SB Nation User Blog: Baseball Handyman

Stud or Dud? - Austin Jackson

Baseball Handyman — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 18:39:09 -0000

Stud or Dud? - Austin Jackson, OF, NYY

Once again Howard Rudolph gets an assist for chipping in the "dud" portion of this piece. Howard and I both have a vested interest in Jackson as he fleeced me before the 2008 season by dealing me Carlos Carrasco/Austin Jackson for Ian Kinsler.

A tremendous athlete, Austin Jackson turned down a basketball scholarship to Georgia Tech to sign an over slot deal as an 8th rounder by the "Evil Empire." Now 21 and arguably the Yankees top prospect, Jackson has steadily moved up the ladder and should start the 2009 season an injury away from the "Big Apple."

Stud?

As a fantasy owner of Austin Jackson, I obviously hope for the best when trying to project his future. In hearing Bernie Williams comparisons from Yankees fans, I always questioned whether they were accurate assessments, or false prophecies. Here are the numbers;

Bernie Williams - .285/.394/.428 with 185 SB
Austin Jackson - .284/.356/.411 with 100 SB (approx. 670 less AB)

These numbers also include almost identical totals in both A+ and AA.

Based on numbers alone, Jackson and Williams are close. Williams seems to have had a slightly better offensive approach, but Jackson holds a slight edge in terms of raw athletic ability. With that said, athleticism is quite the equalizer in terms of accelerating the learning curve. Are Yankees fans are correct in anointing Jackson the next great Yankees center fielder? Considering Jackson is still a diamond in the rough, he has the potential to become one of the top center fielders in the American League.

Many will argue Jackson is over hyped based on so many Yankees prospects proving to be vastly overrated and Jackson's solid, but unspectacular stat line. With a long list of prospect flops including Ruben Rivera, Hensley Meulens, Sam Militello, and the struggles of both Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedy, I do not blame true prospect hounds for simply shrugging their collective shoulders at Austin Jackson.

However, Jackson is different from most Yankees prospects in that his tools are solid to a tick above across the board leaving him with a higher floor than other Yankees flops. When the Yankees built their dynasty from within, it was with players similar to Austin Jackson. The core of the great Yankees teams of the past decade were not made up of one dimensional mashers and 100 MPH fastballs. Yankees fans should take comfort in the notion Jackson would have fit in quite nicely on those championship teams and be confident about his future.

Dud?

It pains me as a Yankees fan to say that Austin Jackson will not be as good as the hype that he’s received, but short of becoming the next Bernie Williams, I don’t see it being possible. Jackson is a two-sport star with tremendous potential, but how many times have we heard that before? From observing and listening to others, I’ve learned that two sport stars are typically slower to develop but there comes a time when the potential has to become reality or that player is a dud.

Most people saw Jackson’s 258 at bat run for Class A+ Tampa in 2007 as the start of bigger and better things, but that didn’t materialize in 2008 with his promotion to AA Trenton. In 2007, the power was there and the contact was up, as evidenced by his .395 BABIP and 31 XBH in 258 at-bats. In 2008, his BABIP dropped to .348 and he had 46 XBH in 518 at-bats, which is closer to his other 770 at-bats in A Charleston. So where does he go from here and why do I think he will be a dud?

It’s hard to make a convincing case for Jackson as a dud because he has speed, youth and is young for the league he is in, even if 20-30 homerun power doesn’t develop. However, if the power does not develop and he’s a 5-10 home run guy, he’s not worthy of top prospect status.

What stands out to me is that he’s not particularly great or bad at anything, which makes him solid but not spectacular. Unfortunately, Coco Crisp comparisons are too close for comfort, as Crisp’s minor league line was .299/.372/.411 with 149 SB in 6 minor league seasons. Jackson is at .284/.356/.411 with 100 SB in 4 minor league seasons.

