over hyped Yankees prospect that never reached their potential.

Stud or Dud? - Drew Stubbs, OF, CIN

Before we get started, a special thanks to Howard Rudolph for contributing the "dud" portion of this piece. I've been playing fantasy baseball with Howard for a year and a half now and he's top notch when it comes to finding talent. We don't always agree, but he knows his stuff!

A controversial prospect in everyone's eyes, Stubbs was viewed as a big risk, big reward prospect coming out of college. He certainly has not disappointed by flashing gold glove caliber defense and good speed with decent power and pitch selection. While I'm certainly not sold on his future, I drew the short straw and have the task of defending his prospect status while finding enough silver linings to project a long and successful career as a major league regular.

Stud?

In thinking comps, Mike Cameron came to mind as a guy who Stubbs could wind up mirroring. While Cameron is not a "star," he has had a few seasons worthy of consideration. Should Stubbs wind up with 250+ home runs, 300+ steals, and 1,000+ RBI and runs scored, it's safe to say Reds brass would be ecstatic to say the least. Based on numbers alone, Stubbs is currently behind Cameron's pace, but Stubbs advancing three levels in a season may be a sign of a potential breakout in 2009. Here's why!

• Stolen base percentage and total steals have improved each season to a stellar 33/9 in 2008 which indicates one of his tools turning into production
• A solid 160 AB+ sample from AA/AAA show a player who is upping his game against better competition.
  
• The gold-glove caliber defense is still apparent
• 46 XBH and a .371 OBP are solid at any level. Production remained consistent or improved at each level.
  
• Walks remained consistent, while cutting down strikeouts by twenty.
• Accelerated his curve by reaching AAA. His development had been considered slow before his surge. Could he be in Cincy by September 2009?

Signs point to a possible breakout in 2009 and a spot with the Reds by as early as September. Yes, better players than he will ever be were drafted after him as shown below, but with so many first rounders flopping completely, a Cameron comp isn't half bad. With Cincinnati being a hitters park, Stubbs allows the Reds to sign big boppers with less than stellar defensive ability and let Stubbs do his best Kelly imitation from "The Bad News Bears" and catch everything. Should he chip in 20-20 to boot, he becomes not only Reds relevant, but fantasy relevant as well!

Dud?

In my opinion, Drew Stubbs is one of the most overrated prospects in all of baseball. He shows up on every Reds Top 10 Prospect List I have seen, ranging from 3rd to 8th on most lists, based on unrealized potential. What some may see in Stubbs as far as development, I see as the next Corey Patterson with more walks and less power. For those that nearly spit their soda all over the monitor, Patterson’s minor league line was .284/.336/.499 compared to Stubbs "awww" inspiring .269/.367/.415 line.

Stubbs’ defense is excellent, which will likely land him the starting CF job in Cincinnati within the next 2 years, even if he doesn’t hit well. The Reds could bat him at the bottom of the lineup and anything he produces offensively is a plus. However, this doesn’t make him a productive prospect, especially for the 8th pick in the draft. Though Stubbs will get many chances in the majors, just like Patterson, here is why I see Stubbs true potential as little more than a 4th OF and batting at the bottom of the Reds lineup in future years. Here's why!

• Lack of contact (27.9% K Rate) and mediocre OBP prevent him from batting at the top of the order.
• Last year, Stubbs went from a 16% walk rate in A+, to 11% in AA to 8% in AAA. Granted, 167 at bats above A+ isn’t a lot of data to work with, but it’s all there is to go on right now. Corey Patterson had a 7% walk rate in AAA in 1999.
• Mediocre power production. Stubbs is raw and needed time for the power to develop. Well, where is it? Besides a 75 at bat sample in AAA where is SLG was .480, his best slugging season was .421.
• Until Stubbs jumped to AA/AAA, he was old for the leagues he was in. A good 23 year old prospect should dominate A+ ball and younger pitchers. That didn’t happen. If he can’t dominate younger players, how will he produce when the players are older and better?
  

Stubbs needs to make substantial improvements very soon and I just don’t see it happening. The Reds passed up Tim Lincecum (#10), Max Scherzer (#11) and Travis Snyder (#14) to take Stubbs. Revisionist history says they’d love to have any of those three over Stubbs. Revisionist history will be proven correct.

Torre-ble!

Was it Yankees fans, the front office, or both who never fully appreciated the work of Joe Torre at the helm. After four world championships and two more American League titles, he was unceremoniously dumped by Yankees management for a younger, more energetic Joe Girardi in a show of desperation which aided in the Yankees not making the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade.

In one of Ned Colleti's finer moments, he seized the opportunity and signed Joe Torre to manage a combination of kids and veterans in the hopes of winning it all after two decades of disappointment in Dodger Town.

While Yankees fans' sour grapes led to their saying big deal to the Dodgers winning the NL West, game three of the divisional series against the Cubs was an unquestionable display of Joe Torre's greatness. Only a manager of Torre's character, stature, and good standing could sit the high salary players he did in favor of youth and ability without hearing as much as a whisper of dissent from the clubhouse or front office.

Let's take a look at the Dodgers starting lineup in game 3:

1. Rafael Furcal - 13 Mil.
2. Russ Martin - 500 K
3. Manny Ramirez - 20 Mil.
4. Andre Ethier - 425 K
5. James Loney - 411 K
6. Matt Kemp - 406 K
7. Blake Dewitt - 390 K
8. Casey Blake - 6.1 Mil.

