
Bettman's Nightmare
Jan 04, 2010 May 30, 2012 373 5157
A PhD student of Africology at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee with hockey blood pumping through my veins. My claims to fame are as follows: a.) In high school, I once shadowed Joe Pavelski, b.) I drove the Zamboni for 5 years, and c.) I spent one month in Ghana, where I manufactured an upset of two Chinese ping pong players and put a football shot off the crossbar playing with villagers near Accra.
I created a blog called Bettman's Nightmare a while ago because my buddies kept filling my inbox with their ramblings, so I figured it could be a outlet for us. Like children with a new toy, they ignored the blog, and still fill up my inbox. But here I am.
Twitter: @BenjaminWendorf
website: Arctic Ice Hockey
email:
a fan of
Milwaukee Brewers
Chelsea
Wisconsin Badger Hockey; All NHL
Dick RiPietro
Charles Barkley
No thanks.
Alexander Semin
Evander Kane
Bears on Bicycles
Richie Tennenbaum
Jamaica
Whatever team Kim Yu Na is on...
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NHL Awards 2012: Arctic Ice Hockey Casts Hart Trophy Ballot
There's not a better way to interpret the Hart Trophy for me than to think of who was the most valuable player to their team. To simply say "the most valuable player in the league" doesn't mean anything, because if they're good they have negative values to far more teams than they have positive values...so the MVP concept should be grounded in who was most valuable to their team. Each of my picks were vital contributors to teams that would not have been successful without them, and for me that's about as close to high value as you can get.
My choices and reasoning after the jump.
NHL Awards 2012: Arctic Ice Hockey Casts Selke Trophy Ballot
For me, the Selke Trophy is both my favourite and least favourite award. No award is more misunderstood without some statistical clarification, but at the same time the number of metrics I'd need to look into for it is pretty large. The differences between two-way and fully defensive forwards is also an important distinction, and my assertion that both should be considered is not universally accepted.
My ballot and explanation after the jump.
NHL Awards 2012: Arctic Ice Hockey Casts Masterton Trophy Ballot
To be honest, when it came to the Masterton Trophy, I had to look it up to make sure I was barking up the right tree. I knew it had to do with determination and perseverance, or something like that, but I had to make sure (it's "perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication"). With that clarified, I figured everyone would have their own notion of what that means, but I also recalled that it usually goes to players that have fought back from serious injuries or illnesses, so I had that thought in mind with my ballot.
My picks and rationale after the jump.
NHL Awards 2012: Arctic Ice Hockey Casts Calder Trophy Ballot
The Calder Trophy is always one of the harder ones for me because you're usually dealing with players that are either very sheltered or haven't provided full regular seasons. This year was very unusual in that regard, though, as we had a number of players provide full seasons playing some pretty big minutes (Gabriel Landeskog, Jake Gardiner, Adam Henrique, Matt Read). As such, it was hard to identify the best of this group, as there were steady, impressive performances to go with electric, shortened performances.
My ballot with explanation after the jump.
NHL Awards 2012: Arctic Ice Hockey Casts Lady Byng Trophy Ballot
I remember that, when I grew up, we always kinda hated on the Lady Byng Trophy because it suggested (to us) that it was usually won by a softie, a weak player, etc. A good player to us also took penalties at times, because he/she "played on the edge." Over time, though, I've come to appreciate the guys who can play this game at a high level and avoid the mistakes that significantly hurt their team. I've even found a bit of evidence that this can be a demonstrable talent in regards to hitting. This is actually the first time I've thought about the Byng in reference to how well a player can engage things like takeaways and hits without committing penalties, and I think my ballot is intuitive to that.
My picks and explanation after the jump.
NHL Awards 2012: Arctic Ice Hockey Casts Norris Trophy Ballot
After determining that most of Puck Daddy's readership thinks I'm an idiot yesterday (to be fair, words of my own choosing, though I really could care less what the PD crowd thinks - just read their comment threads once), SB Nation moved on to announcing the Writers' Pick for the Norris Trophy today. Where the Vezina Trophy possibilities were pretty thinly sliced, there's a bit more gap between the candidates for best defenceman.
My pick and rationale after the jump
NHL Awards 2012: Arctic Ice Hockey Casts Vezina Trophy Ballot
As Trevor called your attention to earlier, the SB Nation NHL writers have done a big time collaborative effort to put forward our idea of the NHL Awards, combining the popular appeal writers with the analytical folks to put forward what we hope will be an enticing alternative to the abomination awards ceremonies usually are. The brainchild of Travis Hughes (and our super-secret message board), we followed the awards voting format (1 point for 3rd place vote, 2 points for 2nd, and 3 for 1st place) and the respondents (at least one from every SBN blog) threw down their votes. I was AIH's sole respondent because Trevor's been tangled up in podcast wires for the last week and Gabe's busy asking poor children in developing countries what their favourite football team is before telling them their team sucks (with graphs!).
