SB Nation User Blog: Bellanca

Sixty-Minute Men Abuse Media Expectation Once More; SadBadgers Cry, "No Fair!"

Bellanca — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 18:16:47 -0000

MADISON, WISC. -- October 17, 2009. With cries of "No Fair!" and "Meanies!" echoing throughout the Wisconsin Badger clubhouse, and ill-considered reporters, bloggers and cardboard sign-bearing homeless men asserting phony Vietnam War injuries expressing unanimous disapproval, Iowa slowly asphyxiated, prior to pummeling mercilessly, their latest opponent today, 20-10. The football world, collectively, is up in arms.

First, our soundtrack:

Sixty Minute Men

Now, the backstory:

Lacking glossy media hero-material, such as Tate "Baby Jesus (P.S. My Hands Are Really Cold)" Forcier,

Jimmah "Speedo" Clausen,

and Tim "Ewwww, Not Until We're Married" Tebow,

protests rose to a crescendo pitch with SadBadger offensive tackle Gabe Carimi disclosing that he was going straight home to complain to his mother. "These guys don't play fair," said Carimi. "Everybody could see we were way better than them, in that first quarter, and it was OUR yard and we were using OUR balls and they just acted like they didn't EVEN CARE. By the end of the game, they hardly let us do anything and were running around like they OWNED THE PLACE.*

"They have basically one look," Carimi added. "It's the same thing. They play hard-nosed football, and you need to capitalize off people like that.** But did we? Nah. I want a cookie. MOM!"***

Iowa, which has never won the first 8 games of any football season, and now owns an 11-game winning streak, while yielding only 3 redzone touchdowns all season, fumbled yesterday, its first fumble since September 12, and its first lost fumble since September 5, in the cliffhanger against fellow midwestern bullies Northern Iowa. But it was not enough for local and nationally accredited official credentialed sports pundits, who increasingly demand that 7-0 Iowa be as much fun to watch on television as 5-2 Michigan, which reached deep into its scout team Saturday to pull out a 63-6 squeaker against FCS, 3700-student Delaware State. [Delaware State is a so-called Historically Black College, which means they have NO MONEY WHATSOEVER, are a vestige of the Jim Crow Era; therefore, this is why it makes perfect sense for the most successful, wealthiest football program in the ENTIRE COUNTRY and FOR ALL TIME JUST ASK THEM to schedule them. (Go Blue.)] Iowa is generally regarded to have the most difficult conference road schedule in the country.

"Ridiculous," said Gannett legend Pat Harty, renowned for burning shoe leather and the midnight oil in the service of sport and insight, and going to any length -- including driving ALL THE WAY across Iowa City the afternoon of a nationally televised football game, which everyone knows he could have watched from the sofa at home, and probably understood better, because, you know, you get to listen to the announcers at home, before writing about it -- to get his story. "These guys just don't play well with other people, and they don't do any of the things everyone knows you have to do to get on SportsCenter and attract nice comments from Lou Holtz. Say, are you going to finish that croissant?"****

"Nonsense," said [name redacted], a certain Michigan man known for, mmmm, going blogging (when not genuflecting), from time to time. "These guys confuse charity -- everyone's just giving them these games, it's not like they're actually beating anyone -- with talent. No way should a team as selfish and outright colorless as Iowa get any expectations they're making it to the big stage. I have it on good authority that Iowa's gonna have to go multiple on defense, recruit a self-centered 4-star hype machine, and run the Wildcat before any of us consider them media-worthy."

Meanwhile, Wisconsin Coach Bret Bielema, pulling on his OVER-THE-CALF socks, denied reports that Wisconsin was petitioning the league to invalidate the results of this soul-crushing lost, punctuated by irate Wisconsin students heckling Bielema as he exited the field.

"Sure, would I like to?" said Bielema. "Sure I would. I see no reason why our performance in the first quarter was insufficient (you know, r es ipsa loquitur or something like that, you know, like, duh, thing speaks for itself, which is fortunate because if you read my interviews you'll want to sit down immediately with a glass of medicine, it's a concept in tort liability that some guy is using to explain why I didn't lose to Iowa, I let Iowa win, see, we embarrassed ourselves, we didn't, like, duh, shit, uh, you know, actually lose) to nail these guys. Somehow they got the idea these games are played for 60 minutes, and they have the right to outcoach, outplay, and outhustle us for more than a quarter on our own field. What kind of crap is that? I just know I'm gonna go home and kick the shit out of my dog and the TiVo, there it'll be, Griese making fun of Iowa, just like always. Is he wrong, Griese? The game should have been over at that point. Enough's enough. We killed them in the first quarter."