Jackson strikes out too much as well, which does not bode well as a top of the order hitter that he profiles as without the power. He has yet to play full season ball where he has struck out less than 100 times. Without improvement in either the power or plate discipline departments, I don’t see him as a much better player than Melky Cabrera.

If that happens, the Yankees will shuffle him in and out of the majors and ship him off to another team in trade and he’ll be yet another over hyped Yankees prospect that never reached their potential.

Stud or Dud? - Austin Jackson

Baseball Handyman — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 18:37:56 -0000

Stud or Dud? - Austin Jackson, OF, NYY

Stud?

Stud or Dud? Drew Stubbs, OF, CIN

Baseball Handyman — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 14:28:15 -0000

Stud or Dud? - Drew Stubbs, OF, CIN

Before we get started, a special thanks to Howard Rudolph for contributing the "dud" portion of this piece. I've been playing fantasy baseball with Howard for a year and a half now and he's top notch when it comes to finding talent. We don't always agree, but he knows his stuff!

A controversial prospect in everyone's eyes, Stubbs was viewed as a big risk, big reward prospect coming out of college. He certainly has not disappointed by flashing gold glove caliber defense and good speed with decent power and pitch selection. While I'm certainly not sold on his future, I drew the short straw and have the task of defending his prospect status while finding enough silver linings to project a long and successful career as a major league regular.

Stud?

In thinking comps, Mike Cameron came to mind as a guy who Stubbs could wind up mirroring. While Cameron is not a "star," he has had a few seasons worthy of consideration. Should Stubbs wind up with 250+ home runs, 300+ steals, and 1,000+ RBI and runs scored, it's safe to say Reds brass would be ecstatic to say the least. Based on numbers alone, Stubbs is currently behind Cameron's pace, but Stubbs advancing three levels in a season may be a sign of a potential breakout in 2009. Here's why!

Stolen base percentage and total steals have improved each season to a stellar 33/9 in 2008 which indicates one of his tools turning into production
A solid 160 AB+ sample from AA/AAA show a player who is upping his game against better competition.
The gold-glove caliber defense is still apparent
46 XBH and a .371 OBP are solid at any level. Production remained consistent or improved at each level.
Walks remained consistent, while cutting down strikeouts by twenty.
Accelerated his curve by reaching AAA. His development had been considered slow before his surge. Could he be in Cincy by September 2009?

Signs point to a possible breakout in 2009 and a spot with the Reds by as early as September. Yes, better players than he will ever be were drafted after him as shown below, but with so many first rounders flopping completely, a Cameron comp isn't half bad. With Cincinnati being a hitters park, Stubbs allows the Reds to sign big boppers with less than stellar defensive ability and let Stubbs do his best Kelly imitation from "The Bad News Bears" and catch everything. Should he chip in 20-20 to boot, he becomes not only Reds relevant, but fantasy relevant as well!

Dud?

In my opinion, Drew Stubbs is one of the most overrated prospects in all of baseball. He shows up on every Reds Top 10 Prospect List I have seen, ranging from 3rd to 8th on most lists, based on unrealized potential. What some may see in Stubbs as far as development, I see as the next Corey Patterson with more walks and less power. For those that nearly spit their soda all over the monitor, Patterson’s minor league line was .284/.336/.499 compared to Stubbs "awww" inspiring .269/.367/.415 line.

Stubbs’ defense is excellent, which will likely land him the starting CF job in Cincinnati within the next 2 years, even if he doesn’t hit well. The Reds could bat him at the bottom of the lineup and anything he produces offensively is a plus. However, this doesn’t make him a productive prospect, especially for the 8th pick in the draft. Though Stubbs will get many chances in the majors, just like Patterson, here is why I see Stubbs true potential as little more than a 4th OF and batting at the bottom of the Reds lineup in future years. Here's why!

