Celtics Offseason Plans Will Play a Part Going Forward

Enough has been made of the team’s current state of development, roster make up, and the decisions that have been made in the past. None of that is relevant to this article. The purpose of this piece is to talk about the actions the current Celtics need to execute in order to take their own games up another level and solidify themselves as a unit going forward.

Most of the projected rotation players have been covered exhaustively as well. The impending draft throws these discussions into fits of combinations that are theoretically based at best at this point. Leaving Wally, Pierce, and Jefferson out of these discussions as well as talks of potential draft picks, let’s change gears a bit.

Focusing on the players that are truly locked into Personal improvement battles seems to be the one sure way to understand what this team can accomplish internally going forward. Note that Ryan Gomes isn’t amongst the players being analyzed below, but not because he isn’t a developing player coming into a pivotal offseason. Gomes is in this group of players, but was accosted by the media after the season finale and couldn’t speak to the specific points brought up in this piece.

{tab=Doc Rivers}

Listen to the interview with Doc Rivers

{mp3remote}http://celticsstufflive.com/PrePostGame/DocRiversInterview4.18.07.mp3{/mp3remote}

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Training Grounds:

Gomes did however take the time to chat during the Sixer’s game and explained he’ll be spear-heading a team movement out to Vegas in order to workout at Impactbball with noted trainer Joe Abunassar, the former IMG Academy basketball guru who helped Gomes and many other prospects round into championship form. Tony Allen and Rajon Rondo are coming along to work on some things and Allan Ray may join them. Other Celtics, such as team captain Paul Pierce and rookie Leon Powe might find their way out there as both spend the offseason in relative proximity to the facilities.

Abunassar’s programs are very progressive, heavily leveraging the expertise of Athletes Performance, an Arizona based firm that has won renown for its performance training work with NFL athletes. The program focuses on different areas, such as carefully constructed diet plans, muscle strength and coordination measurement, flexibility, and strength and conditioning. All of this is of course centered around the skills training work that Abunassar does himself. All the facilities and team members work together to implement the most effective strategy for accomplishing player and team goals with precise, measurable outcomes.

The quality of the daily scrimmage at this facility is top-notch, as many players come in and out of the city all summer to get some high level games and tweak their workout regiments. Top prospects will also be out there including Yi Jianlian and Rudy Fernandez. So, the level of competition and degree of preparation each of the attending Celtics will get should help them improve leaps and bounds over where they left off this season.

{tab=Allan Ray}

Listen To The Interview With Allan Ray

{mp3remote}http://celticsstufflive.com/PrePostGame/AllanRayInterview4.18.07.mp3{/mp3remote}

{tab=Leon Powe}

Listen To The Interview With Leon Powe

{mp3remote}http://celticsstufflive.com/PrePostGame/LeonPoweInterview4.18.07.mp3{/mp3remote}

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Listen To The Interview With Rajon Rondo

{mp3remote}http://celticsstufflive.com/PrePostGame/RajonRondoInterview4.18.07.mp3{/mp3remote}

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Deep in the Heart of Texas:

Though Gerald Green may be the most tradable commodity on the Celtics squad, he’s been vastly over-criticized for the season he just put in. Green was a 3-5 year project when he was drafted, which is one of the principle reasons he slipped as far as he did. Injuries forced Green into a role he was never intended to play this season, yet he responded with a 10 point scoring average and a number of big time games that speak strongly to his potential.

The fluctuations in performance were to be expected from a player that had absolutely no idea how to play organized ball coming into the league. Reading the game and applying his skill set to it is going to take much longer at the wing than it did for Jefferson in the post. Those expecting big things from Green in year two were warned of the odds against during Green’s inaugural Summer League campaign. Despite the overwhelming statistics against 2nd year players becoming competent starters, (less than 25%) too much put on his shoulders this season-one would think astute Celtics fans would know.

But Green made substantial progress between year one and year two. Much of this, if not all, was due to the boot-camp style training that Green received in Houston working with John Lucas. The raspy voice of Lucas and the will of Green to succeed proved to be an excellent pairing as both Green and Lucas have decided to renew their relationship this offseason. While last offseason was solely focused on skill development, strength, and conditioning; a good portion of this offseason should be dedicated to film study.

{tab=Gerald Green}

Listen To The Interview With Gerald Green:

{mp3remote}http://celticsstufflive.com/PrePostGame/GeraldGreenInterview4.18.07.mp3{/mp3remote}

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Meanwhile at the Bat Cave:

While the other young Celtics are off doing their work abroad, the close-knit crew of Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Kendrick Perkins are planning on putting their work in at Healthpoint. Most of the rest of their teammates are expected to head back to the bay state by mid-August to join the trio. It has been a Celtic team custom for most everyone on the roster to be together for a good month or more before training camp, a huge advantage in terms of team chemistry.

Jefferson and Perkins will be focusing on further skill development with coach Clifford Ray, and Perk has stated his goal of losing 30 pounds in order to increase his versatility and alleviate the burden on his sore foot. Perk missed out on a larger portion of last offseason in terms of skill development as his injured shoulder prevented him from participating in true basketball activity until late August. Expect Perk to fight tooth and nail for his starting spot if/when either Oden or Durant come walking into the practice facility. Those expecting either one of the teenagers to take the starting gig may be surprised with what they see from Perkins next season.

West has just begun to recognize how his offensive explosiveness mixes with his multi-positional responsibility. West will continue to work on the areas he is weakest at while harnessing his skill with a constant review of his own performance with a mind toward improvement. Look for West to be the big breakout performer next season with a consistent role for the first time in his career.

{tab=Delonte West}

Listen To The Interview With Delonte West

{mp3remote}http://celticsstufflive.com/PrePostGame/DelonteWestInterview4.18.07.mp3{/mp3remote}

{tab=Kendrick Perkins}

Listen To The Interview With Kendrick Perkins

{mp3remote}http://celticsstufflive.com/PrePostGame/KendrickPerkinsInterview4.18.07.mp3{/mp3remote}

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As the NBA season comes to a close, there has been a disturbing tenor running rampant on the message boards concerning the team’s “need” for one of the top 2 picks. While the prospect of adding Greg Oden or Kevin Durant is truly ideal, there is life after those selections.

I’ve posted two articles attempting to explain the potential buyers market this NBA offseason is going to be, especially for a team holding a high pick in this lucrative draft. Not getting one of the first two picks certainly will cost the Celtics more of their existent talent, but a quality return can be had without liquidating its primary youthful asset, Al Jefferson.

A complementary frontcourt All Star for Jefferson to play with and develop alongside of is an obvious boon, as teams with two frontcourt studs are rare and always successful. {styleboxjp width=300px,float=right,color=black,textcolor=white,echo=yes}But the premise that this team cannot acquire a high-level frontcourt talent without relinquishing Jefferson is false. If may be difficult or improbable, but not impossible.{/styleboxjp}

The Hickman and Gilroy show this evening lambasted all Celtics fans that believe in a positive alternative to the Oden/Durant sweepstakes. They stated in particular that there was zero possibility of acquiring Paul Gasol without trading Jefferson, sighting that Memphis would “demand it.” The logic is that the Celtics actually don’t have any valuable trade commodities beyond Jefferson, Rondo, and the pick.

MY contention is that the pick in and of itself is a substantial chip in this offseason market, and that trades depend much more on the circumstances surrounding the teams looking to consummate a major deal. There are innumerable permutations and out-of-site issues that prevent many deals from coming down, but a laymen’s starting point for understanding what may happen this offseason begins and ends with knowing the basic principles surrounding the NBA trade market.

The following is just a simple breakdown of the potential contenders for Pau Gasol based on nothing more than the assets and team scenarios that would be necessary to satisfy all parties involved: Memphis, Gasol, and Gasol’s prospective team…

1. What teams have the mix of expiring money and prospects to consummate a deal with the Grizz. (Its known league-wide that the Grizz will look to move money and build through cheap, exciting talent.)

2. Out of those teams, which are franchises that currently have another superstar or a legit chance of becoming better to the point of satisfying Gasol's desires? (Like it or not, superstar players do have an influence in the trade process because the receiving team needs assurances they're not getting a malcontent.)

3. Additionally, which teams are in a position to acquire a Gasol-level player as the logical move for team building going forward? (IE, teams aren't going to trade Gasol for Pierce, KG for Jason Kidd, etc...its going to be prospects and expiring deals for rebuilding in exchange for big time vet helping new team take next step.)

If you factor in these 3 points, the market for these players shrinks from 30 teams to about 6 to 8. I won’t count Toronto in this equation because of the infeasibility of trading Bargnani a year after obtaining him and the lack of high-end youth on their roster. Out of the “contending” teams:

The Bulls, Hawks, and Bobcats don't have the contracts to match in order to acquire, and only the Bulls would be an attractive landing place from Pau's perspective.