Gene Collier, commenting from Pittsburg and his perch at the Pittsburg Post-Gazette, "... there is not one impressive team in the Big Ten, even when considering all 11. That's clear, right? ... Had Penn State beaten Iowa three weeks ago instead of blowing a 10-point lead with three interceptions and a blocked punt, the Lions would be the league's prime suspect on the allegation of being verifiable decent, but the Lions don't beat Iowa as a matter of policy."*****

Collier went on to say (no he didn't), "You see, with Iowa, it's all a big "what-if"? "What-if" every single good team Iowa plays, home and away, didn't embarrass themselves and just hand Iowa the ball, collapse their own quarterbacks, fail to show up, etc. It's not like Iowa wins these games; if they were actually winning them, they'd be on SportsCenter and Holtz would show some respect. I had hopes for Michigan, but, there you go, Michigan just gives the game away. Like they all do. Somebody should make Iowa win one of these games. It's embarrassing. It's like watching somebody's kid in the school play, you can't get away from it fast enough."

Caught sharing a wry smile, hug and word with his son James, who is so deeply buried in the depth chart (as punishment for a couple of teenage run-ins with the law) that he doesn't even get to play the wedge on kickoff returns, Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz said,

"Eh. First off, I'd like to thank our fans ... oh, away game. Sorry. So, don't do pronouns, pronouns, kinda tough deal. Verbs -- not always. Never know. So, 60 minute game, least I think it is. Coaches, some of them with all of their toes. Effort. Stud at QB, 15-3, last I checked, better than Pryor, eh? QB, 168 rating for the game, 215 for the second half. Theirs: 84. That's about right for us. Paying attention? No swimsuit calendars on my team, doesn't work in our state.

"Time of possession: 9, 8, 5, 4. That's what we did to them. Sucked the life out of the room, burned all the oxygen up, watched them choke, waved bye-bye. Drowning men in red. Six yards, seven carries: Clay, second half. Great back, very solid back. Was gonna come to Iowa, wanted him. Wanted him, sure did, big time. Changed his mind. Frustrating. Not as frustrating as trying to post on Morehouse's blog, but still, Clay: got hit by Angry. Done. No fun getting hit by Angry. Destroyed his spirit. Like I said, could have come here, probably have started for us today. Didn't want to. Hit by Angry? Did I mention that? Yeah, he plays for them, Angry hit him.

"Our freshman RBs -- no lost fumbles since first game. I know this -- anyone else? Any, uh, whatever, pundits? Want the ball. Good spirit.

"So, now, blitzes. Blitzed once. Didn't need to. Got Clayborn and Klug. Binns. Ballard. Don't blitz. Blitz? Not so many interceptions. Got 22 takeaways, fumbles, picks, those deals. Big number. They don't throw over the middle now, well, we got guys outside the hash, they catch too. Same deal. That kinda deal, you know. We're gonna take the ball away.

"Leapin' Tongan: can't defend him, more pure talent than Clark. DJK: great bespoke peaked lapel Lara Piana double breasted action, Paul Stuart. Don't know what any of that is, but benches 400. Know what that is, our wideouts benching more than Clay.

"Lets see what else. Red zone TDs this year, what? Three, I think. I don't know. George Wine will know. Hi, George. We gave up three, four, something like that. Have to use my toes to count. Got to stay below 9. At nine, Norm has to do something I don't want to see, double check my counting. Don't care if Carimi's upset because he lost, if we got one look on D, that's simple right?, they know what we're going to do. They couldn't handle it, their QB's in tears, game over. Every QB is in tears this year. We coach for W's, not TV.

"Kinda like this," Ferentz said, gum popping. "Don't bother even showing up if you think you can't hit for sixty minutes. And lay off Stanzi, because everyone in this league who was supposed to be better -- Pryor, Juice, Kafka, Clark, Weber -- last I checked, they've got their butts shot off more than once, they're in the ditch. Got the best QB in the conference. He has a beard, terrible haircut. No swimsuit issue guy, Stanzi. In our state, that's how we're going to play it."

"Hey Norm, look at this," said Ferentz, waving a stat sheet, shouting over the din as Parker returned from the shower, everyone confused because they don't want to look at his feet exactly, what with the 8 toes and stumps and stuff, but jesus you can't look higher either, there's now a room full of dudes staring at the ceiling. "58, 31, 3, minus-5. Run totals by quarter. They sure gave us the game, they're embarrassed, why did we win, we sure lucked out, god we suck, are we flukes, why Alabama would kill us, right?"

"We won because we kicked the shit out of them," Parker said, scratching himself. "And because we got better coaches and athletes who listen. It makes for bad TV but oh well. And we're faster than anyone thinks. I'm just glad I don't play quarterback against this outfit. It would make my head hurt. We beat that guy from Alabama, he still have a job?"