Total - $41, 232,000

Now for the Bench:

Nomar Garciaparra - 8.5 Mil.
Jeff Kent - 9 Mil.
Juan Pierre - 8 Mil.

Left off the Roster:

Andruw Jones - 18.1 Mil. (Annual Avg.)

Total - $43.6 Mil. not including additional bench players

In many organizations, a manager benching more in salary than what appears in his starting lineup leaves the General Manager, players, and the manager himself open to infighting and criticism from outside the organization. Nomar was great in Boston, but a Boston Globe Reporter observed, " no player polluted the clubhouse more than Nomar, and in the end, he was the ultimate non-team guy." Jeff Kent tried to fight Barry Bonds in the clubhouse and recently took a shot at Vin Scully of all people for mentioning his offensive improvement with Manny Ramirez is hitting behind him in the Dodger lineup. And while Pierre and Jones do not have the reputation for having problems in the clubhouse, both players have enough of a major league resume to expect every opportunity to play even if not warranted.

Torre's decisions also put the job Ned Coletti has done as General Manager into the spotlight. In addition to the 43.6 million plus on the bench, he also has another 20+ million in pitching on the disabled list in Brad Penny and Jason Schmidt. Penny has had great success as a Dodger until this season, but Schmidt has been a mess since day one and will likely take his place just behind Darren Dreifort in the annals of the most useless players in Dodgers history. Calls for Coletti''s head have been numerous until his coup of adding Manny Ramirez for next to nothing.

Obviously winning the divisional series makes the organization look good, but doesn't it also expose Coletti? In other organizations, would a General Manager try to throw his weight around in order to get high priced players in the lineup? Brett Sullivan from Project Prospect mentioned Bobby Cox as another manager who's beyond reproach and I agree. Beyond Cox, I doubt any manager could manage the full gamut of egos Torre has had to deal with and not only survive unscathed, but turn in possibly his finest managerial performance cementing himself as a true managerial legend.

More Yankees reports can be found on Pinstripe Alley.

Scouting the Sally - Jesus Montero, C, NYY

Jesus Montero (3-5, 2 R, 1 SB) - The jewel of the 2006 international free agent class, Jesus Montero signed for a two million dollar bonus as a 16-year old which forced Yankees fans to wait until 2008 for him to make his full season debut. After a .326/.376/.491 showing as an 18-year old, Yankees fans have reason to be excited as Montero will enter 2009 as one of the top young hitting prospects in the game and the possibly the organizations #1 prospect.

• Excellent height with room to fill out and add muscle
• Holds hands very low in stance; bat head straight up and down (think Jose Oquendo)
  
• Gets taller during load; normal hitting position
• Excellent bat speed; Explodes through ball
• Compact through strike zone; Excellent at keeping hands inside the ball
• Even swing plane through strike zone; Line drive swing
• Creates top spin, not back spin on hard hit balls
• Works middle of the field well; Hard hit balls to left-center and center field
• Aware on base paths; Stolen base; Advanced to 2B on fly ball to center field
• Defensive ability is that of an average high school varsity player; Awkward behind the plate
  
• Threw first inning throw down into center field; Dropped elbow; Stood straight up; Did not fire out
• Strong arm when elbow stayed up; Long wind up; Did not throw from the ear
  
• Did not protect bare hand behind the plate when receiving pitches
  
• Did not back up first base on a 6-4-3 double play; Catching IQ?
• Demeanor may rub some the wrong way; Some may question his intensity
  

Overall, Montero was an exciting player to watch. With his advanced hitting approach and repeatable swing mechanics, I can see him competing for batting titles. At 18, he has time to learn how to add backspin, but his line drive power should allow him to hit 25-30 home runs annually even if he doesn't. After watching both Montero and Jason Heyward play, I'm convinced Montero is a better pure hitter at this point while Heyward remains a better all-around prospect because of his defensive ability.

On defense, Montero is part project, part butcher behind the plate. His current catching ability is eons behind his offense and it would take a minor miracle for his defense to catch up. With that said, I question the Yankees decision to keep him behind the plate when his offense could be ready for the show by 21, but his catching will likely not be ready until years later if ever. The sensible move would be to move Montero to first base and allow Austin Romine to cement himself as the Yankees catcher of the future.

One other point worth mentioning is Montero's overall demeanor. Old school baseball fans may not appreciate the way Montero plays the game. From dancing in his catching squat between innings, to joking with the umpires, baseball purists may mistake his and youth and confidence for arrogance. He's a guy that could be the toast of the town when playing well, but a goat when slumping. However, he does have a star quality about him which could make him a very marketable and popular player.

Scouting the Sally - Jesus Montero, C, NYY

Jesus Montero (3-5, 2 R, 1 SB) - The jewel of the 2006 international free agent class, Jesus Montero signed for a two million dollar bonus as a 16-year old which forced Yankees fans to wait until 2008 for him to make his full season debut. After a .326/.376/.491 showing as an 18-year old, Yankees fans have reason to be excited as Montero will enter 2009 as one of the top young hitting prospects in the game and the possibly the organizations #1 prospect.

