I just want to start by saying that I think Bryan Burwell had it right in his article yesterday about the Holliday situation. DeWitt knew this was coming. He knew that Holliday was a Boras client and would test the market. If DeWitt was not willing to open up DeWallet and doll out the dollars to keep Holliday in red then he shouldn't have approved the trade. We all know that Pujols needs to be extended. We all know that we have other holes to fill. And we know that Holliday is going to make a boat load of money. But so did DeWitt. So, if he is/was unwilling to raise payroll by adding Holliday while accommodating our other needs he should not have approved the trade in the first place.

Furthermore, we were the third highest in the NL in attendance at 3.34 million and are in the top third in revenues in MLB. In other words, there is room to expand payroll. But isn't that what DeWitt has been saying all along? Has he not promised for the last 4-5 off-seasons that there is flexibility to add payroll past the 100 million dollar mark if an elite player comes along worth the investment? Well Matt Holliday is that player and it is time for DeWitt to put up or shut up.

That being said, I still feel fairly optimistic about the chances of re-signing Holliday despite the fact that the media has all but counted us out. However, if DeWitt proves to be the frugal SOB that we all think he is I think there are some interesting options that have not been discussed in these neck of the woods quite yet.

My first thought is this: Holliday is a type A free agent. This was nearly a forgone conclusion when we traded for him earlier this year. So, if we don't re-sign Holliday it transforms the trade from Holliday for Wallace, Mortenson, and Peterson to Holliday, 1st round pick for Wallace, Mortenson, and Peterson. I think this is an important distinction since the A's certainly would not have re-signed Holliday had they not traded him and would have cashed in on those extra draft picks. In other words, Holliday being a type A free agent is another valuable commodity. Think of it this way: we either traded the farm for Matt Holliday long term or we traded the farm for three months of Holliday and Colby Rasmus. Now, I know no first round pick is a guarantee and it is less likely that they will turn out like Colby has but the thought is (at least) somewhat comforting.

Now, what happens if we lose Holliday? Besides the sky falling I mean. Sure we could go after Bay, but from what I have been reading it sounds more like we would try to make smaller upgrades at multiple positions. One obvious place to add some power and upgrade would be second base. I know Skip made some progress defensively at 2nd last year, but he was still a below average defender. His outfield defense is average to above average making him more valuable in the OF. So, if the Card elected to move Skip to LF there are several ways we could improve at 2nd while potentially adding a bit more pop to the lineup.

1. Brandon Phillips - I know this is unlikely since it would require an in-division trade but MLBTradeRumors is reporting that the Reds are looking to shed payroll and Phillips is one of the main candidates to go. Getting Phillips would presumably cost less in terms of prospects if we are willing to take on his salary. He has been one of the best power hitting second basemen in the NL the last several years (He went for .276/.329/.447 last year and has averaged 22 HRs over the last four years) and according to FanGraphs had a WAR of 3.2 last year.That made him worth 14.6 million last year at an actual salary of a little more than 5 million. Pretty good deal. (For comparison sake, Skippy had a WAR of 1.2 last year).

2. Chone Figgins - Sure he doesn't have the pop we are looking for but he has been a really good player. Problem is, he is also a type A free agent and is getting up there in years (he is now 31). But Figgins has good versatility, mad on base skills and had a WAR of over 6 last year. Thou, at 31 I find it hard to believe that Figgins will be able to repeat his 2009 season. Correct me if I am wrong but it seems like scrappy slap hitters like Figgins decline rapidly. David Eckstein anyone?

3. Dan Uggla - Uggla is pretty much Brandon Phillips with worse defense and speed. He getson base and slugs better than Phillips (.243/.354/.459) but his WAR this year was just behind Phillips at 2.9 (defense being the main reason). He hasn't hit less than 27 HRs in any season and has had an OPS over .800 for his career. I know that Uggla's fielding is terrible, but according to FanGraphs he was better than Skip last year (-10 to -12) and would actually be a defensive upgrade at 2nd. Uggla is on the block and could be a nice fit in the lineup to help build some "depth protection" for Pujols.

4. Orlando Hudson - It was rumored that we were looking at O-Dawg last off-season and would seem to still be a decent fit. Hudson doesn't have the pop of a Uggla or Phillips but he is still a good hitter (.281/357/.417). I know he got replaced by Ronnie Belliard at the end of the season in LA but Hudson is still a starting 2nd basemen in this league with a slick glove.

