SBNation.com User Blog: Bill C.

• Oklahoma State’s insane transfer restrictions list

• Johnny Manziel’s greatest Alabama-trolling yet

• The program with the country’s strangest recruiting Photoshops

• Bill Connelly: Yep, Notre Dame’s going to be really good again

SimmonsField.com: SEC Tournament: 5-Seed Mississippi State vs. 12-Seed Missouri
MUtigers.com: Tim Jamieson Meets Media in Hoover
The Missourian: Missouri baseball faces single-elimination in tough SEC tournament
KC Star: MU opens SEC baseball tournament vs. Mississippi State needing win to stay alive
SimmonsField.com: SEC Baseball: SEC Community Service Team, Headless Bulldogs
MUtigers.com: Quintanilla Named to SEC Baseball Community Service Team

Mizzou Links, 5-21-13

Bill C. — Tue, 21 May 2013 09:48:18 -0000

1. The SEC Tournament starts (and maybe ends) for Mizzou tonight at 8pm

2. DEUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCE

The Trib: Baylor guard Bello will transfer to MU
KC Star: Deuce Bello will transfer from Baylor to Missouri
Post-Dispatch: Mizzou gets basketball transfer from Baylor

Bello appeared in 66 games for Baylor the past two seasons, averaging 3.3 points per game as a freshman in 2011-12 and 2.4 points as a sophomore last season. He averaged 10 minutes a game each season and shot 46.5 percent. Known as a perimeter defender, Bello took only 25 shots from 3-point range in his two years at Baylor, making just five.

"I’m more of a slasher," he said. […]

In high school, Bello was recruited by Missouri assistant coach Tim Fuller, who was then an assistant at Louisville. Haith’s recent track record with Division-I transfers factored into Bello’s decision, he said.

"That was a big one," he said. "Those guys, like Alex, have done well when they’ve come to the program."

PowerMizzou: Tigers add four star transfer
PowerMizzou: Tons of High School Video of Deuce Bello

However my Post-Dispatch career turns out, I'll always remember that it began with Deuce Don't Call Me Bigalow Bello
— Dave Matter (@Dave_Matter) May 21, 2013

3. Mizzou in the pros

Fox Sports MW: Mizzou Monday: Pressey at the NBA Combine
SimmonsField.com: Mizzou Baseball in the Majors & Minors: Crow, Tepesch, Senne, Bond, Nicholas

4. Time to start scouting Washington

The Trib: Missouri, meet Washington
The Trib: Earleywine’s bluff works for Missouri softball team

5. A worthy cause

We're already asking you to donate to the Stubble Drive, but if you've got any spare cash for donating, Crimson & Cream Machine's Moore Tornado Victims Fund is certainly a worthy cause.

If people in Oklahoma City regard a tornado (or a series of them) as The Tornado, you know it was devastating. And that's always how the events of May 3, 1999, have been remembered. The Tornado. Well, yesterday's was quite a bit bigger and quite a big stronger, I believe, than that one. And the early indications are that it was bigger and stronger than Joplin, too. I can't even begin to comprehend it. People in Oklahoma grow up around the spectre of storms -- there's a tornado watch in place for basically every day between April 1 and May 31. I've always thought of it as a minor version of growing up in a war zone: You live your life, and you enjoy yourself as much as possible, and you know that you could be struck by disaster at any moment each spring. You have faith that it won't happen to you, but you know it might. It's a challenge, one Missourians know well, too, of course. But even if you know disaster can strike, you still don't expect that. You don't expect "biggest, most devastating tornado in the history of the planet." And you don't expect it to plow into elementary schools. So yeah. If you have pledged your money to the Stubble Drive and don't have any left to donate, don't worry about it. But if you do feel you can chip in, go over to C&C Machine and help out. They're going to need it.

Report: Baylor guard Deuce Bello transfers to Missouri

Bill C. — Mon, 20 May 2013 15:45:05 -0000

Just got off the phone with former Baylor SF Deuce Bello. As @gabedearmond first reported, Bello has decided to transfer to #Mizzou.
— Terez A. Paylor (@TerezPaylor) May 20, 2013

Just got a phone call from Deuce Bello. He's headed to Missouri. Sounded like style of play was a major factor.
— Evan Daniels (@EvanDanielsFOX) May 20, 2013

As first reported by Gabe Dearmond on the PowerMizzou premium boards and confirmed by other reporters on Twitter, it appears Deuce Bello will be a Missouri Tiger.

The No. 54 player in the Rivals class of 2011, Bello has been a defensive standout for Baylor and quite a work in progress on offense. In 2012-13, during Baylor's NIT championship campaign, Bello averaged 10.9 minutes, 2.4 points (48% on 2-pointers, 22% on 3-pointers, 43% from the line), and 1.4 rebounds per game. In 36 games, he also threw in 21 assists, 20 steals, 10 blocks, and 30 turnovers.

Bello's athletic upside is obvious, but his addition also serves as further proof of what Frank Haith has been saying for a while now: He wants a better defensive team. With Bello eligible starting in the 2014-15 season, Haith should get further assistance in that regard. Bello is a solid defender and an absolutely freakish athlete (see below). The question for this team moving forward, of course, is whether the defensive gains have come too much at the expense of the offense.

2013 Rome Masters: What last week can tell us about the French Open

Bill C. — Mon, 20 May 2013 14:27:12 -0000

The Internatzionali BNL d'Italia, a.k.a. the 2013 Rome Masters, wrapped up on Sunday with what we'll simply call familiar results. As with Madrid the week before, Rafael Nadal smoked a Swiss finalist following an early departure by Novak Djokovic, while Serena Williams destroyed a high seed on the women's side. That said, there was plenty to learn over the course of the week, even if we didn't "learn" some of the points below (because we already knew them).

15-0. This Nadal guy might be a name to watch at the French Open (#HotSportsOpinions)

We expected it, of course, but Rafael Nadal just continued to lay waste to the rest of men's tennis on the clay. He was challenged in the early rounds -- the maddening Ernests Gulbis took a set from him (6-1, no less) in the third round, and he had to survive another three-set blood bath versus David Ferrer in the quarterfinals; but when the trophy was in site, Nadal went from fourth gear to fifth and cruised past all challengers. Tomas Berdych, fresh off an upset of Novak Djokovic, won just six games in the semifinals. Roger Federer, a pretty good tennis player (another hot sports take), won four in the finals.

On both hard court and grass, men's tennis is fascinating. Novak Djokovic breaks through, then breaks through again. Roger Federer figures out a way to claw back to the top of the rankings. Andy Murray puts all of the pieces together. Juan Martin del Potro gets healthy and starts to figure everything out again. When healthy, Nadal makes a charge. And then Djokovic breaks through again. There are plot twists and changes in the hierarchy, and for three seasons out of the year (winter, summer, fall), it stays that way. But in the spring, when the tournaments are played on clay, everything is nearly pre-ordained. Even coming off a knee injury, Nadal quickly found his rhythm. He lost to Horacio Zeballos in the finals of his first tournament back from injury, won his next three tournaments, lost to Djokovic at Monte Carlo, and has now cruised through his final three French Open tune-ups. He is ridiculous on the red stuff. He stands behind the baseline, paints the corners, pins you deep, and doesn't allow you an opportunity to generate any offense whatsoever. And he's absurdly consistent. It's not fair.

15-all. That said … come on

I've seen it floating around on Twitter quite a few times in recent weeks: Is Nadal's comeback from a knee injury the greatest tennis comeback ever? It is an obvious, desperate conversation starter, but it should be no conversation. He wasn't stabbed on the court. He didn't get hit by a limo. He got tendinitis in his knee and needed to rest for a while. We don't need to Hollywood-ize this for it to still be really impressive.

30-15. Get it together, Nola

I'd love to see the other 126 players get paid and just have Rafa and Nole do a best-of-seven series at the French. Who is in?
— Chris Oddo (@TheFanChild) May 19, 2013

David Ferrer consistently challenges Rafael Nadal but can't seem to survive past two sets before collapsing in the third. So basically, Nadal's only two challenging opponents over the course of five sets are Djokovic and himself. If he is dialed in, he can only be taken down by Djokovic, the best defender in the world. Djokovic beat him, 6-2, 7-6, in Monte Carlo, but he has fallen into a mini-slump in recent weeks. Monte Carlo is the only title he has secured in his last five tournaments -- he lost to del Potro in the quarterfinals at Indian Wells, lost to Tommy Haas in the fourth round in Miami, was stunned by Grigor Dimitrov in the second round at Madrid, and fell to Berdych in the semifinals in Rome. None of these losses are particularly shameful; even Dimitrov is a rising star with a big game. But that he has lost all of these matches suggests that he is not in complete control of his game at the moment. Over five sets, he is nearly impossible to beat, but his mortality in three-set matches is alarming. The only drama on the men's side, the only thing that can overcome a Nadal onslaught and an easy eighth French Open title for the Spaniard, is Novak Djokovic bringing his A-game in the semifinals or finals.

(By the way ... come on, ATP and Roland Garros. Yes, Nadal is back in the ATP top 4, and yes, he will therefore get a top 4 seed. But he's the best clay court player in the world. By far. Even if you want to give Djokovic the No. 1 seed (which would be totally understandable), Nadal should get, at worst, the No. 2, rankings be damned. If we are subjected to a Djokovic-Nadal semifinal instead of final, it will be a ridiculous blown opportunity. I realize you typically adhere pretty closely to the ATP rankings, but the ATP rankings are flawed. Give him the 2.)

30-all. We probably shouldn't crown Serena just yet

Serena Williams was even more dominant on the women's side than Nadal was on the men's. That's been the story for most of the clay court season. She dropped four games to Laura Robson in the second round, three combined to Dominika Cibulkova and Carla Suarez Navarro in the third round and quarterfinals, three to Simona Halep in the semifinals, and just four to Victoria Azareanka in the finals. She is playing as well as she ever has on clay. That's 14 games, barely two sets' worth, in five matches.

That said, she does have one more mental roadblock to clear before she becomes the far-and-away French Open favorite. Williams is capable of falling into her own head at times, and that was never more true than in her last trip to Roland Garros, when she fell in three sets to journeywoman Virginie Razzano. Until she shows that she can continue playing loose and relaxed upon her return to Paris, her path will be at least a little bit cluttered.

(Okay, that's all hooey. It's possible that the women's tournament ends even more anti-climactically than the men's -- more so, even, because of what is likely going to be a vast number of early-round upsets of seeded players who have stunk on clay this year. But that's depressing. So please allow me to believe there will be some drama in the later rounds. Give me that.)

40-30. Upsets in name only

For the second straight tournament, a majority of the top players in the women's draw failed to even come close to living up to their seeding. No. 10 Caroline Wozniacki, No. 11 Nadia Petrova, and No. 15 Ana Ivanovic (who I proclaimed was turning a corner just a week ago) all fell in the first round. No. 4 Agnieszka Radwanska fell in the second. No. 5 Li Na and No. 8 Petra Kvitova lost in the third round (though at least Kvitova did fall to No. 9 Sam Stosur). Throw in No. 3 Maria Sharapova withdrawing due to illness before the quarterfinals and No. 6 Angelique Kerber withdrawing before the tournament started, and you end up with only three of the top eight seeds making the quarterfinals, and only two of the top four making the semis. Upsets are fun, but so are competitive late-round matches. In the semis, Williams erased qualifier Simona Halep, while Azarenka easily handled 2012 French finalist Sara Errani. That's not very fun. The best tournaments have a mix of upsets and late-round, heavyweight battles. On clay, it's often much more of the former than the latter. It's shaping up to be much of the same at Roland Garros.

Deuce. Benoit Paire and Simona Halep had themselves a week

That said, an underdog run or two is never a bad thing, as long as there's a cap on them. Benoit Paire, the No. 46 player in May's Advanced Baseline rankings (No. 29 on clay), certainly earned his semifinal money in Rome. He took out Juan Monaco (No. 11 on clay) in three sets in the first round, knocked off Julian Benneteau (7-6 in the third) in the second round, handled del Potro (No. 5 on clay) in straight sets, and almost double-bageled Marcel Granollers (No. 27 on clay) in the quarters before falling, 7-6, 6-4, to Federer in the semis. The run bumped him from 36th to 26th in the ATP rankings and likely secured the Frenchman a seed at Roland Garros. (The French men, by the way, have put together an impressive 2013 campaign thus far. Heading to their home slam, up to six -- Jo-Willie Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Gilles Simon, Paire, Jeremy Chardy, and Benneteau -- could get seeded in the top 32.)

Halep, meanwhile, had to qualify to make the field at all. But once in, she was dominant. She destroyed 2009 French Open champ (and comeback kid) Svetlana Kuznetsova in the first round, dropped just three games in the final two sets in upsetting Radwanska, lost six games to Roberta Vinci in the third round, and survived Jelena Jankovic in the quarterfinals. Serena Williams disposed of her quite easily in the semifinals, but there is no shame in that. The run gave her a 20-spot bump in the WTA rankings, from 64th to 44th.

Ad. Laura Robson might be figuring out the clay

With runs to the fourth round at the U.S. Open and the third round at the Australian Open, the 19-year old Brit has been making a name for herself of late. But she lost seven of nine WTA matches following the Aussie, and as her Advanced Baseline rankings -- 53rd overall, 97th on clay -- suggest, she is still a work in progress, especially on clay. But her showing at Madrid and Rome suggested that might be changing. She whipped fourth-seed Radwanska, 6-3, 6-1, in Madrid and barely fell (7-6 in the third) to Ivanovic. Then, in Rome, she crushed Venus Williams, 6-3, 6-2, before running into the Serena buzzsaw. The idea of the Advanced Baseline rankings is to remove luck-of-the-draw from the equation a bit. Robson's draws in both Madrid and Rome were unfavorable, but she fared quite well. A nicer draw in Paris could lead to a third straight quality slam.

Game. The Andy Murray region might have indirectly gotten harder

I mentioned last week that Andy Murray is barely a Top 10 player on clay and that anybody landing in his quadrant of the men's draw (since he was still all but guaranteed of a Top 4 seed) would be licking their chops and envisioning a semifinal run. Well, that before he suffered a back injury and withdrew from a match with Granollers (on his birthday, no less). Down big in the second set, he made a furious comeback, beat Granollers in a tie-breaker, and then retired. Turns out, he's been suffering from a nagging injury for a while and aggravated it on the clay. He will decide on Wednesday whether he's able to play the French Open at all.

While Murray's withdrawal might seem like a good thing for underdogs, it's really not. If Murray's out, then Ferrer, currently No. 5 in the world (though easily a Top 3 player on clay; boo, ATP rankings) gets a Top 4 seed. And unlike Murray, Ferrer will likely live up to his seed. A Murray withdrawal would actually solidify the top seeds and make Federer the most ripe for an early upset. And you don't typically make much money betting on Federer to lose early in a slam. Without Murray, the most interesting part of the draw will probably be who draws the No. 5-8 spot opposite Federer (i.e. who might face Fed in the quarterfinals).

2013 Kentucky football's 10 things to know: A zero-sum game with an Ohio exception

Bill C. — Fri, 17 May 2013 12:10:09 -0000

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Mark Stoops has impressed thus far

There were 50,831 fans in attendance at Kentucky's spring game. That's more than Texas or Texas A&M drew, more than SEC East rivals Georgia and South Carolina drew, more than Ohio State drew, and way more than Notre Dame, Oklahoma, or LSU drew. Hell, that's more than Kentucky drew for five of seven real home games in 2012. That many people came to watch not only a scrimmage, but a football scrimmage.

If that doesn't tell you that Mark Stoops has passed his first test as Kentucky's new head coach, I don't know what will.

Florida State's former defensive coordinator, Stoops closed the deal on a pretty good recruiting class; according to Rivals.com, Stoops landed three four-star recruits -- Louisville Trinity DE Jason Hatcher, Youngstown Cardinal Mooney DB Marcus McWilson, and JUCO DE Za'Darius Smith -- and enough other decent recruits to finish with the No. 29 class in the country. He has glad-handed and met the community, he has hired a pretty interesting staff that includes veteran offensive coordinator Neal Brown, an old hand at the spread offense, and young D.J. Eliot, Stoops' defensive ends coach at FSU. He has done everything he can to drum up enthusiasm in Lexington, and he has succeeded.

Stoops has passed the first test with flying colors. But the first test is the easiest. Just like a spring game isn't a real game, the real tests begin this fall, and it's probably going to take a while to see Stoops' efforts paying off to any demonstrable degree.

The reason for this is simple: Kentucky fell so, so far behind over the last couple of seasons. Joker Phillips is by all accounts a great guy and Photoshop whiz, but he couldn't keep the Wildcats afloat following Rich Brooks' retirement in 2009. Kentucky held on in Phillips' first season, falling from 7-6 and 53rd in the F/+ rankings to 6-7 and 54th. But the fall was precipitous, first on paper, then in the win column. Kentucky was 5-7 and 86th in 2011, then amid a youth movement sped up by injuries, crumbled to 2-10 and 112th in 2012.

You could consider it unfair that Phillips was let go when he had some bad breaks and a really, really young team; but when a team falls apart to this degree, you probably aren't going to get it back with the same coach in place. Kentucky elected to make a move, and now Stoops is the man.

More: Catch up on Bill Connelly's team-by-team 2013 preview series

2. For Kentucky to go up...

...somebody else in the SEC probably has to go down. This is key. Both Stoops at Kentucky and Butch Jones at Tennessee are pressing all of the right buttons and recruiting well, but that's kind of par for the course in the SEC. Vanderbilt, for instance, has also pressed the right buttons and recruited well of late, and even if each of these programs surpass Missouri -- the Tigers need a good 2013 to avoid a further step backwards in recruiting -- that's just one team.

Who else is going to fall, especially with Ole Miss recruiting like gangbusters and Arkansas and Auburn welcoming new coaches in the SEC West?

Then again, there's Ohio. The reason SEC recruiting is basically a zero-sum game is that most of the teams are fighting for the same elite players in the same region of the country. They will leave the region at times -- Georgia got quarterback Matthew Stafford from the state of Texas, Alabama got Mark Ingram from Michigan, etc. -- but the main reason why the SEC has been so successful of late is that there have been so many good recruits in its collective backyard. That said, Stoops appears to be hitting the recruiting trail hard in a state that is in no way south or east. He signed three Ohio prep players in the 2013 class, and he has scored a jarring five commitments from Ohio kids in the 2014 class thus far (including four star running back Mikel Horton and four-star receiver Thaddeus Snodgrass).

When Missouri entered the SEC, the Tigers not only attempted to establish recruiting footholds in Georgia and Florida, but they also attempted to hit states like Iowa and Illinois hard with their new "Come play in the SEC!" message. It seemed as if it was paying off until they stumbled on the field in 2012 and lost ground.

But there has not yet been any stumbling for Stoops, who was raised in Youngstown and played college football at Iowa. While the Big Ten has been reportedly trying to figure out how to move south, the SEC has, in a way, figured out how to move north. And if Stoops can build a strong base of talent with kids outside of the natural SEC region, the conference just got even tougher.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 \| Adj. Record: 4-8 \| Final F/+ Rk: 112
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
2-Sep	at Louisville	14-32	L	31.0 - 30.7	W
8-Sep	Kent State	47-14	W	45.5 - 26.5	W
15-Sep	Western Kentucky	31-32	L	24.4 - 20.8	W
22-Sep	at Florida	0-38	L	17.7 - 34.1	L
29-Sep	South Carolina	17-38	L	19.8 - 32.6	L
6-Oct	Mississippi State	14-27	L	14.6 - 28.3	L
13-Oct	at Arkansas	7-49	L	10.6 - 48.4	L
20-Oct	Georgia	24-29	L	29.9 - 30.4	L
27-Oct	at Missouri	10-33	L	13.8 - 29.0	L
3-Nov	Vanderbilt	0-40	L	16.3 - 32.3	L
17-Nov	Samford	34-3	W	28.8 - 6.9	W
24-Nov	at Tennessee	17-37	L	19.9 - 30.3	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	17.9	119	31.0	86
Adj. Points Per Game	22.7	109	29.2	71

3. Injuries hurt

Again, Kentucky was really young in 2012, to the point where the Wildcats weren't going to seriously threaten for bowl eligibility even with strong health. But once players started dropping like flies, the results got ugly. As you see above, Kentucky was reasonably decent early in the season. Yes, they lost to in-state mates Louisville and Western Kentucky, but a) both of those teams were pretty good, b) both of those teams were quite good in September, and c) in between, the Wildcats took out a Kent State team that turned out to be quite good, as well. But things got really hairy, really quickly.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Kentucky 33.6, Opponent 26.0 (plus-7.6)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 9 games): Opponent 30.3, Kentucky 19.0 (minus-11.3)

If you remove the Samford game, the Adj. PPG averages for the last eight games fall to Opponent 33.2, Kentucky 17.8. This team didn't have much depth, and once you skimmed off the top layer -- quarterback Morgan Newton played in just seven games, quarterback Maxwell Smith in four, leading rusher Raymond Sanders missed one game, while fellow CoShik Williams missed 10, and bodies were dropping left and right in the defensive secondary -- there was nothing left behind it. Kentucky's defense regressed, and its offense vanished.

I saw this team in person when the Wildcats came to Missouri, and I was actually rather impressed with what Kentucky was trying to do tactically. It's just that the Wildcats didn't even remotely have the talent to pull off what they were trying to do.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	115	80	75	84
RUSHING	89	34	44	25
PASSING	106	111	99	116
Standard Downs		67	61	69
Passing Downs		94	90	99
Redzone		31	30	38

Q1 Rk	84	1st Down Rk	72
Q2 Rk	74	2nd Down Rk	108
Q3 Rk	88	3rd Down Rk	49
Q4 Rk	95

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Maxwell Smith

6'4, 232

So.

*** (5.5)

103

150

975

68.7%

3.2%

6.1

Jalen Whitlow

6'2, 208

So.

*** (5.5)

161

801

54.0%

8.5%

4.0

Patrick Towles

6'5, 234

So.

**** (5.8)

233

47.5%

9.1%

4.5

Morgan Newton

31.3%

3.0%

1.9

4. Pick a sophomore quarterback … any sophomore quarterback ...

More than anything else, there's one specific reason why Kentucky's offensive production fell apart after three weeks: Maxwell Smith also got hurt after three weeks. He missed the Florida game, took a couple of snaps in the South Carolina game and was done for the season.

