The eve of the biggest game of the season, and possibly of Jack Del Rio's career, has fallen. We all wait in anticipation for the game tomorrow night against the Indianapolis Colts. The team knows the importance of this game, a shot to stay alive in the wild card race, right? For a team that entered the season looking like 8 wins was an achievement, expectations have been changed. The playoffs would make a statement to the league about what the Jacksonville Jaguars are all about. 

What if this game was even more important than the ultimate regular season goal for the other 31 teams in the NFL, and that is to make the playoffs. I guarantee you to the upper Jaguars brass this game means something more. Something as important as keeping this team in Jacksonville...

For the first time this season, the blackout has been lifted. The generally fair-weather fans of this town are giving this team a chance to win them over. Wayne Weaver, as well, has given Jack a chance to win him over. A win here and a playoff berth this season would assure Wayne of Jack's ability to win, which in my opinion he has. 

This team, whether or not the younger guys know it, needs to win this game. Its time to man up, knock some heads, and kick ass. Now here is how we can beat the Colts...

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I have to admit, yes, the loss was a disappointment. However I don't think the panic button should be hit just yet. We are still in the top of the wildcard race. Granted we are third, we are still in it with a favorable schedule to finish up. Don't get me wrong, I hate to lose, in anything I do or cheer for; but I'm not throwing away the season either. This team can still get to the playoffs and compete once they get there. This has been a reloading year, not rebuilding. Don't kid yourselves into thinking the year is lost. 

I have some observations from todays game...

• The loss today can be put directly on the offensive line. Three times we were in the redzone, hot and looking ready to score touchdowns, only to have the line crumble and get Garrard planted, two times he fumbled the ball. On the third occasion he was hurried twice in a row which forced bad throws. Garrard needs to hold the ball, but that wouldn't be a problem if he wasn't running for his life every time he took a snap.
• The defense really played well today. They forced the 49ers into a few three and outs, swarmed to the ball, and generally got off the field on third down.
• If there was a title to this game, it would have to be "The Game of Missed Chances." The offense missed chances on three scoring opportunities, all of which were in the red zone, and all of which could have been touchdowns. 
• Piotr Czech and Matt Bryant are two kickers who happen to be free agents... just sayin...

Last off-season, I put together a post An Average Joe's Schedule Predictions. Looking back at the mid-season point, with the Jags sitting at 8-8, I realize I was way off on some of the game predictions up to the midpoint, but that I was on for some of them. Here we go...

Week 1. Colts.

My prediction was that we would win 24-20. We ended up losing the game, though we would have had a chance to win it had our offensive line been able to slow down Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeny. I talked about how big of an impact the draft choices were going to make if we were to beat the Colts. Eugene didn't have his best game, and the only rookies to make an impact were Terrance Knighton and Derek Cox, who had his first career interception. Mike Thomas, who has emerged as a play maker, wasn't even activated.

Week 2. Cardinals

My prediction was that we would lose 38-34. While we did lose as I predicted, but not quite as close. We struggled most of the game, and Nate Hughes let any chance at a comeback we had slip through his hands.

Week 3. Texans

My prediction was that we would lose 21-17. We ended up pulling this one out because of the nice addition of Mike Thomas, and a new wrinkle to the playbook. I spoke of how the Texans' running game would complement their passing game all too well. Turns out their running game allowed us to win.

Week 4. Titans

My prediction was that we would win 14-10. I was right, but boy was I wrong. We ended up humiliating Tennessee with our passing game. 

After four games, while I didn't predict the games we would win/lose quite right, I did call our record at 2-2 after four games. Remember the pre-season plan was to weather the first four games...

Week 5. Seahawks

I predicted we would win this game 21-20. No comment.

Week 6. Rams

I said we would win this one 35-17. We won, but it was a little closer than that because of mistakes that kept St. Louis in the game the whole time. We ended up going into overtime, and winning with a Scobee field goal. We could have easily blown this team out, both our time of possession and total yards were nearly double that of St. Louis.

Week 7. Bye Week

Week 8. Titans

I predicted we would lose this gritty one 17-16. I got the loss right, but I wish we could have lost by one point. Instead we established ourselves as a must start for opposing fantasy backs...