• Excellent height with room to fill out and add muscle
• Holds hands very low in stance; bat head straight up and down (think Jose Oquendo)
  
• Gets taller during load; normal hitting position
• Excellent bat speed; Explodes through ball
• Compact through strike zone; Excellent at keeping hands inside the ball
• Even swing plane through strike zone; Line drive swing
• Creates top spin, not back spin on hard hit balls
• Works middle of the field well; Hard hit balls to left-center and center field
• Aware on base paths; Stolen base; Advanced to 2B on fly ball to center field
• Defensive ability is that of an average high school varsity player; Awkward behind the plate
  
• Threw first inning throw down into center field; Dropped elbow; Stood straight up; Did not fire out
• Strong arm when elbow stayed up; Long wind up; Did not throw from the ear
  
• Did not protect bare hand behind the plate when receiving pitches
  
• Did not back up first base on a 6-4-3 double play; Catching IQ?
• Demeanor may rub some the wrong way; Some may question his intensity
  

Overall, Montero was an exciting player to watch. With his advanced hitting approach and repeatable swing mechanics, I can see him competing for batting titles. At 18, he has time to learn how to add backspin, but his line drive power should allow him to hit 25-30 home runs annually even if he doesn't. After watching both Montero and Jason Heyward play, I'm convinced Montero is a better pure hitter at this point while Heyward remains a better all-around prospect because of his defensive ability.

On defense, Montero is part project, part butcher behind the plate. His current catching ability is eons behind his offense and it would take a minor miracle for his defense to catch up. With that said, I question the Yankees decision to keep him behind the plate when his offense could be ready for the show by 21, but his catching will likely not be ready until years later if ever. The sensible move would be to move Montero to first base and allow Austin Romine to cement himself as the Yankees catcher of the future.

One other point worth mentioning is Montero's overall demeanor. Old school baseball fans may not appreciate the way Montero plays the game. From dancing in his catching squat between innings, to joking with the umpires, baseball purists may mistake his and youth and confidence for arrogance. He's a guy that could be the toast of the town when playing well, but a goat when slumping. However, he does have a star quality about him which could make him a very marketable and popular player.

Scouting the Sally - Austin Romine, C, NYY

Austin Romine (0-5, 2 K) - Tallying four multi-hit games in his final five contests, Austin Romine rallied to finish his first professional season with a .300 batting average. Of course the game I attended was the stinker of the bunch and he DH'd to boot! Nevertheless, I remain bullish on Romine's future as his fluid movements and hitting approach should lead to offensive success at higher levels. For those unfamiliar with Romine's game, he is a former 2nd round draft pick in the 2007 draft who is known more for his defensive ability than offensive punch. Fortunately for the Yankees, his hitting approach has turned out to be more advanced than expected.

• Looked listed height/weight of 6'2", 215 lbs.
• Thick through shoulders; built well for a teenager
• Relaxed in the box; Looked very confident
• Short, compact stroke
• Good, quiet load
• Plus bat speed; Only Montero had better
• Worked up the middle; Line drives to center & left-center both caught
• Chased slider low & away

With a number of top catching prospects expected to break through next season, Romine should be a player who helps fill the catching prospect void. A borderline top 10 prospect at the position, continued success in 2009 will cement his status. However, as a former catcher, experience is key to understanding and playing the position well. I worry his splitting time with Jesus Montero will keep him from reaching his defensive potential. Especially with both Romine and Montero having success on offense and the possibility of both moving up the ladder together. It just seems like a huge waste having him spend 50 games at DH when he had 18 passed balls and threw out only 20% of runners attempting to steal. All-around catchers like Romine do not come around all that often. For the sake of the development of both Montero and Romine, it may be best for the Yankees to move Montero off the position sooner rather than later.

Scouting the Sally - Young Yankees

On 8/30/08, I had the chance to catch the Gnats face off against the Charleston Riverdogs in the closest the Sally League gets to a subway series. The Riverdogs, a Yankees affiliate sported an impressive crop of young talent led by top prospect Jesus Montero who will be featured in a later entry. Two less discussed prospects, Carmen Angelini and Abraham Almonte, take center stage in this piece as both spent the entire season as teenagers in full season baseball.

Carmen Angelini, SS (0-5, 3 K) - Angelini was a 10th round pick in the 2007 draft after slipping due to a strong commitment to Rice University. The Yankees signed him for first round money and promoted him aggressively to the Sally after making only one GCL appearance. On the field, Angelini stood out as a player with a smooth, fluid approach and significant polish. His 0-5 evening certainly was disappointing, but his all around approach and pedigree may lead to a breakout campaign sooner rather than later.

• Looked his listed height/weight of 6'2" 185 lbs.
• Thin through the shoulders; definite room to add strength and tone
• Excellent baseball movements
• Fundamentally sound
• Strong stance; Comfortable load
  
• Solid bat speed
• Struck out on hanging slider
• Struck out looking after taking two strikes on bunt attempts

With a .236/.302/.295 line in his first full season, Angelini's power ceiling looks limited. I've seen Derek Jeter comparisons online and was left scratching my head. While I don't see Angelini having a hall of fame type of career, I can see him becoming an everyday major league shortstop with an offensive game similar to Orlando Cabrera.

Abraham Almonte, OF (1-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 CS) - Almonte signed with the Yankees in 2005 as an IFA and finished the season with a .228/.303/.359 line with 29 stolen bases while manning center field for Charleston. Only 19, he still has room for improvement, but I was left underwhelmed by his performance. The first comparison to enter my mind was a bulked up Timo Perez which is not particularly exciting.

