It's probably not going to happen.  But baby, there's a chance.  And that's all we need.

Time has a funny way of doing...things...for a lack of a better word.  It can heal.  It can bury.  It can set on med-high and simmer, covered, for 30 minutes.  It can erase.  It can embrace.  It can fly.  It can also tell a story.  Last fall, I wrote what I consider to be the best post I've ever written.  I called it "Myths and Legends."  In it, I related that a myth, in some definition, is simply a story that has endured.  The legends are the people who play a part.  Michigan vs. Ohio State, in some form, is a myth.  It's an ongoing story told over the past 10 decades, and paid for in sweat by those legends who have added to it.  It has endured.  Time has allowed for this story - the story of a simple game - to grow up; to become not-so-simple. 

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And it's here, in 2009 (somehow) that we sit down on the eve of the next chapter.  Michigan is a mess.  And yet, for all the things that time can do, the one thing it can't is back-up.  There is no other direction, in life, or in this mythical story of Michigan vs. Ohio State; there is NO DIRECTION other than forward.  Tomorrow, at noon eastern time, the next chapter is written.  After the game, it will go into the past as a part of the myth written by THESE LEGENDS.  Not the legends of past; they've had their shot.  THESE LEGENDS will be the men who run under that banner on Saturday and play with a ferocity that you, or I, or anybody who has never participated in the myth will never know.  These are the legends of 2009.  These young men who get to directly experience something that many pay a good amount of money to simply watch. 

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Tomorrow, young men will go to the stadium, like they have every other Saturday, and put on their armor.  It marks the end for some.  It marks the beginning for others. 

These are your legends.  These are the men with whom I take the field.  It's stupid, I know, to think this way.  Sports are like that.  But when you watch these men, some over the course of 4 years, you feel like you know them a little bit.  And you live and die with that.  This is the end for Brandon Graham, Brandon Minor, Zoltan Mesko, and the one we call Coner.  It's the beginning for Tate Forcier, Vincent Smith, Denard Robinson, and Roy Roundtree.  Nothing changes about this game except that time forces it along it's way, establishing new legends, and new chapters to add to the voluminous history.  This year might be tough, but this is my team, and once again I'm left with the simple conclusion:

You are Ohio State.  And we're going to beat your ass.

These past three years, barring some fleeting bright spots, have been unrelentingly painful for anybody who follows Michigan football with any kind of passion.  For the first time in my life, I can honestly say that I look forward to watching the NFL on Sundays.  I can't wait for basketball season to start.  When was the last time you heard that from a Michigan fan?  These last three years, I find myself asking why I care so much; why the damage total thus far is 1 cell phone, window blinds, a wine glass, angry downstairs neighbors, a frightened dog, and a spouse who has asked more than once "shouldn't this be fun?"

Shouldn't it be?

Writing about this team is hard - you may have noticed.  Some of the apathy can be attributed to some personal changes that myself and Dave have been going through (all good things - not to worry), but some of it can be blamed on the simple fact that this isn't as fun as it used to be.  Not the blogging, mind you, but the whole "being a Michigan football fan" part.  As Brian at Mgoblog pointed out in his post-game bullets post, having a conversation about Michigan football these days in about as useful as slamming your head into a car door repeatedly.  Painful at first, but soon there's just a swimming blackness as you bleed out.  Unfortunately, that metaphor ends in death, and equally unfortunate is the fact that nearly every conversation I've had about Michigan football has had me wishing for it by the conclusion.  Typically, they fall into four categories:

1)  Sympathetic Michigan fan.  You're lucky if you've got one of there.  Saturday non-withstanding, I am lucky to have SCM around for this.

2)  Reactionary Michigan fan.  Fire the whole staff type stuff; we should go 13-0 every season given the talent, bler bler bler.

3)  Sympathetic Opposing fan.  Really there for the schadenfreude of it all, but will pretend to care.

4)  Reactionary Opposing fan.  This guy just wants to watch Michigan burn to the ground.

This blog, if we can allow a peek behind the curtains, isn't the most commented on piece of work on the internets.  And I'm ok with that.  I know people are reading, it allows me to write, which I enjoy doing, and sometimes you get some fun little debates.  The loss last Saturday prompted not just one, but five (Brian is laughing hysterically right now  - "a whole FIVE?!?") emails in my inbox.  Most included the dreaded ALL CAPS RESPONSE WITH MULTIPLE EXCLAMATION POINTS FOR EMPHASIS.  All wanted Rodriguez and his staff fired. 

