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Just leave it broken. Thanks. -- Nate McMillan

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One item on Nate McMIllan's agenda today that wasn't mentioned in my earlier practice report is McMillan's belief that his team needs to get shots earlier in the shot clock.  

This afternoon, Dwight Jaynes asked me whether there was a way to find out how many shots the Blazers have taken with the shot clock winding down. Jaynes asserted, "This team has to be leading the league."  Given that the Blazers are currently the slowest-paced team in the league according to John Hollinger, this prediction makes a lot of sense: slower pace = longer possessions = more shots with the clock winding down. 

But how much does milking the clock and taking late shots help or hurt the Blazers? Does it matter?

Thanks once again to Synergy Sports and the Invisible Ninja we have some pretty definitive statistics to answer these questions.

Synergy tracks shots that it calls "short shot clock" shots, those taken with under 4 seconds on the clock.  According to Synergy, through games played last night...

• Portland leads the entire league in field goal attempts on a short shot clock (160). The Utah Jazz (158) and Detroit Pistons (157) are in second and third respectively.  
• The Blazers, Jazz and Pistons all have 7 to 8 percent of their halfcourt possessions ending with short shot clock field goal attempts.  This leads the league.  
• To no one's surprise the Phoenix Suns (64), Los Angeles Lakers (73) and the Golden State Warriors (75) are the three teams that find themselves in this situation the least.  These teams find only 3 to 4 percent of their possessions ending with short shot clock field goal attempts.
• Unfortunately for the Blazers, while they are 1st in the league in short shot clock field goal attempts, they are 26th in the league in short shot clock field goal percentage.  The Blazers shoot 29% overall on short shot clock shots.  For comparison, the team shoots 45% from the field overall.  Their short shot clock percentage is better than only Indiana (28% on 113 attempts), Detroit (27% on 157 attempts), Denver (27% on 81 attempts) and Philadelphia (26% on 92 attempts). 
• The best shooting teams on short shot clocks: Sacramento (44% on 103 attempts), San Antonio (40% on 90 attempts), Cleveland (39% on 151 attempts) Houston (39% on 118 attempts), Washington (38% on 93 attempts).
• Synergy rates the Blazers "Below Average" in this category overall. They are "Poor" on jump shots taken on a short shot clock.  
• The one bright side: the team is "Very Good" on shots taken around the basket on a short shot clock. Unfortunately, the ratio of short shot clock jumpers to short shot clock shots around the basket is 4.6 to 1.  Eek.

Thanks to his recent Achilles surgery, Nate McMillan rides on this wheelie cart when he's not on crutches.

McMillan spoke today about the "slippage" he has seen from the team's effort and execution.  "My leg is in this cast because of slippage," McMillan said, prompting some light chuckles from reporters. "No, seriously," McMillan continued, "It was slippage then... communicating on defense and setting screens and talking and sprinting out and all of those things we're talking about now, we've got to do."

McMillan has recalibrated his goals for the season: he wants to make the playoffs. He also seems to have come to terms with the fact that Greg Oden is out for the season.  I suppose a week watching your team struggle through a road trip on TV will do that.  For the latest on GO, click on this morning's update.

Jerryd Bayless

After practice today, Jerryd Bayless was adamant in repeating his earlier statements on twitter, steadfast in saying that he was not referring to his teammates after the game in Milwaukee.  Jason Quick tracked him down after practice and they spoke briefly.  After that conversation, Bayless told Brian T. Smith that the incident had been a "miscommunication."  

Much more, including the quote below, from Brian T. Smith here...

A miscommunication between both of us. He's not trying to start anything. It was nothing like that. It was just a miscommunication on both our parts. And I apologize. I'll take the blame for it. That's not what I was trying to say; maybe he took it the wrong way. Maybe I insinuated that. But that's by far something I was not trying to say. I would never put down Steve or Andre, because both of them are great. Especially Steve and Andre - they both do different things that help this team. It's just a miscommunication and things like that happen.

Soon after the media session was complete, Bayless showed some real class in tweeting...