Lack of contact (27.9% K Rate) and mediocre OBP prevent him from batting at the top of the order.
Last year, Stubbs went from a 16% walk rate in A+, to 11% in AA to 8% in AAA. Granted, 167 at bats above A+ isn’t a lot of data to work with, but it’s all there is to go on right now. Corey Patterson had a 7% walk rate in AAA in 1999.
Mediocre power production. Stubbs is raw and needed time for the power to develop. Well, where is it? Besides a 75 at bat sample in AAA where is SLG was .480, his best slugging season was .421.
Until Stubbs jumped to AA/AAA, he was old for the leagues he was in. A good 23 year old prospect should dominate A+ ball and younger pitchers. That didn’t happen. If he can’t dominate younger players, how will he produce when the players are older and better?

Stubbs needs to make substantial improvements very soon and I just don’t see it happening. The Reds passed up Tim Lincecum (#10), Max Scherzer (#11) and Travis Snyder (#14) to take Stubbs. Revisionist history says they’d love to have any of those three over Stubbs. Revisionist history will be proven correct.

The Greatness of Joe Torre

Baseball Handyman — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 13:27:03 -0000

Torre-ble!

Was it Yankees fans, the front office, or both who never fully appreciated the work of Joe Torre at the helm. After four world championships and two more American League titles, he was unceremoniously dumped by Yankees management for a younger, more energetic Joe Girardi in a show of desperation which aided in the Yankees not making the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade.

In one of Ned Colleti's finer moments, he seized the opportunity and signed Joe Torre to manage a combination of kids and veterans in the hopes of winning it all after two decades of disappointment in Dodger Town.

While Yankees fans' sour grapes led to their saying big deal to the Dodgers winning the NL West, game three of the divisional series against the Cubs was an unquestionable display of Joe Torre's greatness. Only a manager of Torre's character, stature, and good standing could sit the high salary players he did in favor of youth and ability without hearing as much as a whisper of dissent from the clubhouse or front office.

Let's take a look at the Dodgers starting lineup in game 3:

1. Rafael Furcal - 13 Mil.
2. Russ Martin - 500 K
3. Manny Ramirez - 20 Mil.
4. Andre Ethier - 425 K
5. James Loney - 411 K
6. Matt Kemp - 406 K
7. Blake Dewitt - 390 K
8. Casey Blake - 6.1 Mil.

Total - $41, 232,000

Now for the Bench:

Nomar Garciaparra - 8.5 Mil.
Jeff Kent - 9 Mil.
Juan Pierre - 8 Mil.

Left off the Roster:

Andruw Jones - 18.1 Mil. (Annual Avg.)

Total - $43.6 Mil. not including additional bench players

In many organizations, a manager benching more in salary than what appears in his starting lineup leaves the General Manager, players, and the manager himself open to infighting and criticism from outside the organization. Nomar was great in Boston, but a Boston Globe Reporter observed, " no player polluted the clubhouse more than Nomar, and in the end, he was the ultimate non-team guy." Jeff Kent tried to fight Barry Bonds in the clubhouse and recently took a shot at Vin Scully of all people for mentioning his offensive improvement with Manny Ramirez is hitting behind him in the Dodger lineup. And while Pierre and Jones do not have the reputation for having problems in the clubhouse, both players have enough of a major league resume to expect every opportunity to play even if not warranted.

Torre's decisions also put the job Ned Coletti has done as General Manager into the spotlight. In addition to the 43.6 million plus on the bench, he also has another 20+ million in pitching on the disabled list in Brad Penny and Jason Schmidt. Penny has had great success as a Dodger until this season, but Schmidt has been a mess since day one and will likely take his place just behind Darren Dreifort in the annals of the most useless players in Dodgers history. Calls for Coletti''s head have been numerous until his coup of adding Manny Ramirez for next to nothing.

Obviously winning the divisional series makes the organization look good, but doesn't it also expose Coletti? In other organizations, would a General Manager try to throw his weight around in order to get high priced players in the lineup? Brett Sullivan from Project Prospect mentioned Bobby Cox as another manager who's beyond reproach and I agree. Beyond Cox, I doubt any manager could manage the full gamut of egos Torre has had to deal with and not only survive unscathed, but turn in possibly his finest managerial performance cementing himself as a true managerial legend.