My vote for the Vezina (with explanation) after the jump.
The NHL's Most Interesting Name: And the Winner Is...
It was a long, meandering trip through 95 years of NHL history, bringing together such great names as Leif Rohlin, Odie Cleghorn, Obs Heximer, not to mention numerous porn names like Jimmy Orlando and Brian Bonin. For all the fun I had, there could only be one, and it came down to the inspiring names of two courageous men, Zarley Zalapski and Peanuts O'Flaherty.
Pilot's Logbook 2011-12: Andrew Ladd
The Pilot's Logbook looks at the performances of regular Jets players over the course of 2011-12, primarily through time on-ice and Gabe's player performance charts.
Finally, we come to one of our TOI monsters in Andrew Ladd. Deployed in all situations, Ladd experienced a bit of regression from 2010-11's numbers (29 G, 30 A, 59 PTS), although considering it was his assist total that regressed it might have been the luck of his teammates that took a little downturn. That said, this edition of the logbook will give us a good look at what a full-minutes forward looks like...
What Scouts Said About the 1988 Draft Class
I hate to throw out another of these on the impression that I'll have them all into the 1990s; admittedly, I only have the goods for this draft class and the previous one. The goods in question this time come from The Globe & Mail again, out of Saturday's edition June 11th, 1988.
Keep in mind that, because this is the sequel, it won't be nearly as good...kind of like the 1988 NHL Draft Class, except not really because (according to my measure of "success," aka 500+ NHL games) NHL teams batted .800 in the first 10 picks. Wowsers. In fact, 7 of the top 10 played 1,000+ NHL games. Ay carumba.
To quote Meet Joe Black, now you're going to pee some more: the #10 pick, Teemu Selanne, has played more NHL games than the following 11 picks combined. Apparently they didn't think too highly of 4th round picks Mark Recchi, Tony Amonte, or Rob Blake. No, they wanted Reggie Savage, Kory Kocur, and Winnipeg's own Kevin Cheveldayoff. The bums.
Oh, you're going to love what they said about Mike Modano and Jeremy Roenick...
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The NHL's Most Interesting Name Final Showdown: Zarley Zalapski vs. Peanuts O'Flaherty
And now, the big one. It was a meandering journey these many months, through the Fido Purpurs, Gord Kannegiessers, Espen Knutsens, and Cleon Daskalakis's of the league's history, but we're finally here. As you might have gathered, Peanuts O'Flaherty was victorious in his semifinal showdown with Fred Sasakamoose, and now faces off with the true Cinderella, Zarley Zalapski. You probably all know by now, but double Z's was omitted from the 1980s name list, but by popular request his candidacy was renewed for the 1990s, which he won quite convincingly. Can he complete one final upset, or is the undeniable intrigue of Peanuts O'Flaherty just that: undeniable?
Follow after the jump for the final bracket and the purpose of the vote.
Derek Zona Mocks the First Two Rounds of the 2012 Draft
He successfully breaks my heart by having Teuvo Teräväinen selected just before our 9th pick (by the Hurricanes), then having the Jets pick a defenceman, Jacob Trouba. Then he crushes me again with the 39th pick...
The Jets' Potential Draft Picks, 9th Overall 2012
Part of the reason I love this time of year are, obviously, the playoffs, but we also get a chance to see the various scout rankings for the upcoming draft. It's a bit of information that, with our 9th overall pick, we need to pay great attention to; those top 10 picks are the kinds of picks you build a franchise around, or at the very least they become important building blocks. Thankfully, we have the dogged work of guys like Derek Zona and Corey Pronman to help us with our analysis, Zona for his development of the Draft Consensus Top 100, and Pronman for the fact that he's one of the few draft analysts who generates his list with possession in mind and he's rarely hyperbolic in regards to potential. Please, please, please, do check out his Top 100 List and be sure to check in as he provides in-depth analysis of the picks. He should be the first guy you turn to for this stuff.
With Derek's and Corey's information available to us, I want to take a look at some of the guys who might be around for our 9th pick(using Derek's ranks). Then, using Corey's, I'll look at some guys of value who might fall to us there. In two later pieces, I'll look at our 39th and 70th picks as well.
