I'm hanging on every word from passing camp. Of course, its way to early to accurately determine what players will surprisingly come out of camp as starters, what changes will be made to the offense, what changes will be made to the defense, etc., but I'm chewing on every comment trying to draw conclusions.

What surprises are you starting to expect or hope for? Who do you see making the big leap in McD's second year? What scheme changes will bring another Bronco player into the national spotlight?

I've been really trying to read between the lines on this quote from McD:

"We've made some definitive efforts to try to move the ball downfield a little bit. We're going to put some emphasis on some of those things and in the running game we're going to use a little bit more two-back sets. You saw (Broncos ILB/FB Spencer) Larson and (Broncos TE Marquez) Branson back there taking most of those reps at the fullback spot. We're still going to be spread out and do some of the things that we've done before and we go through an evaluation every spring and come up with some new things. We watch some other teams that have been successful doing other things and we've liked some things and feel like we've got some personnel that can do some of them."

 I'm reading three potentially new threads. First, we are gonna spread the field vertically more often. Thank you, we definitely could have done that more often last year. Second, we are gonna use more two back sets. What are the personnel implications of that though? Third, we may be taking some stuff from some other teams where it suits our personnel. Also interesting. What does this all mean?? Nothing really. Last year about this time McD was fawning over Hillis' versitility and look where that ended up, right.

For true Bronco fans though, we can't wait for the season. We can't help but imagine how, who, what will be the big surprise this year.

Here are my three big wags (wild a$$ guesses) at what/who will be surprises for the Broncos (I'm purposely avoiding any QB comments here):

1) I think Chris Baker could really surprise some people as an interior DL. I think we could see him the most at the 5 technique which would be even better because it means we have some real depth inside. The potential was always evident, they kept him on the roster all year last year, and Nunnely certainly put time in to improve him. While we know nothing for sure, I like the way the Broncos have handled him. His performance will be a real example of McD's philosophy that "talent", as termed by the "experts", may be just a tinsy tad bit overrated in the NFL.The most important thing is development and coaching (instilling belief along with capability). (Note: This doesn't mean talent is not important, it means the differences in talent is slight and coaching, "good" coaching, can make up for it.)  

2) I think Marquez Branson must be instilling confidence in the coaching staff. I think he could become a real multi-dimensional threat. I looked at his pre-draft stats here and compared them to top TEs here. He compares favorably in speed to Dallas Clark, Shockey, and this year's Gresham. He is only 6'2", but that frame may give him an extra dimension lead blocking out of the backfield. The lack of a draft pick at TE or a speedy TE or FB UFA along with McD's plans for two back sets could mean he is a stud waiting to explode. I'm hopeful here. Its also inconceivable that Larsen, Mr. Versatility (ST, LB, FB) and injured most of last year would be expected to contribute heavily to a new playbook scheme at FB. Not that he couldn't, but this scenario speaks ions about the coaches' opinions of Branson, IMO.

3) I really like Alphonso Smith and Robert Ayers chances of breaking out this year. First, I think the scheme kept them from making plays last year. I don't have much to go on with this opinion, I'll admit.Thats why its a wag; however, scheme has huge effects on personnel, especially first year personnel. The most important thing is I think these players have talent and both have media labels as "busts". This type of scrutiny can only motivate and inspire. My other reasons for giving them the benefit of the doubt are the complexity of the scheme for the OLB/DE position, which Ayers was completely new at, and the whole vision coverage scheme along with Smith's injuries and time in the slot. These things don't mean much, but if the new Wink scheme fits these guys better and they have prepared to bounce back.......watch out!

I'd love to hear some other expectations or hopes for different personnel/schemes in 2010. I hope you'll focus on a position other than QB though. Thanks......Go Broncos!!!

Here are the teams that potentially took long looks at what I consider the best LB in the draft.

From J.Chaney, MSU Pro day recap on Natl Fball Post:

The Cincinnati Bengals and the Raiders sent their linebackers coaches to the workout, which was also attended by the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts, St. Louis Rams, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens

Well Indy, Baltimore, and NE represent 3x of the best personnel offices in the league. I think the NYGs do pretty well also. I wish we had someone there.

Here is the list of private workouts so far:

QB- Tony Pike
WR- Marty Gilyard
C- Matt Tennant
OL- Valdimir Ducasse
C- JD walton
RB- Toby Gerhart
RB/WR/KR- Dexter Mccluster
RB- Montario Hardesty
WR Arrelious Benn
DE Jared ODrick
CB Alterraun Verner
NT Terrence Cody
DE/OLB Koa Misi
NT Terrel Troup
WR Jacoby ford
LB sean weatherspoon
WR Damian Williams
C/G Joe Hawley
C/G Maurkice Pouncey
CB Kareem Jackson
WR Dez Bryant

I really would like to know what Pro Days we attended. I haven't seen too many notes about our scouts being around. This means nothing and is not an attack on McX, but some of these workouts don't make sense to me. Now, I've read some good posts that try and make sense out of this workout list, but I'm starting to ask some questions.

First, why the heck on earth was Dez Bryant brought in for a workout? If all the stuff we talk about are principles for Denver when it comes to team building, then a look at his pro day is enough.

Second, if you're looking at OL (beyond OC) and true LBs, why only look at Ducasse and Wspoon? There are a couple guys similiar to these that could be good fits. While going deep into C/G prospects with Hawley, why no depth into LB prospects?

Look, I love Chaney, but I think we could be missing the boat on any and all LB prospects. Did we get to alot of pro days for LB? Did the change at LB coach (Wink went to DC) affect us?

I;m looking for any answers here, because I'm starting to think we have a lapse in the personnel department. Even if the plan is for someone like Larsen or Haggan to step in, we should be looking hard at interior OL (we obviously are, but primarily OC prospects) and ILB in the draft. I don't see it.

Thewes are you sneaking around this site?? I want some answers buddy. Get McD on the phone and lets get X on point on this.....Thewes, Thewes, you hearing me??

Well it looks like one of the lessons Shanny learned from his year off coaching and league wide traveling was the first lesson that McD and Xman instituted right off the bat.......increase competition!

Here is the link:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=Aiya7WlKv5FjhTr5Dpgft6xDubYF?slug=nfp-campbell_portis_will_have_to_earn_starting_jobs_html-2010325&prov=nfp&type=lgns

Looks like no one gets a free pass anymore. As we talk about trends, I think its easy to see, IMO, why this has happened. The parity between players and teams has led to a true...."any given Sunday", environment. Teams like Car and Tenn, who performed like beasts two years ago, probably lost their edge last season. Their teams were exactly the same and performed well in stretches, yet they ruined the season in the beginning. Why??

Because attitude, focus, approach, and a player's mental approach prove just as important as some of the other tangible things. The best way to improve every player's focus is tell him nothing is guaranteed. You gotta compete!! A good reason why you only pay money to character guys (tip to McD/X) and not any high priced free agent looking for $$$.

Another sign that relying on the McBeans, Frys, Haggans, and others of the NFL will reap dividends. And we can guess that the Schefflers, Marshalls, and probably Hillis don't totally see it this way.

Unbelievable?? How is no one talking about this guy. He'll definitely be around in the 2nd round.....what a monster!!

Jamar Chaney out of Mississippi St.

Here is a site to see how he tested out for NFL scouts:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/TSX/2010_ILB

Here is to see his tape:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LMZmeY-kgo&feature=related

I'd love to hear some comments on this guy, but he looks like a beast to me. Against the run you have to watch the highlight at the 2:00 mark. He stops a blocker and runner by himself at the 1yd line. Unbelievable! He goes up against Ciron Black from LSU a couple times too. Bottom line.....he's way to quick, but also strong enough to get leverage and hold up if needed. I'm sure someone has talked about him, but this dude is a monster. Sorry if I missed those posts from before.

The real reason he is off the radar screen though was a broken leg in 08. So this is his first year back.....looks good to me!

Check it out....hope to hear some feedback.

After commenting on Quinn vs. Orton, I noticed a lot of comments that harped on how difficult McD's system is to learn. One interesting comment was that Brady said it was incredibly difficult. The problem is we're missing something when we apply that logic.