Portland has the contracts and the young talent, but would be a hard-sell for Pau, could be a contender though.

The Lakers have Andrew Bynum, which is their biggest chip, and they've got expiring deals, so they could certainly be in play.

Seattle has some interesting talent, a pick, and some contracts, but is in utter disarray. They're not attractive to Pau, have ownership issues, and are searching for a new stadium.

Phoenix could be a dark horse if they are hell-bent on switching it up and having more of a traditional center who can run. They've got three draft picks and could trade one of their core guys. Phoenix has sworn they're not taking on more money and wouldn't with a Marion/Pau swap for example, but there have been rumblings from Suns ownership about cutting cost via leveraging their picks to justify a glorified dump of Marion-hence the Noah and Durant rumors...

Boston has Pierce as a lure for Gasol. Keeping Jefferson out of the equation the team has a 3-5 pick as an asset, Gerald Green, Rajon Rondo, Delonte West. Plus the team's own pick in ‘09 and/or Minny's future pick. Not the top possible offer, but certainly in contention with the other two most viable options.

People may not want to hear names like Rondo or Green in that equation, but it’s the reality of making a play for a major player of Gasol’s stature. Its not a LIKELY scenario, but its feasible from a talent perspective.

One has to remember that Memphis has its own pick, top 4 and is looking to rebuild via cheap talent that will draw fan interest. The Celtics pick would give the Memphis team two picks in the top 5 of possibly the deepest draft in NBA history-this has value for a franchise that would be looking at 4 cheap years out of two elite talents. Memphis has Gay/Warrick/M. Miller, so they're looking for a C/PF/PG with SG being a viable option as one of Miller/Gay/Warrick would come off the bench, none are ideal 2-guards.

A Boston deal can give Memphis 3 of those 4 needs while Memphis' own pick fills the 4th need. It covers the cost angle and the excitement angle as well. Phoenix deal is probably the best option for both Pau and Memphis, with the Suns having 3 first round picks to play with as well. But, Phoenix is perhaps the least likely to make this type of move, so they are predicated on participation.

The Lakers are looking for another big time piece, and have the Bynum chip. I'd think they're the market leader for any big based off of the parameters stipulated above.

The good news is, these parameters apply to the market for KG and JO as much as they do for Gasol. Additionally, Chauncey Billups, Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby, Gerald Wallace, Vince Carter, Ray Allen, and Rashard Lewis are lurking in the weeds. There are only so many teams that have the assets to acquire these players...with that being considered, the probability of the Celtics landing a player of some stature is very high.

It should be noted that the team could ultimately decide that retaining the player available with the draft pick IS the best alternative to trading away any of the team’s most valuable core youth. Ainge has enjoyed a sport rarity in having the support of ownership in regards to long-term thinking. The Celtics as currently constructed are not a common occurrence, more so because of the market that’s allowed this process to transpire. Ainge gets knocked around a lot for trying to rebuild while remaining competitive, but that very well may have been the only way to get an impatient fan base to buy into the “youth movement” long enough to actually pull it off.

The purpose of this piece is another attempt to mitigate the “suicide factor” I can just see brewing with the possibility of May 22nd not working out as well as we’d all like. There is life after Oden and Durant, though they are the ideal. The team is going to play the market and make the move that fits their interests best. What those interests are is beyond our knowledge and must account for the less glamorous details of the industry.

I really liked the illustrations in RedsArmy's attempt to rectify Rondo's shooting woes, it was a novel concept for an article to be sure. There are a couple of things wrong with the analysis that I thought the readers may want to know about (maybe not, who knows)...

First, pronating your wrist is not a bad thing for a shooter. The more you can flatten your wrist the more arc you will get on your shot. Dirk Nowitski is the primary example of this as his wrist is almost completely flat when he shoots. This isn't Rondo's problem as is should really help him to elevate the ball.

Rondo certainly leaves it in his palm too much, but even this doesn't have to be a big concern as long as he funnels the ball up onto his fingertips during the follow-through. Many good shooters don't get the palm separation until they are into the shooting motion with their hand.

The areas where Rondo does do things that are particularly destructive to his shot consistency are:

• Body position (shoulders and hips)
• Arm position
• Release angle
• Shooting motion

The first major flaw is with his body. Rondo turns away from the basket at a funny angle. Some good shooters do this, but it's best to have shoulders square to the basket and hips in alignment. This ensures consistently jumping straight up and down and not drifting on the shot. Turning your body away from the shot also promotes many of the release angle problems that Rondo has with his shot.

In terms of arm position, Rondo shoots away from his body with his elbow flailing out on almost every one of his shots. This causes huge fluctuations in left/right action on the ball. Again, there are good shooters who do this, but it is much more conducive to success to have the elbow tucked and square with shoulders and hips.

Rondo's release angle is his most egregious problem. Rondo shoots from the side of his head with his arm cocked like a catapult against his right ear. This creates a motion of "throwing' the ball instead of shooting it with a predominantly wrist-driven motion.

The way Rondo holds his release causes a ton of forward/backward inconsistency with his shot trajectory. There have been many players who have been good shooters without having Larry Bird's "arm fully extended" motion, but the key is limiting the extra motion and isolating the wrist as the principle generator of the release.

This brings us to the final element inherently flawed with Rondo's release. Rondo fully extends his entire arm from the shoulder all the way up through his release and follow-through on most of his shots. When you combine that with all the rest of the shooting flaws he has, you're talking about a shot that's drifting left/right, forward/back and getting sides spin on a good many of the attempts. This is why he has what has to be considered one of the most fundamentally poor shots from a point guard that I've ever seen. He's closer to Olden Polynice or Bo Outlaw than anyone should be comfortable with.

{styleboxjp width=200px,float=right,color=black,textcolor=white,echo=yes}To his credit, Rondo does work on his shot before every game{/styleboxjp} and the coaches have him eliminating much of the wasted arm motion, so though he still shoots next to his head, he is flicking the ball exclusively with his wrist in these sessions. Think about Shawn Marion, who shoots at chin level but still uses mostly wrist to release the ball. The less the entire arm moves the more consistent the shot will become.

{styleboxjp width=150px,float=left,color=grey,textcolor=black,echo=yes}It is typically best for a shooter to maintain as much of his natural motion as possible in order to keep the shot comfortable and familiar{/styleboxjp}. Based off of the fundamental errors in Rondo's delivery, I'd say it would be best to work on isolating the arm extension problems and continue to have Rondo work on using his excellent wrist pronation to get the arc on his shot. Eliminating that "catapult" motion would do more for his shot consistency than anything else while allowing him to continue to shoot from the position he feels most comfortable with, that being releasing from the side of his head with his arm cocked severely.

The process of ironing out Rondo's jump shot is not a simple matter though, as the above illustrates. All Celtics fans would love for Rondo to be the complete package and establish himself as the point guard of the future, but there is a reason that a player with his tremendous skill set fell so far in many scouts eyes.

Rondo has every other tangible and intangible facet to his game that one could ask for from the point guard position, but this element of his game sticks out like a sore thumb and is a principle part of a point guard's responsibility. 29 percent on jumpers isn't "poor" it's a major problem. This isn't easily rectified, but it's on Rondo's radar and he's got the work ethic to get through this problem and become the player everyone would like him to become. But this will be a process, not something that that Celtics fans should consider a matter of due course.

The Merits and detractions of Rajon Rondo's game going forward

{styleboxjp width=200px,float=right,color=black,textcolor=white,echo=yes} Rajon Rondo has been such a revelation for this franchise during an otherwise painful season{/styleboxjp}. His ability to consistently produce the spectacular has made him a fan favorite of many and given Celtics fans hope for the future. Anyone that's listened to Celticsstufflive or read the Celticsblog message board for fifteen minutes is aware of "MikeDfromNP" and his bandwagon leading charge in Rondo's behalf…not a bad seat to be in most would agree.

In the interest and quality of Mike's recent post, I thought it would serve as an excellent staging ground for a true analysis of where Rajon is as a player and where he needs to get to in order to truly be what we want to see him become.

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Things to think on entering this offseason

Long-Term thinking for this Celtics team while maintaining a short-term dividend has been the gist of every message board poster for this team. The draft has been the major focus, direction has come into question, and the draft has been debated and will continue to grow in fervor. Some People are still debating whether or not trading Paul Pierce is the smart long-term decision, incidentally coinciding with Pierces return, which has sprung everyone else game even while his is rusty.

