SB Nation User Blog: Birdfan01

Chapman Defects

Birdfan01 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:20:39 -0000

Ardolis Chapman, a 21 year-old Cuban lefty, recently defected from Cuba and reportedly wants to sign with a major league team. Many of you will remember Chapman from the WBC, where he showcased an upper 90s FB. How much do you guys think he is worth, who will he go to, and is he major league ready? Very interesting development. My initial guess is that he goes to the White Sox. The Sox have been looking for SP help, and they have been very active signing recent Cuban defectors Dyan Viciedo and Alexei Ramirez.

The "Crow"

Birdfan01 — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 18:47:32 -0000

In a chat over at minorleagueball, concerning the Felix Pie trade, I said that I thought that Crowley would have a very positive influence on Pie. I was immediately dared to say this at camdenchat. I'm guessing a lot of you are not as fond of the Crow as a I am, but why? The man helped create an offense that produced way over its head this last season! And it wasn't like the offense was scoring all these runs with a line-up of all-stars.

Most Overrated Farm System

Birdfan01 — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 04:52:27 -0000

Who do you guys think is the most overrated system out there? I just got my Baseball America Prospect Handbook today, and one of the first things I do with each year's edition is leaf to the system rankings. While BA is hardly the only publication that is enamored with the A's system I still found myself thinking that the A's system is overrated. The pitching certainly looks great, but they get a lot of credit for having their share of good hitting prospects and I don't think this is deserved. Cunningham looks like a 5, but Cardenas, Carter, Weeks, and Doolittle all seem to have some big holes in their game. I'm sure a lot of you out there will disagree, but I'm interested in hearing the varying opinions on systems out there. As a side note I think the Red Sox are the most underrated system (although I think the A's system is stronger than the Sox's)

21-30

Birdfan01 — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 19:24:05 -0000

21. Garabez Rosa- SS, 19, Grade- C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
RC (GCL)	185	330	8	4	1	26	339	470	809	4	2
NY Penn	20	250	0	0	2		318	250	568	0	1

To be honest I don’t know much about Rosa besides his stats. I haven’t seen him play and I have not read anything about him. The Orioles do not have a very good track record of finding talent in Latin America, but they may have something in Rosa, who they signed out of the Dominican Republic. At 6’2” Rosa is very big for a shortstop, but he only weighs 166 lbs! As he grows into his frame it is possible that he could outgrow the position, but he could also grow into some power. He already shows a very strong hit tool, hitting .330 in the Gulf Coast League. However he is far from a polished offensive product. One look at his stats shows that he has very little plate discipline, walking only 3 times in over 200 at-bats. It will be very hard to hit for a high average while consistently extending the strike zone.

Rosa is likely too raw for a full-season assignment and should play in the NY Penn League in 2009. I’m very intrigued to read more about him, and hopefully see him play in 2009.

22. Wilfredo Perez- LHP, 24, Grade- C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Hi A (Car)	56.1	2.88	44	30	69	5	1.88	11	218
AA (Eas)	23.1	2.31	16	8	23	1	1.14	9	195

Perez is another one of my favorite prospects in the O’s system. Perez is extremely slender at only 145 pounds. He is a left-handed reliever who throws a fastball consistently 89-91. He combines that with a filthy curveball. As his very strong batting average against and K/9 number indicate Wilfredo can be a hitter’s nightmare, often making hitters looks silly.

Perez struggles with control and command, and is not particular dominant against lefties. Lefties hit 253 against Perez in 2008 compared to a 192 clip by righties. This trend held true in 2007 as well. Unfortunately for the Orioles, unless Perez improves against lefties he will not be effective as a lefty specialist. With that being said Perez has tremendous stuff and should be a useful piece in a major league bullpen.

23. Bradley Bergesen- RHP, 23, C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Hi A (Car)	17.1	2.08	15	6	15	2	3.38	7.79	227
AA (Eas)	148	3.22	143	27	72	11	1.38	4.37	253

The Orioles’ pitcher of the year in 2008 Bergesen had a tremendous year. Prior to 2008 Bergesen had struggled as a pro, since being drafted in the 4th round of the 2005 draft. Bergesen features a low 90’s FB, often sitting at 90-91 with solid life. He complements his heater with a slider and a change. The slider is more advanced than the change at this point. Bergesen pitches to contact and tries to keep the ball on the ground, but his GO/AO ratios have been hovering just below 1.5 the last two years. That is good, but not great, especially for a pitcher who makes his living by keeping the ball on the ground.

While its clear that Bergesen is not as good as his 3.22 ERA indicates, I think he can find a place in the majors. Many of his detractors point to his 4.4 K/9 in AA this year and argue that is simply too low to find success in the majors. While that is true Bergesen is still young enough to improve that number. If he can raise that to about 5.5 he could fit as a 5 starter who lives by keeping the ball on the ground. If that doesn’t happen I still think Bergesen could fit as a long man out of the pen. Bergesen will move to AAA in 2009, and will likely make his major league debut at some point during the season.

24. Justin Turner- 2B, 24, C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
Hi A (FSL)	136	316	8	0	12	19	384	390	774	3	1
AA (Sou)	280	289	14	8	33	54	359	432	792	2	1

AFL 89 337 7 1 4 18 362 449

Turner was acquired, along with Ryan Freel and Brandon Warring, from the Reds in the Ramon Hernandez trade. Turner is a grinder who doesn’t posses a ton of tools, but finds a way to get the job done. He doesn’t have much power, but everywhere he went in 2008 he hit for a high average, including the Arizona Fall League. He doesn’t walk much, but he makes a lot of contact, and gets on base enough to profile at the top of the order. Unfortunately he doesn’t have much speed so it is more likely that turner could find himself at the bottom of the order in the big leagues.