• Listed height/weight of 5'9" 205 looked about right
• Compact, sturdy frame
• Bat speed seemed slow
• Baseball IQ/focus lacking
• Struck out on three pitches first at bat
• Called out for hitting out of order: Hadn't seen that since little league
• Turned on a batting practice fastball for a home run just inside the right field foul pole

Almonte can spend another full season in the Sally League and not be old for the level of competition. In his case, it might be a good idea since he did have a few mental breakdowns and lacked the all around polish exhibited by Charleston's other position prospects. To his credit, he was named a mid-season all star before finishing under the Mendoza line during the second half. Maybe he was injured, or just tired, but I saw a player who deserves to repeat the level instead of advancing to the FSL with his more notable teammates.

I was able to catch the Riverdogs in late season action.  I wrote up a few players Yankees fans might be interested in.  Enjoy!

Scouting the Sally - Bradley Suttle, 3B, NYY

Bradley Suttle (0-4, 2 K) - Twice drafted, Bradley Suttle's latest selection was by the Yankees in the 4th round of the 2007 draft out of the University of Texas. After appearing in only three games after signing, Suttle received his first substantial professional action in 2008 with the Charleston Riverdogs. At 22, a .271/.348/.456 line in the Sally is underwhelming to say the least. In watching him play, his performance set off red flags as his lack of athleticism and age for the league left me questioning whether or not Suttle would be able to make the necessary adjustments as he proceeds up the organizational ladder.

• A solid, well built 6'2", 215
• Mechanical movements; Lacks athleticism
• Strong lower half
• Good bat speed; Drops barrel on the ball well
• Hitch in load; Load could be shorter
• Hands stay low during load; Below letters
  
• Has difficulty freeing his hands
• Strong arm
• Popped out to RF with men on 2nd and 3rd, 1 out

All in all, Suttle was not a player who would have stood out had I not known who he was entering the game. While he hit the ball hard a couple of times, his mechanical baseball movements tied his body up some. He seems like a player who is doing the best with what he has, only what he has might not be enough. A solid showing in A+ might put him firmly back on the prospect radar, but I'm just not sure he has the growth potential to do much more than he already is.

Scouting the Sally - Jason Heyward, OF, ATL

Jason Heyward (2-7, 1 K) - Jason Heyward fell into the Braves lap in the first round of the 2007 draft and has since skyrocketed up prospect charts to the point where he will likely be a consensus top 10 overall prospect prior to the 2009 season. He posted a .323/.388/.483 line with the Rome Braves earning a late season promotion to Myrtle Beach to gain some playoff experience. Heyward struggled the evening I watched him play, but showed polish far beyond his years leaving me with the impression that the sky is truly the limit for the Braves talented young outfielder.

• Impressive physical specimen; Broad shoulders, muscular forearms, and muscular legs all leave room for additional size and strength as he physically matures
• The "Greg Oden" of MILB; Looked much older than a teen
• Looked 1" taller than Freeman when standing next to him
• Very comfortable in the batters box; calm, fluid movements
• Over aggressive and out front on a handful of fastballs
• Power should spike with improved weight transfer
• Laced first pitch fastball for a single up the middle; Ball exploded off of his bat
• Guided a ground ball single back up the middle with two strikes; VERY professional at bat
• Displayed good timing and base running instincts; Great jump from second on steal attempt
• Vintage Darryl Strawberry came to mind when seeing him chase a ball into the corner; Threw ball from RF corner to almost 3B with little effort

Overall, Heyward showed a great deal of polish and baseball IQ on a night when he wasn't at his best. Seeing such a young player with an advanced approach like Heyward's has me believing he's a safer prospect play than most. The best comparison I can come up with is Justin Morneau with double digit stolen base potential. Morneau's career minor league line was .310/.375/.527 with developing power as he continued to mature. I can see Heyward's career following a similar path with his becoming an elite player for a number of seasons. In my opinion, he's currently the second best outfield prospect in the game behind Rasmus and could find himself as the #1 overall prospect in baseball before long.

Scouting the Sally - Jason Heyward, OF, ATL

Jason Heyward (2-7, 1 K) - Jason Heyward fell into the Braves lap in the first round of the 2007 draft and has since skyrocketed up prospect charts to the point where he will likely be a consensus top 10 overall prospect prior to the 2009 season. He posted a .323/.388/.483 line with the Rome Braves earning a late season promotion to Myrtle Beach to gain some playoff experience. Heyward struggled the evening I watched him play, but showed polish far beyond his years leaving me with the impression that the sky is truly the limit for the Braves talented young outfielder.

• Impressive physical specimen; Broad shoulders, muscular forearms, and muscular legs all leave room for additional size and strength as he physically matures
• The "Greg Oden" of MILB; Looked much older than a teen
• Looked 1" taller than Freeman when standing next to him
• Very comfortable in the batters box; calm, fluid movements
• Over aggressive and out front on a handful of fastballs
• Power should spike with improved weight transfer
• Laced first pitch fastball for a single up the middle; Ball exploded off of his bat
• Guided a ground ball single back up the middle with two strikes; VERY professional at bat
• Displayed good timing and base running instincts; Great jump from second on steal attempt
• Vintage Darryl Strawberry came to mind when seeing him chase a ball into the corner; Threw ball from RF corner to almost 3B with little effort

Overall, Heyward showed a great deal of polish and baseball IQ on a night when he wasn't at his best. Seeing such a young player with an advanced approach like Heyward's has me believing he's a safer prospect play than most. The best comparison I can come up with is Justin Morneau with double digit stolen base potential. Morneau's career minor league line was .310/.375/.527 with developing power as he continued to mature. I can see Heyward's career following a similar path with his becoming an elite player for a number of seasons. In my opinion, he's currently the second best outfield prospect in the game behind Rasmus and could find himself as the #1 overall prospect in baseball before long.