Week 9. Chiefs

I predicted we would win 31-10. Not too far off until the Chiefs had their little last punch before they died. 

After eight games at the midpoint of the season, I predicted our record to be 5-3, and headed on the right track to a wild card spot. Right now the Jags sit on a respectable 4-4 record, especially with our early schedule. I was off a game, but wasn't off about the possibility of a playoff berth. If we win the rest of the games we know we are capable of winning, 10-6, which is how I projected the Jaguars to finish the season, is still attainable. We need some luck for some of the opposing wild card teams to lose, and we may need some miracles to upset a few teams on our own record. One game at a time, and stay humble. Our best days are ahead of us, but that doesn't mean we have to roll over and be fodder for playoff bound teams.

This will be my first draft for this year. I did a bunch of them last year, and really enjoyed doing them. I meant to begin earlier in the season, but have been too busy with school. I've got a first round mock only for this week, but will try to do a two or three rounder next week. I love debate, so please feel free to argue a pick/give your insight on who the player selected should be. I used ESPN power rankings as the base for my draft order, but I mixed it up a little with my own idea of where each team will finish. Excuse any mistakes, I've put this together in my spare time the past few days, which is about 1 to 1:30 am.

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(I wanted to post this on Saturday night, but found you have to wait to post on this particular site. Just a little thoughts I had on your teams good showing against Florida...)

College football and the NFL sure are different beasts. Every game I convince myself which is better, changing my mind weekly on which is superior to the other. A few weeks ago, I finally figured out the fact that you can't compare the two. The ability of one player to dominate in college is unseen in the NFL, except for a select few in select years, such as Tom Brady in 2007 and Adrian Peterson the past two years. The same goes on the team level. Only in college football can a team dominate it's competition for more than a season. 

Being on Auburn fan has been tough on me the past three weeks. I have no legit reason to be a fan, but have been since I was about ten, and stuck with them ever since. After starting 5-0 and talk of challenging Alabama for the SEC West crown, the past three contest Auburn has sputtered. Their offense has looked anemic, when just weeks prior was generating talk around the nation. Their defense has been a sieve, allowing Arkansas, Kentucky and LSU, none of which are offensive juggernauts, to either punk them on the scoreboard, or score when allowing a score is not an option. And finally their special teams, which was hidden behind the wins of the early season, has been the same old as all year; not making plays and giving up plays to the other team.

So with a 31-3 score, I made the decision to stop hitting recall on the remote to just watching the Florida Miss. State game. I'd been checking it out periodically throughout the night, and saw a Bulldog team that knew what it wanted. It wanted to take advantage of a prime time game, at their house, and beat Florida in front of the whole nation. What an upset that would be, something that isn't supposed to happen to Florida. When it happened last season, the nation, and the Gators, were shocked together. One way or another, Florida wasn't going to be upset in 2009, at least not yet...

Each team played sloppy at one point or another. I saw interceptions for both sides, and poor execution at critical times. It's clear both teams play in the SEC. They have their respective well known offensive weapons, and each play tough, opportunistic defense that makes plays of their own. I saw this when Tebow was picked off in the redzone, the ball being returned 99 yards for a touchdown, making a game that seemed as if it was about to become out of reach into a manageable game at your home stadium. Suddenly everything looked great again for Miss. State, and the full support of the crowd noise could only help. Was an upset in the works. I'll tell you, I had a great feeling before the game even started. It seemed like my gut would prove to be something I could trust.

Until the play. Miss. State quarterback came onto the field needing a score to stay with Florida. His teammates on the other side of the ball had kept the high powered Florida offense in check for the better part of the night, now it was time for him to charge up his spread and score. He takes the snap, gets the ball tipped up in the air, and I, and I'm sure every other Bulldog fan in the country had their heat stop. Then everything snapped back into reality as Dustin Doe snagged the ball out of the air. He runs towards the endzone, and begins a Deion Sanders esque high step. Whether he knew it or not, a Miss. State player was closing in. 