Turner is just average defensively at second, and he lacks the arm and range to play short which hurts his ability to be a utility man, but he should have value nonetheless. I don’t think he has the tools to hack it at 2nd full-time in the big leagues, but he is close to big-league ready, and could fill in for a couple months if Roberts is dealt.

25. John Mariotti- RHP, 24, C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Lo A (SAL)	33.2	3.74	27	7	26	2	5.64	6.95	213

Mariotti is a prospect that I think is a major sleeper. The Orioles’ 18th round in 2007 out of Coastal Carolina College. He was old for the sally league, but had an absolutely ridiculous GO/AO ratio. That 5.64 is not a typo, and last year it was even higher at 5.92! He battled through injuries in 2008 compiling only 33.2 innings, but he should be healthy in 2009, and I’m very excited to see what he can do if he can stay healthy for a full year. If he stays healthy he should at least be able to fit into a major league pen as a right-handed specialist who can come in and keep the ball on the ground.

26. Jason Berken- RHP, 25, C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (Eas)	145.2	3.58	141	38	125	9	1.03	7.72	255

Berken pitched alongside Tillman, Hendandez, and Bergesen this year at AA. The oldest member of the quartet, Berken put up solid numbers including an impressive 7.7 K/9. Berken was the Orioles’ 6th round pick in 2006 draft out of Clemson. At only 6’0” Berken does not have a durable starters frame, but since signing Berken has been a workhorse. Throwing 161.3 innings in 2007 and 145.2 last season. Berken profiles as a back-end of the rotation innings eater.

He gets outs with control and command at this point, posting an impressive 2.3 BB/9, rather than with pure stuff. Berken sits in the low 90s with his FB, features an average slider, and a change. Some may argue that Berken is a better prospect than Bergesen due to his similar success at AA, and with a much better ability to miss bats. But Bergesen is two years younger, and I think long-term he has the better chance of cutting it in a starting role.

27. Greg Miclat- SS, 21, C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
NY Penn	55	291	2	0	8	13	391	327	718	3	2

Miclat is a favorite sleeper among many Oriole fans. The O’s 5th round pick out of Virginia in this years draft is a solid defensive short stop, and possesses some good speed. He suffered from an arm injury in college, so the O’s were very cautious with him in his pro debut, but all reports are that he will be 100% healthy in 2009.

While he didn’t show much power in college he is not viewed as a slap hitter. The University of Virginia has a notoriously big home park. Furthermore, their coaches preach using the whole field and using an inside-out swing. Those two factors could be responsible for why Miclat hasn’t shown much power. He will never have a lot of power, but should be a guy who can drive the ball into the gaps. He has very good plate discipline, and understands his game, trying to get on-base and use his speed.

Miclat, besides Rosa, is the only legitimate SS prospect the Orioles have. He is the best defensive SS in the organization, and should start 2009 at Lo A Delmarva.

28. Kyle Hudson- CF, 22, C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
NY Penn	37	216	1	0	8	12	356	243	599	4	3

Hudson is another exceptional athlete from the Orioles’ 2008 draft. The 4th rounder out of the University of Illinois, Hudson played on the Illini football team where he returned punts. He has top end speed, and because of that he has tremendous range in center. He reminds me a lot of Juan Pierre. He has very little power, but he understands that and tries to keep the ball on the ground and use his speed.

Unfortunately for Hudson and the Orioles he broke his wrist sliding headfirst into second this year. He should be healthy for 2009, but wrist injuries are always tricky, and can linger. Hopefully he will be healthy in 2009. With his speed he should be valuable as a defensive replacement and pinch runner, even if the bat doesn’t come around.

29. Richard Zagone- LHP, 22, C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
NY Penn	65.1	2.89	57	14	79	2	1.63	10.88	236

Zagone put up great numbers in the NY Penn League after being taken in the 6th round out of the University of Missouri. Although his numbers look great, that is more a reflection of an advanced pitcher exploiting younger competition than it is of Zagone’s stuff. Zagone sits in the upper 80s with his fastball, and complements that with an ordinary slider and a change. Although his stuff isn’t great, the fastball has some life, and he has very good command, which helps his stuff play up.

As Zagone advances that K/9 will surely decrease, but with his advanced pitchability he could continue to find success. Zagone could profile as a backend of the rotation starter, but it is more likely that he could find himself in a major league bullpen. He had a lot of success against lefties in his pro debut, and could be rise through the system quickly if the Orioles decide to move him to the pen.

30. Matt Angle- CF, 23, C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
Low A (SAL)	478	287	22	4	71	86	385	379	764	37	11

One look at Angle’s numbers shows you what type of player he is. He is a grinder who tries to get on-base and use his speed to set the table for his offense. He has very solid plate discipline and an advanced approach at the plate. He has good but not great speed, but gets solid jumps on the base-paths allowing him to steal at a respectable 77% last year. He is a very good bunter, and has some gap power. He played last season as a 22 year old in Lo A, so he was a bit old for the league.

While I don’t think Angle has the tools to hold down a starting job in the majors, his speed and discipline could make him a valuable 4th or 5th outfielder. The former 7th round pick out of Ohio St. has impressed as a pro, and I’m interested to see how he holds up against better competition as he moves forward.