While his numbers weren't spectacular (6.1 yards per pass attempt is below average, even with a sparkling 69 percent completion rate), they were infinitely better than those of everybody else who took snaps in 2012. Senior Morgan Newton was such a good quarterback that the New York Giants just signed him as a tight end, and two true freshmen -- Jalen Whitlow and Patrick Towles -- just weren't ready for prime time.

This spring, there was no clear standout in the race to become Stoops' first starting quarterback. Neal Brown's offensive system puts a lot on the shoulders of the guy behind center, and Smith's ability to throw quick, accurate passes would seem to give him an edge, but Whitlow had the best spring game, and the competition is ongoing.

Jalen Whitlow. Andy Lyons, Getty.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Raymond Sanders III	RB	5'8, 199	Sr.	*** (5.7)	125	669	5.4	5.5	5	+8.6
Jonathan George	RB	5'10, 221	Sr.	** (4.9)	108	504	4.7	4.7	4	+0.1
Jalen Whitlow	QB	6'2, 208	So.	*** (5.5)	53	301	5.7	4.1	3	+4.5
Dyshawn Mobley	RB	5'11, 216	So.	*** (5.6)	41	184	4.5	4.1	0	-0.9
Morgan Newton	QB				15	72	4.8	6.4	1	+0.4
CoShik Williams	RB				14	66	4.7	2.4	0	+0.1
Patrick Towles	QB	6'5, 234	So.	**** (5.8)	7	22	3.1	1.6	0	-1.3
Justin Taylor	RB	5'10, 217	RSFr.	*** (5.7)	5	20	4.0	5.1	0	-0.7
Jojo Kemp	RB	5'10, 190	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Khalid Thomas	RB	5'10, 175	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

La'Rod King

488

55.2%

5.6

23.8%

58.6%

5.6

58.2

Demarco Robinson

5'10, 159

Jr.

*** (5.6)

297

57.1%

6.1

13.4%

65.3%

5.9

35.4

Aaron Boyd

233

63.2%

6.1

10.4%

52.6%

5.9

27.8

Daryl Collins

5'11, 205

So.

*** (5.6)

171

51.5%

5.2

9.0%

42.4%

4.6

20.4

Gene McCaskill

153

62.1%

5.3

7.9%

55.2%

5.2

18.2

Raymond Sanders III

5'8, 199

Sr.

*** (5.7)

111

64.3%

4.0

7.7%

57.1%

4.1

13.2

Jonathan George

5'10, 221

Sr.

** (4.9)

223

84.0%

8.9

6.8%

56.0%

9.0

26.6

Ronnie Shields

6'5, 234

Jr.

** (5.4)

52.9%

4.0

4.7%

58.8%

4.0

8.1

Tyler Robinson

6'3, 261

Sr.

** (5.4)

64.3%

6.9

3.8%

64.3%

6.9

11.6

A.J. Legree

6'1, 188

So.

*** (5.6)

113

100.0%

9.4

3.3%

25.0%

10.8

13.5

DeMarcus Sweat

6'1, 196

So.

*** (5.5)

44.4%

9.3

2.5%

77.8%

7.3

10.0

E.J. Fields

44.4%

2.6

2.5%

33.3%

3.4

2.7

Javess Blue

6'0, 190

Jr.

*** (5.6)

Steven Borden

6'3, 250

Jr.

** (5.4)

Ryan Timmons

5'10, 185

Fr.

*** (5.7)

Alex Montgomery

6'2, 210

Fr.

*** (5.7)

5. Personnel vs. System

Neal Brown likes to pass. A lot.

With Brown as offensive coordinator in 2012, Texas Tech ran just 39 percent of the time on standard downs, the second-lowest percentage in the country behind Washington State. The Red Raiders ran just 26 percent of the time on passing downs as well, which was 104th. His hire is a fun nod to Kentucky's Air Raid days with head coach Hal Mumme and offensive coordinator Mike Leach (now the head coach of the aforementioned Washington State Cougars), but it will be interesting to see how his play-calling meshes with the talent on hand.

Why? Because most of the talent on hand is at the running back position. Raymond Sanders III is shifty, explosive and a strong receiver out of the backfield. His backfield mates Jonathan George and Dyshawn Mobley also showed more potential than just about anybody at receiver for this team last year. Granted, the receivers were done no favors by their exploding Spinal Tap drummers* at quarterback, but drops were a constant issue, and yards after catch were minimal. Demarco Robinson had a 47-yard catch in the spring game, which is fine, but consider me a skeptic.

A Neal Brown offense has almost no choice but to be pretty efficient, but I don't see much explosiveness here.

* I love that reference, but I also make it too much. This will be the only time I use it in the 2013 previews. Hold me to that. I already regret not being able to use it to describe Maryland quarterbacks, Iowa running backs, or Missouri offensive linemen.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.6	3.05	2.81	38.9%	58.6%	18.5%	94.7	5.9%	7.0%
Rank	24	50	98	65	105	54	67	85	73

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Larry Warford	RG				37 career starts; 2012 2nd All-SEC
Matt Smith	C				34 career starts
Darrian Miller	LT	6'5, 288	Jr.	*** (5.7)	14 career starts
Kevin Mitchell	RT	6'6, 296	Sr.	** (5.4)	13 career starts
Zach West	LG	6'4, 312	So.	*** (5.7)	12 career starts
Trevino Woods	RT
Teven Eatmon-Nared	LG	6'7, 339	Jr.	** (5.4)
Max Godby	C	6'4, 291	Jr.	NR
John Gruenschlaeger	RG	6'11, 340	So.	NR
Jordan Swindle	LT	6'7, 299	So.	*** (5.5)
Zach Myers	C	6'3, 289	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Jordan Watson	OG	6'4, 322	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Kyle Meadows	OL	6'5, 270	Fr.	*** (5.7)

6. Hope on the line

Perhaps the most frustrating part of Kentucky's offensive performance in 2012 was that it wasted a strong performance from an enormous line. Larry Warford earned second-team all-conference honors and a third-round selection by the Detroit Lions, and Kentucky ranked in the Adj. Line Yards top 25 (that their raw numbers were so bad and their schedule-adjusted numbers were so good is a nice reminder that the Wildcats play in the SEC). Warford and three-year starting center Matt Smith are gone, but there is hope here.

Okay, I don't actually know about hope here. But I do know about size. Players like Teven Eatmon-Nared, John Gruenschlaeger, and Jordan Swindle (average size among them: 6'8, 326) could play a role in the rotation. And hey, if your talent and experience are questionable, you might as well throw out some big bodies in the hopes that it takes defenders longer to run around them. And my goodness, do I want to see a 6'11 guard in action.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	60	75	109	55
RUSHING	63	87	112	62
PASSING	58	67	97	57
Standard Downs		84	117	58
Passing Downs		69	84	55
Redzone		104	119	85

Q1 Rk	99	1st Down Rk	46
Q2 Rk	74	2nd Down Rk	38
Q3 Rk	37	3rd Down Rk	120
Q4 Rk	17

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	91.2	3.29	3.17	41.0%	75.8%	15.2%	107.0	6.0%	7.6%
Rank	102	110	53	87	113	111	51	25	45

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Collins Ukwu	DE				11	31.0	4.5%	6	4	0	1	2	0
Donte Rumph	DT	6'3, 323	Sr.	*** (5.6)	11	26.0	3.8%	6	4	0	0	1	0
Mister Cobble	DT	6'0, 340	Sr.	** (5.4)	10	22.5	3.3%	3	2	0	0	0	0
Taylor Wyndham	DE				12	21.5	3.2%	6	2	0	2	0	1
Tristian Johnson	DT	6'1, 277	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	17.0	2.5%	2.5	1.5	0	2	0	1
Mike Douglas	DT	6'4, 269	Jr.	*** (5.6)	12	9.5	1.4%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Farrington Huguenin	DE	6'4, 269	So.	** (5.4)	12	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	1	1
Alvin Davis, Jr.	DE	6'4, 269	Jr.	*** (5.5)	12	4.5	0.7%	1	1	0	1	0	0
TraVaughn Paschal	DE	6'4, 250	Jr.	NR	7	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Christian Coleman	DT	6'3, 295	Jr.	*** (5.5)	8	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Thomas Chapman	DT	6'4, 309	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Langston Newton	DE	6'4, 271	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Za'Darius Smith	DE	6'6, 250	Jr.	**** (5.8)
Jason Hatcher	DE	6'3, 250	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Alvonte Bell	DE	6'5, 255	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Jacob Hyde	DT	6'2, 330	Fr.	*** (5.6)

7. Hello, reinforcements

The SEC is known for, among other things, ridiculous defensive lines. In terms of Adj. Line Yards, the conference claimed seven of the top 16 spots in the rankings -- Alabama was No. 3, LSU No. 5, Florida No. 7, Missouri No. 9, Ole Miss No. 10, Texas A&M No. 11, Arkansas No. 16.

Kentucky, on the other hand, was awful up front. The Wildcats could rush the passer to a decent degree, but they got pushed around terribly against the run. Their No. 102 ranking in Adj. Line Yards was easily the worst in the SEC and was the sixth-worst among all BCS conference teams (fourth-worst among BCS teams not in the Big East).

Mark Stoops did as much as he could to rectify this deficiency in his first recruiting class. Two of his three four-star signees were defensive linemen, and another two were mid- to high-three stars. Add in a pair of interesting redshirt freshmen, and you've got some potential reinforcements for a line that needed a lot of it. Both starting ends must be replaced, but it is difficult to imagine some combination of newcomer Za'Darius Smith (who had a lovely spring), redshirt freshman Langston Newton and a freshman or two not combining to at least match the six sacks that Collins Ukwu and Taylor Wyndham managed. And while tackles Donte Rumph and Mister Cobble are both wonderfully named and enormous, they could get some help from players like Thomas Chapman.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Avery Williamson	MLB	6'1, 241	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	102.5	15.0%	4.5	3	1	4	2	1
Alvin Dupree	WLB	6'4, 254	Jr.	*** (5.6)	12	72.5	10.6%	12.5	6.5	0	1	0	0
Miles Simpson	OLB	6'2, 228	Jr.	*** (5.6)	12	56.5	8.3%	1.5	1	0	4	0	1
Khalid Henderson	WLB	6'1, 224	So.	*** (5.5)	12	20.0	2.9%	0	0	0	1	0	1
Pancho Thomas	MLB	6'0, 225	So.	*** (5.6)	10	10.0	1.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Forrest	OLB	6'3, 241	So.	*** (5.6)	9	9.5	1.4%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Kory Brown	OLB	6'0, 205	Jr.	*** (5.5)	8	7.5	1.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Malcom McDuffen	WLB	6'3, 220	Jr.	*** (5.5)	12	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Tyler Brause	MLB	6'4, 240	Jr.	*** (5.5)	9	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Demarius Rancifer	LB	6'2, 216	So.	*** (5.6)	11	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Martavius Neloms	S				10	42.0	6.2%	1	0	1	0	2	0
Cartier Rice	CB				11	35.0	5.1%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Ashely Lowery	S	6'1, 219	Jr.	*** (5.6)	8	35.0	5.1%	1	0	1	1	0	0
Fred Tiller	CB	6'0, 170	So.	*** (5.6)	11	23.5	3.4%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Cody Quinn	CB	5'10, 177	So.	*** (5.5)	11	23.0	3.4%	0	0	0	5	0	0
J.D. Harmon	CB	6'2, 191	So.	NR	12	20.5	3.0%	0	0	2	4	0	0
Mikie Benton	S				10	17.5	2.6%	3	0	0	0	1	0
Daron Blaylock	S	6'1, 213	So.	*** (5.5)	11	11.5	1.7%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Zack Blaylock	S	6'0, 191	So.	*** (5.7)	11	11.5	1.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dakotah Tyler	S	5'11, 207	Sr.	*** (5.5)	5	9.5	1.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Eric Dixon	S	5'11, 189	Jr.	*** (5.6)	8	4.0	0.6%	1	1	0	0	1	0
Nate Willis	DB	6'0, 180	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Marcus McWilson	S	6'0, 210	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Blake McCain	DB	5'11, 190	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Jaleel Hytchye	CB	5'10, 175	Fr.	*** (5.7)

8. Yesterday's extreme youth is tomorrow's vast experience

That's the mantra for the back seven of Kentucky's defense. Last year, sophomores like Alvin Dupree, Miles Simpson, and Ashely Lowery and freshmen like Fred Tiller, Cody Quinn, J.D. Harmon, Khalid Henderson, and Pancho Thomas all got extensive playing time. If you're going to play that many ultra-young players, they better be five-star guys if you want to survive (especially if you have a porous line).

These weren't, but while this unit might still struggle quite a bit in 2013, all of these players will still have eligibility left in 2014, as will quite a few interesting incoming freshmen.

Alvin Dupree. John Sommers, Getty.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Landon Foster	6'1, 206	So.	61	42.9	3	14	13	44.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Joe Mansour	6'2, 188	Sr.	28	59.0	12	42.9%
Craig McIntosh			13	62.8	3	23.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Craig McIntosh			27-27	4-5	80.0%	4-10	40.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
DeMarcus Sweat	KR	6'1, 196	So.	25	20.5	0
Raymond Sanders III	KR	5'8, 199	Sr.	10	22.3	0
Daryl Collins	KR	5'11, 205	So.	6	22.2	0
Demarco Robinson	PR	5'10, 159	Jr.	18	6.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	77
Net Punting	19
Net Kickoffs	66
Touchback Pct	59
Field Goal Pct	119
Kick Returns Avg	72
Punt Returns Avg	79

9. Landon Foster is a weapon

While the Kentucky offense will almost certainly improve, let's just say that punter Landon Foster, who boomed Kentucky into the Net Punting top 20 as a freshman, is still going to get pretty considerable use. He's pretty damn good, so that might not necessarily be a bad thing. If the Kentucky offense can at least score a few more first downs and fewer three-and-outs, that and Foster should combine to help the Wildcats win the field position advantage more often than they did in 2012. And hey man, punters are people, too ...

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	vs. Western Kentucky	94
7-Sep	Miami (Ohio)	106
14-Sep	Louisville	33
28-Sep	Florida	4
5-Oct	at South Carolina	19
12-Oct	Alabama	1
26-Oct	at Mississippi State	51
2-Nov	Alabama State	NR
9-Nov	Missouri	39
16-Nov	at Vanderbilt	49
23-Nov	at Georgia	9
30-Nov	Tennessee	44

Five-Year F/+ Rk	82
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	41
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / +1.6
TO Luck/Game	-1.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (6, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+5.0

10. Building for 2014

Let's put it this way: last year in the F/+ rankings, Kentucky ranked 54 spots behind anybody else in the SEC East. Of the 842 FBS teams who have played since 2006, only 28 of them improved by more than 50 spots in one year. Granted, almost half of FBS doesn't have a chance to improve by 50 spots in a given year. But if you remove the Top 50 from consideration, that still means that only about 5.6 percent of teams ranked 51st or worst in a given year improve by 50 spots (or in Kentucky's case, catch up to the rest of the division).

So the odds are very good that Kentucky will be the worst team in the East again, perhaps by a considerable margin. That the Wildcats drew Alabama from the West and host Louisville (which isn't projected nearly as high as conventional wisdom would suggest, but is still probably much better than Kentucky) makes this a rather brutal schedule, one that likely won't produce six wins.

When you fall apart to this degree, a quick fix almost certainly isn't going to happen. It will probably be another painful season in Lexington, but the combination of experience and improved recruiting might ensure that Kentucky becomes interesting as early as 2014.

More from SB Nation:

• Oklahoma State’s insane transfer restrictions list

• Johnny Manziel’s greatest Alabama-trolling yet

• The program with the country’s strangest recruiting Photoshops

• Bill Connelly: Yep, Notre Dame’s going to be really good again

Mizzou 5, Hofstra 0
MUtigers.com: Thomas, Roth, Hudson Power Mizzou to Sixth Regional Title
MUtigers.com: Columbia Regional - Game Seven Notes
MUtigers.com: Columbia Regional - Game Seven Quotes
The Trib: Thomas blanks Hofstra, Missouri advances to super regional

Mizzou Links, 5-20-13

Bill C. — Mon, 20 May 2013 02:29:07 -0000

If we raise enough for the Stubble Drive, can we buy Nicole Hudson another few years of eligibility?

@rockmnation I can vouch for myself! Let's rack up those prop bets!
— Nicole Hudson (@NicoleHudson8) May 20, 2013

1. Movin' right along...

Thomas, suffering from a condition that makes her arm and hand swell and numb when pitching too much on little rest, won for just the second time this season when pitching complete games on back-to-back days. It was her first time doing it since April 13. She will have to do it if MU advances to the Women's College World Series.

"My pitches were working well," Thomas said. "When you're in the season ending game, you dig down pretty deep. I think our team did as a whole."

After the game, Earleywine said, for the first time in six weeks, Thomas felt no symptoms from her condition. He said she is "potentially out of the woods" with the symptoms and may be able to start in the circle the rest of the postseason.

"From this point moving forward, I don't think we're going to have to have any of those converstaions," Earleywine said referring to Thomas' arm. "I think Chelsea is going to be able to throw the duration from here on out."

The Missourian: Missouri softball advances to NCAA Super Regionals with win against Hofstra
KC Star: Missouri beats Hofstra 5-0, advances in NCAA softball tournament
PowerMizzou: Regional Notebook: Perfect Plan
KBIA Sports: Mizzou wins, one step away from another Women’s College World Series

Super Regionals on Thursday and Friday
MUtigers.com: No. 6 Mizzou Set for Thursday-Friday with No. 11 Washington

Washington has two strong pitchers, but it looks like there will be no resting Chelsea Thomas from here on out. Barring a change in her (current lack of) symptoms, Ehren Earleywine won't have to think as hard about how to use his pitching staff this coming Thursday and Friday. He'll just put Chelsea out there non-stop.

2. Baseball secures No. 12 seed at SEC Tournament

The win on Friday clinched it
MUtigers.com: Mizzou Clinches Spot in SEC Tournament With 4-3 Win
MUtigers.com: Mizzou Drops Finale, Takes 12-Seed to SEC Tournament
MUtigers.com: Tigers Head to Hoover for SEC Tournament
SimmonsField.com: Top 9 Things You Want to Know About MU in the SEC Baseball Tournament
SimmonsField.com: SEC Tournament: The Road to Hoover
The Trib: Anderson leads Missouri to series win, spot in SEC Tournament
The Trib: Tigers will catch their Zs in Hoover
The Missourian: Victory earns Missouri baseball team trip to SEC tournament
The Missourian: Zastryzny hopes to extend his pitching career with Missouri baseball team
Mizzou Network (YouTube): Mizzou vs Kentucky Baseball Highlights
Mizzou Network (YouTube): Mizzou Baseball Senior Day Ceremony

Construction
Mizzou Baseball Construction Update - MUTIGERS.COM - The University of Missouri Official Athletic Site

In addition to Earleywine resting Chelsea for the first game on Sunday, there was another pretty ballsy pitching decision made on the diamond(s) this weekend: Baseball coach Tim Jamieson rested Rob Zastryzny for the first two games of the Kentucky series in the hopes that Mizzou could clinch an SEC Tournament bid and keep him rested for the opening game on Tuesday. It worked out. Mizzou won the first two games and clinched the bid, and now Rob Z will be ready to go against Mississippi State. He has been fantastic down the stretch, and he has a chance to lead an upset bid and make it into the main tourney field. With the way this season began (and continued), making it into the final eight of the SEC Tournament has to be considered quite the moral victory.

3. Offensive lineman Paul Adams commits to Mizzou Football

Adams
PowerMizzou.com - Mizzou strikes again in Tennessee

Looking at Mizzou's commits (and targets)
PowerMizzou.com - Expert Breakdown: Kevin Pendleton
PowerMizzou.com - Expert Breakdown: Michael Fairchild
PowerMizzou.com - Tiger Watch: Linebacker
PowerMizzou.com - Tiger Watch: Cornerbacks

It kind of got lost amid the diamond activity, but Mizzou added another offensive lineman on Friday when Nashville's Paul Adams selected the Tigers over offers from Cincinnati, Mississippi State, and South Florida. We'll see if it pays off down the line, but Mizzou is focusing quite a bit more on the state of Tennessee in this class than we perhaps expected; Mizzou almost has as many commits from TN (3) as MO (4).

Here's some film:

You'll almost never see high school OL film that doesn't look strong and dominant, but ... Adams certainly looks strong and dominant here. Analysis!

4. Disappointing finish for Men's Golf

MUtigers.com: Missouri Golf Finishes Eighth At NCAA Columbus Regional
MUtigers.com: Leroux Adds Missouri Native Judd Easterling To Coaching Staff
The Trib: Missouri puts more resources into golf

5. Congrats, Grads

We Are Mizzou: MizzouMade: Graduation
The Missourian: Laurence Bowers ready for whatever the future holds

Music Monday

I had fun looking up those Steve Wonder videos last week, so I figure I'll try to start up a Music Monday feature for the summer months. In it, I'll put together a mini-playlist for a musician or band I like. Simple, huh?

Today, here are five Pearl Jam songs you might not know unless you're already a Pearl Jam fan. So no major radio singles, nothing from Ten or Vs. Pearl Jam has remained interesting and relevant in the 20 years since Ten came out. I quietly get annoyed anytime I hear "Evenflow" or "Alive" on the radio because they've made too much great music since then to be relegated to 'classic rock.' But I'm a snob like that. Regardless, I'm pretty sure "Unthought Known" is my new favorite PJ song ... "In Hiding," you had a great run.

2013 NCAA Softball regionals: Mizzou advances to sixth straight Super Regional

Bill C. — Sun, 19 May 2013 21:52:02 -0000

The bats came alive just in time. After losing the first game of the day, 10-0, with Nicole Hudson on the mound, and after scoring just four runs with seven hits in three games, Mizzou's offense found a rhythm against exhausted Hofstra ace Olivia Galati. In the final game of the regional, Kelsea Roth and Nicole Hudson hit home runs, Mizzou pounded out eight hits, and the Tigers eventually won, 5-0.

Chelsea Thomas has seen her innings limited by injury, but not her effectiveness. She allowed just one hit, struck out nine, improved as the afternoon progressed, and brought home her second win of the regional. And while Hudson got shelled in the first game of the day, her Friday win over Stony Brook allowed for Mizzou to get away with Thomas pitching only twice.