Jesus Montero Game Report

Baseball Handyman — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 19:24:03 -0000

More Yankees reports can be found on Pinstripe Alley.

Scouting the Sally - Jesus Montero, C, NYY

Jesus Montero (3-5, 2 R, 1 SB) - The jewel of the 2006 international free agent class, Jesus Montero signed for a two million dollar bonus as a 16-year old which forced Yankees fans to wait until 2008 for him to make his full season debut. After a .326/.376/.491 showing as an 18-year old, Yankees fans have reason to be excited as Montero will enter 2009 as one of the top young hitting prospects in the game and the possibly the organizations #1 prospect.

Excellent height with room to fill out and add muscle
Holds hands very low in stance; bat head straight up and down (think Jose Oquendo)
Gets taller during load; normal hitting position
Excellent bat speed; Explodes through ball
Compact through strike zone; Excellent at keeping hands inside the ball
Even swing plane through strike zone; Line drive swing
Creates top spin, not back spin on hard hit balls
Works middle of the field well; Hard hit balls to left-center and center field
Aware on base paths; Stolen base; Advanced to 2B on fly ball to center field
Defensive ability is that of an average high school varsity player; Awkward behind the plate
Threw first inning throw down into center field; Dropped elbow; Stood straight up; Did not fire out
Strong arm when elbow stayed up; Long wind up; Did not throw from the ear
Did not protect bare hand behind the plate when receiving pitches
Did not back up first base on a 6-4-3 double play; Catching IQ?
Demeanor may rub some the wrong way; Some may question his intensity

Overall, Montero was an exciting player to watch. With his advanced hitting approach and repeatable swing mechanics, I can see him competing for batting titles. At 18, he has time to learn how to add backspin, but his line drive power should allow him to hit 25-30 home runs annually even if he doesn't. After watching both Montero and Jason Heyward play, I'm convinced Montero is a better pure hitter at this point while Heyward remains a better all-around prospect because of his defensive ability.

On defense, Montero is part project, part butcher behind the plate. His current catching ability is eons behind his offense and it would take a minor miracle for his defense to catch up. With that said, I question the Yankees decision to keep him behind the plate when his offense could be ready for the show by 21, but his catching will likely not be ready until years later if ever. The sensible move would be to move Montero to first base and allow Austin Romine to cement himself as the Yankees catcher of the future.

One other point worth mentioning is Montero's overall demeanor. Old school baseball fans may not appreciate the way Montero plays the game. From dancing in his catching squat between innings, to joking with the umpires, baseball purists may mistake his and youth and confidence for arrogance. He's a guy that could be the toast of the town when playing well, but a goat when slumping. However, he does have a star quality about him which could make him a very marketable and popular player.

Jesus Montero Game Report

Baseball Handyman — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 19:22:47 -0000

Scouting the Sally - Jesus Montero, C, NYY

Excellent height with room to fill out and add muscle
Holds hands very low in stance; bat head straight up and down (think Jose Oquendo)
Gets taller during load; normal hitting position
Excellent bat speed; Explodes through ball
Compact through strike zone; Excellent at keeping hands inside the ball
Even swing plane through strike zone; Line drive swing
Creates top spin, not back spin on hard hit balls
Works middle of the field well; Hard hit balls to left-center and center field
Aware on base paths; Stolen base; Advanced to 2B on fly ball to center field
Defensive ability is that of an average high school varsity player; Awkward behind the plate
Threw first inning throw down into center field; Dropped elbow; Stood straight up; Did not fire out
Strong arm when elbow stayed up; Long wind up; Did not throw from the ear
Did not protect bare hand behind the plate when receiving pitches
Did not back up first base on a 6-4-3 double play; Catching IQ?
Demeanor may rub some the wrong way; Some may question his intensity