No word on whether, for the good of the league, Iowa would shortly be required to go spread and blitz-heavy, and hire personal media representatives for Rick Stanzi, Pat Angerer, and the Leapin' Tongan. (DJK was granted a league media representative waiver, having demonstrated that he is with the program, and capable of full-on counter-questioning irony.)

###

*This quotation is fabricated -- it's totally made up!

**Carimi actually said this yesterday.

***Not really fair, but he could have said it.

****Well, made up too, but it stands to reason, right? Prove he didn't say it.

****True. That's what he actually got paid to write.

Portfolio Theory, Chekhov, and Misplaced Iowa Modesty.

Bellanca — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 11:17:00 -0000

Iowa and the Slow Reveal.

As OPS says at left, the stats all favor Wisconsin, and even some of the trends. If I were a betting guy, I guess I'd have to take the men in red: yes, logic suggests that we are a 6-0 underdog. But that's a portfolio theory approach to picking winners: if you bet 100 games a year, don't go looking for immaterial freaky insights and oddball quirks, and just invest in the facts, take your random walk, assume everyone regresses to the mean, and try to win 3 out of 5. It's a rational way to make money. Fortunately, I don't bet, so ...

Reasons to be cheerful?

Two semi-intangible things that matter: a) their head coach is the bloviated Bret Bielema -- and ours isn't; b) their confidence can't be too good after that fiasco last week.

More important reasons to be cheerful?

This (the second season) is when the vaunted Iowa 'get better every day' ethic starts to kick in and create separation with the league. We all know that Iowa has played well enough -- usually 2-3 quarters -- at times this year to beat anyone in the conference, with the possible exception of OSU. And I would not take Wisconsin over Penn State. Would you? Why did we go into PSU with more confidence than we are to Madison, then?

Well, because we've put together exactly one game this year with four strong quarters. I believe we won that one 35-3 on the road, and I do think ISU has a real coach and a real program again. They're not getting punked by people like Kansas and could easily be 2-0 in the Big 12, 5-1 overall. I don't think this is fanciful. Rhoads is the real deal.

Can Iowa play four quarters of good football? I think we're a 9-3 team, which is fine with me, if we can't. In years past, however, e.g., last year, we incrementally, gradually put it all together. Do we start today? I don't think the general unease in this game is so much about some inherent competitive weakness that we suffer v. Wisconsin, and rather about our mystifying capacity for the Big Screw-up and introducing into several games the Quarter (or even the Half) Without a Pulse.

And we can't forget that our coach just delivers a better game against better opponents. Why, I have no clue, but I hate playing teams like Northwestern, Arkansas State, Purdue, with this staff.

So it's all about intangibles, to me. We should be better prepared than they, and I really don't care about their run-D because Stanzi is capable of being 10x the passing QB that Pryor is. Obviously they'll force us wide and vertical just to find out if Ricky is feeling charitable today. I just don't think you can say Iowa has to run to win, because I don't think we're really a run-first team; we're a run-first team if someone wants to play us honest on D, but no one is and no one will, until Ricky plays his A game for four quarters. No one dares us to run; they dare us to throw, because they don't think they can beat us with only 7 up front.

I will get on the bandwagon (so will the entire country, incidentally) if we beat this team and, absent charity by Manzi, major cognitive dissonance by the Idiot Savant, or Tolzein playing the best game of his life, I believe we will.

Let's not be too Iowan about all this and shuffle our feet and look at the sky and rue the gods that will probably bring rain before the corn is drying in the bins before the bank calls the note and our women take the Greyhound to Chicago; let's not overlook the extraordinary. Last week we undressed Baby Jesus Forcier, and his coach, one of the primary offensive innovators of the game's last 30 years, blew every gasket and fuse in his monomaniacal brain; we were doing something right because he just flat lost control of himself. Michigan ran the ball pretty well, but their longest run was 12 yards, and I bet they do better than that against Ohio State. So in each significant game this year we have done something extraordinary. This is a game where I don't see truth in numbers. Clayborn's block and score against PSU; Moeaki just gliding into the end zone twice, a man among boys; freshman backs who don't fumble; Reiff beating out Vandervelde; DJK on 3rd and 24; our pass defense efficiency; Tarp's Sanders-like hit. Greatness is in this team. The only question is if we can show greatness for 60 minutes. We don't know. This is the season's narrative. True greatness is systematic, not anecdotal. This is Ferentz and the Slow Reveal and this is why we stare and obsess. We showed the shotgun on the wall, attentive theatre-goers; not to get all Chekhovian on you, but it was there on the wall, for a reason, back in the first act. We've enjoyed intermission, there was a little dust-up, nothing serious, last week: just a little foreshadowing. There, now, we're back in the drawing room and I see that shotgun again, still unremarked. It's there on the wall for a reason. It's time now for the fucker to go off. Go Hawks.