Scouting the Sally - Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL

Freddie Freeman (0-7, 4 K) - Freddie Freeman seems to have come out of nowhere as a 2nd round pick in the 2007 draft to become arguably the 2nd best hitter in the Braves organization behind Jason Heyward. This year at Rome, Freeman exhibited a great combination of hitting ability and power with a .316/.378/.521 line including 58 extra base hits. with his raw numbers more impressive than those of Jason Heyward, many assume both to be relatively equal prospects. After watching both play poorly and seeing which made adjustments first hand, I still believe Freeman to be a fine prospect, but question the assumption that Freeman and Heyward will both crack the Braves lineup at about the same time.

• Looked smaller than his listed 6'5"; About an inch shorter than Heyward who is listed at 6'4"
• Did not look 220 lbs.; Thinner frame than Heyward/Johnson
• Forearms were thin; Build similar to Casey Kotchman
• Lower body is thin through hips/quads; Room for growth?
  
• Upper body can be better defined; May not gain much more size
  
• Stance/Swing reminded me of Doug Mientkiewicz
  
• Front foot hitter
• Slightly awkward load; Happy feet in the box; Toe tapping
• Timing seemed off; Herky Jerky
  
• Chased outside fastball; Jammed on inside fastballs
• Torched foul line drive down the 1st base line
  
• Frustration bubbled over on the field; Slammed helmet to turf a couple of times

Seeing Freeman at his absolute worst is obviously going to leave me focusing more on the bad than good as it pertains to bullet points. However, Freeman's problems on this night can definitely be rectified quickly and may work themselves out naturally as he matures both physically and mentally. The bat speed, size, and baseball ability are all there, but the hitches in his load caused a domino effect which hindered his ability to time pitches and transfer weight correctly. I remain bullish on his potential and future, but am left feeling Freeman will need to relax his approach some and continue to mature to remain a dominant force as he moves up through the system.

Scouting the Sally - Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL

Freddie Freeman (0-7, 4 K) - Freddie Freeman seems to have come out of nowhere as a 2nd round pick in the 2007 draft to become arguably the 2nd best hitter in the Braves organization behind Jason Heyward. This year at Rome, Freeman exhibited a great combination of hitting ability and power with a .316/.378/.521 line including 58 extra base hits. with his raw numbers more impressive than those of Jason Heyward, many assume both to be relatively equal prospects. After watching both play poorly and seeing which made adjustments first hand, I still believe Freeman to be a fine prospect, but question the assumption that Freeman and Heyward will both crack the Braves lineup at about the same time.

• Looked smaller than his listed 6'5"; About an inch shorter than Heyward who is listed at 6'4"
• Did not look 220 lbs.; Thinner frame than Heyward/Johnson
• Forearms were thin; Build similar to Casey Kotchman
• Lower body is thin through hips/quads; Room for growth?
  
• Upper body can be better defined; May not gain much more size
  
• Stance/Swing reminded me of Doug Mientkiewicz
  
• Front foot hitter
• Slightly awkward load; Happy feet in the box; Toe tapping
• Timing seemed off; Herky Jerky
  
• Chased outside fastball; Jammed on inside fastballs
• Torched foul line drive down the 1st base line
  
• Frustration bubbled over on the field; Slammed helmet to turf a couple of times

Seeing Freeman at his absolute worst is obviously going to leave me focusing more on the bad than good as it pertains to bullet points. However, Freeman's problems on this night can definitely be rectified quickly and may work themselves out naturally as he matures both physically and mentally. The bat speed, size, and baseball ability are all there, but the hitches in his load caused a domino effect which hindered his ability to time pitches and transfer weight correctly. I remain bullish on his potential and future, but am left feeling Freeman will need to relax his approach some and continue to mature to remain a dominant force as he moves up through the system.

I enjoyed watching the Rome Braves play a little over a week ago and was able to take notes on many Rome players.  I hope you enjoyed reading my Erik Cordier report a few days ago.  Along with Johnson, I'll be adding Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward in the next couple of days.

Scouting the Sally - Cody Johnson, OF, ATL

Cody Johnson (1-6, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K) - I first wrote about Johnson in a "Fatal Flaw" piece questioning his future success based on his propensity to strike out far too much. After watching him play in person, my feelings about him have not changed. However, he will undoubtedly receive every opportunity to prove me wrong and will likely reach the bigs on power alone even if his other tools are below average across the board.

• Looked his listed height of 6'4"; Likely heavier than 195
  
• Great muscular build; NOT athletic
  
• Awkward physically in the outfield; Slow runner
• "Scrunched stants"; Did not look strong in the batters box
• Poor body language; Lacked confidence? Frustrated?
• Fooled often at the plate; Guess hitter?
• Same swing path for every pitch; Did not adjust for high/low pitches
• Late on 92+ MPH pitches; Lunges; Head pulls off the ball
• Doesn't follow through on swing finish
• Difficulty adjusting with two strikes; Guided bat through the zone instead of his "grip and rip" approach
• BIG power; Connected with 94 MPH fastball with 2 strikes for a 450-500 foot HR

Johnson turned out to be exactly as billed from everything I have read. The power is VERY real, but so is his being below average in all other aspects of his game. I see a great deal of Russ Branyan in him and believe he will have a similar career. His immense power will continue to tease and leave us wanting to believe in his being more than just a one-dimensional prospect. With that said, it would be wrong of me not to mention that in a quarter century of watching baseball in person, I would be hard pressed to recall such a mammoth shot being hit during a game situation. Using the phrase "light tower power" might not even to the home run justice.

