Well folks, it's that time of the season again, time for an update on the Trifecta competition!  For those interested in a little background, please visit my Non Conference update from January.  For a quick recap, the basic idea is that you get credit for guessing correct participants of the trifecta (one point for each player that you guess that makes the trifecta at any rank), and bonus points for guessing the correct rank.  So a perfect score (a "winner" by Bill C.'s definition) would score 9 points.  So what are we waiting for?  In the words of the legendary Brian Fellow: Let's get going!

Quick Stats (Conference season only):

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[Bumped to the front page because, well, of course it's going to be bumped to the front page...]

So we are already almost half way through the 2010-2011 Men's Basketball season here at RMN, and while Bill C. and the regular contributors keep churning out awesome, meaningful content, we are left without answers to some of the most meaningless questions related to Mizzou Men's Basketball at RMN.  Specifically questions like: Who's the king of all posters when it comes to trifectas?  What players do we expect to do well?  How do our expectations change as the season goes on?  Who needs to get a life and stop spending so much time on RMN?

Well rejoice my RMN brethren (and sistern?), those answers are now here!  For the uninitiated, this whole production began way back in November after the Arkansas - Pine Bluff game, where I suggested the following method of scoring the theretofore (see what I did there?) unwinnable game.  The basic idea is that you get credit for guessing correct participants of the trifecta (one point for each player that you guess that makes the trifecta at any rank), and bonus points for guessing the correct rank.  So a perfect score (a "winner" by Bill C.'s definition) would score 9 points.  

Statistical Analysis:

First we can look at how frequently each score happens.  We've had a total of 707 entries, 12 perfect score winners, and an average score of 2.60.  Out of fifteen games, five have had perfect score winners.

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Sunday was a big day for several former Tigers.

• Jeremy Maclin had two TDs for the Eagles.  He has 4 TD catches in the first three games of the season. First TD Second TD
  
• Sean Weatherspoon had 7 tackles and teammate William Moore 6 for the Falcons in their dramatic OT win over the defending Super Bowl champ Saints
• Justin Gage led the Titans in receptions (3) and yards (36).  Okay, so that may not look that impressive, but VY only completed 10 passes.

"Did you know?" is a collection of statistical quirks, oddities, or simply interesting tidbits about the Tiger’s upcoming opponent.  After briefly making an appearance in the heydays of "Front Page Fridays" during the 2008 season, "Did you know?" is back for this game and (hopefully) all of conference play.
 
Did you know…
 
…that the RedHawks kicker made only seven of twelve field goals a year ago (58.3%, ranked 112th), but is hitting 100% so far this season (T-1st), and has already made five?  Only one team has shown a bigger improvement in percentage (Illinois hit 56% last year and is still perfect this year), and they have a new kicker.   This.. doesn’t really mean anything.
 
…that of the RedHawks fifteen longest plays (and all 20+ yard plays) from scrimmage this year, exactly zero of them came against Florida?  They have had thirteen plays longer than 20 yards against their previous two opponents, but only one longer than 27, a 62-yard TD pass against Colorado State.  If the Tigers prevent the RedHawks from any plays 20 yards or longer, then we can then conclude that Mizzou’s defense is as good as Florida’s.  Well, we can try.

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(Ed. note - Bumped from FanPosts. Front Page Friday FTW!)

A weekly collection of interesting statistical tidbits and oddities of MU's opponent.   This week, it's K-State!

Did you know...

...that K-State returns a higher percentage of punts than any other team in the nation?  They return 70% of opponents' punts, and they average almost 13 yards on returns.   Including blocks, they've held opponents to only 32.7 yards per punt, also tops in the nation.  Even excluding blocks opponents have only averaged 36 yards per kick, still good for 6th in the country.  So punting against K-state will only net you 24 yards on average, with about a 10% chance of getting your kick blocked.   Given this info, I would expect to see Mizzou be more aggressive when (if??) it faces fourth downs.  I say go for it if you're past your own 40, what do you think?

...that K-State leads the nation in blocked kicks?  They've blocked 8 punts, pats, and field goals.  Let's just hope this one doesn't come down to a field goal like last week.

...that K-state has converted (and attempted) more 4th downs than any other FBS team? They've converted 17 of 28, for an average of about 3 out of 4 per game.  However, sixteen of those attempts have come in blowout losses to TTU, OU, and KU.  Mizzou had a lot of trouble getting off the field on fouth down versus Baylor last week and that made the game more competitive than it should have been.  We'll see how Eberflus has his defense prepared this week.

...that K-State Running back Logan Dold is the greatest passer in NCAA history?  He's completed one pass in one attempt for eight yards and a touchdown, giving his a passer rating of 497.2

...that K-state is only scoring 81% of the time they reach the red-zone?  That number ranks 69th in the nation (insert obligatory 69 joke here).  However, their TD/FG ratio is very high (6th in the country), which means they most often score a touchdown rather than a field goal.  So they average 5.3 pts per red-zone attempt, good for 30th in the nation.   Mizzou is scoring 89% of the time, averaging 5.6 points (12th in the country, OU is first with an astounding 6.5pts per red-zone trip)

...that K-state has fumbled the ball 19 times in 9 games, and lost 12?  Only six teams have lost more fumbles.  And while K-state can complain a little about bad luck since they've lost 63% of their fumbles, it's hard to be sympathetic for a team who puts the ball on the ground more than twice a game.  Mizzou, on the other hand has been TERRIBLY unlucky:  The only team in the country who has lost 100% of its fumbles. Five for Five (Before you stop me, I know that somebody for Mizzou fumbled at Baylor and it bounced right back into his hands, I'm not sure why the stats don't include this fumble)  So there are no teams who have fumbled fewer times than Mizzou, but there are 19 teams who have lost fewer fumbles.  In that way, this team very much reminds me of Mizzou teams of old: bad luck!