This will be the Tigers' sixth consecutive Super Regional appearance, an incredible run for Ehren Earleywine and Team Stubble. Mizzou will face No. 11 Washington in Columbia next weekend. Survive, advance, celebrate.

2013 NCAA softball live thread: Columbia Regional (Day 3)

Bill C. — Sun, 19 May 2013 12:30:17 -0000

The Tigers' 1-0 win over Hofstra, in what I yesterday called the biggest game of the season, created a new biggest game (or two) of the season. Win one of two today, and you reach the Super Regionals, likely against No. 11 Washington, which is 2-0 in its region.

The benefits to beating Hofstra were immediately evident yesterday evening. Hofstra's ace Olivia Galati was forced to not only pitch another game against Oregon State, but she was also forced to go to extra innings. Hofstra eventually beat the Beavers in 10, but Galati had to throw 197 pitches on Saturday and now must beat Missouri twice on Sunday. Since Friday afternoon, Galati has pitched 23.0 innings and faced 87 batters. Granted, only 16 of them got hits (Missouri was 1-for-18), but one has to hope that fatigue sets in at some point. She has been incredible so far, allowing only four earned runs all weekend, but all four came in the last six innings she pitched. Fingers crossed.

As for Missouri, one also has to hope that a) the bats wake up at some point, and b) if Chelsea Thomas isn't 100%, that Nicole Hudson can keep the ball down and keep Missouri in the game. At this point, I'm almost assuming that Hudson pitches Game 1 today -- which is really pretty good strategy as long as she keeps the game close enough that Galati has to remain in -- but we'll see.

1:00 p.m. CT
Mizzou vs. Hofstra, Game 1 (ESPN3, Gametracker)

3:30 p.m. CT (if necessary)
Mizzou vs. Hofstra, Game 2

**********

MUtigers.com: Crane's RBI Leads Mizzou to Regional Final, 1-0
MUtigers.com: Columbia Regional: Game Three (Mizzou 1, Hofstra 0) - Notes
MUtigers.com: Columbia Regional: Game Three (Mizzou 1, Hofstra 0) - Quotes - Hofstra
The Trib: Missouri escapes with 1-0 win, advances to Sunday's regional final
The Missourian: Hudson's throw, Marston's tag lead Missouri to 1-0 win over Hofstra
KC Star: Missouri softball beats Hofstra and reaches final of NCAA regional
PowerMizzou: Regional Notebook: Tigers survive
KBIA Sports: With little offense, Missouri beats Hofstra 1-0 in regional game

2013 NCAA softball live thread: Columbia Regional (Day 2)

Bill C. — Sat, 18 May 2013 12:07:54 -0000

There's quite a bit going on around Columbia today. First, you've got graduation, which ... congrats, grads (especially Rock M'ers)! But there's a lot going on for Mizzou athletics. A lot.

Mizzou Baseball has clinched a spot in the SEC Tournament with two wins over Kentucky; a third today would clinch the No. 11 seed instead of No. 12.

Plus, Mizzou Men's Golf attempts to come back after a rather awful Friday at the Columbus Regional. The top five teams advance to the NCAAs, and while Mizzou was the fifth-ranked team in the region, they fell to seventh and are currently seven shots back of No. 5. If there's good news here, it's that they're also 'only' 10 shots back of No. 1. There's a cluster of teams ahead of Mizzou, and if a couple falter, the Tigers could bounce back. One Mizzou player has already started, and the others are about to.

Of course, the main event is at University Field, where Mizzou Softball plays what is, frankly, its single biggest game of the season. The Tigers got past Stony Brook, 3-0, yesterday evening; not only did Nicole Hudson save Chelsea Thomas' arm with a complete game, but she also pitched really well. The kept the ball low and induced a ton of grounders, and her defense sparkled. That's good because the bats were tight; Mizzou didn't manage a serious threat until the fifth, when Jenna Marston knocked a three-run home run, her first of the season. (Pretty good timing there.)

The stakes for Missouri are very clear. Beat Hofstra at noon, and you only have to win one of two games tomorrow (probably versus Hofstra again) to advance. You can pitch Hudson in the first of those two games, hopefully wear out Hofstra's masterful pitcher, Olivia Galati, a bit, and bring a rested Chelsea Thomas to the mound for the second (if necessary) game. But if Galati outduels Thomas today, Mizzou will have to beat the Oregon State-Stony Brook winner at 5pm, then beat Hofstra twice tomorrow. You have to win three games in a row, and there is a possibility that Thomas would be available for only one. That's terrifying.

So yeah. Win at noon, ladies. Please win at noon.

**********

Now
NCAA Golf Regionals: Mizzou at the Columbus Regional

12:00 p.m. CT
NCAA Softball: Mizzou vs. Hofstra

1:00 p.m. CT
Baseball: Mizzou vs. Kentucky

2:30 p.m. CT
NCAA Softball: Oregon State vs. Stony Brook

5:00 p.m. CT
NCAA Softball: Mizzou-Hofstra loser vs. OSU-SB winner

NCAA softball live thread: Columbia Regional (Day 1)

Bill C. — Fri, 17 May 2013 18:03:08 -0000

What: The NCAA softball regionals
Where: University Field
When: This afternoon

Who: Hofstra vs. Oregon State (3:00 p.m. CT) and Mizzou vs. Stony Brook (5:30 p.m. CT)

TV (sort of): ESPN3
MUtigers.com: Tourney Central

Can't make it to University Field? Hang out here! And hey, you've got a cell phone. Hang out here even if you're at University Field.

M-I-Z...

THE SEASON STARTS TONIGHT! #Mizzou, @ncaasoftball is here! twitter.com/MizzouSoftball…
— Mizzou Softball (@MizzouSoftball) May 17, 2013

#MIZ // RT @kaykingsley11: The road to the College World Series starts today! twitter.com/KayKingsley11/…
— Mizzou Softball (@MizzouSoftball) May 17, 2013

University Field is ready! Two hours out from the first @ncaasoftball action... the road to the #WCWS begins! twitpic.com/cr8xdw
— Mizzou Softball (@MizzouSoftball) May 17, 2013

#MIZ #SEC @ncaasoftball twitpic.com/cr98ub
— Mizzou Softball (@MizzouSoftball) May 17, 2013

2013 NCAA Softball Tournament, Columbia Regional: Seeds hold, Mizzou & Hofstra to meet Saturday

Bill C. — Fri, 17 May 2013 10:45:23 -0000

With rain in the forecast, Friday games will begin at 2:30 p.m. CT.

Once upon a time, in a land of fewer children, a less-stringent web filter at work and before job promotions, I used to find the time to pen some pieces in the “Know Your Opponent” series. The last one of these I was able to do was before the LSU Super Regional last year, so it has been awhile. Thanks to the hard work of CPC earlier this year, we were able to get some weekly stuff up on the site until things go crazy for the both of us. Hopefully this piece can serve as a launching point for the discussion on the weekend to come. For those of you new to the NCAA Softball Championships, the first round features 16, 4-team pods. Each group has a nationally seeded (top-16) team and three others which will play a double-elimination format to determine a winner. The group is seeded 1-4, so that means first up for the Tigers will be the Stony Brook Sea Wolves, as they are the only team which MU is guaranteed to see. I will cover them and other teams in the days to come, though it is possible MU only plays one of the other two. And since I am nothing if not formulaic, I am going to use the same setup as I did previously, so let’s get right to it.

MU since last we talked

I may as well review the entire year as quickly as possible. Here goes….

February was a mix of weather issues and wins, as the Tigers hit the road for all of the month and came back with nine wins, four rainouts, and two losses, though each of a different nature. In the wins, we were hitting homeruns and pitching well against mostly sub-90 RPI teams, though we did sprinkle in a thrilling 4-3 win in 12 innings over Florida. In the four rainouts we saw what was to come all year. In one loss, we fell to #57 Fullerton 5-4. In the other loss, we lost Bailey Erwin as our #2 pitcher, who suddenly quit the team before conference play would start in early March

A word (or some words) on what this cost MU

So Bailey Erwin last pitched for Mizzou against Fullerton in a game which Mizzou lost (would be their first loss of the year) on Feb 23rd. From there, they would go on to lose 10 more games. Here they are, along with my thoughts on if Erwin would have made a difference:

vs. aTm 11-3: Thomas was shelled early in this one after beating the Ags the day before 2-0. Mizzou did score some runs, but this one is tough to judge because aTm would have been the best Erwin faced by far at that point in the season.
vs. Alabama 4-1: Thomas took the loss in the series opener. Erwin would not have pitched
vs. Alabama 14-6: So Thomas came back the next day to beat ‘Bama 9-4. If we assume the preferred would have been to rest Chelsea in the middle game, do we believe Erwin holds ‘Bama to 8 or less? This is where this activity gets a little tricky
vs. Arkansas 4-1 in 11 innings: Thomas won the night before and was pitching fine before three unearned runs derailed the Tigers late.
vs. Arkansas 11-10 in 8: Another case where Erwin would have likely pitched on Saturday, allowing Thomas an extra day of rest for the return match on Sunday. So it may not be a question of whether or not Erwin won on Saturday, but would Thomas win on Sunday as a result of the extra day off?
vs. LSU 8-0: By this point, Coach E had gone to the Thomas-Hudson-Thomas rotation, and we took the games Thomas started. I don’t see that Erwin would have fared much better here.
vs. WKU 1-0: So this is a somewhat obvious one which I think people get wrong. Hudson pitched both games of this twin-bill (against the #27 team) and only gave up 2 runs total. We just did not score any (obviously) in one of those. Does that suddenly change with Erwin on the mound? I don’t feel like it does.
vs. Kentucky 8-2: Again, another weekend where the Tigers took 2 of 3 on the road against a ranked team.
vs. Tenn 10-1: Same as above, except they did it at home this time.

So in the end, I personally think (and everyone is welcome to draw and discuss their own conclusions in the comments if you are so inclined) the lack of Erwin cost us a game against Arkansas…and that is it. Yes, I can see the argument for games against aTm and Kentucky. As for Alabama, since Chelsea lost the series opener, I think a day off on Saturday would have resulted in Erwin losing the game we actually won, with Chelsea then winning a game we lost, so no change. Against LSU and Tenn, I just don’t see it making any more difference. So let’s say I split with people on aTm/Kentucky and give up one more win. So that puts us at 37-9 overall, 17-6 in conference. As Florida was 18-6, they would have still been #1, making our path to the SEC finals barely different (would have faced #10 South Carolina instead of #6 Arkansas).

In terms of games to come, from a RPI standpoint, we were 7th and ultimately seeded 6th. Maybe we earn another spot up the chain to 5th seed, but considering RPI was not an EXACT indicator for where teams were seeded, going any further would be tough and without a lot of merit (which is saying something considering how much I have just written). Is Chelsea’s arm any more or less tired at this point in the year? It might be a LITTLE better, but not much. Would Erwin help going forward? I believe yes she would, and that is where the biggest impact will be. …but I will get into that later.

Back to MU’s season

Well, the part about Bailey really kind of summed it up. To fill in some blanks, MU was hot in March, losing only to aTm before winning 12 in a row over Evansville, Ole Miss, Ga Tech, South Carolina and SMS, taking us to April 3rd. From April 5th to the end of the month, MU would scuffle a bit as they take on some tough teams and try to figure out the weekend pitching, going 7-7 with the losses outlined above. May has proven to be better for the Tigers thus far, as they are 6-2 with wins over W. Illinois (2), Tenn (3) and Arkansas.

MU Regular Season Offensive Leaders:

Batting Average: Emily Crane - .373 (Marston at .366 and Hudson at .323 for the only three to play in each of MU’s 46 games)
OBP: Nicole Hudson - .483
Slugging: Kelsea Roth - .725 (ahead of Hudson at .723)
Runs: Nicole Hudson – 36 (Crane with 35 and Marston/Sykes with 33)
HR's: Kelsea Roth and Nicole Hudson – 15 (next is Angela Randazzo with 8)
RBI's: Angela Randazzo – 47 (Hudson with 43 and Roth with 41)
XBH: Nicole Hudson – 22 (7/0/15)
Walks: Nicole Hudson - 41
SB's: Emily Crane - 13
Team Batting/OBP/Slugging: .320 (up 50 points from last year)/.416/.531 (up 101 points from last year)

Mizzou Links, 5-17-13

Bill C. — Fri, 17 May 2013 09:42:03 -0000

1. The NCAAs begin today for Team Stubble (and yes, it might rain)

MUtigers.com: No. 6 Mizzou Starts Columbia Regional with Stony Brook
MUtigers.com: Time Changes for Day One of Columbia Regional

COLUMBIA REGIONAL SCHEDULE (CT)

Friday, May 17
3 p.m. - Game One: Oregon State vs. Hofstra
5:30 p.m. - Game Two: Mizzou vs. Stony Brook

Saturday, May 18
Noon - Game Three: Winner G1 vs. Winner G2
2:30 p.m. - Game Four: Loser G1 vs. Loser G2 (loser eliminated)
5 p.m. - Game Five: Loser G3 vs. Winner G4 (loser eliminated)

Sunday, May 19
1 p.m. - Game Six: Winner G3 vs. Winner G5
3:30 p.m. - Game Seven (if necessary)

The Trib: Earleywine speaks; the blog listens

Earleywine is still deciding whether Thomas or No. 2 Nicole Hudson will start Friday against Stony Brook, a team with a 123 RPI. Thomas, as we reported in Tuesday's Trib, is likely suffering from exertional compartment syndrome, causing her hand to swell, go numb and tingle after several innings pitched in little time. Earleywine said he's not leaning either way and gave reasons why both could start. He said Stony Brook's lineup is full of high-ball hitters, which "bodes well" for Hudson, who throws mostly down balls. Ultimately, though, Earleywine said it depends on how Thomas feels. "Potentially, if she's feeling better than she has leading up to the last four weekends, there's a potential of maybe throwing her on Friday," he said. Thomas said Thursday that she's feeling good. Earleywine said he'll make a decision likely by noon Friday. […]

Earleywine is very blunt about how important Friday's opener is for Missouri's bats. If Missouri starts Nicole Hudson, they'll need to have run support behind the makeshift No. 2. If MU starts Thomas, they'll need to limit her pitches by scoring runs and possibly shortening the game. "The fact of the matter is, if we don't show up on Friday, our season will be over this weekend," he said. "So just trying to make that as crystal clear as possible. You've got to treat Friday's game like a championship game because if that goes a wry we're in big trouble." MU would have to win four games in two days to win the regional if it lost the opener.

The Missourian: Chelsea Thomas battles arm injury as Missouri softball enters postseason
KC Star: MU softball coach’s quandary: Save Thomas for later in regional?
MUtigers.com: Four Tigers Named All-Southeast Region

2. One more Mizzou win or one more Tennessee loss...

MUtigers.com: Tigers Move Closer to SEC Tournament with 4-2 Win
SimmonsField.com: The Magic Number is 1; Interesting Quotes; Smart Alum
The Trib: Missouri beats Kentucky in series opener
The Missourian: Seniors Sommerfeld and Champagne continue resurgence for Missouri baseball team
The Trib: Renovations begin as MU baseball set to close SEC baseball season

3. Flip auditions

The Trib: Pressey to attend NBA predraft camp
Post-Dispatch: Pressey wants to be seen as playmaker

4. Men's golf needs to move up the list a bit

MUtigers.com: Missouri Golf In Contention At NCAA Columbus Regional
The Missourian: Missouri golfers sixth after first round of NCAA Columbus Regional

5. Hmm. You might want to practice that a little more, Ian.

KINSLER SLIDE GIF IMMEDIATELY INTERNET
— Greg Tepper (@Tepper) May 17, 2013

Kinsler slide gif. HAIL @corkgaines. RT @corkgaines: farm9.staticflickr.com/8268/874507468…
— Greg Tepper (@Tepper) May 17, 2013

6. Read this. Now. Just read it.

SB Nation Longforms: To Slovakia: A first-hand account of basketball and chaos in Europe

We knew that, Otto. But you didn't have to confirm it.

Bill C. — Thu, 16 May 2013 15:45:33 -0000

We knew that, Otto. But you didn't have to confirm it.

You really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really didn't have to confirm it.

2013 Notre Dame football's 10 things to know: The Irish aren't going away

Bill C. — Wed, 15 May 2013 19:55:15 -0000

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Nailed it (sort of)

Just as the folks whose opinions tend to create conventional wisdom give up on the Irish, the numbers conspire to prop them up. And the reason should be obvious for anybody who watched Notre Dame in 2011: turnovers. Surely they cannot go against the Irish to the same degree in 2012, right? Surely, if Tommy Rees is even the starting quarterback, he won't have quite the same red zone interception tendencies, right? Surely Notre Dame opponents won't do quite as much damage with the turnovers they receive, right? […]

It is difficult to ignore just how well Notre Dame has recruited recently, just how much the stats like them, and just how much turnovers -- a notoriously fickle statistic from year to year -- conspired against what might have otherwise been a 10- or 11-win season last year. However, it is almost good, in my case, that the schedule is so difficult because it allows me to hedge my bets.

That's from last year's Notre Dame preview. That last-second hedge ruined it.

Last year, I talked myself into Notre Dame to what I figured was a dangerous degree. The Irish were so unlucky in 2011 and so close to something greater, with a No. 13 F/+ ranking and a potentially outstanding defense. They returned so many interesting players, and the depth chart was going to be further plumped up by young blue-chippers. I was ready to go all-in on Notre Dame at the same time that everybody else was cashing out, but I was cowed a bit by the schedule. I figured that even a top-10 performance would still result in a couple of losses along the way. I wasn't really counting on the Irish going 5-0 in one-possession games after losing three heart-breakers the year before.

Really, Notre Dame in 2011 was more like a nine- or 10-win team, and Notre Dame in 2012 was more like a 10- or 11-win team. Regardless, last year's trip to the BCS title game wasn't much of a fluke. This was an elite team, one that simply took one more step in its blue-blood reclamation and got a few of the lucky breaks it very much did not get the year before.

2. This is how it's supposed to go

When you hire a new coach, what you're hoping for is a guy who can make the most of the talent on hand and build onto the foundation, brick by brick, with each passing year. It rarely actually works out that way. There are surges and setbacks, senior classes that cannot be immediately replaced, lulls in development, et cetera. It rarely works out as smoothly as you hope. And to be sure, with some of the turnovers luck and other factors, it wasn't an incredibly smooth first couple of seasons for Brian Kelly in South Bend.

But on paper, the growth has been clear and steady. The defense surged to 16th in Def. F/+, and the offense regressed to 37th in Off. F/+ in Kelly's first season, then both units improved in 2011 (14th and 22nd, respectively) and did so again in 2012 (13th and ninth). An incredible front seven masked deficiencies in the defensive backfield, and a new quarterback helped to create an underrated, efficient offense after a rough first month.

So can Notre Dame improve again in Kelly's fourth year? Don't rule it out. The defense will have to craft a new personality without last year's senior leader, but the front seven is still terrifying, and some blue-chippers (recruiting has just been so damn strong) could help fill out a deeper, more confident secondary. And while sophomore quarterback Everett Golson's go-tos (tight end Tyler Eifert, running back Theo Riddick) have been taken away, the offensive upside might be quite a bit higher this year overall.

We'll see if schedule and bad luck interfere with another run at the national title, but on paper there is a good chance that Kelly's fourth year sees a fourth straight year of improvement.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-1 \| Adj. Record: 13-0 \| Final F/+ Rk: 7
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	vs. Navy	50-10	W	38.7 - 25.5	W
8-Sep	Purdue	20-17	W	24.1 - 18.6	W
15-Sep	at Michigan State	20-3	W	29.3 - 12.8	W
22-Sep	Michigan	13-6	W	25.0 - 19.5	W
6-Oct	vs. Miami	41-3	W	41.2 - 18.3	W
13-Oct	Stanford	20-13	W	34.4 - 22.0	W
20-Oct	BYU	17-14	W	50.6 - 18.8	W
27-Oct	at Oklahoma	30-13	W	34.2 - 19.6	W
3-Nov	Pittsburgh	29-26	W	35.1 - 18.0	W
10-Nov	at Boston College	21-6	W	35.4 - 24.3	W
17-Nov	Wake Forest	38-0	W	44.3 - 17.1	W
24-Nov	at USC	22-13	W	37.3 - 26.0	W
7-Jan	vs. Alabama	14-42	L	42.2 - 32.7	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	25.8	80	12.8	2
Adj. Points Per Game	36.3	12	21.0	13

3. Blast off

That Notre Dame got through September undefeated was a minor miracle. The Irish won three straight games while never scoring more than 20 points; and despite starting Golson, then a redshirt freshman, behind center, they brought in closer Tommy Rees off the bench to save the day, first against Purdue (a Golson fumble set up a tying score for Purdue, but Rees drove the Irish 55 yards for the game-winning field goal), then against Michigan (Rees inherited a 3-0 lead late in the second quarter and engineered a couple of scores). But Kelly stuck with Golson, and over the long haul, that proved to be the right decision.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Notre Dame 29.3, Opponent 19.1 (plus-10.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 8 games): Notre Dame 39.1, Opponent 20.5 (plus-18.6)

Over the first four games, Golson completed 50 of 89 passes (56 percent) for 641 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. But in the week off between Michigan and Miami, things began to click. Against Miami and Stanford, he completed 29 of 46 passes (63 percent) for 327 yards and a score, and after missing the BYU game with a concussion, he would go on to finish the regular season by completing 87 of 147 (59 percent) for 1,167 yards, seven touchdowns, and two picks.

Golson's raw stats (59 percent completion rate, 7.0 yards per attempt) were not incredible to the naked eye, but taking into account how many good defenses he faced -- Alabama ranked first in Def. F/+, Michigan State ranked third, Stanford ranked eighth, Oklahoma ranked 23rd, and Michigan ranked 28th (and he missed out on No. 10 BYU) -- his efficiency numbers were actually quite strong. Notre Dame did rank third in Success Rate+, after all (see below). That Kelly stuck with him after his 3-for-8-with-two-picks performance against Michigan was rather incredible. But it paid off.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	54	9	3	11
RUSHING	38	9	9	11
PASSING	72	5	2	11
Standard Downs		7	8	9
Passing Downs		13	7	21
Redzone		37	28	52

Q1 Rk	5	1st Down Rk	3
Q2 Rk	9	2nd Down Rk	1
Q3 Rk	3	3rd Down Rk	14
Q4 Rk	27

4. A few more big plays wouldn't hurt

In Tyler Eifert, T.J. Jones, Theo Riddick, and Robby Toma, Golson had four rather reliable efficiency guys. Eifert even found some nice gains up the seam from time to time. But if Notre Dame was lacking in one area, it was in the big-play department. The Irish still ranked 11th in PPP+, so clearly this wasn't an extreme weakness, but with Riddick carrying more than the explosive Cierre Wood and DaVaris Daniels missing part of the season with injury, the fast cars in the garage didn't get driven too often.