It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to higher levels as pitchers throw less belt high fastballs and are able to locate multiple pitches. To be successful, Johnson will have to make significant adjustments to his hitting approach including the ability to take a strong swing at a something other than a belt high fastball. In this double header, he was behind just about every fastball he saw and flailed wildly at a couple of breaking balls low and away. With two strikes, his attempt at shortening up was to weakly guide his bat to the ball just hoping to make contact.

For comparison sake, take a look at Ryan Royster from 2007-2008. Royster's numbers dropped from .329/.380/.601 in the Sally to .265/.318/.373 in the FSL due high high strikeouts and discipline issues. With Johnson already at .250/.306/.478 with a jaw dropping 177 strikeouts, his numbers could become ugly in a hurry.

Scouting the Sally - Francisco Pena, C, NYM

Francisco Pena (1-3, 1 2B) - Signed as an International Free Agent by the Mets for $750,ooo, Francisco Pena is head and shoulders the best position prospect on the Savannah Sand Gnats roster. Unfortunately, this isn't saying much! Currently a bit of an enigma in the Mets system, People see a .268/.310/.387 line out of a 6'3", 230 lb. 18-year old and can't seem to figure out whether those numbers are boom or blah. While I'm not sure I know either, I do know that Pena looks to be in much better shape than at this time last season.

• Pena looked his listed 6'3", 230 lbs.
• Sported HUGE lower half; Lost the belly he had in 2007
  
• Physique looked closer to physical maturity than Jason Heyward or Freddie Freeman
• Needs to learn how to better use his size since there's not much projection left in his build
• Currently has slider bat speed
• Jammed badly during a couple of at bats
• Behind on every fastball he swung at
• Double down the LF line was off of a hanging curveball
• Moves well behind the plate for such a big catcher
• Made diving catch on a bunt attempt behind home plate
  
• Did not show much of his arm in between innings, but it was easy to tell the arm strength was there
• Slow runner; Will struggle to be even an average runner for the position

Pena looks like a ballplayer and certainly has the pedigree, but there's just something about him that makes me wonder why he isn't more at this point. I know he is young, but he seems a little lackadaisical and fades into the background in games I see him play. He just doesn't do anything to stand out. I read about his "star" power on other blogs, but I just don't see it. Major league average maybe, but his bat will need to improve a ton to get to that point. Fortunately, he has a few years to make that happen, but there's a saying in baseball that "you can't teach bat speed."

For more scouting reports, check out Baseball Handyman.

I had the chance to see Holdzkom play over the weekend.  Hopefully you all will like the report.  I played baseball through college and did a little scouting afterwards for a few colleges and a defunct showcase company.

Scouting the Sally - John Holdzkom, P, NYM

John Holdzkom (7 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 9 K) - Drafted in the 4th round by the New York Mets in the 2006 draft out of the Salt Lake Community College. He was previously drafted in the 15th round of the 2005 draft by the Seattle Mariners out of high school, but did not sign. A huge mound presence at 6'7", 225 lbs., I didn't quite know what to expect from him with a 6.92 ERA entering the evening. However, after his success in shutting down Rome's big three, I was left with no choice but to be impressed by the 20-year old's performance. Here are a few observations I came away from the game with;

• Mechanics could be a little tighter; Arms and legs seemed to be flying everywhere in his motion
• Limited athleticism?
  
• 1st inning - 86-91 fastball, topped out at 92 MPH
• In the middle innings, his fastball topped out at 95 with a handful of 94 MPH readings
• Fastball looked overpowering at times
• Consistently 88-91 in the 7th inning
• Began leaving fastballs up from the 5th on
  
• With 9 K, 3 BB, and other multi-pitch at bats, he had a pretty high pitch count
• With increased velocity came less control
• Less control from the stretch; Problems staying tall on his follow through
• Mid to high 80's cutter? Either that, or his FB velocity would differ greatly from pitch to pitch during particular at bats.
• Low to mid 80's change with good arm action; Unable to locate well
• May have snuck in a slider or two?
  
• Fought out of 1st and 2nd, 0 out jam by striking out Rome's #2 hitter and then getting Jason Heyward to ground into a 6-4-3
• Of the 2 hits allowed, 1 was a bunt hit
  
• One hard hit ball by Rome; 1st pitch L8 for a single by Heyward

Holdzkom's size and fastball are major league material to me. His size likely means a slower developmental curve than smaller pitchers because of problems repeating his mechanics as evidenced by 57 BB in 86 2/3 IP. I question whether a number of his strikeouts are a product of being able to blow it by lesser hitters. He will have trouble moving up without refining his breaking pitches and developing at least a serviceable 2nd offering. In my opinion, his change looked as if it had some potential with his arm action. He was wild with it, but I'd rather see balls in the dirt than changeups left belt high.

At this point, I can see him as possibly a power reliever, but not much else unless he can add to his repertoire. His getting Heyward to ground into a 6-4-3 double play in a scoreless ball game showed more guts than an ERA close to seven would indicate.

Sleeper Potential - Isaac Galloway, OF, FLA

Isaac Galloway's current .274/.293/.397 line in the GCL is about as pedestrian as it gets. Decent average, little on base ability and power would normally not warrant a second look. However, Galloway's skill set is much stronger than his numbers would indicate and his recent success on the field leads me to believe that he is just beginning to scratch the surface.

