SB Nation User Blog: BeefySwats

Post: Billups out for "a couple games" A.C. to start

BeefySwats — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:37:16 -0000

http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_14014190

I think A.C. is certainly not going to be able to replace what Chauncey gives us, but he'll be able to spell him until Karl puts Lawson in. The only thing I'm concerned about is how small this makes our backcourt. We're going to have to play Afflalo alongside Carter or Lawson whenever they're in or we are going to get destroyed.

Get better soon Chauncey, we need you.

The Importance of Kenyon Martin

BeefySwats — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:10:09 -0000

via thebasketballoracle.files.wordpress.com

The Nuggets are now 0-3 (losses to Miami, Charlotte and the Pistons) when Kenyon Martin is either injured as he was in the Miami game, or when he does not play.

Kenyon is averaging 10.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game, with a somewhat surprisingly low PER of 12.8. He also provides a big body in the rotation with an ability to finish around the basket and incredibly strong hands. When he gets a defender in the post with the ball anywhere where he can stick a paw on it, it's not going anywhere. There are very few players in the league who can successfully rip the ball away from Kenyon.

More importantly, Kenyon is the defensive leader of this Nuggets squad. It seems so long ago when the Denver media and coaching staff were referring to Kenyon as a locker room cancer, or when Karl benched him for insubordination in the Clippers playoff series loss. No other player plays with the same defensive intensity that Kenyon does night in and night out, and when he's out, there are clearly problems on the defensive end for the Nuggets.

More after the jump.

Let's take a look at the Nuggets last three opponents and the final scores of the games.

Miami Heat: Avg. PPG: 97.6 Final Score: 96-88 Heat
Charlotte Bobcats: Avg. PPG: 90.3 Final Score: 107-95, Bobcats
Detroit Pistons: Avg. PPG: 93.3 Final Score: 101-99 Pistons

The average PPG of these teams is a paltry 93.3. But when Kenyon is out, it jumps to an average of 101.3. That's EIGHT extra PPG, average, that the Nuggets give up to opponents when Kenyon is not playing or injured.

Witness the last two games for more indication of why Kenyon is so important. Carmelo scores 40, the Nuggets lose to the Pistons. Carmelo scores 34, the Nuggets lose to the Bobcats. Carmelo scores 14...the Nuggets win by 10 over Philly.

Scoring and expecting to ride Carmelo each night is not enough. Denver's defensive commitment is just not on the same level as when Kenyon is in the game. Not only that, but Denver is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, grabbing just 41 per game and scooping up only .485% of total boards. If you're not going to rebound the ball, you BETTER be able to make shooters miss or alter their shots. In the above three losses, the Nuggets were out-rebounded each time by an average of seven:

Miami Heat: 41-34, Miami
Charlotte Bobcats: 43-35, Charlotte
Detroit Pistons: 43-37, Pistons

Remember how many rebounds Kenyon averages per game? Seven.

That's seven additional opportunities for the Nuggets: a defensive board here, a chance at more points on the offensive end there - rebounding is critical to a teams offensive and defensive efficiency. You keep the other team from running the clock down an additional 24 seconds, chances at easy offensive points off the missed shot, and also provide opportunities to run the fast break.

via img.waffleimages.com

The top of the table says that with Martin on the court, they are 1.4 points/100 possessions better on offense than when he is not on the court. They are also 4.6 pts/100 possession better on defense with him on the court.

Another way to say this is that with Martin, they outscore opponents by 9.6 pts/100 possessions; without Martin they outscore opponents by 3.6 pts/100 possessions.

The nitty gritty stats show that the defensive improvement with Martin is due to shooting from the field (opponents shoot -2% when facing Martin), fouls (Nugs commit 21 per 48 minutes with Martin, but 24 without Martin), and turnovers (Nugs force 1 more TO/48 minutes with Martin). Defensive rebounding is about the same with or without Martin.

To me, it's easy to see the importance of Kenyon Martin. Gone are the times when I thought that Kenyon Martin would never really be able to live up to his contract to this team. It's clear to me that Kenyon's ability to plug the holes of the Nuggets' defensive weaknesses is vital to this team's success.