It seems that the argument for all Celtics fans is about time lines. It’s clear that the team has some talent, but its not clear how great that talent may be. There are the factors of Pierce’s age to weigh against the youth’s potential for certain, but he’s proven to be such a difference maker for ALL the player on the team. Even though Pierce may be turning 30, his contract value shouldn’t exceed his production value for quite some time, and that has to factor into people’s thinking when assessing how the organization is going to analyze there own short â€"term/long-term projections.

Consider Pierce's playing value on his NEXT contract. Think about a 34 year old Pierce re-upping for about 7 million a year while sliding into the backseat of the Jefferson/Green run Celtics. He is still going to be a productive player, say 17 pts, 7brds 4asts...his passing and other secondary skills will be more valuable and he'll harness them as his scoring load is reduced and ability to play on-ball diminished. Pierce is capable of playing off of others for much longer than he’s capable of being the focal point, and that should extend out his worth substantially as a team leader and contributor.

I'd say building with Pierce as the Celtics’ 3rd best player is about 5 years and that doesn't count the draft pick of this year or its requisite trade value...Pierce as 4th best player? 6 or 7 years is not hard to imagine. Guys are playing longer and the best players who approach the game with equal aggression each and every year become the longest standing players. Pierce can play quality ball until he's 37-38 years old by posting, going to the line with up fakes, and simply crashing the glass and making plays OFF of others...

The only question in my mind is what does the team do if the pick is outside the top 2? Trading for one of KG, JO, and Pau is feasible with our loose contracts and the draft pick. But, does the team want to part with major prospects? Obviously Jefferson is not in play, but the pick, Gerald Green and Rajon Rondo probably look enticing to a few, as do Gomes and West. It could take 3 of those players to land KG or JO-Bird wont let Danny have him cheap-Pau is feasible with less, say West and Green plus the pick and I can't say that's worth it considering the pick plus Jefferson and Green is probably better than Jefferson plus Pau in the near future...

Any trade that happens is going to be dependant on the draft pick the team holds. A selection of Oden or Durant allows the team to make a lesser trade to acquire a quality vet. There are so many past All Stars on the market this year it'll be a buyers market for some of these guys, especially for the hold outs. Who think they’ll get a desperate offer for their player and end up taking less.

Pau could easily stay in Memphis, with Chauncey’s talk of joining up and the sure-fire prospect of adding a top 2 pick themselves could easily give Jerry West the ammo he needs to keep Pau content as well. But, his availability will stall negotiations with other teams around the league who will be burning up the wires from April onward trying to get a battle plan ready full of contingencies. With only 8-12 teams even having an arguable compensation package for the top vets available, the more surfing is done the more chance a team gets left short-selling.

Getting Oden/Durant gives the team options that don't include one of Rondo/Green which makes things much nicer from a fans perspective. Jason Kidd's as good as in LA, but Bibby should be at the bottom of the totem pole for trade acquisitions, amazing when you consider his past performance and the situations surrounding this season for the Kings. There are some outlying point guards who may be available, but don’t expect Chauncey Billups name to come around Boston, so picking up an “impact” player here isn’t tremendous. Teams will treat it like that, Billups will be courted heavily, but Kidd is a niche fit now, at 34 he’s looking to go to a team that’s in a position to win now.

Having to trade for a vet without getting Oden/Durant makes the urgency to consider a mega-trade for KG/JO/Pau more probable. The team has been scouting bigs in this draft intently, as has every other team smart enough to know that a tandem front court of skill and size puts most any team above two-thirds of the rest. It can be an end-game move toward establishing cornerstones for the long-hall.

But, the vet bigs have the same type of thing going for them that Pierce does in terms of there ability to age gracefully and contribute deeper into there careers then just there prime. Pau is young at 26, so swan songs aren't in order there. But KG is 31 going into next season and I still expect him to be rebounding, defending, and passing the ball well past his 35th birthday.

JO will shotblock and hit jumpers for any team he plays for until he hangs 'em up. Less wear, less injuries when on a team with 2 other stars. This is what you get from potential HoF players. You see it all the time. The best find a way to contribute...and 20 million dollar salaries go away before the skills do. Re-signing players like this to 3 year extentions to enjoy those Shaq and Reggie days is always a good thing.

Keeping Pierce should be a clear no-brainer. But pleasing Pierce and settling on a decision will be the toughest task of this offseason.

I assure you that some decision will be made and all the options point to a brighter future going forward through this off season and into the next. Even if you don't understand the NBA Trade Market very well the shear number of quality vets available and the relative paucity of teams that have the available resources to trade for them should be enough to recognize the Celtics position.

With the recent report by David Aldridge coming out that Pierce may request a trade in the offseason, it may be relevant to review the facts available as we know them and provide some insight into how the process of NBA business works when it comes to utilizing the media to spread information.

Let me see if I can shed a bit more light onto this information flow...

• Pierce had publically stated his desire for veteran help and his sense of his own NBA Mortality...
• Management has stated its goal of building around Pierce by trading assets...
  
• Ainge has recently re-iterated his statements about Pierce as well as his intentions and enthusiasm for going into this offseason under the same auspices as last year.
  
• Pierce's agent has stipulated that the team has to do something substantial and that Pierce is actively looking to be a part of something greater going into this offseason and would essentially be open to moving if it wasn't in Boston.
  
• Rumors have circulated about the team gauging Pierce's value on the market as well as this new rumor of Pierce possibly requesting a trade this offseason...
  
• The market will be flooded with top talent this offseason making high-end talent availability great as well as depressing the market for acquisition due to volume of players available and teams that have the assets and environment to accommodate these trades.

Without something more substantial from Aldridge, I'm figuring this is a logical assumption by Aldridge supplemented possibly by some back channel info from Pierce's camp in order to stimulate some public buzz and effect some action from management's side.

Seeing how Pierce has gone through this for four season's now, and just last season re-signed for max money, my guess is that he'll give the club a full offseason to work the market and then will look to be moved before the trade deadline if he's not satisfied with the team's progress.

It's highly unlikely that Pierce is going to ask out a year after being convinced of Ainge's strategy. That understanding isn't open-ended, but Pierce is aware of the team's assets and also knows that this offseason will have plenty of activity.

Considering the volume of potentially available players that fit the criteria for the type of "star" player Ainge was looking to acquire last summer when Pierce agreed to stay on, it seems that Pierce would most likely understand that this is offseason there is a better opportunity for exactly what he wanted going into this year.

There has been some speculation into how the league values the Celtics current assets. Despite the poor record overall, most scouts recognize the personal growth of the individual talents on this team. They are paid to measure ability and execution, not judge based off of Win/Loss records. While the mistakes latent in these young players are certainly a metric in determining player value, the focus for scouts watching players with the experience level of the young Celtics prospects is mainly on physical execution on a play-by-play basis. They are charting efficiencies and success in a minute environment to calculate ability and potential.

It is widely accepted around league circles that the Celtics have some valuable youth, but the specific value has differed from Ainge’s personal valuation. But the increase in player valuation for the young Celtics and the depression of the trade market this offseason should go a long way toward bolstering the Celtics position for making deals going forward.

Ownership and management have been very communicative with Pierce in the past and they are clearly aware of their position going into this offseason, so I’d expect Pierce to be a part of this process going forward, not sitting around and forcing ultimatums without analyzing his options.

Pierce did as much two season’s ago when he first had thoughts of leaving after the Indiana Pacers series. The market for Pierce himself isn’t going to be as expansive as it may have been in prior years because of his contract, his recent injury, and the availability of other options on the market.

Quality organizations typically share this type of transparency with their focal point players when moves of significance are in play. That’s why the Kevin Garnett’s, Jermain O’neal’s, and Jason Kidd’s enjoy the ability to dialogue with their employers and figure out solutions to their needs collaboratively.

Not all organizations handle these in-house issues like this. The recent examples of Vince Carter and Baron Davis are proof of what can go wrong without this transparency and communication, but the Celtics have displayed that they follow in the former category rather than the latter.

Like any diligent business, the organization has surely gamed out scenarios for what happens if they cannot come to an equitable agreement with any of the other teams offering their players. This is probably where the rumors of Pierce being shopped stemmed from. Gauging market value is a necessary part of contingency planning.

But based off of the various streams of information we have at our disposal and considering the leverage and circumstances surrounding the principles involved in the situation, its probable that the team has the ability to control Pierce’s satisfaction with the situation predicated on the way they approach this offseason.

Reactionary panic is normal, but hardly substantiated by the situational parameters surrounding its inception.

This is just a joke of course, and a play off of Mike Gorman’s comments during the Timberwolves game. But, it also hits a deeper note on this board and amongst the die hard contingent of Celtics fans that have begun to draw proverbial lines in the sand with certain players and in taking certain positions when evaluating this team going forward.