Let me make an analogy.....Math. We have to learn geometry, then we can learn algebra, then calculus, then theoretical functions (not even sure if this is a math subject; doesn't matter). The point here is that each one is a little bit different, yet they build on one another based on certain principles. The fact that one person does well in the basic levels does not assure success at a higher more difficult level. The fact that one person struggled at the basic level does not necessarily mean he will struggle in a higher level. The basic concepts may just come more slowly. While the latter (struggling at a basic level) should raise concern, people respond differently to different subjects, different ways of learning and take different amounts of time to comprehend. The crux of success in all these "math" subjects relies on the person's aptitude for a "mathematical" way of thinking and the quick, solid grasp of the core fundamentals of how math works. They kinduv go hand in hand. Certainly hard work can overcome aptitude and aptitude without the right intangibles can mean nothing.

How does this relate? Look, McD's system has certain principles that are required to operate it at every level. Has McD broken out the Calculus problems yet. I highly doubt it. If, when, Tom Brady is saying the system can take years to learn he is really commenting on the depth of the system, not the difficulty. McD is not giving Tom Brady or any QB a play or situation that is too difficult. In fact, he is feeding in baby size quantities. We clearly saw this with Cassel in '08. The guy had been in the system for a couple years, but when he started playing the system became a H.School version. There is no difficulty in that. The difference between McD's system and other systems goes back to the Paige interview early last year. If you remember, McD pridefully noted how thick his playbook was and how difficult and complex his ideas, schemes were/are, even noting there are some schemes that have never been seen.

This type of "difficulty" and the difficulty and challenges that Orton experienced are most likely two different things. Early in the year, when McD is exasperatingly saying, "no more my bad, make the play," he is showing frustration with Orton's inability to grasp and execute basic concepts. These are things he has gone over and expects success from his pupil on. I felt like this kind of reaction from McD occurred all year at different points.

What does it mean? Well, when we have gone out and picked up Quinn, it means McD may be seriously worried about Orton's ability to grasp, demonstrate proficiency in the basic decision-making & reaction requirements necessary to operate his system. Certainly Orton could be one of those learners that takes more than a year, but this is really, really unlikely. Certainly, Orton also showed that even at 80% of the requirements McD seeks, he can win games and lead this team far, even very far (everybody remember Dilfer/Grossman; he's far better on every level).

This is exactly why I expect Quinn to start. Quinn has demonstrated, when not under immense pressure (he was mostly), to be excellent in reading and making decisions. His time at ND demonstrated this as well. The fact is that the Cleveland Off and the coaches did not mesh with him, nor did he have the weapons to take pressure off him doing everything. The other factor is his arm is better. Notice I don't say stronger. Strength is a tricky topic and I want to avoid using that word. In more limited time than Orton, I thought Quinn made far more throws down the field in coverage (I don't count the Redskin TDs here).

I want to note that this potential competition has very little to do with the difficulty of the system, but the aptitude and foundation of each of these QBs as football players. At this point, very little is gonna change for these guys. They've been playing and doing this stuff for years. They are maxed out on their aptitude/talent. Their success will be based on the system, situation, and coaching. I had very high hopes for Orton last year. I was disappointed. This year, I have high hopes for Quinn. We've seen Orton and nothing is changing from last year. That is not necessarily bad. However, we could have someone that surpasses that because the change in system, situation, and coaching offer an excellent opportunity for seeing how far Quinn can go. I'm pretty sure after watching the Browns that we have definitely not seen that. Either way, it is only reason for optimism at the start of this next year.

Finally, I can begin to feel optimistic about watching the Denver offense again. I enjoy it even more to hear people say ridiculous things about Brady Quinn having blown his chance and being a solid backup QB.....especially the media. Thats when I feel things are gonna turn out even better than I expect.

The quote, "stop telling me (McD), my bad and just make the play," by McDaniels, sums up how I feel about Orton. He has a lot of strengths and can certainly start in the NFL, but he brings some weaknesses as well. While he isn't a QB that deserves much criticism, he also doesn't deserve much praise. I just got tired of feeling like the offense was gonna stall at any point. While Orton doesn't deserve all the blame, I think McD's offense heavily relies on the QB to read and react. This is just not an area where Orton has demonstrated excellence, in my mind.

So what nutball thinks Quinn has demonstrated these attributes? Well, I watched Quinn in the USC v. Notre Dame game his senior year without much of an opinion of him. When he led N. Dame on the late TD drive, I accepted that he was a stud QB. That kind of pressure, bright lights was one of a kind and he performed with precision as he was in a zone. He has played well in the pros, but has also struggled. What should this tell us? Well, when I watched Cleveland's offense last year, it was obviously devoid of any playmakers and its line was marginal at best. The Off. Coord was in his first year ever and they appeared to run a system offense (similiar to our offense; it was an ex-NE coach). I thought Quinn showed great decision making and Cleveland was in most of the games he started at halftime. The Browns always collapsed and as the offense struggled, Quinn probably was carrying too much pressure with too little help. I am confident that McD will not be putting him in that situation. Why? Because the guy knows how to help his QB succeed.

Quinn is no longer driving a beat-up Chevelle. He's gonna be in a high end Mercedes. Orton showed that he paces himself regardless of the vehicle. Quinn has the tools to drive this offense to where McD wants to take it. Quinn also has serious intangibles.

Quinn will start soon. This eliminates the need to draft a QB. The whole move says little about the other QBs except Orton..... He just needs to make the play and if he couldn't last year, despite winning some games, then he will not this year. Put your hands together for the new starter, Brady Quinn!!!!

I can't pretend any longer. Every time I think about the Broncos offseason and potential moves, I keep looking over my shoulder and thinking about THEM.....the enemy.....KC. Specifically, the mind games and counter moves that appear to be going on between these two teams as they attempt to build franchises on a similar model.

Last offseason we had the Cassel trade, then Vrabel, then the FA pickups, then the 6/7th round trades for NE backups. In my analysis at least half of the actions by both teams (KC/DEN) were taken or considered with respect to the OTHER team following the "NE Way" in the division.

Did this stuff leak into the games when some in KC thought McD ran the score up in the first win?? Did it give KC a little extra to play for in the end of season finale?? I don't know, but I am concerned about how this will affect things going forward. If it isn't a distraction to the front office, then I can at least say its a HUGE distraction to this fan.

It brings me to this whole idea about the "NE/Belichick/McD Way" thing. First, I think you always should begin with some kind of model or strategic goals for anything. Second, as you get into execution, the crux of that model doesn't necessarily have to change, but the objectives, operations, and tactics will need to evolve. The evolution comes from making the best out of what you have and going forward with a focus on "winning". If your primary focus is to remake something then its possible to miss opportunities that exist outside your "remodeling plan".

I'm not making any judgments, but I think this past year has left many opportunities for us all to evaluate McD in these areas. While I think McD clearly understands these things and communicates them, decisions and actions don't always have the result we intend.

This year, I just hope a strong coherency in decision-making is demonstrated AND some clear adaptations based on personnel, opponents, coaching, etc. that lead to more victories in the end.......because, in the end, like McD, thats all I care about.

Love to hear what you think!

It seems like every week the Denver Broncos have hurdled another obstacle left in place from their tumultuous offseason. It seems to be playing out like a storybook. In Week 1, many fans wanted McD and his faux arrogance put into place. This new Denver team was no good. Even, no wait, especially, our own Denver Post writers, the home of the fan base, wanted us to refuse to believe.......The result was held in suspense until the final seconds and for those who believed our faith was justified..

In week 2 & 3, every Bronco-hater was waiting for last year's inconsistency, a slip against a weaker opponent, anything to demonstrate the need for McDaniels to placate and pamper his players to victory. They were certain his leadership was all wrong. The Broncos continued their winning ways with no individuals to promote and no clear strength to demand respect.

In week 4, the skeptics hoped that McD and this "fluff" team would be brought to its senses by "true" NFL star power and talent. The Broncos stood firm and displayed their toughness, physicality, and resilience. By the end, every fan could see McDaniel's reason for "tough love" and how it transformed one of our own lost superstars.