11-20

Birdfan01 — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 19:21:07 -0000

11. Kam Mickolio- RHP, 24, Grade- C+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (EAS)	38.1	4.7	39	22	40	2	1.7	9.39	262
AAA (INTL)	20	1.8	13	9	23	0	1.57	10.35	173
MLB	7.2	5.87	8	4	8	2	0.67	9.39	267

When one looks at Mickolio’s numbers, ranking him at number 11 seems way too high, but his numbers tell only half of his story. Mickolio went to a high school in Montana that did not offer baseball, and only began playing baseball the summer after his junior year for an American Legion team. Since being drafted by the Mariners in the 18th round of the 2006 draft Mickolio has made tremendous strides for someone with such a limited baseball background.

Mickolio features a true upper 90s fastball, a sweeping slider, and a change that is little more than a show-me pitch at this point. The slider tends to flatten out, but can be devastating when it gets a little depth to it. One of the reasons Mickolio is such an intriguing prospect is that he stands a gigantic 6’10! He combines this huge frame with a very unorthodox delivery. His front foot strides towards the back of a right-handed hitter, instead of towards the plate, and then he throws from a ¾ arm slot. The result is that the ball is released way behind a right-handed hitter and cuts across the pate. This makes the ball very hard to pick up out of Mickolio’s hand. One might suspect that this unorthodox delivery would make Mickolio susceptible to lefties, but the difference in his splits is fairly negligible. Lefties hit .248 against Mickolio as opposed to .222, and they even strike out at a slightly higher rate.

Some project that Mickolio could eventually find himself in a closer’s role, but I don’t think his command will ever be good enough to handle the closer’s role. Furthermore, even though lefties have not yet caused Mickolio a tremendous amount of trouble they certainly could at the major league level. I see Mickolio settling into a 7th/8th inning long-term and having a very successful career.

12. Nolan Reimold- RF/LF, 25, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
AA (Eas)	507	284	29	25	63	82	367	501	868
AFL	92	261	8	4	11	20	352	478	830

In my opinion Reimold is the most overrated prospect in the Orioles’ system. Although he put up pretty good numbers this year at AA, it is certainly worth noting that he was 25. Reimold reminds me a bit of Brady Clark, the former Brewers outfielder, in that both are righties with a mechanical swing. Watching Reimold play he lacks plate coverage to drive balls to the opposite field. Advance scouts should exploit this when he makes it to the majors. Furthermore, while he is pretty athletic and has an average arm he is not a good defender.

Although Reimold has his share of shortcomings, he has value. He has good plate discipline, and pretty good pitch recognition skills which allow him to make solid contact. Furthermore, at 6’4 he has tremendous power, as evidenced by 57 extra-base hits this year at AA. He hits lefties well, although he did not have a tremendous amount of success against them this year. Throughout his minor league career he has showed good power against lefties, and I think down the road I think he will ultimately become an outfielder who platoons against lefties.

13. Bobby Bundy- RHP, 19, Grade- C+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
RC GCL	2	9	5	0	4	1	0	18	455

Coming into the 2008 season, some projected Bundy as a possible first round pick. However when Bundy tore a ligament in his knee during a basketball game that opportunity went out the window. Pitching with a knee brace Bundy saw his velocity drop from the mid-90s to the low 90’s and upper 80’s, according to Baseball America. This drop in velocity combined with a commitment to Arkansas caused Bundy to slip all the way to the 8th round where he received a 600,000 from the Orioles.

Early reports are that Bundy’s velocity has returned. Combine that solid fastball with a true 12-6 curveball, and Bundy appears to be a very good prospect, and a possible draft-day steal. I am interested to see whether the Orioles believe he is advanced to handle a full-season assignment in 2009.

14. Xavier Avery- CF, 19, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
RC (GCL)	175	280	8	0	10	51	333	337	670	13	3

Avery is one of the best athletes, not just in the Orioles’ system, but in all of baseball. An exception high school football player he was a 4-star recruit set to attend Georgia before he turned pro for 900,000, as the second round pick of the Orioles. The Orioles envision Avery becoming a dynamic player who uses his speed to play an exceptional centerfield, and to wreck havoc on the basepaths. However he is not just a slap hitter. Although he did not hit a homer as a professional, he is projected to develop the ability to drive the ball as gets more and more baseball experience.

As Avery’s numbers indicate he is extremely raw. He struck out 51 times in only 175 at-bats, so obviously his pitch-recognition skills need to improve. Although his numbers do not seem to be overly impressive, when one considers the magnitude of the jump between the competition that Avery faced in high-school and what he faced in professional ball, the 280 average and 333 on-base percentage that Avery posted are pretty impressive.

Avery isn’t advanced enough to go to full-season ball, but should play at Aberdeen in the NY Penn league next season.

15. Chorye Spoone- RHP, 23, Grade- C+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (EAS)	41.1	4.57	40	27	32	4	2.38	6.97	252

Spoone may have had the most disappointing 2008 of any Oriole farmhand. Coming into the year Spoone was a very popular breakout candidate, and rightfully so. When Spoone is healthy he misses bats with a mid-90s FB with good late life, and a sharp downer curve. Not only does Spoone do a good job of missing bats, but he also does an exceptional job of keeping the ball on the ground.

Unfortunately for Spoone he tore his labrum early in 2008. The labrum tear is one of the hardest injuries for pitchers to comeback from. Many pitchers who suffer the labrum tear never regain their former velocity. I have not heard any report on how Spoone is progressing in his rehab, but even if everything goes according to plan Spoone will not be pitching in games until July or August.