In 2013, Golson loses his security blanket; Riddick, Eifert, and Toma are all gone. So is Wood, for that matter. But it does appear that explosive players like Daniels and George Atkinson III will get more touches. The question is whether increased explosiveness comes at the cost of decreased efficiency.

George Atkinson III. Matt Cashore, US Presswire.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Everett Golson

6'0, 185

So.

*** (5.7)

187

318

2,405

58.8%

4.5%

7.0

Tommy Rees

6'2, 213

Sr.

*** (5.7)

436

57.6%

1.7%

7.1

Andrew Hendrix

6'2, 226

Jr.

**** (5.8)

71.4%

12.5%

6.8

Malik Zaire

6'0, 196

Fr.

**** (5.9)

5. Removing the training wheels

Golson passed the tests he needed to pass.

Owen Field is one of the loudest venues in the country, and when Oklahoma came back to tie Notre Dame on October 27 and OU's Memorial Stadium hit fifth gear, Golson immediately made a series of big plays, including a bomb to Chris Brown, and won the game for Notre Dame. He helped to avert disaster against Pittsburgh, and in general, he improved decidedly as the season progressed.

He was stocked with reliable, experienced possession guys, and Notre Dame called a lot of runs on passing downs. It behooves you to keep a young quarterback out of must-pass situations as much as possible (especially when you have a great defense), and Notre Dame did that.

But without Eifert and company, without last year's top two running backs, and without a couple of key cogs from a great run-blocking line, there's a chance that Golson has to take on more responsibility to make plays when the Irish fall behind schedule. He might continue to meet the challenges he needs to meet, but he will certainly face a few more as he attempts to avert a sophomore slump of sorts.

More: Bookmark Bill Connelly's team-by-team 2013 preview series

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Theo Riddick	RB				190	917	4.8	3.5	5	+4.0
Cierre Wood	RB				114	742	6.5	6.8	4	+18.5
Everett Golson	QB	6'0, 185	So.	*** (5.7)	79	388	4.9	4.1	6	+1.7
George Atkinson III	RB	6'2, 217	Jr.	**** (5.8)	51	361	7.1	8.5	5	+10.6
Cam McDaniel	RB	5'10, 199	Jr.	*** (5.6)	23	125	5.4	2.7	1	+0.9
Andrew Hendrix	QB	6'2, 226	Jr.	**** (5.8)	7	42	6.0	3.5	0	+0.9
Will Mahone	RB	5'11, 214	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Greg Bryant	RB	5'11, 197	Fr.	***** (6.1)
Tarean Folston	RB	5'10, 195	Fr.	**** (5.9)
William Fuller	WR	6'1, 168	Fr.	**** (5.8)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Tyler Eifert

685

59.5%

8.2

23.1%

59.5%

8.2

115.6

T.J. Jones

5'11, 192

Sr.

**** (5.8)

649

61.0%

7.9

22.5%

69.5%

8.1

109.5

Theo Riddick

370

67.9%

7.0

14.6%

52.8%

6.7

62.4

DaVaris Daniels

6'2, 192

So.

**** (5.8)

490

67.4%

10.7

12.6%

65.2%

10.6

82.7

Robby Toma

252

63.2%

6.6

10.4%

63.2%

6.6

42.5

Troy Niklas

6'7, 259

Jr.

**** (5.8)

45.5%

6.8

3.0%

63.6%

6.9

12.7

Daniel Smith

6'4, 213

Sr.

*** (5.6)

63.6%

4.3

3.0%

18.2%

5.2

7.9

Chris Brown

6'2, 191

So.

*** (5.7)

20.0%

5.6

2.7%

80.0%

4.2

9.4

John Goodman

159

77.8%

17.7

2.5%

44.4%

19.4

26.8

Ben Koyack

6'5, 261

Jr.

**** (5.9)

50.0%

6.5

1.6%

50.0%

5.9

6.6

Cierre Wood

83.3%

4.2

1.6%

83.3%

5.5

4.2

George Atkinson III

6'2, 217

Jr.

**** (5.8)

66.7%

1.3

0.8%

100.0%

0.8

0.7

Cam McDaniel

5'10, 199

Jr.

*** (5.6)

100.0%

20.5

0.5%

100.0%

12.4

6.9

Corey Robinson

6'4, 195

Fr.

**** (5.8)

Mike Heuerman

6'4, 220

Fr.

**** (5.8)

Torii Hunter, Jr.

6'0, 172

Fr.

**** (5.8)

6. Potential vs. production

The Irish have just so damn many blue-chippers at this point. Of the five returning or incoming running backs above, three are former four-star recruits and one is a former five-star. Of the nine returning or incoming receivers and tight ends above, five are former four-star recruits.

The problem is, few have either proven their potential or gotten a chance to do so yet. George Atkinson looked incredible in the open field but got fewer than four carries per game. DaVaris Daniels looked the part of a big-time No. 1 receiver against Purdue, Pitt, and Alabama but disappeared in other games and got hurt late in the year. Blue-chip tight ends Troy Niklas and Ben Koyack combined for 17 targets. And incoming star freshmen like Greg Bryant, Tarean Folston, and Corey Robinson are, indeed, freshmen.

The potential here is ridiculous, but really, only T.J. Jones is a proven commodity at this point. Until you prove your potential, there's a chance you won't.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	118.4	3.19	3.28	43.2%	81.8%	18.2%	121.2	4.6%	4.4%
Rank	7	23	58	22	3	51	43	60	27

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Zack Martin	LT	6'4, 308	Sr.	**** (5.8)	39 career starts
Braxston Cave	C				37 career starts
Chris Watt	LG	6'3, 321	Sr.	**** (6.0)	26 career starts
Mike Golic, Jr.	RG				15 career starts
Christian Lombard	RT	6'5, 322	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13 career starts
Bruce Heggie	RG	6'5, 286	Jr.	** (5.2)
Conor Hanratty	LG	6'5, 309	So.	*** (5.6)
Nick Martin	RT	6'5, 284	So.	*** (5.6)
Ronnie Stanley	LT	6'6, 318	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Steve Elmer	OL	6'6, 305	Fr.	**** (6.0)
John Montelus	OL	6'5, 295	Fr.	**** (6.0)
Hunter Bivin	OL	6'7, 288	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Mike McGlinchey	OL	6'9, 280	Fr.	**** (5.8)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	7	12	22	7
RUSHING	11	17	21	19
PASSING	25	12	28	8
Standard Downs		13	24	8
Passing Downs		17	26	12
Redzone		3	11	1

Q1 Rk	28	1st Down Rk	15
Q2 Rk	12	2nd Down Rk	16
Q3 Rk	27	3rd Down Rk	12
Q4 Rk	4

7. Time for a new identity

I'll say this: I'm not really worried about the loss of Manti Te'o. He was the quarterback of the Notre Dame defense, and while I didn't really think he should have been a Heisman finalist, that Notre Dame was able to build its entire defense around him quite obviously says something. As I wrote many times last year, the Irish were basically able to form an umbrella with their young, ridiculously thin secondary, allow Te'o to patrol the middle of the field, and rely on a four-man pass rush (the absurdly talented line and OLB Prince Shembo) to generate pressure without much risk.

And it worked. Notre Dame didn't have a Top 5 defense in 2012, but it was an excellent one; the Irish were elite in preventing big plays, seemingly always made stops in the red zone, and played a unique version of the bend-don't-break defense with a high level of success.

Te'o and Kapron Lewis-Moore are the only two losses from the front seven, and with depth and star power, the Irish should be able to absorb those departures without a drop-off. But the personality will change without Te'o, and it will be interesting to see how defensive coordinator Bob Diaco re-calibrates. Will he blitz more? Will he utilize a more experienced secondary more aggressively? He hasn't done much of that in South Bend, but he also hasn't ever coached an Irish defense without Te'o yet.

Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix III. Mike Carter, US Presswire.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.6	2.81	3.35	37.9%	48.5%	19.0%	133.5	5.0%	9.4%
Rank	45	44	75	52	2	69	19	49	19

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Stephon Tuitt

6'6, 322

Jr.

***** (6.1)

35.5

5.4%

Louis Nix III

6'3, 347

Jr.

**** (5.9)

35.0

5.3%

7.5

Kapron Lewis-Moore

28.5

4.3%

8.5

Sheldon Day

6'2, 286

So.

**** (5.8)

18.0

2.7%

3.5

Tony Springman

6'6, 284

So.

*** (5.7)

7.5

1.1%

Kona Schwenke

6'4, 297

Sr.

*** (5.7)

3.0

0.5%

0.5

Jarron Jones

6'5, 295

RSFr.

**** (5.8)

Isaac Rochell

6'5, 260

Fr.

**** (5.9)

Eddie Vanderdoes

6'3, 310

Fr.

***** (6.1)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Manti Te'o	ILB				13	84.0	12.8%	5.5	1.5	7	4	0	2
Dan Fox	ILB	6'3, 242	Sr.	**** (5.8)	13	46.5	7.1%	2	1	0	2	0	0
Prince Shembo	OLB	6'2, 258	Sr.	**** (5.8)	13	36.5	5.6%	10.5	7.5	0	1	0	1
Carlo Calabrese	ILB	6'1, 244	Sr.	*** (5.7)	12	34.0	5.2%	3	0	0	0	1	0
Danny Spond	OLB	6'2, 248	Sr.	**** (5.8)	11	28.0	4.3%	1	0	1	3	0	0
Ishaq Williams	OLB	6'5, 261	Jr.	***** (6.1)	13	16.5	2.5%	3.5	0	0	1	1	0
Jarrett Grace	ILB	6'3, 248	So.	*** (5.7)	13	9.5	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ben Councell	OLB	6'4, 248	So.	**** (5.8)	13	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kendall Moore	ILB	6'1, 244	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Romeo Okwara	OLB	6'4, 258	So.	*** (5.7)	13	5.5	0.8%	1.5	0	0	0	1	0
Joe Schmidt	ILB	6'0, 226	Jr.	NR	10	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Rabasa	OLB	6'3, 243	So.	*** (5.7)	2	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jaylon Smith	LB	6'3, 212	Fr.	***** (6.1)
Doug Randolph	LB	6'3, 237	Fr.	**** (5.9)

8. Goodness, gracious

Notre Dame's front seven this year: 4 former 5-star recruits, 10 former 4-star recruits. Lordy. Thin at DB, but … lordy.
— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) May 15, 2013

And by "thin at DB," I mean only one former 5-star and three 4-stars. Poor guys.
— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) May 15, 2013

Te'o may have been the rock, but man oh man, does this unit have talent. And unlike the skill positions on offense, the front seven has guys who have already proven, or begun to prove, that their recruiting rankings were spot-on. There is nothing I enjoy more on defense than big, athletic linemen with big guts and straight-line speed. There was an abundance of them in 2012 -- Ziggy Ansah at BYU, Sheldon Richardson at Missouri, Sharrif Floyd at Florida -- but two of the most enjoyable will once again be lining up on the Notre Dame line: Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix III. Nix, nearly 350 pounds, is both quick and a really fun quote (#MeatChicken); Tuitt, meanwhile, does things like this...

...at 322 pounds.

And now a pair of five-star freshmen (tackle Eddie Vanderdoes, linebacker Jaylon Smith), among other blue-chippers, join the rotation. The depth up wasn't spectacular in 2012 -- only about four linemen actually played; but a) that probably isn't a problem anymore, and b) the depth at linebacker was, and remains fantastic.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zeke Motta	S				13	58.0	8.8%	2	0	0	3	0	1
Bennett Jackson	CB	6'0, 183	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13	55.0	8.4%	1.5	0	4	4	0	1
KeiVarae Russell	CB	5'11, 190	So.	**** (5.8)	13	47.5	7.2%	2	0.5	2	2	0	0
Matthias Farley	S	5'11, 204	So.	*** (5.5)	13	36.0	5.5%	2	0	1	0	0	0
Elijah Shumate	S	6'0, 213	So.	**** (5.8)	13	8.0	1.2%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Dan McCarthy	S				13	6.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Nicky Baratti	S	6'1, 201	So.	*** (5.7)	13	6.5	1.0%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Jamoris Slaughter	S				3	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Chris Salvi	S				13	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Conor Cavalaris	S	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	11	3.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jalen Brown	CB	6'1, 207	So.	*** (5.5)	7	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Max Redfield	DB	6'2, 195	Fr.	***** (6.1)
Cole Luke	DB	6'0, 165	Fr.	**** (5.9)

9. Wanted: Corner depth

The play of Te'o and the front seven was good enough to distract from the fact that the secondary, while certainly decent, was paper thin. The safety ranks took a hit when Jamoris Slaughter tore his Achilles in the third game of the year; then-freshman Matthias Farley was thrust into the limelight. Meanwhile, there were almost no corners deemed trustworthy. Bennett Jackson and then-freshman KeiVarae Russell played nearly every down, with converted receivers Josh Atkinson and Cam McDaniel forced to fill in at times.

The top four defensive backs made a total of 196.5 tackles and 5.5 tackles for loss and defensed 13 passes. All other defensive backs combined for 37.0 tackles, none for loss, and defensed six passes.

Elijah Shumate showed some promise -- anytime you have almost half as many passes defensed (three) as tackles (8.0), it's a pretty good sign that you're making plays on the ball instead of on the player who has already caught the ball (of course, there's also a chance that you're just missing tackles altogether) -- but there is almost no proven depth here. There could be ample playing time waiting for blue-chip freshmen Max Redfield and Cole Luke if they're ready to claim some.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Ben Turk			53	40.8	2	23	14	69.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Kyle Brindza	6'1, 236	Jr.	71	62.6	26	36.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Kyle Brindza	6'1, 236	Jr.	28-29	19-23	82.6%	4-8	50.0%
Nick Tausch	6'0, 195	Sr.	5-6	1-1	100.0%	0-0	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
George Atkinson III	KR	6'1, 217	Jr.	22	20.0	0
Cam McDaniel	KR	5'10, 199	Jr.	7	19.3	0
Davonte' Neal	PR			21	2.2	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	90
Net Punting	31
Net Kickoffs	55
Touchback Pct	58
Field Goal Pct	45
Kick Returns Avg	95
Punt Returns Avg	120

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Temple	66
7-Sep	at Michigan	22
14-Sep	at Purdue	69
21-Sep	Michigan State	18
28-Sep	Oklahoma	7
5-Oct	vs. Arizona State	34
19-Oct	USC	17
26-Oct	at Air Force	91
2-Nov	Navy	95
9-Nov	at Pittsburgh	31
23-Nov	BYU	27
30-Nov	at Stanford	5

Five-Year F/+ Rk	18
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	11
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+8 / +5.5
TO Luck/Game	+1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (6, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-7.9

10. Great team, meet great schedule

One fun way to figure out where a team stands is to play the "How many ifs?" game. How many "Ifs" does it take to put a team at a certain level?

Top 15: If Golson avoids a serious slump, and if a young running back can provide some level of reliability, this should be a Top 15 team based solely on defensive potential and some decent big-play ability on offense.

Top 10: If Golson avoids a serious slump, if a young running back can provide some level of reliability, and if one of the freshman or sophomore DBs breaks through, this is likely a Top 10 team.

Top 5: If Golson avoids a serious slump, if a young running back can provide some level of reliability, if one of the freshman or sophomore DBs breaks through, and if one more receiver breaks through alongside Jones and Daniels, this is likely a Top 5 team.

This isn't an overt number of "ifs." Notre Dame broke into the Top 15 in 2011, then played like it in 2012. I think slight improvement is likely again, though another undefeated record in close games probably isn't. Against a slate the features seven teams projected in the Top 31 (four at home), the Irish will need a couple more breaks to again make the title game, but at this point one cannot question the program's trajectory: It's strong.

Really strong. Whether people saw it 12 months ago doesn't really matter; they see it now.

More from SB Nation:

• SB Nation interviews Mike the Tiger’s handler

• Penn State players support trainer after SI story

• TCU loses best defender for LSU game

• Ohio State’s schedule as short stories

MUtigers.com: Tigers Host Kentucky in Regular Season Finale
SimmonsField.com: MIZZOU MATCHUP: Kentucky Wildcats

Mizzou Links, 5-16-13

Bill C. — Thu, 16 May 2013 09:39:56 -0000

Apologies for the slowness of late ... the SBN servers have been fending off a pretty serious attack for about a day and a half now. Knock on wood, but it seems better this morning so far...

1. Will Mizzou play well enough against Kentucky to make the SEC Baseball Tournament?

Do not be fooled by their SEC record, this Wildcat team has the capability to go deep in the conference tournament when they put it all together. On the flip side, Missouri has the opportunity to capitalize off Kentucky struggles of late and finish the season on a high note. If they play well, we could see the Tigers as a low seed in the tournament; but if they proverbially poop the bed, it could mean watching from home. Kentucky defense can be suspect at times, while 58 errors may not seem like too many over 51 games, but those have resulted in 51 unearned runs. Their errors have come back to hurt them many times.

MUtigers.com: Mizzou Fan Primer - vs. Kentucky
SimmonsField.com: SEC WEEKEND: Kentucky Wildcats @ Mizzou

NOTE: This final SEC Weekend is a Thursday-Friday-Saturday series rather than the usual Friday to Sunday schedule. Unless, as the weatherman, predicts, it rains, in which case who knows when these games will happen? Given the way this whole season has gone, why would we not get games rescheduled because of weather on the final weekend?

SimmonsField.com: HI NOTES: UK Is Not KU; Baseball in Colorado

Again, here are the standings heading into the (early) weekend:

1. Vanderbilt (24-2, 46-6)
2. LSU (21-6, 46-7)
3. Arkansas (17-9, 34-17)
4. South Carolina (16-10, 38-14)
5. Ole Miss (14-13, 35-18)
6. Mississippi State (14-13, 38-15)
7. Alabama (13-13, 31-22)
8. Florida (13-14, 28-25)
9. Texas A&M (11-15, 28-24)
10. Auburn (11-16, 31-21)
11. Kentucky (10-17, 29-22)
12. Missouri (8-19, 16-30)

---

13. Tennessee (7-18, 21-28)
14. Georgia (5-19, 19-31)

As trripleplay pointed out, win percentage is what matters here, so as long as Mizzou beats Kentucky the same number of times that Tennessee beats Texas A&M (or more, obviously), Mizzou claims the 12-seed. A trip to the SEC Tournament probably wouldn't last very long, but it would at least be a trip to the SEC Tournament.

2. Josh Henson wins over the Kansas City crowd

PowerMizzou: Henson takes the stage

Another big note: Henson said that Henry Josey is the current starter at running back, followed by Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy. Josey is healthy after a severe knee injury that occurred toward the end of the 2011 season.

Henson said, by his own estimation, that Josey is "90-percent of what he was."

"But that's still pretty stinking good," Henson said.

Josey's return and sustained healthy could be a huge factor in determining Missouri's success this year, and not just from a production standpoint. Henson said Josey's return adds a big "emotional" and "morale" boost to his teammates.

It still seems that even if Josey keeps the starting job, Missouri will rotate in the other running backs frequently. Henson specifically talked about Hansbrough, and some of the runs he made this spring. Henson would ask Hansbrough how he saw the smallest of gaps to gain yardage, and Hansbrough would respond, "I don't know, coach. I just did."

Henson also said that Hansbrough is a physical blocker that could play a large role in pass protection.

3. What's Chelsea got in the tank?

The Trib: Going back to back - can Chelsea Thomas do it?

There's no denying that Missouri getting a national No. 6 seed has helped the Tigers. They get Stony Brook (RPI 123) in the opener Friday. It's a game in which Earleywine can completely or partially rest Thomas.

"There might be some blessings rained down from above with the Stony Brook thing," he said.

But the question still begs: Can Thomas throw back-to-back days? She'll have to do it Saturday and Sunday, likely against Hofstra (RPI 20). If MU was to advance to the WCWS, she'd have to pitch back to back days a minimum of twice in six days there.

She's done that successfully — pitch complete games in back to back days — plenty of times. Just not, really, this season.

Earleywine, Stannard and Thomas say she can do it.

"I don't think back to back is the problem," Stannard said. "I think it's back to back to back."

Just three times this season Thomas has pitched complete games on consecutive days.

4. Jace Long is a hell of a golfer

The Missourian: Missouri senior golfer Jace Long embraces the moment

5. Congrats, graduates (Mizzou athletes and Rock M'ers alike)!

MUtigers.com: Graduation Weekend At Mizzou

2013 BYU football's 10 things to know: Identity, an ambitious schedule, and KVN4Heisman

Bill C. — Wed, 15 May 2013 11:13:27 -0000

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Progressing toward the mean

On Tuesday, we talked about a Navy team that benefited severely from close-game bounces; the Midshipmen went 4-0 in one-possession games to finish 8-5 despite looking pretty awful on paper.

Today, we talk about the opposite effect. On paper, BYU was a Top 25 team. The Cougars had one of the best defenses in the country, replete with an absolutely terrifying front seven, and thrived despite a directionless offense. But they lost nearly three points per game to turnovers luck, lost three games by three or fewer points, and went 1-4 overall in one-possession games. With Navy's luck, BYU might have gone 11-2 or 12-1 in 2012. Instead, the Cougars finished with Navy's record (8-5) despite finishing 74 spots higher in the F/+ rankings.

Of course, it's only fair, I guess. In 2011, BYU went 4-1 in one-possession games and finished 10-3 despite a No. 40 F/+ ranking. Like Navy, the Cougars simply got their records reversed. Whereas 2012 should have been seen as the culmination of a three-year rebuilding process for head coach Bronco Mendenhall, it was instead seen as one big pile of frustration. With a defense that allowed its fewest points in 33 years, BYU was great at staying close and terrible at closing the deal, losing by three points at rival Utah, by one point at Boise State, by three points at Notre Dame, and by six points at San Jose State. So close.

