SB Nation User Blog: Birdfan01

Orioles Top 10 Prospects

Birdfan01 — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 20:05:39 -0000

All ages are of opening day, * denotes left-handed hitter, # denotes switch hitter

Grading scale is similar to the one John uses- an A prospect is a top 7ish prospect, A- top 25, B+ top 75ish, B top 175ish

1. Brian Matusz, LHS, 23.2, Drafted 1st Round 08, Univ. San Diego

League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
A+ (CAR)	66.2	2.16	2.91	10.1	2.84	3.56	.68	1.44
AA (EL)	46.1	1.55	2.55	8.94	2.14	4.18	.39	1.19
MLB	44.2	4.63	4.08	7.66	2.82	2.72	1.21	0.66

Coming out of the University of San Diego, Matusz was billed as a pitcher who was close to major league ready, but it’s hard to believe even his most optimistic supporters could have envisioned him reaching the majors this quickly. After skyrocketing through the Orioles’ system, Matusz made 8 starts for the Orioles before he was shut down in early September. Although Matusz doesn’t have ace velocity- sitting in the low 90s- he projects as a 1-2 starter due to his advanced feel for pitching and his deep repertoire. He features a curve and a slider, both of which are 55s. Matusz’s best pitch is his change, which features great depth and is thrown with good arm speed. All of his offerings play up due to his command and feel for pitching. By all accounts Matusz is a great kid, and receives rave reviews for his make-up. Matusz figures to start the year in Baltimore, and may be the odds-on favorite to win the rookie of the year award in 2010. Grade A

2. Jake Arrieta, RHS, 24.1, Drafted 5th Round 07, TCU

Year

League

IP

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

HR/9

GO/AO

2008

A+ (CAR)

113

2.87

3.39

9.56

4.06

2.35

.56

1.14

2009

AA (EL)

59

2.59

3.08

10.7

3.51

3.05

.61

0.67

2009

AAA (INT)

91.2

3.93

4.15

7.66

3.24

2.36

.88

1.09

After experiencing a drop in velocity before the draft in 07, Arrieta dropped all the way to the 5th Round where the Orioles were happy to gobble him up. Given a well above-slot bonus of 1.1 million, Arrieta has done nothing but impress since then. Arrieta’s velocity has returned, and he routinely sits in the 93-94 mph range. In 2008 he was the only player below AA to represent the United States in the Olympics where he pitched as a starter. His breaking-ball is strikeout pitch with sharp, late break. Arrieta also shows some aptitude for throwing a change, but he needs to throw the pitch more to improve his feel for it. There are two projection tracks for Arrieta. One places him as a 3rd starter who is able to log 200 innings a year, and the other views him as a classic power closer. With his three pitches I view Arrieta as a starter long-term. He actually reminds me quite a bit of recently acquired Kevin Millwood, in both build and repertoire. The Orioles want Arrieta to cut down his stride to generate a better angle to the plate. Once he does that and polishes his command up some, Arrieta is likely to the see the big leagues- most likely sometime in July or August. Grade B+

3. Josh Bell#, 3B, 23.5, Drafted 4th Round 05, Florida HS

Year

League

PA

BB%

SO%

BA

OBP

SLG

BABIP

2B/HR

SB/CS

2008

A+ (CAL)

223

14.2

29.9

273

373

455

360

12/6

4/2

2009

AA (EL/SOU)

518

12.0

21.9

295

376

516

342

35/20

3/5

Acquired as the main piece of the George Sherrill trade from the Dodgers in July, Bell appears to be the long-term solution at third for the Orioles. Bell combines a discerning eye at the plate with prodigious power and projects to hit 25 HRs annually at the big league level. While Bell has a smooth swing from the left-side, scouts question whether he will ultimately have to scrap hitting right-handed as his career OPS from that side is a measly 693. Coming into the year some questioned whether Bell could stick at third, and it seems as though Bell answered those critics in 2009. Bell has always had plenty of arm to play third, and coming off knee surgery he lost weight and improved his mobility around the bag. The general consensus is now that Bell will be able to stick at third long-term. While Bill James projects Bell to hit for a 288/370/455 triple slash line in the majors in 2010, that projection is likely too optimistic. From all accounts the Orioles plan to take things slow with Bell, and he should spend the majority of 2010 in AAA. Long-term Bell projects as a adequate defender at third who should post impressive OBP and power numbers. Grade B+

4. Zach Britton, LHS, 22.4, Drafted 3rd Round 06, Texas HS

Year

League

IP

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

HR/9

GO/AO

2008

A (SAL)

147.1

3.12

3.57

6.96

2.99

2.33

.55

2.81

2009

A+ (CAR)

140

2.70

3.26

8.42

3.54

2.38

.39

3.38

Britton, in my mind, is one of the most intriguing arms in the minors right now. Fairly unheralded coming out of high school, Britton has added velocity in pro ball and maintained the world-class sink he gets on his FB (as evidenced by his astounding 3.38 GO/AO ratio in 09). His FB now runs 91-94 and very few hitters are able to do anything with it besides pound it into the ground. Britton has a slider that features 50 break, although his command for the pitch is poor at this point. While Britton doesn’t use his change much, the pitch has solid fade and could be a plus pitch in the future. While Britton’s ability to generate Ks and groundballs is a recipe for success, he must improve his command to have this level of success at the higher levels. Britton should move up to AA in 2010, and with a good start could find himself in AAA late in the year. Britton has the stuff to find himself at the top end of a major league rotation, and his ultimate role will be determined by the improvements he makes with his control. Grade B+

5. Matt Hobgood, RHS, 19.8, Drafted 1st Round 09, California HS

Year

League

IP

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

HR/9

GO/AO

2009

RC (APP)

26.2

4.73

2.90

5.40

2.70

2.00

0

1.65

Many were surprised, some even critical, when the Orioles took Hobgood 5th overall in this year’s draft. Most publications rated other prep arms such as Jacob Turner, Shelby Miller, and Zach Wheeler higher than Hobgood, but the Orioles fell in love with his make-up. Scouts laud Hobgood for his bulldog demeanor and work ethic. At 6’4” 245 Hobgood has a durable frame that should be able to withstand a starters workload. In high school Hobgood worked in the low 90s and was able to dial his fastball all the way up to 96 when he needed to, but in his pro debut he worked in the high 80s. Although reason for pause, this drop in velo is not overly concerning as many HS pitchers experience a dip in velo pitching deep into the summer for the first time after a long HS season. Hobgood also features a sharp downer curve that has the potential to be a swing-and-miss pitch and a promising change. The Orioles expect Hobgood’s velo will return in 2010 and he should start his first full pro season in the sally league. Hobgood’s performance there will determine his timetable. Ultimately, Hobgood projects as a 2/3 starter who should be able to work deep into games. Grade B

6. Brandon Snyder, 1B, 23.5, Drafted 1st Round 05, Virginia HS

Year

League

PA

BB%

SO%

BA

OBP

SLG

BABIP

2B/HR

SB/CS

2008

A+ (CAL)

476

6.3

19.1

315

358

490

366

33/13

3/2

2009

AA (EL)

233

11.8

22.4

343

421

597

404

19/10

0/1

2009

AAA (INT)

297

8.4

24.4

248

316

355

321

18/2

3/1

It was a tale of two seasons for Snyder in 2009. After absolutely destroying the Eastern League to a tune of a 1018 in over 200 at-bats Snyder struggled mightily in AAA where he hit only 2 homers in just under 300 plate appearances. Some of his struggles in AAA were chalked up to Norfolk’s stadium that is notoriously tough on power hitters. Snyder said that after he initially struggled in AAA he changed what got him there and fell into an even deeper slump. An encouraging sign for Oriole fans is that Snyder raked in the AFL posting a 600 slugging percentage and drawing 13 walks compared to only 11 strikeouts. Scouts question the degree of power that Snyder will have in the majors. His swing is fairly flat, and Snyder has never hit more than 13 HRs in a season, and for a first baseman to have value with 13 HRs a high average and a lot of walks are necessities. Snyder has shown impressive gap power, hitting 33 two-baggers in 08 and following that up with 37 in 09. I think some of those doubles will become HRs as Snyder matures and gains a greater understanding of his swing. A triple slash line of 300/360/490 does not seem unreasonable to me for Snyder in the majors. With Garrett Atkins signing in Baltimore, the Orioles have the ability to keep Snyder in AAA and let him hone his swing. He could receive an audition in September, and I see him as the Orioles’ starting first baseman in 2011. Grade B

7. Brandon Erbe, RHP, 22.4, Drafted 3rd Round 05, Maryland HS

Year

League

IP

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

HR/9

GO/AO

2008

A+ (CAR)

150.2

4.30

4.20

9.02

2.99

3.02

1.25

0.75

2009

AA (EL)

