
Billex Gordler
Jul 18, 2008 Feb 19, 2009 9 220
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Meaningless stats yield positive trend
What I am about to say here is not worthy of a diary, but it's interesting to me so I'll post it anyway:
The Royals pitchers' K/BB ratio in 2006 was 1.42, last in the majors. Last year it was 1.91, good for 20th in the majors. This spring, the Royals K/BB ratio has been 2.13, which would put them around 10th.
Spring training caveats apply, of course, as do sample size caveats, but the trend is encouraging. And in this case, the stats match my observations that the Royals pitching staff is much better at both striking guys out and preventing free bases.
The emergence of high K/BB guys like Greinke, Bale, Hochevar and Soria portends very good things for the Rs. Does McClure get most of the credit for this improvement or is it simply a matter of good pitchers maturing? Probably some combination, but it sure is encouraging.
Right now I take the Royals rotation over any AL Central team not in Cleveland. Am I crazy? FYI, I'm a believer in Bale (as a potential league average innings muncher) and think that Tomko is a very servicable fifth starter. If the Royals are on the fringes of contention in July/August, the headlines will be about Royals pitching. That's my prediction...
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Enough???
Hey folks, Billex here. So we have seen the future of Royals baseball. Is it enough?
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Who's the new closer?
Once the Royals trade Dotel, who should the Royals install as closer?
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Who is Mark Teahen? (warning, EQA and PECOTA mentioned...)
What do the Royals have with Mark Teahen? His season so far is basically nailing his 75th percentile PECOTA projection--.299 EQA vs. .304 Projected EQA. His BA and OBP are roughly in line with his 90th percentile projection and his SLG's right at his 50th percentile projection. He's striking out more than projected, but his high walk rate is keeping his K/BB ratio in line. By VORP, he's the fifth best RF in baseball, but if I was starting a team right now, I'd probably take him over three of the four guys ahead of him in VORP (Shawn Green, Magglio, Griffey). He's already an above-average fielder and could become elite with time. He runs the bases exceedingly well, takes walks, hits to all fields and has no discernible split disadvantage. So, my question: Who is Mark Teahen? How excited can we get about him? Will he develop the 30-35 HR power that elevates him to superstar status or is .500 SLG the best fans can hope for? Is he a difference-maker or a solid role player?
I have no answer, but to me, this (along with Buck's development) is the most exciting storyline of the '07 season. Is Mark Teahen a star? And if you're having trouble getting excited about the Royals, how does this '08 opening day lineup strike you?: DeJesus, Teahen, Butler, Gordon, Shealy, Buck, Costa, German, Pena. (I doubt we'll see this lineup because of the back-to-back lefties and righties, but that's ridiculous. Teahen's a perfect two hitter.
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Why we love Greinke...
Anyone check out his quote in the Star today about Daisuke?
"After watching him, I thought he'd be more interesting to watch on TV. Just because you can't really tell what's going on from the stands. He works so slow it's kind of boring. On TV, you could really tell how well he actually pitched, when you get to watch the movement of the pitches and how well he located them."
He's a riot. He actually called Matsuzaka out for being so slow that he's boring! Love it.
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Lubanski on BP
BP's love affair with future R's continues. Check out this analysis of Chris Lubanski's career by prospect guru Kevin Goldstein. The jury's still out on what he'll be (and I suspect that we won't know what he's going to be for at least three years or so) but there are some very hopeful signs.
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More Royals on BP
Hey All-
Joe Sheehan put together a nice little analysis of the Royals under Dayton Moore today over at BP. It's more retrospective than prospective--more about why the Royals are better now than they were four months ago and less about what it all means for next year--but it's still a pretty good read. And let's face it, we all love to read about Royals successes, no matter how meager.
Interesting tidbit is that the Royals have basically played even with the Tigers since July 15. That team (the Tigers) is looking more and more like the '03 Royals, except their season's being driven by potentially great pitchers having very good seasons while the R's '03 was driven more by great and clutch hitting and a flukey four months of Lima-Time.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5527
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Hochevar on BP
It must be Royals week over at Baseball Prospectus. They've posted a feature article on a Royal for the second day in a row. This one's about Luke Hochevar. There's not a whole lot of new material here, other than some predictibly fawning quotes from Daric Ladnier about Hochevar's talent and makeup, but it's still an interesting read. I would have liked the article to be more scout-y with projections and stuff--forget it, I'm just nitpicking. Enjoy!
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5478
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Mark Teahen on BP
Here's a great analysis from Baseball Prospectus of Teahen's breakout season and what it means for his future.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5476
The conclusion is a happy one. Historically, guys like MT have held on to power gains similar to the gains he's made this year. That is, even though it's a relatively small sample size (300+ ABs and counting...) it looks as if his power spike is no fluke.
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