Mumme Poll Position

Bellanca — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 00:27:12 -0000

Mumme Poll Position

Hawks at #6.

I don't know, it seems a little high. But I'm from Iowa. My DNA says "Be modest. Expect bad things to happen."

Genius, personified.

Bellanca — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 17:55:09 -0000

This is what you get when undocumented athletic aliens evaluate complex systems -- like football.

Not having lost control of himself on national television, not having humiliated and benched the future of his program out of spite when a game was available to win (on the road), and not having put 9 guys in the box against his opponent's offense and simply awarding points whenever the opponent chose to throw, Kirk Ferentz is faintly ridiculed for being under consideration in 2007 for UM football coach.

-Overall Attractiveness: Ferentz would not be a disaster of a hire, but he would be a disappointing one. He's no more moral than dozens of coaches across the country. He'sincreasingly incapable of keeping the kids he recruits under control. He lost to Iowa State and Western Michigan this year. He represents the closest thing to an extension of the Carr era available out there, something which may be attractive to Sailboat Bill Martin but is an anathema to anyone who actually remembers the Appalachian State game earlier this year.

The opportunity represented by the Carr retirement is to take the program in a different direction. Michigan has stagnated, allowing Ohio State to pass it both off the field and on. Ohio State has better facilities, has won six of seven against Michigan, and has fewer disciplinary problems. The Horror was supposed to be a wakeup call inside the department and amongst the heavy movers; Ferentz represents the snooze button, especially if his hiring is contingent upon retaining certain key assistants who have done nothing to suggest they are capable of coaching out of a wet paper bag.

As an insanely expensive backup plan, Ferentz is fine. The program is unlikely to fall apart under his watch. At Michigan he'll have the talent and depth to beat Western; he won't put up with Michigan's stone age strength and conditioning program, and he's likely to have a level of success comparable to Carr over the long haul. And that's not bad.

As a primary option, Ferentz is indicative of a diseased thought process that hasn't watched the past three years. Lloyd Carr was a very good coach, but the emphasis is onwas. It's over. "Eff you, try to stop us, oops you did let's punt" is over. Ohio State has raised. Picking Ferentz is, essentially, folding.

Better than Debord? YES YES A THOUSAND TIMES YESFerentz was thus evaluated.

"Overall Attractiveness: Ferentz would not be a disaster of a hire, but he would be a disappointing one. He's no more moral than dozens of coaches across the country. He's increasingly incapable of keeping the kids he recruits under control. He lost to Iowa State and Western Michigan this year. He represents the closest thing to an extension of the Carr era available out there, something which may be attractive to Sailboat Bill Martin but is an anathema to anyone who actually remembers the Appalachian State game earlier this year.

"The opportunity represented by the Carr retirement is to take the program in a different direction. Michigan has stagnated, allowing Ohio State to pass it both off the field and on. Ohio State has better facilities, has won six of seven against Michigan, and has fewer disciplinary problems. The Horror was supposed to be a wakeup call inside the department and amongst the heavy movers; Ferentz represents the snooze button, especially if his hiring is contingent upon retaining certain key assistants who have done nothing to suggest they are capable of coaching out of a wet paper bag.

"As an insanely expensive backup plan, Ferentz is fine. The program is unlikely to fall apart under his watch. At Michigan he'll have the talent and depth to beat Western; he won't put up with Michigan's stone age strength and conditioning program, and he's likely to have a level of success comparable to Carr over the long haul. And that's not bad.

"As a primary option, Ferentz is indicative of a diseased thought process that hasn't watched the past three years. Lloyd Carr was a very good coach, but the emphasis is onwas. It's over. "Eff you, try to stop us, oops you did let's punt" is over. Ohio State has raised. Picking Ferentz is, essentially, folding.

Better than Debord? YES YES A THOUSAND TIMES YES."

Profiles in Courage: http://mgoblog.com/content/profiles-heroism-kirk-ferentz

Indications.

Bellanca — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 12:51:05 -0000

a. Michigan didn't get a rush play for more than 12 yards. To me this is the key to the game. It certainly was my biggest concern, their capacity to break big ones. This is the only game this year, I predict, where Michigan's longest play goes for 12.

b. Forcier's line. He is the fourth QB to be humiliated by the Iowa defense, third to be benched (and Clark should've been benched). Someone else will calculate his in-game pass efficiency, but I'm sure it's in the 50-range. Happily for us, his coach then piled on with a televised meltdown and with luck QBForce-Nobel-Peace-Prize-Mother-Theresa-Tate is permanently twisted now in the head. Rodriquez lost control of himself in this game, and it was good to see.

c. Stanzi seems to drink from the idiot savant's cognitive dissonance cup all right. And it is scary bad when he sees someone the other 70,000 people watching don't see -- and then initiates a conversation with him and attempts to play nice and share his football, before the meds kick in. Still and all, our QB play for the season is better than the collective opposing QBs' play.

d. We all thought last year's 32 turnovers was an irreproducible quirk. However, we are >20% ahead of that pace.

e. We should remember that there probably isn't a team in the Big Ten that doesn't think it can beat Iowa. We just got 5 takeaways but yielded 28 points and won by 2. And we returned to clock management hell, while descending to a new circle -- pushing a 48 yard field goal to 53.