73

2.34

4.12

7.64

4.32

1.77

0.62

0.90

Erbe dealt with shoulder tendonitis last year, limiting him to only 73 innings in AA. When he returned to action his velo was down slightly, working in the low 90s as opposed to 93-94 where he had worked in the past. The drop in velo was evidenced by a drop in his K rate from 9 to 7.6. After the season Erbe went to the AFL to make up for lost time, and pitched well, albeit in a small showing. Scouts seem to like Erbe more than the stats suggest they should. Erbe’s AA manager Brand Komminsk said he preferred Erbe to Arrieta, due to Erbe’s frame and pure stuff. Erbe features a plus slider and a developing change. Komminsk went on to posit that hitters don’t pick up the ball against Erbe. Erbe says his shoulder feels great and expects to be 100 percent for the 2010 season. If Erbe’s velocity returns and he is able to iron out his fastball command he could have a real break out season in 2009. Despite Komminsk’s ringing endorsement I have concerns about Erbe. Aside from health issues, Erbe’s lack of command, a solid 3rd pitch, and fly-ball tendency all scare me long-term. I think Erbe may be best suited for the bullpen, where he could profile as a closer. Erbe is still young enough to improve and has a lot of potential, but more risk than most AA prospects. Grade B

8. Xavier Avery*, CF, 20.3, Drafted 2nd Round 08, Alabama HS

Year

League

PA

BB%

SO%

BA

OBP

SLG

BABIP

2B/HR

SB/CS

2008

RC (GCL)

192

5.4

29.1

280

333

337

395

8/0

13/3

2009

A (SAL)

509

5.4

23.5

262

306

340

339

15/2

30/10

A two-way player in high school, Avery was committed to play running back at the University of Georgia before signing with the Orioles. As Avery’s football background suggests, he has blazing speed- timed at 6.2 in the 60-yard dash. Scouts struggled to get a read on Avery due to the fact that he was not 100 percent focused on baseball and he faced poor competition in high school. Coming out of the draft some projected that Avery would have to spend two years in rookie ball as he adjusted to professional baseball. Avery has surpassed those expectations by surviving in the Sally League in his first full pro season. While his overall numbers are not objectively encouraging, they are extremely impressive when one considers his lack of baseball experience. One of the most encouraging signs was that Avery’s walk rate remained steady moving up to full-season ball and he cut his strikeout rate almost 6 percent. At this point Avery is more of an athlete playing baseball than a baseball player. Despite his outstanding speed he struggles in the outfield to get good reads and jumps on balls, and he has a ways to go in learning to steal bases. While he hasn’t shown power yet, he is far from a slap hitter and scouts believe he should hit 8-12 HRs when all is said and done. While I am more bullish on Avery than others, I am excited by the progress he has made and enticed by his upside. Grade B-

9. Luis Lebron, RHR, 25.1, Signed as a Free Agent 04, Dominican Republic

Year

League

IP

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

HR/9

GO/AO

2009

A+ (CAR)

33

3.00

2.65

14.2

5.45

2.61

0.55

0.70

2009

AA (EL)

27.1

1.98

3.20

12.8

4.28

2.99

0.99

0.68

After missing almost all of 2008 due to injuries, Lebron burst onto the prospect scene in 2009. His upper 90s velocity returned and his slider was as sharp as ever. Furthermore, Lebron showed improved command. While in his last healthy season in 2007 Lebron walked a batter an inning, he was able to cut that rate in half in 2009. If Lebron can harness his command a little more his electric stuff (according to BA he was second amongst all relievers in batting average against and his 13.6 K/9 was 5th) should allow him to handle closing duties in the major leagues. Lebron would be well served by at least half a year in AAA to work on his command, but his stuff will make it tough for the Orioles to hold him back for long. His injuries are an obvious cause for concern, as is his flyball tendency. An additional concern I have is that prospects with big fastballs are often able to blow away minor league hitters but struggle in the big leagues when they fail to command secondary stuff and allow big league hitters to sit on the fastball. For this reason I don’t think Lebron will profile as a closer, but he is still a good prospect. Lebron reminds me a lot of Jose Arrendondo. Grade B-

10. Mychal Givens, SS, 19.11, Drafted 2nd Round 09, Florida HS

Year

League

PA

BB%

SO%

BA

OBP

SLG

BABIP

2B/HR

SB/CS

2009

DNP- Signed Late

A two-way standout in high school, Givens had many scouts intrigued by his potential on the mound. His fastball reached the upper 90s, but his low arm-slot rendered his pitching career likely to culminate in the bullpen. At short Givens has all the tools to stay at the position long-term. Obviously he has enough arm for the position, and his range and hands could be plus tools. At the plate Givens is more projection at this point, but unlike many high school hitters Givens shows a patient approach at the plate. He has good bat speed which leads scouts to project he will hit for some power down the road. Because he signed right before the deadline Givens will not begin his pro career until 2010. It is unlikely that he will earn a full season assignment, although it is not out of the question. Without any pro data to go on it is tough to get a read on Givens, but he has the tools to be a very productive big league player. Grade B-

Oriole Prospects 11-20

Birdfan01 — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 19:12:46 -0000

11. Kam Mickolio, RHR, 25.11, Drafted 18th Round 06 (Mariners), Utah Valley College

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2008	AA (EL)	38.1	4.70	3.75	9.39	5.17	1.82	0.47	1.70
2008	AAA (INT)	20	1.80	2.55	10.6	4.05	2.62	0	1.57
2009	AAA (INT)	43.2	3.50	3.11	10.7	3.30	3.24	0.82	0.54
2009	MLB	13.2	2.63	2.58	9.22	4.61	2.00	0	1.08

While Mickolio is will be 26 for most of the 2010 season, he has far less baseball experience than the typical player. Growing up in Montana Mickolio’s high school didn’t have a baseball team, so his only exposure to the sport came during the summer playing American Legion ball. At 6’9” 255 Mickolio is an imposing figure on the mound. He features a fastball that sits comfortably in the mid to upper 90s. Mickolio also throws a slider with solid break and will throw a change every now and then. Making Mickolio even more of an anomaly is his weird motion. He steps almost directly at a right-handed hitter and throws across his body to the plate. Unsurprisingly, most hitters (right-handers especially) are not real comfortable hitting against a 6’9” pitcher throwing in the upper 90s striding right at them. A couple causes for concern are that Mickolio was shut down to end the 2009 season with dead arm. Furthermore, Mickolio was a flyball pitcher in 2009, after generating good ground ball rates the previous year. In my eyes Mickolio is a future set-up guy. He should spend all of 2010 with the major league club assuming he is healthy. Grade B-

12. Cameron Coffey, LHS, Drafted 22nd Round 09, Texas HS

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2009	DNP- Signed Late/Injured

Coffey wasn’t a highly rated prospect entering his senior season. But at the outset of his senior campaign he was sitting in the mid 90s. Unfortunately for Coffey he went down with Tommy John surgery early in the year and many teams were scared off. Encouraged by his work ethic and projectable 6’4” frame, the Orioles spent $990,000 to buy Coffey out of his Duke commitment. I’m not exactly sure as to Coffey’s availability for the 2010 season. My sense is that he will be used very cautiously towards the middle of the season when he is likely to be ready to pitch, but I wouldn’t expect him to see more than a couple starts after an extensive rehab program. I haven’t heard anything concerning about Coffey’s mechanics and hopefully this will be his only major arm issue. The recovery rate from Tommy John is very high and I don’t have much concern about Coffey’s stuff returning. The real problem is that the surgery will cost him a valuable year of development time. Lefties who throw in the mid 90s certainly don’t grow on trees, and that velo coupled with his work ethic and frame make Coffey a very intriguing prospect. Grade C+

13. Aaron Wirsch*, LHS, 19.5, Drafted 7th Round 09, California HS

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2009	RC (GCL)	16.2	2.16	2.84	9.72	5.40	1.80	0	3.14

Singed for an above-slot bonus of $200,000, the Orioles may have found a real steal in Wirsch. His fastball currently only sits in the 86-87 range, but at 6’6” he offers a world of projection. Wirsch also throws a big breaking curveball and a promising change. While Wirsch’s debut is too small to make any meaningful statistical inferences (although the GB rate is very encouraging), scouts were very impressed with Wirsch. He would have been on BA’s GCL top 20 had he amassed enough innings to qualify. Wirsch should pitch in Bluefield in 2010 and make his full season debut in 2011. While he has tremendous upside, Wirsh is a long way away from the big leagues. Grade C+

14. Jesse Beal, RHS, 19.9, Drafted 14th Round 08, Virginia HS

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2009	RC (APP)	74	4.26	2.98	4.99	0.97	5.14	0.36	1.87

Signed to an above-slot bonus of $275,000 in 08, Beal is an anomaly. At 6’6” there is tremendous projection remaining in his frame and as he fills out many project that he will add mph. He currently works in the mid to upper 80s and occasionally hits above 90. However, unlike the classic projectable high school pitcher, Beal already shows a high degree of polish. He has excellent control as evidenced by his sub- 1 walk per 9 rate. His fastball also gets good sink, and if he adds the velocity that many believe he will he could be a monster. Because of Beal’s exceptional control I don’t think it is a stretch to believe that he will start 2010 in Delmarva and should hold his own. Oriole fans should be very exited about this kid as his upside is through the roof, although his lack of Ks makes me rank Wirsh ahead of him. Tough to grade a guy who is so far away and relies so heavily on projection. We will have a much better idea of just how good Beal will be next year. Grade C+

