Spurs underperform in back-to-backs

Baseline Bums — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:20:19 -0000

At one level, the talk about the Spurs in the 2nd game of a back-to-back is overblown. Since the 2005-06 season, the Spurs are 43-29 straight-up in these games (28-24 on road; 15-5 at home), including 0-2 this year (both road games). But they actually underperform, to the extent they are 27-45 (37.5%) against the spread (ATS), which is an indicator of whether you are playing well in those games. The league average is 49.2% ATS. Certainly, you could be playing at home against the Grizzlies, and not play that well, yet still win, so that's the value of the ATS number. This year, we have 17 of such games, but what's really disturbing to me is that 15 of the 17 are coming away from home. That's generally the case that most come on the road, but the NBA league average is 68% away, so 15 of 17 (88%) away from home is well off the average. In the past 3 seasons, our average was 29% at home; 71% of the games away.

Current 2010 Title Odds (Spurs 4th Choice)

Baseline Bums — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 23:33:24 -0000

The Greek Sportsbook currently has the Spurs at 10-1 to win the title next season, with the Lakers (5-2), Cavaliers (7-2) and Celtics (11-2) ahead. Orlando and Denver are after the Spurs and have 16-1 odds. No other franchise has a remote chance besides those six teams.

By the way, if there are any Spurs fans living in Los Angeles (unfortunately, that's where I live), I have some terrific Spurs photos (framed) from their 2005 series vs Detroit and their 2007 series vs Cleveland and Phoenix that I need to get rid of. So, if you want some free memorabilia, give me a shout at almcmordie@yahoo.com. (I have autographed game worn jerseys too.)

At 10-1 odds, the Spurs offer the best value among the contenders, and I think are a worthwhile bet at that price.

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Spurs underperform in back-to-backs

Current 2010 Title Odds (Spurs 4th Choice)