The ball was hit, came out, and did not cross the plane in the control of Dustin Doe, its as simple as that. I watched the replay numerous times, along with the pieced together replay, which by the way the referee is allowed to use to come to the correct conclusion on a play. Doe didn't have the ball, and it was not a touchdown. The correct ruling would have been a touchback, giving the ball to Miss. State on the twenty yard line, with a new set of downs.

Now in no way am I criticizing the ruling on the field, which was a touchdown. That is a call in the heat of the moment, in a prime time SEC game. There is no real way the naked human eye could correctly diagnose a call that close; I completely understand that. What I am criticizing is the horrible call made by the booth on the call. There was absolutely conclusive evidence that would overturn that call had it been assessed correctly. I'm not saying that would have won the game for the Dawgs by any means, but I must say that could have kept all the momentum in the Bulldogs favor, despite the fact they briefly regained it later in the game, when it was too late.

Say what you will, but I have formed my opinion, Mississippi State got screwed. 

College football and the NFL sure are different beasts. Every game I convince myself which is better, changing my mind weekly on which is superior to the other. A few weeks ago, I finally figured out the fact that you can't compare the two. The ability of one player to dominate in college is unseen in the NFL, except for a select few in select years, such as Tom Brady in 2007 and Adrian Peterson the past two years. The same goes on the team level. Only in college football can a team dominate it's competition for more than a season. 

Being on Auburn fan has been tough on me the past three weeks. I have no legit reason to be a fan, but have been since I was about ten, and stuck with them ever since. After starting 5-0 and talk of challenging Alabama for the SEC West crown, the past three contest Auburn has sputtered. Their offense has looked anemic, when just weeks prior was generating talk around the nation. Their defense has been a sieve, allowing Arkansas, Kentucky and LSU, none of which are offensive juggernauts, to either punk them on the scoreboard, or score when allowing a score is not an option. And finally their special teams, which was hidden behind the wins of the early season, has been the same old as all year; not making plays and giving up plays to the other team.

So with a 31-3 score, I made the decision to stop hitting recall on the remote to just watching the Florida Miss. State game. I'd been checking it out periodically throughout the night, and saw a Bulldog team that knew what it wanted. It wanted to take advantage of a prime time game, at their house, and beat Florida in front of the whole nation. What an upset that would be, something that isn't supposed to happen to Florida. When it happened last season, the nation, and the Gators, were shocked together. One way or another, Florida wasn't going to be upset in 2009, at least not yet...

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(I originally posted this on Mocking the Draft, but figured I'd post it here as well, since it definitely pertains to the Jaguars.)

I've decided to take a shot at how to fix the Jaguars. While it can't be said that the Jaguars are broken, as they are young and up and coming, they could use more retooling and further addition of talent. I'm guessing they will finish the season around eight wins, so I'm guessing they will be picking in the middle of the rounds. The Jags have a lot of talent, but young talent that needs extended development. The focus has to be on the defense this year, as Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves are beginning to place doubts in the minds of Jaguars fans everywhere.

Gene Smith seems to have his specific ideals for drafting players, so I'm going to keep BAP in mind, but also take into consideration Gene's like for underrated/small school guys who are hard workers. I'm also assuming we stick with the 3-4 defense for next season. There is no way to tell, but Reggie Hayward's contract is up anyway, so we could again see a lack of bodies at the defensive end spot. 

At the end of the preseason we traded Tampa Bay a conditional draft pick for Josh McCown. Hopefully Garrard will stay durable despite the pounding he takes, so McCown will only cost us a seventh. (I'm still clarifying our exact pick situation, so forgive me for any mistakes.)

Round 1: Morgan Burnett-Georgia Tech. (Strong Safety)

I saw this pick in another mock and I'm sticking with it. Mays and Berry are off the board, but Burnett could pull himself up into that conversation. I watch Tech often and I love what this guy can do. He makes plays all over the field, tackles well in run support, and above all is a ball hawk, with seven interceptions last season and 4 so far this season; an area the Jaguars desperately need improvement in. He could kick Gerald Alexander to free safety, and Reggie Nelson to cornerback, and upgrade the secondary as whole. While a pass rusher could be considered a major need here, since the Jaguars are tied with the Jets for 31st in the league in the sack category, with a whopping five quarterback drops, I'm not ready to label Harvey and Groves as busts, as it is their first year in the 3-4 system.