The irony in the opinions stated on this board is in the fact that the longer the losing continues the more divided Celtics Nation becomes. Meanwhile, the actual team has maintained its solidarity and support of each other throughout these difficult times.

At this stage in the development of the team’s youth it is justifiable to entertain a wide range of perspectives when it comes to playing favorites. But only an objective view of these players and their current skill sets, level of development, and ability to complement each other will manifest in an effective view of the teams options going forward. In that light, let us start out with an analysis of the team’s most intriguing youngster to get a feel for where he stands in the greater scheme of things.

(This is a long one, so click Read More to get the full article)

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Taking Stock in What’s In Hand

One of the main issues that Celtics fans have gotten drawn into this season is argument about the potential of our current players. The constituency of the fan base has become more polar in their opinions than a political debate. One group defends the virtues and potential of the team’s young players while the other side aims to expose them for their weaknesses.

There is no questioning the current record of the team and it’s indisputable that the current players are not good enough at the moment to win in this league. However, this season has also proven that this team has some young players who are on the upswing developmentally. So, the real argument of importance is "which of these guys can play?" The final level of growth for these players has yet to be determined, but if the plan is to build a team with Pierce as the centerpiece, there are timetables involved that just don’t allow for an open-ended level of patience with that development.

It's clear that Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Tony Allen, and Delonte West have separated themselves and shown that they can be consistent, quality NBA players that any team could plug into their rotation. This means that the team has four young players who are beyond potential and have arrived at an actual value, whatever level of value may be. Without pigeon-holing them into roles or placing mantels of expectation on them beyond what they’ve shown, the team can move forward and at least count on these four to be productive and reliable when building offensive and defensive schemes that incorporate their skill sets.

These four players may not have the most potential of all the team’s young assets, though Jefferson is widely considered to be in that category, but they are the most “game-ready.” It should also be noted that these four all have complementary skills, play different positions, and will be affordable when they come up for contract renewals. Jefferson is the only one amongst the four that stands to get a deal over 8 million annually. Gomes and West are more than likely mid-level players or below, while Allen’s injury probably will limit his earnings potential further.

These aren’t the type of factors that most fans want to focus on, but building a winning team starts with building chemistry and having complementary players who bring something to the table. These four have shown that if nothing else, they can be those types of players.

Taking that into consideration, one must then move into the realm of additional asset evaluation and the return that can be expected or sought from them. The draft pick this season will be the primary asset if the team retains the core youth that are furthest ahead developmentally. The value of this pick will be maximized once the lottery order is established and teams begin to turn their focus solely to scouting. Once the NBA season finishes General Managers begin to become fixated on the concepts of potential and the lure of the unknown, which is an advantage for a Celtics team that is basically attempting to sell those concepts as their currency.

Gerald Green and Rajon Rondo are the other two principle commodities the Celtics have to offer. Both are highly regarded by other organizations as young talents, but neither has displayed the type of consistent production the aforementioned four have. Both of these players may very well be high-end talents in the long run, but if this team is set on building around Pierce and committing to a core these players may serve that strategy better as assets.

Whether or not one wants to move the longer-term assets (Green, Rondo) or one or more of the shorter-term assets (Jefferson, etc) depends on return and direction. But all these players CAN be moved to upgrade the team's stability as it pertains to building around Pierce and making a highly competitive playoff team. The only question is which players will be moved and for what. The problem over the past two seasons hasn’t been whether or not other clubs value our youth, but it has been the discrepancy in valuation between those clubs and Danny Ainge that has prevented a significant move.

To Build Around Pierce Ainge Must Accept Less

For the past two seasons Ainge has held out for a perennial All Star/HoF caliber player as a return for the young players he has collected. But opposing teams aren’t going to easily be persuaded into giving up a franchise cornerstone in return for players who haven’t displayed any level of consistency. Everyone around the league is aware of the raw talent inherent in most young and unproven players, but there is no urgency to acquire these types of players in return for franchise caliber talent.

Only the rarest of circumstances even make these types of players available. When these players come on the market a General Manager’s career livelihood rests on obtaining the soundest value in return. Speculation into raw talent is essentially a gamble, tantalizing but not pragmatic.

Paul Pierce's recent statements to the media about his desire for veterans and his current age stipulate that Ainge should take one last bid at that high-end market: Pau Gasol, Kevin Garnett, and Jermaine O’neal are all worth pursuing certainly. Shawn Marion, Ray Allen or any other players that may come onto the market are also viable to inquire about. But after that, there is another tier of players: Mike Bibby, Brad Miller, Rashard Lewis, Jamal Magloire; these players are well within the "price range" of our available assets while still retaining a youthful core, but they’ll come at a price as well.

This is the direction that Ainge is going to have to move toward if he hopes fulfill Pierce’s needs and put a competitive playoff team on the court. There are feasible combinations available, quality lower-end veterans that teams will trade for the Celtics talent. But, they’re price isn’t going to be cheap. Coming to terms with this reality is something that Celtics fans and management must do to move forward going into next season.

Ainge probably could have had Allen Iverson, and he could most likely land Gasol as well. But he hasn't been willing to move four or five young assets in exchange for one, which is what any team is going to demand for that caliber of player because the young talent hasn't shown itself to the level that say Chicago's has.

With Pierce turning 30 next year, Ainge will have to re-calibrate his approach to the market. One last bid for the top-tier players is justifiable, but then a look toward the next tier must be done. He will get a lesser player in return, but he'll be able to do so without giving up the volume of assets he was reluctant to part with in the higher end scenario.

We may all want KG, but settling for a Bibby and a Magloire at the end of the day may be best if we want to keep Jefferson, Gomes, and West. Bibby could easily cost Ainge Rajon Rondo-which is something the constituency of this board is loathe to do-but if that's the cost of keeping the most game-ready players around Pierce, that is what the plan will have to adjust for.

The point is that the team situation will remain liquid, and always will be as long as there are quality assets, something Ainge has been adept at acquiring. If the team doesn't bring in a "superstar" to go with Pierce the team won't be "instant championship contenders" but they can easily move into the range of playoff contenders by taking some stable veterans who are at least starting caliber players. Cleveland, Toronto, Washington have role-playing veterans that surround their star players and that defines those three teams. Only Washington has more than one star amongst the three. Team’s that aren't true championship contenders, but are still in the process of building off of their playoff experience.

It is paramount to remember that a trade involving any of the youth isn’t an end-game proposition. It’s inevitable that good portions of these players aren’t going to manifest into a finished product while in Celtics green. Moving forward from this offseason, the Celtics will have more picks in which to acquire more young players. Not a single contributing young player on this team has been taken earlier than pick 15 and with Minnesota’s first round selection in hand, there is sure to be a pick in the future that will hold some value as well. There will be chances to replenish the roster or make additional moves with which to continue the construction project.

The team has been looking for the "home run", a phrase that Ainge used in the past which has set the tone for many fan's expectations. But building a championship team is typically a matter of base hits, not home runs. This team may not have the time or resources to touch all the bases, but they can certainly hit a double and continue to build toward driving things home.

Despite the mounting losses that this team has endured over the past few weeks, there has been an endearing spirit of resiliency and “fight” that has been a consistent and comforting presence throughout.

Nobody wants to see the team struggle in the standings, but it’s hard to place much fault on the roster as currently constituted. The main playing rotation is more than merely short on playing experience. The group that has taken the floor recently has logged precious few minutes with each other.

On-court chemistry involves more than just occupying a spot on the roster with each other. Many of the pains the team is going through revolve around a lack of familiarity with each other’s respective game nuances, something that veteran teams like San Antonio have in spades. Ryan Gomes explains:

“When you’ve been with a team that’s been together for three, four, five years, you know every move [of your teammates]. Tim Duncan knows that when he gets it at the elbow, he can give Parker a wink and he’ll know what’s going to happen. When you have that, you trust everything that you do [as a team]. We’re at the level where we’re trying to get there. We are a less experienced team than they are. They play off of reads; they don’t just play off of one-on-one.”

But that familiarity is growing by the play. Even though the bottom line of winning games isn’t being fulfilled the players are battling tooth and nail to the best of their ability. Mistakes have become less frequent and their level of competitiveness has increased dramatically, as evidence by their efficiency and production spike since the Memphis game two weeks ago.

With so many players displaying individual growth in their games it’s hard to argue against the value that the injury to Pierce has provided when thinking about long-term/short-term gain. Players are taking encouragement from their own improvement with an eye toward the return of their captain.

“The biggest thing is competing. We don’t have to be the most talented guys in the league to compete, that’s what we’ve done. But we’ve got to do it for 48 minutes. You can see the anticipation of Paul and Wally’s return. The key is that guys still have to stay aggressive and keep playing the way they’re playing. If we do that then when those guys come back we’re going to be a heck of a team man,” West stipulated after the highly contested game against the Spurs.