Smart Football on End-Game Decision Science

Bellanca — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 21:59:39 -0000

Smart Football on End-Game Decision Science

Bellanca discussion of the difference between propensity modeling and stochastic optimization in the comments section.

Red Zone Efficiency is a Dumb Statistic.

Bellanca — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 11:01:19 -0000

Notes on numbers after grazing the NCAA summary statistics:

The NCAA's Red Zone Efficiency is a dumb metric, because as configured it doesn't weight field goals vs. TDs. You could give up field goals, exclusively, and keep your opponents out of the red zone at twice the rate of a mediocre team, and rank lower than the mediocre.

In this way Iowa and Ohio State are ranked 111th in red zone efficiency, and Iowa State is ranked 15th. But Iowa has allowed 7 red zone penetrations and only 29 red zone points; OSU 5 penetrations and 32 points; ISU 15 penetrations and 66 points. This stat needs to be sorted to reflect frequency and weighted by outcome (field goal vs. TD).

Oddly, the NCAA's Scoring Defense includes points scored against a team's offense. Iowa goes from 8th to 5th in the country in scoring defense if you count, you know, points scored against the defense? (Iowa goes to 9.9 ppg and bumps ahead of USC.) This adjustment is incomplete because I don't know how many points were scored against other teams' offense. I suppose too one should control for special teams. Net: well, either bust a big play against Iowa or try to kick a field goal. Of course, in the latter case, we might block it a few times.

T.M.F. Sash is second in the country in INTs but first in the country in INT return yardage. Which explains why Prater did that weird, I-want-to-be-Tyler-I-must-go-all-the-way backward ramble on his pick Saturday night: peer pressure.

Iowa is 3rd in team INTs. Interestingly, Iowa appears to be first in opposing QB passing percentage at 45% (the NCAA doesn't do this sort, but I scanned the top 100), and this includes the excellent Pat Grace's results.

Iowa is therefore 6th in Team Passing Defense Efficiency, and god knows what we would be if we excepted the excellent Pat Grace (because we all know it's not fair to compare Pat Grace to Daryll Clark, inasmuch as the Miami Dolphins wish they had Pat Grace right now, and Penn State wishes their quarterback would just grow a pair, for starters).

What's different about this team than any Parker defense I can remember is the following, and I think this is the story so far: we are only average in total rushing defense, while being superior in virtually all pass defense metrics. Think about it. In the past the good D's have been crushing against the run, and average against the pass. But even this is not the whole story. We have been crushing against the marquee backs, the excellent Carlos Anderson excepted, and destroyed their ability to influence the game (Robinson, Grigsby, Royster), . The 29 quarters-no-TD stat has been beaten to death by now, though completely ignored by national media, and I don't know how you put a team on national TV and forget to mention that one of the teams has decided to make rushing TDs illegal, but I guess there's a reason it's called the idiot box; anyway, there seems to have been a strategic decision to worry primarily about the difference-makers on the ground, less about overall rushing effectiveness. Iowa is giving up 4.2 ypc, but UNI is the only team to get anything done on the ground, and use the ground game, to produce a football contest.

***

Don't look now, but Rhodes has Iowa State looking better, statistically, than they have in a long time. A-Rob is at 5.7 ypc, their defense and punting are doing okay, and ... maybe he's got something going there. I listened to him on the radio last week and I have to say, he seems like a good guy who, as Bill Snyder said in his list of ten things every coach should follow, is "being where he is". (One of Snyder maxims is "Be where you are.") I think Rhodes likes where he is, which is good, because now they can lose their next 9, please.

Breaking: tUNI Swaps October 10 Dates with tEIU, Brags on 240 lb. Spread QB Grace.

Bellanca — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 23:16:34 -0000

[Bumped. Classic Bellanca. --OPS]

CEDAR FALLS, IA -- Sept. 28, 2009 -- The athletic world reacted with wonder, ill-disguised glee, and mild horror today at the late-night decision by the presidents of tUNI (the University of Northern Iowa) and tEIU (the Eastern Illinois University) to swap dates on October 10, 2009. Quel surprise: apparently it was all to do with money.

tUNI, scheduled to play North Dakota State on October 10, will switch partners under this arrangement with tEIU, booked into State College, PA, to play the recently disrobed Lions.