What Scouts Said About the 1987 Draft Class
Sometimes, when you're farting around on the web you unearth a gem. This is one of those times.
A number of you might know I was snooping around for old pre-draft rankings for years before 1998. After a couple hundred clicks (and the good fortune of working at a university with access to a Lexis Nexus database) I was able to unearth truncated versions of the NHL's Central Scouting Bureau's scouting reports for the top 21 prospects in the 1987 NHL Draft, as reported in The Globe & Mail June 6th, 1987 (Saturday edition). That draft class featured a triumvirate of 500-goal scorers in the 1st round (Pierre Turgeon, Brendan Shanahan, Joe Sakic) as well as two defencemen who went on to play more than 1,400 games (Glen Wesley, Luke Richardson). No 1st round before or since can make that claim.
For each of the selections, I want to cherry-pick the quotes a bit and focus on the negative comments on players I consider a "success" (500+ games in the NHL), as well as the positive comments on those who played less than 500 games. I'll keep them in the order that CSB placed them.
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Jets' Powerplay TOI Charts: Season Progression, Forwards
Graham floated a pretty good idea my way a couple of days ago, concerning providing TOI charts with multiple players to provide a visual comparison of their usage. At that point in time, I took a look at my TOI data and realized two things: 1.) I didn't use my TOI figures the way I really wanted to (to that point), and 2.) there are a lot of different ways to show this information that could be helpful.
To the first point: I remembered the way I planned on showing TOI over the season when I started putting it together earlier this year (about February). Rather than the raw TOI figures, which tend to fluctuate a lot even when presented as moving averages, I should express the TOI as a percentage of the top TOI total from game to game. This is more important with 5v4 and 4v5 TOI figures, because the amount a team spends in either situation from game-to-game will fluctuate quite a bit, exacerbating any smaller fluctuations due to usage. So I switched that over, and then using my magic visual touch, I came up with these:
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The NHL's Most Interesting Name Final Bracket: (3) Peanuts O'Flaherty vs. (7) Fred Sasakamoose
Our second semifinal brings together a true Cinderella name in Fred Sasakamoose (the only opening round name to upset) and a very strong #3 seed in the cripplingly folksy-Irish name of Peanuts O'Flaherty. Can Sasakamoose manufacture another upset?
And just as importantly, what happened in our other semifinal, between double Zs and the venerable Reto Von Arx?
Pilot's Logbook 2011-12: Kyle Wellwood
The Pilot's Logbook looks at the performances of regular Jets players over the course of 2011-12, primarily through time on-ice and Gabe's player performance charts.
Kyle Wellwood is probably the most intriguing player on the roster, a guy who was signed for peanuts but established himself as one of the better forwards over the course of the season. That meteoric rise has to be kept in perspective in regards to time on-ice; he certainly earned significantly more ice time, but as we'll see it was rare to see him in a top-line role (perhaps to some people's, certainly my own, frustration).
Alexander Burmistrov Offered a KHL Contract
From Ak-Bars Kazan, the same organization he played in growing up. It doesn't really mean anything right now, except that I'm sure the team knows his talent, saw his playing time, and threw a dog a bone. Let's hope our management pays attention.
Pilot's Logbook 2011-12: Eric Fehr
The Pilot's Logbook looks at the performances of regular Jets players over the course of 2011-12, primarily through time on-ice and Gabe's player performance charts.
I'm going to betray the theme a bit here by bringing up Eric Fehr, if only because he's been a hot topic of conversation in AIH circles. There's a rich amount of division concerning his future value, but I think what Alex and I have frequently tried to convey is just how little ice time he received last year, and how that might have affected his contributions. Worth taking a look, I'd say...
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The NHL's Most Interesting Name Final Bracket: (1) Reto Von Arx vs. (4) Zarley Zalapski
"So I see you rolled your way into the semis..."
The Final Four are established, and now it's just a matter of setting up our championship. This time, the showdown is between a #1 still shaking from a scarily-close opening round bout with Dit Clapper and Double Zs himself. Zalapski has been going strong for awhile now, so this will not be an easy match for Reto.
Follow after the jump for the updated bracket, complete with the results of the #2 Larry Goodenough vs. #7 Fred Sasakamoose slobberknocker.
Pilot's Logbook 2011-12: Jim Slater
The Pilot's Logbook looks at the performances of regular Jets players over the course of 2011-12, primarily through time on-ice and Gabe's player performance charts.