In 2013, we'll see if the luck stabilizes a bit. We'll also see if BYU can figure out what the hell it wants to be on offense, and if a couple of stud sophomores are ready to have their names on the marquee.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 \| Adj. Record: 11-2 \| Final F/+ Rk: 23
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
30-Aug	Washington State	30-6	W	29.9 - 12.5	W
8-Sep	Weber State	45-13	W	33.0 - 18.3	W
15-Sep	at Utah	21-24	L	20.1 - 16.6	W
20-Sep	at Boise State	6-7	L	18.4 - 9.5	W
28-Sep	Hawaii	47-0	W	43.8 - 12.9	W
5-Oct	Utah State	6-3	W	29.8 - 10.4	W
13-Oct	Oregon State	24-42	L	26.9 - 35.1	L
20-Oct	at Notre Dame	14-17	L	23.6 - 29.1	L
27-Oct	at Georgia Tech	41-17	W	29.2 - 8.1	W
10-Nov	Idaho	52-13	W	29.8 - 23.4	W
17-Nov	at San Jose State	14-20	L	29.7 - 22.7	W
24-Nov	at New Mexico State	50-14	W	28.8 - 18.1	W
20-Dec	San Diego State	23-6	W	17.6 - 10.9	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	28.7	65	14.0	3
Adj. Points Per Game	27.7	70	17.5	5

2. Rallying behind Taysom Hill

BYU cycled through the quarterbacks in 2012. Riley Nelson, finally getting a chance to prove himself as a starter for an entire season, instead struggled with injuries. Taysom Hill, Nelson's anointed successor, directed BYU's best performance of the season (against Hawaii), then bowed out with a knee injury on a play that was supposed to be in victory formation. Nelson returned despite a back injury, then got knocked out with rib issues. James Lark finished the season.

Adj. Points Per Game with Riley Nelson at quarterback (9 games): BYU 26.7, Opponent 19.5 (plus-7.2)
Adj. Points Per Game with Taysom Hill at quarterback (2 games): BYU 36.8, Opponent 11.7 (plus-25.1)
Adj. Points Per Game with James Lark at quarterback (2 games): BYU 23.2, Opponent 14.5 (plus-8.7)

The injuries left BYU headless for a good portion of the year. The Cougars were far from bad on offense, but they were directionless and, at best, mediocre to decent. And it probably goes without saying that you are more likely to lose close games if you have no idea what to expect from the quarterback position.

We do, however, know that BYU's best game of the season came with Hill at quarterback. We also know that Hill is both healthy and the only one left from last year's QB battle. The backup is an untested walk-on, and former blue-chipper Tanner Mangum is going on a two-year mission. Hill is the man in Provo. Now he just needs to remain upright.

Taysom Hill. Russ Isabella-US PRESSWIRE.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	60	53	43	55
RUSHING	65	59	70	52
PASSING	50	49	32	62
Standard Downs		54	50	61
Passing Downs		44	32	52
Redzone		71	60	82

Q1 Rk	49	1st Down Rk	47
Q2 Rk	43	2nd Down Rk	101
Q3 Rk	106	3rd Down Rk	48
Q4 Rk	30

3. Wanted: an identity

BYU's offense was decent at most things and good at almost nothing in 2012. The Cougars were well above average in terms of converting passing downs (usually by way of an eight-yard gain on third-and-8), but they fell into too many passing downs to be consistently solid. Their running game was relatively explosive but prone to losses. Their passing game was perfectly efficient but less than explosive. And their identity changed based on who was behind center. With Taysom Hill, BYU averaged 50 rushes and 30 passes per game. With Lark, it was 33 rushes and 47 passes (despite holding a lead through most of each game). And with Nelson, it was 38 rushes and 42 passes.

Naturally, these changes happened because of the skill sets of the QBs at hand. But you get whiplash looking at the twists and turns in BYU's 2012 identity.

There is hope in this regard, however, and part of this hope comes in a complete lack of options. Hill is the guy, and his ability to run (and his inability to, as of yet, pass consistently or avoid sacks) pretty much ends the search for an identity. With Hill as signal caller, expect a run-heavy attack, which suits the personnel well. Hill was explosive, and Jamaal Williams, a freshman thrust into action with the transfer of Josh Quezada, at the very least held his own. With a limited passing game, BYU has no choice but to lean on its backfield. And it might pay off.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Riley Nelson				181	308	2,011	58.8%	13	13	21	6.4%	5.7
James Lark				73	116	778	62.9%	8	2	3	2.5%	6.3
Taysom Hill	6'2, 218	So.	*** (5.6)	42	71	425	59.2%	4	2	6	7.8%	5.0
Ammon Olsen	6'3, 209	So.	NR

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Jamaal Williams	RB	6'0, 190	So.	*** (5.5)	166	775	4.7	4.4	12	+0.4
Riley Nelson	QB				65	341	5.2	3.0	1	+2.9
Michael Alisa	RB	6'1, 220	Sr.	** (5.4)	58	222	3.8	2.8	1	-3.9
Taysom Hill	QB	6'2, 218	So.	*** (5.6)	49	373	7.6	6.4	4	+13.3
David Foote	RB				42	198	4.7	3.6	0	-1.0
Paul Lasike	RB	6'0, 227	Jr.	NR	33	129	3.9	1.5	2	-2.8
JD Falslev	SLOT	5'8, 184	Sr.	NR	18	109	6.1	11.5	0	+2.3
James Lark	QB				14	44	3.1	1.8	1	-2.4
Iona Pritchard	RB	6'0, 244	Jr.	** (5.1)	13	39	3.0	1.9	0	-2.1
Adam Hine	RB	6'1, 202	So.	*** (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Cody Hoffman

6'4, 215

Sr.

** (5.0)

145

100

1248

69.0%

8.6

31.7%

60.0%

8.6

160.8

JD Falslev

SLOT

5'8, 184

Sr.

274

60.7%

4.5

13.3%

52.5%

4.6

35.3

Ross Apo

6'3, 207

Jr.

**** (5.9)

311

56.4%

5.7

12.0%

65.5%

5.4

40.1

Kaneakua Friel

6'5, 250

Sr.

** (5.4)

308

58.8%

6.0

11.2%

76.5%

5.7

39.7

Jamaal Williams

6'0, 190

So.

*** (5.5)

315

75.0%

8.8

7.9%

52.8%

8.9

40.6

Skyler Ridley

6'0, 182

Sr.

206

69.0%

7.1

6.3%

48.3%

7.0

26.5

David Foote

122

63.2%

6.4

4.2%

63.2%

6.5

15.7

Devin Mahina

6'6, 247

Jr.

**** (5.8)

128

66.7%

10.7

2.6%

50.0%

9.6

16.5

Richard Wilson

6'3, 240

Sr.

*** (5.7)

102

58.3%

8.5

2.6%

83.3%

10.6

13.1

Michael Alisa

6'1, 220

Sr.

** (5.4)

66.7%

2.6

2.0%

77.8%

1.8

3.0

Austin Holt

6'5, 250

Jr.

*** (5.7)

50.0%

5.5

0.9%

25.0%

9.0

2.8

Mitch Mathews

6'6, 213

So.

*** (5.5)

66.7%

9.0

0.7%

100.0%

5.4

3.5

Brett Thompson

6'3, 220

Jr.

*** (5.6)

Eric Thornton

SLOT

5'9, 170

So.

Talon Shumway

6'3, 190

Fr.

*** (5.5)

4. Grading Cody Hoffman on a curve

Because Hill only really played about 2.5 games (he was used quite a bit against Boise State), BYU's full-season stats skewed toward the pass. That was a problem, as really only Cody Hoffman provided any value in the passing game.

The slot receiver averaged 7.4 yards per catch, which is fine as long as you've got about an 80 percent catch rate; Falslev's was only 60 percent. Former blue-chipper Ross Apo contributed very little. The tight ends were decent but didn't stand out. Williams and Skyler Ridley at least contributed decent catch rates, but it is a bit of a miracle that Hoffman was even able to average 8.6 yards per target considering the attention defenses were able to give to him.

The receiving corps has plenty of former three- and four-star recruits in it, and if players like Apo or tight end Devin Mahina (who did pretty well with his one target per game) were to suddenly play like they were supposed to coming out of high school, then Hill might begin to get the help he needs. But that's a pretty big if.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.1	2.85	3.26	40.8%	72.5%	19.4%	106.9	5.7%	6.0%
Rank	52	82	59	43	36	72	58	81	50

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Braden Hansen	C				49 career starts
Braden Brown	RT				41 career starts
Ryker Mathews	LT	6'6, 292	So.	**** (5.8)	13 career starts
Houston Reynolds	C	6'2, 305	Sr.	** (5.4)	11 career starts
Manaaki Vaitai	C	6'3, 317	Sr.	*** (5.6)	9 career starts
Solomone Kafu	LG	6'2, 305	Jr.	** (4.9)	8 career starts
Blair Tushaus	C				7 career starts
Brock Stringham	RG	6'6, 290	Jr.	*** (5.5)	3 career starts
Famika Anae	LG				1 career start
Michael Yeck	RT	6'8, 288	Jr.	** (5.4)
Tui Crichton	LG	6'3, 343	So.	*** (5.6)
Terrance Alletto	C	6'3, 285	So.	*** (5.7)
De'Ondre Wesley	OL	6'6, 310	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Edward Fusi	OL	6'1, 285	Jr.	** (5.2)
Josh Carter	OL	6'5, 290	Jr.	** (5.2)
Brayden Kearsley	OL	6'5, 295	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Brad Wilcox	LT	6'7, 285	Fr.	** (5.3)

5. The line needed help

The BYU offensive line certainly wasn't bad in 2012 ... but it wasn't very good, either. The Cougars were right at about the middle of FBS in terms of run blocking and pass protection, converting pretty well on short-yardage situations but struggling with breakdowns, especially on standard downs. Opponents were able to make a lot of stops in the backfield against both the run and pass (particularly when Hill was at QB).

And Bronco Mendenhall clearly thought of the line as an issue, bringing in three junior college transfers, plus a four-star freshman in Brayden Kearsley, to plump up the depth chart. The reinforcements better be ready, because BYU now faces replacing a three-year starting tackle (Braden Brown) and a four-year starting center (Braden Hansen). BYU is bereft of experienced Bradens in 2013; perhaps a young Brayden, and maybe a De'Ondre, an Edward, a Tui, or a Terrance can keep BYU's line afloat.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	3	7	5	10
RUSHING	2	4	3	6
PASSING	10	14	12	16
Standard Downs		5	3	14
Passing Downs		13	20	10
Redzone		12	5	27

Q1 Rk	62	1st Down Rk	9
Q2 Rk	2	2nd Down Rk	19
Q3 Rk	9	3rd Down Rk	1
Q4 Rk	2

6. Damn, was this a good defense last year

I in no way grew up a BYU fan, but it was really, really frustrating watching BYU's offense falter in 2012 and waste some of the opportunities presented to it by a defense that was aggressive, fun, and remarkable. The talent in the front seven was unmatched by just about any school in the country not named Alabama, and while it took a little bit to find its rhythm (BYU saw some slow starts at times) and the passing downs defense could be a little bit leaky at times, if you enjoy attacking defenses, BYU's was for you.

The unit's depth has taken a hit heading into 2013, but the star power is still certainly there in the form of linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Spencer Hadley, corner Jordan Johnson, and perhaps a sophomore or two up front. I cannot guarantee the unit will be quite as effective this fall, but it should be just as aggressive and fun to watch.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	116.5	2.30	2.64	28.8%	59.3%	25.9%	132.1	6.9%	8.9%
Rank	12	2	18	2	16	5	21	13	25

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ezekiel Ansah	DE				13	48.5	7.7%	13	4.5	1	9	1	0
Romney Fuga	NT				13	29.0	4.6%	2.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Bronson Kaufusi	DE	6'7, 270	So.	**** (5.9)	13	17.0	2.7%	5.5	4.5	0	1	0	1
Russell Tialavea	DE				13	14.5	2.3%	2	1	0	2	0	2
Eathyn Manumaleuna	NT	6'2, 288	Sr.	** (5.3)	4	8.0	1.3%	4	2	0	1	1	0
Remington Peck	DE	6'4, 250	So.	*** (5.5)	9	6.0	1.0%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Simote Vea	NT				9	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Mike Muehlmann	DE				2	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Austin Holt	DE	6'5, 250	Jr.	*** (5.7)
Marques Johnson	NT	6'2, 321	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Logan Taele	DE	6'2, 240	So.	NR
Michael Doman	DE	6'4, 240	So.	NR
Tuni Kanuch	NT	6'1, 285	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
JonRyheem Peoples	NT	6'6, 298	Fr.	*** (5.6)

7. Reloading up front

First, let's say this: there is hope. In losing Top 5 draft pick Ziggy Ansah, tackle Romney Fuga, and backup end Russell Tialavea, BYU finds itself in need of replacing three of the four primary members of last year's stellar line. Ansah made Kyle Van Noy's job pretty easy at times and occupied blockers like the perfect 3-4 end, while Fuga was a lovely space-eater.

But there is a load of potential in players like end Bronson Kaufusi, who could be ready for a major star turn, 2011 starter Eathyn Manumaleuna, who missed nine of 13 games last year (and put up similar numbers in 2011 to what Fuga posted last year), and newcomers to the rotation like end Austin Holt and redshirt freshman Tuni Kanuch. This unit is not very proven at this point, but the ceiling is high. And if it can simply remain competent, the linebackers could do the rest.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brandon Ogletree	BLB				13	76.0	12.1%	13.5	0	0	4	0	0
Kyle Van Noy	WLB	6'3, 235	Sr.	**** (5.8)	13	45.0	7.2%	22	13	2	5	6	1
Spencer Hadley	SLB	6'1, 227	Sr.	** (5.2)	13	42.5	6.8%	9	3.5	0	1	1	2
Uona Kaveinga	MLB				13	36.5	5.8%	4.5	0.5	1	2	0	1
Uani' Unga	MLB	6'1, 233	Sr.	NR	13	22.0	3.5%	3	1	1	1	1	0
Alani Fua	SLB	6'5, 215	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13	10.5	1.7%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Manoa Pikula	BLB	6'1, 235	So.	*** (5.6)	12	7.5	1.2%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Austen Jorgensen	MLB	6'2, 239	Sr.	** (5.4)	4	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Beck	BLB	6'1, 220	Sr.	** (5.3)	4	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jherremya Leuta-Douyere	WLB	6'0, 236	So.	** (5.3)	10	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Toloa'i Ho Ching	MLB	6'0, 225	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Kalolo Manumaleuna Utu	LB	6'2, 250	Jr.	** (5.4)

8. KVN4Heisman

His supporting cast will change, and that is a little bit scary, but Kyle Van Noy was either the best or second-best playmaking linebacker in the country. Only Georgia's Jarvis Jones could challenge him for that title. In Ansah, he had a fantastic setup man up front; and in Brandon Ogletree, he had the perfect tackling machine next to him at inside linebacker. Van Noy was free to take chances because these two guys could help to cover for him. Without them, his production could slip unless players like Kaufusi and new BLB Manoa Pikula step up. But he set the bar so high in 2012 that 18 tackles for loss, five passes defensed, and five forced fumbles would represent slippage.

Van Noy was just so fun to watch in 2012. He logged 4.5 tackles for loss against Utah alone, then threw in two sacks for a loss of 24 yards against Hawaii. After a relatively quiet October, he erupted late: three solo tackles for loss against San Jose State, three more against New Mexico State (all sacks), and 3.5 TFLs, a pick-six, and a blocked punt touchdown against San Diego State in one of the most dominant bowl performances you'll ever see.

BYU's success will depend as much on its offense and its defensive newcomers as it will on Van Noy. But in KVN, BYU has a player for which opponents absolutely must gameplan against and account for on every single play. That is an extreme luxury.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Daniel Sorensen	KAT	6'2, 215	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	54.5	8.7%	2	0	3	5	2	1
Preston Hadley	CB				13	49.5	7.9%	3.5	1.5	1	7	1	0
Jordan Johnson	CB	5'10, 185	Jr.	** (5.3)	12	41.5	6.6%	1.5	0	1	15	0	1
Craig Bills	FS	6'2, 209	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13	39.0	6.2%	0	0	0	5	1	0
Joe Sampson	FS				9	27.0	4.3%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Matt Hadley	S				7	6.0	1.0%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Hague	CB	5'10, 190	Sr.	** (5.4)	4	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Skye PoVey	DB	5'11, 200	Sr.	NR	3	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Micah Hannemann	DB				8	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Adam Hogan	CB	5'11, 180	Sr.	NR
Blake Morgan	FS	5'11, 184	Sr.	NR
Michael Wadsworth	KAT	6'1, 182	So.	NR
Trent Trammell	DB	5'11, 180	Jr.	** (5.4)
Samuel Lee	DB	6'0, 180	Jr.	** (5.4)
Jacob Hannemann	CB	6'1, 190	Fr.	** (5.2)
Dallin Leavitt	DB	5'11, 202	Fr.	*** (5.5)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Riley Stephenson			59	45.4	5	10	30	67.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Justin Sorensen	6'1, 232	Sr.	63	62.4	26	41.3%
Riley Stephenson			8	60.0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Justin Sorensen	6'1, 232	Sr.	27-30	6-10	60.0%	0-2	0.0%
Riley Stephenson			16-19	4-6	66.7%	0-0	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
JD Falslev	KR	5'8, 184	Sr.	11	26.0	0
Joe Sampson	KR			8	21.0	0
Cody Hoffman	KR	6'4, 215	Sr.	3	24.0	0
JD Falslev	PR	5'8, 184	Sr.	26	9.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	71
Net Punting	2
Net Kickoffs	59
Touchback Pct	56
Field Goal Pct	113
Kick Returns Avg	19
Punt Returns Avg	65

9. Riley Stephenson was a weapon

As good as the BYU defense was, it was done some serious favors in the field position battle. Punter Riley Stephenson was just about as good as it gets, averaging over 45 yards per kick and rarely allowing for a good return opportunity. His isn't the biggest departure BYU must account for in 2013, but he's an important one, especially considering how iffy BYU's special teams play was outside of the punting game (and kick returns).

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	at Virginia	65
7-Sep	Texas	11
21-Sep	Utah	52
27-Sep	Middle Tennessee	98
4-Oct	at Utah State	46
12-Oct	Georgia Tech	38
19-Oct	at Houston	57
25-Oct	Boise State	12
9-Nov	at Wisconsin	14
16-Nov	Idaho State	NR
23-Nov	at Notre Dame	8
30-Nov	at Nevada	74

Five-Year F/+ Rk	30
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	70
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / +4.0
TO Luck/Game	-2.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (8, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-5.1

10. Hello, spotlight

Since BYU's move out of the Mountain West and into independence, I've considered it an honorary BCS-level squad, right alongside Notre Dame. The Cougars have never had any major-conference affiliation, but they have a national title and a Heisman in the trophy case, and they have played at a reliably major level through most of the last four decades.

And with 2013's schedule, they are certainly acting like a major program. Holy moly. In a month's span late in the season, BYU visits both Wisconsin and Notre Dame and welcomes Boise State to town. They host Texas and Utah in September, make an early trip to Virginia, and, in all, play seven BCS conference teams, plus Utah State and Boise State, 2012's two best mid-majors. In all, only two opponents are projected worse than 75th, and seven are projected 52nd or better. That is a very impressive slate, better than that of a lot of BCS teams.

BYU could be ready for it, too. It's difficult to make an outright guarantee of that with an all-sophomore offensive backfield, new faces on the offensive line, and new players complementing Van Noy. But the Cougars still have Van Noy, Cody Hoffman, an active secondary, and a world of potential on the defensive line. And they might have an offensive identity to boot.

All bets are off if Taysom Hill gets hurt, but I see BYU as a legitimate Top 20-25 team heading into 2013. And if the Cougars are ready to actually close games this time around, they could escape from a tough schedule with a lot of tough wins. I like this team a lot.

More from SB Nation:

• Ohio State’s schedule as short stories

• RAINBOW WARRIORS BACK?

• LSU likely to sign No.1 class?

• When the SEC’s seven-year streak could’ve ended

The Trib: Thomas discusses loss of firepower

A more mature DGB is ready for the SEC

Bill C. — Wed, 15 May 2013 12:03:38 -0000

A more mature DGB is ready for the SEC

Here's to hoping.

Mizzou Links, 5-15-13

Bill C. — Wed, 15 May 2013 09:48:16 -0000

1. This Year Sucks™: Chelsea Thomas Edition

What Thomas is suffering from, no one exactly knows.

The best estimation is exertional compartment syndrome, said Dr. James Stannard, chairman of orthopedic surgery at Missouri. An official diagnosis has not been made, he said.

After several innings of pitching, Thomas' hand swells, her forearm muscles tighten and her arm can become completely immobile. She loses feeling in her throwing hand and fingers, and a tingly numbness runs through her arm.

Thomas has trouble feeling and gripping the ball. It happened Saturday night in a Southeastern Conference Tournament championship loss to Florida. Thomas had thrown 100 pitches in a win over Tennessee earlier in the day. In the second inning against Florida, she threw two wild pitches and allowed a home run. Earleywine pulled her.

"You know how when you do a bunch of forearm curls, and you do so much where your arm feels really tight and you don't feel like you can close your hand?" Earleywine said. "That's where she was." […]

Stannard said she's been "improving" and "taking a slight turn for the better." He attributes that to recent heating and cooling treatments, massage therapy and Earleywine's decision over the last month to avoid pitching her back-to-back days.

Rich Thomas said his daughter's "been feeling a lot better."

"Some people say she's at 70 percent, but she's beating LSU and those people at 70 percent," he said. "She's battling, winning for her team."

MUtigers.com: Regional Games Set for KTGR Radio and Mizzou Network
MUtigers.com: Mizzou in Top 10 of Final Regular Season Polls

Chelsea Thomas enters the final postseason of her career at 70 percent, and her backup quit the team. This year sucks.

Win the whole damn thing anyway, Team #Stubble.

2. The Stubble Bubble is still in process

KC Star (AP): Mizzou to build new softball stadium

The Columbia Daily Tribune reports that Missouri wants to replace 31-year-old University Field, the Southeastern Conference’s oldest and smallest venue.

Associate athletic director Tim Hickman says the school had previously planned a $4.5 million renovation but now envisions a new ballpark costing between $12 million and $15 million.

The only thing that could add $7.5 to 10.5 million to the total? A dome. THIS IS HAPPENING.

Okay, it's not happening. Hell, they probably need that much money just to somehow craft a patch of land that currently doesn't exist.