Coach Mark Farley was isolated en route to his Chevy half-ton at 11:30 p.m. last night, making notes to his iPhone, the substance of which we didn't catch but sounded like, " ... seven seconds? seven seconds? We let them score with seven seconds left in the game and blow the shutout?" He was a little wound up. tUNI has allowed a total of 14 points in three games (0, if you do the statistically cool thing of throwing out the high and the low) after losing on an NCAA-record two consecutive blocked field goals against Iowa. And half of the 14 came with seven seconds left against former tUNI head coach Terry Allen with seven seconds left.

"Sorry. Didn't mean to be outspoken. But Terry left, gonna be a big shot at Kansas, now he's going to get it. He shouldn't have gotten that touchdown with seven seconds left. What was your question?"

"Swapping opponents. Why in the world would you want to swap with tEIU, and get Penn State instead of North Dakota State?"

"Who told you we did that?"

"Uh, Coach, it's on the state-sponsored AP wire."

"I see."

"You're quiet."

"I'm always quiet before I speak to the press. I don't have a lot of experience at that, actually. I live in Cedar Falls. I get up early, try to do a good job, go home, repeat cycle. No press in doing a good job. In this country, that is. Sorry, being philosophical. I didn't get an interview for the ISU job, and I woulda kicked their ass this year."

"Swapping Oct. 10 dates?"

[Silence. Mercury vapor lamps bathe the parking lot with ill-yellow light, the rancid colors of this or that import; worse, the reporter is standing there in Dockers and a sweater. The smell of cooked-off diesel, cut grass, and deep fat frying machines drifts through the night.]

"Did you see us play Iowa, in Iowa City?"

"Yes, actually...."

"'Yes, actually' ....' and what does the "actually" mean? Is that more post-modern bullshit like what I hear that idiot Cook writes, slavering over some bare facsimile of what we run in Cedar Falls -- only we have a quarterback big enough to run the zone read? Do you know what Iowa's line is going to do to Tater Forcier?"

"Tate."

"He's in deep shit, that kid. Both of his shoulders are going to be separated. They'll kill him. Get a stretcher. It's not even funny. Clayborn is as fast as that kid, and Binns will just clothesline him like he did to Powell last week. Klugg --"

"It's Klug. Like Kloog."

"Klugg is built like an NFL tight-end, anyone notice? Jesus, it's not fair."

"You think they will handle the Michigan spread-to-run-thingy."

"RichRod is running a stupid offense in an attrition conference, and I feel sorry for his kids. Of course, Rodriquez will keep throwing injured kids out there until it's over, because he's got, like, $7mm of real estate debt to pay off. He's from West Virginia, and it's a third world country. Go Blue. Brian will explain why this is all totally great."

"Ummm. October 10."

"Right. We have an alum, a mystery guy, seems to have made some money. He paid tEIU $500K to swap Oct. 10 dates with us, so we get to go to Happy Valley."

"Why would he do that?"

"Don't know. I think, he thinks, maybe, Penn State doesn't get it yet."

"What's that?"

"We can play football too, and maybe better."

"They don't get it yet? Seven out of eight?"

"No. Evidently it's a fluke. Because they get the "five star" 17 year-olds. Can you believe that shit?"

"I'm a reporter, no opinion."

"I'm a coach. And a father. I'm more interested in what people do when they are 20 than when they are 17. I can't do anything with a 17 year-old. Do you know what the attention span of an athletic 17 year-old is? My kitchen table has a longer attention span."

At this point Farley, who had been pacing slowly, left and right, his eyes narrowed and his right hand reflexively reaching for the sandwich, the fork, the slice that he hadn't eaten yet at 11:30 p.m., stopped.

"Jesus, I'm hungry."

"It's midnight."

"Look. I should've beaten Iowa. Everyone knows that. And it's not because we're lite. It's because ... I can't talk about it. Probably, it's my fault. It's because we didn't think we should. We didn't believe, ourselves, we were good enough. But we were. We were good enough. That was our game. UNI-SUI? SUI-PSU? Same game, on Saturday there in the rain. Only Kirk made his guys believe they were good enough to beat them. And then they beat them to a pulp. Frankly speaking, as a coach, they beat them so bad in the second half you had to flinch.

"And meanwhile, *I* have to read about how wonderful PSU is, how great DC17 is, how magical the Beaver Stadium is, how perfect the Pennsylvania football culture is. I don't think so. Iowa is a good team, sure. They beat us. No one else will, this year. And we shoulda beat Iowa. UNI is a good team. I can't wait to line up against that oh-so-superior O-line, or that D-line that had -- what? 4 assists?