A former Aflac All-American and 36th ranked draft prospect by Baseball America, Galloway was drafted by the Florida Marlins in the 8th round of this years draft after being projected to go no later than the 2nd round because of signability issues. Surprisingly, he signed very quickly for $425,000 and has been available for almost the entire GCL season. This might not seem significant, but Galloway's tools are raw making every extra inning of experience important.

This shows in his monthly splits;

June - .211/.211/.316 (4 games)
July - .245/.272/.378
Aug. - .339/.348/.452

He has yet to show off his 6.5, 60 speed as he has been limited to four stolen bases so far, but his technique should improve with time. His approach also needs refining as a walk every 45 at bats just isn't going to cut it. Fortunately, Galloway has enough raw ability to still achieve some success while he improves on his deficiencies. As it currently stands, Galloway's ceiling is 3rd among outfielders in the Marlins system behind Cameron Maybin and Michael Stanton.

It's been difficult finding info on Boscan other than his great numbers.  Does anybody have any additional insight or info?

Impress Your Buds - Wilfredo Boscan, SP, TEX

Through the MLB draft and by raiding the IFA market, the Texas Rangers now find themselves flush with talented young pitchers. Often forgotten among the talk of 95 mile per hour fastballs and hammer curves is Wilfredo Boscan, an 18 year old IFA from the Dominican Republic who is currently undefeated in class A short season ball. With a 7-0 record and solid peripherals, he's looking like the next in a long line of talented Ranger pitching prospects.

let's take a look at Boscan's numbers;

Age 17 - 1.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, .210 BAA with a 61/13 K/BB in 56 2/3 IP @ DSL
Age 18 - 2.96 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .258 BAA with a 54/8 K/BB in 51 2/3 @ A- (SS)

Obviously, a 5.5/1 K/BB ratio at such a young age is impressive. Mix in a 54% GB rate and you have the makings of a pitcher saber-heads will clamor over. Boscan's only drawback is his 51 hits allowed in 51 2/3 IP, but this can be attributed to a rather high .338 BABIP and the possibility that he's just a young pitcher filling up the zone a little too much.  With his current peripherals, further adjustment to the United States, and the addition of some meat to his 6'2" 160 lb. frame, Boscan could take off.

Moore looks solid to me and I'm looking for all the info I can.  Can anybody add to this?

Sleeper Potential - Matthew Moore, SP, TB

In trying to find information on Matthew Moore after seeing his gaudy minor league stat line, I found the going a little tough. After not making Baseball America's top 30 prospects, or John Sickels top 20, Moore recently popped up on a Baseball America rookie league blog touting a solid outing so I decided to take a look. On paper, Moore's numbers are quite impressive;

Age 18 - 2.66 ERA, .160 BAA, 29/16 K/BB in 20 1/3 IP @ Rk
Age 19 - 2.03 ERA, .163 BAA, 64/16 K/BB in 44 1/3 IP @ Rk

Additionally, I found these prospect nuggets about Moore;

• 8th round pick by TB in the 2007 MLB draft
• Former N.M. 4A player of the year
• Scout quoted as saying Moore possesses an "overpowering" fastball
• Clocked as high as 94 MPH in high school
• By all accounts, his secondary offerings need work
  
• Brother pitches or pitched at the University of New Mexico
• Comes from a military family
  

With Tampa Bay hitting on so many pitching prospects right now, it's hard to ignore a 6'2" 205 lb. southpaw hitting 94 on the gun. I wonder just how far behind his secondary pitches remain as a 2nd year in rookie ball after having initial success in 2007.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Fatal Flaw? - Angel Salome, C, MIL

Angel Salome's favorite book must be "The Little Engine that Could." At 5'7", this pint-sized hitting machine is opening eyes and raising questions about whether a catcher of such small stature can be a quality everyday player.

As a hitter, Salome has put up numbers ranging from solid to spectacular;

Age 18 - .235/.271/.321 in Rk
Age 19 - .347/.399/.570 in Rk & A-
Age 20 - .292/.349/.447 in A-
Age 21 - .318/.341/.465 in A+
Age 22 - .356/.403/.538 in AA

While Salome doesn't walk much, he doesn't strikeout much either as exemplified by a career K/BB ratio of just under 2/1. In general, catchers with a .320/.367/.491 minor league line would draw considerable hype and high prospect rankings, but his stature has left many wondering where he fits in the big picture.

As a defender, Salome still needs work by all accounts, but his arm is just shy of howitzer status. As a former college catcher of smaller stature (5'9"), being well under 6' can actually be an advantage in providing a low target for pitchers and keeping compact throwing mechanics. Charles Johnson signaled the start of an era of taller catchers being the prototype, but as Eric Munson already knows, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia may soon find out, fielding the position is pretty damn hard for a player above 6'1". This may play to Salome's advantage.

At the major league level, no catcher I was able to find is listed as shorter than 5'9". In fact, there are many more major league catchers above 6'0" than below. Obviously Ivan Rodriguez is the biggest name on the 6' and under list, but Russ Martin (5'10") and Dioner Navarro (5'9") are also having considerable success as catchers of smaller stature. Still, these players are the exception, not the rule and there really is no track record for a 5'7" catcher having any sort of success at the big league level. With that said, for an organization to hand the reigns to Salome would be a tremendous leap of faith.

