SB Nation User Blog: BillMoresi

Ellis to sign multi-year deal

BillMoresi — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 15:07:38 -0000

According to ESPN, Mark Ellis has agreed to a multi year deal to re-sign with Oakland!

Mark Ellis, back in green and gold... I was personally worried about losing his defense, he is STILL underrated in my opinion.

How do YOU feel about retaining Mark Ellis to a multi year deal? Happy about this? Sad about this? What is the alternative? (I'm adding words here to make it 75! Ha)

Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3651897

Gio solid again

BillMoresi — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 04:50:09 -0000

Gonzalez tonight pitched 8 innings, allowing 2 hits & 0 runs while issuing 3 walks and striking out 9.

Can he be in our rotation already?

I'd much rather see Embree let go, Braden in the bullpen and part of our future in the rotation now for the last couple months of the season.

He now has 119 K's in 115 innings pitched this season, although he has given up 58 walks and 104 hits (1.41 WHIP).

In 10 of his last 11 starts, hes given up 3 ER or less, and in 6 of those starts hes given up 1ER or less (1x - 6ER, 2x - 3ER, 2x - 2ER, 3x - 1ER, 3x - 0ER)

Simmons continues to shine @ Midland

BillMoresi — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 05:55:49 -0000

Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Simmons (W, 4-4) 8.0 2 0 0 0 11 0 3.28

At 108 pitches, they did not put him out for the 9th, but he had excellent command, throwing 74 strikes. Similar numbers to what the DUKE did at the pro level tonight (9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K)

Our pitching in the minors continues to impress. I'm very excited about our 2009-2013 projections.

The 6 Man Rotation (& roster, post AS break)

BillMoresi — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 22:14:45 -0000

I know it's unconventional to use a six man rotation, but the A's would have a few great reasons to use one after the All Star Break:

Harden, Duchscherer are both "injury prone"
Smith, Eveland are young and approaching walls in innings pitched that often derail their productivity towards the end of the season & affect the following year (see Gaudins stellar season last year meet September)
With the thought that Blanton may be traded, our only sure starter, Gaudin would most likely step back into the rotation & would need his innings monitored like Smith & Eveland.

I would like to see Blanton traded at some point, and I think he will be. For now, I'm going to use Gaudin in the rotation, assuming Blanton is traded (if he's not, Gaudin would remain in the bullpen with Blanton assuming his spot)

My starting 6:

Rich Harden
Greg Smith
Justin Duchscherer
Dana Eveland
Chad Gaudin
Gio Gonzalez

I know Gio hasn't had the season we were hoping for at AAA, but he's only 22 years old. Eveland didn't have a stellar season at AAA last year, either, and he's been very solid at the Major League Level. Gio has high upside IMO, and has better pure pitches than both Smith/Eveland. It'd be nice to get his feet wet for the 2nd half of 2008, but I'm probably rushing him.

Our bullpen could also use a youth movement as well. Foulke / Embree should both be trade bait for prospects or outright released.

Our bullpen:

Dalls Braden (long reliever)
Andrew Brown
Joey Devine
Santiago Casilla
Brad Ziegler
Huston Street (closer)

Blevins hasn't pitched well at the major league level(albeit in limited experience), and he also hasn't been used starting recently. I would rather see Braden called up and serve as the long man. Brown / Devine / Casilla / Ziegler could make a formidable bullpen for the 7th & 8th innings.

While I like the idea of Ziegler used as a set up man, I would caution using him in the 8th inning only. Due to his amazing ability to produce ground balls, he would be VERY useful at any point late in a game where a starter/reliever is in a jam and we need a double play, or the ball kept in the infield. You need to get to the 8th inning with a lead and sometimes that is more important than Ziegler not pitching merely because it wasn't the 8th inning.

I would rather have a more fluid bullpen, where you can call on the hot hand in certain situations, over having defined rolls. It has worked VERY effectively for Tampa Bay this year.

Our non-pitching roster:

Catchers

Kurt Suzuki
Rob Bowen

Designated Hitters

Frank Thomas

Outfielders

Ryan Sweeney
Carlos Gonzalez
Travis Buck
Jack Cust
Rajai Davis

Rajai Davis should primarily be used as a pinch runner for Frank Thomas or Jack Cust, or a defensive replacement late in games.

I like the outfield of Sweeney / Gonzalez / Buck, with each of them getting an off day once a week and Cust playing. Frank could also take ocasional off days with Cust at DH. Next year, Cust could assume full time DH duties.

Infielders

Daric Barton
Mark Ellis
Bobby Crosby
Donnie Murphy
Gregorio Petit

I think Mike Sweeney should be traded/released. I like his at bat, and at this point, like him over Barton, but if Barton is the 1B of the future, he needs the at bats.

Emil Brown should be released as well; he is taking at bats away from young outfielders who need them.

I'd rather have Murphy play 3B the rest of the year than Hanahan, or fill in for third when Chavez needs days off, which at this point will be a lot.

Petit can backup for Ellis / Crosby.

Having only 5 infielders isn't conventional, either, but four of the five infielders are generally 2B/SS, who are great athletes and could transition well to 1B/3B, if needed.