3. The Big 12/SEC Challenge is kind of dumb

The Dagger: Format of new Big 12-SEC Challenge will have to change for it to succeed

Much like the games in the Big 12/Pac-10 series were annually spread over the course of a month, next season's Big 12-SEC challenge games span a six-week window from Nov. 14 to Dec. 21. Spacing the games so far apart hampers the event's chances of creating early-season buzz because only the most hardcore fans will even realize all 10 of the games are part of a challenge between the two leagues.

The only way a series between two leagues can truly capture the attention of fans is if the format is similar to the highly successful ACC-Big Ten Challenge, a battle for bragging rights that spans only two days. The Big 12's release announcing the event mentions that scheduling conflicts were the reason the event is so spread out next season and pledges to work with ESPN to schedule the games across consecutive days in the future.

Hopefully schools in both leagues commit to juggling their future schedules and making this event a two-day blockbuster because it does have potential if it's organized properly. The other problem with the inaugural version, however, is the matchups don't seem to have been chosen with much imagination.

The Trib (Steve Walentik): Missouri to play West Virginia in new Big 12/SEC Challenge
Post-Dispatch: Mizzou to play West Virginia in SEC/Big 12 Challenge

Yeah, Oklahoma State-South Carolina, played nearly a month after Texas Tech-Alabama ... that's really going to drum up interest. That, and ... of course...

But seriously, A&M gets OU, and we get a B12 team with which we weren't actually B12 rivals? Really?
— Rock M Nation (@rockmnation) May 14, 2013

These two conferences have very little basketball history together. Not pitting Mizzou against a former rival was just a silly waste of an opportunity to drum up at least a little bit of interest for this pretty worthless series of games.

4. Finis Stribling IV has film

Rivals.com: Rivals Spotlight: Finis Stribling
KC Star: Nashville cornerback Finis Stribling gives verbal commitment to MU football team
PowerMizzou: Mizzou In The Hunt For Florida Safety
Rivals.com: Rivals Spotlight: Thomas Richard

I was excited to see film of Mr. Stribling emerge ... you know, since I totally bagged on him and Michael Fairchild yesterday. My verdict after watching the highlight package above: The guy has really nice instincts and cover technique. I like his speed, too. I'm a little bit concerned about his tackling -- it seems he basically hits a guy high, then holds on and rides him to the ground -- but you can at least begin to see why coaches thought he was worth an offer. I'm not knocked out like I was with Thomas Richard, but c'est la vie.

5. Ah, so college football coaches are UNDERpaid ... interesting

Forbes.com: The Magic Of Nick Saban: Everyone Wants To Go To Alabama
CBS Sports: Is Nick Saban underpaid? Forbes thinks so

WVU to visit Mizzou on Dec. 5 as part of Big 12/SEC Challenge.

Bill C. — Tue, 14 May 2013 18:41:48 -0000

WVU to visit Mizzou on Dec. 5 as part of Big 12/SEC Challenge.

And the funny part is, Mizzou's the team in the SEC!

2013 Navy football's 10 things to know: Smoke, mirrors, and a sophomore

Bill C. — Mon, 13 May 2013 20:08:39 -0000

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Back on track ... right?

Over the last two seasons, Navy has gone 6-5 in one-possession games and 7-7 in games decided by more than one possession. The Midshipmen's offense plummeted in 2012, from 19th in Off. F/+ in 2010 and 15th in 2011 to 87th. The defense, meanwhile, remained bad. In all, Navy regressed on paper for the third straight year, something about which head coach Ken Niumatalolo should be quite concerned. But that's not necessarily the story line.

In theory, Navy should have had about a .500 record in each of the last two years. But because of the distribution of those close games -- Navy went 2-5 in one-possession games in 2011 and 4-0 in 2012 -- it appears that there was quite a stumble in 2011 (to 5-7) and a lovely bounce back last year (to 8-5). Navy beat Army for the 11th straight year in 2012, won six of seven after switching quarterbacks, and put together another happy season, albeit one that ended with a massacre at the hands of Arizona State in the Fight Hunger Bowl.

Winning can beget more winning. Or it can simply foreshadow drastic regression toward the mean. Navy really wasn't very good in 2012 -- quite a bit worse than in 2011, actually -- and the defense hasn't had hope for a while. But close wins and an exciting young quarterback gave the Midshipmen hope regardless. Does the on-paper regression continue in 2013, or does Navy begin to become its 2012 record instead?

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 \| Adj. Record: 4-9 \| Final F/+ Rk: 97
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	vs. Notre Dame	10-50	L	36.2 - 41.6	L
15-Sep	at Penn State	7-34	L	25.6 - 41.2	L
22-Sep	VMI	41-3	W	29.2 - 27.7	W
29-Sep	San Jose State	0-12	L	9.2 - 25.4	L
6-Oct	at Air Force	28-21	W	31.4 - 36.9	L
12-Oct	at Central Michigan	31-13	W	26.0 - 22.2	W
20-Oct	Indiana	31-30	W	23.9 - 35.3	L
27-Oct	at East Carolina	56-28	W	48.4 - 30.2	W
3-Nov	Florida Atlantic	24-17	W	29.9 - 33.1	L
10-Nov	at Troy	31-41	L	35.4 - 41.5	L
17-Nov	Texas State	21-10	W	28.2 - 23.3	W
8-Dec	vs. Navy	17-13	W	23.1 - 27.9	L
29-Dec	Arizona State	28-62	L	34.3 - 52.3	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	25.7	83	26.8	55
Adj. Points Per Game	29.8	55	34.2	110

2. Keenan Reynolds made a difference

For the season as a whole, Navy's offense really wasn't very good. Not only did Navy rank outside of the Off. F/+ Top 40 for the first time in the last six seasons, but it finished way out: 87th. That said, the defense was still the primary culprit for any on-field struggle, and the offense did improve by quite a bit over the last eight games.

After bits of playing time here and there (13 passes, 17 rushes), true freshman Keenan Reynolds took over behind center following what was a pretty decent offensive performance against Air Force. Against CMU, he completed six passes for 134 yards and three touchdowns while grinding away on the ground; three games later, he rushed for 159 yards and a score and threw for 147 yards and two scores in a tight win over Florida Atlantic. Reynolds showed balance, poise, and solid control of an offense that hinges on quarterback play as much as any in the country. And despite his youth, he improved Navy's output by about five (adjusted) points.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Opponent 34.6, Navy 26.3 (minus-8.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 8 games): Opponent 33.3, Navy 31.2 (minus-2.1)

Reynolds' emergence has created two conflicting narratives for Navy, really. He allows us to assume that the offense is in good hands for years to come. But he can't play defense.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	78	61	39	78
RUSHING	6	49	27	60
PASSING	121	76	96	61
Standard Downs		50	21	75
Passing Downs		90	99	81
Redzone		32	34	33

Q1 Rk	95	1st Down Rk	53
Q2 Rk	34	2nd Down Rk	61
Q3 Rk	73	3rd Down Rk	95
Q4 Rk	52

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Keenan Reynolds

5'11, 185

So.

108

898

56.5%

11.5%

6.6

Trey Miller

6'0, 199

Sr.

399

59.3%

0.0%

6.8

John Hendrick

6'1, 198

Jr.

** (5.2)

66.7%

0.0%

10.7

Kody Akers

5'10, 201

Jr.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Noah Copeland	FB	5'10, 214	Jr.	NR	140	644	4.6	2.3	5	-10.3
Keenan Reynolds	QB	5'11, 185	So.	NR	134	699	5.2	5.7	10	+1.1
Gee Gee Greene	SB				116	862	7.4	5.0	3	+18.6
Trey Miller	SB	6'0, 199	Sr.	NR	80	358	4.5	3.6	3	-0.4
Bo Snelson	SB				42	273	6.5	3.9	0	-0.4
Prentice Christian	FB				34	160	4.7	3.2	1	-0.1
Darius Staten	SB	5'6, 190	Sr.	NR	21	184	8.8	4.8	1	+7.0
Chris Swain	FB	5'11, 232	So.	NR	14	148	10.6	8.8	1	+6.4
Colin Osborne	SB	5'9, 206	So.	** (5.2)
Demond Brown	SB	5'9, 191	So.	** (5.2)

3. I have a theory

I think the slot back position is the single easiest in college football. Now, "easiest in college football" is not the same as just easy; you still take a lot of hits (in practice and in games), and you have to show good hands (especially in Navy's offense, where slot backs see almost as many targets as wideouts). And it probably goes without saying that you need to be faster than, say, me. Football is difficult at any position; but the slot back might be more easily replaceable than other positions.

The Flexbone offense, particularly Navy's, is set up to pound away with the fullback and quarterback (Navy quarterbacks and fullbacks averaged 31 carries per game in 2012), three to five yards at a time. They want to suck you into defending the middle, and they are just good enough at moving the chains to pull it off. And when you do get wrong-footed, the quarterback pitches wide to the slot back, who races to the corner for an easy seven yards, or 12, or 25. Death by a thousand cuts, followed by a huge slice.

Even last year, as Navy put together its worst advanced offensive numbers in years, it still had a perfectly efficient offense. The big plays were a little harder to come by, and the passing game could have used fewer negative plays, but the "thousand cuts" part of the equation was still there. And with the return of Reynolds and fullback Noah Copeland, we can probably expect more of the same. Copeland's numbers were far from impressive, really, but they didn't really need to be. They had to be just good enough to eventually suck the defense in, and they met that baseline. That Reynolds actually showed solid open-field explosiveness helped.

If my theory holds true, then Navy might not miss Gee Gee Greene all that much. As long as replacements like converted quarterback Trey Miller and sophomores Colin Osborne and Demond Brown have enough speed to exploit the free yards that they are given, Navy's run game will be fine. That said ... Greene did have some serious speed. More than any recent Navy slot back, Greene was able to not only accept the free yardage but burst out for more. Navy cannot afford to lose much of the explosiveness it did have last year, so easy or not, the slot back position will need to come through.

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Gee Gee Greene

309

56.3%

9.7

19.9%

53.6%

10.9

41.3

Brandon Turner

321

75.9%

11.1

18.0%

42.9%

9.8

39.3

Shawn Lynch

6'0, 190

Sr.

286

51.9%

10.6

16.8%

42.3%

12.2

38.6

Casey Bolena

6'2, 210

Sr.

146

61.9%

7.0

13.0%

65.0%

6.9

21.1

Noah Copeland

5'10, 214

Jr.

75.0%

5.7

9.9%

33.3%

4.9

13.1

Bo Snelson

38.5%

6.2

8.1%

81.8%

7.1

9.4

Matt Aiken

6'0, 195

Sr.

70.0%

6.1

6.2%

85.7%

9.4

7.1

Darius Staten

5'6, 190

Sr.

16.7%

1.2

3.7%

80.0%

1.1

1.0

Geoffrey Whiteside

5'10, 171

Jr.

100.0%

8.8

2.5%

50.0%

13.7

3.5

Ryan Williams-Jenkins

5'8, 170

Jr.

** (5.2)

100.0%

22.0

0.7%

100.0%

13.3

3.2

John Howell

100.0%

9.0

0.7%

100.0%

5.4

1.3

Thomas Wilson

6'0, 192

So.

Brandon Dudeck

6'0, 202

Jr.

*** (5.5)

Greg Bryant

6'2, 206

Jr.

Jamir Tillman

6'3, 191

Fr.

*** (5.5)

Chandler Powell

6'0, 173

Fr.

** (5.4)

4. A not-altogether-awful passing game

For the second straight season, Navy ranked 76th in Passing S&P+. That isn't great, but it is probably acceptable for this offense. But with Reynolds at quarterback, the Midshipmen sacrificed some explosiveness for better efficiency; Navy's Passing PPP+ rank fell from 41st to 61st, but its Passing Success Rate+ rose from 111th to 96th. In Brandon Turner, the receiving corps had a truly efficient option, a guy who was able to combine a 76 percent catch rate with a healthy per-catch average of 14.6 yards. But both Turner and Greene, the leading receiver, are gone, and it will be interesting to see how roles change. The duo of big-play Shawn Lynch and possession guy Casey Bolena might have some potential, but there are a few new names on the depth chart as well.

The biggest threat to Navy's efficiency, however, might not be Turner's absence; it could be sacks. Reynolds takes a lot of them, especially on passing downs. It's nice that he wants to make plays and is willing to take hits, but it's detrimental to a field position battle that means a ton to a team like Navy.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111.8	3.57	3.48	47.9%	72.4%	13.6%	59.0	5.1%	12.5%
Rank	20	2	36	3	39	4	119	70	120

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
John Cabral	LG				38 career starts
Graham Vickers	RT	6'1, 254	Sr.	** (5.3)	15 career starts
Ryan Paulson	LT				13 career starts
Jake Zuzek	RG	6'0, 310	Jr.	NR	13 career starts
Tanner Fleming	C	6'2, 276	Jr.	** (5.4)	11 career starts
Andrew Barker	LT				6 career starts
Bradyn Heap	RT	6'3, 288	Jr.	NR	2 career starts
Thomas Stone	LG	6'3, 295	Sr.	** (5.2)	1 career start
Kahikolu Pescaia	C
Matthew Van Halanger	RT	6'3, 259	Sr.	NR
Chris Nurthen	RT	6'3, 260	Jr.	NR
Joey Gaston	LT	6'5, 281	So.	** (5.4)
E.K. Binns	LG	6'3, 287	So.	** (5.3)
Brandon Greene	C	6'3, 257	So.	NR
Ben Tamburello	RG	6'2, 275	So.	** (5.4)

5. Beware the cut block

At both the college and pro levels, we've heard a lot in recent years about the cut block, its danger, and the efforts to eradicate it from the game. No team in the country is better at the cut block than Navy, a team that ranked in the Adj. Line Yards top 20, created opportunities for its runners and avoided negative plays on the ground as well as any in the country; the cut block uses a defense's size against it, and when you've got players like Graham Vickers, a 254-pound right tackle, you aren't going to be able to simply out-girth many defenses. Plus, when defenders are paranoid about blockers diving at their feet and upending them, they tend to play more hesitantly. It's obvious why a team like Navy would use such a tactic.

Significant rule changes in this regard would basically force Navy to go with more of the zone blocking that Air Force utilizes; it wouldn't be a death knell for the Flexbone offense, but it would initiate some serious change.

Regardless, the cut block is still legal in 2013, and Navy should still be really good at it. Three-year starting guard John Cabral is gone, but five players with starting experience return, including three full-time (or close to it) starters.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	72	107	122	83
RUSHING	95	118	123	91
PASSING	40	93	117	79
Standard Downs		105	123	87
Passing Downs		97	114	83
Redzone		113	99	111

Q1 Rk	105	1st Down Rk	109
Q2 Rk	118	2nd Down Rk	120
Q3 Rk	97	3rd Down Rk	64
Q4 Rk	104

6. Bend ... bend ... bend...

On Monday, we talked about Army's woeful defense, an aggressive unit that made some plays but got steamrolled by most of the teams it played, especially in the first two-thirds of the season. Navy's defense, on the other hand, was one of the most passive in the country. It was slightly more successful than Army's (or less unsuccessful, anyway), but in a desperate attempt to prevent big plays, Navy was a sieve up front, with the second-most inefficient run defense in the country and no major passing downs pass rush to get it out of jams (not that Navy actually forced many passing downs). It was a bend-don't-break defense that bent too much. And without its lone play-maker (linebacker Keegan Wetzel), Navy might be forced to attempt more of the same in 2013.

Not very long ago, by the way, all three service academies fielded defenses that were somewhere between competent and elite. In 2009, Air Force ranked 12th in Def. F/+, Navy ranked 35th, and Army ranked 54th. In 2012, they ranked 99th, 107th, and 124th, respectively. It is easy to point to a simple lack of size, talent, and athleticism as the cause for 2012's struggles; the service academies are always going to be undersized and athletically out-manned. But less than four years ago, all three teams had figured out ways not to stink on defense. We can explain part of that by pointing out that Air Force's defensive coordinator at the time was Tim DeRuyter, who has since proven his coaching mettle at Texas A&M (defensive coordinator) and Fresno State (head coach). And Navy's 2009 defense probably benefited from Ricky Dobbs' deft engineering of the offense; as a Missouri fan, I watched my team grow quickly desperate and take silly chances on offense as Dobbs pulled off six-minute drive after six-minute drive.

Still, that doesn't explain Army, which had a positively awful offense in 2009. And it doesn't change the fact that Navy's offense stayed strong in 2010 and 2011 while the defense fell off of a cliff. Was the 2009 season the outlier, or are we living through one right now? Is it possible for service academies, which will always be outmanned from a size-and-athleticism standpoint, to field a quality defense without a coordinator who will quickly leave them for a bigger job?

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	83.9	3.50	3.43	47.2%	67.9%	15.0%	78.2	3.6%	5.2%
Rank	118	122	84	123	61	112	97	99	86

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Wes Henderson	DE				13	31.0	4.2%	5	3.5	0	3	1	0
Evan Palelei	DE	6'3, 247	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	23.5	3.2%	1.5	0.5	0	1	2	0
Barry Dabney	NG	6'1, 302	Sr.	** (5.2)	13	14.0	1.9%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Danny Ring	NG	6'2, 260	Jr.	** (5.0)	13	13.0	1.8%	2	1	0	0	0	0
Paul Quessenberry	DE	6'2, 251	Jr.	NR	13	11.5	1.6%	1.5	1	0	0	0	0
Josh Dowling-Fitzpatrick	DE				10	9.5	1.3%	2.5	0	0	0	0	0
Travis Bridges	NG	6'0, 318	Sr.	NR	13	8.5	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Collin Sturdivant	DE				7	4.5	0.6%	2	1	0	0	1	0
Bernard Sarra	NG	6'1, 303	So.	** (5.1)	8	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Will Anthony	DE	6'1, 238	So.	** (5.3)	13	4.0	0.5%	1	0	0	0	0	1
Aaron Davis	DE	6'0, 251	Jr.	** (5.2)	11	2.0	0.3%	0.5	0	0	0	0	1
David Gordeuk	DE	6'3, 236	So.	NR
Sean Spencer	DE	6'4, 255	Fr.	*** (5.6)
Eli Dawson	DE	6'5, 230	Fr.	** (5.4)
Michael Raiford	NG	6'6, 285	Fr.	** (5.4)

Linebackers

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Matt Warrick

ILB

69.5

9.4%

4.5

Keegan Wetzel

OLB

62.0

8.4%

Brye French

ILB

59.0

8.0%

Cody Peterson

ILB

6'3, 228

Sr.

47.5

6.5%

Jordan Drake

OLB

6'4, 220

Jr.

37.0

5.0%

4.5

Josh Tate

OLB

5'11, 209

Jr.

19.0

2.6%

2.5

Obi Uzoma

OLB

6'3, 231

Jr.

8.5

1.2%

1.5

James Britton

ILB

6'2, 223

Jr.

** (5.4)

4.5

0.6%

A.K. Akpunku

OLB

6'3, 238

So.

** (5.3)

1.5

0.2%

Vinnie Mauro

ILB

6'2, 231

Sr.

*** (5.5)

Anthony Lewis

ILB

6'0, 229

Jr.

*** (5.6)

Maika Polamalu

ILB

6'0, 218

Jr.

*** (5.5)

Chris Johnson

OLB

6'1, 207

Jr.

Nathaniel Ozdemir

6'2, 225

Fr.

** (5.4)

Colton Jumper

6'2, 218

Fr.

** (5.4)

Mike Kelly

6'1, 210

Fr.

** (5.4)

7. New blood at linebacker

To the extent that there were stars on the Navy defense last year, the first two on the list probably had to be Keegan Wetzel and Matt Warrick, both of whom are now gone. In their place is a depth chart full of potential and minimal known productivity. Jordan Drake and Josh Tate combined for seven tackles for loss among their 56.0 tackles, and three former three-star recruits could be part of the rotation. And depending on which of the three high-two-star recruits makes it to Annapolis and stays, there could be a nice youth boost as well. The ceiling for this unit might actually be pretty high, but considering how productive Wetzel in particular was last year (he alone accounted for nearly one-third of Navy's TFLs), the young guys will certainly need to produce pretty quickly.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tra'ves Bush	ROV				13	68.5	9.3%	1	0	0	5	1	1
Parrish Gaines	CB	6'2, 196	Jr.	** (5.2)	13	55.5	7.5%	2	0	2	2	0	0
Wave Ryder	ROV	6'2, 207	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	40.5	5.5%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Kwazel Bertrand	CB	5'10, 186	So.	NR	12	32.0	4.4%	2	1	0	4	0	1
Chris Ferguson	FS	6'2, 195	Jr.	NR	9	29.0	3.9%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Quincy Adams	CB	5'11, 195	So.	NR	10	23.0	3.1%	1	0	1	4	0	1
Jonathan Wev	CB				2	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Markovsky	FS	6'1, 191	So.	** (5.4)	7	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Myer Krah	CB	5'11, 203	So.	** (5.4)	5	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
George Jamison	ROV	6'0, 197	Jr.	NR	5	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Shelley White	CB	5'10, 190	So.	** (5.3)
Eric Johnson	CB	5'10, 191	Jr.	NR
Lorentez Barbour	ROV	6'1, 195	So.	NR

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Pablo Beltran	6'2, 225	Jr.	44	43.6	6	15	18	75.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Colin Amerau	6'2, 195	Jr.	63	60.7	19	30.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Nick Sloan	6'0, 190	So.	41-41	9-12	75.0%	1-3	33.3%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Marcus Thomas	KR	5'7, 165	Sr.	21	23.0	0
Ryan Williams	KR	5'8, 170	Jr.	10	22.3	0
Gee Gee Greene	KR			6	31.2	1
Shawn Lynch	PR	6'0, 190	Sr.	11	9.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	43
Net Punting	43
Net Kickoffs	88
Touchback Pct	79
Field Goal Pct	75
Kick Returns Avg	29
Punt Returns Avg	64

8. A solid punter

Sacks hurt Navy in the field position department, to an extent; but a) we're still talking about a small number of sacks here (because we're still talking about a small number of passes), and b) Navy still finished a healthy 61st in Field Position Advantage, in part, because of quality kick returns and a hell of a punter in Pablo Beltran. Gee Gee Greene was probably the best kick returner, but he only returned six of them; the two leaders in that department are back, as is Beltran. This is a good thing. though one does wonder if Beltran could do a little better in the kickoffs department than Colin Amerau.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
7-Sep	at Indiana	70
14-Sep	Delware	NR
28-Sep	at Western Kentucky	94
5-Oct	Air Force	91
12-Oct	at Duke	77
19-Oct	at Toledo	62
26-Oct	Pittsburgh	31
2-Nov	at Notre Dame	8
9-Nov	Hawaii	100
16-Nov	South Alabama	119
22-Nov	at San Jose State	72
14-Dec	vs. Army	103

Five-Year F/+ Rk	60
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	110
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	0 / +3.5
TO Luck/Game	-1.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (8, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-0.4

9. This is pretty fun

Pardon me while I put on a football helmet and run through a wall.