For the record: I believe it would be a mistake of nearly irreparable proportions if Rodriguez is fired after this year.  When you look at some of the most successful teams in both the NFL and college, you have two things:  continuity at coaching, and continuity at quarterback.  Throughout his tenure, and for much of the latter part of Carr's tenure (I'm looking at you, defensive coordinator), Rodriguez and his players have had neither.  He hasn't had time.  Forcier, believe it or not, is good enough to provide the continuity at quarterback for the future.  To fire Rodriguez will start this process over and we will find ourselves in this same quagmire after year two of the hypothetical new coach's tenure.  For a one year investment in Rodriguez, we could be spared at least another 2 years misery under a new guy.

However, if you believe that now is the correct time to fire Rodriguez, and bring in whatever pipe-dream coach you've got in your head, well, you're on your own then.  I disagree with you, and I can argue with you about it, but the facts are there right now for you to have a legitimate point.  Save for Notre Dame, we haven't beat a single team that we lost to last year.  Our conference record, if the prognostications are correct, stands to be worse than last year's.  The bare minimum of requirement for this season - let alone a season that started 4-0 - was a bowl game.  That is in jeopardy. 

So yes, emailers, and yes, people I talk to on the street who notice I have a Michigan hat on and just can't wait to talk to me about it, I am worried.  I am worried that a new AD and a potential NCAA investigation combined with another bowl-less season will spell the end of Rodriguez.  That, to repeat myself, would be a huge mistake, IMO, but there it is.  If you're one of the people who want to argue, or ask "what does he have to do to get you to change your mind" my answer is this:  I no longer think you are a moron (in a loving, sports-related-argument kind of way) for thinking Rodriguez should be fired, and you're on your own.  I will not, and cannot talk you down from your position, because frankly, your position is actually supported by what I see on the field.  Again, I'm willing to give it another year.  But I'm tired of arguing about it because at this point there is enough evidence; you might be right.

(Update: Road Games chips in)

Rank	Team
1	Texas
2	Alabama
3	Florida
4	Cincinnati
5	Oregon
6	Iowa
7	Boise State
8	TCU
9	LSU
10	Georgia Tech
11	Southern Cal
12	Penn State
13	Miami (Florida)
14	Pittsburgh
15	Utah
16	Houston
17	Ohio State
18	Oklahoma State
19	California
20	Wisconsin
21	South Florida
22	Arizona
23	Virginia Tech
24	Oklahoma
25	Notre Dame

There isn't much to tell here.  At the top we've got the log jam of Texas, Alabama, and Florida, and to be honest, I believe there is a compelling case for each team to hold the top spot.  Texas's win over a good Oklahoma State team propels them to first, I suppose, and the Alabama vs. Florida conundrum will solve itself assuming there is not a complete collapse on part of either.

The Cincinnati/Oregon/Iowa mashup that follows is,  IMO, in the correct order.  Oregon has one loss, but they just put the hammer down on USC, while Iowa struggled to beat IU.  I mean, really, Michigan beat IU.  The computers love Iowa because they don't watch the games.  Ask yourself - do you really believe that Iowa would have a chance against any of those top three teams?

The rest, at this point, is academic.  Let me know your thoughts, and we'll get a final ballot up on Wednesday.

More photos » by Carlos Osorio - AP

about 1 month ago: Michigan quarterback Tate Forcier (5) and center David Moosman (6) talk with head coach Rich Rodriguez after a safety during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Penn State in Ann Arbor, Mich., Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

Browse more photos »

These days, I'm finding myself rooting for teams who's downfall I should be enjoying. 

Remember when Miami was absolutely running shit? 

Alabama was a echo of a generation gone by? 

I find myself pulling for these teams; teams I once despised.  And why?  Because the last year of Michigan football has just changed shit, man.  If Alabama can ascend to the top of the polls again; if Miami can regain some of the vengeful hatred and pride that made them so fearsome in the beginning of the decade, then maybe Michigan can too. Hell, I even hate Notre Dame a little less. 