J. Quick didn't do anything wrong.. It was an accident and bad communication between both of us

Drama aside, Bayless saw his playing time ramp up a little bit on the road trip and Nate McMillan spoke at practice today about the team's need to attack defenses more aggressively.  Clearly, that's good news for Bayless. 

Here's a quick question and answer I did with Jerryd Bayless at practice today.

Blazersedge: Have you talked to Nate about your role in the last few weeks?

No, I haven't really talked to him about my role. When he puts me out there I'm going to try to do the best I can to help this team. Any given circumstance. If he plays me at the one, two, three, four or five. I'm just going to do my best to try to help this team win games.

Blazersedge: Some people believe you'll have more success if you continue to play at the 2 spot instead of the 1. Would you agree?

No, I don't think so. The thing is, it's whoever gets it, really goes, with me and Andre or me and Steve or whatever. Last year when Steve was out I think I had a lot of success there too. Whatever this team needs like I said, right now I can't really be picky about where I play. I'm not in that position. Hopefully we can get better, try to win some more games.

Blazersedge: Back during training camp we talked about how you saw the point guard position as a competition between you, Steve and Andre.  How has that competition shaken out? How do you feel you're doing compared to those guys?

I think I'm doing well. Everytime I get an opportunity I'm trying to do my best to contribute to this team. That's kind of the coach's decision when it comes down to it. What he wants and what he sees fit. I don't know I think I'm doing well. They're also doing well. Andre has had some really big games, Steve has had some big games.

Blazersedge: You seem like a different player from last year. Your shooting percentage is way up.  Your turnovers are down.  Nate really hasn't talked to you about that during the last month?

Nah, we haven't really talked about that. He told me 'good game' after the Houston game. Today is the first day I've seen him. The Houston game was the first game that Rudy was out. So it was the first game I really played besides that stretch I was playing one. I think I did well when I was playing one for a little bit, when they went to the three guard lineup and I was coming off the bench being the backup point. We haven't really talked.

Blazersedge: How do you feel about playing in a three guard lineup compared to a traditional two guard lineup?

I just like to play, man. I love basketball. Right now I can't really be choosy about my situation. Whenever I get on the court, whether it's one, two, three, four or five, I'm going to try to contribute to this team.

Blazersedge: Last week there were rumors that you had approached Kevin Pritchard for a trade. Did you?

No.

Blazersedge: Did your agent or anyone else approach Kevin Pritchard on your behalf?

Not that I know of.

Blazersedge: How do you think something like that gets started?

Probably because I wasn't playing. Someone wanted to write it.

Blazersedge:  What's your reaction when you read people writing about your facial expressions during games?

I think it's just me being competitive. I don't think it's really 'grumpy.' It's just an intense look. When I get in there, I'm trying to win at any cost possible. It's just me. I can't really change that.

Starting Lineup

Nate McMillan indicated at practice that he is re-evaluating the starting lineup.  

I gotta look at everything. Certainly we're looking at that. I want to talk to the coaches more about it but we're a different team now. We're a different team without the two guys early -- Travis and Nicolas -- and we're certainly a different group without Big Greg and now without Rudy. We gotta find a way to get a group out there, maintain and win games and try and stay in this thing until we can get some guys healthy. So yes I'm looking at that.

McMIllan claimed to be looking at all positions aside from Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that Nate McMillan is finally bringing himself to reconsider the starting point guard position.

Jason Quick first reported on 95.5FM last week that McMillan was looking at starting Andre Miller in place of Steve Blake.  He repeated that claim today, stating on Wheels at Work that he is receiving "strong indications that Andre Miller will move into the starting lineup tomorrow night."  Quick also stated that he expects Jerryd Bayless to receive "very much more" playing time.

Rudy Fernandez

Rudy joined Nicolas Batum in attendance at practice today while Greg Oden and Travis Outlaw were not present.  Rudy reported feeling much better after his surgery and said all the right things about getting back as soon as possible to help the team.

Shavlik Randolph

Ira Winderman is reporting that the Miami Heat have released Shavlik Randolph.  Best of luck to Shavlik.

-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter

In case you were wondering: a source close to Greg Oden says the center is "upbeat" and is currently recovering at home with his family.  Oden's father flew into town to be with his son.  Oden is expected to remain in Portland to continue his rehabilitation work and likely will not be travelling with the team on any road trips this season. His next few months are expected to include "rehab and television."  Best wishes.