So is the story over? The Broncos stand "born-again" as a new team ready to move forward, right? Have we excised all the demons from the offseason? Not so fast. The story, our walk, has only just begun. I see this week forcing us to confront more demons, deeper scars. OUR faith, even the team's faith, may be tested. Of course, this is the way a walk of faith always goes. You never completely arrive. There is always something more to learn about yourself and your identity.

So, who seeks to attack our faith and how? Arguably, I believe we have demonstrated some weaknesses in the passing game. I am of the strong opinion that Belichick, in his strategy to defeat this team, will focus his efforts on the run game and forcing Kyle Orton to win the game. The stage is set for a beautiful act where the lights will shine on Orton. This is exactly the way that Belicheck develops strategies and I hope for the sake of Denver and the Broncos he is successful.

What? Why? Because we are still hounded by one question and one doubt that still threatens to weaken our solidarity and belief both as a team (I speculate) and as a fan base.

For fans: Why did we trade Jay Cutler? Are we a better team without Cutler? If only we had kept Cutler, we would have both this "great" defense and a "franchise QB"? A certain Super Bowl contender, right?

For the players: How much pressure can the defense handle? Can we rely on Orton "to carry" the team on offense if we need it?

I know how I and, I imagine the players, would answer those questions, but every week these questions will be presented and performance on the field must answer them. On the field of play, performance speaks for itself. At this point, I have been let down by Kyle Orton. No, not because he doesn't do enough to win, because he obviously does. I have been let down because I had far greater expectations. All last year, I was surprised by Chicago. I didn't understand how they won. When we traded for Orton, I started to research last year. The guy was a stud. I don't believe in the limitations he is given or his "weak arm". I thought for sure he would become a superstar right away. There has been injury and he needs to learn the system. The fact remains, he has not "carried" this team to victory, yet.

Yes, we could become the Baltimore Ravens of 2000 and win a SB with a superior "D". However, that would not satisfy me. I have developed so much faith and belief in this team that I just KNOW we are capable of anything and everything. I also have faith in Kyle Orton and believe he can still be the player I envisioned. I don't think there should even be an argument. Kyle Orton IS better than Jay Cutler.

Here is the test Denver fans and players: This week when the pressure mounts on Orton, will we believe? Will we stand firm in our faith? Will we recognize that something special is happening and redemption will come this week just as it did the last few weeks? It may all depend on OUR belief.

I'll be rooting hard this week, not just for a Bronco victory, but for another demon to be excised as our team redeems itself......in a manner that the fan base can come together and stand with the Broncos in FULL faith and allegiance....in a manner that the team's weaknesses are challenged, causing the team to become stronger and never complacent....in a manner that causes even Woody Paige to feel compelled to eat crow and call this Bronco team the "real deal".

Thought I'd share my thoughts for this week......Happy rooting!!!

I love to talk about the emotional and the mental side of the game......I also love to identify and pick underdogs or under-respected teams, players, whatever.

Week 4:

AFC West:

KC is in a perfect spot against the NYGs this week. For those that only look at the play and strategy of each team, the NYGs are a lock. I really expect KC to play tough here. Not only are they going against NY at home (in a very tough place to play), benefit from the "who do we fear on this team?" syndrome that NY will find it hard to defeat, and from Haley's prowess as an offensive guru. Haley started sticking with the run late in the Phi game, despite the score......what does that mean?? Well it could be a lot of things, but based on how poor the protection was, I expect he conceded that he did not prepare his team to protect well enough for the Phi blitz. I expect KC to be fully prepared this week. The offense only now coming together is conceivable based on Haley's poor organization and the OC fire. The NYGs are notorious for laying eggs against poor opponents. I blame Coughlin and expect to see his dry "nuts & bolts" coaching leave the team lackluster for this week.

OAK....now I don't think OAK can truly beat anybody because the cohesion and team synergy are not there. How can they be? Competition really doesn't happen amongst players on this team and the coaches don't hold the final say. For some reason though, I think this team has a little more than people give it credit for (close games against KC and SD). HOU is about a good a matchup as they can get and it comes after an AFC West thumping by us......If JaMarcus can't manage to be focused for this game and pull something off....along with McFadden, then this team is already starting its nosedive

SD.....is, as everyone says, the best team in the AFC West??? No, SD is a team that is carried by who I consider the best QB in the NFL. They will be in every game no matter what. I think they will give us fits too. PITT is so ripe to get beat here though. They have been surprised the last two weeks, but I don't think that surprise has sunk in. They still think they are really good....defending CHAMPS, right! They aren't....good talent, but its obvious they are missing the focus and killer instinct this year. I am going to enjoy watching Tomlin coach under fire. SD can pull this out and I hope they do. It will give them big heads and the media will be hypeing them way beyond their level of play.

To include Denver, this could be an AFC West sweep week. I know, its the weakest division, but that stuff is way overrated at this point. I like the positions of all these teams and their opponents (overconfident). We'll see how it plays out.

PLAYER TO WATCH:

Josh Johnson......I hear Morris, his own coach say, "he's my Jason Garret"......What?? Why play him then? Lets get to Freeman. The reason is this guy can be good....in fact, I think great. Read up about his play in college. I don't wanna hear about the competition. Its like the Broncs domination (well on D at least) of three bad teams....its still domination. He looked very good last week in a series vs. the NYGs. They blitzed him twice and he picked 'em up and made great decisions. He should have had a TD, but his WRs were surprised someone could get the ball down the field. 

Jim Harbaugh coached this guy in college and said he was a top D I talent.....Why is he playing?? Because the OC, Olson, knows he's good and he gives TB a chance to win now...someone wake up Morris so he can stop telling other NFL coaches, "We just wanna grow up and be like you....good!" WHAT??? It is too bad Johnson is in this situation. I expect him to play great against WAS and for the season. TB is terrible though.

Enjoy the games!!!

@DEN vs CLE; DEN is favored by 3; I think this will be a very tough game. I watched the CLE/MINN game and if Favre is not on MINN, then CLE wins. CLE is a tough team that wore down against a very good team in MINN. CLE played like last year's team. After a couple calls and drives stalled, they just started to wear out.....they lost belief. They will start to perform to their potential when they shake the stigma from last year's team. This requires pulling out a tough win. If Quinn does it, even better. The NEW identity will be set and they will start to challenge for the AFC North.

This is a game between two future playoff teams....don't tell the MSM. It will be a tough fought game and the winner has the potential to really start to hit a stride.....especially if the victory is close. When teams are pulling out close wins, then belief just soars. These teams are deciding their identity for the year in these early games. Right now DEN has the advantage and I hope they keep it....I'm of course rooting for DEN all the way!!

@KC vs OAK; KC is favored by 3. This is a standard spread for a home team. I don't think either team has found an identity despite their surprisingly tough performances in Week 1. OAK was getting abused by the MSM prior to the SD game. I think that abuse and the absolutely pathetic preseason performance, especially towards the end, caused them to reconsider their approach going into Week 1. I think they played well and SD was not prepared. If OAK already thinks they are a tough team, KC will punish them. They have to play like they have something to prove. The longer this game stays close the greater the chance KC wins........I like Haley to pull this victory out big or small.

@NYJ vs NE; NE is favored by 3.5. I like Ryan as a coach, but doesn't he know that his father's demeanor was what kept him from being a "great" head coach. This is a great spot for NYJ to surprise NE. Instead, Ryan has his whole team talking smack to a "proven" NE team. It just doesn't make any sense. The NYJ never played NE scared the last several years.....what's the benefit here?? The result is Ryan has added tons of pressure to Sanchez, who Belicheck will cook up a difficult scheme for (I think it will be heavy on 8x man pass coverage). NE wins handily (may be a close score)

@WAS vs STL; WAS is favored by 9.5. This is a great spot for STL. WAS is a team of talent with no focus or cohesion. Its hard to build a team when D. Snyder makes his coach apologize for being the HC and making decisions (like benching a whining Portis). WAS will have little respect for STL going into this game just like everyone else. STL really struggled against the pass in Week 1, but Campbell can't really pass. Besides, Spags knows WAS very well. I expect him to have his team ready in a game that STL will fight hard to avoid meeting everyone's expectations. STL covers easily and could win.