Dispelling the “culture of losing” fallacy

One of the principle arguments that has made its way through the message boards is the notion that the volume of losses that this team has endured will develop a culture of losing, or an acceptance of failure as it where.

Those who warn of the dangers that building through the draft may bring continually mention teams such as the Hawks and Clippers. However, there are some distinct differences between those teams and the current Celtics.

The Celtics have uniform communication from the ownership level all the way through the coaching staff. The team has an organizational direction that is supported from the highest levels of the team and is openly discussed and understood by all principle decision makers. Teams such as the Hawks, or until recently the Clippers, have had no such direction or communication. It can be legitimately argued as to whether or not the Celtics have an effective direction, but they’ve chosen to build around Pierce by developing youth and playing the market if and when they see value.

Teams with losing cultures never commit to any direction. They continually draft players, but they are also continually letting other young drafted players go to other teams as their new youth arrive. The Clippers were a turnstile franchise for decades before Donald Sterling began worrying about his legacy in Los Angeles.

With no direction from the top, players stop believing in ability of their franchise to find success. Players don’t get the solid leadership and consistent message they need to continue to fight through the down times. As those down times continue these players start playing for their next contracts or the next plane out of town. That’s what breeds a culture of losing, something that is not currently a part of the fabric of this team.

Rajon Rondo put it into perspective in a way that transcends his age and experience as a rookie trying to establish himself in the league.

“You kind of do think about [progress] individually, but its still a team sport. We’re trying to get wins on the floor. It hurts to have a couple of the losses that we’ve been having, those 3 and 4 point losses. We’ve got to stay positive and stay together. We don’t want to handle adversity, we want to overcome. Just stay together; if the fans stay with us, then we’ll be all right.”

Rivers’ role in keeping spirits high

The fact that these players have been able to maintain their focus and desire is no small matter. The mental drain of losing games is a tough task to endure, especially when so often it comes from the subtle mistakes that they make.

The dichotomy between the mental errors that keep this team constantly behind and the zeal with which they storm back only adds to their psychological exhaustion. As frustrating as it is for fans to go through the ups and downs of this season, imagine how taxing it is to those who are actually performing on a nightly basis.

The players want to win as badly as the fans that follow them, more so. What truly separates this team from many in the NBA is that this young band of brothers actually feels the sting of defeat internally. The effort they display on-court should be enough to recognize this.

But behind the scenes, when the cameras go off and the channel changes these players are still staring off beyond the microphones pushed in their faces, still going over every mistake and every missed opportunity in their minds. They constantly review what separated them from a win on any given night.

Doc Rivers is the man responsible for keeping these players searching for the good in every loss. He is the one who helps these young players put the past game behind them and look objectively at what’s to be done to find success the next night.

“Focusing on the small things. Keep improving. If you keep working then it will turn your way and things will happen for you. I tell our guys every night they’ve got to show up and be ready to play. You’ve got to have great focus and you’ve got to do all the little things. If we cut down on those little things, those little mistakes, then we will win games,” said Rivers.

Rivers has been the object of ire for most who follow this team. Pierce has bore this brunt at times, but it inevitable and overwhelmingly rests at the feet of Rivers for most.

Rivers is most often cited for his lack of establishing a rotation and his inability to substitute and situation-manage single possession games down the stretch. The problem with this line of reasoning is that he hasn’t had a team that could be easily managed in this manner until recently. Before injuries fully hit the club, Rivers could reasonably expect consistent performance from very few of his players.

Beyond Pierce and Szczerbiak, none of the other Celtics could be penciled in to produce on a nightly basis. This made substitution patterns and set rotations extremely difficult. The roster was a grab-bag-o-fun each and every night, with a couple of decent performances making a merry-go-round through the various talented youngsters getting playing time.

But, before Pierce and Szczerbiak went down, the output of Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, and Tony Allen had really begun to stabilize and this was starting to allow Rivers to commit to specific roles and rotations with much more consistent rhyme and reason.

The point guard position was most in flux up until recently, but with good reason. Sebastian Telfair had rightfully earned the starting position early on, while Delonte West’s injuries and Rajon Rondo’s inconsistency kept them jockeying for backup minutes.

When Telfair began to fall off this gave West the chance to jump back into the starting role. “It’s starting to click for me,” said West. “ I’m really dissecting coach Rivers’ offense, really starting to understand what it takes to be a good point guard in this league.”

Another injury to West allowed Rondo to get his second crack at major minutes, and this time he was ready to run with it. “ I watch a lot of film, see where I can get better, especially defensively and offensively knowing when I can attack and when I should try and knock down a shot…all aspects of the game,” Rondo explained.

Its easy to view the team from the outside and make judgments on which players have the most talent and who deserves the minutes in a theoretical rotation. But to keep order and maintain a full commitment from all the players, Rivers has had to establish uniform guidelines for earning playing time and has had to detail specific objectives for each player to strive toward, benchmarks that merit minutes.

When Rivers said a few weeks ago that he couldn’t just “give” minutes to a player performing below another just for the sake of development, he was describing the fine line between balancing the potential of one player against the collective interests of the team.

Gerald Green is currently in this situation right now. Green is more talented than Allen Ray, but Ray has played better than Green over the past week. Message board pundits have been up in arms about what’s best for Green and his confidence, but Green isn’t the only player on this team.

“I’m kicking myself a little because I had Allen Ray on the bench [against the Kings] and he had a great game the other night. It’s tough, because you try to get Gerald going. You try to get him to fight through tough nights. The only way you do that is by leaving him on the floor. Tonight is a night a probably shouldn’t have done that, “ Rivers mused after deciding to sit Ray in favor of encouraging Green.

Rivers wants his best players to develop, but he must be consistent with his message to ALL the players in order to get an effort out of each and every one of them. If Rivers determined playing time and role responsibility strictly off of potential, he’d risk creating an atmosphere entitlement for those he handpicked as the “future” of the franchise. At the same time, the Celtics would cease being a team and would begin to play as a collection of individuals, a gang of pirates playing against each other in a cutthroat battle for moving up the minute’s totem pole.

By clearly defining to the players what it takes to get on the floor, all his players feel like they receive equal treatment and each clearly knows what he has to do to get on the floor, as well as what will get him off of it.

Every player to the man knows that they must perform. Gerald Green plays harder and embraces coaching instruction more because he knows that playing time is afforded to him by production, not the reaction his name produces when he’s introduced to the crowd.

When Rivers plays 10 or more players on a given night-when he has that luxury-its because he’s fostering the sense of equality and camaraderie needed to keep a young group together and fighting. This is how he prevents a “culture of losing” to set in.

“Looking at the score every night, they’re closer than they think. But losses hurt. It hurts us all. Every night you come into that locker room and they got their heads down, its tough. Tomorrow we’ve got to build them back up and push them out there on Wednesday. That’s what we’re doing.”

Three Play “The Right Way”

During a difficult season for all Celtics fans, it’s important to find the positive elements and focus on them when looking for hope in the future. The message board has been ablaze with all sorts of argumentation over the prospects of this club going forward.

The multitude on injuries this team has had so early in the year has negated any ability to accurately gauge their capability as a unit. Even during the brief stretch of success before Paul Pierce went down, the team as a whole was still below full capacity.

The central factor going into this season was whether or not the younger players on this team could “separate” themselves from their peers and turn potential into production. Patience on this front has varied greatly amongst the constituents of the board but regardless of opinion, Ainge’s rebuilding plan is reliant on player progress.

The strange irony within the injuries this team has endured is the fact that all of the youngsters have gotten extended minutes. Those minutes translate directly into situations and responsibilities on the court that they wouldn’t have been afforded in such volume without the veterans going down.

Those opportunities have begun to yield results. Tony Allen’s loss was unfortunate, but there are a number of other players beginning to show their worth.

Three players displayed exactly the type of situational role responsibility that will be needed to make this team successful going forward.

Al Jefferson

Last years favorite whipping boy has silenced all but the harshest of critics with his play over the past six weeks. Jefferson had the mantle of “the man” thrown on him when Pierce went down and that responsibility has been handled with varying results.

Jefferson’s game is still primarily from eight feet and in. Being the only credible double team threat left standing has allowed opposing defenses to throw looks at Jefferson that almost no player in the league faces.

Last night, West’s outside shot really helped to keep the wing defender off him, which left Brad Miller as the primary help man. Miller is not known for his defensive prowess and that showed consistently on the floor all night.

But, it was Jefferson’s face-up shot that really helped to open up his offensive options last night. More than just the actual attempts, it was the threat of those shots that froze the secondary defenders on more than one occasion.