Lots to discuss this week, Bayless and otherwise.  Here's what you might have missed on BE recently...

Synergy on Bayless | Cavs Recap | Bucks Recap | Quick vs. Bayless | Dave on Bayless

All caught up?  Good.  Now, please give your full attention Brian T. Smith's profile of Andre Miller. I think it is his best work of the year; there's so much going on here.  

Soon, Ben Furnace was teaching Miller basketball at a local YMCA facility located a few blocks from The Forum, where the Los Angeles Lakers then played. Ben preached layups, bounce passes, defense and floor spacing - many of the key traits that define Miller's current game. And he strove to instill in Miller an appreciation of teamwork, sharing and selflessness.

"We didn't have kids where they felt they were star of the team," Furnace said. "We didn't allow that."

In addition, there were values such as independence and diligence that the Furnaces upheld, as well as rules that were made not to be broken: no disrespect and no misbehavior. Each value and every rule was passed on to Miller.

"What we did as a family then, we still do today," Furnace said. "We don't deviate. We don't have no highs, we don't have no lows."    

Click through to go around the internet.

-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter

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In his game recap last night, Jason Quick of The Oregonian couched some potentially explosive, potentially generic quotes from Jerryd Bayless into a typically fiery narrative. 

Bayless, meanwhile, is doing his best not to explode. His sour face when he was pulled with 10:14 left in the fourth, despite having hit two key baskets near the end of the third quarter, told the story.

Bayless feels like he is not awarded the trust nor the freedom from the coaching staff, which often pulls him after a mistake, no matter how many positive plays he produced prior. 

"I know every time I play I've helped this team. Every single time,'' Bayless said before Saturday's game. "It's tough. Especially since, and I hate saying this, seeing these other guys (Blake and Miller) doing what they are doing. I know I can help this team. I know I can.''    

Late last night, within hours of the story being posted, Jerryd Bayless clarified the meaning of these quotes on his official twitter page, here and here.

Never would I question my teamates abilities... I was talking about other young guards helping theiir teams out around the league!!

I have way to much respect for them to ever do something like that... And they are way to good.. We will bounce back from tonight.. BELIEVE

It should be noted that this isn't the first time Jerryd Bayless has had troubles with writers covering the team.  This past summer, there was a week-long confusion regarding whether Bayless had or hadn't worked out with Greg Oden in Ohio, prompted by contradictions between multiple sources close to the situation and Bayless himself.

With that said, we're looking at a tricky ethical situation here because the words "(Blake and Miller)" are in print but weren't actually spoken by Bayless himself.

How did those words get there?  Did Bayless indicate nonverbally to the writer -- as regularly happens in the locker room setting -- that he was speaking about his fellow point guards? Did he motion towards his teammates? Point at them? Use nicknames for them? Refer to them by their uniform numbers? Call them profanities that couldn't be printed? There are many ways for bracketed words to find their way into pieces.  

Generally speaking, the writer holds an extra degree of responsibility over those words and must be absolutely sure that they accurately represent what the player meant at the time.  Otherwise, everyone -- writer, player, readers -- is left with a quintessential case of "he put words in my mouth" without any audio tape to help clear things up.  When in doubt in these situations, seeking clarification is essential. 

In this case, given the consequences of a statement resulting from the words that appear in brackets, the burden falls on the writer to explain how he arrived at "(Blake and Miller)."  With such an obvious alternative present (the one Bayless put on twitter, which is consistent with statements made in the past) one would hope there is reasonable justification for entering his teammates' names into the quote. What was it?  

Can you blame Jerryd Bayless for harboring some frustration after watching young point guards like Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Jonny Flynn, Brandon Jennings, Ty Lawson, Tyreke Evans and Darren Collison receive significant run? After seeing former Blazers Jarrett Jack, Channing Frye and Sergio Rodriguez enjoy success almost as soon as they left Portland?  

That seems to mirror Bayless's explanation on twitter pretty closely, doesn't it?  On a night when he watched fellow young stud Brandon Jennings (18/11/4) give his team fits and when he was able to make positive contributions in limited minutes himself, you would expect that grass-is-greener frustration to be at full simmer.