PITT vs @CHI; PITT is favored by 3; Wow, no respect even @ home for CHI. There is no QB in the NFL with more pressure on than Jay Cutler. Everytime he says last week was no big deal, he actually makes the pressure worse. I'm sure everyone has seen someone who deals with pressure by not dealing with it. WR scramble assignments aside, it is going to take a very strong hand by Lovie Smith to avoid disaster in this game. Chicago must run the ball and take the pressure off Cutler. He shouldn't throw a pass in the first quarter. Let him get a feel for the game and keep the calls simple. If he gets pressure on him, its gonna be INT after INT after, etc. If Forte doesn't rush over 30 times, then CHI loses, probably big.

IND va @MIA; IND is favored by 3; Pennington failed MIA in Week 1. They need better QB play. He rarely plays poorly two games in a row. IND is not the same IND. This year will not be like the last several. They were really lucky to beat JAX at home last week. MIA's D is gonna bring the wood to Manning. Expect some fireworks. MIA is one of the best trained, toughest football teams in the NFL. This is their TEAM mentality.They will challenge IND from the beginning and I expect IND to falter in responding....its not business as usual. IND needs to find its NEW identity. MIA wins at home and roughs up IND.

I've done a poor job communicating why I like to emphasize the emotional aspect of teams and players when it comes to performance. I've had some good back and forth with several people, but I have been searching for something to clarify my position. I finally found it and I'll reference the information below.

I feel strongly about communicating the significance of the emotional aspect because whenever there is lots of analysis on tactics, strategy, and skill sets we begin to lose respect for the emotional side. While tactics, strategy, and skill are significant, they are less significant in outcomes than the emotional condition of a team or player. We tend to analyze tactics, strategy, and skill sets more because they are things we can observe and critique the easiest.....as observers of the NFL. However, as Seth Godin will point out below, these things are not the most important aspects of SUCCESS. I am grafting Godin's notion of "attitude & approach" as the foundation to what I have tried to argue is the "emotional" aspect of coaches, teams, and players.

The difference in a team's emotional state, both game to game and for the season, are things that separate playoff teams from mediocre teams, great teams from playoff teams, etc. The COACH and all most completely the Head Coach has the responsibility for this aspect of every team. Consequently, the Head Coach's emotional state is a significant factor on his team's performance......His attitude and his approach become the team's attitude and the team's approach. Singletary is hammering this home with SF....as is Norv Turner with SD (see my post HERE about SD's future). Sometimes players with significant personalities can take this on (Ray Lewis, P. Manning, and yes, J.Cutler). From game to game, because of the emotional side, any team can beat anyone on any given Sunday. The inverse is also true that teams that should lose in a given week (ie. Pittsburgh, NE, SD (I give Rivers credit for these victories)) find ways to win because of the attitude and approach of their players and their coach......it starts all most always with the coach though. 

I believe that McDaniel's approach and his attitude are what will determine our success this year. I think those aspects of his leadership are already coming through after just one game......physicality, resiliency, preparedness, fighting for respect.....certainly there are players that are demonstrating these traits as well. Hopefully, we will start to see more and more players exhibiting these traits and belief. For this reason, a new coach turns over a roster. The indians have to be willing to follow the chief to make success a possibility. We have far more pieces in place and a coach (of only 33) far more prepared than many people realize.

HERE is the link to Godin's blog and the stuff below is only just below the entry at the top of the page. I highly recommend reading Godin's blog.....this guy has phenomenal insight about the world today, ideas, leadership, people, etc. A well published author as well. Lombardi mentions him often.....I highly recommend reading Lombardi's notes, especially, Sunday at the Post HERE as well. Mucho props to nycbroncos for his work each morning because if it was not for HIM and MHR, I would never have found these great information resources.

The hierarchy of success

I think it looks like this:

1. Attitude
2. Approach
3. Goals
4. Strategy
5. Tactics
6. Execution

We spend all our time on execution. Use this word instead of that one. This web host. That color. This material or that frequency of mailing.

Big news: No one ever succeeded because of execution tactics learned from a Dummies book.

Tactics tell you what to execute. They're important, but dwarfed by strategy. Strategy determines which tactics might work.

But what's the point of a strategy if your goals aren't clear, or contradict?

Which leads the first two, the two we almost never hear about.

Approach determines how you look at the project (or your career). Do you read a lot of books? Ask a lot of questions? Use science and testing or go with your hunches? Are you imperious? A lifehacker? When was the last time you admitted an error and made a dramatic course correction? Most everyone has a style, and if you pick the wrong one, then all the strategy, tactics and execution in the world won't work nearly as well.

As far as I'm concerned, the most important of all, the top of the hierarchy is attitude. Why are you doing this at all? What's your bias in dealing with people and problems?

Some more questions:

• How do you deal with failure?
• When will you quit?
• How do you treat competitors?
• What personality are you looking for in the people you hire?
• What's it like to work for you? Why? Is that a deliberate choice?
• What sort of decisions do you make when no one is looking?

Sure, you can start at the bottom by focusing on execution and credentials. Reading a typical blog (or going to a typical school for 16 years), it seems like that's what you're supposed to do. What a waste.

Isn't it odd that these six questions are so important and yet we almost never talk or write about them?

If the top of the hierarchy is messed up, no amount of brilliant tactics or execution is going to help you at all.

There are many ways to look at this and probably many good arguments against my application of this "hierarchy" to the game of football and coaching. I welcome your comments and, as always, I love to hear from different opinions. It is in discussion and disagreement that I learn both about my ideas and my ability to communicate them.

MYTH: When a new coach comes to town, sometimes it takes a little while before things begin to look up.....No, no it does not.

Starting in 2004, lets review the last several years of coaching change in the NFL.

2004: 7 coaching changes occurred; within 2 yrs Coughlin, Gibbs, Lovie Smith, and Jim Mora had taken their teams to the playoffs; one (Mora) to the AFC Championship in his first year..... 4/7 were a success.

2005: 3 coaching changes occurred; all three coaches are now fired

2006: 10 coaching changes occurred; 3 coaches had their team in the playoffs within 2yrs and a 4th reached the playoffs in his 3rd yr; two (Mangini & Payton) reached the playoffs in their first year, two (Payton & McCarthy) reached the NFC Championship within 2yrs.....Childress reached the playoffs only last year...... 4/10 were a success

2007: 7 coaching changes occurred; within 2 yrs Tomlin, Whisenhunt, N.Turner, and W. Phillips have all reached the playoffs, two were in last years SB, one (Norv) went to the AFC Championship his first yr.... 4/7 were a success

2008: 4 coaching changes occurred: within the first year Smith, Sparano, & Harbaugh all reached the playoffs, one reached the AFC Championship.... 3/4 were a success

In 2009, 11 coaching changes have occurred.....surprised?? If I was looking at the numbers above, I would be quick to pull the trigger on a new coach as well. 15 of 31 went to the playoffs within 2 yrs  Of course, in years where 10 coaches are hired, you have to expect a thinning of talent. I think this year's crop of coaches is extremely talented,

If you look closely at each year, other than 2005, a new coach has taken his team to the conference championship game in his first year. That is quite a stat,

Since 2004, in four of five years in the NFL, a brand new head coach led one of the four best teams.

Now a lot of factors lead to such a finish and certainly the HC does not deserve all the credit. Sometimes it can even happen despite the HC. This year, many reporters and pundits are calling last year an aberration. They say, "Don't expect that again!"

Every year since 2003 at least one team and many times more than one, go from worst to first. From '03-'07, the last place team won the NFC South division.....five years of worst to first in one division??

In the MSM, I only hear Indy and Seattle as potential division winners who have new coaches (safe bet, whudda thunk it?). Is it fair to assume that reporters and pundits are well-informed about all things football? Apparently not? In fact, I would argue that most of their time is spent creating story lines and avoiding real evaluation. Lets face it- real evaluation involves being a "true" student of the game and these guys make too much money to be students of anything. It also means your analysis will be critiqued and your success can be quantified. Under these circumstances, why stick your neck out from the crowd?

While considering the success rate above, what team has the best chance of success this year?