10. 12 straight?

The goals for Navy in a given season do not, of course, include putting together a quality F/+ rating. (That's good, because they haven't for a couple of years now.) They are, probably in order, to beat Army and to overcome size/speed disadvantages enough to reach a bowl game. In that sense, Navy has met both criteria in nine of the last 11 years and met one of two in the other two.

This program has come a long way since it was going 3-30 from 2000-'02. The margin for error has shrunk as the team has regressed, and the Midshipmen did need a late fumble recovery to win their 11th straight over Army last December (and some close-games luck to make a bowl).

But the offense will have an exciting face (Keenan Reynolds') for the next three years, and while the schedule is rather daunting in spots (at least, for a team that might struggle to crack the F/+ Top 90), I'm going to assume that Navy makes another bowl, if just barely, in 2013. But to get to six wins, the Midshipmen might very well need to win a 12th straight Army game. You know, in case the stakes for that game needed to be raised any higher.

More from SB Nation:

• When the SEC’s seven-year streak could’ve ended

• EDSBS: Get yourself a field like Wyoming’s

• Nick Saban doesn’t have time for Bob Stoops’ s---

• Be careful with the USA Today college sports revenue database

PowerMizzou: Championship Pedigree

Mizzou Links, 5-14-13

Bill C. — Tue, 14 May 2013 09:44:51 -0000

1. Mizzou Football scores two more under-the-radar commitments

Michael Fairchild
PowerMizzou: Mizzou adds another OL
KC Star: BVW tackle Michael Fairchild commits to Mizzou

Finis Stribling IV
PowerMizzou: TN DB makes quick decision

I'm not going to lie: Each time I see a headline that Mizzou has scored another football commitment, I want it to be someone big, with a lovely recruiting ranking. Obviously. As Missouri fans, we've grown very much accustomed to citing Sean Weatherspoon and Danario Alexander and pointing out that few major conference teams in the country have a better track record of finding diamonds in the rough than this staff. And it's true. Still ... I like stars, and I like it when Mizzou makes statements by landing guys with lots of stars. So I was a bit conflicted last night when two more diamond-in-the-rough types landed on Mizzou's commitment list.

First of all, if Michael Fairchild and Finis Stribling received offers from Missouri, that means they met a pretty high athletic baseline. Mizzou has shown that it is more than willing to find strong athletes first and teach them a position later. Fairchild, from Overland Park's Blue Valley West high school, is long and lean (6'6, 265), and if Mizzou offered him (in May, no less -- it's not like this was a last-second, "It's January, and we really need more bodies" offer), that means they think they can pack on about another 30 pounds and maintain his athleticism. That's great. And Stribling, a cornerback from Thompson Station Independence in Tennessee (who plans to become a Physics major, evidently), is evidently a track star. So you know he probably meets the requisite speed requirements.

I'm trying to talk myself into these guys, in other words. I'm ready for Mizzou to land a four- (or at least three-) star guy at some point, but there are still most likely between 10 and 15 spots left in this class and plenty of time for that to happen. Besides ... "We do what we do," right? Welcome, guys. Hope you become All-Americans.

2. Wesley Clark and Johnathan Williams III bring state championships to Mizzou

Two freshman point guards, a high-high-high-caliber freshman power forward, a raw JUCO center with great size, Jabari Brown and Earnest Ross, Stefan Jankovic, Jordan Clarkson ... there is so much potential on next year's basketball team, and with almost no sure-thing production whatsoever. I just have no idea what to think, and that probably isn't going to change between now and mid-November.

3. Mizzou Track is ready for more

The Trib: Quigley unsatisfied with fourth place
KC Star: Missouri’s Kearsten Peoples gets redemption in shot put

4. Will Mizzou Baseball make the SEC Tournament?

SimmonsField.com: No Baker's Dozen: Will MU Make the Tourney Cut?
SimmonsField.com: SEC Scramble, With a Side of Tremendous Stubble

5. Happy belated birthday, Stevie Wonder

Okayplayer: Happy Birthday Stevie Wonder, From Randy Watson Experience

Random blast from the past: Jackie Sherrill eyes Texas A&M

Bill C. — Sun, 12 May 2013 19:00:29 -0000

I was not looking for a January 1982 article on Jackie Sherrill, but when you fall down the Google rabbit hole, you get sidetracked. So fine, let's get sidetracked.

Before Sherrill was leading Mississippi State to unexpectedly great and unexpectedly terrible seasons, and before he was making "Jackie Sherrill Castration" a legitimate Google search item (here's the most interesting read from that search), Sherrill was Pittsburgh's head coach, the guy who recruited Dan Marino, the guy who, as associate head coach, had helped Johnny Majors to put the pieces together for Pitt's rather surprising 1976 national title season.

Following the 1976 title, Pitt lost Majors to Tennessee. They snatched up Sherrill, who had spent one season as Washington State head coach (Wazzu would replace him with Warren Powers, who also stayed for just one year before taking the Missouri job), and while Sherrill didn't win another title, wow, did he come close. Pitt went 11-1 in 1979, losing only at North Carolina early in the season. The next year, the Panthers went 11-1 again, losing only at Florida State. And in 1981, they began the season ranked eight and spent a month at No. 1 before a jarring blowout loss to No. 11 Penn State. They rebounded with a 24-20 win over Herschel Walker and No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, but a couple of weeks after the bowls, they found themselves once again about to lose their head man.

Sherrill indeed left for Texas A&M, where he was tasked with rebuilding a program that had fallen on hard times. Tom Wilson had gone just 17-17 in three seasons, and it took Sherrill three years (16-16-1 record) to build anything noteworthy. He went 29-7 from 1985-87, but A&M was put on probation in 1988, and he resigned that December. He resurfaced three years later in Starkville, where he won some games, took home the 1998 SEC West title, and castrated a bull.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is still trying to recover. Foge Fazio did pretty well with Sherrill's recruits -- the Panthers started the 1982 season, Marino's senior year, at No. 1, but lost three times and finished No. 10. They went 8-3-1 in 1983 and started 1984 ranked third in the country but finished just 3-7-1. Fazio was done a year later. In the 27 seasons since Fazio's departure, PItt has finished ranked only four times, never better than 15th in 2009.

The Greatest, #91: Missouri 69, Louisville 55 (1982)

Bill C. — Sun, 12 May 2013 19:06:27 -0000

Missouri showed why it's ranked second in one college basketball poll and third in another Sunday by defeating Louisville in a televised game in St. Louis, 69-55, Sunday.

Unbeaten Missouri's showing didn't surprise its coach, Norm Stewart. "I felt everyone would play a little above themselves because of last year's game," he said.

A year ago, then-defending national [champion] Louisville routed Missouri, 71-49. But the Tigers returned the favor Sunday, outscoring the Cardinals in the final nine minutes of the first half, 22-4, to take a 38-24 lead that Louisville, ranked 13th and 17th, couldn't recover from.

Ricky Frazier scored 22 points for Missouri, now 14-0 and off to its best start in 60 years.

-- The AP/UPI, 1/18/1982

You don't necessarily get to choose when you peak, either in a given season or in a specific era. For the Stipo-and-Sundvold era at Mizzou, the peak most likely came in January 1982. The Tigers had already won the last two conference titles, but after reaching the Sweet 16 in 1980, they had faltered a bit in 1981, finishing the season with losses to Kansas in the Big 8 Tournament and Lamar in the NCAAs. But things were different in 1981-82. Ranked 16th to start the season, Mizzou returned three starters (Ricky Frazier, Steve Stipanovich, Jon Sundvold) and a key backup (Moon McCrary) and welcomed some new (Prince Bridges, Michael Walker) and old names (Mark Dressler, who sat out the 1980-81 season) to the rotation. The Tigers were simply loaded, and things clicked from the start of the season.

Mizzou took out Illinois, 78-68, in Champaign in overtime, then thumped No. 19 UAB, 98-80, in the Winston Tire Classic in L.A. The Tigers destroyed Notre Dame by 22 in Kansas City and started conference play 2-0 before a pretty big weekend.

This was it, the year above all years, the season in which Missouri broke from the pack and stood shoulder to shoulder with the nation's best. No longer just a regional power, Missouri, for the first time, was rated the top team in America, a true hoops heavyweight. [...]

After beating Oklahoma State in Columbia, the Tigers faced a brutal weekend excursion that cemented their new stature. It began on a Saturday night at Nebraska, where [Prince] Bridges sank a shot at the buzzer to give Missouri a 44-42 win. The Tigers then raced to catch a flight to St. Louis, where they faced Louisville in a noon tip-off on Sunday. It was an accomodation for television as NBC gave the nation its first glimpse of the surging Tigers. Despite the circumstances, Missouri showed no signs of fatigue. Ricky Frazier scored twenty-two points, and Moon McCrary held Louisville star Derek Smith to seven as the Tigers rolled the Cardinals 69-55. While Norm Stewart's club dismantled a perennial national power, television commentator (and Hall of Fame coach) Al McGuire exclaimed, "Gang, Missouri is for real!"

-- Michael Atchison, True Sons: A Century of Missouri Basketball

The following Wednesday, Missouri held off Kansas, 41-35, in Columbia, then welcomed Oklahoma the following Saturday. Thanks to a loss by No. 1 North Carolina, Mizzou could advance to the top spot with a win over Billy Tubbs and the Sooners. More from Atchison:

When Oklahoma visited on January 23, the weight of the moment did not faze the Tigers. Before a record crowd of 12,944, Norm Stewart's club stormed the Sooners. Missouri raced to a 14-4 lead, withstood a brief Oklahoma run, then put the game away. As the lead grew to thirty points in the second half, the delirious crowd chanted, "We're number one!" and the Tigers eased to an emphatic 84-64 triumph. Oklahoma coach Billy Tubbs would not dispute the fans' take on Mizzou's standing. "I'd be pretty stupid to say they don't deserve to be number one," he said. "What would the number one team do to us then?"

I've told this story before, but in 2008, as Missouri was gaining 651 yards and scoring 69 points on Nevada, as they were scoring touchdowns of 80 (Chase Daniel pass to Jeremy Maclin), 59 (Derrick Washington run), 49 (Daniel to Maclin), and 32 yards (Tommy Saunders to Chase Coffman), The Beef and I looked at each other and said, "This offense is never going to be better than this." It couldn't be. The peak for the Daniel offense happened that Saturday in Columbia.

While Norm Stewart's squad would continue to thrive -- the Tigers won two more conference titles in 1982 and 1983 and won the Big 8 Tournament and reached the Sweet 16 again in 1982 -- it still probably never got better than that week, from one Saturday night in Lincoln to the next in Columbia. This was the greatest week of Mizzou's greatest era.

2013 Madrid Open: What last week can tell us about the upcoming French Open

Bill C. — Sun, 12 May 2013 18:26:15 -0000

Madrid is the second-to-last major tune-up before everybody heads to Roland Garros for the French Open at the end of May. As the last tune-up, the Internazionali BNL d'Italia in Rome, gets rolling let's take a look back at what we learned in Madrid.

15-0: Rafael Nadal is Rafael Nadal

Hahaha, Rafa's reaction after the first bite. He knew it was awkward right away. twitter.com/nidssserz/stat…
— Nida (@nidssserz) May 12, 2013

The road actually got easier for eventual men's champion Rafael Nadal toward the end of the week. After receiving a first-round bye, Nadal had to take out Benoit Paire (the No. 29 clay court player in the world according to Advanced Baseline) in the second round and Mikhail Youzhny (No. 53) in the third, then faced David Ferrer (No. 3) in the quarterfinals. It was a loaded draw.

Nadal dropped only 12 games versus Paire and Youzhny but got all he could handle from Ferrer, who took the first set and created opportunities in the second. But Nadal eventually prevailed in a second-set tie-breaker, then rolled through the third, 6-0, to advance to the semifinals. There, he smoked surprising wildcard Pablo Andujar, then took the title with a 6-2, 6-4 win over Stan Wawrinka.

Nadal certainly benefited a bit from a series of upsets -- No. 1 Novak Djokovic lost in the second round to Grigor Dimitrov, No. 2 Roger Federer lost in the third round to No. 14 Kei Nishikori, and No. 3 Andy Murray lost to No. 6 Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals -- but those upsets didn't change what we already know: Only Djokovic can beat Nadal on clay.

Despite missing quite a bit of 2012 with injury and easing into the 2013 schedule, Rafael Nadal is once again Rafael Nadal. He is the world's best clay-court player, and he seems to have found fifth gear just in time to make a run at his eighth French Open title in a couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, if the 28-year old Wawrinka is ever going to make a serious breakthrough in a slam (his best finishes to date are quarterfinal appearances at the 2010 U.S. Open and 2011 Australian Open), it will probably be on clay. He is a top 10 player on the surface, and in taking out Dimitrov, No. 7 Jo-Wilifried Tsonga, and No. 6 Berdych, he proved he can win some tough, long matches against elite competition. The draw will be very important for him, but if he ends up in a region with Murray or Federer, he could plow through to the semifinals at Roland Garros.

15-all. Serena can play on clay

How to play on the clay RT "@taylorkinmondx: @serenawilliams what was Rafa whispering? ;) #SerenaFriday twitter.com/TaylorKinmondx…"
— Serena Williams (@serenawilliams) May 3, 2013

That Serena Williams needed to beat Maria Sharapova to retain her No. 1 WTA ranking proves that the rankings system is pretty silly. She has clearly been the most dominant player in the world over the past 12 months, but failing to defend her Madrid title would have resulted in quite a few lost rankings points. Alas, that was not a concern. She sleep-walked through the early stages of the tournament (she was taken to a tie-breaker in the first set of her first-round match versus Yanina Putintseva) and dropped a 6-0 set to Anabel Medina Garrigues in the quarterfinals (and was taken to 7-5 in the third); neither of these opponents are particularly amazing on clay. But once she reached the semis, she rounded into form. She whipped 2012 French Open finalist Sara Errani in the semis, 7-5, 6-2, then cruised past Sharapova, 6-1, 6-4, in the finals. Sharapova looked tired at times, but with Williams in a rhythm, it didn't really matter what Sharapova could do.

A year ago, following a first-round upset loss to Virginie Razzano in the first round of the 2012 French Open, it was fair to wonder if Serena Williams could still prove she was the dominant player on the women's tour. In fact, I did just that. But beginning around the midway point of Wimbledon a month later, she clicked. She has spent most of the last 11 months dominating the sport, and despite her quarterfinal loss to Sloane Stephens at the Australian Open in January, she is likely poised for another big year in the slams. She has only won one French Open (she beat her sister Venus in the finals of the 2002 tournament), and the early rounds at Madrid proved that she can still lose focus at times. But she is the clear French favorite.

30-15: Grigor Dimitrov might be just about ready

We've heard for a while now that 21-year old Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov could be the Next Big Thing in men's tennis. A fantastic juniors player (2008 Wimbledon and U.S. Open junior champion), he has a fantastic skill set, but his senior career has been all potential with little production thus far. His best slam finishes to date were three second-round appearances in 2012. But he is most certainly on the ascent. He had found his way into the Top 30 of both the ATP tour and Advanced Baseline rankings, and in Madrid, he scored the biggest win of his career: a 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, second-round victory over Djokovic. He also took the first set from Wawrinka in the third round before faltering. He should be seeded at the French Open, where anything less than a third-round appearance would have to be considered disappointing.

Of course, simply winning a big matches wasn't enough for him. He also figured out how to make the gossip pages. Big week for young Grigor.

30-all: Ana Ivanovic looks good

Not in that way. Okay, in that way, too, but you know what I'm getting at here.

The 2008 French Open champion and former No. 1 has spent most of the last half-decade ranked between about 10th and 20th, trying to fix her game and advance back to the elite level. She has had a nice 2013 season thus far, and she continued that in Madrid. Clay is her best surface, and she survived a tough draw to reach the semifinals. She took out surging American Bethanie Mattek-Sands (No. 24 on clay according to Advanced Baseline) in three sets in the first round, survived young Brit Laura Robson in the third round, and crushed sixth-seed Angelique Kerber in the quarterfinals before bowing out to Sharapova.

Top 10 women's clay-courters according to Advanced Baseline (May 2013)
1. Serena Williams
2. Maria Sharapova
3. Victoria Azarenka
4. Na Li
5. Agnieszka Radwanska
6. Ana Ivanovic
7. Sara Errani
8. Sam Stosur
9. Venus Williams
10. Svetlana Kuznetsova

According to these rankings, Ivanovic was supposed to do well this past week. But meeting expectations has been an issue at times. Madrid was another nice step forward.

40-30: The "Has the end come for Federer?" narrative isn't going away

The 2013 season hasn't been very fun for men's tennis' greatest of all-time. No. 1 late in 2012, he has fallen to third overall and could fall even further once Nadal has played enough tournaments. He lost to Andy Murray in the Aussie semifinals, then lost to Julien Benneteau in Rotterdam and Berdych in Dubai and was crushed by Nadal in Indian Wells. He took most of two months off before Madrid to rest but fell in three sets to Kei Nishikori in his second match.

People have been predicting Federer's demise for years now, as if there is a prize to win if you get it right the fastest. I have long hated narratives like this, simply because when a champion is officially done, we know it. We don't have to guess, we don't have to get a jump on reality; reality makes itself known when it needs to. And whether this is truly the end or not, it has certainly been a poor few months for Fed. Clay has never been his strong suit to begin with, and now he plods toward Roland Garros with more doomsayers than ever.

Deuce: Andy Murray isn't a clay guy (yet)

Top 10 Clay-Courters according to Advanced Baseline (May 2013):
1. Rafael Nadal
2. Novak Djokovic
3. David Ferrer
4. Roger Federer
5. Juan Martin del Potro
6. Nicolas Almagro
7. Tomas Berdych
8. Stan Wawrinka
9. Andy Murray
10. Richard Gasquet

Andy Murray is almost as good as it gets on hard courts, and he will likely be the Wimbledon favorite in June when the abbreviated grass court season begins. And because of the points he had stored up, he has reached No. 2 in the ATP rankings despite the fact that he really hasn't played that well since the Australian Open. He lost to del Potro in the quarterfinals at Indian Wells (6-1 in the third), survived to take the Miami title despite not playing very well, got destroyed by Wawrinka in Monte Carlo (6-1, 6-1), and in Madrid, barely held on versus Florian Meyer and Gilles Simon before falling in straight sets to Berdych.

Murray appeared to lose his form a bit toward the end of hard court season, and he has not been very good at all in his two clay tournaments thus far. The clay-court specialists who end up in his region at the French Open will be licking their chops.

Ad: Sloane Stephens' outspokenness is charming at times and can get her into trouble at other times

This has very little to do with Madrid itself; Stephens was whipped in straight sets by 30-year old Daniela Hantuchova in the first round. But in case you missed it, Stephens, who has fallen into a terrible slump since reaching the Australian Open semifinals, vented a bit to ESPN the Magazine recently.

“She’s not said one word to me, not spoken to me, not said hi, not looked my way, not been in the same room with me since I played her in Australia,” Stephens says emphatically. “And that should tell everyone something, how she went from saying all these nice things about me to unfollowing me on Twitter.”

Her mom tries to slow her down, but Sloane is insistent. “Like, seriously! People should know. They think she’s so friendly and she’s so this and she’s so that — no, that’s not reality! You don’t unfollow someone on Twitter, delete them off of BlackBerry Messenger. I mean, what for? Why?” […]

“I’ve always said Kim Clijsters is my favorite player, so it’s kind of weird,” she says.

Quite a few American women looked good in Madrid; Serena won the title, Madison Keys destroyed No. 5 Na Li in the first round, Varvara Lepchenko took out No. 12 Roberta Vinci and proved again that clay is probably her best surface, Christina McHale beat Shuai Peng in the first round, and even in losing to Ivanovic, Mattek-Stands proved that she is a potential force on clay. Stephens' comments perhaps distracted us a bit from the fact that she's looked mostly awful since Melbourne; an early-round loss at the French Open, however, would certainly get our attention in that regard.

Game: Clay is crazy

On the men's side, the No. 1 seed lost in the second round, the No. 2 lost in the third, and the No. 3 lost in the quarterfinals. Plus, the No. 8 lost in the second round, and the No. 9 and No. 10 lost in the first. On the women's side, the top two seeds made the finals, but No. 3 lost in the second round, No. 4 got obliterated in the second, No. 5 got thumped in the first, No. 8 lost in the second, and No. 9 and No. 10 lost in the first.

It feels at times that the clay courts have sped up just enough to prevent quite as many upsets from taking place. And then, at times, you get Madrid. For all we know, the top seeds will hold form at the French Open in two weeks, but if Madrid is any indication, it could be another free-for-all.

2013-14 Mizzou basketball: Schedule updates, court updates, and Jordan Clarkson

Bill C. — Mon, 13 May 2013 12:15:54 -0000

We've some basketball news piling up in recent days.

1. Frank Haith speaks

The Trib: Full slate ahead for Haith

Q: How good can Jordan Clarkson be?

A: He's a stud. He's a stud. He's good. He's really good. I don't want to put so much pressure on him, but I talk about him like I talked about Jabari. I think Jabari answered the bell, too. I think Jabari, shoot, he'll be one of the leading scorers returning in the SEC. I remember telling you guys how good I think Jabari is, and he was really just a freshman. I think Jordan is equally as good.

Q: And more seasoned.

A: Yeah, because he's played college ball for two years. He does everything. He can do everything on the basketball court. There is nothing he can't do. He can handle it, he can shoot it, he can pass it, he's athletic, he's quick, he's got a burst at 6-(foot)-5. He can low-post you and score in the paint, he can drive you off the bounce and he can catch and shoot. He's a versatile guy. I would anticipate him being one of our main guys, frontline guys. There's no secret that I think he and Jabari and EJ (Earnest Ross) will be guys that can help us offensively. All three of those guys.