15. Pedro Florimon#, SS, 23.4, Signed as a Free Agent 04, Domincan Republic

Year	League	PA	BB%	SO%	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2B/HR	SB/CS
2008	A (SAL)	305	9.1	36.1	223	298	297	349	18/0	13/2
2009	A+ (CAR)	486	8.9	24.9	267	336	428	338	32/9	15/7

Prior to his break out in 2009 Florimon was on very few prospect radars. But Florimon has put himself on the prospect map with a strong 09. He has always had good defensive tools. While he isn’t a speedster, Florimon has plus range, a strong arm, and has shown the ability to make the spectacular play. Although he has all the tools to be a plus SS, Florimon needs to iron out his footwork, as he sometimes lets the ball play him- causing him to commit 36 errors this year. Offensively, Florimon is a fairly patient hitter, walking in almost 9 percent of his plate appearances. Although he did not do much with the bat up until this year, in 2009 he showed impressive power for a middle infielder- posting a .160 ISO. Florimon’s offensive break out doesn’t seem to be a fluke either, his BABIP fell in 09 and he cut his strikeout percentage almost 12 percent! If Florimon can build off his solid 09 campaign at the plate and iron out his footwork in the field he profiles as a 5 in the majors. It seems like there are too many questions surrounding Florimon to project him as an everyday player, but his inclusion on the Orioles’ 40 man roster this off season is telling of how highly he is viewed within the organization. I see Florimon as a solid utility infielder, but with the tools to be more. Grade C+

16. Brandon Waring, 3B/1B, 24.3, Drafted 7th Round 07 (Reds), Wofford College

Year	League	PA	BB%	SO%	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2B/HR	SB/CS
2008	A (MWL)	503	8.9	35.4	270	346	467	374	23/20	1/0
2009	A+ (CAR)	543	9.7	25.6	273	354	520	316	35/26	5/3

Acquired by the Orioles last off season as a part of the Ramon Henandez trade, Waring put up a very solid campaign in 2009. While at 23 he was old for the Carolina league he performed as well as anyone could have expected, cutting his strikeout rate almost ten percent while increasing his walk rate. Moving out of the Midwest league helped improve his ISO 50 points from 08. In the field Waring has a strong arm, but his hands are a little hard and he doesn’t have good range. It is unlikely that he will ever be more than adequate at third, but putting him at first doesn’t solve the problem, as it only takes away his best defensive tool- his arm. 2010 will be telling for Waring, a good showing will be a strong indication that his strong 2009 was not a mirage and that his bat is for real. Waring had a great season in 2009, but his lack of position and advanced age scare me. Grade C+

17. Michael Ohlman C, 19.4, Drafted 11th Round 09, Florida HS

Year	League	PA	BB%	SO%	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2B/HR	SB/CS
2009	DNP- Signed Late

It took $995,000 for the Orioles to sign Ohlman away from his Miami commitment. At 6’4” 200, Ohlman does not have a classic catchers frame, and he is far from a polished receiver. He does, however, have tremendous arm-strength that should halt opposing running games. Ohlman is very athletic for a catcher and could move to third or right if catching doesn’t work out (or because of that Wieters guy). At the plate Ohlman features good raw power and a quick bat. He could hit .280 with 25 HRs in the bigs. Ohlman has a lot of potential, but a lot of questions. Grade C+

18. Ryan Berry, RHS, Drafted 9th Round 09, Rice University

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2009	DNP- Signed Late/Injured

Coming into the season Berry was projected as a 1st or 2nd round pick, and at the start of the season he did not disappoint. But as Rice pitchers so often do, Berry came down with a shoulder injury and missed a significant portion of the 2009 season. The Orioles were able to sign him for 3rd round money and are optimistic about the signing. When healthy Berry sits in the low 90s, but gets by on command and pitchability. He features a plus knuckle-curve and a solid change. Berry is expected to be healthy to start 2010, but some scouts still worry about the stiff landing in his delivery and his Rice pedigree. It’s all about health with Berry. If he can stay healthy Berry should rise through the system very quickly and ultimately profiles as a 3-4 starter. Grade C+

19. Caleb Joseph, C, 23.9, Drafted 7th Round 08, Lipscomb University

Year	League	PA	BB%	SO%	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2B/HR	SB/CS
2008	A- (NYP)	263	5.9	23.5	261	303	441	310	19/8	2/0
2009	A+ (CAR)	412	6.4	16.8	284	337	450	316	23/12	2/1

Joseph has been a pleasant surprise for the Orioles. He successfully made the jump from the New York Penn league all the way to the Carolina league in 2009, and he was hitting .340 until a prolonged August swoon caused his average to drop to 284. The Orioles believe that Joseph wore down at the end of the season and that fatigue caused his slump. Durability is a concern for Joseph. At 6’3” 180 Joseph does not have a classic catchers build and he will need to add strength. A former short stop, Joseph has a good arm and receives the ball quietly behind the plate, but he needs to improve his blocking skills. At the plate Joseph needs to develop a more patient approach, but he should hit for average and around 15 HRs annually. For me, Joseph profiles as a backup rather than a starter. Grade C+

20. Randy Henry, RHP, Drafted 4th Round 09, South Mountain CC (Arizona)

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2009	DNP- Signed Late

After having Tommy John Surgery in 2008, Henry was used very cautiously in 2009- only throwing 11 innings on the year. As the year went on Henry gained confidence in his arm and his electric stuff began to return, and the Orioles saw enough to sign him for and above-slot $365,000. His fastball sat in the mid 90s and he features a sharp breaking ball. Henry also throws a change and projects to have the repertoire of a starter (assuming he has the durability for it). Henry should be healthy in 2009, but the Orioles will likely take it slow with him, easing him back into a full workload. He could begin 2009 in instructional league to build up strength and head to Aberdeen or Delmarva later in the year. Certainly a name worth watching. Grade C+

Top 10 Oriole Prospects

Birdfan01 — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 19:02:54 -0000

-All ages are of opening day

* denotes left-handed hitter

# denotes switch hitter

1. Brian Matusz, LHS, 23.2, Drafted 1st Round 08, Univ. San Diego

League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
A+ (CAR)	66.2	2.16	2.91	10.1	2.84	3.56	.68	1.44
AA (EL)	46.1	1.55	2.55	8.94	2.14	4.18	.39	1.19
MLB	44.2	4.63	4.08	7.66	2.82	2.72	1.21	0.66

2. Jake Arrieta, RHS, 24.1, Drafted 5th Round 07, TCU

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2008	A+ (CAR)	113	2.87	3.39	9.56	4.06	2.35	.56	1.14
2009	AA (EL)	59	2.59	3.08	10.7	3.51	3.05	.61	0.67
2009	AAA (INT)	91.2	3.93	4.15	7.66	3.24	2.36	.88	1.09

After experiencing a drop in velocity before the draft in 07, Arrieta dropped all the way to the 5th Round where the Orioles were happy to gobble him up. Given a well above-slot bonus of 1.1 million, Arrieta has done nothing but impress since then. Arrieta’s velocity has returned, and he routinely sits in the 93-94 mph range. In 2008 he was the only player below AA to represent the United States in the Olympics where he pitched as a starter. His breaking-ball is strikeout pitch with sharp, late break. Arrieta also shows some aptitude for throwing a change, but he needs to throw the pitch more to improve his feel for it. There are two projection tracks for Arrieta. One places him as a 3rd starter who is able to log 200 innings a year, and the other views him as a classic power closer. With his three pitches I view Arrieta as a starter long-term. He actually reminds me quite a bit of recently acquired Kevin Millwood, in both build and repertoire. The Orioles want Arrieta to cut down his stride to generate a better angle to the plate. Once he does that and polishes his command up some, Arrieta is likely to the see the big leagues- most likely sometime in July or August. Grade B+

3. Josh Bell#, 3B, 23.5, Drafted 4th Round 05, Florida HS

Year	League	PA	BB%	SO%	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2B/HR	SB/CS
2008	A+ (CAL)	223	14.2	29.9	273	373	455	360	12/6	4/2
2009	AA (EL/SOU)	518	12.0	21.9	295	376	516	342	35/20	3/5

Acquired as the main piece of the George Sherrill trade from the Dodgers in July, Bell appears to be the long-term solution at third for the Orioles. Bell combines a discerning eye at the plate with prodigious power and projects to hit 25 HRs annually at the big league level. While Bell has a smooth swing from the left-side, scouts question whether he will ultimately have to scrap hitting right-handed as his career OPS from that side is a measly 693. Coming into the year some questioned whether Bell could stick at third, and it seems as though Bell answered those critics in 2009. Bell has always had plenty of arm to play third, and coming off knee surgery he lost weight and improved his mobility around the bag. The general consensus is now that Bell will be able to stick at third long-term. While Bill James projects Bell to hit for a 288/370/455 triple slash line in the majors in 2010, that projection is likely too optimistic. From all accounts the Orioles plan to take things slow with Bell, and he should spend the majority of 2010 in AAA. Long-term Bell projects as a adequate defender at third who should post impressive OBP and power numbers. Grade B+

4. Zach Britton, LHS, 22.4, Drafted 3rd Round 06, Texas HS

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2008	A (SAL)	147.1	3.12	3.57	6.96	2.99	2.33	.55	2.81
2009	A+ (CAR)	140	2.70	3.26	8.42	3.54	2.38	.39	3.38