McD (Den)- It appears McD handled all coach hires. He seems to have hired with a focus on talent, length of experience, and experience in the AFC West, He has demonstrated a hands on approach that steers both sides of the football team. He inherits one of the best OLs in football, bought an experienced secondary, and has added leadership to his team. If the team has bought into his leadership, then the MSM story lines are only just that.

Haley (KC)- His organizational skills are suspect. If you want to succeed against the odds on day 1, you have to know what you're getting into. When you fire the OC, Chan Gailey, you should have a backup plan.....you can't just make yourself the QB coach, OC, and HC. Just getting into the situation strikes me as naive. I'm not sure how much he is ready to coach both sides of the football.

Cable (Oak)- Hanson's jaw, Al Davis, Heyward-Bey, Jamarcus Russell.......do we need to say more.

Schwartz (Det)- This is a completely new team. I wonder who has more personnel turnover Denver or Detroit? I can't say I know too much about what is going on here, but their personnel moves seem sound. I am overly optimistic primarily because this team has nowhere to go but up.

Spagnuolo (STL)- I love Spags.....in fact I think he was a critical piece to the NYG team. While it is not clear what type of team he inherited, he did not make many changes to the roster. Devaney and him have made tweaks, but it appears they are satisfied to progress slowly. I read on the STL website that bystanders were surprised when S.Jackson went down from his first hit in practice. They thought he would get upset.....a RB upset about a tackle?? Apparently TC was very light in STL the last couple years. This sounds like primadonna stuff though. Thank goodness then because Jackson did not get upset.....whew, good! I think Spags has more changes to the roster to make before the team culture changes though.

Morris (TB)- It doesn't make sense to fire Gruden and select a lower coach that grew up under Gruden. It appears the NFL "copycat" rule went a little too far. Morris is not Tomlin and TB is definitely not Pitt. I think Gruden was holding together a poor team.....It will be tough to beat 9-7 from last year.

Ryan (NYJ)- Ryan gets his players to play for him....Mangini gets his players to play through other methods. I think the new coaching atmosphere and additions on O and D could make this team tough to beat.

Singletary (SF)- This team just shows toughness on the gridiron. I can't help but believe the team is buying into Singletary's leadership. His QB and ILB (Willis) both seem extensions of his personality. The expectations are very low and I see a potential surprise.

Mora (Sea)- He is a proven winner, but the team is essentially the same as last year. The blame fell on the injury to Hasselbeck, but I think more issues exist. Expectation are high for a rebound.

Mangini (Cle)- He takes over a team who last year appeared to visibly struggle from lack of focus, unity, and belief. I can't think of a better coach to follow Romeo Crennel. Furthermore, this team won 10 games two years ago. They have talent....can Mangini get these guys to play? He has been successful in his first year with less talent (NYJ '06).

Caldwell (Ind)- A lot of coaching turmoil in the offseason. I think losing Meeks from the DC position will have more of an effect than people realize. This is not the same team it was in 2006. A lot of pressure on Caldwell, he is filling big shoes.

In my opinion, the key for the above teams to shock the NFL will be low expectations, some inherited talent, a dynamic leader that brings something missing to the team, and players buying into the coach's leadership. I think McD, Schwartz, Ryan, Singletary and Mangini demonstrate this potential. They are capable of taking their team far in the first year. 

Schwartz and Ryan's team will improve and could go very far.....its just so difficult to assess a team with a rookie QB. While last year showed promise for rookie signal callers, history doesn't give rookie QBs the same love as rookie HCs. I see potential, but am somewhat skeptical. The beauty of having a rookie under center is the expectations and pressure from the outside immediately go down. This is an important factor to beating conventional wisdom about your potential. The big requirement is that the QB can handle pressure. In that case, I like the NYJ's to finish better than Detroit.

Denver, SF, and Cleveland are my big surprises for this year. This may mean the playoffs, but it may mean only 8-8. No less than .500 win pct though.

Of course, it will be Denver in the AFC Championship game to continue the first year HC trend stated above. For me, the big questions are not about Denver's D and Clevland's QB. I wonder how much TENN, NYG, NE, BAL, and ARI will miss their old coordinators. The teams losing highly successful coordinators are the teams with question marks......but, these teams offer very few story lines....those are all in Denver.

What do you think of the rookie HCs?

I honestly started to get dizzy reviewing NFL seasons (they comprise two years), so let me know if I made a mistake on the coach stats.

There are plenty of rumors circulating. I think many teams could be positioning for BMarsh, recognizing that once a player does something like BMarsh did, he can't remain with that team. Its a shame though if the tactic is proven to work, but Denver has to worry about whats best for its season and not the NFL in general, right?

I was very surprised to see Cleveland listed as a team that requested O'Connell off the waiver wire. They have two QBs that are starter level quality (arguably mediocre to good) and Ratliff who Mangini knew prior to going to Cleveland and traded for already. It makes absolutely no sense to claim O'Connell off waivers unless they are looking to trade someone.

Who could that be??? Well it could be a Quinn/Anderson trade to another team and O'Connell adds depth, but that seems unlikely. Based on their lack of an elite WR, they could be looking hard at angles to get Marshall. O'Connell is a nice sweetner for any deal, considering how McDaniels likes his former pupils. I haven't heard any rumors linking Cleveland and Denver in trade talks, but this waiver claim will surely start raising eyebrows.

We'll see.....any thoughts??

Read source article on O'Connell waiver claim HERE.

I just watched McD's presser on suspending BMarsh. I'm no expert on reading body language, but McD looked so uncomfortable and almost looked to lack confidence. He's out of breath, looking around the room, stammering with words....This is not a critique on what Denver or McD are doing with BMarsh. I think McD and the organization are confident in the actions they are taking. It also appears they are moving ahead thoughtfully (with only the 2x wk suspension). I will mention two bits here....I am a huge McD fan and a kool aid drinker. Now, let me tell you what I get from this presser:

McD knows the team is getting into a difficult situation. At this point, it appears BM is the one that has to make the decision here. The Broncos are not going to trade him and they don't wanna waste their money on him. I think McD is uncomfortable because he normally can see a way out and a light at the end of the tunnel. He's smart and confident in his judgment. At this time, he can't find a solution he likes and this suspension is the best option. From the Cutler fiasco, there is added pressure. While still the right move in his mind, he doesn't wanna make a habit of throwing people overboard. Hence, the body language and discomfort at the presser.

Now you may not agree with some of that analysis, but the key is not in the details of the BMarsh issue. The key ingredient is that a variety of events both past and present are coming up against the hope for this year's Broncos.

I am gonna call this game against Chicago the biggest, most emotional game for Denver this season. Its early, big call I know, but it could be the one that means everything for the rest of the year. Why? No, not because Cutler is coming to town and McD wants to beat or prove anything to Cutler.

The reason is that this game will demonstrate how much this NEW Denver Bronco team has bought into Coach McDaniel's leadership.

From everything I've read, I think this team has bought in and is starting to see the light turn on. They can see what this new staff and "team" are capable of. It all hasn't come out on the field just yet........and in comes Jay Cutler and the Bears. If my sense is right, then the Denver team is about to explode on these guys. The emotional effect of hearing about all the drama, about criticism of the coach, criticism of the QB (someone else whose leadership I think most have bought into), criticism of the D, and, most importantly, the physical and emotional desertion by two keys to the OLD Denver football team.

My hope is that this locker room comes out to play BIG time..... for themselves, for the NEW DBroncos, for their coach, and to prove that two people don't make a football team. These are the kind of perfect storms where you get a gauge of a team's emtional reservior, so to speak....how deep does it go and can they tap it. I'll be rooting with you Sunday night.....lets see.....

First, the Bronco front office is on top of its game and working extremely closely with McDaniels. McDaniels has certainly created some sort of decision points, possibly around the preseason games, where if he fails to see something he wants, he institutes a plan of action. It means something I think most people at MHR following every McD move have recognized, this guy has a plan for everything and is not overwhelmed in his duties.

What makes this an even more interesting pick up is that McD is not only instituting plans, but is doing it in a manner that shows he is out-thinking and out-planning his opponents. He takes notice of his opponent's actions and develops counteractions immediately. What am I talking about?

See Lombardi's article about "10 moves" HERE. See his note about the Chiefs personnel strategy HERE.