Today, I sat watching the game on my couch, and for the first time this season thought that I was watching last year's team.  It didn't matter if the defense scored a 3-and-out, because they were giving the ball right back to an offense that rated a 90-year-old-without-his-blue-pills on the potency scale.  There was simply no way the offense was going to do anything besides hand the ball right back to the defense.  I knew it from the couch, and Penn State certainly knew it on the field.  For the first time this season, we didn't have an answer.  There was no adjustment to be made.  

Instead, a wickedly young team took an ass beating by a much more talented Penn State team.  Oh sure, there were some things that I felt were self-inflicted out there, but make no mistake, Michigan was out-classed today.  Unfortunately, there isn't much that can be done about it except to allow for time to mature the players, get them stronger, and let them have another crack at it next year in Happy Valley.  I guess I'm just kind of tired of waiting.  

Perhaps most disappointing was the fact that Michigan had what amounted to two weeks to put in a game plan for Penn State.  Two weeks to prepare.  We got 45 minutes of Yakety-Sax and 15 minutes of Penn State prevent defense.  Brandon Graham motored his way through another brilliant performance.  Donovon Warren was great.  It's too bad that seemingly everyone else decided to collectively brain-fart their way through the game. 

I said right after the Delaware State game that we'd be good to get 1 win out of Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, but I also assumed that each game would be somewhat close.  I can live with losses, and you know, I can live with ass beatings as long as we're moving forward.  Today just seemed like a day that was stuck fully in reverse. 

Miami is on their way.  Alabama has arrived.  Michigan will eventually get there too.  I'm just exhausted by the journey.

Hey, do you guys remember when Penn State would start that "we are...Penn State..." chant that is amongst the lamest in all of sports (I mean really, are we confused as to who the opponent is?  Or do they have to remind themselves of who they represent?  We all get it - Penn State was on the calander for this date a year ago), and Michigan would start chanting "WE OWN...PENN STATE..."?  Yeah, that was a fun time, wasn't it?  It always seemed - even in years that Michigan wasn't very good, and Penn State was very good (I'm looking at you, 2005), we'd find a way to beat them.  Then it came crashing down.  Or maybe it was just one game last year.  Either way, a 3-9 season tends to distill some of the arrogance out of a fanbase, and to claim that Michigan owns anything besides the uniforms off their backs and maybe Minnesota is bordering on fan fiction.  Ah, the life of a Wolverines fan in 2009. 

On Offense

Penn State's defense is...well...it's really good, at least statistically.  As I mentioned (read: drooled over), Penn State has two all-world defensive tackles with names like Odrick and Ogbu.  While it sounds like an animated series for the Disney channel (don't mess with Phineus and Ferb, holmes), these two absolutely kill shit in the middle.  I expect tons of pressure coming right at Forcier.  Typically, this is the best way to disrupt a quarterback.  Pressure up the middle is the #1 reason for happy feet, interceptions, and other poorly thought out decisions.  However, with Tate being far more effective on the rollout than sitting comfortably in the pocket channeling Chad Henne, this pressure might not be a bad thing.  However, it appears that Penn State is going to walk a safety up to the line on all but the most obvious passing downs, and have one of their beastly linebackers spying Tate at all times.  If the pressure comes up the middle, Tate is going to have to keep his head about him, because against this defense, if he decides to take off an an ill-advised run, he's gonna get pasted.  The LB's are going to try to contain Tate to the pocket, and let the monster DT pass rush up the middle clean up.  On the plus side, the Defensive Ends for Penn State are definitely a notch below their NFL talent-types of last year.  I look for a lot of Tate Moxie++ type programming of roll outs, buying time, and probably an INT or fumble (or both!) as he tries to make a play and stay alive.  I expect plenty of screen-type-substances and play action to try to derail the pressure.

The good news is that, with all the worry of Tate escaping the pocket, I expect the run game to be fairly successful against what heretoforehas been a staunch run defense.  With the tackles crashing in, Minor should be able to find some cutback lanes like he did last year when MINOR RAGE was first introduced.  Additionally, as mentioned above, I expect that we will probably catch PSU in an all out pass rush at least once, and flip a screen to Brown or Odoms for a big gainer.  The outside receivers have, against all but MAC opponents, been rendered fairly incapacitated, and I imagine that Penn State will do the same.  If we can get Matthews or Hemingway or Stonum involved in the downfield passing game, it's because something isn't working defensively for Penn State.  If any of those receivers catch fire, Penn State will be in serious trouble.