Britton, in my mind, is one of the most intriguing arms in the minors right now. Fairly unheralded coming out of high school, Britton has added velocity in pro ball and maintained the world-class sink he gets on his FB (as evidenced by his astounding 3.38 GO/AO ratio in 09). His FB now runs 91-94 and very few hitters are able to do anything with it besides pound it into the ground. Britton has a slider that features 50 break, although his command for the pitch is poor at this point. While Britton doesn’t use his change much, the pitch has solid fade and could be a plus pitch in the future. While Britton’s ability to generate Ks and groundballs is a recipe for success, he must improve his command to have this level of success at the higher levels. Britton should move up to AA in 2010, and with a good start could find himself in AAA late in the year. Britton has the stuff to find himself at the top end of a major league rotation, and his ultimate role will be determined by the improvements he makes with his control. Grade B+

5. Matt Hobgood, RHS, 19.8, Drafted 1st Round 09, California HS

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2009	RC (APP)	26.2	4.73	2.90	5.40	2.70	2.00	0	1.65

Many were surprised, some even critical, when the Orioles took Hobgood 5th overall in this year’s draft. Most publications rated other prep arms such as Jacob Turner, Shelby Miller, and Zach Wheeler higher than Hobgood, but the Orioles fell in love with his make-up. Scouts laud Hobgood for his bulldog demeanor and work ethic. At 6’4” 245 Hobgood has a durable frame that should be able to withstand a starters workload. In high school Hobgood worked in the low 90s and was able to dial his fastball all the way up to 96 when he needed to, but in his pro debut he worked in the high 80s. Although reason for pause, this drop in velo is not overly concerning as many HS pitchers experience a dip in velo pitching deep into the summer for the first time after a long HS season. Hobgood also features a sharp downer curve that has the potential to be a swing-and-miss pitch and a promising change. The Orioles expect Hobgood’s velo will return in 2010 and he should start his first full pro season in the sally league. Hobgood’s performance there will determine his timetable. Ultimately, Hobgood projects as a 2/3 starter who should be able to work deep into games. Grade B

6. Brandon Snyder, 1B, 23.5, Drafted 1st Round 05, Virginia HS

Year	League	PA	BB%	SO%	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2B/HR	SB/CS
2008	A+ (CAL)	476	6.3	19.1	315	358	490	366	33/13	3/2
2009	AA (EL)	233	11.8	22.4	343	421	597	404	19/10	0/1
2009	AAA (INT)	297	8.4	24.4	248	316	355	321	18/2	3/1

It was a tale of two seasons for Snyder in 2009. After absolutely destroying the Eastern League to a tune of a 1018 in over 200 at-bats Snyder struggled mightily in AAA where he hit only 2 homers in just under 300 plate appearances. Some of his struggles in AAA were chalked up to Norfolk’s stadium that is notoriously tough on power hitters. Snyder said that after he initially struggled in AAA he changed what got him there and fell into an even deeper slump. An encouraging sign for Oriole fans is that Snyder raked in the AFL posting a 600 slugging percentage and drawing 13 walks compared to only 11 strikeouts. Scouts question the degree of power that Snyder will have in the majors. His swing is fairly flat, and Snyder has never hit more than 13 HRs in a season, and for a first baseman to have value with 13 HRs a high average and a lot of walks are necessities. Snyder has shown impressive gap power, hitting 33 two-baggers in 08 and following that up with 37 in 09. I think some of those doubles will become HRs as Snyder matures and gains a greater understanding of his swing. A triple slash line of 300/360/490 does not seem unreasonable to me for Snyder in the majors. With Garrett Atkins signing in Baltimore, the Orioles have the ability to keep Snyder in AAA and let him hone his swing. He could receive an audition in September, and I see him as the Orioles’ starting first baseman in 2011. Grade B

7. Brandon Erbe, RHP, 22.4, Drafted 3rd Round 05, Maryland HS

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2008	A+ (CAR)	150.2	4.30	4.20	9.02	2.99	3.02	1.25	0.75
2009	AA (EL)	73	2.34	4.12	7.64	4.32	1.77	0.62	0.90

Erbe dealt with shoulder tendonitis last year, limiting him to only 73 innings in AA. When he returned to action his velo was down slightly, working in the low 90s as opposed to 93-94 where he had worked in the past. The drop in velo was evidenced by a drop in his K rate from 9 to 7.6. After the season Erbe went to the AFL to make up for lost time, and pitched well, albeit in a small showing. Scouts seem to like Erbe more than the stats suggest they should. Erbe’s AA manager Brand Komminsk said he preferred Erbe to Arrieta, due to Erbe’s frame and pure stuff. Erbe features a plus slider and a developing change. Komminsk went on to posit that hitters don’t pick up the ball against Erbe. Erbe says his shoulder feels great and expects to be 100 percent for the 2010 season. If Erbe’s velocity returns and he is able to iron out his fastball command he could have a real break out season in 2009. Despite Komminsk’s ringing endorsement I have concerns about Erbe. Aside from health issues, Erbe’s lack of command, a solid 3rd pitch, and fly-ball tendency all scare me long-term. I think Erbe may be best suited for the bullpen, where he could profile as a closer. Erbe is still young enough to improve and has a lot of potential, but more risk than most AA prospects. Grade B

8. Xavier Avery*, CF, 20.3, Drafted 2nd Round 08, Alabama HS

Year	League	PA	BB%	SO%	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2B/HR	SB/CS
2008	RC (GCL)	192	5.4	29.1	280	333	337	395	8/0	13/3
2009	A (SAL)	509	5.4	23.5	262	306	340	339	15/2	30/10

A two-way player in high school, Avery was committed to play running back at the University of Georgia before signing with the Orioles. As Avery’s football background suggests, he has blazing speed- timed at 6.2 in the 60-yard dash. Scouts struggled to get a read on Avery due to the fact that he was not 100 percent focused on baseball and he faced poor competition in high school. Coming out of the draft some projected that Avery would have to spend two years in rookie ball as he adjusted to professional baseball. Avery has surpassed those expectations by surviving in the Sally League in his first full pro season. While his overall numbers are not objectively encouraging, they are extremely impressive when one considers his lack of baseball experience. One of the most encouraging signs was that Avery’s walk rate remained steady moving up to full-season ball and he cut his strikeout rate almost 6 percent. At this point Avery is more of an athlete playing baseball than a baseball player. Despite his outstanding speed he struggles in the outfield to get good reads and jumps on balls, and he has a ways to go in learning to steal bases. While he hasn’t shown power yet, he is far from a slap hitter and scouts believe he should hit 8-12 HRs when all is said and done. While I am more bullish on Avery than others, I am excited by the progress he has made and enticed by his upside. Grade B-

9. Luis Lebron, RHR, 25.1, Signed as a Free Agent 04, Dominican Republic

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2009	A+ (CAR)	33	3.00	2.65	14.2	5.45	2.61	0.55	0.70
2009	AA (EL)	27.1	1.98	3.20	12.8	4.28	2.99	0.99	0.68

After missing almost all of 2008 due to injuries, Lebron burst onto the prospect scene in 2009. His upper 90s velocity returned and his slider was as sharp as ever. Furthermore, Lebron showed improved command. While in his last healthy season in 2007 Lebron walked a batter an inning, he was able to cut that rate in half in 2009. If Lebron can harness his command a little more his electric stuff (according to BA he was second amongst all relievers in batting average against and his 13.6 K/9 was 5th) should allow him to handle closing duties in the major leagues. Lebron would be well served by at least half a year in AAA to work on his command, but his stuff will make it tough for the Orioles to hold him back for long. His injuries are an obvious cause for concern, as is his flyball tendency. An additional concern I have is that prospects with big fastballs are often able to blow away minor league hitters but struggle in the big leagues when they fail to command secondary stuff and allow big league hitters to sit on the fastball. For this reason I don’t think Lebron will profile as a closer, but he is still a good prospect. Lebron reminds me a lot of Jose Arrendondo. Grade B-

10. Mychal Givens, SS, 19.11, Drafted 2nd Round 09, Florida HS

Year	League	PA	BB%	SO%	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2B/HR	SB/CS
2009	DNP- Signed Late

A two-way standout in high school, Givens had many scouts intrigued by his potential on the mound. His fastball reached the upper 90s, but his low arm-slot rendered his pitching career likely to culminate in the bullpen. At short Givens has all the tools to stay at the position long-term. Obviously he has enough arm for the position, and his range and hands could be plus tools. At the plate Givens is more projection at this point, but unlike many high school hitters Givens shows a patient approach at the plate. He has good bat speed which leads scouts to project he will hit for some power down the road. Because he signed right before the deadline Givens will not begin his pro career until 2010. It is unlikely that he will earn a full season assignment, although it is not out of the question. Without any pro data to go on it is tough to get a read on Givens, but he has the tools to be a very productive big league player. Grade B-

Chapman Defects

Birdfan01 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:20:39 -0000

Ardolis Chapman, a 21 year-old Cuban lefty, recently defected from Cuba and reportedly wants to sign with a major league team. Many of you will remember Chapman from the WBC, where he showcased an upper 90s FB. How much do you guys think he is worth, who will he go to, and is he major league ready? Very interesting development. My initial guess is that he goes to the White Sox. The Sox have been looking for SP help, and they have been very active signing recent Cuban defectors Dyan Viciedo and Alexei Ramirez.