One thing is clear: calling out his teammates is totally out of character for the public Jerryd Bayless of the last 18 months. Given that track record, in this case of he said/he said I believe Bayless deserves the full benefit of the doubt.

And we all deserve a fuller explanation of what was said and unsaid in that Milwaukee locker room.

-- Ben Golliver | (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com) | Twitter

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With Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum and Travis Outlaw all out of action, we've reached a crossroads for Jerryd Bayless.  

As Dwight Jaynes recently pointed out, Bayless hasn't been particularly happy in Portland this season.  If you're looking for a symbol of his restlessness, you need look no further than his blogspot blog, a declaration of independence from an organization that squashed the idea of hosting his blog on Blazers.com for as-yet-unexplained reasons during his rookie year.  

"I don't need team approval to express myself any more," Bayless seems to be saying.  What's the number one reason people start personal blogs?  They're looking for an avenue to get things off their chest. 

Can you blame Jerryd Bayless for harboring some frustration after watching young point guards like Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Jonny Flynn, Brandon Jennings, Ty Lawson, Tyreke Evans and Darren Collison receive significant run? After seeing former Blazers Jarrett Jack, Channing Frye and Sergio Rodriguez enjoy success almost as soon as they left Portland?  

Are you wondering which Blazer shakes the most hands before games with coaches and players from other teams around the league? I can tell you unequivocally, without hesitation, that Blazer is Jerryd Bayless.

I'll admit to some Team Bayless fatigue at the start of the season.  There is a limit to the number of times you can repeat the phrase "Give the kid a chance!" before everyone starts drowning you out.  As recently as last month, I was so sick of listening to myself champion Jerryd Bayless's cause that I decided to pretty much stop writing about him all together. 

Today that changes.  Because I finally found someone or something that thinks Bayless deserves more playing time as much as I do.  That someone or something is Synergy Sports. (For a rundown of Synergy Sports read this post from last week.)

While Bayless has played just 10 minutes per game -- compared to 29 minutes for Steve Blake and 27 for Andre Miller -- Synergy's profiles offer little evidence that this is an appropriate distribution of minutes.  In fact, the Synergy profiles offer ample evidence that Jerryd Bayless should be seeing a significant increase in playing time.  Let's break it down.

The New, (Mostly) Improved Bayless

Last year there were three main knocks on Bayless: he couldn't hit a jump shot, he turned the ball over, and he too often played defense with his hands, committing unnecessary fouls. Let's take each criticism in turn.

Bayless is Shooting Lights Out

It's just about time to put the first criticism -- that Bayless can't shoot -- to bed.  Bayless is connecting on a remarkable 52.7% of his field goal attempts, far and away the best of any Blazer guard.

Where's that improvement coming from? One thing is for sure: it's not coming from distance.  Bayless continues to resist shooting the 3 ball, something that he's never done well as a pro.  His 3 point shooting is pretty much atrocious but it barely affects his overall offensive efficiency because he isn't jacking up many threes.

Instead, his offensive efficiency has sky-rocketed from last year because he has shown significant improvement in virtually every other facet of his offensive game.  Check this chart out.

In the chart, PPP refers to points per possession.  Synergy defines this is terms of the player relative to the plays that individual is primarily responsible for.  This chart shows quite clearly the leap Bayless has taken on offense.  No other Blazer comes close to matching his 63 percentile jump year over year in efficiency.  That kind of improvement just doesn't happen. It's a testament to how much he struggled as a rookie in spot duty and to how we shouldn't let memories of last year cloud our judgment of him this year.

You might be surprised to find out what is propelling this outlandish improvement.  Get this: Bayless currently ranks in the 100% percentile as a mid-range jump-shooter.  Seriously.  From 17 feet out to the three point line, Bayless is by far the best on his team and ranks among the top 5 players in the NBA in shooting percentage.  Simply incredible.  