Molk is back.  Yay for that.  Now, as Brian points out in Mgoblog's preview, he's gotta go get some reach blocks - fundamentally difficult against even mediocre tackles - on the two best tackles in the league.  Welcome back, kid.  I would not be surprised to see Mooseman moved back to Center for a drive or two should Molk's layoff prove costly conditioning-wise.

On Defense

What's to say?  SCM has detailed some of what Penn State is probably going to try to do to us.  I expect a heavy, heavy dose of Royster, and Darryl Clark to be his fairly dependable if not spectacular self.  Penn State's starting right tackle is out, and so is his backup, so Brandon Graham has a huge opportunity to really piss off Penn State fans.  Clark is dependable, but also dependable on throwing up Stanzi-balls when he's pressured.  Graham will see a ton of doubles, which should put Van Bergan and any miscellaneous blitzing LB in good situations.  Pressure on Clark will be the key defensively, and will mask any shortcomings in the secondary as our safeties continue to be...well...our safeties.

Meanwhile, Royster was slow to get going at the beginning of the season, but has really come on as of late.  I would love to play the "well, look at the defenses they've played!" card here, but uh, Michigan's run defense isn't exactly stellar either, although they are coming off two fairly impressive performances.  As much as I dislike thinking about it, I think Royster's going to have a day against us - somewhere in the neighborhood of 135+ yards.  This alone isn't enough to kill us, but we need NEED to avoid any Michigan State-esque 115 yard marches that eat 8 minutes of clock.  Royster's going to get his, we just need to make sure he's getting it in non-back-breaking ways.

Speacial Teams

On Zoltan, to victory.  Also, because Brian clearly isn't being emphatic enough (witness: Iowa) HOLD ON TO THE GODDAMN BALL.

Prediction Time

Penn State:  Really good defense; mediocre offense

Michigan:  Borderline-really good offense; mediocre defense

You know, if I'm going to roll into a game like this, I like our odds a lot better as such.  This offense, when it gets going, is capable of shredding anyone regardless of defensive acumen.  Meanwhile, the mediocre Penn State offense faces up against a mediocre Michigan defense, which is a true toss up.  Michigan, I believe, is going to score points.  What I don't know is if Penn State's offense is going to do the same.  As I've said before: if Penn State is settling for field goals, they will lose.

• Michigan busts 1 big play for 60+ yards and a TD
• Tate fumbles once in Michigan territory
• Clark kills at least two drives by throwing stupid passes under pressure
• Royster goes for 140ish yards
• Graham directly causes 3 sacks by making Clark roll into pressure, but doesn't get one himself
• Penn State wins 24-17 by virtue of Royster eating clock and actually scoring TD's
• I hope I'm wrong.  I'm confident UM will play well and have a chance to win, but not confident enough to predict it.

For all the world, it looks like Joe Paterno is going to go into the record books as the winningest coach in college football history.  With the regents, or trustees, or whatever they're calling themselves shamelessly advocating for a coaching change in Tallahassee, and the NCAA forcing Bowden to forfeit the wins attributed to his cheating history-of-music, art, bullshit, and other miscellanea felons (note: not a felony), Paterno's place at the top of the heap is all but assured. 

And why shouldn't it be? (BOOM ALBOM'D)

Joe Paterno took the reigns of Penn State in 1966, at which point I was one of those "future generations" we all seem so hellbent on preserving things for.  In 1969, he was offered both the Pittsburgh Steeler's AND the University of Michigan's head coaching jobs - both of which he turned down.  The Steelers hired Chuck Noll, and we hired Bo.  And there was much celebrating in Ann Arbor and Pittsburgh for years to come.  Paterno, meanwhile, continued to kick ass and take names at Penn State, running to two National Titles in the 80's, and three Big Ten titles since joining the conference in 1993. 