Gene Smith radar: Burnett is highly talented, is in no way a character concern, and could start soon after being drafted, all things that spur Gene's interest. The Jaguars are one of the worst pass defenses in the league, while pass rush help is necessary as well, safety is a major concern.

Round 3: Vince Oghobaase-Duke. (Defensive End/Tackle)

I'm not sure if he will last this long, but if he does, he could be a great 3-4 end. I've watched him a few times over the past two years, and it seems that he has good power and agility. He needs to add more strength to be an effective end in the 3-4, but that should be no problem in Luke Richeson's unique weight training program. While third rounders aren't often looked at to be immediate contributers, the Jags found a nice surprise this season with rookie Terrance Knighton who was drafted in the third round. This pick makes the line another step younger, placing Vince with Knighton and the aging but newly rejuvenated John Henderson.

Gene Smith radar: Vince is another seemingly high character guy who is a great effort player. He is smart, as he went to Duke, which is something Del Rio likes in a player. While a quarterback could be a possibility here, I think the organization still fully backs David Garrard and is not ready to hand over the reigns just yet. A quarterback will be drafted in this draft, but the defense needs to be fixed first.

Round 4: Noel Devine-West Virginia. (Running Back)

Unless a team falls in love with his speed, he should end up being picked around the fourth round. Devine has extreme speed and elusiveness in the open field. He has ability to break arm tackles, and catches the ball well out of the backfield. The Jaguars recently inked Jones-Drew to a pretty lucid contract extension, but the Jaguars don't have a scat type of back that can give Drew a break on third downs and make plays as a dump off option; somebody that Garrard can feed the ball to when teams are pinning their ears back and taking advantage of those rookie tackles.

Gene Smith radar: The team spoke this off-season of getting Garrard some weapons, and it appears they did. Grabbing Devine would add to the quickly developing arsenal of weapons David has now amassed. 

Round 5: Thaddeus Lewis-Duke. (Quarterback)

Thaddeus is a greatly underrated player in his senior season at Duke. He has started since his freshman season, and has always been hidden on a bad team; the truth is the guy can really play. He has scrambling ability and is fairly accurate. Has shown some nice down the field arm strength as well. Will remind many Jaguars fans of David Garrard in both build and playing style.

Gene Smith radar: The team knows it needs a developmental quarterback to groom for the future. Thad Lewis reminds the organization of David Garrard, and seems capable of running a passing oriented offense, which is what I feel the Jaguars are headed towards in the future. 

Round 6: Ryan Pugh-Auburn. (Center/Guard)

While Ryan Pugh may not come out, as he is just a junior, he represents who Gene Smith would be looking at here. An interior lineman is needed to compensate for Brad Meester, whenever he leaves. Whoever is taken here would be looked at as a developmental prospect who could train and get stronger for the future. 

Gene Smith radar: Gene always stays true to BAP, and he could have some guards and centers for the future high on his board at this point of the draft. Stock up on late talent, which Gene's staff seems good at finding, and develop for the future.

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I've decided to take a shot at how to fix the Jaguars. While it can't be said that the Jaguars are broken, as they are young and up and coming, they could use more retooling and further addition of talent. I'm guessing they will finish the season around eight wins, so I'm guessing they will be picking in the middle of the rounds. The Jags have a lot of talent, but young talent that needs extended development. The focus has to be on the defense this year, as Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves are beginning to place doubts in the minds of Jaguars fans everywhere.

Gene Smith seems to have his specific ideals for drafting players, so I'm going to keep BAP in mind, but also take into consideration Gene's like for underrated/small school guys who are hard workers. I'm also assuming we stick with the 3-4 defense for next season. There is no way to tell, but Reggie Hayward's contract is up anyway, so we could again see a lack of bodies at the defensive end spot. 

At the end of the preseason we traded Tampa Bay a conditional draft pick for Josh McCown. Hopefully Garrard will stay durable despite the pounding he takes, so McCown will only cost us a seventh. (I'm still clarifying our exact pick situation, so forgive me for any mistakes.)

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