Bayless is Protecting the Rock

The second knock on Bayless -- that he's sloppy with the basketball -- is looking less and less like a reality this year. Take a look at this comparison between Bayless, Andre Miller and Steve Blake when it comes to what Synergy calls %TO and %FT.  %TO refers to the percentage of possessions where this player is the primary ball handler that end in a turnover. %FT refers to the percentage of possessions where this player is the primary ball handler that end in a trip to the foul line.

As you can see, not only is Bayless far and away the best of the three point guards at getting to the foul line, he's actually better at protecting the ball than either one of his veteran teammates too.  Does it help that Bayless plays against backups and that he has been used off the ball? Sure it does.  But Bayless has shown evidence of maturity as a ball-handler too: he's slashed his turnovers per game from 1.1 last year to .6 this year.  

When Bayless does turn the ball over it can get ugly, like the time he was sprawled out in Madison Square Garden expecting a whistle that never came.  The point isn't that Bayless doesn't commit turnovers. The point is he has committed them far less frequently than last year while also getting to the foul line more frequently. That's a recipe for increased offensive efficiency, something the Blazers have long sought from the point guard position (more on that later).

Bayless Is Too Handsy on Defense

No question about it: the third criticism of Bayless -- that he uses his hands too much on defense and commits needless fouls -- is still accurate.  Kevin Pelton ran the numbers for me.  This chart shows foul rate: how many fouls per possession each of the Blazers' three point guards commits.

As you can see, Bayless is far and away the worst of the three.  This is a flaw.  But is it fatal?  Does it disqualify him from being a good or adequate defender? We'll look at that in a little bit.

Bayless on Offense

Now that we've addressed each of the three major criticisms of Bayless, let's dig a little deeper into his overall performance on offense and defense compared to Andre Miller and Steve Blake.  

If you've browsed Bayless' Per 36 minute numbers (statistics adjusted for playing time) you no doubt are already aware that his points per 36 put him among the team's leaders. In terms of instant offense, he leads every bench player (including Travis Outlaw) by a wide margin.  He out-paces both Andre Miller and Steve Blake.  

This isn't necessarily surprising for someone that hasn't received a lot of playing time and who is instructed to be aggressive with the ball when he is in the game.  

However, we should not write off Bayless' offensive production as simply the meaningless product of garbage time.  Synergy notes that Bayless has enjoyed success in virtually every aspect of offense that it tracks.  Bayless ranks "Good" overall in the Pick and Roll, "Excellent" in dribbling off picks, "Excellent" in isolation and "Very Good" in transition.  With the ball in his hands, regardless of situation, Bayless has been getting it done.

All of those rankings are a function of two basic skills: Bayless can beat his man off the dribble and he can draw fouls.  Those skills are incredibly valuable from an efficiency perspective because they lead to high field goal percentages and free points from the foul line. Combine that with Bayless's new-found ability to protect the basketball and he currently stands as the team's best point guard at offensive efficiency.  And he does so by a wide margin.

If there's room for improvement for Jerryd Bayless on offense it comes from his pass outs on the pick and rolls.  This probably doesn't surprise you.  He rates "Average" and "Below Average" in some pass-out categories whereas he rates "Very Good" and "Excellent" from the same spots when he decides to shoot or drive instead of pass.  Certainly some of this is his fault.  However, as noted last week in the discussion of LaMarcus Aldridge's passing, the Blazers spot-up shooting overall hasn't been great and the guys Bayless is passing to in the second unit -- Rudy Fernandez and Martell Webster -- have been particularly weak.

By comparison, Andre Miller's turnovers in transition (an astonishing 23.8 %TO) and "Below Average" jump shooting are significantly bigger detriments to the team's offensive efficiency.  Steve Blake's "Poor" mid-range shooting, "Poor" ability to run the pick and roll overall and horrible shooting when the shot clock is running out (just 15% from the field with less than 4 seconds on the shot clock) are all significantly bigger detriments to overall offensive efficiency than Bayless's shortcomings as a passer. 

When I wrote a week or so ago that Andre Miller's ability to draw fouls was one of the Blazers' most valuable offensive weapons, it turns out I was half right.  I was right about the weapon but I was partially wrong about the player.  Bayless attempts 10 free throws per 36 minutes, leading the team, while Miller attempts 6 free throws per 36 minutes.  Miller's number is good... Bayless's is great.