To say Salome won't be a quality major leaguer based on his height is a bit premature, but wondering if his size will keep him from receiving a fair shot isn't. Most scouts, especially older ones, will be the first to admit that they look at a player and instantly try to compare him to someone familiar. With no comparison available, Salome may have difficulty finding an opportunity to break the mold.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Impress Your Buds - Angel Morales, OF, MIN

A 3rd round draft pick in 2007, Angel Morales was drafted by the Twins as a speedy outfielder whose toolbox was full, but needed significant polish.

I've been watching Morales for a couple of months and he looks to be turning a corner. During the month of June, his K/BB ratio was a miserable 16/1, but his July/August ratios have shown significant improvement (2.4/1). He has produced all season as evidenced by his .322/.428/.623 line, but his 57 strikeouts in 146 at bats are worrisome and will need significant improvement. Fortunately, Morales will be only 19 in November and still has time to fine tune his offensive approach.

Morales was signed last week in a league I participate in with 30 minors keepers so it's safe to say he is already a blip on many owners radars. My recommendation would be to sign him in the deepest of leagues with minors keepers and watch him closely in shallow leagues. He may be facing a position change with Ben Revere moving to the FSL next season and Aaron Hicks manning center in the Midwest League. With his cannon arm, Morales and either Revere or Hicks would make for an awfully impressive outfield tandem.

Originally Written 8/8

Fatal Flaw? - Cody Johnson, OF, ATL

Cody Johnson entered the 2008 season as a borderline top 100 overall prospect. A former first rounder by the Atlanta Braves, Johnson's 2007 line of .305/.374/.630 had the organization excited about a potential breakout at Rome in his first full season assignment.

However, Johnson has been exposed by striking out a staggering 160 times in 397 at bats. I've read Adam Dunn comparisons since Johnson does have plus power potential as shown by his team leading 20 home runs after 17 last season, but people seem to forget that Dunn's career minor league line was .304/.415/.525 with a K/BB ratio of 270/230. MUCH better than Johnson's .258/.321/.483 line and K/BB ratio of 279/70. Dunn dominated at all levels of the minor leagues and was in the bigs at 21. Johnson is 19 and struggling to adjust in low A ball.

To compare Johnson to Dunn is a disservice to Adam Dunn. The Braves can only hope Johnson can turn it around and become half the prospect Dunn was and player he is. Unfortunately, his plate discipline seems too far gone for him to ever be an elite prospect and he will need to make significant improvements to continue to be considered a prospect period. People will continue to be enamored with his size and power potential, but I won't be. No amount of power can offset upwards of 200 strikeouts per season.

originally Posted 8/11

Sleeper Potential - Jon Gilmore, 3B, ATL

Ten years from now, a popular trivia question might be "which player was drafted by the Atlanta Braves between all-stars Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman in the 2007 draft?" As a supplemental 1st round pick, Jon Gilmore would be the correct answer.

Gilmore's reputation coming out of high school was that of a hitter with significant offensive potential, but rough around the edges. From my understanding, he did not participate in many national showcase events, and came on strong his senior season greatly upping his draft stock. However, with the lack of high level competition he faced, his transition to professional baseball was expected to be a little rocky. He didn't disappoint.

Age 18 - .286/.296/.346 in Rk
Age 19 - .173/.193/.173 in A-, .335/.363/.476 in Rk

Gilmore's less than stellar debut was followed by bombing at Rome which was made worse by Heyward and Freeman's explosive debuts in full season ball. However, he has rebounded nicely after his demotion and is currently posting a .455/.490/.614 August line after two, .300+ months.

Going forward, his stock will rise quickly should he continue his end of season surge. With the Braves still recovering from the Teixeira debacle, Gilmore could find himself in the top 10 Braves prospects entering 2009.

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J.P. Arencibia is receiving plenty of attention lately for his power surge (24 HR in A+ & AA) and his batters eye (13 BB in 428 AB.) While the home runs are impressive, the walk ratio is downright terrifying and will serve as an albatross around his neck as he moves up the ladder.

Take a look at these K/BB splits by level;

Rk - 56/14
A+ - 46/11
AA - 37/2

In comparison, baseball's most notorious "OBP offender," Jeff Francoeur, held a K/BB ratio of 264/89 or just less than 3 to 1 during his minor league career while Arencibia's currently sits at more than 5 to 1. One might say that Francoeur is an example of a player who overcame such bad ratios early on and achieved great success, but remember, Francoeur debuted for the Braves at 21 with Arencibia currently 22 and in AA. From age alone, common sense says Francoeur is a more talented player. Additionally, Arencibia's ratios should only get worse with each level. One has to wonder just how effective a player in the bigs with a six or seven to one K/BB ratio? I found a few players who give a good indication. I say only a few because the sample size of everyday major leaguers posting such poor ratios is minuscule.

Adam Jones - .279/.320 @ 4.8/1
Jose Guillen - .259/.290 @ 5.7/1
Kevin Kouzmanoff - .270/.311 @ 5.9/1
Carlos Gomez - .257/.291 @ 6.2/1

Power aside, Arencibia can be expected to post a line of .265/.290 or so at the big league level with his current K/BB rate. For those numbers to support any fantasy significance, he needs to post at least a .450 slugging percentage which would put him in the company of only Brian McCann, Joe Mauer and Geovany Soto among current catchers. Other than Matt Wieters, I'm not sure I have that kind of confidence in any current minor league catching prospects.