The Chiefs played their hand on picking up almost any NE waiver wire release by taking QB Gutierrez and LB Redd earlier in the month. The Chiefs based on last year's record will continue to get dibs on every waiver wire pick up after STL and DET, atleast they have 3rd dibs. Lombardi notes how, after these pick ups, no one will get the chance to pick up an ex-NE Pats guy b/c Pioli is gonna take 'em. Well, McD didn't read Lombardi (maybe he did or Xanders did), but he did make sure he beat KC to the punch to fill a Denver need and ensure KC didn't gain good depth on their DL. It shows both recognition of what an opponent is doing and taking necessary counteraction.

Smith is looking like a cut for the Pats especially with Brace getting drafted so high, so a quality backup was most likely going right to our rival's roster. In fact, I bet the Chiefs already had a locker nameplate ready. While he may not be a starter, he certainly will add depth and, based on the talent in NE, my guess is he will play.

While we don't really know who gets the credit, we can get confidence that the Bronco's plans for this roster didn't stop after signing the UFAs. The plan is constantly developing, changing......like an ameoba!

I can't enjoy watching these preseason games, so MHR is my eyes and ears here. Just FYI if I say something that is way off the map. I've looked at the stats, highlights, comments and was really struck by one thing that worries me about McDaniels. Now, I am a huge McD fan. In fact, I am always critiquing him b/c I wanna pop the balloon on my lofty expectations. Here is the big question I keep posing:

As a first year HC, with tons of confidence in his scheming, where is he gonna be vulnerable?

Here is where my worry is:

He is gonna put too much emphasis on his "genius" and not enough on the Bronco's players. Here is what I mean. Sometimes, smart coaches are so smart, they overcoach and overscheme. Why? Because they put all the pressure for success on themselves. They think the answer is gonna be in their Xs and Os and calls. They didn't get the genius label for nothing right??

This is the type of mistake that really great coaches don't make. They learn to trust more in their players and they also learn to do everything based on the capabilities they have in place. They take things slowly and recognize the importance of the emotional, mental make-up of their team. Especially in football, these factors are crucial to success and confidence building that is required for teams to pull victory from defeat and stay confident regardless of the circumstances. Now I'm a big believer in coaching and that great coaching makes the difference in the NFL. Every coin has two sides though and a little balance is still required to recognize that players and the team are critical pieces.

My big concern after this preseason game is: How quickly will McD realize that he isn't gonna be "the one and only" to turn this Denver team around?

The talented roster, the improved defensive upgrades, the great assistant coaches, and the budding stars (some we know, some we are only projecting) are gonna be the ones that make Denver a success this year. He's gotta stop trying to show how smart he is. Who takes Woody Paige into their office and points out their big playbook, talks about doing things for the first time ever on offense in the NFL, brags about success in football, throws Orton to the wolves in preseason game 1, etc.

He's gotta learn this for Denver to reach its potential this year. The potential that many of us see. Unfortunately, these acts and this mindset are going to be tough for him to abandon. Why? Because he is a little bit under seige after the Cutler fiasco. He has reacted by sticking to his plan and focusing on basics which is great. He isn't invincible though. He's scared/nervous like any other first year coach is. This is it.....this is what he's been waiting for. Is he ready?

Josh, we all think you're ready. We all think Denver can surprise this year. We all know you are smart as heck. Many of us defend and agree with everything you're doing. Just make sure you don't forget to get out of the way. Let these guys turn this team around at their pace and their way. Josh, you may have to run the ball 40x every game to win.....no, not like an ameoba and just some weeks.....you may have to do it every week. Are you ready to keep it simple and do it.

You are??? Well why the heck are you throwing everything at Orton in the first damn preseason game. I know that pressure now can equal wins later, but were you at the scrimmage at Mile High? Did you hear the fans? How much pressure is too much?

You're smart, so I got confidence that you are gonna be learning from your mistakes quickly. Here is my advice.....start downplaying how smart you are, stop trying to build Orton by breaking him down, and let Denver's offense create its own identity at its own pace.

Thanks Josh! Here's to 13-3.....

First, I must tip my hat to chopperpilot for his/her excellent piece that reviewed NFL Champions through the stats. It really highlights the MSMs role in bloating the conventional wisdom that only the superstars or teams with special playmakers win SBs. Certainly the teams listed throughout the decade have some superstars and those teams may not have won without them. The facts from this post fed my view about what the most critical component of any SB team is......COACHING.

In my opinion, the critical thread amongst these teams with some avg off, some above avg def, etc. was that a legendary coach (in my opinion) was a part of that staff. I'll let the argument rage on about exactly who the legendary coach is/was, but these teams all can point to some special coaches on the sidelines.

NE's Belicheck is obviously one. I think the thing sometimes forgotten is that he labored as a coordinator for many years always with B. Parcells. Up until he won a SB himself, we was just a part of those Parcell's teams to the avg fan. After winning several, he now seems like the most critical ingredient to those Parcells' teams. What is so important about this point? The Head Coach always gets the glory (to a fair extent), but, especially in this decade of parity (I think in the past some teams may have won based on superstars?). The fact is, especially as I look at this decade of SB victors. there are several Coordinators that I think, while they may not be the best HCs, are legendary and played THE critical role in these SBs.

NEs Josh McDaniels is easily overshadowed out of this program. I believe Eric Mangini is as well. Why? Because these guys take/manipulate tactics and strategy to a level where above avg players become superstars. The verdict is still out on both, but there are so many signposts in their history up to this point, that to me it is a foregone conclusion that these coaches will be special. The fact that the MSM lambasts the Belicheck tree as being failed should be a sign of something (anyone that thinks Crennel or Weiss really grew up under Belicheck should get glasses).

Pitt Dick LeBeau and his 3-4 defense. The 3-4 is all the rage and this gentleman is one of the best DCs of all time. His presence on these past two teams demonstrates his importance in the first SB win. Many could claim that Cowher is the real legend based on the one SB victory. However, after watching Tomlin win a SB so early, I am convinced that LeBeau was the key ingredient to that team. I would also reference how Cowher had blown this opportunity in the past, prior to LeBeau, and almost made Big Ben choke the game because he was putting too much pressure on him.

Indy Tony Dungy. While everyone respects this man's character, I'm not sure his victory fits my view of the importance of tacticians and strategists coaching a team. I actually view his victory as one delivered by The Lord and a result of his faith, character, and will. I don't think Indy could have beaten SD that year and I can only imagine what was going on inside Dungy's heart post-victory after losing his son earlier in the year.

NYG Steve Spagnuolo; Spags was the coach that brought this team over a big hump that Coughlin creates with his "Les Steckel" team atmosphere (I'm stealing Lombardi's insights on coaching here). While I think J. Johnson and R. Ryan demonstrated that they had the X/O insight to go up against McDaniels, the NYGs had a lot of other pieces and Spags was critical in a run that beat out a tough NFC with top tier Os that year (Dal and GB).

TB credit here is tough for me. I actually give most of it to T. Dungy. This team and especially the defense was his. Kiffin and Gruden were also critical pieces to the foundation. My father has a very sound theory that when a first year coach takes over, the team is not completely his. The coach from the year before has a HUGE influence on the psyche of the players. The new coach can benefit if he brings something special that takes advantage of the mistakes of the last coach. For instance, Harbaugh in Bal get credit as a player's coach and his impact was huge b/c Billick, towards the end, had become too dictatorial. In Atl, the same theory could be applied. So, Dungy's character and will had made an impact, but it was Chucky's down and dirty, attacking philosophy that put them over the top.

This is the way I view the season and how it plays out. I like L. Coles quote about chess pieces on a board and guys like Mangini, Belicheck, LeBeau and McD are just moving 'em around. The success of these coaches (they haven't all arrived, but use the same approach) is possible because of the parity.

Two things based on this to look for this year. Cle vs. Denver. Mangini's Browns' are made up of ol NE assistants that approach the game like McD. Oh yeah, besides Denver, I really like Cleveland to have a great year this year. Also, the impact of going from a loosy, goosy, pampered practice to a McD practice.

I like Denver to win a SB this year and I've got those long odds someone already mentioned on another post.