Cust also needs to be utilized at 1B. He's got to be as good (and as bad) at first as he is in the outfield. I can see him playing first when Barton needs rest.

With Cust utilized in the outfield, at DH and at 1B, he can still get a lot of at bats. Cust hitting in front of Frank Thomas and getting a lot of fastballs would be a great situation.

As you can tell, I'm heavily in favor of the youth movement. I don't believe we have veterans whos value is remarkably above that of our youth where they warrant eating the innings (Brown, Sweeney, Foulke, Embree). I also don't think it would hurt our chances of catching the Angels, or making it competitive.

Blantons W/L record misleading

BillMoresi — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 07:05:19 -0000

Blanton starts:

3/25: 5.2IP, 3ER - ND
4/1: 6 IP, 2 ER - L (QS)
4/6: 6.2 IP, 2 ER - L (QS)
4/11: 7.2 IP, 5 ER - W
4/16: 8 IP, 4 ER - L
4/22: 7.2 IP, 4 ER - L
4/27: 7 IP, 2 ER - W (QS)
5/2: 7 IP, 2 ER - L (QS)
5/7: 5.2 IP, 2 ER - ND
5/14: 7 IP, 2 ER - L (QS)
5/19: 6 IP, 4 ER - ND
5/25: 6 IP, 3 ER - W (QS)
5/31: 6 IP, 6 ER - L
6/6: 7 IP, 2 ER - L (QS)
6/12: 6.2 IP, 4 ER - L
6/18: 3 IP, 8 ER - L
6/24: 7 IP, 1 ER - W (QS)
6/29: 4 IP, 7 ER - L

In starts he gives up 3 ER or less: 3-5, 2 ND
In starts he gives up 4 ER: 0-3, 1 ND
In starts he gives up 5 ER or more: 1-3

Joe Blanton has pitched 8 quality starts, garnering a 3-5 record (3 deserved wins, 5 tough losses).

Lets analyze Mike Mussina of the New York Yankees, who has arguably been their best starter this year. Mussina has also thrown 8 quality starts to the tune of a 7-1 record.

Blanton QS: 16 ER
Mussina QS: 13 ER

Joe Blanton on the New York Yankees, by my best guess, would be 6-2 in the 8 quality starts he has made.

Also, Blanton has given up exactly 4 ER 4 times this season. The Yankees are 7th in scoring this year, scoring 385 runs through 82 games, or 4.7 runs a game. Lets figure Blanton goes 2-2 when giving up 4 ERs.

Blanton has given up 5 ER, 6 ER, 7 ER and 8 ER. Lets figure he does what hes done on the A's and is 1-3 in those games.

As a New York Yankee, I guestimate Joe Blanton at 9-7, and this has been a down year for him.

Compared to the rest of their pitching staff, he'd be #3 right now behind Pettitte and Mussina and #4 with Wang back.

Nobody can tell me Joe Blanton would not make an EXCELLENT #3/#4 innings eating pitcher, and the Yankees have some prospects to give. The problem is expecting Blanton to be an ace of a staff who doesn't give run support on a consistent basis, besides the weekly outburst. The A's offense struggles against finesse lefties and righties who throw heat and command the strike zone. Blanton as an ace faces the other teams ace, which usually falls into one of those two categories.

Now I don't have the stats to back everything up, this is merely my opinion, and some other opinions gathered from choice stats and estimations.

I think GMs who undervalue Joe are sorely mistaken. He is a huge relief to the bullpen and gives you a quality start for the most part. As of late, hes been horrible, but mentally I'm sure he feels he cannot win. On a team that scores runs consistently for him, I'm sure that would do a lot for his psyche. I hope Beane waits as long as possible, a good deal HAS to be out there for this type of pitcher, especially as the trade deadline gets closer and teams bound for the playoffs or a push make a move.

Oakland needs starters who can dominate. Think Harden, not Blanton.

I'm still in love with Rich Hardens stuff, and if he can continue to throw only a fastball / changeup combination for the most part, and sticks to his word of learning to pitch more, I think the injuries MAY be behind him. I've thought this 10,000 times before, but I think there is no trade value acceptable for what he returns healthy, UNLESS somebody really overpays his current stock. Harden has been healthy as of late, and I know it's easy to believe it's only a matter of time before hes hurt again, but I for one am thoroughly enjoying his starts. The possibility of trading him for a couple of prospects and watching him dominate the playoffs / World Series for another team is too much to bear. I would personally ride Harden to the end, either he's a dominate Athletic or he rides off into the sunset.

Duchscherer BETTER not be traded, either. He has an amazing art form on the mound and its superior pitching when hes on the mound. Harden / Duchscherer back to back can really give teams extreme fits. I would love to see them 1-2 with anybody else on the rebuilding market.

Oakland's strength at the farm system is pitching. Trade pitching where we can get quality prospects, besides Rich and Justin, and give more opportunities to young pitchers, like we have Eveland and Smith. Our pitching is always a pleasant surprise, and the Colesium does nothing but help a young pitchers psyche early on.