SB Nation User Blog: Billex Gordler

Meaningless stats yield positive trend

Billex Gordler — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 03:07:10 -0000

What I am about to say here is not worthy of a diary, but it's interesting to me so I'll post it anyway:

The Royals pitchers' K/BB ratio in 2006 was 1.42, last in the majors. Last year it was 1.91, good for 20th in the majors. This spring, the Royals K/BB ratio has been 2.13, which would put them around 10th.

Spring training caveats apply, of course, as do sample size caveats, but the trend is encouraging. And in this case, the stats match my observations that the Royals pitching staff is much better at both striking guys out and preventing free bases.

The emergence of high K/BB guys like Greinke, Bale, Hochevar and Soria portends very good things for the Rs. Does McClure get most of the credit for this improvement or is it simply a matter of good pitchers maturing? Probably some combination, but it sure is encouraging.

Right now I take the Royals rotation over any AL Central team not in Cleveland. Am I crazy? FYI, I'm a believer in Bale (as a potential league average innings muncher) and think that Tomko is a very servicable fifth starter. If the Royals are on the fringes of contention in July/August, the headlines will be about Royals pitching. That's my prediction...

Enough???

Billex Gordler — Tue, 04 Sep 2007 06:39:49 -0000

Hey folks, Billex here. So we have seen the future of Royals baseball. Is it enough?

The core of the current Royals team is likely the core of any success or failure the Royals will have during the next 3-5 years. There are no ML-ready prospects on the farm. Anyone who projects to be a good or better ML player is in KC. The question is: Is it enough? Can the Royals count on improvement from their young players to challenge for a playoff spot in the coming years?

There's certainly reason for optimism. Barring injury, Gordon and Butler should be heart of the order threats for a long time. Teahen could be a great #2 hitter. DeJesus is a very good #1 guy. When he gets on base, he scores, and the Royals win. After that? Not so much. Gathright, who knows? Pena? Well, the Twins have won with poor hitting, strong fielding MIs for years. I love Grudz, and if he keeps doing what he's doing for the next three years, then he's certainly part of a solution rather than a problem. As someone pointed out, even with a poor BA, Buck is an above-average catcher based simply on his power. First base is certainly a question mark. Shealy? Gload? Huber? Someone else? What's important to remember is that barring some shocking development from a minor league bat or two, there is not an impact bat in the system until you get down to a certain 18-year old in Idaho. Also, teams don't trade impact bat-type prospects for the types of middling veterans that the Royals have--Sanders, Brown, Gload, et al. So what you see is what you get. Lubanski's the type of guy who could be something. Maier's VERY fringey. I'm not holding my breath on Stodolka. The point: This is it.

Here's the thing, offensively: The Royals need Butler and Gordon to be stars. If they turn into anything less than that, this offense will never be better than average. If they become stars, this can be a very good, top-5 type offense.

Pitching

I suppose that most Royals fans feel better about the club's pitching than they do about the hitting. It makes sense. Meche has been EXACTLY as expected. He's probably not an ace, but I'd take him as a #2 starter on virtually any rotation in baseball (Padres, BoSox maybe Yanks excepted). We may be witnessing Brian Bannister's best season, but going forward you could do much worse with him as a #3. He makes his starts, keeps his team in the game, pitches deep. He's a very solid pro. The rest of the rotation is a toss-up. (Disclaimer: I own two jerseys. A vintage '80 powder blue #5 and Zack Greinke's #23...) Intelligent Royals fans can NOT expect both Greinke and Soria to be aces. Maybe one of them will be. Maybe they'll both only be decent. Maybe neither of them will ever win 15 games with a sub-4.00 ERA. Young pitchers are nearly impossible to project with confidence. Best case scenario is that two of Greinke, Soria, Hochevar and Buckner become above-average ML starters and that the other two become bullpen weapons. I'm positing this as best case not because I'm down on any of those guys in particular but because that's how it is with prospects. Not one of those guys has ever been rated as highly as Andrew Miller of Detroit, or Philip Hughes in NY, or Homer Bailey in Cincinnati (with the possible exception of Greinke in 2003) and so to hope for any of those four to become a star is just that, hope. Not that it couldn't happen, of course, just that it's not likely. So Meche will be here for four more years. Bannister, Greinke, Soria, Hochevar, De la Rosa, Hudson and Buckner are Royals property until 2011 at least (I believe??). Injuries are always an issue with young arms, but this is the core pitching staff for the Royals going forward. The Royals may pay for another mid-rotation guy in free agency, which makes eight options for the four spots. That seems to me like enough.

I'm not going to consider the bullpen here, because it's something that can be built on a season to season basis. Good teams build good bullpens with average guys. Guys like Riske, Gobble, Peralta, etc. Maybe Hochevar becomes a closer. Maybe Soria's cutter makes him the Rivera of the '10s. Who knows? I have faith that Moore can build and rebuild the bullpen every year just as his old boss in Atlanta does every year.

To conclude:

I guess this is just a long, multi-part question to the RR readers. First, do you agree with me that the Royals we've been watching this year are the Royals of the future? Second, given expected progression, is it enough?

My opinion is that it's a definite maybe. Here's one cautiously optimistic scenario: Gordon and Butler become stars. Like consistent 300/400/500 types with one of them setting a new Royals single-season HR record and the other coming close. Buck and Teahen hit 20 HRs. Gathright steals 40 bases with a .350+ OBP. DeJesus gets on enough to lead the league in Runs scored. Greinke becomes what we've all seen he can be, a 3.50 ERA over 200 IP with a 4/1 K/BB ratio. Soria becomes a top-tier closer. Bannister settles in as a solid mid-rotation guy. Meche photocopies his '07 peripherals for the life of his contract. Two of Hochevar, Buckner, Hudson, De la Rosa and some FA PTBNL fill out the rotation league-averagely. That team challenges for a playoff spot and can make noise in a short series. That team wouldn't be favored to win a WS, but it could.