Without Kenyon, we are lost.

via blog.oregonlive.com

Recap: Minnesota Timberwolves 106, Denver Nuggets 100

BeefySwats — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 17:01:35 -0000

Andrew summed it up pretty well. This was an unacceptable loss. I'm going to post my individual thoughts and observations going mainly from memory and the box score, because there is no way in hell I'm going back and re-watching that...thing. I'm still barely able to keep the bile down.

- The first half felt like another yawner. Denver driving, dishing the ball, getting easy looks and dunks in the paint. Up 17 at one point, there was a definite feeling the Nuggets were going to run away with another game after dropping 40 in the first quarter.

- ...but then, the second unit was inserted to start the second. And looked flatter than a car tire after a snowstorm on I-25. Turnovers, lazy defense, and somehow they still preserve a 14 point lead into the half. I was still feeling good, however, a combination of post-Thanksgiving goodwill and malaise from all the turkey.

- Third quarter. 5-0 run. Ok, no big deal. Still up 9. 10-0 run. We're still up 4, Denver will find their stroke and re-bury the Wolves. 12-0 run. What is happening?!

- Midway through the third now and the Nuggets have yet to score 10 points. Did all the Nuggets succumb to tryptophan poisoning?

- The Nuggets are now down 5 to end the quarter after scoring a grand total of 12 points on off-balance jumpers. What did we all just watch?

- Fourth quarter. I remark to my family "there's no way the Nuggets lose this game". Apparently my predictive power leaves something to be desired.

- Kenyon cuts it to 4 with 3 minutes remaining. Doable? Absolutely. Am I seeing something - ANYTHING - that suggests that the Nuggets will? Absolutely not.

- Carmelo Anthony plays solid defense on Damien Wilkins for 23 seconds, then fouls him in the act of shooting to give the Timberwolves a 6 point lead with 28 seconds to play. Ballgame.

I don't know what was worse about this game. The fact that the Nuggets had several opportunities to pull this game out and didn't capitalize on them, or the fact that they let a 14 point halftime lead slip away. Of the numerous failures tonight, the complete lack of defensive intensity was most troubling. There is no reason that the Nuggets should have lost this game with a 14 point halftime lead and a full day's rest at home. Yes, it is true: streaks are meant to be broken and the Timberwolves were certainly long overdue, but on OUR floor, against THIS Nuggets squad?

No. I really started to get worried after Carmelo drained two threes, then took another one with 20 seconds left on the shot clock shortly thereafter. I understand that it was a heat check for one of our most potent offensive players, but the way it was taken reeked of hubris. I can imagine Melo thinking "We're up 10/12/14/17, we got this. I'm going to pad my scoring line with some easy jumpers." Hell, I can imagine ALL the Nuggets thinking that judging by the effort I saw last night.

Player notes:

- As mad as Karl wants to be at the obvious lack of effort from the team as a whole, some of this loss has to lie with him. He too got sucked into the Nuggets free flow in the first half and did not recognize the second unit's struggle until momentum had completely swung in the opposite direction. Carmelo should have been inserted far earlier in the game than he was.

- Chauncey was a PUTRID 2-13 with FOUR turns and only three assists. His worst performance of the season and truly a troubling one, given the ease with which Johnny Flynn ran him out of the building (7-17 6 assists, 16 points). It is time to seriously evaluate how Denver approaches the defense of quick guards in the future, because it is obvious to me that the step that Chauncey has had for so long has quietly disappeared.

- Carmelo scored 32, but at the absolute cost of his defense. He lazed under screens, barely boxed out, and did not close out on jump shooters. Melo's offense may be firing on all cylinders right now, but his defense is sputtering to say the least.

- Not sure why Kenyon martin took twelve shots this game and Nene only took 8. What's up with that? 16/14 is a damn good effort though. Good work, Kenyon.

- Same with Nene. 10/10/5/3/3 and ZERO turnovers is an excellent line.

- A bad as the starters were, the entire second unit was just horrific. A grand total of 8 made FGs and 19 points. As bad as that was, we STILL outscored the Timberwolves bench. JR was 3-11 and 0-4 from three in one of his worst outings.

Golden State on Tuesday. Our house. We better run them out of the building. That is all.

Arron Afflalo is an ELITE defender

BeefySwats — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:50:34 -0000

Consider the recent evidence:

11/13/2009 - Kobe Bryant - 7/17, 4 turnovers, 19 points. ZERO points in the second half.