The "Crow"

Birdfan01 — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 18:47:32 -0000

In a chat over at minorleagueball, concerning the Felix Pie trade, I said that I thought that Crowley would have a very positive influence on Pie. I was immediately dared to say this at camdenchat. I'm guessing a lot of you are not as fond of the Crow as a I am, but why? The man helped create an offense that produced way over its head this last season! And it wasn't like the offense was scoring all these runs with a line-up of all-stars.

Most Overrated Farm System

Birdfan01 — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 04:52:27 -0000

Who do you guys think is the most overrated system out there? I just got my Baseball America Prospect Handbook today, and one of the first things I do with each year's edition is leaf to the system rankings. While BA is hardly the only publication that is enamored with the A's system I still found myself thinking that the A's system is overrated. The pitching certainly looks great, but they get a lot of credit for having their share of good hitting prospects and I don't think this is deserved. Cunningham looks like a 5, but Cardenas, Carter, Weeks, and Doolittle all seem to have some big holes in their game. I'm sure a lot of you out there will disagree, but I'm interested in hearing the varying opinions on systems out there. As a side note I think the Red Sox are the most underrated system (although I think the A's system is stronger than the Sox's)

21-30

Birdfan01 — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 19:24:05 -0000

21. Garabez Rosa- SS, 19, Grade- C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
RC (GCL)	185	330	8	4	1	26	339	470	809	4	2
NY Penn	20	250	0	0	2		318	250	568	0	1

To be honest I don’t know much about Rosa besides his stats. I haven’t seen him play and I have not read anything about him. The Orioles do not have a very good track record of finding talent in Latin America, but they may have something in Rosa, who they signed out of the Dominican Republic. At 6’2” Rosa is very big for a shortstop, but he only weighs 166 lbs! As he grows into his frame it is possible that he could outgrow the position, but he could also grow into some power. He already shows a very strong hit tool, hitting .330 in the Gulf Coast League. However he is far from a polished offensive product. One look at his stats shows that he has very little plate discipline, walking only 3 times in over 200 at-bats. It will be very hard to hit for a high average while consistently extending the strike zone.

Rosa is likely too raw for a full-season assignment and should play in the NY Penn League in 2009. I’m very intrigued to read more about him, and hopefully see him play in 2009.

22. Wilfredo Perez- LHP, 24, Grade- C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Hi A (Car)	56.1	2.88	44	30	69	5	1.88	11	218
AA (Eas)	23.1	2.31	16	8	23	1	1.14	9	195

Perez is another one of my favorite prospects in the O’s system. Perez is extremely slender at only 145 pounds. He is a left-handed reliever who throws a fastball consistently 89-91. He combines that with a filthy curveball. As his very strong batting average against and K/9 number indicate Wilfredo can be a hitter’s nightmare, often making hitters looks silly.

Perez struggles with control and command, and is not particular dominant against lefties. Lefties hit 253 against Perez in 2008 compared to a 192 clip by righties. This trend held true in 2007 as well. Unfortunately for the Orioles, unless Perez improves against lefties he will not be effective as a lefty specialist. With that being said Perez has tremendous stuff and should be a useful piece in a major league bullpen.

23. Bradley Bergesen- RHP, 23, C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Hi A (Car)	17.1	2.08	15	6	15	2	3.38	7.79	227
AA (Eas)	148	3.22	143	27	72	11	1.38	4.37	253

The Orioles’ pitcher of the year in 2008 Bergesen had a tremendous year. Prior to 2008 Bergesen had struggled as a pro, since being drafted in the 4th round of the 2005 draft. Bergesen features a low 90’s FB, often sitting at 90-91 with solid life. He complements his heater with a slider and a change. The slider is more advanced than the change at this point. Bergesen pitches to contact and tries to keep the ball on the ground, but his GO/AO ratios have been hovering just below 1.5 the last two years. That is good, but not great, especially for a pitcher who makes his living by keeping the ball on the ground.

While its clear that Bergesen is not as good as his 3.22 ERA indicates, I think he can find a place in the majors. Many of his detractors point to his 4.4 K/9 in AA this year and argue that is simply too low to find success in the majors. While that is true Bergesen is still young enough to improve that number. If he can raise that to about 5.5 he could fit as a 5 starter who lives by keeping the ball on the ground. If that doesn’t happen I still think Bergesen could fit as a long man out of the pen. Bergesen will move to AAA in 2009, and will likely make his major league debut at some point during the season.

24. Justin Turner- 2B, 24, C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
Hi A (FSL)	136	316	8	0	12	19	384	390	774	3	1
AA (Sou)	280	289	14	8	33	54	359	432	792	2	1

AFL 89 337 7 1 4 18 362 449

Turner was acquired, along with Ryan Freel and Brandon Warring, from the Reds in the Ramon Hernandez trade. Turner is a grinder who doesn’t posses a ton of tools, but finds a way to get the job done. He doesn’t have much power, but everywhere he went in 2008 he hit for a high average, including the Arizona Fall League. He doesn’t walk much, but he makes a lot of contact, and gets on base enough to profile at the top of the order. Unfortunately he doesn’t have much speed so it is more likely that turner could find himself at the bottom of the order in the big leagues.

Turner is just average defensively at second, and he lacks the arm and range to play short which hurts his ability to be a utility man, but he should have value nonetheless. I don’t think he has the tools to hack it at 2nd full-time in the big leagues, but he is close to big-league ready, and could fill in for a couple months if Roberts is dealt.

25. John Mariotti- RHP, 24, C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Lo A (SAL)	33.2	3.74	27	7	26	2	5.64	6.95	213

Mariotti is a prospect that I think is a major sleeper. The Orioles’ 18th round in 2007 out of Coastal Carolina College. He was old for the sally league, but had an absolutely ridiculous GO/AO ratio. That 5.64 is not a typo, and last year it was even higher at 5.92! He battled through injuries in 2008 compiling only 33.2 innings, but he should be healthy in 2009, and I’m very excited to see what he can do if he can stay healthy for a full year. If he stays healthy he should at least be able to fit into a major league pen as a right-handed specialist who can come in and keep the ball on the ground.

26. Jason Berken- RHP, 25, C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (Eas)	145.2	3.58	141	38	125	9	1.03	7.72	255

Berken pitched alongside Tillman, Hendandez, and Bergesen this year at AA. The oldest member of the quartet, Berken put up solid numbers including an impressive 7.7 K/9. Berken was the Orioles’ 6th round pick in 2006 draft out of Clemson. At only 6’0” Berken does not have a durable starters frame, but since signing Berken has been a workhorse. Throwing 161.3 innings in 2007 and 145.2 last season. Berken profiles as a back-end of the rotation innings eater.

He gets outs with control and command at this point, posting an impressive 2.3 BB/9, rather than with pure stuff. Berken sits in the low 90s with his FB, features an average slider, and a change. Some may argue that Berken is a better prospect than Bergesen due to his similar success at AA, and with a much better ability to miss bats. But Bergesen is two years younger, and I think long-term he has the better chance of cutting it in a starting role.

27. Greg Miclat- SS, 21, C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
NY Penn	55	291	2	0	8	13	391	327	718	3	2

Miclat is a favorite sleeper among many Oriole fans. The O’s 5th round pick out of Virginia in this years draft is a solid defensive short stop, and possesses some good speed. He suffered from an arm injury in college, so the O’s were very cautious with him in his pro debut, but all reports are that he will be 100% healthy in 2009.

While he didn’t show much power in college he is not viewed as a slap hitter. The University of Virginia has a notoriously big home park. Furthermore, their coaches preach using the whole field and using an inside-out swing. Those two factors could be responsible for why Miclat hasn’t shown much power. He will never have a lot of power, but should be a guy who can drive the ball into the gaps. He has very good plate discipline, and understands his game, trying to get on-base and use his speed.

Miclat, besides Rosa, is the only legitimate SS prospect the Orioles have. He is the best defensive SS in the organization, and should start 2009 at Lo A Delmarva.

28. Kyle Hudson- CF, 22, C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
NY Penn	37	216	1	0	8	12	356	243	599	4	3

Hudson is another exceptional athlete from the Orioles’ 2008 draft. The 4th rounder out of the University of Illinois, Hudson played on the Illini football team where he returned punts. He has top end speed, and because of that he has tremendous range in center. He reminds me a lot of Juan Pierre. He has very little power, but he understands that and tries to keep the ball on the ground and use his speed.

Unfortunately for Hudson and the Orioles he broke his wrist sliding headfirst into second this year. He should be healthy for 2009, but wrist injuries are always tricky, and can linger. Hopefully he will be healthy in 2009. With his speed he should be valuable as a defensive replacement and pinch runner, even if the bat doesn’t come around.

29. Richard Zagone- LHP, 22, C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
NY Penn	65.1	2.89	57	14	79	2	1.63	10.88	236

Zagone put up great numbers in the NY Penn League after being taken in the 6th round out of the University of Missouri. Although his numbers look great, that is more a reflection of an advanced pitcher exploiting younger competition than it is of Zagone’s stuff. Zagone sits in the upper 80s with his fastball, and complements that with an ordinary slider and a change. Although his stuff isn’t great, the fastball has some life, and he has very good command, which helps his stuff play up.

