SB Nation User Blog: BigMOman

Did you know?: K-State Edition

BigMOman — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 13:57:56 -0000

(Ed. note - Bumped from FanPosts. Front Page Friday FTW!)

A weekly collection of interesting statistical tidbits and oddities of MU's opponent. This week, it's K-State!

Did you know...

...that K-State returns a higher percentage of punts than any other team in the nation? They return 70% of opponents' punts, and they average almost 13 yards on returns. Including blocks, they've held opponents to only 32.7 yards per punt, also tops in the nation. Even excluding blocks opponents have only averaged 36 yards per kick, still good for 6th in the country. So punting against K-state will only net you 24 yards on average, with about a 10% chance of getting your kick blocked. Given this info, I would expect to see Mizzou be more aggressive when (if??) it faces fourth downs. I say go for it if you're past your own 40, what do you think?

...that K-State leads the nation in blocked kicks? They've blocked 8 punts, pats, and field goals. Let's just hope this one doesn't come down to a field goal like last week.

...that K-state has converted (and attempted) more 4th downs than any other FBS team? They've converted 17 of 28, for an average of about 3 out of 4 per game. However, sixteen of those attempts have come in blowout losses to TTU, OU, and KU. Mizzou had a lot of trouble getting off the field on fouth down versus Baylor last week and that made the game more competitive than it should have been. We'll see how Eberflus has his defense prepared this week.

...that K-State Running back Logan Dold is the greatest passer in NCAA history? He's completed one pass in one attempt for eight yards and a touchdown, giving his a passer rating of 497.2

...that K-state is only scoring 81% of the time they reach the red-zone? That number ranks 69th in the nation (insert obligatory 69 joke here). However, their TD/FG ratio is very high (6th in the country), which means they most often score a touchdown rather than a field goal. So they average 5.3 pts per red-zone attempt, good for 30th in the nation. Mizzou is scoring 89% of the time, averaging 5.6 points (12th in the country, OU is first with an astounding 6.5pts per red-zone trip)

...that K-state has fumbled the ball 19 times in 9 games, and lost 12? Only six teams have lost more fumbles. And while K-state can complain a little about bad luck since they've lost 63% of their fumbles, it's hard to be sympathetic for a team who puts the ball on the ground more than twice a game. Mizzou, on the other hand has been TERRIBLY unlucky: The only team in the country who has lost 100% of its fumbles. Five for Five (Before you stop me, I know that somebody for Mizzou fumbled at Baylor and it bounced right back into his hands, I'm not sure why the stats don't include this fumble) So there are no teams who have fumbled fewer times than Mizzou, but there are 19 teams who have lost fewer fumbles. In that way, this team very much reminds me of Mizzou teams of old: bad luck!

A new feature this week: The "Did You Know Super-Obvious-Anyway Keys to the Game"!

Neutralize K-States special teams by not punting
Protect kickers on PATs and FGs (perhaps try fakes)
Keep Super-QB Logan Dold out of the game
Keep KSU out of the red-zone so they can't score their 5.3 points
Recover KSU's two fumbles

Go Tigers!

"Did You Know?": Baylor Edition

BigMOman — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 15:22:08 -0000

Promoted to the front page because...it's Front Page Friday!

A weekly collection of interesting statistical tidbits and oddities of MU's opponent. This week, it's Baylor!

Did you know...

...that Baylor is only averaging 1.7 yards per punt return this year? That's good for 119th out of 120 - Hawaii is averaging 1.4. Also, Baylor has only returned 10 of the 33 punts they've forced, and have only Fair Caught (Fair-Catched?) 5, meaning the ball just goes rolling around on the ground half the time. Missouri on the other hand has punted 20 times, and only had four attempted punt returns against. How many punt returns do you think Baylor will have Saturday?

...that Baylor is last in the Big XII in Third Down Conversions at 33.7%, AND 11th in Third Down defense at 48%?