A new feature this week:  The "Did You Know Super-Obvious-Anyway Keys to the Game"!

• Neutralize K-States special teams by not punting
• Protect kickers on PATs and FGs (perhaps try fakes)
• Keep Super-QB Logan Dold out of the game
• Keep KSU out of the red-zone so they can't score their 5.3 points
• Recover KSU's two fumbles

Go Tigers!

Promoted to the front page because...it's Front Page Friday!

A weekly collection of interesting statistical tidbits and oddities of MU's opponent.   This week, it's Baylor!

Did you know...

...that Baylor  is only averaging 1.7 yards per punt return this year?  That's good for 119th out of 120 - Hawaii is averaging 1.4.  Also, Baylor has only returned 10 of the 33 punts they've forced, and have only Fair Caught (Fair-Catched?) 5, meaning the ball just goes rolling around on the ground half the time.  Missouri on the other hand has punted 20 times, and only had four attempted punt returns against.  How many punt returns do you think Baylor will have Saturday?

...that Baylor is last in the Big XII in Third Down Conversions at 33.7%, AND 11th in Third Down defense at 48%?

...that while Robert Griffin hasn't thrown an interception this season in 175 attempts, he throws just over half as many touchdowns as Chase Daniel per attempt?  His touchdown rate is 3.77% versus Daniel's 7.33%.

..that Baylor has missed 4 PATs in 30 attempts this year?  Only one team in the country has missed more, and they score a LOT more touchdowns: Texas Tech. Kicker Ben Parks is 4 of 6 on field goals with a long of 36.  Oh, and he's missed from 33 and 19 yards out. 

...that Baylor has gone for it on fourth down 14 times (converting 7), while Missouri has only attempted 8 fourth down conversions.  I'm pretty sure that at least a part of this disparity has something to do with place kickers.  What do you think?

...that Baylor punter Derek Epperson's 43.5 yards per kick is 2nd in the Big XII?

...that Baylor running back Jay Finley is averaging 27 yards per reception?  The sophomore rarely catches a pass, but has made the most of his three receptions this year with 82 yards, including a 47 yard touchdown.

...that Finley's 6.05 yards per carry is 5th in the Big XII and 25th in the nation?  That's right behind Mizzou's Derrick Washington, at 6.17 ypc, 4th in the Big XII, 24th in the nation.

...that there are TWENTY players in the Big XII that have scored more points than Baylor's leader Robert Griffin?  I'll give you three guesses as to which Big XII team has zero players in the Top 100 (hint, it's also the only Big XII team to get shutout this year).

(Editors' Note: bumped from FanPosts)

I want to talk a little bit about turnovers, and how MU can expect to gain an edge in Saturday's matchup.

OSU has turned the ball over 6 times, three fumbles lost, and three ints.  They have been opportunistic on defense, recovering six fumbles, and getting five ints in 197 opponents pass attempts.  This numbers sound good, and on the surface they are.  However when you look a little more closely, you see that OSU has fumbled the ball ten times, which puts it at ranked 84th (out of 120) in the country in fumbles per game.    Now I want to look at this statistic from the baseball perspective, sort of like a BABIP*. 

*For those of you not into the sabermetrics, the BABIP-or batting average on balls in play- holds that a player doesn't have control over whether the ball is an out or a hit once it is hit in play.  In the long run, BABIP for everyone will be ~.300  Often times a player who is on a "hot streak" simply has a very high BABIP during that stretch, which usually can't be sustained.  Eventually the balls will begin to bounce the other way 

The closest thing in football to BABIP is Fumbles Lost %.  In the long run, a team that fumbles the ball will recover it exactly 50% of the time.  This is displayed in the numbers over the past 2 1/2 seasons, where the fumbling team recovered 51%, 49%, and 51% of their fumbles overall (2006, 2007, 2008 respectively).   A team that has a high Fumbles Lost % (MU has lost 100% - 4/4 this year) is having bad luck.   A team that has a low percentage of fumbles lost (OSU 30% [3/10] or OU 0% [0/3] or LSU 14% [1/7]) is just getting lucky.   What a team DOES control is how often it fumbles.   OSU has fumbled the ball a lot, and has fumbled in every game.  Part of this has to do with the fact they hand the ball off so dang much (51 times per game).   But if OSU keeps putting the ball on the ground, they WILL begin to lose them.  

Who to expect to fumble:  Zac Robinson.  He has accounted for six of OSU's ten fumbles, recovering it himself four of those times.  All of his fumbles have happened when he gets hit behind the line of scrimmage while trying to run/escape pressure. Over at Pokes Pride they used a statistic that Robinson has only been sacked twice this year.   That may be true, but Robinson's been stuffed behind the line on rushes NINE times, losing the football on FIVE of those plays.  If Mizzou can get a little pressure up the middle and hit Robinson behind the LOS, this game could be over by halftime.

Hope you all appreciate this analysis!  Thanks for giving me an outlet!