As Zagone advances that K/9 will surely decrease, but with his advanced pitchability he could continue to find success. Zagone could profile as a backend of the rotation starter, but it is more likely that he could find himself in a major league bullpen. He had a lot of success against lefties in his pro debut, and could be rise through the system quickly if the Orioles decide to move him to the pen.

30. Matt Angle- CF, 23, C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
Low A (SAL)	478	287	22	4	71	86	385	379	764	37	11

One look at Angle’s numbers shows you what type of player he is. He is a grinder who tries to get on-base and use his speed to set the table for his offense. He has very solid plate discipline and an advanced approach at the plate. He has good but not great speed, but gets solid jumps on the base-paths allowing him to steal at a respectable 77% last year. He is a very good bunter, and has some gap power. He played last season as a 22 year old in Lo A, so he was a bit old for the league.

While I don’t think Angle has the tools to hold down a starting job in the majors, his speed and discipline could make him a valuable 4th or 5th outfielder. The former 7th round pick out of Ohio St. has impressed as a pro, and I’m interested to see how he holds up against better competition as he moves forward.

11-20

Birdfan01 — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 19:21:07 -0000

11. Kam Mickolio- RHP, 24, Grade- C+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (EAS)	38.1	4.7	39	22	40	2	1.7	9.39	262
AAA (INTL)	20	1.8	13	9	23	0	1.57	10.35	173
MLB	7.2	5.87	8	4	8	2	0.67	9.39	267

When one looks at Mickolio’s numbers, ranking him at number 11 seems way too high, but his numbers tell only half of his story. Mickolio went to a high school in Montana that did not offer baseball, and only began playing baseball the summer after his junior year for an American Legion team. Since being drafted by the Mariners in the 18th round of the 2006 draft Mickolio has made tremendous strides for someone with such a limited baseball background.

Mickolio features a true upper 90s fastball, a sweeping slider, and a change that is little more than a show-me pitch at this point. The slider tends to flatten out, but can be devastating when it gets a little depth to it. One of the reasons Mickolio is such an intriguing prospect is that he stands a gigantic 6’10! He combines this huge frame with a very unorthodox delivery. His front foot strides towards the back of a right-handed hitter, instead of towards the plate, and then he throws from a ¾ arm slot. The result is that the ball is released way behind a right-handed hitter and cuts across the pate. This makes the ball very hard to pick up out of Mickolio’s hand. One might suspect that this unorthodox delivery would make Mickolio susceptible to lefties, but the difference in his splits is fairly negligible. Lefties hit .248 against Mickolio as opposed to .222, and they even strike out at a slightly higher rate.

Some project that Mickolio could eventually find himself in a closer’s role, but I don’t think his command will ever be good enough to handle the closer’s role. Furthermore, even though lefties have not yet caused Mickolio a tremendous amount of trouble they certainly could at the major league level. I see Mickolio settling into a 7th/8th inning long-term and having a very successful career.

12. Nolan Reimold- RF/LF, 25, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
AA (Eas)	507	284	29	25	63	82	367	501	868
AFL	92	261	8	4	11	20	352	478	830

In my opinion Reimold is the most overrated prospect in the Orioles’ system. Although he put up pretty good numbers this year at AA, it is certainly worth noting that he was 25. Reimold reminds me a bit of Brady Clark, the former Brewers outfielder, in that both are righties with a mechanical swing. Watching Reimold play he lacks plate coverage to drive balls to the opposite field. Advance scouts should exploit this when he makes it to the majors. Furthermore, while he is pretty athletic and has an average arm he is not a good defender.

Although Reimold has his share of shortcomings, he has value. He has good plate discipline, and pretty good pitch recognition skills which allow him to make solid contact. Furthermore, at 6’4 he has tremendous power, as evidenced by 57 extra-base hits this year at AA. He hits lefties well, although he did not have a tremendous amount of success against them this year. Throughout his minor league career he has showed good power against lefties, and I think down the road I think he will ultimately become an outfielder who platoons against lefties.

13. Bobby Bundy- RHP, 19, Grade- C+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
RC GCL	2	9	5	0	4	1	0	18	455

Coming into the 2008 season, some projected Bundy as a possible first round pick. However when Bundy tore a ligament in his knee during a basketball game that opportunity went out the window. Pitching with a knee brace Bundy saw his velocity drop from the mid-90s to the low 90’s and upper 80’s, according to Baseball America. This drop in velocity combined with a commitment to Arkansas caused Bundy to slip all the way to the 8th round where he received a 600,000 from the Orioles.

Early reports are that Bundy’s velocity has returned. Combine that solid fastball with a true 12-6 curveball, and Bundy appears to be a very good prospect, and a possible draft-day steal. I am interested to see whether the Orioles believe he is advanced to handle a full-season assignment in 2009.

14. Xavier Avery- CF, 19, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
RC (GCL)	175	280	8	0	10	51	333	337	670	13	3

Avery is one of the best athletes, not just in the Orioles’ system, but in all of baseball. An exception high school football player he was a 4-star recruit set to attend Georgia before he turned pro for 900,000, as the second round pick of the Orioles. The Orioles envision Avery becoming a dynamic player who uses his speed to play an exceptional centerfield, and to wreck havoc on the basepaths. However he is not just a slap hitter. Although he did not hit a homer as a professional, he is projected to develop the ability to drive the ball as gets more and more baseball experience.

As Avery’s numbers indicate he is extremely raw. He struck out 51 times in only 175 at-bats, so obviously his pitch-recognition skills need to improve. Although his numbers do not seem to be overly impressive, when one considers the magnitude of the jump between the competition that Avery faced in high-school and what he faced in professional ball, the 280 average and 333 on-base percentage that Avery posted are pretty impressive.

Avery isn’t advanced enough to go to full-season ball, but should play at Aberdeen in the NY Penn league next season.

15. Chorye Spoone- RHP, 23, Grade- C+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (EAS)	41.1	4.57	40	27	32	4	2.38	6.97	252

Spoone may have had the most disappointing 2008 of any Oriole farmhand. Coming into the year Spoone was a very popular breakout candidate, and rightfully so. When Spoone is healthy he misses bats with a mid-90s FB with good late life, and a sharp downer curve. Not only does Spoone do a good job of missing bats, but he also does an exceptional job of keeping the ball on the ground.

Unfortunately for Spoone he tore his labrum early in 2008. The labrum tear is one of the hardest injuries for pitchers to comeback from. Many pitchers who suffer the labrum tear never regain their former velocity. I have not heard any report on how Spoone is progressing in his rehab, but even if everything goes according to plan Spoone will not be pitching in games until July or August.

Before the injury I would have given Spoone a B, but anything more than a C+ is too high with the severity of his injury.

16. Tyler Henson- 3B, 21, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
Lo A (SAL)	502	265	25	11	25	121	310	392	702	20	3
Hawaiian WL	124	266	13	1	25	44	384	444	828	3	1

Henson is one of my favorite prospects in the Orioles’ system. An exceptional athlete- he was the starting quarterback on the state championship winning high school team in Oklahoma, and he started at point on the basketball team. He was drafted as a shortstop, but has moved to third since signing. He has the arm, range, and adequate hands to man the hot corner, but there is some question as to whether he will develop the bat for the position.

I think he will. His plate discipline obviously needs to improve. He walked only 25 times in 502 at bats at low A. That lack of discipline will be exploited at higher levels. Henson did match that walk total in only 124 at bats in the Hawaiian winter league, but his discipline deteriorated as time went on. It is encouraging to see that Henson seems to be working to improve his plate-discipline. If Henson can learn to control the zone he should grow into a solid offensive player. He possess a wiry strong frame, similar to that of Ryan Braun. He doesn’t have the power of Braun, but he does have the ability to hit the ball out to any part of the park. In addition to solid raw power Henson is an exceptional base-stealer. He isn’t a burner, but he picks his spots well as evidence by his extremely high success rate.

It will be interesting to see where Henson plays next season. Billy Rowell will most likely return to Frederick in 2009, so unless he moves to right or first Henson will be blocked. A repeat of Delmarva would not be the worst thing for Henson as he could hone his discipline, but he is advanced enough to hack it at high A. It might take Henson a while to reach his ceiling, but I think will eventually become a 5 at third.

17. L.J. Hoes- 2B, 19, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
RC (GCL)	159	308	4	1	30	22	416	390	806	10	0

Another very good athlete, the Orioles selected Hoes in the third round this year’s draft. Hoes was thought to be a tough sign as he was committed to UNC, but he may have given the Orioles a bit of a hometown discount, Hoes is from the DC area, signing for 490,000.

In high school Hoes played center, but he lacks the top end speed to play there in the pros, so after signing the Orioles moved him to second. Learning to turn the double play and some of the other finer arts of second may take some time for Hoes to perfect, but his bat seems to be very advanced for a high school kid. He has a tremendous eye at the plate, walking 30 times in only 159 at-bats. He also appears to be an extremely proficient base-stealer. He doesn’t have top-end speed, but he wasn’t caught as a pro, stealing ten bases. According to Baseball America Hoes doesn’t have any plus tool, but he has average tools across the board. While he hit for a high average as a pro, he didn’t show much power, slugging only 390.