11/17/2009 - Belinelli/Weems - 11/25, 3 turnovers, 28 points combined, +/- of -19.

11/21/2009 - John Salmons - 2/11, 1 turnover, 5 points in 28 minutes of play.

11/24/2009 - Chris Douglas-Roberts - 1/6, 3 turnovers, 5 fouls, 4 points in 30m of play. Had averaged 27.3 in the previous 3 games.

Afflalo also had 15 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and a steal and block last night in the second rout of the Nets.

Afflalo has the length and the tenacity to bother ANY player and he hustles as hard as (if not harder) than Renaldo Balkman. He fights over every screen, bulls through every pick, constantly hangs around the offensive basket, works to create his own shot and runs the break.

What more could you ask from your starting SG? He knows he isn't a primary scoring option and is okay with that. His stellar defense is amazing, and really a primary reason (in my opinion) why the Nuggets have been able to look so dominant in the first part of this season. Put him on the other team's best SG/SF and he will just lock them down.

Say it with me now: Dahntay WHO?

NBA Power Rankings, 11/17/2009

BeefySwats — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:52:52 -0000

The Denver Nuggets now occupy the number two (2) spot in the ESPN Power Rankings, second only to the surprising Atlanta Hawks.

Thoughts? Observations?

Personally, I think the Nuggets are ranked a little too high. I would rank us fourth or fifth in the league until we have some more solid wins against contenders NOT on the second night of a back to back. I understand that every team runs into buzzsaws like that and the winners play through it, but I really would like to see Denver's front line compete against one like the Magic's or Boston's and come away with a W before I am ready to tell them they're a number 2.

Everything else seems pretty gravy.

Tonight's Game.

BeefySwats — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:25:59 -0000

We all know that right now the Nuggets are struggling. Since starting 5-0, they've gone just 1-3, with bad losses to Miami, Atlanta, and Milwaukee, and came within a fingertip's length of being 0-4.

But right now, the Nuggets ARE 6-3. We are third in the West, and it's pretty apparent to anyone who's been watching the Nuggets that we are playing very poorly right now, primarily due to tired legs from the longest road trip of the season. Not to mention that on that road trip, we had three separate back to back games. We have played and will play more back to backs than any other team in the league this season. Because of this grueling start, the Nuggets have had to make adjustments on the fly, and have relied too much upon Carmelo to carry the team's scoring load. With the return of J.R., I expect that to change, but not until the 2nd quarter of the season.

To be completely frank, I do not expect the Nuggets to win tonight, even versus a "tired" Lakers team that handily steamrolled the Suns last night. I would be thrilled with the Nuggets if they come within 10 of the Lakers tonight.

In fact, I'm almost hoping that the Nuggets lose a close game to the Lakers tonight. Why? Because I feel that just like those early, bad losses last year and being counted out, the Nuggets play their absolute finest when they are NOT frontrunners. The Nuggets seem to thrive on adversity and are at their scrappiest when they feel they have their backs to the wall. I am very happy with the bright spots that are Ty Lawson and Aaron Afflalo.

Take heart, Nuggets nation. The Lakers are coming to our house tonight and we ARE going to make them work, especially with the rest of the known basketball universe behind us. But do not assign more importance to this game than there actually is. This game is 1.2% of the season. Panicking and calling for the firing or trading of the components of this team that took them to the WCF last year is not the way our fans should conduct themselves nor what the Nuggets should do. So quit it.

With that said, since our hidden threat to the Lakers is gone in L.K., who do you see stepping up this game for the Nuggets? Your choices below:

Poll

Who is going to step up for the Nuggets tonight, besides Carmelo Anthony?

Aaron Afflalo

5 votes

J.R. "Earl" Smith

20 votes

Renaldo Balkman

1 votes

Ty Lawson

18 votes

Nene

3 votes

Chauncey Billups

3 votes

50 votes | Poll has closed

4 Games in, Interesting Nuggets stats:

BeefySwats — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:03:46 -0000

Positives

- 2nd, PPG

- 1st, FTA

- 1st, PPS (points per shot)

- 6th, Adj. FG%

- 2nd, TO/G (12.8)

- 9th, APG

- 1st, A/TO

- 1st, Off. RTG (117.9)

Negatives

- 16th, Total RPG

- 14th, SPG

- 13th, BPG

- 17th, Def. RTG (107.5)

***

Obviously, this is small sample size theater, but I'd say the Nuggets have a lot of positives to look at through these first few games. We really need to tighten up on the defense, the rebounding in particular disturbs me. It suggests that against teams with a strong interior game (Lakers, Magic, Celtics) we're going to get murdalated.