Joe Paterno, it should be noted, was good friends with Bear Bryant back when the houndstoothe cap was patrolling the sidelines in Tuscaloosa, smoking chesterfields, and drinking bourbon neat.  While their differing lifestyles (Bear lived his life like he stole it) have obviously contributed to their differing longevity's, there are many similarities that can be traced in each of their career paths.  Early dominance that involved giving a young man a 5-spot for a date if he played well, a tough as nails take no shit attitude, and a school that allowed it.  The difference is that Bear, when the NCAA decided that giving that young man a 5-spot is illegal, never adapted.  Instead he hung on, griping about the old ways, and eventually quit coaching.  This isn't to say that Bear Bryant was a quitter, or a cheater.  Rather, it is meant to point out the fact that even when compared to the coaches who are considered by history to be "the best" Joe Paterno matches up.  And he's still coaching.  When Bear Bryant finally did stop coaching, he died, and you wonder why JoePa hangs on so tenaciously.

But the reason JoePa has been able to hang on so long is his ability to adapt.  The game, at its core, has remained the same since 1966.  There is still tackling, still running, and still a certain type of young man that plays the game at a very high level.  It's the landscape that's changed.  The NFL, agents, mobile quarterbacks, the prevalence of minorities, scholarship reductions, title-9, BCS, the internet, youtube, message boards, I could go on, and on, and on.  And one by one, we've seen coaches of the "old guard" fall by the wayside, either too old, or too "old school" to continue being productive.  Yet, somehow, Joe Paterno has endured.

Continue reading this post »

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama	1
2	Florida	1
3	Texas
4	Cincinnati	2
5	Iowa	4
6	Southern Cal	2
7	Miami (Florida)	3
8	Penn State	3
9	Boise State	2
10	Oregon	4
11	TCU	1
12	Oklahoma State	1
13	Georgia Tech	9
14	LSU	6
15	Brigham Young	3
16	Virginia Tech	8
17	Houston	7
18	Pittsburgh
19	West Virginia
20	Utah	5
21	Kansas	5
22	Ohio State	17
23	South Carolina	4
24	Texas Tech
25	Michigan
Last week's ballot

First to the apologies section: last week sucked.  First, we were playing a less than exciting opponent, second I was traveling on the West Coast for work and often by the time I could get around to actually thinking about posting something, it was already midnight ET, third I am lazy.  This week will be much more interesting, I assure you.

Onward to the poll:  You'll notice a new #1.  After watching both Florida and Alabama this weekend, I came to the conclusion that Alabama is simply better.  I know they didn't look spectacular against South Carolina, but honestly the switch at the top is probably overdue anyways.  I blame it on Urban Meyer mind control and whiskey.  I may jump Texas above Florida if a convincing case is made.  Comment away.

Yes, that's Iowa you see at the 5 spot.  They remain undefeated, and therefore are rewarded thusly.  God help us if an undefeated Big Ten team in the form of Iowa is thrown into the mix come late November. 

Boise is ratcheted down a few pegs for a woeful performance against one of their tasty snacks.  They will be unable to recover from that.  If you're Boise, style points count because you've got exactly nobody on your schedule for the rest of the year - you'd better be hammering teams by 40 if you want some national attention.

Oh, hey there Oregon.  Nice to see you back.

Oh, and look, Georgia Tech too.

I am a bit worried about having Pittsburgh so high; same with West Virginia, but hey, one loss teams at this point in the season have to go somewhere. 

Kansas lost, I know, but they're still only a 1-loss Big 12 team.  I think that gets a nod over Ohio State and the rest below them, even if a 5-spot drop is a little light for a loss to Colorado.

Ohio State.  Yikes.  You still have Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan on the schedule right?  I'm not saying, I'm just....well....actually, yes I'm saying:  Ohio State - you're in trouble.

And oh - Michigan back in the poll really?  I'm a Michigan blogger.  This might be the first time in a while that the #25 ranking puts me in contention for the CK award, but hear me out:  Michigan has lost two games in a BCS conference.  Those two games were lost by a total of 8 points - one a road OT loss, the other a 2 point loss to the (now) number 5 team in the country on the road at night.  It's not like UM's the highest ranked 2-loss team on the board here, and in the "quality loss" column, they can compete with the best of them.  If they come out and beat Penn State this week, they'll be more firmly entrenched.  If they lose, well, they're probably out of the poll for good, so this week's Michigan placement is largely academic anyways.