5. Placido Polanco - this is sort of a homer pick but I would love to see Polanco back in Saint Louis. He is probably on the downside of his career but he can play 2nd and 3rd and and would a solid utility type. He had a decent season last year but I'm not sure that he is a starter anymore. Regardless, Polanco would be a big upgrade to the bench and has the added benefit of being one of Pujols' best friends (hey, whatever it takes right?).

Anyway, those are my thoughts for now. I didn't really have the time to look into potential SP, RP, or 3rd upgrades so if you have any other ideas please feel free to discuss.

As most of America, I doubt that anyone here really paid too much attention to Wake Forest Football over the course of the last few years. Fortunately, I recently graduated from Wake Forest and have seen quite a bit of Aaron Curry. His name has come up sporadically over the last seveal weeks in connection with the Rams so I figured that I would give you my impressions of Curry after watching him nearly every week for the last three years.

Above anything else, Curry is a play maker. The dude's football instincts are amazing. In the bowl game this year against Navy, Curry was all over the field. For those of you who are not aware, Navy runs a triple option wing back offense which is extremely hard to read. But, sure enough, it seemed like Curry was around the ball every play. He didn't make a ton of huge plays but his presense was felt. He was forcing the issue all game long by getting into the backfield and forcing the ball out of the QBs hands.

Curry is also very explosive. He explodes at the point of attack and hits like a Mac Truck. Aaron also runs very well for someone his size. During his junior year, he returned 4 TOs for touchdowns, one of which was an 80-90 yard return (if memory serves me rigth).

Curry is going to be one of the better linebackers in the NFL in a few years. He isn't, however, a middle linebacker. I know with his size (close to 250) makes some people might think that he has the bulk that the Rams are looking for in a MLB. Drafting Curry and playing him inside would be a huge mistake and a grave misuse of his predigious talent. Curry is at his best when he is flying around the field. His quickness and explosiveness are his best strengths. He would not do well in the middle taking on blockers at the point of attack.

That being said, I want to add a little bit more about another Wake Forest defender. Alphonso Smith is the real deal. I have never seen a player in college or in the NFL that has better pure ball skills as a CB. Smith was a three year starter at Wake and tired Dre Bly's mark for career INTs in the ACC. The kid can flat out play. The knock on Smith is that he has mind-farts from time to time and will give up the big play. He also does not have top in height for a CB... but let me tell you something... he can fly!

I know I am a little biased cuz I went to school with these two guys and saw them play in the Orange Bowl when I was there... but I really think that both Curry and Smith have a great shot to be Pro-Bowl players in the NFL. Curry is a top 5 pick and is probably not the type of player the Rams need. Smith is a border line 1st round pick... and is someone who might be on the board when the Rams draft in the second round. If he is there when the Rams are picking... I sure as hell hope they take him!

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I saw this over at ESPN and thought that it might be an interesting discussion (although this might be a bit biases crowd). Basically Jerry Crasnick asks which player, A-Rod or Pujols, would you rather build a team around. He gives his pluses and minuses and eventually decides on A-Rod. I just thought it would be a fun discussion to have... and of course ill give my two cents.

I am trying to stay objective through this whole analysis but when looking at all the numbers I have to take Albert. Both are fantastic hitters but I think Pujols has a slight edge. First of all he is younger. Second of all Albert has never struck out more than 93 times in any season (his rookie season) and his next highest total is 69. A-rod struck out 120 times last year... more than Albert has struck out the past two years combined (108). In fact, the difference is so stark that A-rod has struck out more times in the past two years (259) than Albert has in the last four (225). If you go back three years A-rod has more strike outs that Albert has in all of his seasons combined minus his rookie season. You get the point.

The next measure is OBP and OPS. Last season, in arguably his worst season as a pro, Pujols posted a higher OBP (.429) than A-Rod (.422) who had an MVP season. Basically, it took an amazing MVP season for A-Rod to raise his OBP to Pujol's career average which is .420. A-Rod's career OBP  is .389.

When you bring OPS into the dicussion its obvious that Pujols is the better hitter. in 14 big league seasons A-Rod has had an OPS over 1.000 6 times.  In 7 seasons Pujols has had an OPS over 1.000 5 times. Again, Albert's career OPS is so much better than A-Rod's that it took A-Rod an MVP season just go get close to Pujol's career average (1.069 for A-Rod in 2007 and 1.040 for Albert's career). The career OPS difference is .967 to 1.040.

Now both of these two are hands down the best two hitters in baseball right now, but when you look at the numbers Pujols is the better all around hitter.