Offensive statistics are great. 1st in assists per turnover, 1st in points per shot, 1st in offensive rating? I'll take that any day.

Can we ease up on George Karl a bit?

BeefySwats — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 21:17:15 -0000

Listen.

Lately all I'm hearing from Nuggets nation is "Fire George Karl" this and "What the hell is Karl thinking" that. Karl no doubt has made questionable decisions in the past, and we've all seen his propensity to move more slowly with his decisions. So have many, many other NBA coaches.

Consider the facts:

- George Karl led the Nuggets to tie the franchise record high in wins last year at 54-28.

- Karl is the 12th all-time winningest coach in the NBA, with 933 wins.

- Under Karl and with Carmelo, the Nuggets have made the playoffs every year. They lost in the first round 5 years in a row, and finally broke through last year with a trip to the conference finals.

- With Chauncey joining the team, Karl's focus has been able to shift more to actual team management rather than being the team's leader. Carmelo is not a natural leader, and Chauncey has been instrumental in getting the team to tighten down and focus.

The results?

Last year, with a roster that most expected to do no better than eighth in the murderously tough Western Conference, the 2008-2009 Denver Nuggets were, per game:

* 1st in free throw attempts

* 2nd in free throws made

* 2nd in blocks

* 3rd in steals

* 5th in efficiency

Nene and Kenyon Martin were both near their career highs for games played. Andersen provided a huge defensive boost as a virtual Camby replacement. The team was, and is, a cohesive unit.

Sure, you can point to Chauncey's arrival as some miracle panacea that finally catalyzed the team into the contenders we'd hoped they'd be since Melo's drafting, but you cannot deny that Karl has played an instrumental role in turning this team from a perennial loser into a perennial playoff team.

I'm willing to give him a chance and see what he can do this season with the acquisition of Allen, Afflalo, Graham, and Lawson.

You should do the same.

Can you feel it...?

BeefySwats — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 15:32:39 -0000

Here we go, Nuggets fans.

Just 9 days away from the season opener. As far as the Nuggets went last year, I still think they have higher yet to go. I'm incredibly excited about this season and the additions that the Nuggets have made to the roster. I do not honestly believe that the Nuggets will be able to win another 55 games this season, but I do believe that they will win around 52 or so and challenge the Blazers for the division.

I'm going to the preseason game vs. the Twolves on Tuesday night and I couldn't be more ecstatic. I will get to (hopefully) see Lawson, Graham, White...sometimes preseason games are the best games for getting to see that first spark in a player, something that propels him to the next level.

It also means that I'll probably get to watch Kevin Love devour 3 pounds of nachos with cheese while sitting on the bench with his broken hand.

Remember, preseason games are just that - pre-season. The Broncos looked terrible in the preseason, and yet here they are at 5-0. The Nuggets have struggled some this preseason, but I do not think that that is any indication of the way they are going to be playing this year. I do think J.R.'s absence is going to hurt though, and I would be happy if we went 3-4 to start the first 7 games, TBQH.

Anyway...after a long summer of baseball and watching Rocktober fizzle out, I'm anticipating my Nuggets like none other. I hope you all are as well.

It's good to be back on Denver Stiffs/Pickaxe and Roll. :)

Rules Clarification?

BeefySwats — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 23:18:23 -0000

This has come up as a point of dispute between a playing buddy of mine:

He asserts that as a defender, I cannot have my forearm in his low back when he has his back to the basket. He asserts that that technique can "only be used to maintain a defensive position", the definition of which he says is only maintaining my position between himself and the basket, if he is not dribbling or moving.

The way I always have heard it is that if the offensive player is in the post below the free throw line, I may have one forearm in their low back to check them. I think that I can use my forearm if he's below the FT line to keep him checked.

He ALSO says that when in the post, with me as the offensive player, I cannot shift my hips backward into him to move towards the basket while I have my back to it, as that is an "offensive foul like charging". I completely disagree, you see post players in the NBA all the time dribble with their back to the basket and using their weight to move the defense around.

Who's right?