"Meanwhile, all these guys diminish Iowa because they almost lost to us. So we're taking this game.

"I have a better quarterback than Joe Paterno. Daryll Clark? Pat Grace will be with an NFL team longer than Daryll Clark; wait, watch, see. I have a better O-line than Joe Paterno. I have a better offensive scheme than Joe Paterno, what with their Spread HD whatever the fuck that is, it doesn't work when they're under pressure, they don't have a single play that they can turn to. I have a better team than PSU. Their linebackers tackle great, their receivers catch the ball great ... what else? Anything? We're going. We don't throw it out there on the 50 and expect to win. We're going out there to play. We are the second team that plays team football that comes to State College -- and shuts them up."

Reached for comment, Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Bradley said, "No, actually, I don't want to play another team from that state, and especially one with a spread QB who isn't afraid of making a mistake. Unlike ours."

Galen Hall, PSU OC, said, "Didn't that Hodges dude's brother go to the NFL?"

Joe Paterno, accosted while he was berating a female driver on a local State College street, said, "They have more than one university in Iowa? That's very annoying!"

[Reporter and Coach walked in circles beneath the mercury vapor, hearing the buzzing and fall of the circling early autumn insects, their skidding, sneakered feet dragging across the chipped and distressed grit of the empty, lined parking lot. The early fall chill invaded the asphalt and a distant semi, loaded with early harvest beans hit the jake and slowed noisily to the four-way stop. (Note to self: very few PSU aficionados know what a jake is.) Reporter thinks: if I ask the wrong question, Coach will never speak with me again, and I'm a reporter in Iowa: If that happens I'll never work again. Go with the puffball.]

"Coach."

"What, it's midnight, I'm hungry."

"How're you getting there? Charter?"

Farley turned slowly in the mercury vapor mist. His eyes narrowed, his hands slowly sank into his microfiber coaching pants pockets.

"Yeah. Sure. We're going charter. A 757. Out of KALO."

"Really?"

"No. We're leaving Thursday morning in two buses and an equipment tractor trailer, from the field house. Then we'll be at the Comfort Inn and generating the largest Subway orders in State College history. And of course, the sports world will tremble."

"Tremble?"

"Tremble. Tremble at the majesty of Penn State, the wonder of their Big Win Over Akron, the brain-locking complexity of Spread HD (which no one can explain as a viable offense), the irrelevance of having better athletes on the line. As you can tell, I'm terrified."

"You're saying Penn State doesn't get it?"

"They don't get it. They still don't get it. We're going to play them before they *do* get it."

"Good luck, coach."

"Thank you. Take the over. Grace is going to make Stanzi look like he's playing Pony League."

Somewhere in Charleston, Illinois, Jake Christensen is saying,

"This isn't exactly fair. Exactly one Iowa player was recruited by PSU [Hunter -- he cleaned up -- ed.] and PSU had -6 yards in offense Q2. Meanwhile, my understudy is 12-3, and a couple of freshman from Lincoln and Heelan (i.e., DSM Lincoln, SUX Heelan, thank you) make ooh-ooh-ooh Royster look like a scout team guy who cannot hang on to the ball.

"So no, I would prefer to play them myself."

###

Nic Grigsby, Carrying an Entire Offense.

Bellanca — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 21:59:52 -0000

Arizona has something going on: they lost to USC by 7 last year, in mid-season. However, since then they've lost their two best offensive playmakers (QB and TE (Gronkowski is reportedly out). All the noise this week has been about the RB Grigsby, and his 8+ ypc average.

I don't think Grigsby is that good, that tough, or that big. Here's why, and after shutting down LeSean McCoy and Javon Ringer last year, if we have trouble with this guy, we're in for a long year.

So, Grigsby. He's listed at 5'10", 190, so you know, he's really 5'9", 180 -- max. He's not that big of a guy . If we decide to stop arm tackling this week he will feel it a few times. IOW, he's 50 pounds lighter, and no faster, than the RB we practiced against all last year. Edds might be as quick, and outweigh him by 60. Not to be arrogant, but he looks like an undersized Wegher, to me. His coach loves to talk about his "competitiveness". That's fine, but no one ever said Shonn, Tavian, or Ronnie were "competitive." Being "competitive" is usually the sobriquet reserved for us scrubs who happen to be of the Caucasian persuasion.

Last year, Grigsby fumbled a lot early, was benched, and returned to average a little over 100 ypg the rest of the way. (overall 5.4 ypc.) That's fine. They ran for 150 a game as a team. I guess you'd be impressed if this were the NFL.