When Jefferson is on the court with Perkins, his face-up shot creates space for both to operate inside and sets up an opportunity for an uncontested put-back on the weak side. If the other interior defender rotates over, a jump shot or a quick pass over the top are now available options for Jefferson with Perkins open on the opposite side of the paint. Even coupled with Gomes, Jefferson’s face up shot can create a lane for Gomes to cut to the basket if the help defender commits early to the threat.

If the defense chooses to stay at home, Jefferson has only a single defender to contend with. “That’s his next step. He can make [the face-up] but it’s not his shot yet. When he adds that part to his game I don’t know if you can guard him anymore.” Rivers said.

Tonight that shot was going down, but even as he works on making it “his shot” there are other things Jefferson is beginning to do that help him to contribute on the nights where the opposition limits his quality offensive looks in the post.

“I think he learned early on that if [the other team] is going to trap him, he’s got to find a way to stay on the floor. He knows that he still has to improve defensively. He knows that if he’s not scoring offensively and he’s not doing anything else, then he’s probably coming out. I think he’s a pretty smart player. He figures if he rebounds well, he stays on the floor.” Rivers explained before the game.

One of the final missing elements in his physical progress that Jefferson has realized this year is his body strength. Jefferson has spoken about how his loss of body fat has helped him with conditioning and quickness, but he realizes that greater upper-body strength can help him be more dominant on the inside.

“Last summer I worked on getting the weight off and getting in shape, this summer I’m going to be building muscle and getting stronger. You look at a guy like Dwight Howard. Dwight Howard has both.” Jefferson explained.

Jefferson isn’t considered amongst the elite big men in the league yet and he has a lot to work on, but the progress-under-fire that he’s made thus far should bode well for the future of this team.

Ryan Gomes

Gomes is a player that has also elicited a small amount of criticism for a perceived regression in play of late. There are certainly limitations to Gomes’ game as an NBA power forward, but Gomes is aware that match ups and versatility will lead to effectiveness on the court in his future. This was never more evident than in his match up with Ron Artest, arguably the best defender in the league.

“You know he’s a tough defender. He guards the toughest guy on the opposing team every night. That will just help me out because I’m not at that level yet and I don’t get that much respect [from the officials], but he still plays the same every game so I can use this as motivation to get better.” Gomes explained.
Gomes talked about studying film and recognizing the differences in playing against perimeter players as opposed to strictly going against power forwards. He understands that his success at each position is predicated on identifying the match up on a given night and knowing what spots on the floor to focus in on both offensively and defensively.

“It was a good match up and I think I can learn from that. I’m going to break down the tape and see how I can get into some of the positions that he did on a lot of his plays. It’s a physical game in the NBA and once you have a reputation of being a certain type of player they’re going to let some things slide.”

Gomes looks at Artest as an excellent player to try and emulate in terms of on court play. Their size, strength, and athleticism are virtually identical to one another and both have played at the three and the four spots at times.

“I did well against [Artest], and if I do well against other guys guarding the perimeter playing the three after spending all of last season playing the four it can only help. Offensively it will probably make me a more versatile player because I’m doing things against small forwards and power forwards are much slower, so I can get away with a little more there too.”

Doc Rivers has also been quite pleased with Gomes and his play at the three. Since Allen went down, Gomes is averaging over 42 minutes per game and his role responsibility offensively has significantly increased, as has his confidence.

“You put him on Artest all game and that’s not easy for anybody. Those last two jumpers that Ryan missed front rim were probably a result of fighting the Mohegan guy.” Rivers quipped after the game.

Delonte West

West did exactly what will make him an effective player in this league during the Kings game. His best attribute is by far his ability to score the basketball, particularly his outside shot.

When West is taking open shots without conscience he becomes a player that the defense must account for and this enables him to get into the lanes and create opportunities for himself and others.

West will never have the pure speed or two-handed dribbling ability to simply break down his defender straight up. However, West is a dangerous playmaker when he’s looking for his own shots instead of trying to prove how much of a point guard he is.

Last night West didn’t hesitate to take what was given to him and once the shots started dropping it helped get Al Jefferson some room to operate as the strong-side wing defender couldn’t come down and trap Jefferson indiscriminately.

West’s defensive foot speed isn’t going to be exceptional against quicker point guards in this league and his playmaking off the dribble isn’t ideal for a starting point, but for a team that is basing its offense around Jefferson, and Pierce once he returns, West’s game is the furthest along of any of the other options at his position.

Ainge didn’t bring in two young point guards for no reason, but West will always have a role on this team as long as he shoots first and asks questions later. The more the team runs two point guard backcourts, the more useful West can be when he shoots to kill and stops trying to prove himself as a primary ball handler.

Looking Ahead

It’s painful for all Celtics fans to endure another losing season, but there are plenty of reasons to remain engaged in what the team is doing this season while keeping an eye toward the next.

Going into next season, Pierce will have the benefits of a developed low-post presence in Jefferson. Jefferson may still be in developmental mode, but the experience of this season will enable him to provide the necessary production and defensive attention to dramatically open up things for Pierce on the perimeter. With a true inside/outside offensive tandem, the rest of the team will find it much easier to execute what it is they do best.

Ryan Gomes is the quintessential example of a complementary player whose game can take off with two double-team worthy options to play with. Gomes stated a few weeks ago how much his game is predicated off of taking advantage of the seams created by opponents focusing their attention on Pierce.

The time spent without Pierce is enabling Gomes to develop other elements of his game as he is now a feature player in the Celtics current attack. When Pierce returns and couples with Jefferson to draw the opposition’s attention, Gomes should be substantially more dangerous because of the expansion of his own game.

West is much the same. He has mentioned in the past that it is more difficult for him to get his shot off against heavy pressure from larger defenders and he doesn’t have the innate skills to create as well as other players might. But West is an intelligent player who knows how to take play off of others. He is at his best when he is forgotten about or when the opposition gambles off of him, and so neglect becomes his ally.

There are others on this team that are benefiting from the chances that adversity has presented, but that doesn’t guarantee future success for this team. However, even the most pessimistic fans should be able to see the strategic position this team is in going forward into the off-season.

The final record of this team is not going to be indicative of the personnel that it possesses. Regardless, a high pick in this years draft holds substantial value to the franchise going forward.

Most on this board concur that another frontcourt player would be a boon to this team. “Defense” is the word thrown around most often by those that adamantly argue against this team’s direction. The 2007 draft is ripe with players who can step in and provide a frontcourt presence on both ends of the floor.

While no rookie drafted is going to step in and make this team a contender right off the bat, they will be able to contribute to the rotation and improve the team’s performance because of it.

In addition to any drafted lottery player, the team will have acquired another trade asset for playing the market this off-season. It has been stated quite clearly by Ainge that his objective is to build around Pierce by bringing in developed veteran help.

This past off-season didn’t provide the type of value that the team felt represented the talent on their roster. Instead of making a quick concession to placate the fan base and put and aesthetically more pleasing product on the floor, Ainge bet that he could improve the team’s bargaining position by standing pat and waiting for his hand to improve.

With over 50 games to go, it seems that the team’s valuable commodities are improving every day. Wins and losses shouldn’t be the central focus for anyone at this point. As long as the players on this team continue to increase their effectiveness and value to this club and others, the Celtics will be in a position to finally put a team on the floor that everyone can be satisfied with.

With the east the way it is now, contention becomes a much more palpable prospect going forward. Most of the teams in the East are flawed in some way shape or form. Few teams posses a legitimate inside/outside tandem to play around and with another substantial talent to added to a team deep with complementary talent, it shouldn’t be difficult to take the next step toward building a winner.

Season of Adversity Continues as Emotional Leader Falls

Authors Note: There is an important and inevitable human element at play behind the performance on the court. Normally, I leave that intrigue to other writers in an attempt to uncover the more basic game elements that effect execution. But, the scene inside the locker room after the game was such that I felt it essential to step out of character and write a different sort of piece. Tony Allen’s injury tonight exacted a cost greater than what can be felt by his statistical performance. His life’s path may have forever been altered. In the words that follow I’ll attempt to place some emotional perspective onto the situation in an attempt capture the sentiment of the inner-circle…

There was a multitude of intriguing story lines beginning to coalesce as this game progressed into the third quarter of play. Doc Rivers had elected to start the tandem of Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins for the fist time this season, Sebastian Telfair had put together a promising first half running the point, and Leon Powe had dusted off the cobwebs to play some inspired defense on Jermaine O’neal. Yet, amongst all the various intrigue of the evening it was Tony Allen who rose above all else.