Austin Romine Game Report

Baseball Handyman — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 19:32:13 -0000

Scouting the Sally - Austin Romine, C, NYY

Austin Romine (0-5, 2 K) - Tallying four multi-hit games in his final five contests, Austin Romine rallied to finish his first professional season with a .300 batting average. Of course the game I attended was the stinker of the bunch and he DH'd to boot! Nevertheless, I remain bullish on Romine's future as his fluid movements and hitting approach should lead to offensive success at higher levels. For those unfamiliar with Romine's game, he is a former 2nd round draft pick in the 2007 draft who is known more for his defensive ability than offensive punch. Fortunately for the Yankees, his hitting approach has turned out to be more advanced than expected.

Looked listed height/weight of 6'2", 215 lbs.
Thick through shoulders; built well for a teenager
Relaxed in the box; Looked very confident
Short, compact stroke
Good, quiet load
Plus bat speed; Only Montero had better
Worked up the middle; Line drives to center & left-center both caught
Chased slider low & away

With a number of top catching prospects expected to break through next season, Romine should be a player who helps fill the catching prospect void. A borderline top 10 prospect at the position, continued success in 2009 will cement his status. However, as a former catcher, experience is key to understanding and playing the position well. I worry his splitting time with Jesus Montero will keep him from reaching his defensive potential. Especially with both Romine and Montero having success on offense and the possibility of both moving up the ladder together. It just seems like a huge waste having him spend 50 games at DH when he had 18 passed balls and threw out only 20% of runners attempting to steal. All-around catchers like Romine do not come around all that often. For the sake of the development of both Montero and Romine, it may be best for the Yankees to move Montero off the position sooner rather than later.

More Yankees Prospect Reports from Charleston

Baseball Handyman — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 02:20:43 -0000

Scouting the Sally - Young Yankees

On 8/30/08, I had the chance to catch the Gnats face off against the Charleston Riverdogs in the closest the Sally League gets to a subway series. The Riverdogs, a Yankees affiliate sported an impressive crop of young talent led by top prospect Jesus Montero who will be featured in a later entry. Two less discussed prospects, Carmen Angelini and Abraham Almonte, take center stage in this piece as both spent the entire season as teenagers in full season baseball.

Carmen Angelini, SS (0-5, 3 K) - Angelini was a 10th round pick in the 2007 draft after slipping due to a strong commitment to Rice University. The Yankees signed him for first round money and promoted him aggressively to the Sally after making only one GCL appearance. On the field, Angelini stood out as a player with a smooth, fluid approach and significant polish. His 0-5 evening certainly was disappointing, but his all around approach and pedigree may lead to a breakout campaign sooner rather than later.

Looked his listed height/weight of 6'2" 185 lbs.
Thin through the shoulders; definite room to add strength and tone
Excellent baseball movements
Fundamentally sound
Strong stance; Comfortable load
Solid bat speed
Struck out on hanging slider
Struck out looking after taking two strikes on bunt attempts

With a .236/.302/.295 line in his first full season, Angelini's power ceiling looks limited. I've seen Derek Jeter comparisons online and was left scratching my head. While I don't see Angelini having a hall of fame type of career, I can see him becoming an everyday major league shortstop with an offensive game similar to Orlando Cabrera.

Abraham Almonte, OF (1-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 CS) - Almonte signed with the Yankees in 2005 as an IFA and finished the season with a .228/.303/.359 line with 29 stolen bases while manning center field for Charleston. Only 19, he still has room for improvement, but I was left underwhelmed by his performance. The first comparison to enter my mind was a bulked up Timo Perez which is not particularly exciting.