Before the injury I would have given Spoone a B, but anything more than a C+ is too high with the severity of his injury.

16. Tyler Henson- 3B, 21, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
Lo A (SAL)	502	265	25	11	25	121	310	392	702	20	3
Hawaiian WL	124	266	13	1	25	44	384	444	828	3	1

Henson is one of my favorite prospects in the Orioles’ system. An exceptional athlete- he was the starting quarterback on the state championship winning high school team in Oklahoma, and he started at point on the basketball team. He was drafted as a shortstop, but has moved to third since signing. He has the arm, range, and adequate hands to man the hot corner, but there is some question as to whether he will develop the bat for the position.

I think he will. His plate discipline obviously needs to improve. He walked only 25 times in 502 at bats at low A. That lack of discipline will be exploited at higher levels. Henson did match that walk total in only 124 at bats in the Hawaiian winter league, but his discipline deteriorated as time went on. It is encouraging to see that Henson seems to be working to improve his plate-discipline. If Henson can learn to control the zone he should grow into a solid offensive player. He possess a wiry strong frame, similar to that of Ryan Braun. He doesn’t have the power of Braun, but he does have the ability to hit the ball out to any part of the park. In addition to solid raw power Henson is an exceptional base-stealer. He isn’t a burner, but he picks his spots well as evidence by his extremely high success rate.

It will be interesting to see where Henson plays next season. Billy Rowell will most likely return to Frederick in 2009, so unless he moves to right or first Henson will be blocked. A repeat of Delmarva would not be the worst thing for Henson as he could hone his discipline, but he is advanced enough to hack it at high A. It might take Henson a while to reach his ceiling, but I think will eventually become a 5 at third.

17. L.J. Hoes- 2B, 19, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
RC (GCL)	159	308	4	1	30	22	416	390	806	10	0

Another very good athlete, the Orioles selected Hoes in the third round this year’s draft. Hoes was thought to be a tough sign as he was committed to UNC, but he may have given the Orioles a bit of a hometown discount, Hoes is from the DC area, signing for 490,000.

In high school Hoes played center, but he lacks the top end speed to play there in the pros, so after signing the Orioles moved him to second. Learning to turn the double play and some of the other finer arts of second may take some time for Hoes to perfect, but his bat seems to be very advanced for a high school kid. He has a tremendous eye at the plate, walking 30 times in only 159 at-bats. He also appears to be an extremely proficient base-stealer. He doesn’t have top-end speed, but he wasn’t caught as a pro, stealing ten bases. According to Baseball America Hoes doesn’t have any plus tool, but he has average tools across the board. While he hit for a high average as a pro, he didn’t show much power, slugging only 390.

Hoes is very advanced for a high school hitter and could handle a full-season assignment. It is more likely, however, that the Orioles stay cautious and put him I the NY Penn league. If Hoes learns to play second, and shows some power he could quickly become a very good prospect.

18. Ryan Adams- 2B, 22, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
Low A (SAL)	448	308	26	11	36	109	367	462	829	12	5

Adams can flat out hit. The Orioles took him out of a Louisiana high school in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft. Adams has great hand-eye coordination, and shows a very good ability to square the ball up, as evidenced by his line-drive percentage of 18. He also show surprising pop, 42 extra-base hits in 448 at-bats. Adams needs to work on plate discipline and pitch recognition. He struck out in almost a quarter of his at bats which is way too much, especially for someone who does not profile as a power hitter.

In addition to his high K-rate, his defense at second was nothing short of atrocious in 2008. He committed 46 errors in only 96 games! There is some silver lining in that most of those errors were of the throwing variety, which seems to be more correctable. Adams is fairly athletic and could move to center if his defensive woes continue.

I really like Adams’ bat a lot. I think he will straighten out his defense enough to be adequate, and I think he can hit around .300 at the major league level. He’ll have enough power to make his below-average defense acceptable.

19. Tony Butler- LHP, 21, Grade- C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
LoA (SAL)	55	4.42	59	11	44	7	0.84	7.2	273

Butler was acquired from the Mariners in the Erik Bedard deal. At 6’7” the southpaw is a very imposing figure on the mound. The problem for Butler in 2008 was that he was not able to stay on the mound. He returned from injury in June, only to return to the DL by mid June for the rest of the season. I believe he suffered from tendonitis, but I am not sure. At any rate the injury is not supposed to affect 2009.

When Butler is going right he combines a low 90’s FB, a big breaking curve, and a change. The change lags behind the other two pitches at this point. Reports are that Butler’s velocity was down a couple mph this season, but that could be due to the injury. He showed a strong K/BB ratio of 4 in 2008, an encouraging sign going forward.

Butler is mostly projection right now. With his big frame he could grow into a couple mph and really come on strong in 2009. Furthermore, Butler seemed to have better command in 2008 than he had shown previously. The velo drop is a cause for concern though, and if he can’t regain it, it will be hard for him to have success at higher levels. Butler has the ceiling to fit in as high as 2nd or 3rd in a major league rotation. Although the chances that he reaches that are small.

20. Oliver Drake- RHP, 22, Grade- C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
RC (APP)	11.2	0.77	7	2	11	1	0.53	9	167
NY Penn	10.1	0.87	9	1	13	0	1.11	11.32	214

Drake could have been a draft-day steal. He fell all the way to the 43rd round as a draft-eligible sophomore. Because he attended the Naval Academy many teams did not think he would be able to sign. Obviously he received his release, and had a tremendous pro debut. He pitched in relief allowing a total of two earned runs in 23 innings.