There is also the speed and defense factor to discuss. A-Rod plays a premium defensive position at third base and has much more speed than Pujols. That being said Pujols is one of the smartest base runners in baseball, but no one in their right mind would argue that Pujols is faster. Defensively Pujols is a better defender but at a less important position. A-Rod is past his gold glove days when he was with the Mariners but I don't think he is a defensive liability at third. The one caveat I would add is that in the past A-Rod has let his offensive struggles follow him into the field. Albert is simply a fantastic defender all the time regardless of his offensive  slumps. (Someone else please feel free to add to this defensive discussion with some statistical analysis... I don't have the time to do the research at the moment).

Last but not least I think you have to look at some intangibles. Pujols is as clutch as they come (just as Brad Lidge... who is still hurting) and is a career .300+ hitter in the playoffs. A-Rod lack of clutch hitting in the playoffs is well documented so I don't feel the need to discuss it. Not to mention Pujols has won a World Series and A-Rod has not. But honestly, who would you rather have in your clubhouse? Albert, who is always professional, or A-Rod the guy who opted out of his contract the night the Red Sox won the World Series. Yeah... me too.

To me it seems that in every aspect of the game except for foot speed Albert has the advantage over A-Rod. But I would love to hear your thoughts!

I'm thinking that at the right price Kaz Matsui could be a good stop gap fit for our SS problem/leadoff problem. He isn't going to make as much as Eck and had pretty good success with the bat last year. Naturally, when talking about any Rockies player having success hitting you have to consider the Coors Field factor. I did some digging and, as expected, Kaz had some pretty stark home/away splits.

Home: .330/.381/.466
Away: .249/.304/.333

Those aren't pretty at all. The OPS difference is over .230 points. However, Kaz does have speed (32 steals in 36 attempts) and can play both 2nd and SS. I know that the Cubs are looking into Kaz but at the right price I think he we could a good addition for a 1 or 2 year contract.

Also Kaz has historically hit well in bigger more spacious ballparks much like new Busch where he can slap the ball around and utilize his excellent speed.

Arizona: .315/.370/.506 -- 89 AB
Atlanta: .314/.385/.405 -- 131 AB
Washington: .274/.338./.385 -- 135 AB

Obviously all three of these stadiums are more spacious than Busch, however, I thought it was interesting. Now I'm not saying that Kaz is the long term solution or even an ideal fix for next year, just that he would be a possible cheap one or two year fix at more than one position of need (2nd, SS, and leadoff). I know the Cardinals have yet to show any interest, and that the Cubs are the only team I've really heard of that is pursuing Kaz, but there does seem to be a dying market for SS and 2nd basemen which could help deflate his value.

MLBtraderumors is reporting that Tim Lincecum can be had for a quality MLB bat... Chris Duncan seems to fit that description pretty well. Im sure that there might have to be an add-on (Anderson) but as the article points out Lincecum has HUGE upside. Looks pretty good to me.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7400932

I was lucky enough to be at the game this evening and one of the most disturbing things I noticed was Kip Wells body language in the 7th and LaRussia/Duncan/Molina's indifference towards it. To be fair, Wells should have gotten out of the inning with nary a run scored. Rolen's error on Theriot's ground ball was the beginning.

Well's body language after his walk to Lee (right after the error) is what really disturbed me. After the free pass, Wells made his way to the back of the mound methodically while fixing his gaze on the bullpen. He expected to be taken out. Before taking the mound again to face Ramirez Wells shot several more glances to the dugout then back to the bullpen, seemingly expecting to see Percival trot out to relieve him. Even as Wells was toeing the rubber and looking in for the sign for the first pitch to Ramirez Wells took one last quick glance out to the pen, clearly in disbelief that he was still in the game.

Immediately, I knew that the at bat with the Cubbies 3rd baseman was going to end poorly. Wells was not in the right state of mind to get the batter out. Instead of thinking about pitch selection he was wondering about hitting the showers. The thing that concerns me most about this is that neither Duncan, LaRussia, nor Yadi noticed his hesitancy to continue pitching. Not only did Wells expect to be taken out... it seems to me that he WANTED to be taken out.

Anyway... im not sure if any of you noticed this little transaction from at home on TV or if you were at the game. But I noticed it then and was convinced (and rightly so) that there was no way that that at bat by Ramirez could have ended positively for the Red Birds.  