Indeed, now that Greg Oden has gone down, Synergy's numbers, overall, state that Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Jerryd Bayless have been the team's top 3 most efficient offensive options this season. Roy plays 37 minutes per game, LaMarcus Aldridge plays 34 minutes per game and Bayless... well, he plays 10 minutes per game. How do you like them apples?

Bayless on Defense

To no one's surprise, we can attribute Bayless' relative lack of playing time to his coach's preference for defense-first.  Comparing the individual defensive efficiency numbers for the three point guards, Steve Blake is the clear winner. 

Despite all the talk about Andre Miller as a defensive upgrade over Blake -- including talk from me on that subject -- the numbers through 22 games don't support that assertion.  Miller has been slightly better than Bayless but noticeably worse than Blake.  

Both Blake and Miller enjoy solid success across most categories.  Blake is "Excellent" in pick and rolls, "Good" in isolation, and "Excellent" against spot-up shooters.  Miller is  "Good" in pick and rolls, "Excellent" in isolation, and "Average" against spot-up shooters.  Miller's numbers are pulled down a bit because he is "Below Average" in post-up situations, one of the negative by-products of the team's smaller 3 guard lineup.  

Bayless's numbers show that through 22 games he has a significant flaw in his defense: defending the pick and roll. Interestingly, however, Bayless rated "Very Good" in this category over the entirety of last year, suggesting that his current "Poor" ranking looks worse than it might be if his playing time increased.  Other than this weakness, Bayless posts "Good" or "Above Average" ratings in just about every other defensive situation this season.  He is also holding his man to a slightly lower shooting percentage this season. 

In conclusion, Synergy's data suggests that, overall, Jerryd Bayless is nearly as good a defensive option as Andre Miller this season, despite his high foul rate.  His data from last year suggests he would probably play better defense than he has played so far this year if his minutes increased.

Summary

Nate McMillan and his coaching staff are weighing their options when it comes to Jerryd Bayless.  They are certainly aware of his strengths on offense, his potential on defense and are likely worried about his propensity for fouling.  

Taking all of the above into account -- the success Blake has shown on defense, Bayless's foul rate -- it's difficult if not impossible to argue that Bayless should be starting or earning the bulk of the point guard playing time.  That's just not realistic at this point.  

However, if you're the coaching staff and you're simply looking for evidence that Bayless's burn should increase, I think there's plenty.  His offensive efficiency, his solid numbers overall on defense, his low turnover rate and his ability to get to the foul line are all big plusses.  Many of these did not exist last year.  Also, offensive struggles over 22 games and significant minutes from both Blake and Miller were not expected and, at some point, should not be tolerated without at least testing the obvious alternative.

If you calculate net points per possession for each of the three point guards,  Bayless does quite well.  To do this, simply subtract the defensive points per possession given away by the player from the offensive points per possession produced by the player.  The result gives you a sense for the individual's contribution each time up and down the court.  Doing this for each of the three point guards shows Bayless on top.

Is this enough to say that Bayless should be starting or that he's ready for 30 minutes a night?  Probably not.  His success in this stat is likely a function of being better than the backups he is playing against.  However, I think it does add nicely to the overall case that Bayless can handle -- and should be given -- say, 18 to 20 minutes a night while Rudy Fernandez is absent.  Give him two full runs through the rotation, one in the first half and one in the second half.  And, perhaps, experiment more with working Bayless into a three guard lineup to see if he can continue his scorching shooting while playing off the ball alongside Brandon Roy.

To summarize, the advanced stats really like Jerryd Bayless on offense and they like him more than the general consensus might like him on defense too.  Aside from foul rate and some struggles this year while defending the pick and roll, Synergy's reports see no major red flags that might result from increasing his playing time.  In cases where the Blazers are struggling on offense, Synergy's reports provide some very strong arguments that his playing time should be ramped up considerably.  

At the very beginning of this post I noted that the Blazers are at a crossroads with Bayless.  Put simply: in Jerryd Bayless's mind, it's about time that the Blazers trade him or play him.  

On this team, at this time, with these stats, I believe the strongest response to that question is to play him.

-- Ben Golliver | (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com) | Twitter