John is obviously a big fan as he gave Drake a C+, but I think that is a little too bullish. He was pitching against younger competition, and was pitching out of relief. I have not see Drake, but Baseball America reports that he features a low 90’s FB with good life, a plus slider, and a rudimentary curve and change.

From his numbers Drake obviously has a chance. At 6’4” he has the durable frame to become a useful starter, but he lacks the third pitch at this point in time. I don’t feel comfortable giving drake a higher grade until he succeeds as a starter, against older competition, and there is a bigger sample size. Drake should start 2009 at Lo A as a starter.

Orioles Prospects 1-10

Birdfan01 — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 19:17:57 -0000

For Comparison’s Sake:

Baseball America: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267134.html

John’s Top 20: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/18/665005/baltimore-orioles-top-20-p

Note- All ages are of opening day this year

1. Matt Wieters- C, 22, Bats S, Grade- A

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
Hi A (Car)	229	345	8	15	44	47	448	576	1024	1	2
AA (Eas)	208	365	14	12	38		460	625	1085	1	0
AFL	73	301	5	1	12	16	407	438	845	1	0

I won't spend a lot of time on Matt, because everyone on this site already knows that he is one of the best prospects in baseball. Drafted out of Georgia Tech with the 5th Overall pick, in the 2007 draft, after being inexplicably passed up by 4 teams, Matt has done nothing but rake since signing. At the plate Matt profiles as a middle of the order run producer. Wieters controls the strike zone extremely well, as he has walked more than he has stuck out as a professional, but does not seem passive at the plate and pounces on mistakes. The switch-hitting catcher shows prodigious power and a sound swing from both sides of the plate.

Defensively Matt has drawn rave reviews for the way in which he has handled his pitchers. He has a cannon for an arm, and routinely posts pop times at or below 2 seconds flat. His arm strength has never been in question, as he was the close at Georgia Tech, having his fastball routinely clocked in the low-90s. At 6'5" 230 scouts show some concern as to how Wieters' huge frame will hold up behind the plate, but for now it seems that he is capable of playing above average defense behind the plate.

After trading Ramon Hernandez earlier this off-season the stage is set for Wieters to make his major league debut. The only question now is whether that debut will come on opening day, or whether to Orioles will opt to save some service time and start him at AAA to begin the 2009 campaign. Regardless of where he starts Wieters is the front runner for American Rookie of the Year.

2. Chris Tillman- RHP, 20, Grade- A-

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (Eas)	135.2	3.18	115	64	154	10	0.82	10.2	227

Tillman, acquired from Seattle in the Eric Bedard deal, had a huge year in AA. While he catches a lot of flak from many posters on this board due to shaky FB command and a BB/9 rate of 4.3, I think many need to take a step back and put things in perspective. Tillman pitched most of the year as the youngest pitcher in the Eastern League and dominated. Striking out more than a batter and inning and holding opponents to a measly .227 batting average against. While improving his FB command will be imperative to his success at higher levels it is by no means abnormal for a 20 year old to struggle with command. Locating his FB more effectively should also improve Tillman's GO/AO ratio, which was too low at .82 this past season.

Tillman features a prototypical starter's body at 6'5". He only currently weighs 195 pounds, and scouts are salivating at the prospect that he could pick up a little velo as his body matures. Tillman currently sits in the low to mid 90's, features a devastating curveball, and a change that is progressing. Aside from his fastball command, the only thing that is holding Tillman back is developing more confidence is his change to give him the three pitch arsenal essential to a starter's success in the big leagues.

Look for the Orioles to move Tillman along very carefully. They are very mindful of not repeating the same mistakes made with other Orioles' pitching prospects such as Hayden Penn and Adam Loewen, who were rushed through the minors. Ideally Tillman would get at least a full year at AAA, but with the Orioles' lack of pitching at the major league level their hand could be forced, and Tillman could debut sometime late in the year.

3. Brian Matusz- LHP, 22, Grade- B+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AFL	26.2	4.73	26	7	31	6	1.67	10.5	250

The Orioles plucked the left-handed starter out of the University of San Diego with the 4th overall pick in the 2008 draft. Just like Tillman, at 6'5" 200 Matusz possesses an ideal pitcher's frame, but he is more polished than Tillman. Matusz already features 4 pitches grading out as at least average. Matusz's fastball sits in the low 90's, and while it does not light up radar guns it has a fair amount of life to it. Many scouts believe Matusz did not use his FB enough in college, so like many college pitchers he may look to use it a bit more as a pro, now that he no longer has to contend with metal bats. Matusz also uses a curve and a slider, the curve rating as a plus pitch, and the slider as average or slightly above depending upon who you listen to. Matusz's best pitch is his change which he throws with solid arm speed and shows good depth. Many scouts who are bullish on Matusz compare him to another lefty from Southern California, Cole Hamels.

While few scouts question his stuff, buth there are a few concerns about Matusz's delivery. Baseball America's draft preview described Matusz's arm action as: "slightly awkward", and were concerned with the fact that he often lands on a stiff front leg. Matusz has been durable in college, and he certainly has the frame to handle a starter's workload, so many believe he will hold up physically (knock on wood).

Matusz's starting point has been the subject of much debate. Despite the rust, in the 7 appearances Matusz made in the Arizona Fall League, he pitched fairly well striking out 10.5 per 9. This success against very good competition, in a league typically unforgiving of pitchers, has led many to believe that Matusz is advanced enough to start the year at AA. His assignment will be dictated by his performance in spring training, but with no rush I forsee Matusz starting in Frederick and being promoted to AA at the Carolina League all-star break.