...that while Robert Griffin hasn't thrown an interception this season in 175 attempts, he throws just over half as many touchdowns as Chase Daniel per attempt? His touchdown rate is 3.77% versus Daniel's 7.33%.

..that Baylor has missed 4 PATs in 30 attempts this year? Only one team in the country has missed more, and they score a LOT more touchdowns: Texas Tech. Kicker Ben Parks is 4 of 6 on field goals with a long of 36. Oh, and he's missed from 33 and 19 yards out.

...that Baylor has gone for it on fourth down 14 times (converting 7), while Missouri has only attempted 8 fourth down conversions. I'm pretty sure that at least a part of this disparity has something to do with place kickers. What do you think?

...that Baylor punter Derek Epperson's 43.5 yards per kick is 2nd in the Big XII?

...that Baylor running back Jay Finley is averaging 27 yards per reception? The sophomore rarely catches a pass, but has made the most of his three receptions this year with 82 yards, including a 47 yard touchdown.

...that Finley's 6.05 yards per carry is 5th in the Big XII and 25th in the nation? That's right behind Mizzou's Derrick Washington, at 6.17 ypc, 4th in the Big XII, 24th in the nation.

...that there are TWENTY players in the Big XII that have scored more points than Baylor's leader Robert Griffin? I'll give you three guesses as to which Big XII team has zero players in the Top 100 (hint, it's also the only Big XII team to get shutout this year).

Hidden keys to the game: OSU fumbles

BigMOman — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 19:26:25 -0000

(Editors' Note: bumped from FanPosts)

I want to talk a little bit about turnovers, and how MU can expect to gain an edge in Saturday's matchup.

OSU has turned the ball over 6 times, three fumbles lost, and three ints. They have been opportunistic on defense, recovering six fumbles, and getting five ints in 197 opponents pass attempts. This numbers sound good, and on the surface they are. However when you look a little more closely, you see that OSU has fumbled the ball ten times, which puts it at ranked 84th (out of 120) in the country in fumbles per game. Now I want to look at this statistic from the baseball perspective, sort of like a BABIP*.

*For those of you not into the sabermetrics, the BABIP-or batting average on balls in play- holds that a player doesn't have control over whether the ball is an out or a hit once it is hit in play. In the long run, BABIP for everyone will be ~.300 Often times a player who is on a "hot streak" simply has a very high BABIP during that stretch, which usually can't be sustained. Eventually the balls will begin to bounce the other way

The closest thing in football to BABIP is Fumbles Lost %. In the long run, a team that fumbles the ball will recover it exactly 50% of the time. This is displayed in the numbers over the past 2 1/2 seasons, where the fumbling team recovered 51%, 49%, and 51% of their fumbles overall (2006, 2007, 2008 respectively). A team that has a high Fumbles Lost % (MU has lost 100% - 4/4 this year) is having bad luck. A team that has a low percentage of fumbles lost (OSU 30% [3/10] or OU 0% [0/3] or LSU 14% [1/7]) is just getting lucky. What a team DOES control is how often it fumbles. OSU has fumbled the ball a lot, and has fumbled in every game. Part of this has to do with the fact they hand the ball off so dang much (51 times per game). But if OSU keeps putting the ball on the ground, they WILL begin to lose them.

Who to expect to fumble: Zac Robinson. He has accounted for six of OSU's ten fumbles, recovering it himself four of those times. All of his fumbles have happened when he gets hit behind the line of scrimmage while trying to run/escape pressure. Over at Pokes Pride they used a statistic that Robinson has only been sacked twice this year. That may be true, but Robinson's been stuffed behind the line on rushes NINE times, losing the football on FIVE of those plays. If Mizzou can get a little pressure up the middle and hit Robinson behind the LOS, this game could be over by halftime.

Hope you all appreciate this analysis! Thanks for giving me an outlet!

Image FanShot

BigMOman — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 19:03:23 -0000