It has been a season of redemption for Allen. The well-documented troubles of a season past had placed him under the scrutiny of the public eye in Boston. The promise he showed as a young upstart in his rookie year had faded for many into the inner recesses of their mind’s eye as Tony struggled through a painful sophomore slump.

Whether it was by his own doing or a combination of the fates, Tony Allen had found himself in an unenviable position on this Celtics team. Where once he had found himself a starter unopposed, Allen came into this season with a slew of competition vying for attention at his position. Paul Pierce and Wally Szczerbiak were obvious obstacles in the way of playing time. But, upstart Gerald Green had brought a dramatic improvement in his game with him to training camp and it was his highlight reel dunks that had replaced Allen’s in the hearts and minds of the Celtics faithful.

Tony Allen came into this season with an uncertain future. Early season opportunity and optimism from Coach Rivers soon gave way to doubt as Allen’s wayward play cost him playing time and a spot in the rotation. During a season where “separation” had been the hallmark message to the youth of this team, Allen seemed to be fading to the background, becoming an afterthought to many Celtics’ fans and surely a point of concern for the team.

But Allen battled back. The team’s litany of injuries gave him new life and Allen played with a purpose and a fire that was contagious to the team. As much as Al Jefferson’s interior play factored into the team’s 5 game winning streak, it was Allen’s enthusiasm and full-tilt frenetic energy that brought life to his squad.

It’s somewhat ironic that a player who has lacked focus at times could be such a focal point for others to feed off of. The intensity with which Allen has played this season had been one of the few satisfying elements of a frustrating season. While Pierce has been out it has unequivocally been Allen who has stepped forward and “separated” himself from his peers. A burgeoning career had begun to take shape as Allen put the past behind him and exploded to the forefront of the team’s youth movement.

At the 3:01 mark of the third quarter of last night’s game this chapter of Allen’s professional life came to a close.

As suddenly as Allen had emerged from obscurity, so too was the tone in which he exited. There was no great collision, no spectacular accident to wrap the mind around. The play was as commonplace as it was cruel in outcome. A light foul followed by a dunk attempt after the whistle. Nothing. It was ill-fortune only that can be held responsible for the aftermath. Allen came down and his knee just buckled.

It’s a play that must have happened a thousand times thus far this season and no player to date has suffered the same fate as Allen. But, tonight that same play found Allen being rushed to the hospital, his season most likely over and his career in doubt. Until the results of the MRI are revealed, all any of us can do is pray for the best.

The point of this plea is not to over blow the incident. Of course there are more tragic happenings in the world. But it’s easy to summarize it as such, which wouldn’t give credence to the personal turmoil such an injury has thrown this team and that player into.

In the best situations a basketball team is like a family and tonight that family took a hit. When Rivers talks about Allen as an emotional leader that sentiment transcends the court of play and digs into the hearts and minds of the other players that make up that family.

Imagine if you were suddenly faced with the loss of your vocation. Imagine if circumstance found you no longer able to pursue that which you were most passionate about. Take the one thing that you love most and remove it from possibility. For some of you, imagine if you couldn’t watch basketball again, nor discuss it ardently on this board.

That’s the situation that Allen now may face as he prepares himself for the road ahead. In the very least, a year’s worth of rehabilitation will be necessary and who’s to say at what level he’ll return.

An ACL injury isn’t the career death sentence it was a few decades earlier, but it is still no small thing. Each injury is unique, but the probability of returning to full strength is less than ideal and for a player who’s game was predicated on explosive speed and power…who can say?

While the fans in the Garden booed obliviously during the team’s third quarter collapse, the team was vicariously feeling the pain that Allen’s expression belayed just moments before as he writhed on the floor. At that moment the team was devoid of more than just the steals and deflections, the fearless forays to the basket and gritty put-backs that Allen provided. The team was a body missing their heart, lifeless.

Yet, there was more cheering for the possibility of a free t-shirt than there was an extended sense of sorrow at Allen’s loss. For a fan base that prides itself on its knowledge and passion for their local teams, there was very little recognition evident about what the team was going through. I’ve never seen such faces on a group of players before.

Say what you want about Doc Rivers, but tonight I saw clearly why this team an he are so close. The post-game press conference was a sobering a scene as I’ve seen. {styleboxjp width=300px,float=right,color=black,textcolor=white,echo=yes}Rivers looked visibly shaken at the podium, his eyes almost glistening and his voice unsteady. Rivers is known for his ability to put a situation into perspective and to sum up the realities of the moment with a fresh look toward tomorrow. Tonight he had no answers. {/styleboxjp}

In the games that follow this season, we’ll all get our chance to see the remaining players of this team have their shot at making a name for themselves. Friday’s game will be back to the X’s and O’s as life goes on. But just reflect for a moment before moving on. Remember how much these Celtic players have invested in each other and this team, a blend of livelihood and brotherhood. Tonight cut them deeply.

Anyone who’s experienced a close, personal loss should sympathize….

Celtics Basketball from a Psychological Perspective

As ardent sports followers, it is often easy to raise the figures we see on the basketball court as being somehow super-human, or above the idiosyncrasies of normal human behavior. We both deify our heroes of the hardwood for their triumphs and are quick to vilify them for their perceived failures. No matter how impassioned we become over the exploits of the athletes that we follow, it is crucial to take into account the human element latent in all that we see.

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The Celtics’ point guard has been a hot topic amongst both Internet and traditional media sources as of late, and with good reason. No position on the team has had more volatility or instability than lead guard. Since Doc Rivers has been the coach of this Celtics team, Danny Ainge has brought in a litany of prospective players to fill the position. Chucky Atkins, Gary Payton, Marcus Banks, Delonte West, Orien Greene, Sebastian Telfair, and Rajon Rondo have all seen time on Rivers’ watch.

Yet, out of all the players that have gotten a chance to steer the ship, only Atkins, Payton, and West have been statistically productive. If one were to define a point guard’s duties as creating shots for others with ball-control and dribble penetration, the two grizzled veterans are the only one’s who have truly been given a point guard’s duties with the team.

Out of the youth, Delonte West has manned the role with the most consistency. West has been effective at limiting mistakes when on the court and he was a marksman from the field last season, ranking in the top 5 amongst point guards in field goal percentage. West’s all around effectiveness and resilient spirit make him an exemplary basketball player, one that has been rumored to be amongst Ainge’s “untouchables.”

While West contributes in multiple facets of the game, his skill-set is not optimally suited to that of a point guard’s traditional. He’s predominantly a left handed dribbler and this hurts his ability to bring the ball up court against pressure as well as contributing to his difficulty penetrating both sides of the lane. West is a solid playmaker when getting free in the lane, but one can see him fighting a shooter’s mentality on the break and close to the basket.

Though Ainge has been a staunch advocate for West, he clearly believes that there are elements to playing the point guard position that West cannot fulfill. That notion was driven home with the acquisition of Sebastian Telfair and Rajon Rondo during the off-season. Celtics fans are prone to play favorites with “their” player of choice, and the argument over the starting point guard position has increased in intensity as Telfair struggled throughout most of December.

An impressive preseason won Telfair the position doing the types of things offensively that traditional point guards do. But, his defensive focus and offensive struggles led to an eventual change back to West. This continual upheaval has led some to question the talent present at the position itself as well as questions about what the role of the point guard should be on a team led by Paul Pierce.

When factoring in the age, experience, skill set, approach, and work history of the team’s young point guards, it’s difficult to point to the talent level being the primary issue. Each of the players the team has could potentially develop into a quality starting guard in this league.

What we clearly haven’t been seeing is any type of trust or responsibility being given to any of the young point guards over the past few seasons. West’s consistent contribution last season could be attributed to limited options at the position as he was clearly the best choice for the role, but even with those minutes he wasn’t asked to do much with in the structure of the offensive sets other than hit shots. Telfair received substantial playing time as well this season, but his role decreased as other offensive options began to develop for the team. Even before Al Jefferson and Tony Allen began to assert themselves, Telfair was getting a high volume of his offense off of secondary drives and perimeter shots after the ball had cycled through the offense after he’d passed it off.

The truth of the matter is that the offense runs through Paul Pierce and it will continue to run through him as long as there is no established veteran to trust with the responsibility. As long a Pierce remains such a competent playmaker, there is no room for a young point guard to develop his game on-court under Doc Rivers. It’s hard to fault Rivers for limiting his young point guard’s responsibility. Rivers is a veteran of the position and understands how difficult the responsibilities of a fully functioning point guard can be, especially for group so young. Amongst the current crop of three, West has the most playing experience with three seasons spent in college and the pros. This is most likely why West has resurfaced as the starter, his best skills are shooting, hustling around the court, and making smart decisions, which is all that the point guards are asked to do after getting the team into its sets.