4. Jake Arrieta- RHP, 23, Grade- B+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Hi A (Car)	113	2.87	80	51	120	7	1.14	9.56	199

Arrieta entered his junior season at Texas Christian University with 1st round aspirations, but when his velo dropped during the season he slid to the 5th round where the Orioles happy selected him, paying him a bonus of 1.1 million. Since this signing Arrieta has done nothing, but make that signing bonus look like a bargain. He went to the AFL after signing and did not allow a run while pitching in relief. Building off that success this year Arrieta dominated the Carolina Leauge, and played on USA's Olympic team this summer, and was the only member of the team who played below AA during the season.

Arrieta's velo has returned as a pro. His FB sat in the mid 90's this season. Coupling that with a devastating slider, and a change-up that that shows the potential to become above average and Arrieta shows the potential to have 3 plus pitches. At 6'4" 225 Arrieta not only has the ability to handle Tillman and Matusz in the post, but also possesses a big durable pitchers body.

A recent report by Roch Kubatko, a local sportswriter, said that the Orioles would be more willing to deal Tillman than Arrieta. Obviously the Orioles are not in a position that dictates trading either would be a good idea, but I find it hard to believe that the O's are higher on Arrieta than Tillman. With Arrieta's success in the Carolina league and then in Beijing he should begin 2009 in AA, and could be promoted to AAA before the year is out.

5. Brandon Erbe- RHP, 21, Grade- B

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Hi A (Car)	150.2	4.3	120	50	151	21	0.75	9	216

The Orioles selected the local product in the 3rd round of the 2005 draft, out of McDonough High School in Owings Mills, MD. Erbe is one of the most erratic pitchers in all of the minors. One game he will be dominant, the next he will get lit. Much of Erbe's long-term success will be dictated by how much consistency he can generate. He has all the physical tools he needs to be a solid major league starter- a fastball that consistently sits in the low-to-mid 90s, a slider, that at times, can absolutely fall off the table, and a developing change. I was in attendance when Erbe no hit Wilmington over the 7 innings he pitched. That night he had three major league pitches. As Erbe moves forward he needs to learn to get through outings when he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Like a lot of young pitchers Erbe needs to improve his command. While 3 BB/9 isn’t bad, Erbe struggled to command his fastball throughout the season, and when he left it up it was hit hard, as his 21 HRs allowed attests to. This large number of homers led to an ERA that was higher than it should have been. According to minorleaguesplits, when luck is accounted for Erbe should have only given up 12 HRs, and his FIP falls from 4.29 to 3.53. Furthermore, Erbe has not been homer prone in the past, giving up 14 last year in 114 innings, and only 1 in over 90 innings in 2006. This evidence suggests that Erbe is not homer prone and merely suffered from some bad luck this year.

6. Brandon Snyder- 1B, 22, Grade- B-

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
Hi A (Car)	435	315	33	13	29	83	358	490	848
AFL	63	349	8	4	6	9	431	667	1098

Snyder, who the Orioles selected in the first round of the 2005 draft, had an offensive resurgence in 2008. After winning the Hawaiian Winter League batting title in the off-season, Snyder built off that success and hit well over 300 in both the Carolina League and the Arizona Fall League. Drafted as a catcher and later moved to third, Snyder had failed to live up to his first round billing with either his glove or his bat until this season. While his permanent move to first this season means that he will have to really hit to have value going forward, his bat has the potential to play at first in the big leagues.

Snyder has a good swing that generates line-drives to all fields. According to minorleaguesplits.com Snyder has put up line-drive % of 21.4 and 17.4 the last two seasons. Some question whether Snyder will ever develop the power necessary to play first base, as he only hit 13 HRs this year, but as Snyder gets stronger and learns to drive the ball a bit more he should be able to turn some of his 2Bs, 33 this year, into HRs. The other major question surrounding Snyder is his lack of plate discipline. He only took 29 walks this year, and seeing him play several times this season he often had trouble with off-speed stuff down-and-out of the zone. At 22 he will move up to AA next year, and if he does not develop an ability to control the strike-zone he will be exploited. Snyder’s performance at AA will be extremely telling. If he can improve his pitch-recognition skills, learn to take a few more walks, and turn a few doubles into homers he will become a very solid prospect.

Snyder profiles as a below average defensive first baseman who should hit around 300 with 20 homers.

7. Troy Patton- LHP, 23, Grade- B-

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (Tex)	102.1	2.99	96	33	68	10	NA	5.96	238
AAA (PCL)	49	4.59	44	11	25	5	NA	4.59	230

MAJ 12.2 3.55 10 4 8 3 NA 5.68 208

- Stats from 2007, Patton did not pitch in 2008 due to injury

Patton was the best prospect that the Orioles got back from Houston in the Miguel Tejada trade, but he quickly went down with a torn labrum in spring training. After the trade he was ranked as the Orioles’ 3rd prospect by Baseball America. Before the injury many thought that Patton had a good shot to make the Orioles’ rotation. Patton doesn’t have tremendous stuff- a FB that sits in the low 90’s, a slider, and a change that shows good life, but his pitches all play up because of his very solid command. The labrum tear is a very scary injury for pitchers as it often saps them of some velo, but early reports are that Patton is feeling good.

Looking at his numbers some may be concerned with his low K/9 rates, but he was pitching as a 21 year old all the way up to the big leagues. In 2006 he posted a K/9 of 8.6 in Hi A and Lo A, against competition closer to his age.