I enjoy analyzing the NFL with a focus on the coaches. My other two posts addressed coaches and based on what I've read, MHR as a whole puts a lot of importance into coaching and leadership. I know we have a lot of coaches at MHR and their insights into the game are a reason I keep coming back.

I enjoy studying and analyzing leadership and organizations. so I'm gonna try and provide some insight into the situations facing our opponents this year with respect to their coaching leadership. This is the dominant information I go off to pick winners for the year. While talent is a big factor, I never view it as the most important factor. The season is too long, there are too many emotional ups and downs, too many injuries, too much talent on every team, etc. that its the leadership that separates those that make the playoffs and those that do not (I will acknowledge that sometimes great players as leaders are good enough to overcome weak coaches). I'm not arguing that the best coach wins, only that he has the biggest impact. So lets consider rigorously, the impact of, what I call, the most important part of each team.

I will try and do an analysis for several teams. I will do SD first because I really think positive predictions of a big season for them ignore their coaching problems. I also think they are a prime example of why "coaching" has the biggest impact

I will focus on the HC, OC, and DC (Head Coach, Off Coord, Def Coord). For those teams that have a HC that calls one side of the ball, I will treat that coach like the HC and OC/DC together (ie. for SD I am focusing on N. Turner for HC & OC). For each coach, I will explore their coachability, defined as Xs & Os with a strong focus on intellectual capability, their emotional impact, defined as their ability to get their players to play focused and hard, and their leadership, defined as everything else (ie. communication skills, organization, etc.). Where applicable, I may provide insight into the front office to explain some of my analysis.

Within these areas of focus, I will address historical facts, present an analysis of these past facts and current events, and finally make some predictions.

This will lack some of the details of the quality I enjoy reading here at MHR, but  I think it will give most something to consider.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: HC/OC- Norv Turner DC- Ron Rivera

Facts:

Turner was called in to replace Schottenhiemer after SD lost to NE in the '06 playoffs. SD had arguably the most talented team with LT at the top of his game. The team lost both its OC and DC to head coaching positions. There was a lot of change amongst the leadership. Turner's record as a HC is well below .500 winning pct. To his great credit, he was the OC for the Dallas dynasty of the '90s; however, for unknown reasons, he was not retained as HC there after Johnson's departure. Few players that have played for him will say anything bad about him. He appears to be a well-liked personality. He coached for 7x years in Washington (.454), 2x yrs in Oakland (.281), and now 2x in SD (.593) (win pct.).

SD finished the 2006 team widely acclaimed as the most talented team in football. They were favorites to win the AFC Championship before an upset by NE. For the start of 2007, their team was still regarded as the one of the most talented teams in the AFC and NFL.

Ron Rivera played for eight years ('84-92) with the Chicago Bears including an '85 SB win. In '96, he was a quality control coach for the Bears under D. Wannstadt. In '99, he became a LBer coach for the Philly Eagles. A position he held until 2004. In 2004, he joined the Chicago Bears and new HC Lovie Smith. Rivera's influences can be traced to Buddy Ryan (who he played for; not sure how much that translates though), Jim Johnson, and Lovie Smith. His background is heavy on the 4-3. When hired in Chicago as DC, he most likely would have had his first experience working in the Tampa 2. After three years and a SB appearance, his services were not retained. From '03 to '05, the Bears D improved from bottom of the NFL to the top D. In 2006, the Bears D lost some of its dominance, but was still a top 5 Defense. Rivera spent '07-'08, as the ILB coach for the SD Defense of DC Ted Cottrell using a 3-4 scheme.

AJ Smith has been the GM for the SD team since 2003. He is well known and respected as the Director of Player Personnel during the Buffalo "Glory Years" from '93-'00 that resulted in several SB appearances. He is largely responsible for the firing of Schottenheimer and the hiring of the new coaches before 2007.

Analysis:

What do players on this team really think about the leaders of this organization? This is the critical question and one that will play out over the course of the year for SD. I think on some level what I will write here is in the minds of the players on this team.

First, Al Smith, while the GM (less of a leader on the team than the organization), has created an atmosphere at the very top that appears highly critical, unloyal, and arrogant. When you fire a successful coach, cross words with the star player, and constantly put yourself out front you send some strong messages to your organization about what/who is important. In that, you can weaken its foundation and its faith in itself which surely holds everything together.

Second, Norv Turner has never proved anything, but mediocre, over his now 11 years of HCing. His best season was 10-6 in '99 until he went 11-5 in '07 w/ SD(remember this team was 5-5 at the midway and incredibly talented though). How can anyone expect that Turner can possibly make a team play better than its talent?

Third, Ron Rivera while demonstrating skill has not proven his own consistency, nor his ability to skillfully transition from one scheme to another. The Chicago teams and his performance there deserve recognition, but how do you not get retained after going to the SB. I may give Lovie Smith too much credit, but I have to believe something is missing. What could that something be?

Well, I just can't envision someone like Rivera being the sharpest tool in the shed. He seems a player's coach (as a former hard-nosed player) and an emotional spark. I can only project that Rivera was not on the same page as L. Smith in communication or coacing/play-calling philosophy. This could very well have been because of L. Smith as it could have been b/c of Rivera, but why did Rivera only land an ILB coaching position after leaving. Surely a better position would open up for someone of his "perceived" quality, especially as other coaches would know the true value of such a coach from word of mouth.

One of the problems may have been that Rivera came from the Eagles where he would have developed a strong base in the J. Johnson 4-3 defense. L. Smith instituted a Tampa 2 in the 4-3. Now this would probably lead to some challenges if the coach doesn't grasp all the nuances and personnel qualities required to utilize one system over the other. I can only imagine that this change could have been a factor. If so, then what is the impact of going from a 4-3 J. Johnson to a Tampa 2 to a 3-4 (all within 4 yrs)? I guess this makes sense as to why he became an ILB coach with SD and took time to adjust.

However, if we're really good at something or an expert in one area, don't we try to keep that as a base to achieve success in our work? Why has Rivera constantly put himself in a position where he can't rely on what I would call the foundation of his football knowledge (the J. Johnson 4-3)? He must really be a dynamic, intuitive coach that quickly grasps the nuances of different schemes and can put it all together to create a successful defense. He seeks the change to develop himself, maybe? The first thing I would do as DC (if I was R. Rivera) is start hiring all my old coaches that are 4-3 guys and start breaking the foundations of this arguably, very successful SD defense. (Note: Rivera has brought in his chums for Dline-Johnson, LB-Williams, and DBs-Wilks from Chicago to SD)

Alright, enough sarcasm. Lets talk coachability, emotional impact, and leadership.

Coachability- Certainly Turner and Rivera have distinguished themselves in the NFL as assistants that were successful. They know their stuff, but in the evolving game of today, how sharp are these "football minds"? I give Turner a low B with room to go backwards and Rivera a high C with room to go upwards. The fact is the team seems prepared above avg, but lacks any special demonstration of Xs and Os/scheme dominance throughout the season. Rivera can prove better than I expect, while Turner may prove worse. The fact that Turner was an X/O genius in '95 means little now and may actually work against him if he doesn't have the intellectual capacity to evolve with the game.

Emotional Impact- Turner can't be above a C here. He does not appear to be much of an emotional leader... a nice guy maybe, but that doesn't really translate to emotional impact in football well. Rivera may be an A. As a former LB with the '85 Bear SB team, I gotta imagine he can inspire and push his guys. I think this is his area of specialty and what helped him help Chicago to the '06 SB.

Leadership- Anytime a team plays completely mediocre, when it has enormous potential, and turns it on late in the year, you have to acknowledge that leadership is weak. Why? Because SD has demonstrated for 3x years that it has a HIGH-top level of performance. In two of those three years, that top-level performance struggled to come out. This is what a coach is paid to do. In fact, it proved to only come out when the players recognized that everything was on the line (or on them). The talent is there and SD, THE PLAYERS, have proven it in the playoffs two years in a row. The studs and leaders on this team have pulled together to overcome teams, their coaches, and their own GM...yes, they have that much talent, but can only pull it off (when WE collapse or) when the leaders on the field start to take over. Here I reference: LT calling a team-only meeting in '07 with the team at 4-5 (they win 7 straight) and P. Rivers screaming a play at Turner late in the '08 Indy playoff win (can't place exact time this happened- anyone?). Lets remember that LT openly questioned Turner's staff in '07 as the team slid.