If Roger Clemens does indeed sign with the Yankees they will have at least two pitchers that they will need to trade. Right now the Yankees have 6 MLB starting pitchers...

Randy Johnson
Mike Mussina
Chen-Wing Wang
Andy Pettite
Carl Pavano
Igawa (still have rights but have yet to come to a contract agreement)

If the Yankees add Clemens that will make seven starting pitchers making two of them expendable (assuming they sign Igawa). I don't know if it is possible for the Yankees to sign Igawa to a contract then send him down to the minors, and I know its possible that they will just not sign him, but either way the Yankees will have to deal at least Pavano and possibly even Igawa/RJ. I just see the Yankee's as a good trading partner for SP. So like I said... lets hope they sign Clemens.

There are still several managerial openings but it looks as if Oquendo is going to be the Cardinals 3rd base coach again next year. San Fran was the one team reported in having significant interent in Oquendo and they hired Bruce Bochey. The only two teams left with spots to fill are the Nationals and the A's. Jose doesn't seem like Billy Bean's type of manager so the only real threat are the Nationals. Lets hope Jose sticks around for a few more years so he can take over once Tony rides off into the sunset.

There are a lot of choices to make this year... like Larry and a few others im going to try my hand. Here are a few moves that I would make if I were Walt:

1.) Keep Jim Edmonds. Sign him to a two year 15 million dollar contract with some incentives. Even when hitting .260 Jimmy Baseball is the best CFer in the free agent pool. If healthy Jimmy is still gonna hit 25 HRs walk a 80-100 times and drive in 80-100 RBIs. All of that on top of his gold glove D... a bargin at 8 mil a season.

2.) This may not be possible but Walt needs to do all he can to trade Izzy and his 8.75 million contract. There are a lot of teams out there that need a closer. Cleveland (Kelly Shoppach?), Baltimore (Jay Gibbons?), Arizona (Craig Counsell), and Texas all could use a good Closer. The issue is clearly Izzy's health and how quickly he is going to come back from his latest surgery.  If he can be ready for spring training I think we could and should move Izzy. For the sake of my roster make up here I would say trade Izzy to Balitmore for Jay Gibbons (5 M in 07) that saves us about 3.75 M in salary.

3.) Wainwright remains our closer. Leaving us with a starting rotation of just Carp and Reyes. To fill in the last three spots the Cards should sign Jason Schmidt (13 M), Jeff Weaver (5-6M), and Mark Mulder (5-6M). Yes, Mulder was horrible last year but he was hurt. A one year incentive laden contract makes a lot of sense, especally when you consider how good Mulder can be. If the real Mulder shows up next year we have Carp and two very very good number 2's in Mulder and Schmidt. That on top of a very good number 4 in Jeff Weaver and Reyes in the 5 spot.

3.) Trade Duncan to Pittsburgh for Mike Gonzalez. The time to trade Duncan is now. Gonzalez is one of the bests LHRP in baseball. This trade is a no brainer.

4.) Sign Mark Loretta to a one year 3-4M contract. Loretta is a solid player all around. Hit in the 2 hole in front of Pujols since he has good on-base skills.

These moves leave us with a team that looks something like this

C- Yadi - 600k
C- Bennett - 650k
1B- MVP - 15M
2B- Loretta - 4M
3B- Rolen - 12M
SS- Eck - 4.5M
LF- Gibbons - 5M
CF- Jimmy 7M
RF- Juan - 5M
OF- J- Rod - 400k
OF- Schumaker - 300k
INF- Miles - 800k
INF- Spiezio - 1.5M

SP- Carp - 7.8M
SP- Schmidt - 13M
SP- Mulder - 6M
SP- Weaver- 5M
SP- Reyes- 350k
CL- Wainwright - 350k
RP- Gonzalez - 500k
RP- Kinney - 350k
RP- Looper - 4.5M
RP- Johnson- 350k
RP- Thompson - 400k
RP- Flores/Hancock - 350k
(Rincon- 1.5M)

The total salary for this team is: 97.2 M. I know this is a little above what we have seen in the past but I don't think this number is too big. The owners hit the jackpot this year in the playoffs and will continue to profit by huge amounts with all the World Series shirts and hats and such. I don't think a 100M dollar budget is too much to ask for, but the question is is will ownership agree with me? If 97.2 is too much try to trade Looper for prospects and put Hancock in the pen. with Wainwright closing, Gonzalez and Kinney seting him up Looper has turned into a middle innings guy. 4.5 M is a lot of money for a middle innings reliever.