After the injury caused Patton to miss all of 2008, the Orioles may elect to give him some time in AAA, but if he is healthy he will certainly be one of the Orioles’ better starting options. He probably doesn’t have the stuff to be more than a 3, but should be a solid starter who keeps his team in games.

8. Billy Rowell- 3B, 20, Grade- B-

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
Hi A (Car)	375	248	24	7	36	104	315	368	683

I’m well aware that this grade will be perceived as being way too generous, but I’m a big believer in Rowell’s bat. As a pro Rowell has not yet shown the power that made him a first round pick in the 2006 draft. Last year Rowell put up a slugging percentage of .426, and this year that dropped to a measly 368. Although the numbers don’t support it Rowell has a tremendous offensive ceiling. Hi He has a sweet swing from the left side, although it can get a bit long at times, that produces light tower power. When Rowell squares the ball up it makes a different sound coming off his bat. Even though he is extremely young, playing the entire year at 19, he shows a willingness to go the other way.

I think a lot of Rowell’s offensive struggles this season should be chalked up to the fact that he was simply in over his head in the Carolina league. At 19 he should have repeated Low A, instead he was rushed before he was ready, and it showed. His swing needs to be shortened just a tad, and he needs to learn to turn on some inside mistakes.

Some of Rowell’s deficiencies can be attributed to his youth, but some cannot. He is a bit of a butcher at third, lacking both the hands and range to play there going forward. He has a very strong arm, so I think a move to right may be his long-term home. He could end up, defensively, very similarly to Aubrey Huff, who plays some third, first, and earlier in his career, right. In addition to defensive issues there have been reports that Rowell may have some makeup issues. Apparently he was reluctant to give up his personal hitting coach, and that did not sit well with the Orioles.

I’m not ready to give up on Rowell. I don’t think he will ever be the star many envisioned when he was drafted, but I still think the bat will play, whether that is at 1st, DH, or a corner outfield spot is yet to be determined. It’s easy to forget, but the kid just turned 20. He’s 6’5” and just growing into his frame, give him time.

9. Zach Britton- LHP, 21, Grade- B-

League	IP	ERA	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
LoA (SAL)	147.1	3.12	49	114	9	2.81	6.96	219

The O’s plucked Britton out of a Texas high school in the 3rd round of the 2006 draft. The 6’2” lefty features a fastball that sits in the low 90s, a solid curveball, and an emerging change. I have not seen Britton pitch, but judging from his very solid 2.81 GO/AO ratio, his fastball must have good downward movement. Combine his ability to keep the ball on the ground with an average ability miss bats, and Britton looks to be a very solid prospect. Although, according to minorleaguesplits.com, Britton was lucky to post a batting average against of only 219, Ks and groundouts are a recipe for success at any level.

Another encouraging sign in Britton’s statistics is his ability to dominate lefties. Lefties hit .176 against Britton, and Britton posted a K/9 of 9.24 against lefthanders. This seems to indicate that even if Britton’s change does not progress enough to give him a three-pitch arsenal he could be a useful part of a major league bullpen.

Britton will move to Hi A next year, and he will need to maintain his K/9 rate to continue to have success, because anything less than seven at high A would be cause for concern. Britton profiles as a 3 or 4 starter down the road.

10. David Hernandez- RHP, 23, Grade- C+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (EAS)	141	2.68	114	71	166	10	0.74	10.6	217

Hernandez is one of the more interesting prospects in all of the minor leagues. He put up exceptional numbers this year at AA, most notably winning the Eastern league strikeout crown with 166 Ks in 141 innings. Although Hernandez has put up great strikeout numbers his stuff, according to most scouts, doesn’t indicate that he should generate so many whiffs. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he features a good slider, and a change.

Hernandez’s control has been a problem throughout his career. His BB/9 of 4.5 this year needs to be improved. Although his ERA was much lower this year than last (2.68 vs. 4.95), it appears that some of that has to do with luck. His walk rate shot up almost 2 full walks per 9 from 2.7 last year, and it seems that his ERA was kept down by a 217 batting average against. That BAA doesn’t seem sustainable as his career mark is around 250. Furthermore, I am concerned about his low GO/AO ratio. A fly-ball pitcher with a high walk rate seems like a recipe for the 3-run homer.

Still his K/9 rate is extremely impressive. Unless Hernandez can improve his control I think he is destined for a role in the bullpen. He could be very effective there with his FB slider combo, but with the Orioles’ lack of starters they will give Hernandez every opportunity to start. Hernandez is a wildcard who could surprise us all and make it as a starter. He will begin 2009 at AAA, and could make his major league debut at some point during the year.

21-30

Birdfan01 — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 18:18:16 -0000

21. Garabez Rosa- SS, 19, Grade- C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
RC (GCL)	185	330	8	4	1	26	339	470	809	4	2
NY Penn	20	250	0	0	2		318	250	568	0	1

Rosa is likely too raw for a full-season assignment and should play in the NY Penn League in 2009. I’m very intrigued to read more about him, and hopefully see him play in 2009.