Its not coincidental that Sebastian Telfair started the season off shooting well and playing aggressively on his drives. That is indicative of the work he’s put into his game and the type of player that he is. But, Telfair plays a traditional floor generals game, he likes to direct traffic and make plays with the ball in his hands like any other quality starting point guard who runs their team. Telfair isn’t developed enough to receive that type of responsibility, but that is how he plays and that is how he’ll improve the fastest as a player. Standing out on the weak side baseline and hitting spot up shots or secondary penetration is not what a quality lead point guard does.

Regardless of which of the young point guards plays the role, none are in a position to develop as quickly as they could in another situation because the team is trying to compete as it rebuilds and has an effective veteran floor leader. Rajon Rondo has a built-in excuse for himself because of his rookie status and lack of effective face-up shot from any distance, but he wouldn’t be given any more responsibility than Telfair or West and he doesn’t play a style that fits what he’d be given either.

There appear to be two distinct options based off of the current situation. The team can either stick with West and run their offense primarily through their Hall of Fame shooting guard until the younger point guards develop to the point of Rivers’ trust or they can expedite the process by bringing in a veteran. The only hope for developing Rondo or Telfair during Pierce’s prime may rely on the latter option.

This may sound like somewhat of an indictment of the current team system, but it really seems as if its the only way that Rivers can be justified in giving that position any type of authority or control of the offense. Getting a Baron Davis or an Andre Miller will allow Rivers to build in offensive sets for the point guard position, which will in turn create sets for that veterans understudy.

Rivers will trust a high caliber developed talent, but he’s not going to give it to an unproven player-this has been verified throughout his time here. Pierce is a safer option for him despite his legitimate desire to have a point guard. Rivers may be too personally invested in developing that position because he used to play it. This may exacerbate the situation to some degree as he is overly critical at times and too conservative at others, making development of a player at that position a longer process.

Making a move for a veteran point guard may be the best way to help the team now and in the future. If they want to develop a younger point guard and get production out of the position requisite to the actual responsibilities of that position, adding a reliable floor general could serve both short-term and long-term objectives.

Fortunately, there are some good options available on the market that seem to be available for a price that would not cost this team its most prized youth. Unfortunately, the financial cost and contract length of those options may be prohibitive to the team’s overall rebuilding plan as they look to re-sign some of those youth in the upcoming seasons. None of the available players makes the team a contender either, so the important question to ask is what moves can the team afford to make in terms of assets and salary after a veteran presence is brought in? Far too often that question is left to chance in the zeal of the moment.

The ending of last night’s game against Golden State consisted of a series of plays that both led to the first Celtics’ loss in 6 games and the prolonged absence of Captain Paul Pierce for the next three weeks.

The Celtics had foul trouble all evening and Don Nelson’s unorthodox lineup helped to scatter Boston’s offensive attack. The Celtics couldn’t establish and inside game and got pulled into a perimeter-oriented attack. Despite the innumerable unforced turnovers, the team was able to muster enough composure to make this a one possession game going down the stretch.

Fast forward to just around the 3-minute mark in the fourth quarter, when the Celtics began to regain their composure. This is the time where three key events led to an eventual loss. The first major blow to the team’s attempt to get over the top and take the game came at the free throw line. After failing to make a sustained effort to establish themselves in the post all night, Al Jefferson got fed the ball on three possessions. Jefferson continued to show his effectiveness down low by drawing fouls and free throws on all three possessions.

With the team in the bonus, this was the perfect strategy to implement, as Jefferson is extremely hard to defend without fouling when he’s making his moves close to the basket. However, Jefferson could only convert on two out of six of his attempts culminating in consecutive misses on his last trip to the line. Those final misses may have broken the team’s confidence in going to him afterward and the Celtics had to search for points from the perimeter thereafter. As Jefferson progresses in his maturity and becomes accustom to shooting pressure free throws, this strategy should serve the team well. Jefferson has shown the makings of a solid free throw shooter and is very effective in spurts, but will need more repetition to raise his percentage to where it can be. But, on this night it was the first of the key elements that conspired to lead the team to a loss.

{styleboxjp width=300px,float=left,color=black,textcolor=white,echo=yes}The second major error occurred on the last possession of the game, before Pierce got the ball.{/styleboxjp} Many people were questioning Doc River’s decision not to call a timeout, but that is a mere judgment call that only looks preferable in hindsight. River’s philosophy has been to put the player’s in situations to make their own decisions, which is a style that mirrors other successful coaches around the league. In the end the players must read the defense, understand the scenario, and make the plays that are needed to win the game. On the last play of the game, Delonte West failed to do so.

West was pressed into increased duty at point guard due to Monta Ellis’ limited playing time and the shear size of Baron Davis. West had his moments in the game, though Davis was not to be denied on this night. West even hit two clutch shots after having an abysmal night from the field until that point. But, on the final possession West made a critical error in judgment that is an essential component of being an effective point guard.

The final possession was designed to go to Paul Pierce, that is the team’s M.O. and the absolute correct decision in a single possession game with Boston in control of the final shot. Nothing else during the fourth quarter made sense as Pierce was having a solid shooting night and the offense in general had not been able to establish a rhythm which would suggest another option.

However, When West brought the ball up to the right side of the arc, Pierce was already being shadowed by three defenders. Pierce’s own man had his hand squarely on Pierce’s backside and there was a defender on either side of him within one stride of closing him up in a box. With Pierce facing away from the basket, there was no chance for him to catch quickly and beat the trap once he caught the ball. But, West passed him the ball anyways and the resultant jump ball with .6 seconds on the clock essentially ended the game.

Whether it be confidence or experience, West should have broken the play by recognizing the defensive set-up. The floor was spaced nicely and Both Tony Allen Ryan Gomes and Jefferson had plenty of space to operate due to the defensive attention that Pierce was receiving. Their was also ample time on the clock to swing the ball away from Pierce and allow him to move into a more effective position to score. In time, the younger players on this team should be able to recognize these scenarios and be equipped to adjust accordingly, but on this night it was the second major factor that cost this team a chance at a win.

The third scenario that finally sealed Boston’s fate was after Pierce caught the ball. As has been discovered this morning, Pierce’s foot prevented him from being able to make a hard cut to the basket. Whether or not that cut would have resulted in a shot attempt or a turnover is uncertain, but the Warrior’s defense certainly was in a position to force Pierce into an extremely low percentage look regardless.

Pierce’s back was to the play when he initially received the ball and when he turned and saw the defense it looked as if he wanted to try and get a quick step back jumper off. That would have been the ideal shot for him in that scenario because it would have given Allen, Gomes, and Jefferson time to coral an offensive rebound, which might have been highly probable based off the positioning of the defense against Pierce.

But, Pierce couldn’t get the shot off as he was harassed by Jason Richardson, who played him strongly all night. At that point a timeout was the most prudent courts of action. But, Pierce hesitated and attempted to free himself once more which allowed the three defenders on him to tie him up and force the jump ball. Once that happened it was all over.

None of these players can be blamed for their situational reactions because all had mitigating circumstances surrounding their ability to execute in each of the three aforementioned scenarios. If the rest of the game had not transpired as it had the team would never have been in the situation that led to those three critical junctures, such is the way the ball bounces. But, for this team at this time the execution wasn’t there to pull out what River’s likes to call the “ugly games” which is another type of game that good team’s win.

{styleboxjp width=300px,float=right,color=black,textcolor=white,echo=yes}Now that Pierce is going to be absent for upwards of three weeks, the Celtic’s will essentially be playing “the roster of the future.”{/styleboxjp} It will obviously hurt the Celtic’s chances at short-term success to have both their veteran scorers out for this time period, but in the long view this could be an excellent exorcise for the youth of this team to build confidence and self-reliance.

Jefferson appears to be the de facto go-to player with the captain on the shelf and he will undoubtedly be faced with a number of pressure free throws as well as the attention and responsibility of being the leading man. Without the Presence of Pierce as a crutch, West will be faced with situations that will force him to make decisions based off of what’s presented to him, with no easy option evident.

For the rest of this squad, this will be an opportunity to take the reigns and show their mettle. Allen, Gomes, Telfair, and Green are going to be expected to perform in a way that has not been put on them before. They are no longer the supporting cast during Pierce and Szczerbiak’s absence; they are the main performers and must fight to build an identity quickly. So much has been made of how close this group of promising youth is off the basketball court, over the next three weeks, we shall see if that camaraderie can translate itself into an effective hierarchy on the hardwood. With the captain watching them perform, it may be just the opportunity this team has needed to transform itself into a collection of peers instead of a group of youngsters following Pierce.

{mos_smf_discuss:Celtics Talk}