Finally, I just want to echo some other folks's comments that this season has been a blast to watch. Enjoy it while it lasts, y'all, because pretty soon we're not going to be happy with a sub-.500 record. I can't wait.

Who's the new closer?

Billex Gordler — Tue, 31 Jul 2007 16:56:29 -0000

Once the Royals trade Dotel, who should the Royals install as closer?

To me it's obvious, but I suspect there are varied opinions on this one. I say Greinke.

My rationale: He wants to be in the bullpen. He likes it. He has the stuff. The other obvious choice is Soria, but he sees himself as a starter and my guess is that he'll be competing for that role next year in spring training. So for the balance of the year, you may as well give it to Greinke and see how he does, see if it's a long-term solution. If he thrives then we know what he is and he knows what he is and we can forget about our closer for the next five years. If they go with Soria, that means that both Soria and Greinke are changing roles mid-season (i'd guess that Greinke would inherit Soria's set-up role) and the closer is a question mark this off season.

I know that conventional wisdom is that starting pitchers are more valuable than closers, but as Papelbon has shown, sometimes it makes sense to turn a potential stud starter into a stud closer, and if you're able to satisfy a guy with an historically fragile psyche, all the better.

Greinke's the guy.

Who is Mark Teahen? (warning, EQA and PECOTA mentioned...)

Billex Gordler — Tue, 22 May 2007 18:13:06 -0000

What do the Royals have with Mark Teahen? His season so far is basically nailing his 75th percentile PECOTA projection--.299 EQA vs. .304 Projected EQA. His BA and OBP are roughly in line with his 90th percentile projection and his SLG's right at his 50th percentile projection. He's striking out more than projected, but his high walk rate is keeping his K/BB ratio in line. By VORP, he's the fifth best RF in baseball, but if I was starting a team right now, I'd probably take him over three of the four guys ahead of him in VORP (Shawn Green, Magglio, Griffey). He's already an above-average fielder and could become elite with time. He runs the bases exceedingly well, takes walks, hits to all fields and has no discernible split disadvantage. So, my question: Who is Mark Teahen? How excited can we get about him? Will he develop the 30-35 HR power that elevates him to superstar status or is .500 SLG the best fans can hope for? Is he a difference-maker or a solid role player?

I have no answer, but to me, this (along with Buck's development) is the most exciting storyline of the '07 season. Is Mark Teahen a star? And if you're having trouble getting excited about the Royals, how does this '08 opening day lineup strike you?: DeJesus, Teahen, Butler, Gordon, Shealy, Buck, Costa, German, Pena. (I doubt we'll see this lineup because of the back-to-back lefties and righties, but that's ridiculous. Teahen's a perfect two hitter.

Why we love Greinke...

Billex Gordler — Fri, 06 Apr 2007 13:45:36 -0000

Anyone check out his quote in the Star today about Daisuke?

"After watching him, I thought he'd be more interesting to watch on TV. Just because you can't really tell what's going on from the stands. He works so slow it's kind of boring. On TV, you could really tell how well he actually pitched, when you get to watch the movement of the pitches and how well he located them."

He's a riot. He actually called Matsuzaka out for being so slow that he's boring! Love it.

Lubanski on BP

Billex Gordler — Thu, 21 Sep 2006 14:47:08 -0000

BP's love affair with future R's continues. Check out this analysis of Chris Lubanski's career by prospect guru Kevin Goldstein. The jury's still out on what he'll be (and I suspect that we won't know what he's going to be for at least three years or so) but there are some very hopeful signs.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5544&PHPSESSID=2996549d0ece5cec2cb72dce5 222b2b3

More Royals on BP

Billex Gordler — Fri, 15 Sep 2006 20:41:29 -0000

Hey All-
Joe Sheehan put together a nice little analysis of the Royals under Dayton Moore today over at BP. It's more retrospective than prospective--more about why the Royals are better now than they were four months ago and less about what it all means for next year--but it's still a pretty good read. And let's face it, we all love to read about Royals successes, no matter how meager.

Interesting tidbit is that the Royals have basically played even with the Tigers since July 15. That team (the Tigers) is looking more and more like the '03 Royals, except their season's being driven by potentially great pitchers having very good seasons while the R's '03 was driven more by great and clutch hitting and a flukey four months of Lima-Time.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5527

Hochevar on BP

Billex Gordler — Fri, 01 Sep 2006 17:13:14 -0000

It must be Royals week over at Baseball Prospectus. They've posted a feature article on a Royal for the second day in a row. This one's about Luke Hochevar. There's not a whole lot of new material here, other than some predictibly fawning quotes from Daric Ladnier about Hochevar's talent and makeup, but it's still an interesting read. I would have liked the article to be more scout-y with projections and stuff--forget it, I'm just nitpicking. Enjoy!

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5478

Mark Teahen on BP

Billex Gordler — Thu, 31 Aug 2006 16:46:57 -0000

Here's a great analysis from Baseball Prospectus of Teahen's breakout season and what it means for his future.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5476

The conclusion is a happy one. Historically, guys like MT have held on to power gains similar to the gains he's made this year. That is, even though it's a relatively small sample size (300+ ABs and counting...) it looks as if his power spike is no fluke.