22. Wilfredo Perez- LHP, 24, Grade- C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Hi A (Car)	56.1	2.88	44	30	69	5	1.88	11	218
AA (Eas)	23.1	2.31	16	8	23	1	1.14	9	195

23. Bradley Bergesen- RHP, 23, C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Hi A (Car)	17.1	2.08	15	6	15	2	3.38	7.79	227
AA (Eas)	148	3.22	143	27	72	11	1.38	4.37	253

24. Justin Turner- 2B, 24, C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
Hi A (FSL)	136	316	8	0	12	19	384	390	774	3	1
AA (Sou)	280	289	14	8	33	54	359	432	792	2	1

AFL 89 337 7 1 4 18 362 449 811 3 1

25. John Mariotti- RHP, 24, C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Lo A (SAL)	33.2	3.74	27	7	26	2	5.64	6.95	213

26. Jason Berken- RHP, 25, C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (Eas)	145.2	3.58	141	38	125	9	1.03	7.72	255

27. Greg Miclat- SS, 21, C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
NY Penn	55	291	2	0	8	13	391	327	718	3	2

Miclat, besides Rosa, is the only legitimate SS prospect the Orioles have. He is the best defensive SS in the organization, and should start 2009 at Lo A Delmarva.

28. Kyle Hudson- CF, 22, C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
NY Penn	37	216	1	0	8	12	356	243	599	4	3

29. Richard Zagone- LHP, 22, C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
NY Penn	65.1	2.89	57	14	79	2	1.63	10.88	236

30. Matt Angle- CF, 23, C

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
Low A (SAL)	478	287	22	4	71	86	385	379	764	37	11

11-20

Birdfan01 — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 18:15:40 -0000

11. Kam Mickolio- RHP, 24, Grade- C+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (EAS)	38.1	4.7	39	22	40	2	1.7	9.39	262
AAA (INTL)	20	1.8	13	9	23	0	1.57	10.35	173
MLB	7.2	5.87	8	4	8	2	0.67	9.39	267

12. Nolan Reimold- RF/LF, 25, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
AA (Eas)	507	284	29	25	63	82	367	501	868
AFL	92	261	8	4	11	20	352	478	830

13. Bobby Bundy- RHP, 19, Grade- C+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
RC GCL	2	9	5	0	4	1	0	18	455

14. Xavier Avery- CF, 19, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
RC (GCL)	175	280	8	0	10	51	333	337	670	13	3

Avery isn’t advanced enough to go to full-season ball, but should play at Aberdeen in the NY Penn league next season.

15. Chorye Spoone- RHP, 23, Grade- C+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (EAS)	41.1	4.57	40	27	32	4	2.38	6.97	252

Before the injury I would have given Spoone a B, but anything more than a C+ is too high with the severity of his injury.

16. Tyler Henson- 3B, 21, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
Lo A (SAL)	502	265	25	11	25	121	310	392	702	20	3
Hawaiian WL	124	266	13	1	25	44	384	444	828	3	1

17. L.J. Hoes- 2B, 19, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
RC (GCL)	159	308	4	1	30	22	416	390	806	10	0

18. Ryan Adams- 2B, 22, Grade- C+

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
Low A (SAL)	448	308	26	11	36	109	367	462	829	12	5

19. Tony Butler- LHP, 21, Grade- C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
LoA (SAL)	55	4.42	59	11	44	7	0.84	7.2	273

20. Oliver Drake- RHP, 22, Grade- C

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
RC (APP)	11.2	0.77	7	2	11	1	0.53	9	167
NY Penn	10.1	0.87	9	1	13	0	1.11	11.32	214

My Top 30 Orioles Prospects

Birdfan01 — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 18:02:01 -0000

For Comparison’s Sake:

Baseball America: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267134.html

John’s Top 20: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/18/665005/baltimore-orioles-top-20-p

Note- All ages are of opening day this year

Matt Wieters- C, 22, Bats S, Grade- A

League

Abs

BA

2B

HR

BB

SO

OBP

SLG

OPS

SB

CS

Hi A (Car)

229

345

8

15

44

47

448

576

1024

1

2

AA (Eas)

208

365

14

12

38

460

625

1085

1

AFL

73

301

5

1

12

16

407

438

845

1

0

Chris Tillman- RHP, 20, Grade- A-

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (Eas)	135.2	3.18	115	64	154	10	0.82	10.2	227

Brian Matusz- LHP, 22, Grade- B+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AFL	26.2	4.73	26	7	31	6	1.67	10.5	250

Jake Arrieta- RHP, 23, Grade- B+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Hi A (Car)	113	2.87	80	51	120	7	1.14	9.56	199

Brandon Erbe- RHP, 21, Grade- B

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
Hi A (Car)	150.2	4.3	120	50	151	21	0.75	9	216

Brandon Snyder- 1B, 22, Grade- B-

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
Hi A (Car)	435	315	33	13	29	83	358	490	848
AFL	63	349	8	4	6	9	431	667	1098

Snyder profiles as a below average defensive first baseman who should hit around 300 with 20 homers.

Troy Patton- LHP, 23, Grade- B-

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (Tex)	102.1	2.99	96	33	68	10	NA	5.96	238
AAA (PCL)	49	4.59	44	11	25	5	NA	4.59	230

MAJ 12.2 3.55 10 4 8 3 NA 5.68 208

- Stats from 2007, Patton did not pitch in 2008 due to injury

Billy Rowell- 3B, 20, Grade- B-

League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
Hi A (Car)	375	248	24	7	36	104	315	368	683

Zach Britton- LHP, 21, Grade- B-

League	IP	ERA	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
LoA (SAL)	147.1	3.12	49	114	9	2.81	6.96	219

David Hernandez- RHP, 23, Grade- C+

League	IP	ERA	H	BB	SO	HR	GO/AO	K/9	BAA
AA (EAS)	141	2.68	114	71	166	10	0.74	10.6	217

Kam Mickolio- RHP, 24, Grade- C+

League