Admittedly, there isn't a method to my madness here; I'm basically just looking at forwards first, and focusing on those that played most of the year first. Beyond that, it's catch-as-catch-can, though you can be sure I'll get around to some of the higher TOI guys soon. That being said, it's just as interesting to look at role players like Jim Slater and see just how consistently Noel actually used him in particular roles. Without further ado, A.C. Slater.
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Pilot's Logbook 2011-12: Nik Antropov
The Pilot's Logbook looks at the performances of regular Jets players over the course of 2011-12, primarily through time on-ice and Gabe's player performance charts.
The inaugural entry in our Pilot's Logbook will look at that polarizing beanpole, Nik Antropov. What to make of this guy? He never really had a solid place in the lineup, yet for an offensive guy we sure saddled him with a lot of shorthanded minutes. One thing was for sure: he wasn't going to get the kind of play and ice time that brought him a banner year in 2009-10 (76 GP, 24 G, 43 A, 67 PTS). So what kind of year did he have?
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The NHL's Most Interesting Name Final Bracket: (2) Larry Goodenough vs. (7) Fred Sasakamoose
The final matchup of the Elite 8 is here as a beacon of mediocrity names comes up against, well, Fred Sasakamoose. At this point in time, it's tough to make convincing arguments for or against any of the remaining "contestants"; they're all pretty equally awesome. Whomever of these two advances, they'll have to face a formidable opponent in Peanuts O'Flaherty, so I feel for them. But that's not the task at hand, so let's get to it...
After the jump, have a look at the results for the #4 Zarley Zalapski vs. #5 Jeff Beukeboom matchup, in addition to the updated bracket.
The NHL's Most Interesting Name Finals Bracket: (4) Zarley Zalapski vs. (5) Jeff Beukeboom
Some of you might remember that Zarley Zalapski, even though he's a 4 seed, was probably the longest shot of all of these names. I hadn't included him initially in the 1980s grouping (players are placed in the decade they began their career), and due to popular support I used my executive power to include him in the 1990s grouping. Much to my surprise, he won quite handily, and now we see him today up against a guy he might normally have wasted in the prelims. That being said, plenty of nostalgic Edmonton Oilers and New York Rangers fans will pull for Jeff Beukeboom, knowing so well how his play matched his name.
Follow after the jump to see the results of the last matchup (#3 Peanuts O'Flaherty vs. #6 Orland Kurtenbach) and get another viewing of the bracket.
The NHL's Most Interesting Name Final Bracket: (3) Peanuts O'Flaherty vs. (6) Orland Kurtenbach
Our opening round 1v8 matchup was very close, as Reto von Arx and Dit Clapper switched the lead a number of times before the final result. Now, we come to one of my favorite to win against a name I suspect was elevated by some enthusiastic Canucks fans. Whatever the reason, it comes down to this: Peanuts O'Flaherty, Orland Kurtenbach, and a 3v6 matchup. To see the results of the von Arx vs. Clapper showdown and the overall bracket, follow after the jump.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Winnipeg Jets Game Preview: We Gonna Rock Down to...Electric Avenue
Steven Stamkos needs 60 goals this year - Tampa needs him to score 60 goals this year. What else would they have, otherwise? Maybe it'll make Guy Boucher look a little less Putin-ish.
Obviously, this game doesn't mean a whole lot to the Jets, outside of the opportunity to tank and get a better pick. It's an unlikely scenario, but if we lose this game, and Carolina and Minnesota win, we'll be really close to being in the lottery! My lines are going to be all sorts of wrong so bear with me...
The NHL's Most Interesting Name Final Bracket: (1) Reto Von Arx vs. (8) Dit Clapper
It has come to this...Reto versus Peanuts, Beukeboom versus Sasakamoose...in other words, it's time to take off the gloves and vote for the NHL's Most Interesting Name. Using voting percentages to determine our rankings, here is our final Bracket:
Winnipeg Jets vs New York Islanders @ Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum Game Day Thread
Winnipeg Jets @ New York Islanders Game Preview: Will the Asbestos Affect Our Tank Battle?
The "Anatomy" of a Good Hitter
Moving into the second part of this pool of data, I wanted to take the same players I looked at in establishing "good" hitters (Part 1, Part 2; Part 1 has methodology) and observe the characteristics of the players within each of the percentiles. I was particularly interested in the possibility that we would see age, osize, hitting rate, or nationality (this will come in a later post) differences among this group, and among the percentiles. Granted, there are a number of explanations for these differences, including tendencies of line deployments for younger players and the fact that some European players that would normally only serve on the 3rd and 4th lines choose to stay in Europe. That said, it's still interesting to see how this plays out...
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