Hoes is very advanced for a high school hitter and could handle a full-season assignment. It is more likely, however, that the Orioles stay cautious and put him I the NY Penn league. If Hoes learns to play second, and shows some power he could quickly become a very good prospect.

18. Ryan Adams- 2B, 22, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
Low A (SAL)	448	308	26	11	36	109	367	462	829	12	5

Adams can flat out hit. The Orioles took him out of a Louisiana high school in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft. Adams has great hand-eye coordination, and shows a very good ability to square the ball up, as evidenced by his line-drive percentage of 18. He also show surprising pop, 42 extra-base hits in 448 at-bats. Adams needs to work on plate discipline and pitch recognition. He struck out in almost a quarter of his at bats which is way too much, especially for someone who does not profile as a power hitter.

In addition to his high K-rate, his defense at second was nothing short of atrocious in 2008. He committed 46 errors in only 96 games! There is some silver lining in that most of those errors were of the throwing variety, which seems to be more correctable. Adams is fairly athletic and could move to center if his defensive woes continue.

I really like Adams’ bat a lot. I think he will straighten out his defense enough to be adequate, and I think he can hit around .300 at the major league level. He’ll have enough power to make his below-average defense acceptable.

19. Tony Butler- LHP, 21, Grade- C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
LoA (SAL)	55	4.42	59	11	44	7	0.84	7.2	273

Butler was acquired from the Mariners in the Erik Bedard deal. At 6’7” the southpaw is a very imposing figure on the mound. The problem for Butler in 2008 was that he was not able to stay on the mound. He returned from injury in June, only to return to the DL by mid June for the rest of the season. I believe he suffered from tendonitis, but I am not sure. At any rate the injury is not supposed to affect 2009.

When Butler is going right he combines a low 90’s FB, a big breaking curve, and a change. The change lags behind the other two pitches at this point. Reports are that Butler’s velocity was down a couple mph this season, but that could be due to the injury. He showed a strong K/BB ratio of 4 in 2008, an encouraging sign going forward.

Butler is mostly projection right now. With his big frame he could grow into a couple mph and really come on strong in 2009. Furthermore, Butler seemed to have better command in 2008 than he had shown previously. The velo drop is a cause for concern though, and if he can’t regain it, it will be hard for him to have success at higher levels. Butler has the ceiling to fit in as high as 2nd or 3rd in a major league rotation. Although the chances that he reaches that are small.

20. Oliver Drake- RHP, 22, Grade- C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
RC (APP)	11.2	0.77	7	2	11	1	0.53	9	167
NY Penn	10.1	0.87	9	1	13	0	1.11	11.32	214

Drake could have been a draft-day steal. He fell all the way to the 43rd round as a draft-eligible sophomore. Because he attended the Naval Academy many teams did not think he would be able to sign. Obviously he received his release, and had a tremendous pro debut. He pitched in relief allowing a total of two earned runs in 23 innings.

John is obviously a big fan as he gave Drake a C+, but I think that is a little too bullish. He was pitching against younger competition, and was pitching out of relief. I have not see Drake, but Baseball America reports that he features a low 90’s FB with good life, a plus slider, and a rudimentary curve and change.

From his numbers Drake obviously has a chance. At 6’4” he has the durable frame to become a useful starter, but he lacks the third pitch at this point in time. I don’t feel comfortable giving drake a higher grade until he succeeds as a starter, against older competition, and there is a bigger sample size. Drake should start 2009 at Lo A as a starter.

Orioles Prospects 1-10

Birdfan01 — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 19:17:57 -0000

For Comparison’s Sake:

Baseball America: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267134.html

John’s Top 20: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/18/665005/baltimore-orioles-top-20-p

Note- All ages are of opening day this year

1. Matt Wieters- C, 22, Bats S, Grade- A

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
Hi A (Car)	229	345	8	15	44	47	448	576	1024	1	2
AA (Eas)	208	365	14	12	38		460	625	1085	1	0
AFL	73	301	5	1	12	16	407	438	845	1	0

I won't spend a lot of time on Matt, because everyone on this site already knows that he is one of the best prospects in baseball. Drafted out of Georgia Tech with the 5th Overall pick, in the 2007 draft, after being inexplicably passed up by 4 teams, Matt has done nothing but rake since signing. At the plate Matt profiles as a middle of the order run producer. Wieters controls the strike zone extremely well, as he has walked more than he has stuck out as a professional, but does not seem passive at the plate and pounces on mistakes. The switch-hitting catcher shows prodigious power and a sound swing from both sides of the plate.

Defensively Matt has drawn rave reviews for the way in which he has handled his pitchers. He has a cannon for an arm, and routinely posts pop times at or below 2 seconds flat. His arm strength has never been in question, as he was the close at Georgia Tech, having his fastball routinely clocked in the low-90s. At 6'5" 230 scouts show some concern as to how Wieters' huge frame will hold up behind the plate, but for now it seems that he is capable of playing above average defense behind the plate.

After trading Ramon Hernandez earlier this off-season the stage is set for Wieters to make his major league debut. The only question now is whether that debut will come on opening day, or whether to Orioles will opt to save some service time and start him at AAA to begin the 2009 campaign. Regardless of where he starts Wieters is the front runner for American Rookie of the Year.

2. Chris Tillman- RHP, 20, Grade- A-

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (Eas)	135.2	3.18	115	64	154	10	0.82	10.2	227

Tillman, acquired from Seattle in the Eric Bedard deal, had a huge year in AA. While he catches a lot of flak from many posters on this board due to shaky FB command and a BB/9 rate of 4.3, I think many need to take a step back and put things in perspective. Tillman pitched most of the year as the youngest pitcher in the Eastern League and dominated. Striking out more than a batter and inning and holding opponents to a measly .227 batting average against. While improving his FB command will be imperative to his success at higher levels it is by no means abnormal for a 20 year old to struggle with command. Locating his FB more effectively should also improve Tillman's GO/AO ratio, which was too low at .82 this past season.

Tillman features a prototypical starter's body at 6'5". He only currently weighs 195 pounds, and scouts are salivating at the prospect that he could pick up a little velo as his body matures. Tillman currently sits in the low to mid 90's, features a devastating curveball, and a change that is progressing. Aside from his fastball command, the only thing that is holding Tillman back is developing more confidence is his change to give him the three pitch arsenal essential to a starter's success in the big leagues.

Look for the Orioles to move Tillman along very carefully. They are very mindful of not repeating the same mistakes made with other Orioles' pitching prospects such as Hayden Penn and Adam Loewen, who were rushed through the minors. Ideally Tillman would get at least a full year at AAA, but with the Orioles' lack of pitching at the major league level their hand could be forced, and Tillman could debut sometime late in the year.

3. Brian Matusz- LHP, 22, Grade- B+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AFL	26.2	4.73	26	7	31	6	1.67	10.5	250

The Orioles plucked the left-handed starter out of the University of San Diego with the 4th overall pick in the 2008 draft. Just like Tillman, at 6'5" 200 Matusz possesses an ideal pitcher's frame, but he is more polished than Tillman. Matusz already features 4 pitches grading out as at least average. Matusz's fastball sits in the low 90's, and while it does not light up radar guns it has a fair amount of life to it. Many scouts believe Matusz did not use his FB enough in college, so like many college pitchers he may look to use it a bit more as a pro, now that he no longer has to contend with metal bats. Matusz also uses a curve and a slider, the curve rating as a plus pitch, and the slider as average or slightly above depending upon who you listen to. Matusz's best pitch is his change which he throws with solid arm speed and shows good depth. Many scouts who are bullish on Matusz compare him to another lefty from Southern California, Cole Hamels.

While few scouts question his stuff, buth there are a few concerns about Matusz's delivery. Baseball America's draft preview described Matusz's arm action as: "slightly awkward", and were concerned with the fact that he often lands on a stiff front leg. Matusz has been durable in college, and he certainly has the frame to handle a starter's workload, so many believe he will hold up physically (knock on wood).

Matusz's starting point has been the subject of much debate. Despite the rust, in the 7 appearances Matusz made in the Arizona Fall League, he pitched fairly well striking out 10.5 per 9. This success against very good competition, in a league typically unforgiving of pitchers, has led many to believe that Matusz is advanced enough to start the year at AA. His assignment will be dictated by his performance in spring training, but with no rush I forsee Matusz starting in Frederick and being promoted to AA at the Carolina League all-star break.

4. Jake Arrieta- RHP, 23, Grade- B+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Hi A (Car)	113	2.87	80	51	120	7	1.14	9.56	199

Arrieta entered his junior season at Texas Christian University with 1st round aspirations, but when his velo dropped during the season he slid to the 5th round where the Orioles happy selected him, paying him a bonus of 1.1 million. Since this signing Arrieta has done nothing, but make that signing bonus look like a bargain. He went to the AFL after signing and did not allow a run while pitching in relief. Building off that success this year Arrieta dominated the Carolina Leauge, and played on USA's Olympic team this summer, and was the only member of the team who played below AA during the season.