Really nice Q&A from Haith and Steve Walentik. Haith talks about toughness and improvement on defense -- as he points out, Mizzou really did improve defensively in 2012-13 but certainly didn't improve quite enough -- and goes into detail about college basketball's transfer culture, the incoming newcomers, rules changes, SEC Network, etc. And yeah, I'm all for Clarkson being a stud; can he play defense?

2. A judge says no to bank records petition

The Trib: Judge denies Haith's petition involving Bank of America
KC Star: Judge denies Haith’s petition regarding bank records

Frank Haith’s petition to subpoena Bank of America employees has been denied by a federal judge in Florida.

Haith, Missouri’s men’s basketball coach, filed a Rule 27 petition — a tool used to collect testimony or evidence that could be used in a future lawsuit — on Monday to determine whether the bank shared detailed records from his personal business account during the NCAA’s two-year investigation of the University of Miami.

Pompano Beach, Fla., attorney Michael Buckner, who represents Haith, hoped the petition would at least lead to a hearing, which could have led to a judge allowing Haith’s lawyers to subpoena the bank and depose employees who may have had access to the account. It could have also prohibited the bank from destroying pertinent evidence.

But U.S. District Judge Robin Rosenbaum ruled Thursday that Haith had no basis for such a request and that he failed to satisfy the requirements for a hearing.

I was really looking forward to NCAA officials being subpoenaed. Damn.

3. The 2013-14 schedule takes further shape

MUtigers.com: Missouri To Compete In 2013 Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational

As part of the event Missouri will host two home games at Mizzou Arena and will then travel to Las Vegas for games against Northwestern and Nevada. The tournament will be hosted as a "Classic" with Mizzou and UCLA scheduled to finish a home and home series at Mizzou Arena next season.

Missouri's home opponents for the first two rounds of the Invitational will be announced by tournament organizers at a later date. Teams making up the rest of the Las Vegas Invitational field include: the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, Indiana University-Purdue University of Indianapolis (IUPUI), Morehead State (Ky.) and Gardner Webb University (NC).

Backing the Pack: Missouri, FGCU on N.C. State hoops schedule

So ... Northwestern, Nevada, UCLA, Illinois, and N.C. State thus far? Am I missing anybody? Certainly not a murderer's row, but not bad. Honestly, Mizzou is undergoing enough of a personality change next year that it doesn't need a murderer's row. This, plus an improved SEC, should suffice.

4. Phil Pressey is going to the NBA Combine; Alex Oriakhi is not

KC Star: Former MU guard Phil Pressey invited to NBA Combine
Fox Sports MW: Mizzou's Oriakhi denied invite to NBA combine

The Mizzou center who transferred from Connecticut before his senior season shot 63.9 percent from the field and averaged 11.2 points and 8.4 rebounds for the Tigers this year.

At 6-foot-9, 240-pounds, he is a bit undersized for his position. Still, an argument could be made that his strength, rebounding and offensive efficiency could have qualified him for a combine nod — especially since this year's draft class is nothing to write home about.

Instead, the former Tigers' big man who has signed with agent Thad Foucher of Wasserman Media Group will have to catch scouts' eyes another way, like the workout he recently had with the Los Angeles Lakers.

He will be a late second-round pick, if he gets drafted at all. No invitation to the combine tends to be an unfavorable sign.

I guess neither Pressey's inclusion nor Oriakhi's exclusion should be much of a surprise. Here's to hoping Oriakhi catches on somewhere.

2013 Army football's 10 things to know: Searching desperately for a defense

Bill C. — Sun, 12 May 2013 11:19:33 -0000

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. If it isn't one thing, it's another

Rich Ellerson has been in charge at Army for four years. He inherited a program that hadn't seen a winning season or a bowl since 1996. Its rival, Navy, had far surpassed it in recent seasons. The Black Knights had put a decent defense on the field in two years (and six wins) under Stan Brock, but its offense was atrocious. He installed an option attack with a freshman quarterback, Trent Steelman, and with each passing year, Army's offense got better. It surged from 116th in Off. F/+ to 74th in 2010, stagnated a bit in 2011, then surged again to 60th in 2012. By the time Steelman finished his eligibility last year, Army was in possession of a decent offense with a truly strong running game.

But after winning seven games in 2010, Army won just five in 2011-12 combined. Why? Because the defense fell off a cliff. The unit ranked 54th in Def. F/+ in 2009, fell to 88th in 2010, and plummeted to 124th, dead last, in 2012. And despite an improved offense, Army fell from 76th in overall F/+ in 2010 to 106th last fall. Its 2-10 record was its worst since the Conference USA days of 2004.

So where does Army go now? Ellerson was able to see his offensive vision come to life with Steelman behind center, but now Steelman's gone, and the defense is undersized and completely ineffective. And if the D manages to improve in 2013, can the offense avoid offsetting it with regression of its own?

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 \| Adj. Record: 2-10 \| Final F/+ Rk: 106
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
8-Sep	at San Diego State	7-42	L	22.1 - 37.8	L
15-Sep	Northern Illinois	40-41	L	38.9 - 44.3	L
22-Sep	at Wake Forest	37-49	L	33.0 - 64.9	L
29-Sep	Stony Brook	3-23	L	26.5 - 39.2	L
6-Oct	Boston College	34-31	W	38.5 - 42.7	L
13-Oct	Kent State	17-31	L	24.3 - 36.7	L
20-Oct	at Eastern Michigan	38-48	L	31.0 - 43.3	L
27-Oct	Ball State	22-30	L	23.4 - 29.2	L
3-Nov	Air Force	41-21	W	27.8 - 24.1	W
10-Nov	at Rutgers	7-28	L	30.0 - 29.8	W
17-Nov	Temple	32-63	L	34.4 - 62.6	L
8-Dec	vs. Navy	13-17	L	22.3 - 26.6	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	25.3	84	37.0	112
Adj. Points Per Game	30.0	53	41.3	124

2. It got better (sort of)

As we'll see below, the defense was an outright horror show in 2012. But it does have one thing going for it: It was quite a bit better for most of the last five games. One data point (the Temple game) skews that, but if you remove that game for a moment, you get this:

Adj. Points Per Game (first 7 games): Opponent 44.1, Army 30.6 (minus-13.5)
Ad. Points Per Game (last 4 games, sans Temple): Opponent 27.4, Army 25.9 (minus-1.5)

The Eastern Michigan game seemed to be a catalyst of sorts. Army allowed an unforgivable 577 yards and 48 points to what was, according to Off. F/+, the No. 105 offense in the country, but it rebounded from that point forward, allowing 413 yards (5.2 per play) to Ball State (49th in Off. F/+), 338 (4.7 per play) to Air Force (82nd), 252 (4.8) to Rutgers (84th), and 297 (4.6) to Navy (87th). Yes, Temple (565 yards, 9.3 per play) destroyed some of that progress, but the trend was a happy one. So that's something.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	39	56	42	66
RUSHING	1	15	22	15
PASSING	124	116	120	111
Standard Downs		34	16	42
Passing Downs		111	115	107
Redzone		35	36	39

Q1 Rk	34	1st Down Rk	32
Q2 Rk	77	2nd Down Rk	64
Q3 Rk	26	3rd Down Rk	83
Q4 Rk	102

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Trent Steelman

667

47.8%

8.2%

6.3

A.J. Schurr

6'0, 185

So.

** (5.3)

130

44.4%

5.3%

6.8

Angel Santiago

5'11, 188

Jr.

** (5.4)

Kado Brown

6'0, 180

Fr.

** (5.3)

3. Rooting for Trent Steelman

Not that this has anything to do with the 2013 team, but let's just say that it's really easy to root for Trent Steelman. He wasn't much of a passer, but the guy could run the option as well as anybody in the country, featured a fantastic first-step burst, and rushed for more than 3,000 yards and 45 touchdowns in his career. For most of his career, he did things like this. But in his final game, he did this. It was gut-wrenching to watch.

Steelman has now graduated, but before he fulfills the rest of his Army commitments, he gets a chance as a slot receiver with the Baltimore Ravens. It's probably fair to say that the vast majority of college football fans will be rooting for him.

4. Moving on

For the first time since 2009, Army will be looking for a new starting quarterback. Both sophomore A.J. Schurr and junior Angel Santiago seemed to pass muster in spring practice. Schurr was the top backup in 2012, while Santiago got decent playing time in 2011, and in limited action, the two have produced stat lines that left something to be desired:

Schurr in 2012: 8-for-18 passing for 130 yards, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 4.4 yards per carry
Santiago in 2011: 7-for-21 passing for 84 yards, 3.2 yards per pass attempt, 4.0 yards per carry

Schurr was more effective in his opportunities and started with the first-string offense in the 2013 spring game, so he is the odds-on favorite. But whoever wins the job will be following in the footsteps of one of Army's best quarterbacks in recent decades.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Trent Steelman	QB				223	1,295	5.6	6.9	17	+14.7
Raymond Maples	RB	6'1, 218	Sr.	** (5.1)	223	1,215	5.4	3.5	2	+7.9
Larry Dixon	FB	6'0, 238	Jr.	*** (5.5)	140	839	6.0	6.3	6	+18.3
Malcolm Brown	RB				61	441	7.2	4.8	4	+9.2
Hayden Tippett	FB	5'11, 225	Sr.	** (5.0)	46	234	5.1	3.5	1	-1.0
Trenton Turrentine	RB	5'9, 206	Jr.	** (5.4)	29	177	6.1	3.7	1	+2.3
Terry Baggett	RB	6'1, 200	Jr.	** (5.2)	16	138	8.6	5.6	1	+4.7
A.J. Schurr	QB	6'0, 185	So.	** (5.3)	11	48	4.4	3.2	0	-1.0
Stephen Fraser	RB	5'10, 187	Jr.	** (5.2)	10	40	4.0	3.0	0	+0.1
Nehemiah Brown	RB	5'9, 172	Fr.	** (5.3)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Chevaughn Lawrence

6'3, 195

Jr.

357

61.8%

10.5

31.2%

74.2%

9.6

32.0

Patrick Laird

6'3, 219

Sr.

127

34.4%

4.0

29.4%

54.8%

4.1

13.0

Raymond Maples

6'1, 218

Sr.

** (5.1)

108

42.9%

7.7

12.8%

61.5%

8.0

10.6

Malcolm Brown

37.5%

5.8

7.3%

62.5%

5.6

4.7

Anthony Stephens

6'2, 194

Sr.

33.3%

7.7

5.5%

50.0%

8.5

4.7

Scott Williams

5'8, 165

Sr.

** (5.2)

16.7%

1.3

5.5%

83.3%

1.0

0.8

Stephen Fraser

5'10, 187

Jr.

** (5.2)

100.0%

20.0

1.9%

100.0%

12.1

4.1

Larry Dixon

6'0, 238

Jr.

*** (5.5)

100.0%

10.0

1.9%

50.0%

10.0

2.0

Ejay Tucker

5'11, 204

Sr.

** (5.1)

50.0%

9.0

1.9%

100.0%

5.4

1.8

Trenton Turrentine

5'9, 206

Jr.

** (5.4)

100.0%

24.0

1.0%

100.0%

14.5

2.5

Hayden Tippett

5'11, 225

Sr.

** (5.0)

100.0%

3.0

1.0%

100.0%

1.8

0.3

Billy East

5'10, 185

Fr.

** (5.3)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	119.8	3.56	3.14	43.3%	79.7%	11.1%	67.2	5.6%	10.3%
Rank	5	3	69	21	6	1	110	77	108

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Frank Allen	LG				36 career starts
Ryan Powls	C				17 career starts
Michael Kime	RT	6'2, 243	Sr.	** (5.2)	13 career starts
Stephen Shumaker	RG	6'0, 264	Jr.	NR	12 career starts
Ben Jebb	LT				8 career starts
Will Wilson	RG				7 career starts
Derek Bisgard	LT				4 career starts
Zach Reichert	RT	6'2, 250	Sr.	NR	1 career start
John Szott	LG	6'3, 280	Sr.	NR
Dan Whitaker	RT	6'3, 242	Sr.	NR
Nick Bennett	LT	6'1, 238	Jr.	** (5.4)
Todd McDonald	C	5'11, 239	Jr.	NR
Matt Hugenberg	RG	6'3, 285	So.	** (5.2)
Justin Gilbert	RT	6'3, 265	So.	** (5.2)
Patrick Joseph	OL	6'3, 285	Fr.	** (5.4)

5. A legitimately strong run game

If you pound away with the option and run as frequently as Army does, you're going to end up with rushing yards whether or not you're particularly good at it. But it bears mentioning that Army was particularly good at it in 2012. Steelman and fullback Larry Dixon both showed strong explosiveness, while Raymond Maples and Malcolm Brown each took advantage of the opportunities they found on the outside. Plus, they ran behind a line that knew what it was doing. Army had to replace six players with starting experience and headed into 2012 with just 36 career starts up front. But after ranking fifth in Adj. Line Yards in 2011, Army ranked fifth again. Plus, the Black Knights were the best in the country at preventing negative plays on the ground. The backups and first-time starters were upperclassmen who had compiled a bit of experience here and there.

It's the same story in 2013. Of the eight players who finished 2012 with starting experience, five are gone, and Army returns just 26 career starts. But of the nine returnees listed above, four are seniors, and three are juniors. Throw in a pair of interesting sophomores (Matt Hugenberg and Justin Gilbert), both of whom have decent size and started with the first-stringers in the spring game, and you've got a unit that is a little bit less experienced than last year's line, but with a little bit more potential down the road.

(And no, we're not going to spend much time talking about the Army passing game here. It's not very good, but Army never passes. If the Black Knights fall into passing downs, the drive's probably over. But we knew that already.)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	87	124	120	124
RUSHING	121	122	117	123
PASSING	22	124	121	124
Standard Downs		122	118	123
Passing Downs		123	121	124
Redzone		105	113	90

Q1 Rk	124	1st Down Rk	121
Q2 Rk	124	2nd Down Rk	123
Q3 Rk	107	3rd Down Rk	123
Q4 Rk	124

6. What do you do?

How do you go about fixing a defense that was this bad a year ago? Where do you start? For Ellerson, he didn't do anything drastic. Army has the same co-coordinators it did last year (Payam Saadat and Chris Smeland), and it appears it will be running mostly the same scheme. Steadiness works as often as the "freak out and change everything" approach, but wow, would it be tempting to change everything.

Despite what the stats above suggest, Army was actually pretty good at slicing into the opposing backfield. The Black Knights ranked 42nd in Stuff Rate (negative plays on the ground) and 39th in Adj. Sack Rate. Aggression did good things for them at times. But they pretty much had to be aggressive because if they weren't making a play, they were getting pushed around and dominated. There was, again, improvement at the end of the year, but for the season as a whole, the numbers were atrocious: 124th in Passing S&P+, 123rd in Passing Downs S&P+, 122nd in Standard Downs S&P+, 122nd in Rushing S&P+. Yuck.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	90.8	3.26	2.71	43.2%	72.7%	20.8%	114.8	7.4%	5.0%
Rank	105	103	23	111	91	42	39	8	90

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Robert Kough	DT	6'3, 239	Jr.	NR	12	32.0	5.2%	9.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Zach Watts	DE				11	31.0	5.1%	2.5	0	0	0	0	0
Richard Glover	DT	6'0, 247	Jr.	NR	10	18.5	3.0%	7.5	2	0	0	0	1
Jarrett Mackey	DE	6'1, 235	Sr.	NR	7	17.0	2.8%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
James Kelly	DE	6'3, 220	Jr.	** (5.4)	11	10.5	1.7%	1.5	0	0	0	1	0
Michael Ugenyi	DT	6'3, 257	Jr.	NR	11	10.0	1.6%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Holt Zalneraitis	DE	6'2, 224	Sr.	NR	7	8.0	1.3%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Clayton Keller	DE	6'1, 230	Sr	NR	5	6.5	1.1%	3.5	1	0	0	0	0
Joe Drummond	DT	6'3, 228	Jr.	NR	10	6.5	1.1%	2	0.5	0	0	0	0
T.J. Atimalala	DT	5'11, 260	So.	** (5.3)	9	4.5	0.7%	2	0	0	0	0	0
Kyle Maxwell	DE	6'5, 231	Sr.	NR	11	3.5	0.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Dalton Mendenhall	DE	6'3, 225	So.	** (5.3)	12	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Derek Sanchez	DE	6'3, 206	Jr.	** (5.3)	5	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Shane Finnane	DT	5'10, 238	Sr.	NR
Ryan Alexander	DE	6'1, 232	So.	*** (5.5)
Andrew McLean	DE	6'3, 240	Fr.	*** (5.5)

7. A tricky pass rush

Army's 58 tackles for loss really was a nice total for such a bad defense. And while star linebacker Nate Combs is gone, Army does return two interesting players up front: Robert Kough and Richard Glover. Now, to say the least, having two defensive tackles who average 243 pounds has plenty of built-in disadvantages. But the two can slice through the line at times, and sophomore end Ryan Alexander, a first-stringer this spring, brings some three-star upside to the table as well. This is a tiny, tiny line, but it wasn't Army's biggest problem last year, and it won't be this year.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alex Meier	ROV	6'2, 200	So.	NR	12	58.0	9.5%	2	1	1	2	0	2
Nate Combs	BAN				10	47.5	7.8%	12	6	1	4	3	3
Thomas Holloway	ROV	5'11, 196	Sr.	NR	12	19.0	3.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
C.J. Shelley	MLB				9	5.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Zachary Williams	LB	5'11, 202	Sr.	NR	12	4.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Colin Linkul	BAN	6'0, 188	Jr.	NR	11	2.5	0.4%	1.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Corey Watts	LB	5'11, 205	Sr.	NR	3	2.0	0.3%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Stephen Ricciardi	LB	6'0, 196	Jr.	NR	8	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Colby Miller	MLB	6'1, 209	Sr.	NR
Tyler McLees	MLB	5'11, 215	So.	** (5.2)
Scott Washie	LB	6'1, 220	Fr.	** (5.4)

8. Replacing the lone play-maker

The linebacking corps and secondary were almost totally bereft of play-makers in 2012. Linebacker-turned-safety Geoffery Bacon was asked to make far too many tackles but did make a few behind the line; but for the most part, the end-all, be-all on the Army defense was bandit linebacker Nate Combs, who made almost three times as many tackles for loss and sacks (12 and six, respectively) as the rest of the linebackers combined (4.5 and 2.5). He led the team in those categories, forced fumbles, and fumble recoveries, and he was second in passes defensed, and now he's gone. Plus, Bacon has moved to safety, leaving behind a linebacking corps that has no proven play-makers and wasn't very good even with Combs and Bacon.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Geoffery Bacon	FS	6'0, 207	Jr.	** (5.2)	12	100.5	16.4%	4.5	1	1	1	1	0
Brandon Fusilier-Jeffires	FS	6'1, 185	So.	NR	11	66.5	10.9%	1	0	1	2	0	0
Chris Carnegie	CB	6'0, 180	So.	** (5.2)	12	43.0	7.0%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Justin Trimble	SAM	5'11, 204	Sr.	** (5.0)	11	23.5	3.8%	0	0	2	3	0	0
Josh Jackson	CB				9	20.5	3.4%	0.5	0	0	2	0	0
Ty Shrader	FS				8	13.0	2.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marques Avery	DB	6'1, 186	Jr.	NR	7	11.5	1.9%	0	0	0	6	0	0
Hayden Pierce	SAM	6'3, 187	Jr.	** (5.2)	6	10.5	1.7%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Justin Allen	CB				12	5.5	0.9%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Waverly Washington	CB				4	5.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kyler Martin	DB				11	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Tyler Dickson	DB	5'11, 195	Sr.	NR	9	4.5	0.7%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Lyle Beloney	DB	5'11, 197	Sr.	** (5.1)	6	4.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lamar Johnson-Harris	CB	5'9, 173	Jr.	NR
Shaquille Tolbert	CB	5'9, 180	So.	** (5.4)
Kale Youtzy	DB	6'1, 195	Fr.	** (5.4)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Chris Boldt			34	38.1	3	10	7	50.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Eric Osteen			53	62.8	29	54.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Dan Grochowski	6'2, 205	So.	24-27	7-9	77.8%	3-7	42.9%
Eric Osteen			2-3	2-3	66.7%	1-1	100.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Julian Crockett	KR	5'8, 164	Sr.	26	19.2	0
Stephen Fraser	KR	5'10, 187	Jr.	12	20.8	0
Larry Dixon	KR	6'0, 238	Jr.	3	25.3	0
Jon Crucitti	PR	5'11, 195	Sr.	6	2.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	85
Net Punting	114
Net Kickoffs	16
Touchback Pct	13
Field Goal Pct	84
Kick Returns Avg	87
Punt Returns Avg	105

9. Eric Osteen had a cannon

Aside from Combs, Army's best defensive weapon was probably kicker Eric Osteen, who consistently forced opponents to start from the 25-yard line. He's gone, too. I'm just not sure how the defense improves this year, even though it almost literally cannot regress any further.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Morgan State	NR
7-Sep	at Ball State	84
14-Sep	Stanford	5
21-Sep	Wake Forest	85
28-Sep	vs. Louisiana Tech	89
5-Oct	at Boston College	71
12-Oct	Eastern Michigan	118
19-Oct	at Temple	66
2-Nov	at Air Force	91
9-Nov	Western Kentucky	94
30-Nov	at Hawaii	100
14-Dec	vs. Navy	95

Five-Year F/+ Rk	104
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	117
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-8 / -4.1
TO Luck/Game	-1.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	17 (9, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+5.7

10. Try, try again

Army went 6-4 in one-possession games, and 12-13 overall, in Rich Ellerson's first two seasons at West Point. In the last two seasons, thanks mostly to the collapse of the defense, the Black Knights have gone just 2-6 in one-possession games and 5-19 overall. And now its four-year starting quarterback is gone.

And the 2013 schedule isn't amazingly forgiving, with just three teams projected 100th or worse. (Granted, six others are projected no better than 84th, but Army probably isn't going to rank 84th, so it needs all the help it can get.) The run game should be fine again, but unless some position changes and newcomers to the defensive rotation -- end Ryan Alexander, corner Shaq Tolbert, linebacker Tyler McLees -- can raise the upside considerably, I don't have much hope in this team.

Two years ago, it looked like Army had turned a corner in its long battle to catch back up with Navy and simply provide sustained competence on the football field. But the Black Knights lost major ground in 2011 and 2012, and I'm not sure how they get it back.

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