This year he is averaging 8+ per carry -- but is he really? This sample set includes CMU (which, admittedly, beat MSU last week) and Northern Arizona (playing their first game of the year). Against NAU, he had a 94 yard run. Throw that out as an outlier, and he's, again, making 4-5 yards a carry, average, against teams that will not be petitioning to join the Pac-10. (He is an adjusted 37 carries for 231.) I think he's a fairly reliable 4-5 ypc back against average run defenses, because that fits the historical data model. We're not constructed to be an average run defense. We're supposed to be top 20, and we usually are. The plan has to be to take him out of the game and make someone else beat us. If someone else does, it will be that man's career game.

He has 1 reception for 12 yards. He's on track to meet last year's numbers: 12 for 62. And we care?

The QB is a newbie who doesn't seem to make dumb mistakes: his efficiency score is 124.

My take on this game, therefore:

1. It's time for us to start playing run defense as we did last year. If we do, and limit ourselves to two Stanzi-balls, we win. If their QB can beat us, well, there's always Templeton Rye.

2. Arizona likes to slug and plug on D. If we cross them up by running more than the Sainted Seven plays, we win.

3. If we can't stop Grigsby, we're going to be shredded for the first time in memory once we get to the Big Ten. Even by Illinois. Maybe by Minnesota. This would not be good. See above: Templeton Rye.

4. I will be staring at who is controlling the LOS, because these are old school Ohio/Penna coaches (Youngstown and Pittsburg, for goodness sakes) and it's almost a guilty pleasure for them to play someone who doesn't spread the field and avoid the mosh pit between the hash marks. This game has the potential to be "That 70's Show".

5. I hope we run that pro-spread again. (Of course, if you're Arizona, and you have done your homework, you *want* Iowa to put the game in Stanzi's hands early, because he's a dangerously sloppy guy in the first half, historically .)

Net? I think we're playing a D'Antonio-like team, but one lacking either a proven QB or an exceptional RB. (Maybe CMU concluded same.) If we're a good team by now, if we tackle per the historical usual, we we will win. Are we a good team yet? Not demonstrated. Can we beat ourselves? Really well: Stanzi's first half fumble last week while being knocked around the pocket was among the uglier, out-of-control, eyes closed, where's-momma fumbles I've ever seen.

But if we're going to have a really good year, we will win this game. I think we'll learn a lot.

Not Satire: Real Story of ISU game?

Bellanca — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 12:18:59 -0000

[No reason for us to write today. Gracias. Bumped. -- Ed.]

I've been working nonstop and not scanning the intertubes much the last few days, but I offer this modest proposal, which I don't think has made the rounds yet:

The story of the ISU game was neither Wegher, nor our safety play. The story of the game has huge implications if we implement it going forward.

We started that game with a hard commitment to a pro-spread. From what I could see, and it's not much on a 15" computer screen, we have added the New England passing game to our Broncos' zone rushing game. By pro spread I mean 4- or 5-wide, with no QB run option. I can see college defenses game-planning one offense successfully, but not both -- and if this is the new Iowa offense, and Stanzi decides to start playing earlier in games (please?), we will be more explosive than many people expect. If Stanzi has an average day, accuracy-wise, versus ISU we hang 50 on them.

Something must be up. Vandenberg gets in the game, it's a blowout -- and we've got him throwing the ball. Ferentz is not a guy who embarrasses his opponents, much less an opponent he has to play every year. But he wanted the sophomore throwing the ball in his first series against the in-state rival in a blowout.

Footnotes to this idea: we have RBs, at least two, who can catch the ball, and thus we can shift out of the zone rush game into this pro-spread look -- after defensive personnel are fixed. My suspicion is that we'll rarely go empty backfield, because of innate conservatism and concern about Stanzi's health. I noted that we were rotating Morse into the game on obvious passing downs Saturday.

Another reason to keep this look in the book: I believe we have the deepest receiver corps in recent memory, and there's evidence of that in the distribution of catches, as well as the volatility in Moeki's numbers (10 catches, 1 catch: this is good news because if someone wants to take him out of the game we'll just shrug and throw it to the other guys -- successfully).

Incidentally, we came out four-wide v. Pitt last year, so I suppose that I should note that our pro-spread look may be unique to something Rhoads likes to do on D.

Certainly I'd welcome correction from the group. Perhaps I'm missing something. But consider the implications if people have to start using the words "Iowa" and "multivariate offense" in the same sentence. This is constraint-based scheming to the max, and is a great, Iowa-specific, strategic response to spread mania as well as our opponents' extreme familiarity with our zone rush game. Last, we still have the play-action passing game out of the zone rush look, and frankly, when we don't drop the ball or throw it to the wrong color jersey, no one has stopped that, either.

How'd you like to play a team that runs like the Broncos and throws like the Pats? "Wow," I believe one guy would say, post-modern sense of irony fully in check. "That would be some kind of a tough deal, you ask me."