Arrieta's velo has returned as a pro. His FB sat in the mid 90's this season. Coupling that with a devastating slider, and a change-up that that shows the potential to become above average and Arrieta shows the potential to have 3 plus pitches. At 6'4" 225 Arrieta not only has the ability to handle Tillman and Matusz in the post, but also possesses a big durable pitchers body.

A recent report by Roch Kubatko, a local sportswriter, said that the Orioles would be more willing to deal Tillman than Arrieta. Obviously the Orioles are not in a position that dictates trading either would be a good idea, but I find it hard to believe that the O's are higher on Arrieta than Tillman. With Arrieta's success in the Carolina league and then in Beijing he should begin 2009 in AA, and could be promoted to AAA before the year is out.

5. Brandon Erbe- RHP, 21, Grade- B

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Hi A (Car)	150.2	4.3	120	50	151	21	0.75	9	216

The Orioles selected the local product in the 3rd round of the 2005 draft, out of McDonough High School in Owings Mills, MD. Erbe is one of the most erratic pitchers in all of the minors. One game he will be dominant, the next he will get lit. Much of Erbe's long-term success will be dictated by how much consistency he can generate. He has all the physical tools he needs to be a solid major league starter- a fastball that consistently sits in the low-to-mid 90s, a slider, that at times, can absolutely fall off the table, and a developing change. I was in attendance when Erbe no hit Wilmington over the 7 innings he pitched. That night he had three major league pitches. As Erbe moves forward he needs to learn to get through outings when he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Like a lot of young pitchers Erbe needs to improve his command. While 3 BB/9 isn’t bad, Erbe struggled to command his fastball throughout the season, and when he left it up it was hit hard, as his 21 HRs allowed attests to. This large number of homers led to an ERA that was higher than it should have been. According to minorleaguesplits, when luck is accounted for Erbe should have only given up 12 HRs, and his FIP falls from 4.29 to 3.53. Furthermore, Erbe has not been homer prone in the past, giving up 14 last year in 114 innings, and only 1 in over 90 innings in 2006. This evidence suggests that Erbe is not homer prone and merely suffered from some bad luck this year.

6. Brandon Snyder- 1B, 22, Grade- B-

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
Hi A (Car)	435	315	33	13	29	83	358	490	848
AFL	63	349	8	4	6	9	431	667	1098

Snyder, who the Orioles selected in the first round of the 2005 draft, had an offensive resurgence in 2008. After winning the Hawaiian Winter League batting title in the off-season, Snyder built off that success and hit well over 300 in both the Carolina League and the Arizona Fall League. Drafted as a catcher and later moved to third, Snyder had failed to live up to his first round billing with either his glove or his bat until this season. While his permanent move to first this season means that he will have to really hit to have value going forward, his bat has the potential to play at first in the big leagues.

Snyder has a good swing that generates line-drives to all fields. According to minorleaguesplits.com Snyder has put up line-drive % of 21.4 and 17.4 the last two seasons. Some question whether Snyder will ever develop the power necessary to play first base, as he only hit 13 HRs this year, but as Snyder gets stronger and learns to drive the ball a bit more he should be able to turn some of his 2Bs, 33 this year, into HRs. The other major question surrounding Snyder is his lack of plate discipline. He only took 29 walks this year, and seeing him play several times this season he often had trouble with off-speed stuff down-and-out of the zone. At 22 he will move up to AA next year, and if he does not develop an ability to control the strike-zone he will be exploited. Snyder’s performance at AA will be extremely telling. If he can improve his pitch-recognition skills, learn to take a few more walks, and turn a few doubles into homers he will become a very solid prospect.

Snyder profiles as a below average defensive first baseman who should hit around 300 with 20 homers.

7. Troy Patton- LHP, 23, Grade- B-

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (Tex)	102.1	2.99	96	33	68	10	NA	5.96	238
AAA (PCL)	49	4.59	44	11	25	5	NA	4.59	230

MAJ 12.2 3.55 10 4 8 3 NA 5.68 208

- Stats from 2007, Patton did not pitch in 2008 due to injury

Patton was the best prospect that the Orioles got back from Houston in the Miguel Tejada trade, but he quickly went down with a torn labrum in spring training. After the trade he was ranked as the Orioles’ 3rd prospect by Baseball America. Before the injury many thought that Patton had a good shot to make the Orioles’ rotation. Patton doesn’t have tremendous stuff- a FB that sits in the low 90’s, a slider, and a change that shows good life, but his pitches all play up because of his very solid command. The labrum tear is a very scary injury for pitchers as it often saps them of some velo, but early reports are that Patton is feeling good.

Looking at his numbers some may be concerned with his low K/9 rates, but he was pitching as a 21 year old all the way up to the big leagues. In 2006 he posted a K/9 of 8.6 in Hi A and Lo A, against competition closer to his age.

After the injury caused Patton to miss all of 2008, the Orioles may elect to give him some time in AAA, but if he is healthy he will certainly be one of the Orioles’ better starting options. He probably doesn’t have the stuff to be more than a 3, but should be a solid starter who keeps his team in games.

8. Billy Rowell- 3B, 20, Grade- B-

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
Hi A (Car)	375	248	24	7	36	104	315	368	683

I’m well aware that this grade will be perceived as being way too generous, but I’m a big believer in Rowell’s bat. As a pro Rowell has not yet shown the power that made him a first round pick in the 2006 draft. Last year Rowell put up a slugging percentage of .426, and this year that dropped to a measly 368. Although the numbers don’t support it Rowell has a tremendous offensive ceiling. Hi He has a sweet swing from the left side, although it can get a bit long at times, that produces light tower power. When Rowell squares the ball up it makes a different sound coming off his bat. Even though he is extremely young, playing the entire year at 19, he shows a willingness to go the other way.

I think a lot of Rowell’s offensive struggles this season should be chalked up to the fact that he was simply in over his head in the Carolina league. At 19 he should have repeated Low A, instead he was rushed before he was ready, and it showed. His swing needs to be shortened just a tad, and he needs to learn to turn on some inside mistakes.

Some of Rowell’s deficiencies can be attributed to his youth, but some cannot. He is a bit of a butcher at third, lacking both the hands and range to play there going forward. He has a very strong arm, so I think a move to right may be his long-term home. He could end up, defensively, very similarly to Aubrey Huff, who plays some third, first, and earlier in his career, right. In addition to defensive issues there have been reports that Rowell may have some makeup issues. Apparently he was reluctant to give up his personal hitting coach, and that did not sit well with the Orioles.

I’m not ready to give up on Rowell. I don’t think he will ever be the star many envisioned when he was drafted, but I still think the bat will play, whether that is at 1st, DH, or a corner outfield spot is yet to be determined. It’s easy to forget, but the kid just turned 20. He’s 6’5” and just growing into his frame, give him time.

9. Zach Britton- LHP, 21, Grade- B-

League	IP	ERA	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
LoA (SAL)	147.1	3.12	49	114	9	2.81	6.96	219

The O’s plucked Britton out of a Texas high school in the 3rd round of the 2006 draft. The 6’2” lefty features a fastball that sits in the low 90s, a solid curveball, and an emerging change. I have not seen Britton pitch, but judging from his very solid 2.81 GO/AO ratio, his fastball must have good downward movement. Combine his ability to keep the ball on the ground with an average ability miss bats, and Britton looks to be a very solid prospect. Although, according to minorleaguesplits.com, Britton was lucky to post a batting average against of only 219, Ks and groundouts are a recipe for success at any level.

Another encouraging sign in Britton’s statistics is his ability to dominate lefties. Lefties hit .176 against Britton, and Britton posted a K/9 of 9.24 against lefthanders. This seems to indicate that even if Britton’s change does not progress enough to give him a three-pitch arsenal he could be a useful part of a major league bullpen.

Britton will move to Hi A next year, and he will need to maintain his K/9 rate to continue to have success, because anything less than seven at high A would be cause for concern. Britton profiles as a 3 or 4 starter down the road.

10. David Hernandez- RHP, 23, Grade- C+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (EAS)	141	2.68	114	71	166	10	0.74	10.6	217

Hernandez is one of the more interesting prospects in all of the minor leagues. He put up exceptional numbers this year at AA, most notably winning the Eastern league strikeout crown with 166 Ks in 141 innings. Although Hernandez has put up great strikeout numbers his stuff, according to most scouts, doesn’t indicate that he should generate so many whiffs. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he features a good slider, and a change.

Hernandez’s control has been a problem throughout his career. His BB/9 of 4.5 this year needs to be improved. Although his ERA was much lower this year than last (2.68 vs. 4.95), it appears that some of that has to do with luck. His walk rate shot up almost 2 full walks per 9 from 2.7 last year, and it seems that his ERA was kept down by a 217 batting average against. That BAA doesn’t seem sustainable as his career mark is around 250. Furthermore, I am concerned about his low GO/AO ratio. A fly-ball pitcher with a high walk rate seems like a recipe for the 3-run homer.

Still his K/9 rate is extremely impressive. Unless Hernandez can improve his control I think he is destined for a role in the bullpen. He could be very effective there with his FB slider combo, but with the Orioles’ lack of starters they will give Hernandez every opportunity to start. Hernandez is a wildcard who could surprise us all and make it as a starter. He will begin 2009 at AAA, and could make his major league debut at some point during the year.