Listed height/weight of 5'9" 205 looked about right
Compact, sturdy frame
Bat speed seemed slow
Baseball IQ/focus lacking
Struck out on three pitches first at bat
Called out for hitting out of order: Hadn't seen that since little league
Turned on a batting practice fastball for a home run just inside the right field foul pole

Almonte can spend another full season in the Sally League and not be old for the level of competition. In his case, it might be a good idea since he did have a few mental breakdowns and lacked the all around polish exhibited by Charleston's other position prospects. To his credit, he was named a mid-season all star before finishing under the Mendoza line during the second half. Maybe he was injured, or just tired, but I saw a player who deserves to repeat the level instead of advancing to the FSL with his more notable teammates.

Bradley Suttle Game Report (8/25/08)

Baseball Handyman — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 02:18:30 -0000

I was able to catch the Riverdogs in late season action. I wrote up a few players Yankees fans might be interested in. Enjoy!

Scouting the Sally - Bradley Suttle, 3B, NYY

Bradley Suttle (0-4, 2 K) - Twice drafted, Bradley Suttle's latest selection was by the Yankees in the 4th round of the 2007 draft out of the University of Texas. After appearing in only three games after signing, Suttle received his first substantial professional action in 2008 with the Charleston Riverdogs. At 22, a .271/.348/.456 line in the Sally is underwhelming to say the least. In watching him play, his performance set off red flags as his lack of athleticism and age for the league left me questioning whether or not Suttle would be able to make the necessary adjustments as he proceeds up the organizational ladder.

A solid, well built 6'2", 215
Mechanical movements; Lacks athleticism
Strong lower half
Good bat speed; Drops barrel on the ball well
Hitch in load; Load could be shorter
Hands stay low during load; Below letters
Has difficulty freeing his hands
Strong arm
Popped out to RF with men on 2nd and 3rd, 1 out

All in all, Suttle was not a player who would have stood out had I not known who he was entering the game. While he hit the ball hard a couple of times, his mechanical baseball movements tied his body up some. He seems like a player who is doing the best with what he has, only what he has might not be enough. A solid showing in A+ might put him firmly back on the prospect radar, but I'm just not sure he has the growth potential to do much more than he already is.

Jason Heyward Game Report (August '08)

Baseball Handyman — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 20:55:28 -0000

Scouting the Sally - Jason Heyward, OF, ATL

Jason Heyward (2-7, 1 K) - Jason Heyward fell into the Braves lap in the first round of the 2007 draft and has since skyrocketed up prospect charts to the point where he will likely be a consensus top 10 overall prospect prior to the 2009 season. He posted a .323/.388/.483 line with the Rome Braves earning a late season promotion to Myrtle Beach to gain some playoff experience. Heyward struggled the evening I watched him play, but showed polish far beyond his years leaving me with the impression that the sky is truly the limit for the Braves talented young outfielder.

Impressive physical specimen; Broad shoulders, muscular forearms, and muscular legs all leave room for additional size and strength as he physically matures
The "Greg Oden" of MILB; Looked much older than a teen
Looked 1" taller than Freeman when standing next to him
Very comfortable in the batters box; calm, fluid movements
Over aggressive and out front on a handful of fastballs
Power should spike with improved weight transfer
Laced first pitch fastball for a single up the middle; Ball exploded off of his bat
Guided a ground ball single back up the middle with two strikes; VERY professional at bat
Displayed good timing and base running instincts; Great jump from second on steal attempt
Vintage Darryl Strawberry came to mind when seeing him chase a ball into the corner; Threw ball from RF corner to almost 3B with little effort

Overall, Heyward showed a great deal of polish and baseball IQ on a night when he wasn't at his best. Seeing such a young player with an advanced approach like Heyward's has me believing he's a safer prospect play than most. The best comparison I can come up with is Justin Morneau with double digit stolen base potential. Morneau's career minor league line was .310/.375/.527 with developing power as he continued to mature. I can see Heyward's career following a similar path with his becoming an elite player for a number of seasons. In my opinion, he's currently the second best outfield prospect in the game behind Rasmus and could find himself as the #1 overall prospect in baseball before long.