Oh yeah, AJ Smith....Leadership- F. By letting personality and ego become the center of how he does business, he has sent the wrong message to this team. While he may be able to pick players, he certainly cannot pick coaches. He has sent the message that coaching is incidental to victory and that his analysis of talent is the fundamental ingredient.

Prediction:

What's interesting is that no one wants to talk about the warts that are under the beautiful image of SD. The warts are all I see. Now I think I may be to heavy on SD's demise b/c as they are one of the most talented teams, they will certainly win their share of games.

This team is incapable of going above 9-7 though. In fact, what is more likely, is that all these warts explode this year and this team goes into the tank. This team rests on the talent in the D and the leadership and talent of Rivers/LT and a few others on O. In '07, this team was better prepared to win. They struggled and injuries did not come until late. Last year, they had injuries and really struggled. This year they are healthy, but older, and everyone seems to think they will be the "same 'ol" SD.

My favorite quote from Turner this year is along the lines of.......this year the players aren't counting on our talent, the players are going to go out and take it....What? This sounds like the problems have been in the execution department or on the player side. If you're coaching/saying this, the "smart" players have gotta be completely tuning you out. Why wouldn't they think they can? Every year, they still get it done in the playoffs.....carrying you. This brings me back to "What do the players on this team think about the leaders of this organization?"

The bottomline is that I predict at some point this season the players will visibly lose faith in the coaches and the front office. Putting all the pressure on the players can rally the team, but if the problems lie elsewhere then watchout. If anything starts to go wrong, then the *(^% is gonna fly.

When I look at talent, I can't help but see how good SD looks. In fact, I concede the division to them on talent. This of course, is why the MSM concedes the division to SD. To the MSM, looks matter and real insight and consideration of things that are important are secondary. But leadership and what I think will prove to be a lack of faith in the SD organization's leadership will bring this team down. Otherwise, all the things we, at MHR, and the copycat NFL believe matter- organizational leadership and coherency at the personnel/coaching/GM level........don't matter (or SD becomes an exception to the rule)

Well this year, the storm that has been CLEARLY buiding off the SD coast manifests itself as a hurricane.....and everyone realizes that coaches matter and the players can't do it all (or AJ Smith can't just b/c he picks 'em).

SD starts strong, but finishes 5-11.....Everyone gets fired, maybe Smith too......In even the best case scenario, SD collapses like Denver last year and loses the Division in the last game....either way, it ends in a storm of destruction.

I enjoyed projecting Denver's record for '09. When AJF gave his "wet blanket" analysis.....which I really liked and appreciated.....I thought I'd throw out more than my comment on the Schedule post with some other thoughts I have from looking around the league.

First, I like the Broncos to win no less than 10 games. Who they beat and lose against I really have no clue. For every team I pick to get worse that actually gets better, I expect another team that I thought would be great to end up in the tank. I think of a team's record as an emotional outcome that is produced from one small positive event/input building on top of another (the builder is KEY). Don't mistake my focus on the emotional part of football as a disregard for the quantifiables (player skill, the weight of the DL, speed at WR, etc.). I just put these "quantifiables" subordinate to other parts of the game.

When it comes to the NFL, parity is the reality that makes "coaching/leadership" the most critical aspect of every team. Why do I add leadership? Because, for teams like the Washington Redskins, it really doesn't matter how great the coaches are as long as Mr. Snydaer wants to continue to stick his hands in the batter. His leadership (lack of) and undermining of the coaches will never allow that team to be as good as it could be without him. Even if they ever win a Super Bowl, they'll have underperformed. This "coaching/leadership" can be a team (Newsome/Harbaugh or Parcells/Sparano) or a one man show (Belicheck) at the highest level and must be supported by a strong supporting cast of Coords and Posn coaches. The quality of "coaching/leadership" is becoming the predominant characteristic of great (Super) football teams. For this reason, the NFL is the best competitive league out there.

2006: McCarthy- 2nd yr best record in NFC; Payton- 1st yr NFC Champ r/u; Mangini-playoffs (Philips- verdict still out, but I think Parcells made this team, but couldn't coach it to victory)

2007: Whisenhunt- 2nd yr Super Bowl r/u (Tomlin & Turner- I don't include these two b/c their team was already at a level of excellence when hired)

2008: Sparano- playoffs; Harbaugh- AFC Champ r/u; Smith- playoffs

What is significant is the quickness with which these coaches turned their teams around?

I would challenge anyone to find these types of turnarounds on so many teams in consecutive years in any other league.....NBA, NCAA, MLB? The significance of coaching and leadership have increased because, as demonstrated by such quick turnarounds, the differences in talent, that cannot be addressed with changes in scheme, are marginal.

Let me also highlight an important factor that McD seems to understand. When you have a coach (esp. a good one) that comes from your opponent's organization, you gain an advantage! Philly learned that when it lost Spags to NYG and couldn't beat 'em after; NE learned it when all the sudden the hapless Jets gave them fits with Mangini; McD went out and got ACs from SD and Oak that had been there for years. Why Martingdale comes over I'll never figure out? Note what Reid and Philly just did by picking up B. Stewart (ex Dallas DC). This insight from a former coach matters in today's NFL b/c coaching matters more than players.

**Let me address two teams here that have a big impact on our schedule. SD and Dal. Both Turner and Philips have run these teams into the ground. They both have (or had) great talent and great coaches prior that prepared these teams to do well. When a team goes 4-8, but advances in the playoffs, that inconsistency is a reflection of the coach. When a team loses 3 of 4 and 2 of 3 in each of its last two seasons to fall apart (Dal), the performance reflects on the coach. Its too late to turn these teams around. These coaches had their chance. What is more likely is that they play worse this year. Albeit, there is an X factor here which I will comment on. Sometimes strong QBs or Def Ldrs (R. Lewis) can mitigate the coach's lack of leadership (he still must be a decent coach though). This is possible with both these teams (Rivers/Merriman or Romo/Ware) as I don't see Turner or Philips as completely terrible. Certainly, P. Rivers has already done this for two years. Romo wants to do it badly to prove himself. I think Romo would have a chance if there wasn't so much other drama and meddling ownership. I expect Romo to do well, but the ballon to pop somewhere on the way. For SD, I expect Rivers to collapse from holding Turner up the last two years. While Merriman or Ware are stars, I don't see them as emotional leaders that can lift a team for a season ala R. Lewis.

To try and understand how our coaching can lead us past our tough schedule, lets rank our teams on only talent and then on only coaching:

TALENT:

Tier I: NE, Pitt, Philly, SD, Indy, Tier II: NYG, Bal, Dal, Den, Wash Tier III: KC, Cincy, Cle, Oak

COACHES:

Tier I: NE, Pitt, Den, KC, Bal Tier II: Philly, NYG, Wash, Cle, Tier III: SD, Dal, Indy, Cincy, Oak

I think most W/L projections are done by analysing talent and not coaching. Of course, talent is easier to quantify, so it makes sense that when projecting we focus on that. However, the past several years have not only shown the significant impact of coaching, but that it magnifies slight advantages and greatly minimizes disadvantages.

Of course you may not agree with my coaching status of each team, but I'll give you some small explanations.

Indy- What do you think of Coyer? How can Caldwell get rid of Meeks, so quickly (maybe he wanted to work with someone he likes?)? When you lose someone like Dungy, its difficult to stay the same. This year could put a tremendous burden on P.Manning to pull out wins by himself? The team seemed to depend on him more and more last year. A recipe for disaster.

NYG-Spags helped this team to at least 3-4 wins. He singlehandedly broke down the most efficient offense ever...I think we see Spags vs. McD again. Its too much for NYG to overcome and Eli doesn't have his safety blanket anymore which means more pressure to make plays = more interceptions.

While I can't see Denver losing to any team ranked below NYG on my coaching list, I also think its possible they beat one of the top 6x coached teams (to include NYG). Less than 10 is tough for me to imagine.....we'll see

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